For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
During the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. coffee market experienced constrained import activity, largely influenced by ongoing yield concerns in major producing countries such as Brazil and Colombia. Adverse weather conditions, including excessive rainfall and irregular temperature patterns, significantly impacted coffee harvests in these key regions, leading to tightened global supply. In the U.S., coffee consumption remained modest, with steady demand from retail and foodservice sectors.
Notably, the U.S. and Canada have witnessed a 16% increase in coffee’s share within the broader hot drinks category over the past three years, reflecting a sustained consumer preference for coffee over other beverages. However, despite stable demand, the market faced added uncertainty due to a lack of regulatory clarity following the imposition of tariffs on imported goods under the administration of former President Donald Trump.
These trade measures, alongside persistent supply-side pressures, contributed to cautious purchasing behavior and volatility in the domestic coffee supply chain, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to both geopolitical and climatic variables.
APAC
In Q1 2025, coffee prices in the APAC region, particularly in India, witnessed a notable upward trend due to escalating global demand and supply-side constraints. January began with strong export momentum—over 9,300 tonnes shipped—amid a growing domestic shift toward coffee consumption. However, production challenges, such as erratic rainfall, high temperatures, and declining soil moisture, especially in Tamil Nadu, weighed heavily on yields. February saw continued price surges driven by reduced output, global supply constraints, and higher input costs. Despite record-high prices, India’s coffee exports are projected to decline by over 10% due to lower carry-over stocks and crop damage. Additionally, key coffee-producing states like Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu suffered from water scarcity and persistent heatwaves, exacerbating the supply gap. This led to rising commodity prices, prompting companies like Nestlé and Britannia to implement price adjustments. Though production for the current crop year may reach 3.5 lakh metric tonnes, robust export demand and climatic pressures are expected to sustain price firmness into March.
Europe
The European coffee market exhibited notable volatility during the first quarter of 2025, influenced by a combination of political instability, economic uncertainty, and supply-side constraints. Political reshuffles in France and Germany—the Eurozone’s two largest economies—have heightened investor and consumer concerns, as disputes between left- and right-wing parties continue to delay and complicate fiscal planning. Despite changes in leadership, several major economies across the region are still grappling with unresolved budget frameworks, with at least four countries yet to submit viable fiscal plans. These unresolved political dynamics have added a layer of unpredictability to market conditions, weighing on both investor confidence and consumer sentiment. On the supply side, European imports of coffee, particularly from Brazil, faced disruptions due to reduced yields stemming from adverse weather conditions. Heavy rainfall and irregular temperature patterns impacted harvests in Brazil, contributing to constrained availability and fluctuating prices across European markets. Overall, the European coffee sector faced a challenging quarter, shaped by both geopolitical headwinds and climatic supply disruptions.
South America
During Q1 2025, coffee prices in South America, particularly in Brazil, experienced a moderate increase, culminating in a notable rise by the end of the quarter. This upward trend was primarily driven by persistent supply-demand imbalances in the market. Severe droughts caused by the El Niño phenomenon significantly damaged coffee crops in key growing regions of Brazil, leading to substantial reductions in production and leaving typically stocked warehouses with minimal inventory. In an effort to meet global demand, Brazilian farmers resorted to costly irrigation practices, further elevating production costs and pushing prices higher. On the demand front, purchasing activity remained relatively stable, with expectations of increased domestic consumption as the Brazilian summer season approached. Despite Brazil’s coffee exports reaching a record 50.15 million bags over the year ending February 2025, February shipments declined amid tightening local stocks and concerns over future harvest yields. These supply-side constraints, coupled with steady demand, have maintained upward pressure on prices and contributed to ongoing tightness in global coffee markets.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American coffee market saw a sharp price increase in Q4 2024, driven by a shortage of imported coffee, particularly from Brazil and Colombia, two of the largest coffee producers globally. Adverse weather conditions in these countries severely disrupted coffee production, intensifying supply shortages and putting upward pressure on prices.
Brazil, which produces around 40% of the world’s coffee, experienced one of the most severe droughts in decades, damaging key arabica-growing regions and drastically reducing crop yields. This prolonged dry spell significantly hampered output, deepening the global supply gap. Similarly, Colombia, another major exporter, faced unfavorable weather including excessive rainfall and landslides, further complicating coffee harvests and exports. These production issues in both Brazil and Colombia have intensified supply constraints in the North American market.
Despite these supply-side challenges, demand for coffee in North America remained steady, with no noticeable spike in consumption. As a result, the combination of tight supply and stable demand has contributed to the upward price trend in the North American coffee market.
Asia- Pacific
Coffee prices in the Asia-Pacific region surged throughout the latter part of 2024, driven by tight supply conditions, robust export demand, and global price trends. Vietnam, the region’s largest coffee producer, saw prices rise due to a supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by adverse weather, including Tropical Storm Trami, which impacted coffee-growing regions. While export volumes decreased by 10.8%, the value of coffee exports increased by 40.1% in October, highlighting stronger prices despite lower shipments. Key markets like Germany, Italy, Spain, the Philippines, and Malaysia reported significant import growth. The coffee harvest in Vietnam was disrupted by persistent off-season rains, particularly in the Central Highlands, delaying the harvest and affecting bean quality. These challenges were compounded by rising NPK fertilizer costs, which further strained production. Despite global coffee price fluctuations, Vietnam's ability to maintain a steady supply positioned it as a key exporter, with forecasted export revenues reaching $5.6 billion in 2024. The region's coffee prices are expected to remain elevated due to continued weather disruptions, tight global supply from major producers like Brazil and Colombia, and steady international demand, reinforcing the Asia-Pacific's growing prominence in the global coffee market.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European coffee market saw a significant price surge, largely driven by acute supply shortages from key global producers, especially Brazil and Vietnam. Adverse weather conditions in these countries heavily impacted coffee production, leading to a tightening of global supplies and upward price pressures. Brazil, which contributes around 40% of global coffee production, suffered from one of its worst droughts in decades, severely affecting arabica coffee-growing regions and causing a notable decline in output. Similarly, Vietnam faced harsh weather patterns, including excessive rainfall and landslides, which devastated coffee-growing areas in the Central Highlands, resulting in crop losses and disrupted exports. Despite these supply-side disruptions, European demand remained stable throughout the quarter, with no significant spikes in consumption. This balance of steady demand and restricted supply has driven increased volatility in European coffee prices. With both Brazil and Vietnam facing ongoing production challenges, the European market remains highly sensitive to these developments, reflecting the persistently tight global supply conditions.
South America
In Q4 2024, coffee prices in South America, particularly in Brazil and Colombia, experienced notable surges, driven by a mix of weather conditions, supply constraints, and strong demand. In Brazil, prices rose due to a growing supply-demand gap, exacerbated by a prolonged drought and the El Niño effect, which stressed coffee trees and limited production. Despite some rainfall in October, the recovery of stressed trees was insufficient, raising concerns about the 2025 crop. Brazil's exports hit record highs, but logistical challenges and rising fertilizer costs further pressured prices. In Colombia, coffee prices also saw an upward trend, with production growth in October and November. The country’s harvest saw a significant rise, reaching 1.76 million 60-kg bags in November, thanks to resilient coffee varieties. However, Colombia faced weather challenges, with dry conditions affecting crop yields. The combination of robust export performance, increased production, and rising input costs contributed to price pressure, while strong seasonal demand from global markets ahead of holidays further supported the trend. Overall, Q4 saw sustained price volatility across South America, with production issues, weather-related disruptions, and strong international demand shaping the coffee market dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American coffee market experienced a significant surge throughout the third quarter of 2024, primarily driven by a shortage of imported coffee from major suppliers, particularly Brazil and Colombia. Adverse weather conditions in these regions severely impacted coffee plantations, restricting global supplies and creating upward pressure on prices. Brazil, which accounts for approximately 40% of the world's coffee production, faced one of the most severe droughts in decades, disrupting its coffee-growing regions and drastically reducing crop yields.
The prolonged dry conditions in Brazil, especially in key arabica coffee-growing areas, have led to a substantial decline in output, further exacerbating supply constraints on the global market. Similarly, Colombia, another significant coffee exporter, experienced unfavorable weather patterns, including excessive rainfall and landslides, that hampered coffee harvests and exports, further tightening supply availability.
Despite these supply-side challenges, demand in the North American coffee market remained relatively modest during the quarter. Consumers maintained steady purchasing patterns, with no significant surge in consumption, as overall demand for coffee in North America remained stable.
Asia
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, coffee prices in Asia experienced a significant surge, with India and Vietnam emerging as the most affected regions. The Vietnamese coffee market, in particular, faced acute shortages that contributed to a pronounced increase in prices. This situation was exacerbated by the impact of Typhoon Yagi, which struck the country earlier this month and severely affected the Central Highlands, the principal coffee-growing area. Initial assessments indicate that thousands of hectares of coffee plantations sustained considerable damage, resulting in substantial losses for both the current harvest and future production prospects. The affected coffee trees, which will require several years to recover fully, have raised concerns about the sustainability of coffee supply from Vietnam in the coming years. The dual challenges of droughts in Brazil and severe typhoons in Vietnam have significantly curtailed coffee production across the region. Brazil, being one of the largest coffee producers globally, has faced persistent drought conditions that have adversely affected crop yields, further tightening the global supply chain. The combined impact of these weather-related disruptions has compelled many major coffee importers to seek alternative sourcing options to meet their demand. In this context, India has emerged as a key supplier, benefiting from the supply shortages in both Brazil and Vietnam. The shift in sourcing dynamics has led to a surge in Indian coffee exports during this period, as importers increasingly turned to Indian coffee as a viable alternative. Indian coffee, particularly robusta varieties, has gained traction in markets that typically relied on Vietnamese arabica, highlighting the adaptability of the global coffee supply chain in response to unforeseen challenges. As per ChemAnalyst, the latest quarter ending price Coffee Robusta FOB Hai Phong (Vietnam) was evaluated at USD 4910/MT.
Europe
The European coffee market witnessed a significant surge throughout the third quarter of 2024, primarily driven by a shortage of imported coffee from major suppliers, notably Brazil and Vietnam. Adverse weather conditions in these regions severely impacted coffee plantations, restricting global supplies and exerting upward pressure on prices. Brazil, which accounts for approximately 40% of the world's coffee production, faced one of the most severe droughts in decades, disrupting its coffee-growing regions and drastically reducing crop yields. The prolonged dry conditions in Brazil, particularly in key arabica coffee-growing areas, resulted in a substantial decline in output, further exacerbating supply constraints in the global market. Similarly, Vietnam, another major coffee exporter, experienced unfavorable weather patterns, including excessive rainfall and landslides, which hampered coffee harvests and exports. The situation was further aggravated by the impact of Typhoon Yagi, which struck the country earlier this month, severely affecting the Central Highlands, the principal coffee-growing region. Initial assessments indicate that thousands of hectares of coffee plantations sustained considerable damage, leading to significant losses for both the current harvest and future production prospects, thereby tightening supply availability even further. Despite these supply-side challenges, demand in the European coffee market remained relatively modest during the quarter. Consumers exhibited steady purchasing patterns, with no significant surge in consumption, as overall demand for coffee in Europe remained stable. This stability in demand, coupled with supply constraints from major exporting countries, has contributed to the dynamic pricing environment in the European coffee market.
South America
Coffee prices surged in the South American market, with Brazil and Colombia emerging as the most affected regions. This price increase was primarily attributed to the widening disparity between demand and supply. Brazil, which accounts for approximately 40% of the world's coffee production, faced one of the most severe droughts in decades, disrupting its coffee-growing regions and drastically reducing crop yields. As the quarter progressed, reports from various market participants indicated that coffee growers in Brazil's key coffee-producing region, São Paulo, are currently assessing the extensive damage caused by recent wildfires, further exacerbating the supply constraints. Similarly, coffee prices in Colombia also experienced a significant surge. Although the country is grappling with adverse weather conditions, the National Federation of Coffee Growers remains optimistic about meeting its production target of 13 million bags for 2024. This optimism reflects a robust commitment to maintaining and enhancing the quality and availability of Colombian coffee in the international market, particularly in light of the firm demand observed from global consumers. The combined effects of these weather-related challenges in Brazil and Colombia have intensified the pressures on supply chains, driving prices higher as producers and exporters strive to balance the ongoing demand in the international market.
