For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
Cold-Rolled Coil prices in the US market plummet during the third quarter of 2022. According to market participants, lower buying activity and lower inflationary pressure caused Cold-Rolled Coil prices to fall. Although more significant buys and mill resistance appear to be influencing the market to set a floor price, the US Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC) pricing has continued to fall. Reports from Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, and Steel Dynamics that they will increase production in the second half of the year as they ramp up production at three mills add to market gloom. Lower production levels were frequently blamed on weak buyer demand and, as a result, a drop in new orders. Market participants appeared unsure about the possibility of a price increase, citing a weak demand outlook. For most of the summer, CRC lead times were three to four weeks, but they have recently been extended to about four weeks. Plant closures have been announced for NLMK Portage, North Star Blue Scope Delta, SDI Butler, SDI Columbus, USS - Big River Steel Osceola, USS - Mon Valley Pittsburgh, Nucor - Berkeley Huger, Nucor - Crawfordsville, Nucor - Decatur, and Nucor - Hickman. Thus, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Midwest (USA) settled at USD 1430/MT.
Asia Pacific
Cold-Rolled Coil prices in China fell during the third quarter of 2022; China's pig iron and crude steel output fell further in mid-and late July as most steel manufacturers cut production due to rising losses. According to market participants, steel output cuts support domestic steel prices, which have fallen sharply since May due to weak demand and a supply glut. In August, stainless steel mills continued to cut output, and the market remained depleted of inventory. There was no improvement in demand outlook, and stainless-steel plants' overall production reduction effect was not as practical as expected. Some steel mills even increased production. As a result, merchants were highly cautious when making purchases. Overall demand was slightly lower. Demand for construction machinery, energy, and chemical equipment is somewhat resilient; automobile production has steadily increased; however, overseas interest rates have risen, demand has weakened, and export orders have declined. As a ripple effect, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Tianjin (China) settled at USD 692/MT.
Europe
Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC) prices in the European market witnessed a declining trend during the third quarter of 2022 amidst a sluggish demand outlook and higher production costs. According to market participants, Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC) is under significant pressure. Manufacturers struggle to fill additional orders and will reduce discounts for special offers. Furthermore, the downstream automotive sector reported mixed sentiments, with order intake reported as low but increasing. Given the lengthy automotive backlog, market players were cautiously optimistic that orders would be maintained in the future. Energy costs remained the main topic of discussion for downstream products, with production particularly vulnerable to rising energy and natural gas prices. Despite a lack of demand, downstream coils in South Europe were valued higher than their counterparts in North Europe. Therefore, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Ruhr (Germany) settled at USD 964/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The Cold-Rolled Coil prices showcased fluctuating market dynamics in the US market during Q2 2022. In April, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its repercussions on raw material and logistics further spurred the demand. However, the weak demand, limited supply, and fewer purchasing inquiries in May and June provoked Cold Rolled Coil prices to decline. Service centers continued to limit their purchases as the fear of plummeting prices and lower-priced imports grew. According to market players, prices for Cold-Rolled Coil (CR Coil) in the United States fell the most in May as Manufacturers continued to cut costs and buyers pushed for deeper discounts. Additionally, buyers' demand remained sluggish, and buying to contract minimums.
Asia Pacific
In the Asian market, the CRC market witnessed mixed sentiments during the second quarter of 2022. In April, cold-rolled coil prices surged due to the high raw material and coking coal prices. The prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine disrupted supply chains, skyrocketing raw material prices amidst traditional high demand from April to June. However, due to muted domestic demand and limited transactions, the Cold Rolled Coil prices declined in May and June. As per market players, the quotation offer for Cold Rolled Coil has moved sideways, while the tradable level has improved. Meanwhile, the downstream players adapted to the wait-and-watch approach, purchasing only when there was stringent demand in the domestic market. Additionally, as the ferronickel market's supply shortage eases and nickel prices fall, ferronickel costs have reduced and remained low for a short time.
Europe
During the Second Quarter of 2022, the Cold Rolled Coil prices declined due to lose demand from the end-user sectors. The Cold-Rolled Coil market ceased in April, with Easter and bank holidays muting the domestic demand. According to the market players, the CR Coil prices to buyers are stagnant, and the lead times are coming back down. However, the raw material prices weakened in April, and stocks at the ports have not been screened through the system. As per market participants, the European buyers persisted in holding back from making any new deals for CRC, expecting prices to revise further. Activity in the spot market remained weak, with distributors and service centers still holding sufficient stocks because of lower end-user demand. Downstream demand, particularly from the automotive sector, remains poor, with customers maintaining a wait-and-see approach.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The first quarter of 2022 ended with a tight supply chain, persistently pushing input costs higher. Cold Rolled Coil prices have witnessed a rising trend in North America. In contrast, prominent manufacturers are expanding hiring quotations to reduce the arrears of incomplete work. Moreover, significant buyers have already pre-arranged their requirements until May and are waiting for June bidding to start. Additionally, higher freight charges push Cold Rolled Coil Steel imports up in South America in results liquidity shrinking. Strict supply limits caused substantial problems, as transportation and delays threatened to interrupt operations. Nevertheless, amid higher freight rates, Imports prices for Cold Rolled Coil in South America were primarily up.
Asia Pacific
In India, the CRC market witnessed an upward shift due to inflation in raw materials coking coal prices. The extended hostilities between Russia and Ukraine caused supply disruption in the value chain resulting in soaring raw materials prices. Amidst it, traditional high demand in April-June till monsoon sets may be another factor. However, the Indian Steel manufacturers have hiked prices of CRC by USD 30-40/tonne due to inflation in coking coal costs. Moreover, the ongoing conflict has widened the demand-supply gap in Eastern European Nations; the Indian Steel market players are highly motivated regarding CRC export. Rising logistics costs and pre-booking for exports comforting the market bulls in India.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2022, the ongoing geopolitical tension amid Eastern European nations has caused supply chain disruption. Moreover, Russia primarily produces raw materials such as Aluminium, copper, coal, and crude oil. Soaring prices of coking coal in European nations lead to power shortages. Amid it, imposed sanctions on Russia compelled production and value chain blockage. Thus, in Eastern European Nations, the soaring coke and imposed sanctions deterred the whole production and supply chain. Amidst this, competitive import offers and complete credit lines provoked the European Steel market players to continue to hold back bookings on Europe-origin CRC.
