For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Cold Rolled Coil Price Index in the USA declined by 2.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, primarily driven by weakening demand in the automotive, HVAC, and home appliance sectors.
• Inventories at service centers remained elevated, with destocking continuing throughout the quarter, further dampening mill order books.
• The Cold Rolled Coil Production Cost Trend remained steady, with input HRC prices relatively stable and no significant disruptions in domestic logistics or labor.
• Import pressure from Mexico and South Korea added pricing pressure, especially for spot orders in the Midwest and Gulf Coast regions.
• Demand recovery lagged behind expectations, and procurement strategies shifted to shorter-term contracts and minimal stockpiling.
Why did the price of Cold Rolled Coil change in July 2025 in the USA?
• The Cold Rolled Coil Spot Price in July 2025 likely stayed under pressure as service centers continued cautious purchasing, reflecting a conservative outlook across industrial segments.
• Automotive production schedules were trimmed in early July, and HVAC demand remained below seasonal averages.
• The Cold Rolled Coil Price Forecast indicated limited upside without significant mill curtailments.
• The Cold Rolled Coil Demand Outlook remained sluggish, with restocking deferred amid expectations of better deals in Q3.
APAC
• The Cold Rolled Coil Price Index in Indonesia dropped sharply by 18.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reflecting oversupply in the domestic market and competitive regional export offers.
• Local mills faced intense pricing competition from Chinese CRC suppliers, who were aggressively pricing into Southeast Asia.
• The Cold Rolled Coil Production Cost Trend declined due to falling hot rolled coil input costs, easing energy rates, and increased operational efficiency across integrated mills.
• Domestic demand weakened, particularly from construction, white goods, and downstream fabrication sectors, while export realizations remained under pressure due to currency fluctuations.
• High port inventories and slower customs clearance further contributed to the glut, driving prices lower throughout the quarter.
Why did the price of Cold Rolled Coil change in July 2025 in Indonesia?
• The Cold Rolled Coil Spot Price in July 2025 likely declined further as mills ramped up discounts to clear high inventories.
• Buyer sentiment remained weak due to inflationary pressures and financing difficulties among downstream buyers.
• The Cold Rolled Coil Price Forecast signaled further softness unless coordinated production cuts materialize.
• The Cold Rolled Coil Demand Outlook for Q3 is fragile, with limited visibility on industrial orders and inconsistent export booking volumes.
Europe
• The Cold Rolled Coil Price Index in Germany registered a slight increase of 0.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, as demand from key segments such as automotive and mechanical equipment showed gradual improvement.
• Domestic producers benefited from reduced import volumes from Turkey and Eastern Europe due to tighter EU import regulations and geopolitical uncertainties.
• The Cold Rolled Coil Production Cost Trend remained stable, with predictable energy prices and consistent supply of input HRC.
• Purchasing activity increased modestly in May and June, led by restocking from small- to mid-sized manufacturing firms in northern Germany.
• Capacity utilization improved at major mills, though export demand to neighboring countries remained mixed.
Why did the price of Cold Rolled Coil change in July 2025 in Germany?
• The Cold Rolled Coil Spot Price in July 2025 is estimated to have held firm, supported by stable domestic mill order books and improved confidence among buyers.
• Automotive and engineered goods producers maintained consistent order placements, even as construction-related CRC demand stayed subdued.
• The Cold Rolled Coil Price Forecast suggested price stability through mid-Q3 unless there is a surge in import arrivals or energy cost volatility.
• The Cold Rolled Coil Demand Outlook remains cautiously optimistic, underpinned by resilient industrial output and a modest rebound in export-oriented sectors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American Cold Rolled Coil market experienced a significant upward trend in Q1 2025, driven by a combination of global and regional factors influencing both supply and demand dynamics. During Q1 2025, with prices settling at USD 1,395/MT CFR Manzanillo in Mexico.
The quarter revealed a 5% incline between Q1 quarter and Q4 last year, underscoring the bullish sentiment in the market. Supply constraints were a major factor, stemming from global disruptions such as import restrictions, port congestions, and broader inefficiencies in supply chain operations. These constraints limited the availability of product in the region, creating upward pressure on prices. At the same time, the demand for product in North America increased, particularly from industries tied to production, solidifying the market's positive momentum.
The Mexico demonstrated the most significant price changes, with an increase recorded indicating a steady upward trend. Despite disruptions in the supply chain, the pricing environment remained optimistic throughout the quarter, bolstered by rising domestic demand and constrained imports.
Europe
The European Cold Rolled Coil market demonstrated significant weakness in Q1 2025, with prices settling at USD 818/MT Fed-Ruhr in Germany, representing a 1.3% decline from Q4 2024. This downward movement reflects a confluence of challenging market conditions affecting the region. Additionally, Germany emerged as the epicentre of price movements, setting the tone for the broader European market. The quarter was characterized by persistent oversupply conditions, while demand remained subdued. Global economic uncertainties and ongoing geopolitical tensions further complicated the market landscape, adding to the bearish sentiment. Moreover, Key end-user sectors, notably automotive and construction, continued to show weakness in consumption patterns. This reduced demand, combined with abundant supply availability, maintained steady downward pressure on prices. Both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter comparisons indicated negative growth, underlining the sustained nature of market challenges. While pricing pressures were evident across Europe, Germany's market conditions proved particularly influential in shaping regional trends. In a result the combination of oversupply, weakened demand, and regulatory challenges created a consistently bearish pricing environment throughout the quarter.
APAC
The APAC Cold Rolled Coil market demonstrated persistent weakness during Q1 2025, with prices in China settling at USD 561/MT, marking a 2.7% decline from the previous quarter. This downward trajectory reflects a complex interplay of market forces affecting the region. Additionally, China emerged as the primary price influencer, experiencing the most significant fluctuations throughout the quarter. The market faced multiple headwinds, including disrupted logistics networks, volatile raw material costs, and shifting international trade patterns. Traditional seasonal factors, including the off-season period and adverse weather conditions, added another layer of complexity to the already challenging market environment. Moreover, Consumption patterns showed notable weakness across key sectors. The combination of reduced demand and abundant supply availability created sustained downward pressure on prices. The bearish sentiment was further reinforced by broader economic uncertainties affecting the region. Furthermore, while price pressures were evident throughout the APAC region, China's market conditions dominated regional pricing trends. The confluence of supply-side challenges and weakened demand fundamentals maintained negative price momentum throughout the quarter, setting a bearish tone for the broader regional market.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) market witnessed a downward price trajectory during Q4 2024, with prices settling at USD 1,226/MT CFR Manzanillo in Mexico. The quarter revealed a 5% decline between its fourth and third quarter, reflecting significant market pressures. Additionally, the quarter was characterized by a clear supply-demand imbalance, with excess supply levels dominating market conditions. Global trade dynamics, particularly increased imports, created additional complexity in the market landscape.
Mexico emerged as the focal point of price movements within the region, experiencing the most substantial declines compared to the previous year. Key consuming sectors, notably automotive and construction, demonstrated weakened demand patterns. This reduction in consumption, combined with abundant supply, created persistent downward pressure on prices. The sequential quarterly decline highlights the ongoing challenges in stimulating market demand.
While the entire North American region faced pricing challenges, Mexico's market conditions proved particularly noteworthy. The combination of excess supply and weakened demand maintained consistent downward pressure on prices throughout the quarter, creating a challenging environment for market participants.
Europe
The European Cold Rolled Coil market demonstrated significant weakness in Q4 2024, with prices settling at USD 818/MT Fed-Ruhr in Germany, representing a 5% decline from Q3. This downward movement reflects a confluence of challenging market conditions affecting the region. Additionally, Germany emerged as the epicentre of price movements, setting the tone for the broader European market. The quarter was characterized by persistent oversupply conditions, while demand remained subdued. Global economic uncertainties and ongoing geopolitical tensions further complicated the market landscape, adding to the bearish sentiment. Moreover, Key end-user sectors, notably automotive and construction, continued to show weakness in consumption patterns. This reduced demand, combined with abundant supply availability, maintained steady downward pressure on prices. Both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter comparisons indicated negative growth, underlining the sustained nature of market challenges. While pricing pressures were evident across Europe, Germany's market conditions proved particularly influential in shaping regional trends. In a result the combination of oversupply, weakened demand, and regulatory challenges created a consistently bearish pricing environment throughout the quarter.
APAC
The APAC Cold Rolled Coil market demonstrated persistent weakness during Q4 2024, with prices in China settling at USD 576/MT, marking a 1% decline from the previous quarter. This downward trajectory reflects a complex interplay of market forces affecting the region. Additionally, China emerged as the primary price influencer, experiencing the most significant fluctuations throughout the quarter. The market faced multiple headwinds, including disrupted logistics networks, volatile raw material costs, and shifting international trade patterns. Traditional seasonal factors, including the off-season period and adverse weather conditions, added another layer of complexity to the already challenging market environment. Moreover, Consumption patterns showed notable weakness across key sectors. The combination of reduced demand and abundant supply availability created sustained downward pressure on prices. The bearish sentiment was further reinforced by broader economic uncertainties affecting the region. Furthermore, while price pressures were evident throughout the APAC region, China's market conditions dominated regional pricing trends. The confluence of supply-side challenges and weakened demand fundamentals maintained negative price momentum throughout the quarter, setting a bearish tone for the broader regional market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Cold Rolled Coil market experienced a period of decreasing prices, influenced by several significant factors. The market was primarily impacted by a supply and demand imbalance, with excess supply levels leading to downward pressure on prices. Weak demand from key sectors such as automotive and construction played a crucial role in driving prices lower. Additionally, global market dynamics, including increased imports and trade uncertainties, further contributed to the pricing decline.
In Mexico, the market saw the most significant price changes, with prices dropping compared to the same quarter last year. The quarter-on-quarter charge recorded a decrease, highlighting the continued negative trend. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a 2.6% decline, reflecting the sustained downward trajectory. Additionally, the excess supply, coupled with weakening demand, is contributing to the overall pricing decline in the CRC market.
The latest quarter-ending price for CR Coil (1 mm) CFR Manzanillo in Mexico stood at USD 1275/MT, signalling a persistently negative pricing environment in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) market witnessed a continued decline in prices, reflecting a challenging environment marked by weak demand and oversupply conditions. Several factors influenced market prices, including sluggish demand in key sectors like automotive and construction, leading to subdued consumption of Cold Rolled Coil. Moreover, the market faced headwinds from global economic uncertainties, ongoing conflicts, and regulatory challenges, all contributing to the negative price trends.
Germany, experiencing the most significant price changes in the region, saw a notable decrease in Cold rolled coil prices. Moreover, Overall trends indicated a negative change from the same quarter last year, with a further decline from the previous quarter in 2024.Additioanly, the correlation in price changes between the first and second half of the quarter remained at 2.5% decline, indicating a consistent downward trajectory.
The quarter-ending price in Germany stood at USD 850/MT of CR Coil (1 mm) Fed-Ruhr, underscoring the prevailing negative sentiment and challenging market conditions.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 for Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) in the APAC region has been marked by a significant decrease in prices, driven by a multitude of factors. The market has experienced a decline from the same quarter last year, with a further decline from the previous quarter. Additionally, the overall trend has been negative, with a 4% decrease in pricing between the first and second half of the quarter.
China, as a key player in the region, has seen the maximum price changes, with prices declining consistently. Moreover, market dynamics have been influenced by a combination of increased supply, weakened demand, and global economic uncertainties. Additionally, the CRC market in China has faced challenges in logistics, raw material costs, and international trade dynamics. Furthermore, Seasonal factors, such as the off-season period and adverse weather conditions, have also played a role in the declining prices.
The latest quarter-ending price for CRC in China stands at USD 569 per metric ton, reflecting the overall decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment.
FAQs
• 1. What led to the decline in Cold Rolled Coil prices in the USA during Q2 2025?
The Cold Rolled Coil Price Index in the USA dropped by 2.4% in Q2 2025, primarily due to weak demand from the automotive, HVAC, and appliance sectors. Persistent service center destocking, stable input costs, and competitive imports from Mexico and South Korea further pressured prices. July 2025 prices remained under pressure amid cautious procurement and trimmed production schedules.
• 2. Why did Cold Rolled Coil prices fall sharply in Indonesia in Q2 2025?
Indonesia’s Cold Rolled Coil Price Index plummeted by 18.3% in Q2 2025 as local mills faced oversupply, aggressive pricing from Chinese exporters, and subdued domestic demand. Lower production costs and high port inventories worsened the price drop. Prices declined further in July as mills offered deeper discounts to stimulate weak buying activity.
• 3. Did Cold Rolled Coil prices increase in Germany in Q2 2025?
Yes, the Cold Rolled Coil Price Index in Germany rose slightly by 0.4% in Q2 2025. The increase was supported by gradual demand recovery in automotive and machinery sectors, along with reduced import competition due to EU trade restrictions. July 2025 prices held firm, buoyed by steady mill orders and improved industrial sentiment.
• 4. What is the demand outlook for Cold Rolled Coil in Q3 2025 across key regions?
The USA faces a sluggish demand outlook with service centers deferring restocking. Indonesia's outlook remains fragile due to inventory overhang and weak exports. Germany’s demand outlook is cautiously optimistic, supported by stable industrial production and modest export recovery.
