For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The US Cold Rolled Coil prices showed an overall declining price trend in the second quarter of 2023, despite of increasing price trend in the initial phase of the quarter, i.e., April. In the first month of the second quarter, the price of Cold Rolled Coil inclined in the US spot market as the local mills maintained a high base price that helped in maintaining a positive market sentiment for domestic and overseas buyers. The delivery time was reduced to 7-8 weeks from the previous 7-9 weeks. This led to a decline in the local inventory levels and hiked the price of CRC in the US spot market. Meanwhile, in H2, the market sentiment for the Cold Rolled Coil plunged as the economic instability increased amid the debt crisis caused by the failure of major banks across the USA. The economic condition worsened as the inflation rate rose, and the approval of the federal reserve hiked the interest rate. The buyers were shying away from placing large as the US CRC spot market got sluggish. Additionally, The decline in employment rate also impacted the manpower in the downstream US and infrastructural sector and led to a decline in demand for the Cold Rolled Coil in the US spot market. The local inventory levels were on a higher edge which provoked the US government to impose countervailing duties on the import of CRC from overseas Indian and European suppliers. At the end of Q2, the US government signed a deal to extend the debt crisis further for two more years. This gave hope for the upliftment of the US CRC market for the upcoming quarter.
Asia
The Chinese Cold Rolled Coil prices showed a declining trend in the second quarter of 2023. In the initial phase of Q2, the raw material prices, such as Coking coal, reduced as the production rate increased after the gain of profitable margins from the domestic spot market. The export rate plunged as the rising inflation rate and uncertain economic conditions decreased the demand from overseas US and European markets. Additionally, the trade became more stretched after the imposition of anti-dumping duties on Chinese-origin steel products by the accompanied effort from the European Union and the US government. The Qingming Festival and heavy rain disrupted the demand and consumption rate of Cold Rolled Coil in China. The downstream construction activity was also at a plunging rate as the arrival of the monsoon drastically affected the construction and infrastructural activity across the Chinese spot market. Additionally, the downstream automotive demand was plummeting as the hike in inflation rate reduced the buying capacity of local customers leading to an increased supply of Cold Rolled Coil. The Chinese government applied some economic stimulus to overcome the declining price trend of CRC at the end of the Second Quarter of 2023.
Europe
In the second quarter, the price of Italian-made Cold Rolled Coil increased in the initial phase of Q2, but later overall decline was observed in the H2 of the second quarter. In April, the price of Cold Rolled Coil surged in the Italian spot market. The downstream automotive industry was also showing a significant growth rate which led to sufficient demand in April and provoked the local Italian Steel mills to increase the price of CRC. The inventory levels declined in the initial phase of Q2 as the overseas delivery time was delayed from the ArcelorMittal plant in Italy. Meanwhile, in H2 of the second quarter, the situation decreased. The economic downturn in the global market had adversely affected the market sentiment for Cold Rolled Coil in the entire Europe. The declining construction activity reduced the consumption rate of CRC and led to mounting inventory levels in the Italian spot market. The labor shortage in overall Europe affected the construction work in Italy also. The Italian government's plans to increase interest rates led to shying tendency from the buyers' side, and this provoked the Italian steel mills to decrease their offer price in the H2 of the second quarter. Additionally, the downstream automobile industry declined. The European Union imposed dumping duties on the imported Cold Rolled Coil from the overseas Chinese and Indian markets.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the first quarter of 2023, the US Cold Rolled Coil market saw an unprecedented surge in prices as mills attempted to push prices up due to a tight market and longer lead times. Supply constraints were exacerbated by planned outages and failed mill ramp-ups, prompting steelmakers to take command of output levels. Steelmakers tightened their grip on production levels, dropping capacity utilization rates below 80%. However, demand dynamics remained at a lower level despite rising prices, making buyers hesitant to make forward purchases. The market reacted sluggishly to the price hike announcement, and spot inquiries dwindled as buyers attempted to determine whether a peak had been reached. CRC lead times reached an all-time high at the end of March, but the increased lead times did not appear to increase demand or allow mills to reserve more expensive spot tonnes. As a result, buyers continued to assess their order books and limit contract purchases to manage their inventories as the price cycle continued downward. As a ripple effect, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Midwest are assessed at USD 1230/MT.
Asia Pacific
In the first quarter of 2023, the Chinese market witnessed an upsurge in Cold Rolled Coil prices due to rising downstream automotive inquiries and fluctuating raw material prices. However, weak market fundamentals and a challenging macroeconomic environment compelled prices to remain volatile ahead of the Spring Festival celebrations. Additionally, the ongoing property sector recession and slow growth in manufactured exports affected Cold Rolled Coil consumption. Domestic Cold Rolled Coil mills enjoyed price advantages against rising overseas steel prices since January, resulting in their eagerness to accept overseas orders, and some had received so many that their production would last until March. However, terminal demand grew more slowly due to dropping prices and weather conditions. The Cold Rolled Coil output increased this quarter as the maintenance impact faded. At the end of Q1, the fall in total inventory and social inventory narrowed while in-plant inventory climbed. Falling CRC prices led to terminal refilling, resulting in a decrease in inventories. The CR Coil (SPCC-1 mm) prices for Ex Tianjin are currently fixed at USD 735/MT due to the ripple effect.
Europe
In Q1 2023, the European Cold Rolled Coil market experienced an uptrend in prices. Domestic manufacturers maintained high offers for cold-rolled, citing good order books and limited availability. However, buyers resisted higher prices due to still-slow end-user demand. Steelmakers offered second-quarter production material after selling out of the first-quarter rolling coil. Some mills in Germany and Italy reduced the availability of CRC by no longer offering the material. Despite buyer skepticism about the sustainability of the positive trend and limited trading activity, European steelmakers insisted on higher prices for the raw material hot-rolled coil. Steel mills producing CRC ran at reduced rates in mid-Q1, keeping the market balanced. Most mills in Europe offer May-June delivery CRC coil, while some German mills were sold out for June delivery. The current CRC scarcity persisted at the end of the first quarter of 2023 due to Acciaierie d'Italia production challenges, Tata Steel disruptions, no import bids from Turkey, and uncompetitive Asian prices. As a ripple effect, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Ruhr were fixed at USD 1060/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Prices for US Cold Rolled Coil dwindled in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to a lack of price direction and major logistics concerns. In the fourth quarter, the steel market awaited the outcome of contract negotiations between integrated steelmaker US Steel and USW, which expired on September 1st, 2022. However, the US government intervened to prevent a national freight rail strike by forcing union members to accept a deal and raise employee wages. Additionally, the Mississippi River's water level dropped in the final quarter, resulting in costly dredging, traffic congestion, and shipping delays. Furthermore, shippers were forced to limit the cargo volume their barges could transport to navigate the low water levels safely. High-priced raw materials had higher conversion costs in mid-Q4, with expensive pig iron inventories and higher-priced scrap inventories being the primary drivers of CRC mixed sentiment. As the holiday season approached in December, market participants reported little trading activity in the spot market. The market slowed as mills continued to raise prices in preparation for the Christmas holiday. According to market participants, CRC prices have risen due to trade concerns that winter storms will disrupt logistics and steel production in the United States. As a result, the Ex Midwest (USA) price of CR Coil (1 mm) was set at USD 1033/MT.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the Cold Rolled Coil prices showcased an upswing price trend in the Chinese market amidst sporadic COVID lockdowns, logistics issues, and a shrinking demand outlook. In October, the prices of Cold-Rolled Coil plunged in the backdrop of shrinking demand and limited purchasing activity. Large Chinese mills resisted lowering their offers in export markets, while spot traders began to sell short. By November, nickel and steel had begun rallying again. However, suppliers remained rampant with an inventory. Furthermore, Chinese scrap prices rose in mid-Q4, but the price gains were offset. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike continued to hurt the commodity market, so the market was pessimistic. Suppliers reduced market shipments as winter restocking expectations fell. In December, Cold Rolled Coil prices appeared bullish again, making the 2023 Q1 price outlook appear more bullish. Thus, the Ex Tianjin (China) CR coil (SPCC-1 mm) price was fixed at USD 666/MT.
Europe
Prices for Coil Rolled Coil in the European market fell in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to low demand, increased supply chain stocks, and cautious end-user purchasing activity. The European cold-rolled coil market remained quiet in Q4, according to suppliers, with some suppliers' discounts failing to stimulate trading activity and fill gaps in their order books. Despite this, regional trade remained subdued in Q4. Distributors reported large stocks of downstream coil purchased at higher prices in the first quarter to avoid restocking in the fourth quarter. To balance supply and demand, several European producers either stopped producing steel or reduced output in the third and fourth quarters of 2022. Mills believed that Cold-Rolled Coil prices had reached a bottom, with no room for further price drops due to higher production costs. Aside from low demand and overstocking, competitive overseas offers had pushed CRC prices in southern Europe lower. While some buyers need to restock, market participants stated that they would prefer to wait for the price to fall to its lowest point before replenishing stocks for the first quarter of 2023. Thus, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Ruhr are fixed at USD 854/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
Cold-Rolled Coil prices in the US market plummet during the third quarter of 2022. According to market participants, lower buying activity and lower inflationary pressure caused Cold-Rolled Coil prices to fall. Although more significant buys and mill resistance appear to be influencing the market to set a floor price, the US Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC) pricing has continued to fall. Reports from Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, and Steel Dynamics that they will increase production in the second half of the year as they ramp up production at three mills add to market gloom. Lower production levels were frequently blamed on weak buyer demand and, as a result, a drop in new orders. Market participants appeared unsure about the possibility of a price increase, citing a weak demand outlook. For most of the summer, CRC lead times were three to four weeks, but they have recently been extended to about four weeks. Plant closures have been announced for NLMK Portage, North Star Blue Scope Delta, SDI Butler, SDI Columbus, USS - Big River Steel Osceola, USS - Mon Valley Pittsburgh, Nucor - Berkeley Huger, Nucor - Crawfordsville, Nucor - Decatur, and Nucor - Hickman. Thus, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Midwest (USA) settled at USD 1430/MT.
Asia Pacific
Cold-Rolled Coil prices in China fell during the third quarter of 2022; China's pig iron and crude steel output fell further in mid-and late July as most steel manufacturers cut production due to rising losses. According to market participants, steel output cuts support domestic steel prices, which have fallen sharply since May due to weak demand and a supply glut. In August, stainless steel mills continued to cut output, and the market remained depleted of inventory. There was no improvement in demand outlook, and stainless-steel plants' overall production reduction effect was not as practical as expected. Some steel mills even increased production. As a result, merchants were highly cautious when making purchases. Overall demand was slightly lower. Demand for construction machinery, energy, and chemical equipment is somewhat resilient; automobile production has steadily increased; however, overseas interest rates have risen, demand has weakened, and export orders have declined. As a ripple effect, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Tianjin (China) settled at USD 692/MT.
Europe
Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC) prices in the European market witnessed a declining trend during the third quarter of 2022 amidst a sluggish demand outlook and higher production costs. According to market participants, Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC) is under significant pressure. Manufacturers struggle to fill additional orders and will reduce discounts for special offers. Furthermore, the downstream automotive sector reported mixed sentiments, with order intake reported as low but increasing. Given the lengthy automotive backlog, market players were cautiously optimistic that orders would be maintained in the future. Energy costs remained the main topic of discussion for downstream products, with production particularly vulnerable to rising energy and natural gas prices. Despite a lack of demand, downstream coils in South Europe were valued higher than their counterparts in North Europe. Therefore, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Ruhr (Germany) settled at USD 964/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The Cold-Rolled Coil prices showcased fluctuating market dynamics in the US market during Q2 2022. In April, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its repercussions on raw material and logistics further spurred the demand. However, the weak demand, limited supply, and fewer purchasing inquiries in May and June provoked Cold Rolled Coil prices to decline. Service centers continued to limit their purchases as the fear of plummeting prices and lower-priced imports grew. According to market players, prices for Cold-Rolled Coil (CR Coil) in the United States fell the most in May as Manufacturers continued to cut costs and buyers pushed for deeper discounts. Additionally, buyers' demand remained sluggish, and buying to contract minimums.
Asia Pacific
In the Asian market, the CRC market witnessed mixed sentiments during the second quarter of 2022. In April, cold-rolled coil prices surged due to the high raw material and coking coal prices. The prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine disrupted supply chains, skyrocketing raw material prices amidst traditional high demand from April to June. However, due to muted domestic demand and limited transactions, the Cold Rolled Coil prices declined in May and June. As per market players, the quotation offer for Cold Rolled Coil has moved sideways, while the tradable level has improved. Meanwhile, the downstream players adapted to the wait-and-watch approach, purchasing only when there was stringent demand in the domestic market. Additionally, as the ferronickel market's supply shortage eases and nickel prices fall, ferronickel costs have reduced and remained low for a short time.
Europe
During the Second Quarter of 2022, the Cold Rolled Coil prices declined due to lose demand from the end-user sectors. The Cold-Rolled Coil market ceased in April, with Easter and bank holidays muting the domestic demand. According to the market players, the CR Coil prices to buyers are stagnant, and the lead times are coming back down. However, the raw material prices weakened in April, and stocks at the ports have not been screened through the system. As per market participants, the European buyers persisted in holding back from making any new deals for CRC, expecting prices to revise further. Activity in the spot market remained weak, with distributors and service centers still holding sufficient stocks because of lower end-user demand. Downstream demand, particularly from the automotive sector, remains poor, with customers maintaining a wait-and-see approach.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The first quarter of 2022 ended with a tight supply chain, persistently pushing input costs higher. Cold Rolled Coil prices have witnessed a rising trend in North America. In contrast, prominent manufacturers are expanding hiring quotations to reduce the arrears of incomplete work. Moreover, significant buyers have already pre-arranged their requirements until May and are waiting for June bidding to start. Additionally, higher freight charges push Cold Rolled Coil Steel imports up in South America in results liquidity shrinking. Strict supply limits caused substantial problems, as transportation and delays threatened to interrupt operations. Nevertheless, amid higher freight rates, Imports prices for Cold Rolled Coil in South America were primarily up.
Asia Pacific
In India, the CRC market witnessed an upward shift due to inflation in raw materials coking coal prices. The extended hostilities between Russia and Ukraine caused supply disruption in the value chain resulting in soaring raw materials prices. Amidst it, traditional high demand in April-June till monsoon sets may be another factor. However, the Indian Steel manufacturers have hiked prices of CRC by USD 30-40/tonne due to inflation in coking coal costs. Moreover, the ongoing conflict has widened the demand-supply gap in Eastern European Nations; the Indian Steel market players are highly motivated regarding CRC export. Rising logistics costs and pre-booking for exports comforting the market bulls in India.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2022, the ongoing geopolitical tension amid Eastern European nations has caused supply chain disruption. Moreover, Russia primarily produces raw materials such as Aluminium, copper, coal, and crude oil. Soaring prices of coking coal in European nations lead to power shortages. Amid it, imposed sanctions on Russia compelled production and value chain blockage. Thus, in Eastern European Nations, the soaring coke and imposed sanctions deterred the whole production and supply chain. Amidst this, competitive import offers and complete credit lines provoked the European Steel market players to continue to hold back bookings on Europe-origin CRC.
