For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
In the second quarter of 2023, the US Copper Plate showed a stagnant price trend amid macroeconomic factors playing a major role in its stability. In the initial phase of Q2, the price rise was observed as there was an unexpected decline in the Producer Price Index in the USA which lifted some downward pressure from the copper plate manufacturing. The supply demand rate was stable which indicated that the US government in end phase of interest rate hike and were going to decline it in upcoming weeks. Meanwhile, the market condition in H2 of the second quarter drastically declined, which withdrawn the price hike from the first half of the quarter. In the later half, the US government faced a depriving economic condition in the second quarter as the downfall of several major banks across the USA created a debt crisis in the US spot market. The buyers then remained on a wait and watch basis and the purchasing rate was centered over need on demand basis. The downstream infrastructural development along with the decarburization effect for electrification of various mills kept the consumption rate stable across German spot market.
Asia- Pacific
The Asian market showed an increasing price trend for Copper Plate in the second quarter as the Chinese copper market experienced an optimistic market sentiment. In China, the copper smelting mills were performing at a firm rate amid stable domestic consumption rate. The supply disruption across a few domestic warehouses gave the chance to stabilize the mills and return them to full capacity. By different government deals and policies, the production cost rises in the Chinese spot market that provided a strong cost support to produce Copper plate. The inventory level was maintained at a bit lower edge as the manufacturing activity didn’t hike as much as the demand surged. The supply of Copper scrap remained stable that helped in northward momentum for copper prices. The slight decline was observed amid increased import rate as the cargo shipment were more attracted due to the import subsidy policies provided by the Chinese spot government. The uncertain economic condition somewhat dampened the price of Copper Plate as the overseas US and countries inside Eurozone have banned import of Chinese origin commodities including copper plate, which led to an increase in local Chinese inventory levels. The oversupply in China provoked the local mils to sell Copper Plate in surplus amount at a cheaper rate to maintain the supply- demand gap. Meanwhile, the buyers were shying away from placing large orders as the market sentiment got bearish and there was only on-demand purchase across Chinese spot market.
Europe
The price of Copper Plate remained stable in the second quarter in the German spot market as the macroeconomic factors played a major role in its stability. The weakening of US dollar provided a strong fundamental for price of Copper plate and presumed to be the last phase for reduction in interest hike across Germany. The copper Plate supply remained stable as the copper smelting mills were performing at a firm rate. The demand for Copper plate was steady from buyers’ side as the buyers remained in a wait and watch situation and the purchase was on demand basis. Meanwhile, the decarburization and electrification of various copper smelting mills kept the consumption rate high and promoted the stability in copper plate prices. The domestic consumption rate was on a lower edge as the economic condition worsened in the H2 of Q2. The German economy went into recession amid consistent increase in inflation rate. The trade conditions dampened as the economy declined in the local as well as overseas markets. The purchasing ability of consumers decreased that led to a surge in the local inventory level for Copper Plates. This provoked the German government to impose countervailing duties over import of cheaper copper products from overseas Chinese and Asian market. The downstream automotive industry showed a plunging market trend as the electric vehicles sales declined leading to oversupply of Copper plate. The German government is planning to sign various deals to uplift the consumption rate of Copper Plates along with uplifting the economic condition of country.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In Q1 2023, Copper Plate prices in the US market rose due to an increase in downstream construction and machinery inquiries amidst the banking sector's turmoil. Buyers opted for long-term contracts to meet their needs, avoiding the relatively quiet spot market. However, market participants cautioned about potential supply disruptions due to protests in Peru and a planned outage at the Kennecott smelter in Utah, USA. The delayed shipments from Peru and Chile led to an increased interest in acquiring copper scrap, but the existing supply and demand balance kept US premiums stable. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank had a modest impact on copper prices, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in March had little influence. Market sentiment returned to neutral after the panic subsided. Due to the liquidity strain on several US banks, the US Fed appears unlikely to tighten monetary policy much in the medium and long term. Consequently, the Copper Plate (C 11000) prices for Ex Alabama and FOB Alabama Port were fixed at USD 16884/MT and USD 16957/MT.
Asia Pacific
During Q1 2023, Copper Plate prices in the Chinese market witnessed an uptrend due to the surge in Copper futures and a balanced market with limited global copper stocks. According to market players, Copper began the New Year on a positive note, with funds returning to the market in anticipation of China's rapid exit from a year of lockdowns. However, many small and medium-sized cable enterprises downstream closed for the Spring Festival holiday in January due to the epidemic situation and off-season consumption. With no apparent improvement in consumption, downstream replenishment remained weak, and spot market transactions were scarce. As Q1 progressed, terminals, processing plants, and downstream businesses resumed production, and orders for Copper plates increased. As the country entered a seasonal peak consumption season, demand rose, and sellers prioritized the delivery of long-term orders. In the face of high Copper prices, downstream companies adopted a wait-and-see approach. Copper prices increased as market expectations for domestic consumption recovery improved, but the rise in the US index limited Copper price gains to some extent. As a ripple effect, the Copper Plate (C 12000) prices for Ex Qingdao settled at USD 8280/MT.
Europe
The European market witnessed a rise in Copper Plate prices during Q1 2023, attributed to high demand for refined Copper, low inventory levels on all three exchanges, and a rise in raw material prices during the banking turmoil. However, some buyers are avoiding Russian Copper due to heavy stocking in futures warehouses. Europe's tight supply, uncertainty in demand, and record-high annual contract prices are likely to affect the spot market. Copper prices, which are an economic indicator, were affected by the recent rout in global markets due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. Producers warn that price volatility due to diminished inventories poses challenges for traders, producers, and consumers. The recent surge in orders was due to the significant drop in copper prices rather than an increase in actual demand from end-users. Buyers reported a continued downward trend in inventories compared to 2022. Thus, the Copper Plate (CW008A-1 mm) prices for Ex Drolshagen and FOB Hamburg are fixed at USD 14100/MT and USD 14281/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the final quarter of 2022, the Copper Plate prices showcased a rising trend in the US market, despite rising interest rates and a mixed downstream demand outlook. Copper prices fluctuated due to fears of a global recession as inflation in North America reached double digits in Q4. The supply outlook remained bleak in October, as lower prices were insufficient to spur new manufacturing investment. According to buyers, copper prices rose in mid-Q4 alongside global stock markets as investors believed that central banks would slow the pace of interest rate rises, and the dollar fell, making dollar-priced commodities less expensive for buyers using other currencies. In the absence of any changes in the base metals that indicated a continuation of sideways movement, the copper plate market remained uncertain amid global conflicts and the US midterm elections. Buyers reported that the physical trade had been extremely quiet and would continue to be so until the end of the year. As a result, domestic buyers chose to adopt a conservative approach. Thus, the Copper Plate (C 11000) discussions for Ex Alabama (USA) settled at USD 12383/MT.
Asia Pacific
Copper Plate prices climbed in an upward direction in the Chinese market in the fourth quarter of 2022, despite easing current macroeconomic pressures, with solid support from both the supply and demand sides. Copper concentrate supply in China increased insufficiently in October, and downstream enterprises feared higher prices, limiting the rise in copper prices. The possibility that the LME would ban Russian metals boosted copper prices. The epidemic reduced the operating rates in both North and South China. Consumers were becoming incompetent to support rising prices, and the supply-demand gap widened in mid-Q4. The new production capacity was put into service, but the supply pressure delivery rate was slower due to maintenance and equipment transformation disruptions. After China's pandemic control measures were relaxed at the end of the fourth quarter, market participants became increasingly concerned about the demand outlook. Imported and domestic copper arrivals were limited, and downstream firms increased their purchases in December. The New Year was approaching, and an increase in the number of COVID-19-infected patients had curtailed downstream companies' operating rates in half, suppressing demand. As a result, the Ex Qingdao (China) Copper Plate (C 12000) prices are fixed at USD 7733/MT.
Europe
In the European market, Copper Plate prices increased in the fourth quarter of 2022, and the currency strengthened amidst hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve officials. Despite production difficulties in mid-Q4, the threatened supply situation was not reflected in Copper Plate prices. The supply outlook remained bleak because the low prices did not sufficiently stimulate new production. With the exception of a few large mines in Chile and Peru, the market experienced little expansion. Copper Plate prices were expected to be volatile if Western nations or the London Metal Exchange imposed restrictions on Russian-produced metal. However, the LME did not impose a ban on Russian-origin products. According to market participants, a stronger dollar increased the cost of the greenback-priced metal for buyers holding other currencies. Furthermore, global copper stocks fell to record lows, with current inventories only enough to meet global demand for a few days and shortage risks that did not reflect the physical market's tightness. A series of planned and unplanned smelter shutdowns in South America and Europe have exacerbated the impact of increased supply on treatment charges this year. Thus, Copper Plate (CW008A-1 mm) prices for Ex Drolshagen settled at USD 12653/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the North American market, Copper Plate prices witnessed an up-swinging trend in the third quarter of 2022. According to market participants, the LME copper price rose weekly, approaching $8,000 per tonne. However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance hampered the demand outlook in August, outweighing supply risks. With Chile's Codelco becoming the latest major producer to cut output guidance, the worsening sentiment on Copper Plate demand took precedence over further signs that supply is under threat. Copper Plate prices have been supported by ongoing supply bottlenecks at several mines across the United States and Chinese authorities cutting interest rates. In conjunction with rising European energy prices, the US Inflation Reduction Act has prompted several investors and manufacturers to invest in renewables as soon as possible before energy prices skyrocket, thereby increasing copper demand. Therefore, the discussions of Copper Plate (C 11000) prices for Ex Alabama (USA) settled at USD 15130/MT.
Asia Pacific
Copper Plate prices fell by more than 10% during the third quarter of 2022 due to falling raw material costs. According to market participants, even though input costs are declining, inflationary concerns remain firm, and the manufacturers implemented cost-cutting measures to help the margin rise. According to market participants, the benefits of softening raw materials may be visible in the coming quarters. Copper prices rose in August after data showed that inflation in the United States was lower than expected, raising hopes that interest rate hikes would be less aggressive and alleviating fears of a recession. Copper prices rose as investors worried that stoppages caused by high energy prices or other disruptions would lead to shortages. However, because they are essentially refiners who import copper concentrates due to limited access to mines, the profitability of Indian copper players is less dependent on metal prices. As a ripple effect, the Copper Plate (C 12000) prices for Ex Qingdao settled at USD 7905/MT.
Europe
Copper Plate prices in Germany increased in the third quarter of 2022. According to the Federal Statistical Office, inflation in Germany rose again in August after falling slightly in June and July due to short-term government programs to reduce consumer burdens in the transportation sector. The European Central Bank has raised interest rates to combat the eurozone crisis. If the price remains below the marginal cost for an extended period, some producers may be forced to close their plants. However, as investors became more cautious, global equities fell, and the US dollar rose, putting pressure on dollar-priced metals by making them more expensive to buyers using other currencies. Funds have been amassing short positions in anticipation of a recession. Some investors bought put options, which give the holder the right to sell copper at a specific price on a particular date. Thus, the Copper Plate (C 11000) prices for FOB Bremen (Germany) dropped to USD 13360/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
South America
In Chile, the Copper Plate prices witnessed a declining trade during the second quarter of 2022. According to market participants, declining Chilean production and conflict with local communities near copper mines in Peru have exacerbated supply concerns. Due to droughts in Chile's Antofagasta and Atacama regions, manufacturers are forced to use seawater and desalination plants. Exchange warehouses, where supplies of copper metal are limited, provide some relief. Furthermore, Codelco, a Chilean state-owned copper mining company, announced that it would close its Ventanas smelter, which had been closed for maintenance and operational adjustments following a recent environmental incident that sickened dozens in the region. Meanwhile, China's strict "zero-covid" policy of constantly monitoring, testing, and isolating its citizens to halt the spread of the coronavirus has harmed the country's economy and manufacturing sector.
Asia Pacific
In the Chinese market, the Copper Plate prices witnessed declining sentiments during the second quarter of 2022. Due to the ongoing domestic epidemic in April, market demand was weak, disrupted logistics transportation was in many places, and downstream processing firms' operating rates were significantly lower. In May, US stocks fell, the US dollar index rose, and investors were concerned about global stagflation. Furthermore, the current domestic epidemic continues to drag down copper consumption, and market sentiment is pessimistic. The low global copper inventory has weakened copper prices' support. Fundamentally, concentrate supply is adequate, spot processing costs are stable, and demand is muted.
Europe
In the European market, the Copper Plate prices declined due to the muted demand and limited transactions in the regional market amidst the inflationary pressure and supply snarls. As per market players, the elevated US inflationary pressure has bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve's aggressive stimulus to rein in price coercion, heightening concerns of a recession. The administrators are striking an increasingly hawkish tone, rattling risk assets across markets. Traders cite that recession worries pummel the prices. In the mid-second quarter, inflation and supplies are still tight. But Copper prices are plummeting as worries about a downshift in industrial movement across major economies dovetail with slumping demand in China. At the same time, the European Central Bank lifted its inflation forecast at the June meeting and intended to start a gradual and sustained interest rate hike. The hawkish signs put pressure on the assets.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
South America
In South America, the Copper Plate witnessed an inclining trend owing to increased demand from the downstream sector amidst the Russia-Ukraine war. Additionally, Peru's government has put ambiguous taxes on the mining activities in the country since 2021, drawing fierce protest from the local miners. According to domestic players, Peru's current benefit from mining taxes is nearly 50%. Meanwhile, it is approximately 41% in Chile. Peru's administration is still focused on surplus profits. Despite fundamental objectives, domestic market players in Peru are less ambitious about the new push in the market. Additionally, market players expect Copper Plate prices to showcase a marginal increase in trend due to inventory depletion and supply shortage. However, the demand for Copper is expected to be stable this year.
Asia Pacific
Copper Plate prices in Asia-Pacific increased in the first quarter of 2022. In the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, raised LME cash prices essentially support this inflationary expansion. With a weekly marginal gain of 0.80 percent, LME cash prices settled at $10,400/tonne. Hindalco, India's largest copper miner, had its production fall by roughly 12% in February compared to January. Hindalco's annual production has also reduced by about 5.14 percent. Furthermore, in China, a more brutal COVID control policy in Shanghai briefly hampered Copper's industrial activity and the supply chain, which further provoked tight supplies and sliding inventories. As a result, Chinese copper scrap prices increased by 3.4 percent per metric tonne. Across the middle of this, Peru's government has implemented ambiguous mining taxes in the country. Despite primary targets, the domestic market players in Peru are less ambitious about the new push in the market. As a ripple effect, the Copper Plate (C110/B5) prices for Ex Mumbai (India) settled at INR 834500/MT.
Europe
Copper Plate prices in Europe remained high in the first quarter of 2022, with the Copper Monthly Metals Index (MMI) rising 3.5 percent month over month and remaining in a tight trading range. A global supply constraint caused by the extended hostilities between Russia and Ukraine resulted in a two-fold impact on the Copper market. Furthermore, substantial price swings encouraged industrial clients to purchase opportunities owing to the unanticipated danger of storing inventories. On the other hand, traders utilized this range to scalp prices, which means they took short positions to profit from Copper's price volatility. As a result, industrial buyers face risk and are reluctant about whether to hedge or cut back on their acquisitions.
