For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Corrugated Box Price Index performance for Q2 saw a total decline of about 3.22, with June ending at around USD 1641/MT.
• The main drivers included declining import demand especially from Mexico, tariff-related input cost volatility, and ongoing end user weakness across charts, e commerce, and industrial end users.
• Why did the price of Corrugated Box change in July 2025? A sharp 4.48% drop reflected weak Mexican export orders, tariff related uncertainty on Canadian and Mexican pulp imports, and high domestic inventories.
• Oversupply risks manifested in May and June as manufacturers-maintained output amid declining order volumes, pressuring spot prices and depressing margins.
• Supply chain factors included stable kraft paper availability, uninterrupted logistics, but cautious corrugated Box production schedules from inventory build up reduced pricing power.
• Corrugated Box Upstream cost trends showed softening kraft paper and recycled fibre prices, offsetting some margin pressure despite weak demand.
• Corrugated Box demand outlook for Q3 remains subdued as FMCG, e commerce, and industrial restocking lull persists, with price sentiment leaning toward sideways to modestly lower trajectory.
APAC
• Corrugated Box FOB Shanghai prices declined by 7.2% in Q2 2025 compared to Q1, reflecting bearish sentiment and weak external demand.
• In China, overcapacity and weak exports to Southeast Asia (e.g., Vietnam, Thailand) dominated, while India saw stable FMCG-driven demand but limited bulk buying.
• Corrugated Box prices fell in April 2025 due to soft downstream demand, excess supply, and limited e-commerce-related uplift during the off-season.
• A 1.9 million tonne capacity addition between Apr-Jun intensified oversupply, compressing margins and restricting price recovery.
• Corrugated Box high inventories, stable production, and slow overseas procurement exerted constant pressure on spot market rates.
• Corrugated Box production cost support was short-lived, and mills operated at cautious rates amid poor order visibility and thin profitability.
• The Corrugated Box demand outlook for Q3 2025 remains subdued, with limited recovery expected due to ongoing global trade softness, off-season sluggishness in e-commerce, and muted overseas procurement from key markets like Southeast Asia. Persistent inventory overhang and cautious ordering from end-use sectors such as FMCG and retail are likely to keep consumption restrained.
• Corrugated Box prices are forecasted to stay soft through Q3 as seasonal demand weakness persists and global trade sentiment remains tepid, delaying recovery.
Europe
• Corrugated Box FD Hamburg prices rose by 20.5% in Q2 2025, reaching USD 650/MT in June amid severe logistics disruptions.
• FMCG and e-commerce demand remained strong while regulatory port constraints and congestion amplified delivery delays.
• Why did the price of Corrugated Box change in July 2025? – Logistical bottlenecks at Hamburg, including MSC relocation and automation works, tightened supply and pushed prices up.
• Hamburg faced the steepest impact, while Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven saw smoother operations but limited market relief.
• Corrugated Box Inventory levels remained tight as buyers advanced orders to navigate shipping delays, sustaining bullish demand sentiment.
• No major corrugated Box production issues occurred, but rail closures, truck restrictions, and yard congestion escalated costs and curtailed outbound supply.
• The demand outlook for Corrugated Box in Q3 2025 remains firm, supported by steady offtake from FMCG and e-commerce sectors, as buyers continue to advance purchases to mitigate ongoing logistical disruptions and delivery uncertainties.
• The Corrugated Box price forecast for Q3 indicates potential upward pressure if port congestion and inland transport bottlenecks persist, though any easing in logistics could stabilize the market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American corrugated box market experienced mixed pricing dynamics during the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a blend of operational adjustments, external trade pressures, and evolving demand patterns. Prices initially showed signs of modest recovery, supported by operational streamlining and steady raw material availability. However, this stabilization was short-lived as new tariff impositions on imports from Canada and Mexico disrupted cross-border supply chains, adding uncertainty to sourcing and production.
The resulting market unease contributed to a price decline toward the end of the quarter, with corrugated packaging prices falling by nearly 4%. Despite strong demand from the e-commerce and retail sectors and growing momentum in sustainable and smart packaging solutions, the packaging industry faced cautious procurement behaviours amid economic headwinds.
While long-term growth remains anchored in sustainability and digital innovation, short-term pricing was shaped more by trade policy shifts and market recalibration efforts, leading to an overall slightly downward price trend across the quarter.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2025, the corrugated box market in the APAC region exhibited a gradual downward price trend, largely influenced by declining raw material costs and cautious procurement behaviour. While the packaging industry in China and other key APAC markets maintained operational stability, subdued export demand and soft market sentiment weighed on pricing. Early in the quarter, prices remained relatively steady, supported by consistent domestic demand from the e-commerce and retail sectors, as well as a stable supply of corrugated paper.
However, as the quarter progressed, falling wood pulp prices and a slowdown in industrial activity placed downward pressure on market values. Temporary logistical challenges, including fog-related port disruptions in China and concerns over international pulp shipments, had only a limited impact on overall supply continuity. Buyers across the region continued to adopt a conservative purchasing approach, reflecting global economic uncertainties and reduced export momentum. Despite these headwinds, steady consumption in domestic markets, especially in Vietnam and China, helped prevent a more significant price decline.
Overall, the quarter concluded with a modest correction in corrugated box prices, shaped by a combination of cost-driven pressure and restrained demand.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2025, the European corrugated box market, particularly in Germany, experienced a progressive upward trend in prices, supported by strong downstream demand and intermittent supply chain disruptions. Early in the quarter, the market remained largely stable, as balanced supply-demand conditions and steady raw material availability kept pricing unchanged.
However, as the quarter progressed, operational disruptions at key logistics hubs, such as the Port of Hamburg, began to exert upward pressure on prices. Labour shortages, gate-in restrictions, and a pilot strike led to delays in container handling and constrained shipment flows, tightening supply conditions despite consistent demand from the retail, FMCG, and e-commerce sectors. Buyers responded to the growing uncertainty by increasing safety stock levels, further reinforcing bullish price sentiment. Rising raw material and freight costs also contributed to the firming trend.
By the end of the quarter, corrugated box prices had risen significantly, reflecting a market environment shaped by resilient demand, strategic stockpiling, and mounting logistical challenges.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American corrugated box market exhibited a mixed price trend during Q4 2024, with prices rising in the first half of the quarter before declining in the latter half. Early in the quarter, hurricane-related production disruptions tightened supply, driving up prices.
Emergency shutdowns and repair efforts at key facilities created temporary constraints, while rising kraft paper costs and freight expenses further amplified production costs. Seasonal demand from e-commerce, retail, and food packaging sectors provided additional upward pressure on prices, with robust holiday activity bolstering procurement needs. Anticipated tariff changes and potential East and Gulf Coast port strikes heightened logistical risks, though strategic inventory accumulation by retailers mitigated supply chain disruptions.
In the latter half of the quarter, prices began to decline as supply stabilized. Swift repairs at production facilities and increased imports helped normalize availability, while moderate demand growth tempered the upward momentum. Weakness in the renewable energy and mobility sectors, alongside balanced container port inventories, further dampened price trends. Despite seasonal peaks, the resilience of consumer and food packaging demand was insufficient to sustain price increases, leading to a modest decline in the latter half of the quarter.
Q4 2024 thus reflected a dynamic market, characterized by early price increases due to supply constraints and strong seasonal demand, followed by stabilization and a gradual decline as supply pressures eased.
APAC
The corrugated box market in the APAC region exhibited a mixed trend during Q4 2024, with prices remaining stable in the first half of the quarter before declining in the latter half. Early in the quarter, the market experienced steady price levels supported by balanced supply-demand dynamics. Seasonal demand from retail, e-commerce, and logistics sectors contributed to this stability, particularly as the holiday season and preparations for the Spring Festival drove robust packaging requirements. Despite logistical disruptions caused by Typhoon Kong-rey and operational cuts in East China, increased domestic pulp production and sufficient raw material inventories helped offset supply-side constraints.
However, the latter half of the quarter saw a decline in prices, driven by weaker external demand and mounting pressures from surplus capacity in the papermaking industry. Stabilized raw material costs, such as kraft paper and wood pulp, further reduced the scope for price increases. While downstream sectors like e-commerce and consumer goods continued to show strong activity, their impact was insufficient to sustain early-quarter price levels amid a challenging macroeconomic environment and declining global demand.
Overall, Q4 2024 presented a dynamic landscape for corrugated boxes in the APAC region, shaped by initial stability followed by a gradual downturn in market prices.
Europe
The European market for corrugated boxes in Q4 2024 exhibited a mixed trend, with prices declining in the first half before stabilizing towards the latter part of the quarter. Early in the quarter, prices faced downward pressure due to constrained demand from industrial sectors like automotive manufacturing, which remained sluggish amidst broader economic challenges. The underutilization of vendor capacity and global supply chain inefficiencies, such as port congestion and delays in the Red Sea and U.S. ports, exacerbated the decline in price momentum.
However, the situation shifted mid-quarter as localized resilience in the packaging sector provided support. Seasonal restocking of raw materials like soda ash, coupled with increased demand from the e-commerce and retail sectors during the holiday season, helped stabilize prices. Rising upstream costs, particularly for kraft paper and energy, also contributed to the stabilization. Additionally, the adoption of sustainable packaging solutions driven by regulatory shifts and consumer preferences provided incremental demand support, further preventing price erosion.
While the manufacturing landscape in Europe struggled with systemic inefficiencies and high compliance costs, the packaging sector showcased adaptability, supporting corrugated box prices towards the quarter’s end.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs):
1. What is the current price of corrugated boxes in Europe (Germany)?
As of June 2025, the price of corrugated boxes in Germany stood at USD 650 per 1,000 pieces (FD Hamburg).
2. Who are the top corrugated box producers in the United States?
Major U.S. producers include International Paper, WestRock, Packaging Corporation of America (PCA), and Georgia-Pacific.
3. What factors are driving corrugated box prices in Europe?
Prices are being influenced by port congestion, rail infrastructure disruptions, steady FMCG and e-commerce demand, and summer-season packaging needs.
4. How is demand for corrugated boxes expected to trend in Q3 2025 in Europe?
Demand is expected to remain strong, especially from the FMCG and retail sectors, with pricing staying firm due to ongoing logistical constraints.
