For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Corrugated Box Price Index fell by 0.83% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weaker demand.
• The average Corrugated Box price for the quarter was approximately USD 1584.00/MT, reported on FOB.
• Corrugated Box Spot Price softened in December as converters discounted to clear elevated finished-goods inventories.
• Corrugated Box Price Forecast points to modest early-year recovery contingent on restocking and seasonal demand.
• Corrugated Box Production Cost Trend reflected elevated OCC and linerboard, marginally constraining the Price Index.
• Corrugated Box Demand Outlook stays muted, retailers drawing inventories reduced spot liftings and immediate procurement.
• Integrated mills kept operating rates, supplying ample containerboard and limiting upside for domestic box prices.
• Improving OCC collection and benign natural-gas costs tempered production spikes, easing upward pressure on prices.
Why did the price of Corrugated Box change in December 2025 in North America?
• Comfortable Midwest mill availability and steady operations increased supply, reducing sellers' pricing power in December.
• Converters' inventory build-ups and year-end cautious retailer buying suppressed spot liftings and demand for boxes.
• No feedstock or energy-cost shocks occurred, so lack of cost-side support allowed downward price momentum.
APAC
• In China, the Corrugated Box Price Index rose by 6.07% quarter-over-quarter, tightening supply and costs.
• The average Corrugated Box price for the quarter was approximately USD 460.33/MT excluding handling charges.
• Corrugated Box Spot Price firmed mid-quarter as mills passed higher wastepaper and winter energy surcharges.
• Corrugated Box Price Forecast points to modest upside from seasonal procurement and persistent feedstock costs.
• Corrugated Box Production Cost Trend rose as OCC and electricity costs increased, compressing mill margins.
• Corrugated Box Demand Outlook moderates post-promotions; FMCG and e-commerce volumes taper, reducing immediate procurement appetite.
• Corrugated Box Price Index softened in December as inventories increased and export enquiries remained subdued.
• Coastal mills maintained high operating rates while downstream inventories built, prompting sellers to trim offers.
Why did the price of Corrugated Box change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Balanced supply and easing seasonal demand in December reduced purchasing, leading to downward price pressure.
• Stable feedstock and energy costs meant no significant cost-push in December, limiting upward pricing momentum.
• Smooth domestic logistics and muted export enquiries left inventories, weakening negotiations and pressuring FOB levels.
Europe
• In Germany, the Corrugated Box Price Index rose by 2.01% quarter-over-quarter, due to constrained logistics.
• The average Corrugated Box price for the quarter was approximately USD 660.00/MT, supported by production.
• Corrugated Box Spot Price remained neutral as balanced containerboard supply met steady converter call-offs overall.
• Corrugated Box Price Forecast signals modest near-term softness as post-festive demand eases and inventories normalize.
• Corrugated Box Production Cost Trend showed limited energy-related pressure while recovered-fibre costs remained relatively stable.
• Corrugated Box Demand Outlook remains balanced as e-commerce parcel peaks offset weaker industrial export flows.
• Corrugated Box Price Index stability reflected adequate inventories and efficient logistics limiting upward pricing pressure.
• Domestic mills operated reliably, preserving export availability and supporting converters' run-rates without significant production disruptions.
Why did the price of Corrugated Box change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Logistical constraints at Hamburg constrained exports, but improved rail and motorway function reduced transhipment delays.
• Energy costs remained elevated, pressuring mill margins while producers absorbed costs through integration and surcharges.
• Balanced domestic demand from e-commerce and FMCG offset weaker industrial orders, leaving headline prices effectively unchanged.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Corrugated Box Price Index fell by 5.0% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting subdued demand.
• The average Corrugated Box price for the quarter was approximately USD 1597.33/MT per FOB Illinois.
• Corrugated Box Spot Price remained pressured during summer due to high inventories and muted buying.
• Corrugated Box Price Forecast indicates modest volatility with small monthly adjustments driven by seasonal demand.
• Corrugated Box Production Cost Trend shows mild easing as kraft paper input costs softened slightly.
• Corrugated Box Demand Outlook remains subdued with potential holiday-driven uplift expected later in fourth quarter.
• Corrugated Box Price Index reflects export weakness to Mexico and Canada, limiting upward pressure recently.
• Inventories at converters remained ample, prompting mills to prioritize throughput and offer selective discounts periodically.
Why did the price of Corrugated Box change in September 2025 in North America?
• Weak export orders and softened domestic demand reduced buying interest, pressuring FOB prices across quarter.
• Lower upstream kraft paper and recovered fibre costs eased production cost pressure, constraining supplier pass-through.
• Stable logistics and converter inventories removed urgency to buy, keeping bearish Price Index momentum near-term.
APAC
• In China, the Corrugated Box Price Index fell by 4.6% quarter-over-quarter, due to weak exports.
• The average Corrugated Box price for the quarter was approximately USD 434.00/MT reported by exporters.
• Corrugated Box Spot Price weakened amid ample mill inventories and subdued export inquiries from Southeast.
• Corrugated Box Price Forecast indicates mild recovery as seasonal restocking and festival preparations support exporters.
• Corrugated Box Production Cost Trend shows easing kraft paper input costs after earlier weather disruptions.
• Corrugated Box Demand Outlook remains cautious with domestic off-season weakness offset by limited export restocking.
• High mill inventories pressured Corrugated Box Price Index, prompting sellers to reduce offers to clear.
• Planned mill maintenance and shutdowns tightened supply briefly, supporting prices amid stronger festival-driven export scheduling.
• Export enquiries from Thailand, Vietnam, and Mexico remained muted, limiting upside despite mill price increases.
Why did the price of Corrugated Box change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Weakened export demand from Southeast Asia and Latin America reduced offtake, pressuring domestic FOB values.
• Easing kraft paper and wastepaper costs relieved input pressures, allowing mills to temper price increases.
• High mill inventories and cautious buyer procurement strategies limited spot buying, prolonging downward pricing momentum.
Europe
• In Germany, the Corrugated Box Price Index rose by 8.5% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting severe logistics disruptions.
• The average Corrugated Box price for the quarter was approximately USD 647/MT reported domestically during.
• Corrugated Box Spot Price stayed elevated amid outbound delays and freight surcharges at northern terminals.
• Corrugated Box Price Forecast signals moderation as port repairs and rail throughput restore outbound flows.
• Corrugated Box Production Cost Trend reflected higher kraft paper and terminal handling charges this quarter.
• Corrugated Box Demand Outlook remains constructive with FMCG and e-commerce restocking ahead of autumn activity.
• Corrugated Box Price Index volatility eased as inventory rebuild and cautious buyer behaviour tempered upside.
• Export demand softened from delayed shipments, keeping domestic availability tight and supporting near-term pricing resilience.
Why did the price of Corrugated Box change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Severe port and rail disruptions delayed outbound shipments, tightening supply and elevating near-term price pressure.
• Firm domestic FMCG and e-commerce procurement increased offtake while inventories remained low across German hubs.
• Higher kraft paper costs and freight premiums raised production cost trend, supporting pricing despite seasonality.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Corrugated Box Price Index performance for Q2 saw a total decline of about 3.22, with June ending at around USD 1641/MT.
• The main drivers included declining import demand especially from Mexico, tariff-related input cost volatility, and ongoing end user weakness across charts, e commerce, and industrial end users.
• Why did the price of Corrugated Box change in July 2025?
A sharp 4.48% drop reflected weak Mexican export orders, tariff related uncertainty on Canadian and Mexican pulp imports, and high domestic inventories.
• Oversupply risks manifested in May and June as manufacturers-maintained output amid declining order volumes, pressuring spot prices and depressing margins.
• Supply chain factors included stable kraft paper availability, uninterrupted logistics, but cautious corrugated Box production schedules from inventory build up reduced pricing power.
• Corrugated Box Upstream cost trends showed softening kraft paper and recycled fibre prices, offsetting some margin pressure despite weak demand.
• Corrugated Box demand outlook for Q3 remains subdued as FMCG, e commerce, and industrial restocking lull persists, with price sentiment leaning toward sideways to modestly lower trajectory.
APAC
• Corrugated Box FOB Shanghai prices declined by 7.2% in Q2 2025 compared to Q1, reflecting bearish sentiment and weak external demand.
• In China, overcapacity and weak exports to Southeast Asia (e.g., Vietnam, Thailand) dominated, while India saw stable FMCG-driven demand but limited bulk buying.
• Corrugated Box prices fell in April 2025 due to soft downstream demand, excess supply, and limited e-commerce-related uplift during the off-season.
• A 1.9 million tonne capacity addition between Apr-Jun intensified oversupply, compressing margins and restricting price recovery.
• Corrugated Box high inventories, stable production, and slow overseas procurement exerted constant pressure on spot market rates.
• Corrugated Box production cost support was short-lived, and mills operated at cautious rates amid poor order visibility and thin profitability.
• The Corrugated Box demand outlook for Q3 2025 remains subdued, with limited recovery expected due to ongoing global trade softness, off-season sluggishness in e-commerce, and muted overseas procurement from key markets like Southeast Asia. Persistent inventory overhang and cautious ordering from end-use sectors such as FMCG and retail are likely to keep consumption restrained.
• Corrugated Box prices are forecasted to stay soft through Q3 as seasonal demand weakness persists and global trade sentiment remains tepid, delaying recovery.
Europe
• Corrugated Box FD Hamburg prices rose by 20.5% in Q2 2025, reaching USD 650/MT in June amid severe logistics disruptions.
• FMCG and e-commerce demand remained strong while regulatory port constraints and congestion amplified delivery delays.
• Why did the price of Corrugated Box change in July 2025?
Logistical bottlenecks at Hamburg, including MSC relocation and automation works, tightened supply and pushed prices up.
• Hamburg faced the steepest impact, while Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven saw smoother operations but limited market relief.
• Corrugated Box Inventory levels remained tight as buyers advanced orders to navigate shipping delays, sustaining bullish demand sentiment.
• No major corrugated Box production issues occurred, but rail closures, truck restrictions, and yard congestion escalated costs and curtailed outbound supply.
• The demand outlook for Corrugated Box in Q3 2025 remains firm, supported by steady offtake from FMCG and e-commerce sectors, as buyers continue to advance purchases to mitigate ongoing logistical disruptions and delivery uncertainties.
• The Corrugated Box price forecast for Q3 indicates potential upward pressure if port congestion and inland transport bottlenecks persist, though any easing in logistics could stabilize the market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American corrugated box market experienced mixed pricing dynamics during the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a blend of operational adjustments, external trade pressures, and evolving demand patterns. Prices initially showed signs of modest recovery, supported by operational streamlining and steady raw material availability. However, this stabilization was short-lived as new tariff impositions on imports from Canada and Mexico disrupted cross-border supply chains, adding uncertainty to sourcing and production.
The resulting market unease contributed to a price decline toward the end of the quarter, with corrugated packaging prices falling by nearly 4%. Despite strong demand from the e-commerce and retail sectors and growing momentum in sustainable and smart packaging solutions, the packaging industry faced cautious procurement behaviours amid economic headwinds.
While long-term growth remains anchored in sustainability and digital innovation, short-term pricing was shaped more by trade policy shifts and market recalibration efforts, leading to an overall slightly downward price trend across the quarter.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2025, the corrugated box market in the APAC region exhibited a gradual downward price trend, largely influenced by declining raw material costs and cautious procurement behaviour. While the packaging industry in China and other key APAC markets maintained operational stability, subdued export demand and soft market sentiment weighed on pricing. Early in the quarter, prices remained relatively steady, supported by consistent domestic demand from the e-commerce and retail sectors, as well as a stable supply of corrugated paper.
However, as the quarter progressed, falling wood pulp prices and a slowdown in industrial activity placed downward pressure on market values. Temporary logistical challenges, including fog-related port disruptions in China and concerns over international pulp shipments, had only a limited impact on overall supply continuity. Buyers across the region continued to adopt a conservative purchasing approach, reflecting global economic uncertainties and reduced export momentum. Despite these headwinds, steady consumption in domestic markets, especially in Vietnam and China, helped prevent a more significant price decline.
Overall, the quarter concluded with a modest correction in corrugated box prices, shaped by a combination of cost-driven pressure and restrained demand.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2025, the European corrugated box market, particularly in Germany, experienced a progressive upward trend in prices, supported by strong downstream demand and intermittent supply chain disruptions. Early in the quarter, the market remained largely stable, as balanced supply-demand conditions and steady raw material availability kept pricing unchanged.
However, as the quarter progressed, operational disruptions at key logistics hubs, such as the Port of Hamburg, began to exert upward pressure on prices. Labour shortages, gate-in restrictions, and a pilot strike led to delays in container handling and constrained shipment flows, tightening supply conditions despite consistent demand from the retail, FMCG, and e-commerce sectors. Buyers responded to the growing uncertainty by increasing safety stock levels, further reinforcing bullish price sentiment. Rising raw material and freight costs also contributed to the firming trend.
By the end of the quarter, corrugated box prices had risen significantly, reflecting a market environment shaped by resilient demand, strategic stockpiling, and mounting logistical challenges.
