For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Cotton Prices in North America
- In United States, the Cotton Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by surging fertilizer costs.
- The Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026, while the consumer confidence reached 91.8 index.
- The Cotton Production Cost Trend escalated as the Producer Price Index increased 4.0% year-over-year in March 2026.
- The Manufacturing Index expanded and industrial production grew 0.7% year-over-year in March 2026, supporting domestic textile operations.
- Retail sales increased 4.0% year-over-year alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate in March 2026, sustaining baseline consumption.
- The Cotton Demand Outlook remained mixed as US clothing and accessories store sales inched up in March 2026.
- US cotton ending stocks expanded in February 2026, while export shipment volumes strengthened earlier in January 2026.
- The Cotton Price Forecast reflected upward pressure after US cotton production assessments declined during February 2026.
Why did the price of Cotton change in March 2026 in North America?
- Retail fertilizer prices and liquid nitrogen costs spiked significantly across the region in March 2026.
- Gasoline and fuel prices spiked in March 2026, elevating regional transportation and agricultural harvesting expenses.
- Global cotton ending stocks increased in March 2026, balancing the upward cost pressures on prices.
Cotton Prices in APAC
- In China, the Cotton Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by strengthened downstream spinning demand.
- The Cotton Demand Outlook improved in March 2026 as industrial production grew 5.7% year-over-year, boosting textile manufacturing.
- The Cotton Production Cost Trend increased in March 2026, aligning with a 0.5% year-over-year rise in producer prices.
- Sluggish retail sales growth of 1.7% and a 1.0% consumer inflation rate limited domestic apparel consumption in March 2026.
- An unemployment rate of 5.4% in March 2026 and a 91.6 consumer confidence index in February 2026 constrained spending.
- The Manufacturing Index expanded in March 2026, reflecting a recovery in factory activity and supporting raw material procurement.
- Textile and garment export volumes experienced rapid growth during January and February 2026, driving raw material consumption.
- The Cotton Price Forecast remained positive in March 2026 due to declining accessible mill stocks and rising input costs.
Why did the price of Cotton change in March 2026 in APAC?
- Downstream spinning enterprise demand for raw materials strengthened significantly across the region in March 2026.
- Seed cotton input costs and urea fertilizer feedstock expenses moved upward steadily during Q1 2026.
- Accessible cotton stocks at surveyed spinning mills declined, tightening immediate supply availability in March 2026.
Cotton Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Cotton Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, primarily driven by surging agricultural input costs.
- The Cotton Demand Outlook weakened significantly as consumer confidence hit -24.7 and CPI rose 2.7% in March 2026.
- Retail sales grew 0.7% and unemployment remained stable at 4.2% in February 2026, supporting baseline cotton apparel consumption.
- The Cotton Production Cost Trend increased despite overall producer prices declining 0.2% in March 2026, due to fertilizers.
- Industrial production stagnated at 0.0% in February 2026, while the Manufacturing Index expanded steadily in March 2026.
- Urea fertilizer, anhydrous ammonia, and diesel fuel costs surged significantly during March 2026, directly elevating cotton cultivation expenses.
- Global cotton supply tightened amid drought conditions, though European import availability stabilized for industrial consumption in Q1 2026.
- Textile mill purchasing activity remained subdued throughout Q1 2026, which historically influenced a cautious Cotton Price Forecast.
Why did the price of Cotton change in March 2026 in Europe?
- Urea fertilizer and liquid nitrogen input costs surged significantly during March 2026, elevating overall cultivation expenses.
- Low producer offerings and severe drought conditions tightened overall cotton market availability during Q1 2026.
- Freight, packaging, and diesel fuel costs strengthened overall textile supply chain expenses during Q1 2026.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Cotton Prices in North America
- In United States, the Cotton Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025 to 1433 USD/MT , pressured by weak global demand.
- Global cotton stockpiles were projected higher in Q4 2025, contributing to a sluggish market.
- Cotton production costs for US growers remained above market prices in Q4 2025, influencing planting decisions.
- US industrial production expanded 2.0% year-over-year in December 2025, indicating increased demand for raw cotton.
- US retail sales grew 3.3% year-over-year in November 2025, driving demand for finished cotton products.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025, increasing input costs for cotton farming.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 3.0% year-over-year in November 2025, indicating rising producer costs.
- Natural gas spot prices in the US gradually rose in the final months of 2025, impacting energy costs.
Why did the price of Cotton change in December 2025 in North America?
- Weak global demand and subdued economic activity pressured cotton prices in Q4 2025.
- Rising global cotton stockpiles, projected higher in Q4 2025, contributed to a sluggish market.
- US tariffs on cotton-importing countries disrupted supply chains and elevated costs in 2025.
Cotton Prices in APAC
- In China, the Cotton Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by subdued consumer spending and 5.1% unemployment.
- Cotton production costs rose in Q4 2025, due to surging phosphate and urea fertilizer prices during October-December 2025.
- Domestic raw cotton demand weakened in Q4 2025, as textile and apparel end-user demand slowed.
- China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating weak inflationary pressure.
- The Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, reflecting weak manufacturer pricing power.
- Retail sales growth weakened to 0.9% year-on-year in December 2025, impacting cotton-based finished goods demand.
- Industrial Production increased 5.2% year-on-year in December 2025, supporting manufacturing activity for cotton products.
- Global cotton stocks tightened in Q4 2025, while domestic cotton imports declined sharply.
- The Manufacturing Index expanded in December 2025, yet fiber substitution with cheaper synthetics increased.
Why did the price of Cotton change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Weak consumer spending, with retail sales growing 0.9% in December 2025, dampened cotton demand.
- Production costs climbed from surging phosphate and urea fertilizer prices in Q4 2025.
- Domestic raw cotton demand weakened, with textile and apparel end-user demand slowing in Q4 2025.
Cotton Prices in Europe
- In Germany, Cotton Price Index fell in Q4 2025, driven by contracting manufacturing and 2.5% PPI decline in December 2025.
- German consumer confidence declined to -17.5 in December 2025, tempering demand for cotton-based consumer goods.
- The Consumer Price Index rose by 1.8% year-on-year in December 2025, eroding consumer purchasing power.
- Industrial production in Germany rose by 0.8% year-on-year in October 2025, providing slight underlying demand.
- Germany's unemployment rate of 6.2% in December 2025 remained slightly bearish, impacting discretionary spending.
- Input costs for German manufacturers rose in December 2025, contributing to higher Cotton production costs.
- Retail sales in Germany increased by 1.1% year-on-year in November 2025, offering some support for cotton demand.
- Foreign orders for German manufacturing declined sharply in December 2025, exacerbating competitive pressure on exports.
- Global cotton ending inventory decreased for 2024/2025, while global production increased, impacting supply.
Why did the price of Cotton change in December 2025 in Europe?
- New orders for German manufacturing fell sharply in December 2025, reducing cotton demand.
- Producer Price Index declined by 2.5% year-on-year in December 2025, reflecting weaker demand.
- Consumer confidence declined to -17.5 in December 2025, impacting spending on cotton products.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
Cotton Prices in North America
- In United States, the Cotton Price Index rose in Q3 2025, driven by rising costs and declining global stocks.
- Cotton production costs increased in Q3 2025, influenced by higher fertilizer, labor, and diesel fuel prices.
- Inflationary pressures impacted costs, with Consumer Price Index up 3% (September 2025) and Producer Price Index up 2.6% (August 2025).
- Demand outlook was mixed; retail sales increased 5.42% in September 2025, yet consumer confidence declined.
- Industrial production showed sluggish growth, up 0.1% year-over-year in September 2025, limiting raw material demand.
- The 4.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 indicated a stable labor market, influencing consumer spending.
- Global and U.S. cotton ending stocks were forecast to decrease for 2025/26, tightening supply.
- U.S. cotton exports were projected higher for 2025/26, with strong sales observed at Q3 2025 close.
- The Cotton Price Index is forecast to remain firm or rise, supported by supply constraints and elevated costs.
Why did the price of Cotton change in September 2025 in North America?
- Rising production costs, with Consumer Price Index up 3% in September 2025, pressured cotton prices.
- Declining global and U.S. cotton stocks, plus lower production forecasts, tightened supply.
- Strong U.S. retail sales, up 5.42% in September 2025, supported cotton product demand.
Cotton Prices in APAC
- In China, the Cotton Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining consumer purchasing power.
- Cotton production costs trended upward in Q3 2025, driven by accelerating input cost inflation in September 2025.
- Cotton demand outlook remained flat in MY 2025/26 due to increased substitution towards synthetic fibers.
- The Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, signaling reduced textile production and lower raw cotton demand.
- Industrial production expanded 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating increased textile manufacturing activity.
- Retail sales increased 3% year-on-year in September 2025, reflecting stronger consumer demand for cotton goods.
- Ample domestic cotton stocks in MY 2025/26, combined with a 5.2% unemployment rate, pressured the Cotton Price Index.
- Raw cotton imports to China increased in September 2025 month-over-month, despite significant year-on-year decrease.
- Why did the price of Cotton change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Consumer Price Index decreased 0.3% year-on-year in September 2025, weakening purchasing power for cotton goods.
- Producer Price Index declined 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025, suggesting lower demand from the manufacturing sector.
- Ample domestic cotton stocks in MY 2025/26, alongside flat consumption, exerted downward price pressure.
Cotton Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Cotton Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to weak industrial production.
- Cotton production costs were influenced by weakening raw cotton costs and declining European natural gas prices.
- The Cotton demand outlook remained subdued, with manufacturing activity contracting in Germany during Q3 2025.
- Germany's Industrial Production decreased by 1% in September 2025, impacting demand for cotton textiles.
- Retail sales in Germany rose modestly by 0.2% in September 2025, indicating weak consumer spending.
- Global cotton ending stocks tightened in Q3 2025, while production forecasts were revised downwards.
- The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3% in September 2025, pressuring household disposable income.
- Consumer Price Index increased by 2.4% in September 2025, reducing purchasing power for cotton goods.
Why did the price of Cotton change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Industrial Production in Germany decreased by 1% in September 2025, reducing demand for cotton.
- Consumer Price Index increased by 2.4% in September 2025, limiting consumer spending on cotton products.
- Producer prices of industrial products decreased by 1.7% in September 2025, reflecting lower input costs.
