For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, the Cotton Price Index rose in Q3 2025, driven by rising costs and declining global stocks.
• Cotton production costs increased in Q3 2025, influenced by higher fertilizer, labor, and diesel fuel prices.
• Inflationary pressures impacted costs, with Consumer Price Index up 3% (September 2025) and Producer Price Index up 2.6% (August 2025).
• Demand outlook was mixed; retail sales increased 5.42% in September 2025, yet consumer confidence declined.
• Industrial production showed sluggish growth, up 0.1% year-over-year in September 2025, limiting raw material demand.
• The 4.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 indicated a stable labor market, influencing consumer spending.
• Global and U.S. cotton ending stocks were forecast to decrease for 2025/26, tightening supply.
• U.S. cotton exports were projected higher for 2025/26, with strong sales observed at Q3 2025 close.
• The Cotton Price Index is forecast to remain firm or rise, supported by supply constraints and elevated costs.
Why did the price of Cotton change in September 2025 in North America?
• Rising production costs, with Consumer Price Index up 3% in September 2025, pressured cotton prices.
• Declining global and U.S. cotton stocks, plus lower production forecasts, tightened supply.
• Strong U.S. retail sales, up 5.42% in September 2025, supported cotton product demand.
APAC
• In China, the Cotton Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining consumer purchasing power.
• Cotton production costs trended upward in Q3 2025, driven by accelerating input cost inflation in September 2025.
• Cotton demand outlook remained flat in MY 2025/26 due to increased substitution towards synthetic fibers.
• The Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, signaling reduced textile production and lower raw cotton demand.
• Industrial production expanded 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating increased textile manufacturing activity.
• Retail sales increased 3% year-on-year in September 2025, reflecting stronger consumer demand for cotton goods.
• Ample domestic cotton stocks in MY 2025/26, combined with a 5.2% unemployment rate, pressured the Cotton Price Index.
• Raw cotton imports to China increased in September 2025 month-over-month, despite significant year-on-year decrease.
Why did the price of Cotton change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Consumer Price Index decreased 0.3% year-on-year in September 2025, weakening purchasing power for cotton goods.
• Producer Price Index declined 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025, suggesting lower demand from the manufacturing sector.
• Ample domestic cotton stocks in MY 2025/26, alongside flat consumption, exerted downward price pressure.
Europe
• In Germany, the Cotton Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to weak industrial production.
• Cotton production costs were influenced by weakening raw cotton costs and declining European natural gas prices.
• The Cotton demand outlook remained subdued, with manufacturing activity contracting in Germany during Q3 2025.
• Germany's Industrial Production decreased by 1% in September 2025, impacting demand for cotton textiles.
• Retail sales in Germany rose modestly by 0.2% in September 2025, indicating weak consumer spending.
• Global cotton ending stocks tightened in Q3 2025, while production forecasts were revised downwards.
• The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3% in September 2025, pressuring household disposable income.
• Consumer Price Index increased by 2.4% in September 2025, reducing purchasing power for cotton goods.
Why did the price of Cotton change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Industrial Production in Germany decreased by 1% in September 2025, reducing demand for cotton.
• Consumer Price Index increased by 2.4% in September 2025, limiting consumer spending on cotton products.
• Producer prices of industrial products decreased by 1.7% in September 2025, reflecting lower input costs.
