For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Crotonaldehyde Prices in North America
- In the United States, the Crotonaldehyde Price Index rose in Q4 2025, driven by increasing production costs.
- Production costs increased in Q4 2025, influenced by a 2.7% year-over-year CPI rise in December 2025.
- The Producer Price Index increased 3.0% year-over-year in November 2025, indicating higher input costs.
- Industrial production expanded 2.0% year-over-year in December 2025, supporting downstream demand.
- Retail sales increased 3.3% year-over-year in November 2025, boosting demand for Crotonaldehyde derivatives.
- Ethylene feedstock costs rose in October 2025 due to tighter supply, impacting production expenses.
- Natural gas feedstock costs moved upward in Q4 2025, contributing to higher energy expenses.
- Acetaldehyde demand remained soft in Q4 2025, particularly from coatings and adhesives sectors.
- Consumer confidence declined in December 2025, influencing purchases of durable goods and packaged foods.
- Ethanol feedstock prices decreased in December 2025 due to abundant supplies and record production.
Why did the price of Crotonaldehyde change in December 2025 in North America?
- Overall production costs increased due to a 2.7% year-over-year CPI rise in December 2025.
- Consumer confidence declined in December 2025, influencing durable goods and packaged food purchases.
- Ethanol feedstock prices decreased in December 2025, driven by abundant supplies and record production.
Crotonaldehyde Prices in APAC
- In China, the Crotonaldehyde Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by weak consumer demand and falling producer prices.
- Crotonaldehyde production costs declined in Q4 2025, as South China coal prices significantly decreased throughout 2025.
- Demand outlook faced headwinds from low Retail Sales, which rose only 0.9% year-on-year in December 2025.
- The Manufacturing Index expanded in December 2025, indicating growth in industrial sectors utilizing Crotonaldehyde derivatives.
- Industrial Production rose 5.2% year-on-year in December 2025, supporting demand for Crotonaldehyde in industrial applications.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) fell -1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, reflecting weak industrial demand and oversupply.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose only 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating weak consumer demand for end-products.
- A 5.1% unemployment rate in December 2025, combined with low CPI, suggested subdued consumer confidence and spending.
- The assessed price of Crotonaldehyde for Q4 was 2415 USD/MT.
Why did the price of Crotonaldehyde change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Producer Price Index (PPI) fell -1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, reflecting weak industrial demand.
- South China coal prices held below multi-month lows in December 2025, reducing production costs.
- Retail Sales rose only 0.9% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating subdued consumer spending.
Crotonaldehyde Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Crotonaldehyde Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by declining producer prices and weak industrial demand.
- Crotonaldehyde production costs declined in Q4 2025, as producer prices fell by -2.5% year-on-year in December 2025.
- Brent crude oil spot prices declined in December 2025, easing feedstock cost pressures for Crotonaldehyde production.
- The Manufacturing Index was contracting in December 2025, signaling weakening industrial demand for Crotonaldehyde.
- Industrial production in Germany rose by 0.8% year-on-year in October 2025, offering modest support for Crotonaldehyde demand.
- Consumer confidence was significantly negative in December 2025, despite retail sales rising 1.1% in November 2025.
- Stable consumer prices (CPI 1.8% in December 2025) were offset by a 6.2% unemployment rate in December 2025.
- New orders in German manufacturing surged in November 2025, providing some positive signal for future demand.
Why did the price of Crotonaldehyde change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Producer prices declined by -2.5% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating deflationary pressures.
- The Manufacturing Index was contracting in December 2025, signaling weak industrial demand.
- Consumer confidence was significantly negative in December 2025, reducing demand for end-products.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
Crotonaldehyde Prices in North America
- In the United States, the Crotonaldehyde Price Index remained stable quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, reflecting mixed market signals.
- Crotonaldehyde production costs faced upward pressure from a 2.6% Producer Price Index increase in August 2025, impacting raw material expenses.
- Weak industrial production, up only 0.1% in September 2025, challenged Crotonaldehyde demand from manufacturing sectors.
- Despite a 3% Consumer Price Index increase in September 2025, robust retail sales (5.42% YoY) supported some Crotonaldehyde end-use applications.
- A low 4.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 bolstered Crotonaldehyde demand outlook by supporting consumer purchasing power.
- Declining consumer confidence (index 94.2) in September 2025 suggested cautious spending, impacting Crotonaldehyde demand in durable goods.
- Natural gas prices eased in September 2025, offering some relief to Crotonaldehyde production costs amidst global chemical oversupplies.
- Global ethylene oversupply in Q3 2025 exerted downward pressure on general chemical prices and margins, influencing Crotonaldehyde.
Why did the price of Crotonaldehyde change in September 2025 in North America?
- Rising input costs, driven by a 2.6% Producer Price Index increase in August 2025, pressured Crotonaldehyde production expenses.
- Weak industrial production, up only 0.1% in September 2025, dampened Crotonaldehyde demand from manufacturing.
- Eased natural gas prices in September 2025 provided some cost relief, partially offsetting other inflationary pressures.
Crotonaldehyde Prices in APAC
- In China, the Crotonaldehyde Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by negative producer price inflation.
- Production costs were affected by moderate ethylene price gains and fluctuating naphtha feedstock costs in Q3 2025.
- Demand was supported by China's industrial production expanding 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025.
- However, a contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025 indicated reduced new orders, affecting Crotonaldehyde demand.
- Robust automotive production and sales in Q3 2025, especially NEVs, provided a positive demand driver for derivatives.
- High ethylene inventories in China and APAC throughout Q3 2025 contributed to an oversupplied domestic market.
- Consumer confidence at 89.6, a -0.3% Consumer Price Index, and 5.2% unemployment in September 2025 suggested weak spending.
- Retail sales grew 3% year-on-year in September 2025, indirectly boosting demand for Crotonaldehyde in consumer goods.
- The Crotonaldehyde price forecast suggests continued stability with potential for slight declines due to persistent overcapacity.
Why did the price of Crotonaldehyde change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Negative producer price inflation of -2.3% in September 2025 reduced pricing power for producers.
- Ample ethylene inventories in China and APAC created an oversupplied market, pressuring prices.
- A contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025 signaled reduced industrial demand for intermediates.
Crotonaldehyde Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Crotonaldehyde Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter, driven by subdued industrial demand and easing energy costs.
- Crotonaldehyde production costs moderated in Q3 2025 due to lower natural gas and crude oil prices.
- The Crotonaldehyde demand outlook is bearish, with industrial production declining 1% in September 2025.
- Chemical industry inventories remained elevated in Q3 2025, indicating oversupply amidst weakened overall demand.
- Germany's Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, signaling reduced activity in downstream sectors.
- Retail sales in Germany rose slightly by 0.2% in September 2025, offering minor support for consumer-facing derivatives.
- The Crotonaldehyde Price Index faced downward pressure from a 1.7% Producer Price Index decrease in September 2025.
- Rising general costs, indicated by a 2.4% Consumer Price Index increase in September 2025, impacted on overall operational expenses.
- The stable 6.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 provided neutral support for consumer-related end-uses.
Why did the price of Crotonaldehyde change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Industrial production declined 1% in September 2025, reducing Crotonaldehyde demand.
- Producer prices fell 1.7% in September 2025, lowering Crotonaldehyde production costs.
- Elevated inventories and a contracting Manufacturing Index exerted downward price pressure.
