For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the United States, the Crotonaldehyde Price Index remained stable quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, reflecting mixed market signals.
• Crotonaldehyde production costs faced upward pressure from a 2.6% Producer Price Index increase in August 2025, impacting raw material expenses.
• Weak industrial production, up only 0.1% in September 2025, challenged Crotonaldehyde demand from manufacturing sectors.
• Despite a 3% Consumer Price Index increase in September 2025, robust retail sales (5.42% YoY) supported some Crotonaldehyde end-use applications.
• A low 4.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 bolstered Crotonaldehyde demand outlook by supporting consumer purchasing power.
• Declining consumer confidence (index 94.2) in September 2025 suggested cautious spending, impacting Crotonaldehyde demand in durable goods.
• Natural gas prices eased in September 2025, offering some relief to Crotonaldehyde production costs amidst global chemical oversupplies.
• Global ethylene oversupply in Q3 2025 exerted downward pressure on general chemical prices and margins, influencing Crotonaldehyde.
Why did the price of Crotonaldehyde change in September 2025 in North America?
• Rising input costs, driven by a 2.6% Producer Price Index increase in August 2025, pressured Crotonaldehyde production expenses.
• Weak industrial production, up only 0.1% in September 2025, dampened Crotonaldehyde demand from manufacturing.
• Eased natural gas prices in September 2025 provided some cost relief, partially offsetting other inflationary pressures.
APAC
• In China, the Crotonaldehyde Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by negative producer price inflation.
• Production costs were affected by moderate ethylene price gains and fluctuating naphtha feedstock costs in Q3 2025.
• Demand was supported by China's industrial production expanding 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025.
• However, a contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025 indicated reduced new orders, affecting Crotonaldehyde demand.
• Robust automotive production and sales in Q3 2025, especially NEVs, provided a positive demand driver for derivatives.
• High ethylene inventories in China and APAC throughout Q3 2025 contributed to an oversupplied domestic market.
• Consumer confidence at 89.6, a -0.3% Consumer Price Index, and 5.2% unemployment in September 2025 suggested weak spending.
• Retail sales grew 3% year-on-year in September 2025, indirectly boosting demand for Crotonaldehyde in consumer goods.
• The Crotonaldehyde price forecast suggests continued stability with potential for slight declines due to persistent overcapacity.
Why did the price of Crotonaldehyde change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Negative producer price inflation of -2.3% in September 2025 reduced pricing power for producers.
• Ample ethylene inventories in China and APAC created an oversupplied market, pressuring prices.
• A contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025 signaled reduced industrial demand for intermediates.
Europe
• In Germany, the Crotonaldehyde Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter, driven by subdued industrial demand and easing energy costs.
• Crotonaldehyde production costs moderated in Q3 2025 due to lower natural gas and crude oil prices.
• The Crotonaldehyde demand outlook is bearish, with industrial production declining 1% in September 2025.
• Chemical industry inventories remained elevated in Q3 2025, indicating oversupply amidst weakened overall demand.
• Germany's Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, signaling reduced activity in downstream sectors.
• Retail sales in Germany rose slightly by 0.2% in September 2025, offering minor support for consumer-facing derivatives.
• The Crotonaldehyde Price Index faced downward pressure from a 1.7% Producer Price Index decrease in September 2025.
• Rising general costs, indicated by a 2.4% Consumer Price Index increase in September 2025, impacted on overall operational expenses.
• The stable 6.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 provided neutral support for consumer-related end-uses.
Why did the price of Crotonaldehyde change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Industrial production declined 1% in September 2025, reducing Crotonaldehyde demand.
• Producer prices fell 1.7% in September 2025, lowering Crotonaldehyde production costs.
• Elevated inventories and a contracting Manufacturing Index exerted downward price pressure.
