For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The crude oil market in North America witnessed a stable to bullish trend during the Q1 of 2024. The market was primarily influenced by several factors such as the rising demand for oil due to the economic recovery, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions.
The IEA has drastically lowered the projected growth rate of the world's crude oil consumption in 2024 to just 1.2 million barrels per day. The increase in global oil prices during the Spring Festival holiday was aided by favorable conditions, and the fears about inflation may grow as U.S. producer prices rose more than anticipated in January despite sharp increases in service costs.
The market sentiments were also influenced by the OPEC+ decision to maintain the production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. The trend and seasonality analysis in Q1 of 2024 revealed a moderate increase in crude oil prices in the United States. Tightening Supplies and Strong Demand Drive the oil prices higher as the lower-than-expected decrease in US crude oil inventories swung the market sentiments higher. Extreme winter weather across much of the nation, but especially in North Dakota, the third-largest oil-producing state, caused a decrease in U.S. crude oil output which further affected the prices in recent times.
Asia Pacific
During the first quarter of 2024, the APAC region's crude oil market faced a range of challenges that affected market dynamics and prices. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to be a key factor, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply and contributing to price volatility. The imposition of a windfall profit tax by the Indian government also had an impact on crude oil prices during this quarter. This tax discouraged investment in the oil and gas sector and reduced the competitiveness of Indian oil and gas companies in the global market. The increased consumption of petroleum products, such as bitumen used in road construction, was the cause of the growth in demand. Due to increased mobility, India's need for gasoline increased by 75,000 barrels per day annually. The rising demand for gasoline was also influenced by sustained strong vehicle sales in January, which rose by 15% year over year. According to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, the overall domestic consumption of downstream petroleum products has increased from 19757 (1000 per metric tonne) to 21091 (1000 per metric tonne) in India during March when compared to February 2024.
Europe
The crude oil market in the Europe region experienced significant fluctuations and challenges during the first quarter of 2024. The primary reason for these fluctuations was the increase in crude oil prices as OPEC+ countries implemented production cuts, resulting in a decrease in supply. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Yemen, contributed to market uncertainties and further impacted crude oil prices. Additionally, the US and the UK launched further attacks on the Red Sea, adding to the already high level of tensions which has surged the overall risk sentiment in the oil markets. The attacks by Houthi militants on commercial ships in the Red Sea persisted, causing shipping corporations to reroute their ships around the southern tip of Africa, resulting in higher transportation costs and longer travel times for bunker fuel. According to reports, ship operators sped up their vessels to reduce the two or three journeys from the Middle East to Europe, but the longer route still required nearly twice as long to travel as the Suez Canal which further added shipping delays during this timeframe.
MEA
The first quarter of 2024 for crude oil in the MEA region was marked by bullish market sentiment, with high demand and low supply. The global crude oil prices were impacted by various factors, including Saudi Arabia's voluntary supply cut and Russia's potential output cuts which escalated tensions in the Middle East. Mounting tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Red Sea, raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies. This risk premium has pushed prices up as traders anticipate potential supply shortages. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund's optimistic economic growth forecast for the year fuels demand expectations, further supporting higher prices. The alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope due to security concerns has caused major shipping delays and cancellations, impacting oil deliveries in the overseas market. In line with the announcement of Saudi Arabia which stated that the official crude oil supply for all regions, including its largest market in Asia, would be lowered in the second quarter. The overall market situation was optimistic about the rising concerns and hence, benchmarks increased, impacting the final prices of the quoted offers stood at USD 80 per barrel WTI during March 2024.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The fourth quarter of 2023 was a challenging period for the North American crude oil market due to various supply and demand factors. The prolonged effects of the pandemic and the increasing shift towards renewable energy have led to a decline in demand for crude oil.
Moreover, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, along with the uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production policies, have further pressurized the market. Despite these challenges, the United States has emerged as a significant player in the global crude oil market, with a surge in production and exports.
The trend for crude oil prices in the USA has been bearish, with a decline of 2.1% compared with both the quarter. The main reasons for this decline are the increased inventory levels, weak demand, and uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ policies. The correlation between crude oil prices and the US dollar has been significant, with a negative trend observed throughout the quarter. The latest price of crude oil WTI per barrel in the USA at the quarter ending December 2023 was USD 73.05/ barrel.
Asia
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the APAC region experienced fluctuations in crude oil prices. Despite the supply cuts by major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia which limited the availability of crude oil. The prices of Crude oil in the OPEC basket remained deteriorated. Furthermore, the easing of US sanctions on Venezuela opened up opportunities for Indian refiners to access cheaper crude oil, potentially reshaping their import landscape. This influx of Venezuelan crude oil provided a cost-effective alternative for Indian buyers and contributed to the overall demand for crude oil in the region. Additionally, the Indian government raised the windfall tax on domestic crude oil sales, which further affected the prices in the country. As per the reports, following the suits marketing companies (OMCs) including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation reduce fuel prices during this timeframe. Overall, the APAC region experienced a bearish market for crude oil, with various factors influencing the prices. The quarter-ending price of crude oil WTI in India was USD 73 per barrel.
Europe
The fourth quarter of 2023 proved to be a challenging period for the crude oil market in Europe, with several factors impacting the prices to showcase a bearish trend. The ongoing concerns about weakening demand worldwide and booming US oil production and export strategies continued to hamper the supply/demand equilibrium, leading to market fluctuations. Additionally, attacks by Houthi militants in Yemen on merchant vessels in the Red Sea caused major shipping lines to avoid the Suez Canal, a crucial global shipping route. Despite these factors, coupled with the IEA's confirmation of slowing global oil demand, cast further shadows over the oil prices. Germany, being one of the major consumers of crude oil in the region, witnessed a moderate decline in demand due to the slowdown in its manufacturing sector. The trend for crude oil prices in Germany followed the bearish sentiments, with a decline of 1.2% in comparison to the previous quarter. The latest quarter-ending price for crude oil Brent in Germany was USD 78/ barrel.
MEA
The fourth quarter of 2023 for crude oil in the MEA region was marked by a bearish market sentiment, with low demand and high supply. The global crude oil prices were impacted by various factors, including Saudi Arabia's voluntary supply cut till year-end, Russia's potential output cuts, and the lack of full commitment to production cuts from some OPEC+ members. The escalating tensions in the Middle East also added to the downward pressure on prices, with concerns about global oil supply disruption. Saudi Arabia, being the largest oil producer in the world, had a significant impact on the market. The country continued its voluntary supply cut till year-end, which had a positive impact on the prices. However, the increased crude oil production in Nigeria Angola, and the US further added to the global supply, pressuring the prices. The trend for Saudi Arabia was bearish, with a low demand and moderate supply. The correlation price percentage for the country was -5%, indicating a decrease in prices compared to the previous year's same quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Crude oil prices rebounded sharply in the third quarter of 2023 after experiencing a decline in the second quarter amid reduced inventory levels in the US reserves. The WTI Crude oil prices were rising due to a combination of factors including peak driving season in North America during July as the demand for refined oil products was high from the downstream industries. As a ripple effect, the constant decline in the oil inventories further put upward pressure on the Crude oil prices. As per the data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that oil inventories declined by 63.9 mb in August, led by a massive 102.3 mb draw in Crude oil stocks. However, the continuous surge in the Federal Reserve's interest rate tends to slow economic growth, but the rebound in economic data in August depicted by The producer price index (PPI) of final demand in August increased by 0.7% month on month suggested that US economy was still resilient to drive the strong demand for Crude oil. Overall, the outlook for Crude oil prices in the USA was bullish throughout the quarter.
Asia
After witnessing the downtrend in the second quarter, Crude oil prices experienced exponential growth throughout the third quarter of 2023 amid supply tightening in the global market. The tightening of production policies by OPEC and Saudi Arabia has reduced the global supply of Crude oil, which was driving up prices during July. Moreover, the recovering demand for Crude oil in China sharpened the global market as China is the world's second-largest oil consumer, and its demand during the peak travel season boosted the demand for downstream gasoline and aviation fuel. Furthermore, the sudden surge of Crude oil demand from China boosted the oil prices globally. Similarly, on the supply side, total Russian oil imports to India fell by 23.4% month-on-month in August to 1.47 million barrels per day (bpd) which is the lowest decline during this year. Interestingly, to conquer the high prices of Crude oil, the Indian Ministry implemented a Windfall tax on the exporting products along with the increase in export tax. In line, shipments of Crude oil from Saudi Arabia to India fell over 33 % during September which further supported the bullish price trend.
Europe
During the third quarter, the overall Crude oil prices in the European market remained bullish compared to the previous quarter. Brent benchmark has touched the mark of 90 USD/barrel during September which was a record level highest mark ever since the pandemic. Despite the rising interest rates by the European Central Bank, the European market has generally digested the expectations of the Federal Reserve during this timeframe. During July, the price of Brent Crude oil rose above $80 per barrel, while the discounts paid by buyers of Russia's main Urals export blend have narrowed to around $20 as the increased demand for Russian oil from China and India, and a decrease in supply of Russian Crude oil due to sanctions of war affected the Brent Crude oil to rise exponentially throughout the period. Furthermore, Crude oil prices were boosted by falling refined product stocks such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in Europe and a drop in the 2-year U.S. treasury yields. All the above-mentioned factors have played a pivotal role in the recent rise in oil prices.
MEA
Throughout the third quarter, global Crude oil values experienced an unexpected surge in the market amid the announcement of a production cut by Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter. The voluntary cutting by OPEC+ production by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in July and August, on top of broad reductions by OPEC and its allies limit the Crude oil supply which has supported oil prices. Furthermore, Russia's export restrictions on its oil exports have further tightened the supply of Crude oil. Talking about the demand side, the improving refining margins in Asia, particularly for middle distillates has increased the demand for Saudi Arabia's Crude oil, which contains high sulfur content. As a result of these factors, Saudi Arabia announced to raise its price for Arab Light Crude for sale to Asian refiners in September. Alongside, Saudi Arabia has extended its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of September which further hampered the supply chain activities within the international market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
During the second quarter, the overall Crude oil market in the US contracted as compared to the first quarter, which was highly influenced by the volatile market sentiment and changing demand. During the first two weeks of April, Crude oil prices had increased by 3.38% due to induced market sentiments despite having announcement of production cuts by OPEC+ countries. As per the data, the Industrial Production Total Index in the US rose from 102.6 (March) to 103.1 (April) amid economic activities to improve. Afterward, a tight labor market and raised FD rate hampered the demand for Crude oil to remain low throughout the quarter, due to which overall prices decreased after witnessing multiple fluctuations. A significant drop of 11.3% was observed from April to June. The increasing concern over recession in the US has negatively impacted oil prices. A temporary rise in prices was observed in May due to the wildfire in Canada, followed by the rising inflation rate, and the US dept ceiling deal prompted the prices to be volatile.
Asia
During the second quarter, the overall crude oil trend remained volatile in the Chinese market. The sluggish economic growth of China and the US have impacted fluctuating Crude oil prices. As per the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, the value-added industry growth rate of China rose from 3.9% (March) to 5.6% (April). On a monthly basis, prices showcased an overall increment during April, despite having high inventories by OPEC+ countries. However, OPEC+ indicated a production cut in order to protect margins which hampered the price trend to be low during May in China. Additionally, slow economic growth with deepening concerns of recession in the US has affected the demand fundamentals of crude oil in China. Moreover, the demand in the Chinese market remained low due to the spread of covid infection amid dullness in market activity. China has announced an interest rate cut, an attempt to stimulate the economy and trading growth, which boosted demand for Crude oil in June.
Europe
During the second quarter, the overall Crude oil in the European market remained bearish compared to the previous quarter. The expected hike in interest rates during mid-April boosted the dollar index. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for other currencies, affecting the prices to be temporarily inclined. Economic uncertainties and high inflation influenced the prices to continuously fluctuate and settle at USD 76.37 per tonne for Brent Crude oil at the end of May. Despite Russia invading Ukraine, Russia managed to sail its cargo more to the Asian market, affecting the May price trend. Moreover, investors sell their assets, such as commodities, out of fear of the banking crisis and global recession, contributing to oil prices' downfall. Additionally, the demand for crude oil remained low, which propelled the prices to fluctuate in a narrow range. However, market prices of Crude Oil have rebounded globally during June after an insurrection by Russian mercenaries. The growing geopolitical tension and political instability hampered the overall pricing trend of crude oil during H2 of June 2023.
MEA
During the second quarter, the overall price trend of crude oil fluctuated due to several announcements made by Saudi Arabia, one of the largest exporters of crude oil globally. The average Brent crude oil price in Saudi Arabia for the second quarter of 2023 was 73.6 USD per barrel. In April, Saudi Arabia announced to cut down crude oil production by 50000 barrels per day, followed by other OPEC+ members, including United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman, within the same time frame. Crude oil surges as Saudi Arabia extends voluntary cuts in production by another one million barrels per day effective from July to cover its importing bills and government spending. Effectively, the production of Saudi Arabia went down to around 9 mbpd in the quarter ending June compared with 10.5 mbpd in April. Meanwhile United Arab has increased its output, hampering the prices inclined. However, throughout the second quarter, the global economic recovery led to weaker demand for oil, which affected the prices to be volatile.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In North America, crude oil demand remained low throughout the quarter due to the underwhelming outlook on economic activities, despite no significant disturbances in the supply chain. According to the data, WTI crude oil prices declined from USD 79/barrel to USD 74/barrel within the first quarter of 2023. World oil supply improved by 830,000 barrels per day in February, primarily driven by improved demand from the US and Canada after winter storms and other disturbances. However, prices kept their downtrend as Asian players opted for Russian crude, which was available at cheaper rates.
Asia
During Q1 2023, Asian players started opting for Russian crude oil to gain profits, as it was available at cheaper rates. China's slow recovery remained a matter of concern for the global crude oil market, as it was lower than expected and did not allow the price of crude oil to rise globally. Additionally, major Asian countries like India started importing crude oil from Russia, even after the ban and sanctions imposed by the West and the USA. Moreover, the global crude oil inventory level surged due to unexpectedly dull demand in the international market amidst the rise in inventory levels.
Europe
The global economic slowdown kept the European market at its low for the entire quarter as a repercussion of the Russia-Ukraine war. According to the data, the European market kept on suffering from high inflation and slow economic activities in the region. Despite the multiple sanctions and bans on Russia, including the price cap on Russian crude and natural gas, Russia managed to sail its cargo to the Asian market. Furthermore, the UK remained the most affected country by inflation and slow economic activities. However, some experts believe that Europe may not go into recession this year.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Crude Oil prices fell throughout the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of discussions about capping the price of Russian crude Oil and a pessimistic market attitude. Europe and America have been attempting to penalize Russia ever since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out by imposing sanctions and a prohibition on imports and exports. However, inventories in the USA decreased throughout the second half of Q4, resulting in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) reaching its lowest level of 387 million barrels since 1984. However, the operations of numerous refineries were impacted by the ice storm Elliot that swept across Canada and the United States just before Christmas. In conclusion, during Q4 2022, the price dropped and fluctuated between USD 87 per barrel and USD 77 per barrel.
APAC
The fourth quarter of 2022 saw fluctuations in the price of Crude Oil, wiping away any gains made during the OPEC+ meeting. The world's top importer of Crude Oil, China, however, was forecasting worsening gasoline demand amidst mounting worries about a worldwide economic slowdown. Meanwhile, after rumors that the US government could release Oil from its strategic petroleum reserves to quell the growing Crude Oil offers on the global market, it was observed that both benchmarks fell consecutively during the second half. However, several market players believed that the change in the market sentiments had impacted the Crude Oil trend for a short period, resulting in the fluctuation of Crude Oil throughout the fourth quarter of 2022.
Europe
Global Crude Oil prices started declining during the fourth quarter of 2022. The discussion on putting a cap on Russian Crude Oil also affected the pricing dynamics of the product in the global market and remained part of positive market sentiments. As per the sources, US inventories remained five years low during the end of the fourth quarter, thus affecting the market outlook for Crude Oil. Also, major Oil producers and consumers had introduced the idea of capping Russian Crude Oil. However, Russia previously warned these nations against doing this and asked them to get ready for the consequences. Conclusively, the price for Crude Oil Brent declined and settled at USD 92/barrel (average) during November 2022.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In July, the global Crude Oil market was staggering downward amidst the rising inflation and higher rates in the western regions. In the last month, the E.U. decided to put a complete embargo on the imports of Russian Ural Crude, further weakening the market participants' sentiments. Whereas the resurgence of COVID in China, authorities were forced to restrict the 30 million people in six different provinces. In response, the offers for Crude since the start of the month have plunged by USD 10 per barrel. In addition, several market experts indicated this phenomenon as the start of the recession in the western markets. As a ripple effect, the discussions for the WTI in the U.S. were settled at USD 95 per barrel in the second week of July.
Asia
WTI crude oil price kept on falling throughout the quarter, and the overall steep downtrend was observed during the last week of September. Despite the fact that global crude oil value has been slipping, supplies remained tight. Consequently, frequent ups and downs and high price volatility were observed for the product in the global market. Further, crude oil consumption remained firm in the Indian market as the festivities were about to hit the market. Additionally, key players are anxious about the crude future, as OPEC might opt for a supply cut in the coming weeks.
Europe
Germany's economy was trying to reduce its dependence on Russian energy. However, weeks of extremely low water levels on the Rhine disrupted logistics and added to Germany's energy headache, with the industry temporarily switching to more coal and crude oil due to Russia's demand for energy imports plummeting. The increase of crude oil in the Russian energy scenario is the primary reason behind the Crude oil price hike in the German market. The price of German crude oil was recorded at around USD 99.31/M.T. Crude Oil Brent USD/Barrels with an increment of 4.37% on a week-on-week basis during the final week of August 2022.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
During the second quarter of 2022, the Crude Oil market in the North American region observed a significant change in the market trajectory amidst the surged inquiries from the overseas market. Since the retaliatory sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the E.U. on Russia, numerous countries that support the sanctions and import Crude Oil from Russia have restrategized the source of Crude Oil from other sources. As a ripple effect, inquiries from Northeast Asia and Europe divert to the U.S. domestic market during the second quarter of 2022. At the same time, several inquiries redirect toward the middle eastern region. As a ripple effect, the discussions for the WTI Crude soared to historical highs and averaged at USD 112.45 per barrel during the quarter ending in June 2022.
Asia Pacific
In the second quarter of 2022, the Crude Oil market in the Asia Pacific region witnessed a persistent gyration in the market dynamics and value of the upstream energy amidst the geopolitical differences across the countries. The Northeast Asian and Oceania countries that source hefty volumes of Crude from Russia have restrategized to source Crude Oil from other suppliers due to the western sanctions. Whereas China and India consistently procure their cargoes from Russia after the Russian authorities decided to put a hefty discount on the offers of Crude Oil. In addition, India restrategized its scheme to source Crude Oil as the prices were staggering at historical highs. As a ripple effect, the discussions for Crude Oil in APAC averaged USD 94.5 per barrel in June.
Europe
The European region is primarily the most impacted region by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the eastern region. In response, the U.S., and the E.U., with the support of several other nations, imposed hefty sanctions on Russian Energy supplies. In retaliation, Russia announced only trading in Rubel to strengthen the domestic currency value and offered a significant discount to the nations in the Asia Pacific market interested in importing the Russian Urals. In the second half of the quarter, E.U finally decided to put an embargo on Russian Crude Oil except for the countries with refineries that directly source Crude Oil through inland pipelines. As a ripple effect, the prices for Crude Oil in Europe staggered at historical highs and averaged at USD 112.45 per barrel in June 2022.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In North America, the prices of crude oil skyrocketed during the first quarter of 2022 after they escalated from USD82.25 to USD107.24/barrel from January to March 2022. In the first month of Q1, WTI Crude Oil breached seven-year highs, closing on USD86.96/barrel on 19th January. Despite the commitment by OPEC+, the supplies remained disrupted, rather the production was 35% below than the expected levels. Exacerbating unrest in Kazakhstan, Libya supply outages along with geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, worsened the supply shortage pushing up the crude futures. A fire on a pipeline transporting crude oil from Iraq's Kirkuk oil fields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan for export in mid-January sent shockwaves through the crude oil market, exacerbating supply chain concerns given Iraq's position as OPEC's second-largest producer. Crude oil prices hit new highs for the first time in eight years in the second half of Q1 of this year. More few releases from the strategic will likely be announced by the US administration. Several Western countries imposed harsh penalties against Russian enterprises in order to deter Putin's hostility.
Asia Pacific
The price trend of crude oil showcased a major escalation in quarter 1 of 2022 after the values shot up from USD88.15 to USD107 per barrel from January and March. India began to see an increase in its oil import bill due to the surge in international oil prices, which surpassed USD100 in H2 of Q1 for the first time in nearly eight years since 2014, as it imports more than 80% of its crude oil from the international market. The crude and gas markets intensified as tensions between the two countries rose following Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to launch "military actions" along the Ukraine border. However, India was unconcerned about the supply disruption due to political turmoil, as Russia accounted for only 1% of the country's total imports in 2021.
Europe
The record high prices of oil and Natural gas severely hit the European energy market in the 1st quarter of 2022 after the Russia’s aggressive military attack on Ukraine. In Q1, Russian profits from oil and gas sales rose, but imports plummeted as companies fled the country in defiance of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, resulting in a significant surplus in Russian goods and services trade. Despite tremendous international condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the country continued to sell oil to its primary export markets in the first quarter. China and India, as well as other Asian importers, continued to buy Russian oil at steep discounts, while Europe continued to buy natural gas. For the most part, Europe continued to acquire Russian oil, despite the fact that many European giants said in early March that they would no longer trade with spot Russian crude and oil products following the invasion of Ukraine. The values for Brent Crude Oil in Germany were evaluated at USD118.30 per barrel in the month ending March.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In Q4 2021, Crude Oil market had experienced an overall downward trend in the North American region. In October and November, Crude Oil values continued to be buoyant back by supply tightness and firm demand. The effect of Ida hurricane that led to the shut-down of refineries, had been faced by the Crude oil market in this quarter also. However, in the last month of the quarter a steep decline in the Crude Oil offers was seen as an effect of increasing coronavirus cases across the world that appeared as threat to the demand outlook of Crude. Moreover, improvement in supplies also aided the pricing trend. Hence, WTI Crude Oil month average prices were assessed at USD 71.84/barrel in December witnessing a decline of around USD 10/barrel since October.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, Crude Oil values witnessed a downward trajectory during the fourth quarter of 2021. Though the demand outlook remained firm in all the Asia Pacific countries throughout the quarter. In October, Crude Oil prices rose efficiently backed by the slump in Chinese coal and other commodities during the early trade. However, in November Crude Oil values tumbled down on the back of improvement in availability as American President urged the countries like China, Japan, South Korea and others to release their inventories of crude oil for boosting the overall output. Moreover, in Crude Oil prices further plummeted in the last month of the quarter due to the rising threat of fall in demand on the back of spreading new corona virus variant “Omicron” across the world. Hence, in India Crude Oil WTI monthly average prices dropped from USD 83.47/barrel in October to USD 71.57/barrel in December.
Europe
The European Crude Oil market appeared to be bullish because of robust demand and tightened supplies during the fourth quarter of 2021. Crude Oil prices continued to be firm throughout the period due to the natural gas crisis in the European region therefore demand pressure shifted to Crude. However, a marginal dip in the prices of Crude Oil was seen in December under the fear of slump in demand due to rising number of Omicron cases. Thus, Brent Crude Oil (Germany) monthly average prices remained rangebound and hovered around USD 79.45/barrel to USD 80.70/barrel in the timeframe of October to November.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The North American crude oil market had experienced mixed prospects in Q3 of 2021. Hurricane Ida which made its landfall near Port Fourchon on the Gulf coast in the last week of August had taken offline 96% of crude oil and 94% of natural gas production in the U.S. federally administered areas of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), according to estimates by the U.S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. At least nine refineries had either shut down or had reduced production of Crude oil. The gross inputs into Gulf Coast refineries fell by 1.6 million b/d from the week ending August 27 to the week ending September 3. Many refineries had resumed operations by September end.
Asia Pacific
In the third quarter of 2021, the demand for Crude Oil remained moderate to high in the Asia Pacific region. The Chinese government’s 9th September decision to auction crude oil stocks from reserves is anticipated to reduce imports by at least 2% y-o-y. In lieu of the new policy, the government had conducted its first auction on 24th September where 7.38 million barrels were offloaded from the state reserves. The government is likely to offload more crude oil stocks in future auctions. With this move, China seemed ready to influence the globe crude market openly as the world's top crude importer with the biggest crude inventory auctions of times. In India, the price of Crude oil was last assessed at USD 75.03 per barrel in September, showing an increase of USD 6.53 per barrel within the third quarter of 2021.
Europe
The European Crude Oil market had shown mixed prospects during the third quarter of 2021. Energy shortages in the European region continue to impact oil markets, with diesel futures in deep backwardation, driven by a switch to gasoil/diesel for power generation in Q3. Demand remained robust throughout the quarter. June spot prices of European Brent Crude were assessed at USD 74.92 per barrel.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
Restored industrial activities in the US Gulf Coast improved the Crude Oil market outlook in the North American region. Restart of several refineries and crackers surged the consumption of Crude Oil. As a result, the U.S. Crude Oil stockpiles continued to fall due to the continuous consumption and increased refiners operating rates. The regional Crude Oil supplies were dented by the cyber-attack in the colonial pipeline in second quarter of 2021. Inventory drawdowns further added to the supply side pressure despite hovering demand uncertainties form the Asian economies due to the resurgence of the pandemic. Amidst increased industrial activities and better volume offtakes, WTI Crude Oil prices continued to strengthen in Q2, with the offers observing a multi fold surge on m-o-m basis. WTI Crude oil was assessed at USD 70.04 per barrel in June with a hike of USD 8.46 per barrel over May.
Asia Pacific
During the second quarter of 2021, Crude Oil supplies in the Asia Pacific region were balanced with demand outlook uncertain due to surge in COVID related complications in India which further restricted the public movement and limited the industrial activities for a larger part of the second quarter. Whereas China reported surge in Brent Crude offtakes from Iran. Asia’s Crude demand surged in June as the mass vaccination programmes eased the restrictions in several parts of the region and the market sentiments continued to strengthen. As a ripple effect, the Crude Oil price trend in India observed continuous gains after gradual downfall in April. Price of Brent Crude reached USD 71.23 per barrel in June, showing an increment of USD 9.53 per barrel within the second quarter of 2021.
Europe
The supply outlook of Crude Oil in the European region improved in the second quarter of 2021, owing to the restart of several producers in the Middle East. However, shipments to Asia and the Middle East were hindered during the quarter starting. Further amelioration in the arbitrage conditions with USA, proportionally increased the import volumes as the shipping rates dropped in the western region. Demand outlook was bolstered as the regional offtakes increased amid the restart of several crackers and refineries along with the better downstream production rates. Mass vaccination programme and surged market activities supported the demand of Crude Oil. Europe Brent Crude spot prices in June were assessed at USD 73.16 per barrel.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
Crude Oil market in the North American region experienced the severe downfall in supplies as extreme freeze weather conditions in Texas and nearby of US Gulf coast area, resulting in regional production cuts by the Crude Oil extractors. The demand showed mixed sentiments due to the shutdown of major US Gulf Coast based refineries including those of Dow Chemicals, ExxonMobil, and force majeures on various downstream petrochemical units in mid-February. Motiva Enterprises announced to shut its 607,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas, refinery, the largest in the United States after Valero Energy Corp and Total SE declared to shut their 335,000 and 225,000 bpd plants in Texas, due to the cold snap. Colonial Pipeline Co, the largest oil products pipeline in the US, reported no significant impact due to storm in its operations. Storm effects stalled energy distribution hampered sending ripples to the price. WTI Crude jumped to USD 66 per barrel on 11th March, to its several months high in a single day.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
The crude oil market remained resolutely high in the APAC region, amidst major consumers seeking more barrels with the demand turning robust as various downstream industries restarted again after a turnaround. Refiners maintained their key focus on the Chinese and Indian spot demand as operations ramp up turning fuel demand high. Indian Oil Corp. (IOCL) issued a tender in mid-March seeking sweet crude from West Africa and other regions while China's Rongsheng closed a buy tender for purchase of nearly 3 million barrels of crude from Oman, Murban crude and Upper Zakum in mid-March. Crude futures rose as OPEC+ supplies remained tight with demand expected to increase as global economic activity picks up.
Europe
The European Crude oil futures dwindled as the demand slumped with slowed market sentiments and other restricted economic activities throughout the region. The refiners seemed uncertain with renewed lockdown restrictions in Europe and affected supplies as winter storm hit several parts of the southern United States in February. Nearly all petroleum inventories for crude and related products have increased in March, with a massive change reported from January and February. Several suppliers were heard struggling to find buyers with storage tanks sufficiently stocked as fresh COVID wave restrained movement and regional energy demand.
For the quarter ending December 2020
North America
Backed by the presence of various players, North America maintains a huge crude oil production capacity. In the final quarter of 2020, production rates remained similar to pre Covid-19 levels however the demand was still facing setbacks due to slowed rebound in some of the downstream industries. Contrary to the expectations, in October crude oil prices dropped further 4% in USA. Fall in prices affected most of the oil producing companies and thousands of people lost their jobs. Although Storm Zeta in the Gulf of Mexico temporarily eased the fall in its prices due to the forced measured declared on several production facilities of that region. Number of rigs in USA increased by the end of the quarter but USA as well as Canada was heard looking forward to slow down the crude oil production in upcoming years just to reduce their carbon emission.
Asia
Crude oil market in Asian countries experienced a fair growth in the final quarter of 2020 as the effect of pandemic slowed down. Nation wise lockdown in major countries created a devastating situation for crude oil sector. In October most of the Asian countries like India and China considerably revived from the effects of Covid19 and opened their economies again. Moving to November the petroleum sector rebounded effectively by a promising number of around 10% and thus at the end of the fourth quarter demand came close to the normal conditions. The demand is likely to witness a further boom in first quarter of 2021 as the aviation sector is on the road to utilize its full capacity. Aviation sector rebounded at around 13% per month (in India) in the final quarter of 2020, after suffering from an immense drop in the first half of the year. Thus, on the last day of 2020, OPEC daily basket prices of Brent Crude climbed to USD 51.80 barrel while US West Texas Crude reached USD 48.52 a barrel.
Middle East
Last quarter of 2020 was not good for some middle east countries, they faced huge financial crises due to consistent fall in crude oil prices. In addition, OPEC imposed an oil production quota on its member countries to limit the production of crude oil. The quota made the situation worst for countries like Iraq as their economies are majorly dependent on Crude oil production. However, Kurdistan, an independent oil producing country based in Middle East was heard taking advantage of OPEC’s mandate and thus catered enhanced revenue over its commodity peers bound under OPEC. Market sentiments turned optimistic in the end of fourth quarter of 2020, when OPEC gave hopes to ease the strict mandate from January.
