For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Crude Oil Prices in North America
- In USA, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 18.54% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tightened exports and geopolitical disruptions.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 70.33/Barrel, based on weekly observations.
- Market noted the Crude Oil Spot Price tightened as rerouting and insurance premia constrained cargo availability.
- Analysts raised the Crude Oil Price Forecast for Q2 amid persistent Hormuz closures and higher risk-premia.
- Upstream bottlenecks and regulatory fees lifted the Crude Oil Production Cost Trend, supporting near-term margins.
- Refinery draws and seasonal fuel demand support the Crude Oil Demand Outlook despite softer industrial consumption.
- Inventory shifts and export logistics altered the Crude Oil Price Index trajectory, prompting increased hedging by refiners.
- Producer outages and Permian bottlenecks intermittently pressured flows while spot premiums acutely influenced procurement decisions.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in March 2026 in North America?
- Strait of Hormuz disruptions sharply reduced seaborne crude availability, elevating risk premia and import uncertainty.
- US inventory draws and refinery throughput increases tightened domestic balances, amplifying price sensitivity to supply shocks.
- Elevated shipping costs and insurance premiums increased delivered costs, prompting precautionary buying and tighter spot market liquidity.
Crude Oil Prices in APAC
- In China, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 18.85% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger geopolitical risk.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 75.67/Barrel, supported by freight.
- Crude Oil Spot Price rallied as tanker delays and insurance premia tightened physical cargo competition.
- Analysts moved the Crude Oil Price Forecast higher given escalating Hormuz risks and shipping disruptions.
- Supply bottlenecks, equipment tariffs and labour constraints lifted the Crude Oil Production Cost Trend noticeably.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook brightened as refiners increased runs to rebuild inventories ahead of spring.
- Tight export availability and precautionary buying elevated the Crude Oil Price Index across trading hubs.
- Chinese refinery demand and nearby export bids supported firm offers, sustaining tightness in spot markets.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in March 2026 in APAC?
- Strait of Hormuz disruptions curtailed seaborne exports, immediately tightening supply and raising regional risk premia.
- Rising freight and insurance costs increased delivered crude costs, pressuring bids and elevating landed prices.
- Refiners rebuilt inventories amid higher runs, boosting procurement while domestic Permian growth remained recently limited.
Crude Oil Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 18.85% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting geopolitical supply tightness.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 75.67/Barrel, reported in Germany.
- Elevated geopolitical risk, Hormuz disruptions lifted Crude Oil Spot Price, tightening the Price Index upward.
- Analysts adjusted the Crude Oil Price Forecast higher amid shipping delays and constrained export flows.
- Rising input costs and regulatory fees pushed the Crude Oil Production Cost Trend modestly higher.
- Refinery restocking and seasonal fuel demand strengthened Crude Oil Demand Outlook in European refining centers.
- Rising US inventories and muted arbitrage reduced export demand, tempering the Crude Oil Price Index.
- Gulf and Santa Ynez outages constrained Crude Oil flows, supporting firm sentiment, narrowing downside risks.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in March 2026 in Europe?
- Strait of Hormuz disruptions sharply reduced seaborne flows, creating a supply shock to European importers.
- Higher insurance and freight costs increased landed import costs, pressuring margins and supporting elevated prices.
- Refinery restocking and precautionary buying amid geopolitical uncertainty boosted demand, further tightening European physical balances.
Crude Oil Prices in MEA
- In Saudi Arabia, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 18.54% quarter-over-quarter, amid export tightness.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 70.33/Barrelreflecting regional volatility.
- Crude Oil Spot Price stayed volatile as Hormuz disruptions and reroutes tightened seaborne supply regionally.
- Crude Oil Price Forecast indicates near-term firmness with geopolitical premiums outweighing modest inventory replenishment prospects.
- Crude Oil Production Cost Trend is rising due to drilling constraints and higher materials costs.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook remains resilient for refinery inputs, while industrial and petrochemical procurement softens.
- Price Index pressure reflected rerouted exports, tanker delays, and precautionary refinery stock builds regionally earlier.
- Operational outages and logistics bottlenecks at terminals constrained flows, reinforcing short-term market tightness and premiums regionally
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in March 2026 in MEA?
- Strait of Hormuz closure and tanker reroutes curtailed exports, increasing regional supply risk and premium.
- Insurance and freight cost increases plus logistical delays raised transaction costs, compressing available arbitrage opportunities.
- Refinery stock-building and inventory draws tightened usable supply, prompting precautionary buying and stronger spot bids.
Crude Oil Prices in South America
- In Brazil, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 18.5% quarter-over-quarter, driven by Hormuz disruptions.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 70.33/Barrel, reflecting import-parity margins.
- Crude Oil Spot Price volatility increased as shipment reroutes and insurance premia tightened seaborne availability.
- Crude Oil Price Forecast shows short-term firmness due to geopolitical risk premium and refinery restocking.
- Crude Oil Production Cost Trend rose as upstream bottlenecks and regulatory fees increased drilling expenses.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook remains supportive from refinery feedstock needs and precautionary inventory building activity.
- Regional Crude Oil Price Index strength was amplified by export re-routing and higher charter costs.
- Brazilian export demand and rising inventories plus operational disruptions kept market sentiment tight through March.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in March 2026 in South America?
- Strait of Hormuz closures reduced seaborne exports, increasing risk premiums and tightening global crude availability.
- U.S. refinery draws and precautionary restocking raised short-term demand while inventories declined in importing-hubs.
- Upstream operational bottlenecks and higher completion costs constrained supply growth, supporting persistent upward price pressure.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Crude Oil Prices in North America
- In the USA, the Crude Oil Price Index fell by 9.18% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting broad inventory builds.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 59.33/Barrel, per wholesale assessments.
- Crude Oil Spot Price slid as record U.S. output and inventory builds pressured Price Index.
- Crude Oil Price Forecast indicates mild volatility as OPEC+ output increases counter seasonal refinery demand.
- Crude Oil Production Cost Trend remained modestly lower with efficiency gains easing upstream breakeven pressures.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook softened amid trade tensions and weaker manufacturing, reducing product offtake volumes.
- U.S. stock builds and softer exports constrained bids, keeping Crude Oil Spot Price under pressure.
- Operational outages alongside incremental OPEC+ barrels shaped availability, informing Crude Oil Price Forecast and rebalancing.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in December 2025 in North America?
- Oversupply from OPEC+ increases and record U.S. production expanded available barrels, pressuring December values materially.
- Commercial inventory builds and softer export demand increased storage contango risk, undermining near-term price support.
- Geopolitical flareups intermittently tightened prompt supplies, but overall easing risk sentiment kept prices subdued nevertheless.
Crude Oil Prices in APAC
- In China, the Crude Oil Price Index fell by 9.18% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting oversupply and weak demand.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 59.33/Barrel across China, reflecting muted industrial demand.
- Crude Oil Spot Price weakened amid abundant seaborne flows, pressuring the China Price Index and export differentials.
- Crude Oil Price Forecast points to modest near-term firmness driven by transit disruptions and seasonal refinery restocking.
- Crude Oil Production Cost Trend remains subdued as upstream breakevens eased, limiting immediate upside for domestic Chinese refiners.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook in China shows soft industrial fuel consumption, weighing on refined product cracks and procurement.
- Inventory builds and elevated exports compressed margins, leaving the Crude Oil Price Index vulnerable to further downside.
- Major producer run-rate restorations and OPEC+ adjustments influenced availability, constraining Chinese spot procurement and margins.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Heightened seaborne supplies and OPEC+ incremental output increased prompt availability, pressuring Asian crude balances and margins.
- Strong refinery runs and year-end restocking supported demand, partially offsetting oversupply and stabilising nearby physical differentials.
- Geopolitical transit disruptions and targeted sanctions intermittently tightened flows, adding short-lived bids amid otherwise bearish sentiment.
Crude Oil Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Crude Oil Price Index fell by 6.37% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting persistent oversupply and weak demand.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 63.67/Barrel, reflecting landed German import differentials and year-end position.
- Crude Oil Spot Price weakened through December as elevated inventories and muted export demand pressured spot differentials.
- Crude Oil Price Forecast suggests modest firmness into Q1 as OPEC+ steadies quotas and winter demand emerges.
- Crude Oil Production Cost Trend remained stable, feedstock and refinery input costs exerting limited upward pressure marginally.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook shows soft industrial demand offset by seasonal transport and heating-related petrochemical feedstock draws.
- Crude Oil Price Index reflected mixed refinery runs and occasional stock draws, producing limited week-to-week firmness only.
- Major producer operational shifts and sanctions influenced cargo availability, tightening some differentials despite broader oversupply concerns overall.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Rising OPEC+ and non-OPEC output increased seaborne supply, swelling commercial inventories and pressuring December prices.
- Weak industrial and transport fuel demand amid trade tensions softened offtake, reducing prompt physical demand.
- Geopolitical events and sanctions disrupted some flows, intermittently tightening availability yet not reversing bearish trend.
Crude Oil Prices in MEA
- In Saudi Arabia, the Crude Oil Price Index fell by 9.18% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting oversupply persistently.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 59.33/Barrel, reflecting logistical spreads.
- Crude Oil Spot Price weakened in December as the Price Index signalled abundant seaborne availability.
- Crude Oil Price Forecast showed limited upside as weak Demand Outlook and inventories constrained buying.
- Crude Oil Production Cost Trend remained stable; shipping cost declines failed to lift Price Index.
- Rising inventories and softer export demand pressured differentials, keeping the Crude Oil Price Index subdued.
- Saudi Aramco capacity additions expanded buffers, affecting the Crude Oil Spot Price and dampening procurement.
- Downstream petrochemical margins supported runs, but weak fuel demand left Crude Oil Price Index vulnerable.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in December 2025 in MEA?
- OPEC+ production additions increased seaborne supply in December, overwhelming demand recovery and pressuring prompt differentials.
- U.S. inventory draws were inconsistent, failing to offset global stock builds and leaving markets loose.
- Logistics disruptions and geopolitical incidents constrained cargo availability but could not reverse broader oversupply dynamics.
Crude Oil Prices in South America
- In Brazil, the Crude Oil Price Index fell by 9.18% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting oversupply and weaker runs.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 59.33/MT, reflecting logistical constraints.
- Crude Oil Spot Price differentials narrowed as prompt physical flows adjusted to expanding commercial inventory.
- Crude Oil Price Forecast points to mild downside risk given ongoing builds and muted demand.
- Crude Oil Production Cost Trend stayed lower as feedstock freight pressures eased for onshore operators.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook remains subdued with weaker petrochemical consumption and slower export growth near-term.
- Crude Oil Price Index reflected widening storage builds, pressuring differentials despite tightening from transit incidents.
- Operational disruptions and transit risks tightened prompt supply, yet OPEC+ modest increases sustained medium-term overhang.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in December 2025 in South America?
- Rising OPEC+ and non-OPEC production expanded seaborne flows, exacerbating Brazilian differentials and enlarging global surplus.
- Elevated commercial inventories and weaker exports compressed physical premiums, reducing prompt arbitrage and nearby demand.
- Logistics bottlenecks and refining parity supported draws, but structural oversupply limited sustained Brazilian price recovery.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In the USA, the Crude Oil Price Index rose 1.55% quarter-over-quarter, supported by export demand.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 65.33/MT, per weekly assessments.
- Crude Oil Spot Price exhibited volatility driven by recent geopolitical incidents and shifting inventory balances.
- Crude Oil Price Forecast suggests upside capped by OPEC+ supply increases despite refinery demand strength.
- Crude Oil Production Cost Trend remained subdued as productivity offset logistical and feedstock cost pressures.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook improved with gasoline demand spikes supporting refinery runs and exports strengthening.
- Crude Oil Price Index volatility reflected signals from inventories, rig counts, OPEC+ announcements, refining activity.
- Elevated U.S. commercial stocks and OPEC+ output increases constrained regional arbitrage and price recovery momentum.
- Operational cuts and disruptions in select producing regions supported prices despite overall global supply increases.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in September 2025 in North America?
- Increased OPEC+ output and sustained U.S. production expanded supply, outweighing intermittent inventory draws and exports.
- Weaker global demand signals and tariff uncertainty pressured sentiment, while shipping risks briefly supported prices.
- Refinery throughput, seasonal gasoline demand, and volatile geopolitics produced offsetting forces influencing weekly price movements.
APAC
- In China, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 1.55% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting marginal demand recovery.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 65.33/MT, supported by seasonal refinery demand.
- Crude Oil Spot Price volatility reflected alternating inventory builds and draws amid refinery throughput signals.
- Crude Oil Production Cost Trend showed modest easing as freight narrowed recently.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook improved seasonally with stronger transport fuel requirements, while industrial signals softened.
- Crude Oil Price Forecast points to range-bound prices as OPEC+ supply responses offset demand growth.
- Crude Oil Price Index movements were influenced by ARAMCO shipments, seaborne flows and refining outages.
- Export demand and inventories pressured Asian arbitrage, while local restocking supported refinery throughput momentum seasonally.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in September 2025 in APAC?
- OPEC+ announced output increases, adding supply that weighed on prices despite persistent localized geopolitical disruptions.
- Chinese refinery demand rose seasonally, supporting crude draws but overall imports and stock builds tempered gains.
- U.S. inventory swings and freight dynamics influenced arbitrage, creating short-term volatility across APAC seaborne markets.
Europe
- In Germany, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 1.49% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting inventory draws, disruptions.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 68.00/MT, reflecting seasonal demand.
- Crude Oil Spot Price volatility kept the Germany Price Index range-bound amid summer demand frictions.
- Analysts adjusted the Crude Oil Price Forecast lower, citing OPEC+ increases and mixed demand signals.
- Freight increases lifted the Crude Oil Production Cost Trend, squeezing refinery margins regionally.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook shows strong transport fuel demand yet weaker industrial, petrochemical feedstock consumption.
- Inventory swings and sustained seaborne exports moderated the Crude Oil Price Index, tempering upside pressure.
- Operational outages and incomplete OPEC+ compliance tightened supplies intermittently, supporting sporadic price recoveries in Germany.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in September 2025 in Europe?
- OPEC+ production increases and resumed seaborne flows raised supply, weighing on September prices across Europe.
- Inventories fluctuated with weekly draws and builds, creating mixed signals for German refiners and traders.
- Logistics disruptions and freight variability raised delivered costs, pressuring the domestic Crude Oil Price Index.
MEA
- In Saudi Arabia, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 1.55% quarter-over-quarter, on refinery draws.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 65.33/MT, per weekly averages.
- Crude Oil Spot Price volatility persisted amid divergent U.S. inventory flows and refining capacity differences.
- Crude Oil Price Forecast shows modest near-term weakness as OPEC+ reallocation meets seasonal consumption rhythms.
- Crude Oil Production Cost Trend edged lower with feedstock moderation and upstream utilization in fields.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook improved on peak travel and power-sector burn, sustaining refinery throughput support.
- Crude Oil Price Index weakness reflected OPEC+ allocations and reduced Chinese nominations pressuring regional buying.
- Export demand and inventory swings, producer ramp-ups and geopolitical disruption created mixed short-term price signals.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in September 2025 in MEA?
- OPEC+ raised September allocations, increasing supply and reducing previous scarcity premia across regional export markets.
- Chinese nomination adjustments and softer refinery intake reduced crude draws, weighing on regional price levels.
- Intermittent geopolitical attacks and volatile inventory swings created uncertainty, offsetting bearish supply signals.
South America
- In Brazil, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 1.55% quarter-over-quarter, supported by export reopenings.
- The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 65.33/MT, reflecting blended FOB.
- Crude Oil Spot Price volatility persisted as inventory builds and uneven exports pressured Brazilian sentiment.
- Crude Oil Price Forecast indicated modest upside for autumn, balancing OPEC+ increases against seasonal demand.
- Crude Oil Production Cost Trend softened amid growing supply additions and marginally lower extraction expenses.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook mixed as seasonal fuel consumption offset weaker industrial and export indicators.
- Crude Oil Price Index recovered modestly as fleet rerouting and higher refinery runs reduced exports.
- Major producers' operational upticks, notably Petrobras FPSO recoveries, tightened domestic balances and supported regional prices.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in September 2025 in South America?
- Increased OPEC+ scheduled output introductions pressured global supply, prompting downward influence on Brazilian crude prices.
- Domestic export reopenings and restored US access tightened Brazilian market, providing upward support to values.
- Inventories swings, robust summer fuel consumption, and logistical disruptions from regional conflicts created price volatility.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
- Crude oil prices declined by 10.2 on % quarter-on-quarter basis. Prices have declined in April and May; however, in June, crude oil prices rebounded to settle at WTI at USD 68.04/barrel by the last week of June—the highest since January.
- Prices recovered after early Q2 declines, triggered by escalating Iran-Israel tensions and supply disruption fears around the Strait of Hormuz.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in July 2025 in APAC?
- Prices stayed firm in early July as geopolitical tensions persisted, but softened demand and steady OPEC+ output capped gains.
- The Crude Oil Production Cost Trend fluctuated. Despite OPEC+ planning a July output hike of 411,000 bpd, supply remained tight due to Alberta wildfires, declining U.S. rig counts, and inventory drawdowns.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook improved in early June with higher U.S. refinery utilization (94.3%) and increased gasoline output ahead of summer. However, demand softened later due to economic concerns, tariff threats, and reduced Chinese crude imports.
- Domestic procurement in China was weak. May imports fell to 9.54 million bpd (−14% m/m) due to lower Middle East and Russian flows, while uncertainty over U.S. tariffs kept buyers cautious.
North America
- Crude oil prices in North America fell by approximately 9% quarter-on-quarter. WTI averaged around USD 65.11/barrel by June 30—the lowest in six months—before stabilizing near USD 68/barrel in early July 2025
- After an April–May downturn, prices rebounded in June as escalated Iran–Israel tensions pushed Brent above USD 74 and WTI toward the mid-70s.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in July 2025 in North America?
- Prices remained relatively firm in early July as geopolitical risk persisted. However, increased OPEC+ output, economic softening, and easing U.S. inventory draws capped upside momentum.
- Crude Oil Production Cost Trend: Despite OPEC+'s planned 411,000 bpd output increase in July, supply stayed tight due to Alberta wildfires and declining U.S. rig counts. U.S. commercial crude stocks declined significantly, putting upward pressure on costs.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook: U.S. refinery utilization climbed to ~94.3%, with gasoline production rising ahead of the summer driving season. However, demand later softened amid trade uncertainty, slowing Chinese imports (down ~14% to 9.54 mbpd in May), and global economic anxiety.
- Domestic procurement and importer behavior: Importers in the U.S. and Canada remained cautious. Inventory builds across non-OECD regions reduced urgency for fresh imports, and weak economic signals and tariff threats constrained procurement strategies.
Europe
- Crude oil prices in Europe declined by approximately 11.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, with Brent averaging around USD 72.73/barrel by the end of March before modest recovery in late June and early July.
- After earlier declines in April and May, prices rebounded in June, with Brent rising to near USD 76–77/barrel, supported by escalating Iran–Israel tensions and fears of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in July 2025 in Europe?
- Prices held firm in early July as geopolitical tensions persisted, but softening demand in Europe and steady OPEC+ output capped further gains.
- The Crude Oil Production Cost Trend fluctuated: although OPEC+ planned another output hike (~411 kbd in August), supply remained tight in Q2 due to Alberta wildfires, falling U.S. rig counts, and inventory drawdowns that offset bearish pressures.
- Crude Oil Demand Outlook showed mixed signals: early June saw improving refinery utilization (~85–90% in NW Europe) and rising gasoline output ahead of summer, but demand softened later due to slowing economic momentum and trade uncertainty, restraining consumption in Europe.
- Domestic procurement across Europe remained cautious: low downstream industrial activity, weak diesel and jet fuel appetite, and high uncertainty around U.S.–EU tariffs kept buying restrained despite elevated refining margins.
