For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In North America, crude oil demand remained low throughout the quarter due to the underwhelming outlook on economic activities, despite no significant disturbances in the supply chain. According to the data, WTI crude oil prices declined from USD 79/barrel to USD 74/barrel within the first quarter of 2023. World oil supply improved by 830,000 barrels per day in February, primarily driven by improved demand from the US and Canada after winter storms and other disturbances. However, prices kept their downtrend as Asian players opted for Russian crude, which was available at cheaper rates.
Asia
During Q1 2023, Asian players started opting for Russian crude oil to gain profits, as it was available at cheaper rates. China's slow recovery remained a matter of concern for the global crude oil market, as it was lower than expected and did not allow the price of crude oil to rise globally. Additionally, major Asian countries like India started importing crude oil from Russia, even after the ban and sanctions imposed by the West and the USA. Moreover, the global crude oil inventory level surged due to unexpectedly dull demand in the international market amidst the rise in inventory levels.
Europe
The global economic slowdown kept the European market at its low for the entire quarter as a repercussion of the Russia-Ukraine war. According to the data, the European market kept on suffering from high inflation and slow economic activities in the region. Despite the multiple sanctions and bans on Russia, including the price cap on Russian crude and natural gas, Russia managed to sail its cargo to the Asian market. Furthermore, the UK remained the most affected country by inflation and slow economic activities. However, some experts believe that Europe may not go into recession this year.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Crude Oil prices fell throughout the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of discussions about capping the price of Russian crude Oil and a pessimistic market attitude. Europe and America have been attempting to penalize Russia ever since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out by imposing sanctions and a prohibition on imports and exports. However, inventories in the USA decreased throughout the second half of Q4, resulting in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) reaching its lowest level of 387 million barrels since 1984. However, the operations of numerous refineries were impacted by the ice storm Elliot that swept across Canada and the United States just before Christmas. In conclusion, during Q4 2022, the price dropped and fluctuated between USD 87 per barrel and USD 77 per barrel.
APAC
The fourth quarter of 2022 saw fluctuations in the price of Crude Oil, wiping away any gains made during the OPEC+ meeting. The world's top importer of Crude Oil, China, however, was forecasting worsening gasoline demand amidst mounting worries about a worldwide economic slowdown. Meanwhile, after rumors that the US government could release Oil from its strategic petroleum reserves to quell the growing Crude Oil offers on the global market, it was observed that both benchmarks fell consecutively during the second half. However, several market players believed that the change in the market sentiments had impacted the Crude Oil trend for a short period, resulting in the fluctuation of Crude Oil throughout the fourth quarter of 2022.
Europe
Global Crude Oil prices started declining during the fourth quarter of 2022. The discussion on putting a cap on Russian Crude Oil also affected the pricing dynamics of the product in the global market and remained part of positive market sentiments. As per the sources, US inventories remained five years low during the end of the fourth quarter, thus affecting the market outlook for Crude Oil. Also, major Oil producers and consumers had introduced the idea of capping Russian Crude Oil. However, Russia previously warned these nations against doing this and asked them to get ready for the consequences. Conclusively, the price for Crude Oil Brent declined and settled at USD 92/barrel (average) during November 2022.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In July, the global Crude Oil market was staggering downward amidst the rising inflation and higher rates in the western regions. In the last month, the E.U. decided to put a complete embargo on the imports of Russian Ural Crude, further weakening the market participants' sentiments. Whereas the resurgence of COVID in China, authorities were forced to restrict the 30 million people in six different provinces. In response, the offers for Crude since the start of the month have plunged by USD 10 per barrel. In addition, several market experts indicated this phenomenon as the start of the recession in the western markets. As a ripple effect, the discussions for the WTI in the U.S. were settled at USD 95 per barrel in the second week of July.
Asia
WTI crude oil price kept on falling throughout the quarter, and the overall steep downtrend was observed during the last week of September. Despite the fact that global crude oil value has been slipping, supplies remained tight. Consequently, frequent ups and downs and high price volatility were observed for the product in the global market. Further, crude oil consumption remained firm in the Indian market as the festivities were about to hit the market. Additionally, key players are anxious about the crude future, as OPEC might opt for a supply cut in the coming weeks.
Europe
Germany's economy was trying to reduce its dependence on Russian energy. However, weeks of extremely low water levels on the Rhine disrupted logistics and added to Germany's energy headache, with the industry temporarily switching to more coal and crude oil due to Russia's demand for energy imports plummeting. The increase of crude oil in the Russian energy scenario is the primary reason behind the Crude oil price hike in the German market. The price of German crude oil was recorded at around USD 99.31/M.T. Crude Oil Brent USD/Barrels with an increment of 4.37% on a week-on-week basis during the final week of August 2022.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
During the second quarter of 2022, the Crude Oil market in the North American region observed a significant change in the market trajectory amidst the surged inquiries from the overseas market. Since the retaliatory sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the E.U. on Russia, numerous countries that support the sanctions and import Crude Oil from Russia have restrategized the source of Crude Oil from other sources. As a ripple effect, inquiries from Northeast Asia and Europe divert to the U.S. domestic market during the second quarter of 2022. At the same time, several inquiries redirect toward the middle eastern region. As a ripple effect, the discussions for the WTI Crude soared to historical highs and averaged at USD 112.45 per barrel during the quarter ending in June 2022.
Asia Pacific
In the second quarter of 2022, the Crude Oil market in the Asia Pacific region witnessed a persistent gyration in the market dynamics and value of the upstream energy amidst the geopolitical differences across the countries. The Northeast Asian and Oceania countries that source hefty volumes of Crude from Russia have restrategized to source Crude Oil from other suppliers due to the western sanctions. Whereas China and India consistently procure their cargoes from Russia after the Russian authorities decided to put a hefty discount on the offers of Crude Oil. In addition, India restrategized its scheme to source Crude Oil as the prices were staggering at historical highs. As a ripple effect, the discussions for Crude Oil in APAC averaged USD 94.5 per barrel in June.
Europe
The European region is primarily the most impacted region by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the eastern region. In response, the U.S., and the E.U., with the support of several other nations, imposed hefty sanctions on Russian Energy supplies. In retaliation, Russia announced only trading in Rubel to strengthen the domestic currency value and offered a significant discount to the nations in the Asia Pacific market interested in importing the Russian Urals. In the second half of the quarter, E.U finally decided to put an embargo on Russian Crude Oil except for the countries with refineries that directly source Crude Oil through inland pipelines. As a ripple effect, the prices for Crude Oil in Europe staggered at historical highs and averaged at USD 112.45 per barrel in June 2022.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In North America, the prices of crude oil skyrocketed during the first quarter of 2022 after they escalated from USD82.25 to USD107.24/barrel from January to March 2022. In the first month of Q1, WTI Crude Oil breached seven-year highs, closing on USD86.96/barrel on 19th January. Despite the commitment by OPEC+, the supplies remained disrupted, rather the production was 35% below than the expected levels. Exacerbating unrest in Kazakhstan, Libya supply outages along with geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, worsened the supply shortage pushing up the crude futures. A fire on a pipeline transporting crude oil from Iraq's Kirkuk oil fields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan for export in mid-January sent shockwaves through the crude oil market, exacerbating supply chain concerns given Iraq's position as OPEC's second-largest producer. Crude oil prices hit new highs for the first time in eight years in the second half of Q1 of this year. More few releases from the strategic will likely be announced by the US administration. Several Western countries imposed harsh penalties against Russian enterprises in order to deter Putin's hostility.
Asia Pacific
The price trend of crude oil showcased a major escalation in quarter 1 of 2022 after the values shot up from USD88.15 to USD107 per barrel from January and March. India began to see an increase in its oil import bill due to the surge in international oil prices, which surpassed USD100 in H2 of Q1 for the first time in nearly eight years since 2014, as it imports more than 80% of its crude oil from the international market. The crude and gas markets intensified as tensions between the two countries rose following Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to launch "military actions" along the Ukraine border. However, India was unconcerned about the supply disruption due to political turmoil, as Russia accounted for only 1% of the country's total imports in 2021.
Europe
The record high prices of oil and Natural gas severely hit the European energy market in the 1st quarter of 2022 after the Russia’s aggressive military attack on Ukraine. In Q1, Russian profits from oil and gas sales rose, but imports plummeted as companies fled the country in defiance of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, resulting in a significant surplus in Russian goods and services trade. Despite tremendous international condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the country continued to sell oil to its primary export markets in the first quarter. China and India, as well as other Asian importers, continued to buy Russian oil at steep discounts, while Europe continued to buy natural gas. For the most part, Europe continued to acquire Russian oil, despite the fact that many European giants said in early March that they would no longer trade with spot Russian crude and oil products following the invasion of Ukraine. The values for Brent Crude Oil in Germany were evaluated at USD118.30 per barrel in the month ending March.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In Q4 2021, Crude Oil market had experienced an overall downward trend in the North American region. In October and November, Crude Oil values continued to be buoyant back by supply tightness and firm demand. The effect of Ida hurricane that led to the shut-down of refineries, had been faced by the Crude oil market in this quarter also. However, in the last month of the quarter a steep decline in the Crude Oil offers was seen as an effect of increasing coronavirus cases across the world that appeared as threat to the demand outlook of Crude. Moreover, improvement in supplies also aided the pricing trend. Hence, WTI Crude Oil month average prices were assessed at USD 71.84/barrel in December witnessing a decline of around USD 10/barrel since October.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, Crude Oil values witnessed a downward trajectory during the fourth quarter of 2021. Though the demand outlook remained firm in all the Asia Pacific countries throughout the quarter. In October, Crude Oil prices rose efficiently backed by the slump in Chinese coal and other commodities during the early trade. However, in November Crude Oil values tumbled down on the back of improvement in availability as American President urged the countries like China, Japan, South Korea and others to release their inventories of crude oil for boosting the overall output. Moreover, in Crude Oil prices further plummeted in the last month of the quarter due to the rising threat of fall in demand on the back of spreading new corona virus variant “Omicron” across the world. Hence, in India Crude Oil WTI monthly average prices dropped from USD 83.47/barrel in October to USD 71.57/barrel in December.
Europe
The European Crude Oil market appeared to be bullish because of robust demand and tightened supplies during the fourth quarter of 2021. Crude Oil prices continued to be firm throughout the period due to the natural gas crisis in the European region therefore demand pressure shifted to Crude. However, a marginal dip in the prices of Crude Oil was seen in December under the fear of slump in demand due to rising number of Omicron cases. Thus, Brent Crude Oil (Germany) monthly average prices remained rangebound and hovered around USD 79.45/barrel to USD 80.70/barrel in the timeframe of October to November.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The North American crude oil market had experienced mixed prospects in Q3 of 2021. Hurricane Ida which made its landfall near Port Fourchon on the Gulf coast in the last week of August had taken offline 96% of crude oil and 94% of natural gas production in the U.S. federally administered areas of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), according to estimates by the U.S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. At least nine refineries had either shut down or had reduced production of Crude oil. The gross inputs into Gulf Coast refineries fell by 1.6 million b/d from the week ending August 27 to the week ending September 3. Many refineries had resumed operations by September end.
Asia Pacific
In the third quarter of 2021, the demand for Crude Oil remained moderate to high in the Asia Pacific region. The Chinese government’s 9th September decision to auction crude oil stocks from reserves is anticipated to reduce imports by at least 2% y-o-y. In lieu of the new policy, the government had conducted its first auction on 24th September where 7.38 million barrels were offloaded from the state reserves. The government is likely to offload more crude oil stocks in future auctions. With this move, China seemed ready to influence the globe crude market openly as the world's top crude importer with the biggest crude inventory auctions of times. In India, the price of Crude oil was last assessed at USD 75.03 per barrel in September, showing an increase of USD 6.53 per barrel within the third quarter of 2021.
Europe
The European Crude Oil market had shown mixed prospects during the third quarter of 2021. Energy shortages in the European region continue to impact oil markets, with diesel futures in deep backwardation, driven by a switch to gasoil/diesel for power generation in Q3. Demand remained robust throughout the quarter. June spot prices of European Brent Crude were assessed at USD 74.92 per barrel.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
Restored industrial activities in the US Gulf Coast improved the Crude Oil market outlook in the North American region. Restart of several refineries and crackers surged the consumption of Crude Oil. As a result, the U.S. Crude Oil stockpiles continued to fall due to the continuous consumption and increased refiners operating rates. The regional Crude Oil supplies were dented by the cyber-attack in the colonial pipeline in second quarter of 2021. Inventory drawdowns further added to the supply side pressure despite hovering demand uncertainties form the Asian economies due to the resurgence of the pandemic. Amidst increased industrial activities and better volume offtakes, WTI Crude Oil prices continued to strengthen in Q2, with the offers observing a multi fold surge on m-o-m basis. WTI Crude oil was assessed at USD 70.04 per barrel in June with a hike of USD 8.46 per barrel over May.
Asia Pacific
During the second quarter of 2021, Crude Oil supplies in the Asia Pacific region were balanced with demand outlook uncertain due to surge in COVID related complications in India which further restricted the public movement and limited the industrial activities for a larger part of the second quarter. Whereas China reported surge in Brent Crude offtakes from Iran. Asia’s Crude demand surged in June as the mass vaccination programmes eased the restrictions in several parts of the region and the market sentiments continued to strengthen. As a ripple effect, the Crude Oil price trend in India observed continuous gains after gradual downfall in April. Price of Brent Crude reached USD 71.23 per barrel in June, showing an increment of USD 9.53 per barrel within the second quarter of 2021.
Europe
The supply outlook of Crude Oil in the European region improved in the second quarter of 2021, owing to the restart of several producers in the Middle East. However, shipments to Asia and the Middle East were hindered during the quarter starting. Further amelioration in the arbitrage conditions with USA, proportionally increased the import volumes as the shipping rates dropped in the western region. Demand outlook was bolstered as the regional offtakes increased amid the restart of several crackers and refineries along with the better downstream production rates. Mass vaccination programme and surged market activities supported the demand of Crude Oil. Europe Brent Crude spot prices in June were assessed at USD 73.16 per barrel.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
Crude Oil market in the North American region experienced the severe downfall in supplies as extreme freeze weather conditions in Texas and nearby of US Gulf coast area, resulting in regional production cuts by the Crude Oil extractors. The demand showed mixed sentiments due to the shutdown of major US Gulf Coast based refineries including those of Dow Chemicals, ExxonMobil, and force majeures on various downstream petrochemical units in mid-February. Motiva Enterprises announced to shut its 607,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas, refinery, the largest in the United States after Valero Energy Corp and Total SE declared to shut their 335,000 and 225,000 bpd plants in Texas, due to the cold snap. Colonial Pipeline Co, the largest oil products pipeline in the US, reported no significant impact due to storm in its operations. Storm effects stalled energy distribution hampered sending ripples to the price. WTI Crude jumped to USD 66 per barrel on 11th March, to its several months high in a single day.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
The crude oil market remained resolutely high in the APAC region, amidst major consumers seeking more barrels with the demand turning robust as various downstream industries restarted again after a turnaround. Refiners maintained their key focus on the Chinese and Indian spot demand as operations ramp up turning fuel demand high. Indian Oil Corp. (IOCL) issued a tender in mid-March seeking sweet crude from West Africa and other regions while China's Rongsheng closed a buy tender for purchase of nearly 3 million barrels of crude from Oman, Murban crude and Upper Zakum in mid-March. Crude futures rose as OPEC+ supplies remained tight with demand expected to increase as global economic activity picks up.
Europe
The European Crude oil futures dwindled as the demand slumped with slowed market sentiments and other restricted economic activities throughout the region. The refiners seemed uncertain with renewed lockdown restrictions in Europe and affected supplies as winter storm hit several parts of the southern United States in February. Nearly all petroleum inventories for crude and related products have increased in March, with a massive change reported from January and February. Several suppliers were heard struggling to find buyers with storage tanks sufficiently stocked as fresh COVID wave restrained movement and regional energy demand.
For the quarter ending December 2020
North America
Backed by the presence of various players, North America maintains a huge crude oil production capacity. In the final quarter of 2020, production rates remained similar to pre Covid-19 levels however the demand was still facing setbacks due to slowed rebound in some of the downstream industries. Contrary to the expectations, in October crude oil prices dropped further 4% in USA. Fall in prices affected most of the oil producing companies and thousands of people lost their jobs. Although Storm Zeta in the Gulf of Mexico temporarily eased the fall in its prices due to the forced measured declared on several production facilities of that region. Number of rigs in USA increased by the end of the quarter but USA as well as Canada was heard looking forward to slow down the crude oil production in upcoming years just to reduce their carbon emission.
Asia
Crude oil market in Asian countries experienced a fair growth in the final quarter of 2020 as the effect of pandemic slowed down. Nation wise lockdown in major countries created a devastating situation for crude oil sector. In October most of the Asian countries like India and China considerably revived from the effects of Covid19 and opened their economies again. Moving to November the petroleum sector rebounded effectively by a promising number of around 10% and thus at the end of the fourth quarter demand came close to the normal conditions. The demand is likely to witness a further boom in first quarter of 2021 as the aviation sector is on the road to utilize its full capacity. Aviation sector rebounded at around 13% per month (in India) in the final quarter of 2020, after suffering from an immense drop in the first half of the year. Thus, on the last day of 2020, OPEC daily basket prices of Brent Crude climbed to USD 51.80 barrel while US West Texas Crude reached USD 48.52 a barrel.
Middle East
Last quarter of 2020 was not good for some middle east countries, they faced huge financial crises due to consistent fall in crude oil prices. In addition, OPEC imposed an oil production quota on its member countries to limit the production of crude oil. The quota made the situation worst for countries like Iraq as their economies are majorly dependent on Crude oil production. However, Kurdistan, an independent oil producing country based in Middle East was heard taking advantage of OPEC’s mandate and thus catered enhanced revenue over its commodity peers bound under OPEC. Market sentiments turned optimistic in the end of fourth quarter of 2020, when OPEC gave hopes to ease the strict mandate from January.
