For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Crude Oil Price Index rose 1.55% quarter-over-quarter, supported by export demand.
• The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 65.33/MT, per weekly assessments.
• Crude Oil Spot Price exhibited volatility driven by recent geopolitical incidents and shifting inventory balances.
• Crude Oil Price Forecast suggests upside capped by OPEC+ supply increases despite refinery demand strength.
• Crude Oil Production Cost Trend remained subdued as productivity offset logistical and feedstock cost pressures.
• Crude Oil Demand Outlook improved with gasoline demand spikes supporting refinery runs and exports strengthening.
• Crude Oil Price Index volatility reflected signals from inventories, rig counts, OPEC+ announcements, refining activity.
• Elevated U.S. commercial stocks and OPEC+ output increases constrained regional arbitrage and price recovery momentum.
• Operational cuts and disruptions in select producing regions supported prices despite overall global supply increases.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in September 2025 in North America?
• Increased OPEC+ output and sustained U.S. production expanded supply, outweighing intermittent inventory draws and exports.
• Weaker global demand signals and tariff uncertainty pressured sentiment, while shipping risks briefly supported prices.
• Refinery throughput, seasonal gasoline demand, and volatile geopolitics produced offsetting forces influencing weekly price movements.
APAC
• In China, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 1.55% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting marginal demand recovery.
• The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 65.33/MT, supported by seasonal refinery demand.
• Crude Oil Spot Price volatility reflected alternating inventory builds and draws amid refinery throughput signals.
• Crude Oil Production Cost Trend showed modest easing as freight narrowed recently.
• Crude Oil Demand Outlook improved seasonally with stronger transport fuel requirements, while industrial signals softened.
• Crude Oil Price Forecast points to range-bound prices as OPEC+ supply responses offset demand growth.
• Crude Oil Price Index movements were influenced by ARAMCO shipments, seaborne flows and refining outages.
• Export demand and inventories pressured Asian arbitrage, while local restocking supported refinery throughput momentum seasonally.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in September 2025 in APAC?
• OPEC+ announced output increases, adding supply that weighed on prices despite persistent localized geopolitical disruptions.
• Chinese refinery demand rose seasonally, supporting crude draws but overall imports and stock builds tempered gains.
• U.S. inventory swings and freight dynamics influenced arbitrage, creating short-term volatility across APAC seaborne markets.
Europe
• In Germany, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 1.49% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting inventory draws, disruptions.
• The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 68.00/MT, reflecting seasonal demand.
• Crude Oil Spot Price volatility kept the Germany Price Index range-bound amid summer demand frictions.
• Analysts adjusted the Crude Oil Price Forecast lower, citing OPEC+ increases and mixed demand signals.
• Freight increases lifted the Crude Oil Production Cost Trend, squeezing refinery margins regionally.
• Crude Oil Demand Outlook shows strong transport fuel demand yet weaker industrial, petrochemical feedstock consumption.
• Inventory swings and sustained seaborne exports moderated the Crude Oil Price Index, tempering upside pressure.
• Operational outages and incomplete OPEC+ compliance tightened supplies intermittently, supporting sporadic price recoveries in Germany.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in September 2025 in Europe?
• OPEC+ production increases and resumed seaborne flows raised supply, weighing on September prices across Europe.
• Inventories fluctuated with weekly draws and builds, creating mixed signals for German refiners and traders.
• Logistics disruptions and freight variability raised delivered costs, pressuring the domestic Crude Oil Price Index.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 1.55% quarter-over-quarter, on refinery draws.
• The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 65.33/MT, per weekly averages.
• Crude Oil Spot Price volatility persisted amid divergent U.S. inventory flows and refining capacity differences.
• Crude Oil Price Forecast shows modest near-term weakness as OPEC+ reallocation meets seasonal consumption rhythms.
• Crude Oil Production Cost Trend edged lower with feedstock moderation and upstream utilization in fields.
• Crude Oil Demand Outlook improved on peak travel and power-sector burn, sustaining refinery throughput support.
• Crude Oil Price Index weakness reflected OPEC+ allocations and reduced Chinese nominations pressuring regional buying.
• Export demand and inventory swings, producer ramp-ups and geopolitical disruption created mixed short-term price signals.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in September 2025 in MEA?
• OPEC+ raised September allocations, increasing supply and reducing previous scarcity premia across regional export markets.
• Chinese nomination adjustments and softer refinery intake reduced crude draws, weighing on regional price levels.
• Intermittent geopolitical attacks and volatile inventory swings created uncertainty, offsetting bearish supply signals.
South America
• In Brazil, the Crude Oil Price Index rose by 1.55% quarter-over-quarter, supported by export reopenings.
• The average Crude Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 65.33/MT, reflecting blended FOB.
• Crude Oil Spot Price volatility persisted as inventory builds and uneven exports pressured Brazilian sentiment.
• Crude Oil Price Forecast indicated modest upside for autumn, balancing OPEC+ increases against seasonal demand.
• Crude Oil Production Cost Trend softened amid growing supply additions and marginally lower extraction expenses.
• Crude Oil Demand Outlook mixed as seasonal fuel consumption offset weaker industrial and export indicators.
• Crude Oil Price Index recovered modestly as fleet rerouting and higher refinery runs reduced exports.
• Major producers' operational upticks, notably Petrobras FPSO recoveries, tightened domestic balances and supported regional prices.
Why did the price of Crude Oil change in September 2025 in South America?
• Increased OPEC+ scheduled output introductions pressured global supply, prompting downward influence on Brazilian crude prices.
• Domestic export reopenings and restored US access tightened Brazilian market, providing upward support to values.
• Inventories swings, robust summer fuel consumption, and logistical disruptions from regional conflicts created price volatility.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• Crude oil prices declined by 10.2 on % quarter-on-quarter basis. Prices have declined in April and May; however, in June, crude oil prices rebounded to settle at WTI at USD 68.04/barrel by the last week of June—the highest since January.
• Prices recovered after early Q2 declines, triggered by escalating Iran-Israel tensions and supply disruption fears around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Why did the price of Crude Oil change in July 2025 in APAC?
• Prices stayed firm in early July as geopolitical tensions persisted, but softened demand and steady OPEC+ output capped gains.
• The Crude Oil Production Cost Trend fluctuated. Despite OPEC+ planning a July output hike of 411,000 bpd, supply remained tight due to Alberta wildfires, declining U.S. rig counts, and inventory drawdowns.
• Crude Oil Demand Outlook improved in early June with higher U.S. refinery utilization (94.3%) and increased gasoline output ahead of summer. However, demand softened later due to economic concerns, tariff threats, and reduced Chinese crude imports.
• Domestic procurement in China was weak. May imports fell to 9.54 million bpd (−14% m/m) due to lower Middle East and Russian flows, while uncertainty over U.S. tariffs kept buyers cautious.
North America
• Crude oil prices in North America fell by approximately 9% quarter-on-quarter. WTI averaged around USD 65.11/barrel by June 30—the lowest in six months—before stabilizing near USD 68/barrel in early July 2025
• After an April–May downturn, prices rebounded in June as escalated Iran–Israel tensions pushed Brent above USD 74 and WTI toward the mid-70s.
• Why did the price of Crude Oil change in July 2025 in North America?
• Prices remained relatively firm in early July as geopolitical risk persisted. However, increased OPEC+ output, economic softening, and easing U.S. inventory draws capped upside momentum.
• Crude Oil Production Cost Trend: Despite OPEC+'s planned 411,000 bpd output increase in July, supply stayed tight due to Alberta wildfires and declining U.S. rig counts. U.S. commercial crude stocks declined significantly, putting upward pressure on costs.
• Crude Oil Demand Outlook: U.S. refinery utilization climbed to ~94.3%, with gasoline production rising ahead of the summer driving season. However, demand later softened amid trade uncertainty, slowing Chinese imports (down ~14% to 9.54 mbpd in May), and global economic anxiety.
• Domestic procurement and importer behavior: Importers in the U.S. and Canada remained cautious. Inventory builds across non-OECD regions reduced urgency for fresh imports, and weak economic signals and tariff threats constrained procurement strategies.
Europe
• Crude oil prices in Europe declined by approximately 11.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, with Brent averaging around USD 72.73/barrel by the end of March before modest recovery in late June and early July.
• After earlier declines in April and May, prices rebounded in June, with Brent rising to near USD 76–77/barrel, supported by escalating Iran–Israel tensions and fears of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Why did the price of Crude Oil change in July 2025 in Europe?
• Prices held firm in early July as geopolitical tensions persisted, but softening demand in Europe and steady OPEC+ output capped further gains.
• The Crude Oil Production Cost Trend fluctuated: although OPEC+ planned another output hike (~411 kbd in August), supply remained tight in Q2 due to Alberta wildfires, falling U.S. rig counts, and inventory drawdowns that offset bearish pressures.
• Crude Oil Demand Outlook showed mixed signals: early June saw improving refinery utilization (~85–90% in NW Europe) and rising gasoline output ahead of summer, but demand softened later due to slowing economic momentum and trade uncertainty, restraining consumption in Europe.
• Domestic procurement across Europe remained cautious: low downstream industrial activity, weak diesel and jet fuel appetite, and high uncertainty around U.S.–EU tariffs kept buying restrained despite elevated refining margins.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The first quarter of 2025 for Crude Oil prices in the North American region experienced a decline followed by an uptrend. In January 2025 oil prices maintained an upward trajectory. As the new year begins the futures have risen, driven by positive economic data from China due to a recent expansion in China's manufacturing sector, which has fueled optimism about increased demand.
However, in February 2025, oil prices experienced a persistent downward trend due to the subsequent postponement of the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports for a month triggering a shift in market sentiment. As per the EIA data, for the week ending January 31, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 8.7 million barrels compared to the previous week.
Moreover, oil prices have fallen to multi-month lows into concluding March 2025 to settle at WTI USD 69.19/barrel due to weaker-than-expected economic data from both the US and Germany and rising inflation rates. These particular data showcased a potential slowdown in the global economy, which directly translated to weaker energy consumption.
APAC
In the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, crude oil prices during the first quarter of 2025 exhibited a fluctuating pattern, mirroring global economic cues. January 2025 saw oil futures trending upwards, buoyed by positive economic indicators from China. A reported expansion in China's manufacturing sector generated optimism regarding increased energy demand across the region. However, February 2025 witnessed a shift towards a downward trend in oil prices within APAC. This adjustment was influenced by the tariff implementation by North America, which altered broader market sentiment. The downward momentum intensified into March 2025, with crude oil prices in APAC falling to multi-month lows. This decline was largely attributed to weaker-than-anticipated economic data emerging from major global economies like the US and Germany, coupled with rising inflation rates. These factors signaled a potential slowdown in the overall global economy, which directly translated to concerns about reduced energy consumption within the APAC region, impacting crude oil valuations. Simultaneously, the U.S. president threatened to impose tariffs on additional countries lightening concerns about an increase in inflation rates.
Europe
Brent crude oil prices in Europe during the first quarter of 2025 experienced a volatile trajectory influenced by a confluence of global economic factors and geopolitical undercurrents. January 2025 saw Brent futures initially climbing, mirroring the optimism generated by positive manufacturing data from China, which hinted at stronger global demand and, consequently, increased energy consumption in Europe. However, February 2025 brought a shift towards a downward trend for Brent. This adjustment was partly triggered by North America's implementation of tariffs, which altered broader market sentiment and introduced concerns about global trade dynamics potentially impacting European economic growth and energy demand. The downward pressure intensified into the conclusion of March 2025, with Brent crude prices falling to multi-month lows to settle at USD 72.73/barrel. This decline was largely attributed to weaker-than-anticipated economic data emanating from major global economies like the US and Germany, coupled with rising inflation rates across Europe. Simultaneously, the U.S. president's threats to impose tariffs on additional countries served to temper concerns about a significant surge in inflation rates, adding another layer of complexity to the market's assessment of future price movements.
MEA
Crude oil prices in the Middle East region during the first quarter of 2025 experienced a similar volatile pattern, closely tracking global economic signals. January 2025 saw an initial upward movement in oil futures, driven by positive economic data from China. The reported expansion in China's manufacturing activity fostered optimism about increased energy demand across Asia, including Saudi Arabia's key export markets. However, February 2025 brought a shift towards a downward trend in oil prices for Saudi Arabia. This adjustment was influenced by North America's implementation of tariffs, which altered broader market sentiment and introduced concerns about global trade dynamics potentially impacting overall demand. The downward momentum intensified into March 2025, with crude oil prices falling to multi-month lows following the reports stating that the OPEC+ members were starting to increase output in April, the market sentiments have dwindled toward bearishness. Simultaneously, the U.S. president's threats to impose tariffs on additional countries served to slightly alleviate concerns about a significant surge in inflation rates, adding another layer of complexity to the market's assessment of future price movements for Saudi Arabia's oil exports.
South America
Crude oil prices in South America during the first quarter of 2025 initially climbed before reversing into a decline. January 2025 saw an upward trajectory in oil futures, fueled by optimistic economic data from China, indicating an expansion in its manufacturing sector and raising expectations for increased demand. However, February 2025 witnessed a sustained downward trend in oil prices. This shift in market sentiment was triggered by the subsequent postponement of tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada for a month. Adding to the bearish pressure, EIA data for the week ending January 31, 2025, revealed a substantial increase of 8.7 million barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories compared to the prior week. The downward momentum culminated in March 2025, with oil prices falling to multi-month lows. This decline was largely attributed to weaker-than-anticipated economic data from both the US and Germany, alongside rising inflation rates. These economic indicators pointed towards a potential slowdown in global economic activity, which directly translated to concerns about reduced energy consumption.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The fourth quarter of 2024 for Crude Oil prices in the North American region has remained highly volatile. October saw a brief price rebound driven by unexpected events, such as the interruption of Libyan oil production in September, which continued to impact supply in October. Moreover, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico disrupted both crude oil production and refinery operations, further tightening supply. The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of the year in September provided some support to oil prices.
However, this upward trend was short-lived. Concerns over weak global supply and demand fundamentals, coupled with a decline in market demand forecasts from major institutions, weighed heavily on prices during November 2024. The outcome of the US election, with Trump's victory, signaled a potential shift towards policies favoring increased domestic oil production, further dampening price optimism.
While December 2024 saw a period of relative stability. The OPEC+ meeting maintained its existing production cuts, but expectations for a significant withdrawal from these cuts diminished, limiting any upward price pressure. The underlying weakness in global oil demand continued to constrain price appreciation.
APAC
The APAC region of the crude oil market experienced a volatile fourth quarter in 2024. October witnessed a temporary surge in oil prices. This was primarily attributed to supply disruptions. The lingering effects of the September interruption of Libyan oil production continued to impact global supply. Furthermore, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico severely disrupted both crude oil production and refinery operations, exacerbating supply constraints. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in September provided some support to oil prices. However, this upward momentum proved unsustainable. Firstly, concerns regarding weak global oil demand and a decline in demand forecasts from major institutions weighed heavily on market sentiment in November 2024. Secondly, the outcome of the US presidential election, with Trump's victory, signaled a potential shift towards policies that could boost domestic oil production, dampening investor optimism. In December, the market entered a period of relative stability. While the OPEC+ alliance maintained its existing production cuts, expectations for a significant reduction in output diminished, limiting any significant upward pressure on prices.
Europe
The European crude oil market exhibited significant price volatility throughout the fourth quarter of 2024. October witnessed a temporary surge in oil prices, primarily driven by supply disruptions. The lingering impact of the September disruption to Libyan oil production continued to constrict global supply. Furthermore, the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, with potential Iranian involvement, increased geopolitical risk and boosted oil prices. However, this upward momentum proved unsustainable. As Israel refrained from significant retaliatory actions, geopolitical tensions eased, reducing the risk premium for oil during November 2024. Firstly, concerns regarding weak global oil demand, coupled with downward revisions to demand forecasts from major institutions, dampened market sentiment. Secondly, the outcome of the US presidential election, with Trump's victory, signaled a potential shift towards policies that could boost domestic oil production, further dampening investor optimism. In December, the market entered a period of relative stability. While the OPEC+ alliance maintained its existing production cuts, expectations for a significant reduction in output diminished, limiting any significant upward pressure on prices.
South America
The South American region of the crude oil market experienced significant volatility in the fourth quarter of 2024. In October, prices surged temporarily. This was primarily driven by supply disruptions. The lingering impact of the September disruption to Libyan oil production continued to tighten global supply. Moreover, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico severely impacted both crude oil production and refinery operations, further exacerbating supply constraints. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in September provided some support to oil prices. However, this upward momentum proved short-lived. In November, several factors contributed to a price decline. Firstly, concerns regarding weak global oil demand, coupled with downward revisions to demand forecasts from major institutions, dampened market sentiment. Secondly, the outcome of the US presidential election, with Trump's victory, signaled a potential shift towards policies that could boost domestic oil production, further dampening investor optimism. In December, the market entered a period of relative stability. While the OPEC+ alliance maintained its existing production cuts, expectations for a significant reduction in output diminished, limiting any significant upward pressure on prices.
MEA
The Middle East crude oil market experienced a period of significant price volatility throughout the fourth quarter of 2024. October witnessed a temporary surge in oil prices, primarily driven by supply disruptions. The lingering impact of the September disruption to Libyan oil production continued to constrain global supply. Furthermore, the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, with the potential for Iranian involvement, heightened geopolitical tensions and significantly boosted oil prices. However, this upward momentum proved unsustainable. As Israel refrained from significant retaliatory actions, geopolitical tensions eased, reducing the risk premium for oil in November. Concurrently, concerns regarding weak global oil demand, coupled with downward revisions to demand forecasts from major institutions, significantly dampened market sentiment. Additionally, the outcome of the US presidential election, with Trump's victory, signaled a potential shift towards policies that could boost domestic oil production, further dampening investor optimism and exerting downward pressure on prices. In December, the market entered a period of relative stability. While the OPEC+ alliance maintained its existing production cuts, expectations for a significant reduction in output diminished, limiting any significant upward pressure on prices.
