For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The Cumene prices plunged in the first half of the Q2 from April to mid-May which later took an downside in second half of the quarter from mid-May to June. The prices hike at the starting of second quarter is owing to fact of optimistic momentum in feedstock prices and improved demand sentiments from the downstream value chains. In the third week of May, sluggish cost pressure from upstream benzene resulted into decreasing cost support. Thus, as of 19th of May, 2023 the cumene prices was assessed at USD 1470/MT FOB Texas, a decline of 9.5%. However, in the month of June, the prices bounced back to follow the upside trend on the back of stable cost support and increased demand from downstream acetone and phenol. On top of that the limited supply of WTI crude oil from upstream oil companies have further pushed the Cumene prices up. Thus, after the conclusion of the second quarter, Cumene prices in the US were closed at USD 1490 per MT FOB basis following slight decrease.
APAC
There was a drastic drop about 15% in cumene prices in the first half of Q2 from April to mid may which later on recovered during the second half of the quarter from mid-May to June. The prices in the first half continued their downtrend owing to weak demand fundamentals from downstream acetone and phenol which has both witnessed major demand crunch and considering firm supply in market, it took a further decline. While in the second half from mid-May it recovered by 95% owing to stable cost of production and improved demand pressure from downstream derivatives which is thereby utilized in construction industry and resulting an active boom. Market participants reported that the demand sentiment has improved post Dragon Boat festival and procurements have been active with ample new queries from downstream buyers. Further, the decline in prices of crude oil have pushed the Cumene prices up. Thus, at the closing of the second quarter, Cumene prices in China were assessed at USD 1180 per MT FOB basis.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2023, market prices in European countries including Belgium, Netherlands has been characterized by downwards trend which is a consequence of less demand received from downstream players in acetone and phenol industry and weak cost support from Upstream industries. Thus, Cumene prices at the end of May were assessed at USD 1490/MT Cumene, Belgium on CFR basis. The cumene prices have continued to follow their bearish rally due to weak demand from international players, consistent import from the Asia-pacific region and abundant inventory level in domestic market as well as at the ports. Crude oil prices, globally, have reached normalcy after 2022 upheaval. Moreover, as per industry reports, the agrochemical, construction and electronic industries have shown a substantial decline in terms of volumes. Demand from downstream acetone and phenol industries has witnessed stagnancy with limited new queries in the last two weeks of Q2, procurements have been largely weak led to further reduction in prices of Cumene to USD 1450/MT.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the US market, Cumene prices have increased throughout the first quarter of 2023 owing to optimistic momentum in feedstock prices on the back of firm crude oil prices and improved demand sentiment from the downstream value chains. Meanwhile, there were supply chain disruptions observed in the US West Coast Ports. In terms of domestic production, operating rates have been firm and material availability has been robust in the domestic market. Meanwhile, feedstock Benzene prices have also increased, resulting in firm cost pressure over Cumene. Furthermore, the US Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles have witnessed a shortage of laborers and dockworkers, which eventually led to the temporary shutdown of the ports. Furthermore, demand from the downstream Acetone and Phenol industry has been firm with ample new orders while economic uncertainty has weighed heavily on the international demand. Thus, as of March 2023, Cumene prices were assessed at USD 1605 per MT on a FOB basis.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2023, upstream Benzene costs have improved while downstream demand has increased after the Lunar New holidays. Thus, cumene prices have remained on a bullish trend as prices increased consistently throughout the quarter. The supply and demand dynamics remained balanced as traders reported ample availability of the material in the domestic market as well as at the ports. Meanwhile, the cost pressure from Benzene remained optimum for the major part of the quarter on the back of firm downstream demand from Styrene, Cumene, and other value chains. Meanwhile, the demand from downstream Acetone has increased substantially while Phenol offtakes have been steady with stable consumption rates. Thus, Cumene prices were assessed at USD 1215 per MT on a FOB basis in March 2023.
Europe
In the European market, Cumene prices remained bullish for most of the quarter on the back of firm cost pressure and increased demand from downstream value chains. Initially, Cumene prices remained mostly steady with a balance in the demand and supply fundamentals. Thus, increasing cost pressure from feedstock Benzene and rising offtakes from downstream Acetone resulted in increased prices in the last two months of the first quarter. Meanwhile, the imports from the Asian markets have remained steady with firm prices as healthy demand sentiment was observed in the Asian region. This prompted Asian exporters to keep the prices on the higher end with better negotiations. Thus, as of March 2023, Cumene prices were assessed at USD 1625 per MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In North America, prices for Cumene also saw a continuous decline throughout Q4, with prices assessed at USD 1339/MT FOB Louisiana. This can be attributed to a drop in demand from downstream value chains such as Phenol and Acetone, as well as declining consumer sentiment owing to the threat of a recession. Additionally, weak feedstock benzene prices due to a sharp fall in WTI crude oil prices in Q4 2022 also contributed to the market sentiment. WTI crude oil prices dropped sharply, followed by the drop in natural gas prices, which eased the feedstock prices and overall production cost of Cumene in the region. Soft cost pressure amid sluggish demand further deteriorated the pricing sentiment.
Asia-Pacific
The Asia-Pacific market for Cumene saw a decline in prices throughout the quarter, with prices assessed at USD 1062/MT in December 2022. This can be attributed to sluggish demand from downstream industries such as Phenol and Acetone, as well as a drop in feedstock Benzene prices. Crude oil prices dropped sharply in Q4 after wreaking havoc in earlier quarters of 2022. A sharp drop in crude oil boded well for the drop in Benzene prices. Logistical constraints due to Covid lockdowns also played a role in the market sentiment.
Europe
In Europe, Cumene prices showed a mixed trend in Q4 2022. Prices dropped in October, then increased in November, before dropping sharply in December, with prices assessed at USD 1460/MT FD Antwerp. Factors contributing to this trend include a drop in Benzene prices, and cheaper imports from the Asia-Pacific region were also major contributing factors as the freight charges on the Asia-European routes dropped drastically in the concluded quarter of 2022. Consumer sentiment witnessed major deterioration due to recessionary fears, which culminated in soft demand dynamics from the downstream Acetone, Phenol, and other value chains.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the third quarter of 2022, the Cumene market in the North American region observed a persistent downward trajectory. This trend in the pricing of Cumene is majorly attributed to the subdued cost support from the feedstocks. The rising global inflation, coupled with the appreciation of the USD against all currencies in the exchange, levied a significant impact on the offtakes of Crude Oil. In response, the demand dropped amidst the bounding of FOREX reserves which proportionally impacted the value of Crude Oil in the international market. As a ripple effect, the FOB Louisiana discussions for Cumene settled at USD 1665 per tonne in September.
Asia Pacific
Overall, the Cumene market in the Asia Pacific region remains consistently depreciating during the third quarter of 2022. This development is majorly attributed to the downtrend in the value of Crude Oil amidst rising inflation, and the depreciation of Asian currencies against the USD has significantly impacted the demand and offtakes of Crude Oil, suppressing its monetary values in the international markets. In addition, the operations at the manufacturing facilities in China have further plunged amidst the power rationing impacting the overall demand in the domestic market. As a ripple effect, the CFR Qingdao discussions for Cumene were assessed at USD 1188 per tonne during the quarter ending in September. At the same time, the offtakes and manufacturing activities in the major Southeast Asian economies, such as India, remained healthy amidst the festive season.
Europe
The Cumene market in the European region has remained bearish within the limited intact during the third quarter of 2022. Since the European Union imposed sanctions on Russia amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict has limited its dependence on Russian supplies and sought out other possible markets to ensure the supply of essential energy materials. In addition, the cost support from the essential feedstocks such as Benzene and Propylene has been plugged consistently, which was instigated by the inadequate demand and lower cost support from Crude Oil in the international market. In addition, the rising inflation and depreciation of European currencies against the USD further suppresses the market sentiments for Cumene during the quarter ending in September. As a ripple effect, the CFR Antwerp discussions for Cumene settled at USD 1430 per tonne in September.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
During the second quarter of 2022, Cumene prices showcased an uptrend in the US market. The sanction on European oil imports resulted in a tight supply of oil. The increased raw material prices have been influencing the Cumene market. Moreover, the increased interest rates by the Federal reserves also boosted the commodities price. Also, the increased demand for the product from the domestic and global markets has triggered the Cumene market. The rising downstream derivatives Phenol and Acetone production results in the high Cumene requirement. Besides, the inflated price of exported cargoes is also involved in the price hike of Cumene.
APAC
The Indian market showcased a mixed trend in the Cumene prices during the second quarter of 2022. In April, the price rose following the increasing price trend of upstream Crude and feedstock Benzene. Also, the healthy buying sentiments from the domestic market triggered the price trend. In May, Cumene's price witnessed a drop due to the high inventories in the previous month, resulting in the stockpiling of the product. However, due to the low demand from China, the international crude price dropped further, pulling down the Cumene prices. Again, in June, the Cumene market rose due to the surging demand from the end-use automotive, construction, and chemical sectors. Besides, the freight charges also rose, boosting the Cumene market.
Europe
In the quarter ending June 2022, Cumene prices rose in the European region. The EU government imposed sanctions on Russian oil imports due to the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, which reduced the amount of Crude that was available. Hence, the upstream Crude values increased due to the supply deficit, which supported the Cumene price hike. Additionally, the demand from producers of the downstream derivatives phenol and acetone increased, driving up prices for Cumene. The high buying activity in the domestic market and the limited supply forced the providers to change their prices. Moreover, the high fuel and increasing freight charges influence the Cumene market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In North America, prices of Cumene showcased mixed sentiments during the first quarter of 2022. Initially, the prices rose marginally in January and February due to the surging raw materials and their derivatives aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war. High freight, transportation, and feedstock charges also aided the market trend of Cumene in the US market as it is primarily imported from Japan. Prices of Cumene in the USA rose by about 3.3% and settled at USD 1240 per MT in February. Later in March, prices witnessed a slight drop due to the ample availability of the product and drowning demand from the domestic market.
Asia Pacific
During the quarter ending March 2022, Cumene witnessed a continuous rise in the Asian market. Rising demand for the commodity in the downstream automotive and chemical sector and excessive increase in crude prices resulted in the price hike of Cumene. Later, even though there was no significant increase in inquiries, manufacturers were forced to pass on the cost pressure to consumers in order to protect their margins. Furthermore, soaring freight and transportation charges due to high fuel prices also severely impacted Cumene values. Thus, Cumene's CFR prices in India were assessed at USD 1415 per MT in March.
Europe
Cumene prices observed a mixed sentiment in the quarter ending 2022. In the month of January and February, prices rose marginally due to increased demand for Cumene from the regional market, Cumene prices rose with an inclination of 3.1% from January to February and settled at USD 1320 per MT in February. Prices began to drop in March due to the sanctions from certain countries that disrupted the trade activities after the Russia- Ukraine war. High inventory levels and a decrease in demand resulted in the price drop in late-Q1 2022.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In North America, prices of Cumene after witnessing continuous surge turned feeble due to the seasonal slowdown in demand for derivatives Phenol and Acetone. Traders reported of limited enquiries from buyers as they were already filled with stocks for fetching consumer demand in the near term. By the end of Q1, demand supply gap for Cumene further narrowed following the plummeting demand from solvent industry. No scheduled turnarounds in the region in Q1 further strengthened the supply of various petrochemicals. Amidst ample material availability, Cumene FOB prices in USA averaged at USD 1040 per MT in Q4 2021.
Asia
Cumene prices witnessed a downward trend backed by weaker Propylene markets and dull market dynamics in Asia. Lackluster demand was reflected in the downstream Phenol and Acetone market amid the progression of the final quarter of 2021. Enquiries for Cumene were observed to be low as traders restrained to indulge in any bulk contract purchases in the whole of December. Besides high output of feedstock Benzene amidst the stagnated demand gave manufacturers room to reduce pressure upon buyers. Cumene CFR prices in India were assessed at USD 1355 per MT in December. In late-November, Shell, a renowned petrochemical manufacturer based in Singapore underwent a fire accident due to which the cracker went offline for around week, the accident temporarily caped the supply of Propylene to Changchun’s Phenol and Mitsui’s Phenol unit.
Europe
In Q4 2021, European market witnessed a continuous drop in the prices of Cumene following its increased supply from France and Finland following the resumption of several plant operations. Feeble demand for derivatives Phenol and Acetone sent ripples to the prices of Cumene throughout the quarter. On the other hand, extended energy crises and firm values of crude led to a rise in plant operating cost which restricted manufacturers margins as they were unable to transfer the cost pressure upon buyers due to lackluster demand.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The market price of Cumene witnessed a significant hike in the North American region during the third quarter of 2021. In terms of demand, it remained bullish in the US market from the downstream building and construction sectors throughout the quarter. however, surging cost and low availability of upstream raw materials, i.e., benzene and propylene, resulted in a snug supply of the material across the region. Several manufacturing units increased their production rates along with strong inquiries from the Phenol manufacturers. Therefore, the price trend of Cumene witnessed an uprise in the third quarter.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 of 2021, the overall market outlook of Cumene experienced an upward trajectory in the Asia Pacific region followed by consistent demand from the downstream manufacturers. In India, Cumene prices continued to climb up during September, backed by the improvement in demand from the domestic market. Ex-works prices in West India maintained an uptrend by escalating from USD 1489/MT to USD 1762/MT in Q3. Consistent increment in upstream Benzene prices during the quarter pressured Cumene plant operations, which also affected its downstream Acetone and Phenol supplies. Additionally, improved industrial activities in the country with effective decline in new pandemic cases provided firmness in offtakes by downstream users.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2021, some tightness in Cumene supplies was observed in the European region which was backed by bullish demand from the downstream construction and paint and coatings industry. The price chart of Cumene experienced an uptrend in Q3 which was compelled by the tight supply of raw materials and global inflation in upstream Benzene. Demand remained healthy in Q3 from the downstream Phenol producers as offtakes improved QoQ from the end-consumers.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
In the second quarter of 2021, Cumene supplies in North America improved owing to the pick-up in manufacturing activities after the industry recovered from the devastating impacts of the polar winter storm Uri. Several manufacturing facilities ramped up the production rates along with strong enquiries from the Phenol manufacturers. Downstream demand remained robust amidst seasonal hike in enquiries for Cumene derivatives from the building and construction sector. Taking cues from the global surge in raw material rates, the prices gained in the first half and then stabilized in the latter half of the second quarter. Cumene FOB Texas discussions were heard around USD 1810 per tonne in June.
Asia Pacific
The Cumene demand outlook in Asia Pacific region showcased mixed sentiments during the second quarter of 2021, as several downstream Phenol manufacturing units were on a turnaround during the May-June period. The turnaround of South Korean Kumho P&B line 3 and Mitsui Chemical’s Phenol unit in Japan proportionally impacted the offtakes of the Northeast Asian region. Whereas despite the second wave of COVID in India, the Cumene market remained balanced. Cumene prices in India maintained an uptrend, with price discussions in June hovering around USD 1292 per tonne.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2021, Cumene supplies in the European region remained tight due to turnarounds at several manufacturing facilities in the first half of the quarter. However, several plants resumed operations with better rates in the later half due to rising import demand from the US. Downstream demand observed marked uptrend from the construction sector which led to surge in offtakes from the paints and coatings industry. Cumene prices showed strong gains during the quarter buoyed by the tight supply and global inflation in upstream Benzene.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
During the first quarter of 2021, Cumene supplies were tight, however during the first half of Q1 the market lost balanced in all prospects due to the severe freeze weather conditions in the US gulf region led to the plant outages is several major facilities, triggering supply shortages of feedstock Benzene. The demand of Cumene slumped amid the damages occurred in plants due to the polar winter storm which shut down several Phenol and Acetone units for several weeks in a row. The spot buyers struggled in strong competition to procure Cumene stocks in domestic as well as overseas market in middle of surged prices in the North American region.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
The supplies in Asia Pacific, during the first quarter remained tight since several major plants went for maintenance turnaround and were operating at low efficiencies due to feedstock shortages. ENEOS Corp production plant in the Miyagi prefecture, Japan shut down its aromatics unit for several weeks due to the 6.1 magnitude earthquake in February, followed by the low inventories levels after some plants went for turnaround during the Chinese lunar new year holidays. The demand was driven by the restocking practices to fill the inventories, followed by surged consumption from the Phenol-Acetone manufacturers. High demand and sluggish supplies throughout the quarter hiked the prices of Cumene in India which were assessed around USD 1202/ton.
Europe
The supplies of Cumene in the European region remained constrained in first half of Q1, as the several plants reduced their production due to the limited availability of the feedstock as the industrial and commercial activities were restricted amid the lockdown in several region. The supplies were further dented by reduced imports from the USA due to plant outages in several producing facilities. The demand however surged from the downstream sector as the Borealis acetone and phenol unit ended their turnaround during ending of previous quarter. Widened supply-demand gap led to surge in the prices of Cumene throughout the European region.
For the Quarter Ending December 2020
North America
Production rates showed slight recovery from the spate of seasonal Hurricanes and pandemic-induced lockdowns. Outlook remained hindered due to soft demand for the derivative Acetone while Phenol derivatives awaited the much-needed revival in the key automotive and construction sectors. While demand outlook remained stable for largely the entire quarter, Cumene supplies were largely affected by constraints from the upstream refinery-grade propylene (RGP) and Benzene. Prices reported an uptrend on the back of strong Benzene due to a range of factors, including low imports from South Korea and depressed refinery operating rates. Major US producers of Cumene are CITGO, INEOS Phenol, Marathon and Shell.
Asia
Cumene supply remained balanced in the fourth quarter of 2020, pressured under subdued demand from the downstream Acetone and Phenol manufacturers. However, prices showed a significant QoQ rise with escalating crude futures and rising optimism over the news of roll-out of Covid-19 vaccines and an anticipated economic rebound in China and India. An upward pressure on the pricing curve was further supported by raw material pass-through following a net increment observed in feedstocks Benzene and Propylene. Ex-Depot prices in India jumped from USD 1049 per tonne levels in October to USD 1090 per tonne levels in December. Supply remained short in South Korea as LG Chem shut its 400 KTPA Cumene plant after its Yosu cracker complex caught fire early in November.
Europe
As the economic recovery took hold in Europe during Q4, Cumene demand witnessed considerable growth. However, import volumes remained restricted, refraining to show any major movement before the first quarter amid rising fears of extended lockdowns over the new coronavirus variant. Sentiments were risen as the news of vaccine distribution hit the downstream markets. Supply lengthened by the end of the quarter as Borealis declared force majeure at its Phenol and Acetone production site in Finland. With no major turnarounds expected in the Cumene production units during the first half of 2021, the European Cumene market is likely to stay amply supplied in the near term.
