For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
Diesel prices in the USA followed a largely upward trend during Q1 2025, with prices closing higher compared to the previous quarter despite some fluctuations in March. In January, prices rose due to increased heating fuel demand driven by winter storm Enzo and strong domestic consumption.
However, warmer weather forecasts later in the month softened demand, overall market sentiment remained firm, supported by reduced inventories and refinery constraints. February saw a further price increase as cold temperatures in the Northeast intensified heating oil usage, and maintenance at key refineries tightened domestic supply. Strong diesel exports, particularly to Europe and South America, also contributed to reduced availability in the domestic market.
However, March witnessed a shift, with prices declining due to reduced industrial activity, weaker export prospects, and uncertainty from new U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy imports. Despite this softening, the overall quarterly price level remained elevated, largely driven by strong early-quarter demand, supply challenges, and global geopolitical influences. Compared to Q4 2024, diesel prices in Q1 2025 were higher by 3%, reflecting continued cost pressures across the U.S. fuel market.
APAC
Diesel prices in the APAC region showed a mixed but largely stable trend in Q1 2025. In January, prices rose in China, supported by a surge in international crude oil prices due to OPEC+ production cuts, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and stronger global demand expectations from winter cold waves. However, domestic diesel demand remained weak, tempering price gains. February saw prices inch slightly higher as post-holiday industrial and mining activities resumed, and pre-Spring Festival stockpiling supported demand. Supply constraints due to reduced refinery operations in Shandong and sustained diesel exports further bolstered prices.
In March, the trend reversed, and diesel prices declined twice due to falling global crude prices, eased geopolitical concerns, and signs of increased oil output from April. Domestic demand remained moderate, and refinery operating rates stayed stable, leading to inventory accumulation and softer pricing. Despite seasonal recovery in agriculture and construction, weak industrial and logistics activity limited demand. Overall, diesel prices in APAC remained relatively flat in Q1 2025, slipping 0.1% from the previous quarter.
Europe
In Q1 2025, diesel prices in Europe showed a mixed trend, with slight increases in certain sectors but underlying downward pressures. Diesel prices for used cars saw a marginal rise, up by 1.0%, driven by a slight increase in demand for used diesel vehicles. However, broader market trends pointed to potential price declines due to falling imports into Europe despite ample global supply. Diesel imports into core European regions dropped by 5% compared to Q1 2024, partly due to the reduction in refining capacity, including the permanent shutdown of the Gunvor Rotterdam refinery and closures in Wesseling and Grangemouth. These capacity losses were expected to tighten supply, making Europe more reliant on imports from other regions, such as the Middle East.
Seasonal demand also had mixed effects: colder weather in parts of Europe supported heating oil demand, but a warmer-than-expected winter dampened this impact. Furthermore, tariffs on Canadian diesel exports to the U.S. were implemented in March 2025, which could indirectly affect European diesel markets by altering supply dynamics. Additionally, the growing competition from electric vehicles continued to limit demand for diesel in the passenger vehicle sector. Despite these challenges, overall diesel prices remained relatively stable, as supply disruptions and a shift in refining capacity balanced out the downward pressures.
South America
Diesel prices in South America, particularly in Brazil, showed a fluctuating but overall declining trend in Q1 2025. In January, prices rose after Petrobras, the state-run oil company, implemented its first diesel price hike since late 2023, aligning domestic prices with international benchmarks. This move was influenced by global market conditions and inflationary concerns. February saw another 5% increase in prices due to continued pricing adjustments by Petrobras and state tax hikes. However, March brought a sharp turnaround, with prices falling significantly as domestic supply improved and imports dropped nearly 40%. Petrobras ramped up local diesel production, while Russia and Saudi Arabia remained key suppliers. The commissioning of new production assets further supported local availability. Despite stable demand from agriculture and logistics, the market saw weak support for elevated prices due to improved supply and competitive domestic rates. By the end of March, the downward momentum in prices outweighed earlier hikes, leading to an overall quarterly decline of 4.4% compared to Q4 2024.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, diesel prices in the United States followed a declining trend, primarily due to increased supply and a mild economic slowdown. October saw a slight incline in diesel prices, but by November, prices dropped as refinery operations ramped up following maintenance shutdowns.
The return of refineries to full production levels helped alleviate supply constraints, driving prices lower. Additionally, a warmer-than-expected start to the winter season dampened heating oil demand, contributing to a reduction in prices. By December, the downward trend continued, as inventories grew and demand for diesel softened due to factors like a less severe winter and lower domestic consumption. Although certain regions, like California, saw slight price increases, overall, the national average saw a notable decrease of about 7.0% from the previous year.
The rise in distillate inventories and robust refinery output helped support the market, despite regional variations in demand. In summary, the combination of stronger supply, milder seasonal demand, and increased exports to Europe resulted in a general decline in diesel prices across the U.S. throughout Q4 2024. Specifically in the U.S., the market experienced a 4% decrease from the previous quarter.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the diesel market in China experienced an overall declining price trend, primarily driven by weak domestic demand and reduced industrial activity. October saw an initial upward movement in diesel prices due to a combination of tightening fuel supply and declining refining output. Refiners reduced their runs due to weak refining margins, and China’s refining throughput continued to decrease year-on-year for the sixth consecutive month. This reduction in domestic supply was further compounded by lower crude oil imports, which created some pressure on the market. However, this price increase was somewhat moderated by the weak overall demand stemming from China’s broader economic slowdown and the shift towards new energy vehicles and LNG as alternatives to diesel.
By November, the diesel market started to experience a decline as demand continued to weaken, especially in sectors like agriculture and construction. The seasonal reduction in agricultural activity and outdoor projects, along with a slowdown in industrial operations, dampened consumption. Refineries responded by lowering prices to stimulate sales, and cautious procurement behavior from traders further suppressed price increases.
In December, the declining trend persisted as demand remained subdued, especially in northern China, where colder weather led to a further reduction in diesel consumption. Refineries maintained a steady supply but faced challenges from weak domestic demand, leading to continued price reductions. Diesel exports provided some support, but overall market conditions remained weak, further contributing to the downward price movement for the month. Thus, the quarter concluded with a continued decline in diesel prices across the region. In China, the market saw a 2% decline from the previous quarter.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European diesel market exhibited a mixed price trend influenced by a range of economic and supply-side factors. Economic headwinds, primarily driven by the ongoing inflationary environment and central bank tightening, dampened demand across Europe. Major economies like Germany and France saw notable declines in diesel consumption, reflecting broader structural challenges and the economic slowdown. Additionally, the transition to electric and hybrid vehicles continued to impact the demand for diesel, as fewer diesel-powered passenger vehicles were registered.
At the same time, diesel refining margins in Europe saw a significant decline, falling to levels considerably lower than in previous years. This downward trend in refining margins was driven by a combination of reduced demand and higher operational costs, particularly in the face of rising energy prices and inflationary pressures.
On the supply side, anticipated refinery closures in the region added uncertainty. While these closures, including major refineries in the UK and Germany, were expected to reduce refining capacity, their immediate impact on the market was tempered by the ability of Europe to absorb external diesel supplies, including from the US Gulf Coast. US diesel exports to Europe were notably higher, helping to stabilize the supply side despite the weakening domestic demand.
The outlook for European diesel prices remains mixed. The closure of refineries and ongoing shifts in global supply chains, including developments in Russia and the Middle East, are likely to have an impact on diesel pricing in the medium term. However, the structural decline in demand for diesel, driven by the energy transition and weaker economic conditions, is expected to keep downward pressure on prices in the near term.
South America
In Q4 2024, diesel prices in Brazil saw a consistent upward trend, driven by a mix of supply challenges, strong demand, and global market fluctuations. October experienced price stability despite volatility in international markets. While global diesel prices, including those in the U.S. Gulf Coast, declined, Brazil’s diesel prices remained steady due to high imports and robust demand, particularly from the agricultural sector during the corn harvest. Diesel imports reached a two-year high, with Russia being the main supplier, though the market saw pressure from a seasonal dip in demand and high inventories at ports.
In November, diesel prices saw a slight increase, reflecting stable supply-demand dynamics and Petrobras’ market interventions. The depreciation of the Brazilian real contributed to rising import costs, though the expansion of domestic refining capacity helped to maintain a balance. By December, diesel prices experienced a more significant rise due to increased costs for imports, fueled by fluctuations in the exchange rate. The price gap between imported and domestic diesel widened, particularly at ports like Santos and Itaqui. Despite higher production levels, Brazil's reliance on imports continued, driving prices up for the quarter. Overall, the market experienced a 1% increase from the previous quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
During Q3 2024, diesel prices in North America experienced a notable decline, reaching multi-year lows amid broader economic concerns. U.S. diesel prices averaged the lowest level in two years. Contributing factors included a seasonal slowdown in demand, particularly from the transportation and industrial sectors, as economic indicators suggested a potential recession and weaker manufacturing activity. Additionally, the market faced increased domestic diesel production and higher imports, further saturating supply.
Inventory dynamics also played a crucial role; crude oil stockpiles fell by 1.6 million barrels barrels, while distillate inventories saw a modest increase of 100,000 barrels, indicating tighter supply conditions. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil prices declined, with futures dropping reflecting the impact of reduced demand and economic uncertainties. Although the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) planned to increase production, challenges such as Libya’s supply disruptions and the anticipated output cuts from Iraq added uncertainty to the market. As schools resumed and the transition to winter fuels approached, expectations of continued downward pressure on diesel prices persisted.
Specifically in the U.S., the market experienced a 4% decrease from the previous quarter, with the quarter-ending price settling at USD 3.56/Gal for Diesel Del-Washington. Overall, the combination of reduced demand and fluctuating inventories characterized the bearish market conditions throughout the quarter.
APAC
During Q3 2024, the APAC region witnessed a decline in diesel prices, driven by several interrelated factors affecting supply and demand dynamics. In China, the diesel market faced significant headwinds, with demand decreasing due to high temperatures, frequent rainfall, and a general summer slowdown in industrial activities. This led to cautious purchasing behavior among traders and end-users, resulting in a buildup of inventories and further downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the country’s transition toward alternative fuels, such as natural gas, and a substantial drop in diesel consumption over 10% year-on-year reflected broader economic challenges, including a property crisis and slowing growth. Refinery output also suffered, with Sinopec reporting a 0.5% decline in domestic refined oil consumption. Despite an increase in crude oil production, overall refined product sales fell, contributing to market weakness. Throughout the region, the volatility of global oil prices remained a concern, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and economic uncertainties. Consequently, prices continued to decline, indicating a bearish market environment. The combination of weak demand, high inventories, and structural shifts toward cleaner fuels highlighted the challenges facing the APAC diesel market during the quarter. In China, the market saw a 3% decline from the previous quarter, with the quarter-ending price for diesel settling at USD 945 per metric ton in Beijing.
South America
During Q3 2024, diesel prices in South America remained stable, influenced by a combination of steady demand and consistent supply dynamics. In Brazil, the market benefited from a resilient economy, with key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation maintaining robust diesel consumption. Despite rising global crude oil prices, driven by optimistic economic forecasts and geopolitical tensions, the local market exhibited stability as consumption patterns remained predictable. Supply-side factors also contributed, with Petrobras investing heavily in energy infrastructure to enhance diesel production, thereby securing domestic fuel needs. Additionally, balanced import-export activities helped stabilize prices, with Brazil successfully sourcing alternative supplies amidst a decline in Russian diesel shipments. Throughout September, Brazil imported significant volumes of diesel to meet the demands of the upcoming corn harvest, further underpinning market stability. While external market fluctuations and geopolitical events posed challenges, Brazil's strategic position as a key importer and its strong domestic production capabilities ensured that diesel prices remained stable during this quarter, fostering a favorable business environment. In Brazil, the market experienced a 1% increase from the previous quarter, with the quarter-ending price for diesel reaching BRL 5.93 per liter, Min in FD Rio de Janeiro. Overall, the region navigated a balanced market situation, reflecting a sustained equilibrium between supply and demand.
Europe
In Q3 2024, diesel prices in Europe were shaped by a complex interplay of factors, including significant increases in petroleum product exports and high refinery production levels. The rise in exports led to a regional oversupply, which exerted downward pressure on diesel prices. Notably, despite robust exports, many European countries, particularly Germany, experienced a decline in demand, with consumption falling below historical averages. The influx of diesel from global suppliers contributed to substantial increases in fuel inventories, particularly in major ports like Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, where stock levels were markedly higher than the previous year. This accumulation of supplies occurred alongside maintenance activities at key refineries, which created localized supply challenges. While Kazakhstan recorded the lowest diesel prices in the region, several Western European countries, including Norway and the UK, saw significantly higher rates. The overall market dynamics were characterized by weak demand in the industrial heartland of Europe, leading to a disconnect between supply and consumption. Additionally, diesel refinery margins weakened considerably, reflecting the challenging market conditions. As traders anticipated potential supply shocks from geopolitical developments, the overall environment for diesel pricing remained volatile, with refinery operators grappling with the impacts of high inventories and fluctuating demand.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the diesel pricing landscape in North America experienced a pronounced decline, driven by a confluence of supply and demand dynamics. This quarter was marked by a notable dip in diesel prices, reflecting a bearish market sentiment. Key factors influencing this downturn included an increase in domestic diesel production, ample distillate inventories reaching their highest seasonal level in four years, and a general decline in crude oil prices. Additionally, the transition to renewable fuels and a sluggish manufacturing sector further suppressed demand. This overall pricing environment leaned towards a negative outlook, indicating a persistent oversupply and weakened market demand.
Focusing on the USA, which observed the most significant price fluctuations, the trend was overwhelmingly downward. Seasonality played a crucial role, with the mild winter reducing heating oil demand and the slow manufacturing sector curbing industrial diesel needs. The increased availability of renewable fuels further contributed to the reduced demand for traditional diesel. The overall trend for Q2 2024 was a steady decline, with a price drop of 3% as compared to Q1.
This stable production environment, coupled with decreased demand, led to a favorable supply situation that further pressured prices downward. By the end of the quarter, diesel prices in the USA settled at USD 3.72 per gallon, reflecting a significant decline from previous levels. This quarter's pricing environment has been decidedly negative, characterized by oversupply and weakened demand.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the diesel market within the APAC region experienced a notable upward trend in prices, driven by a constellation of significant factors. The quarter was marked by heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which disrupted global crude oil supplies and pushed prices upward. The transition to cleaner energy sources, while a long-term goal, has temporarily added pressure on diesel supplies as refineries adapt their operations. Additionally, a surge in industrial and construction activities, post-pandemic economic rebounds, and seasonal agricultural demands further strained the diesel supply chain, exacerbating price hikes.
China, exhibiting the most pronounced price changes, saw a distinct upward trajectory in diesel prices throughout this quarter. Refineries in Shandong faced operational adjustments due to maintenance schedules, resulting in reduced throughput and exacerbation of the supply-demand imbalance. The market dynamics were significantly impacted by a temporary rise in diesel demand, driven by spring agricultural activities and the resumption of outdoor construction projects.
Compared to the previous quarter's -1% change, the current quarter ending price at USD 1010/MT Ex-Beijing underscores a robust and escalating pricing environment. The increasing sentiment throughout Q2 2024 reflects a decidedly positive pricing environment, influenced by a confluence of supply disruptions and heightened demand.
Europe
In Q2 2024, diesel prices in Europe experienced a notable decline due to multiple factors. Economic slowdowns in key regions, including Europe, and a slower-than-expected recovery in China reduced global oil demand. Increased refining capacity from new refineries and expansions led to a diesel surplus, while higher inventory levels were driven by anticipation of lower demand. Government policies, such as temporary tax cuts on diesel, contributed to lower retail prices. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions and unusually mild weather conditions reduced the demand for heating fuels.
Also, TotalEnergies reported a decrease in second-quarter earnings, primarily due to weakened diesel demand and falling European refining margins. The company attributed this downturn to market normalization following disruptions in Russian supply and slower economic activity. The introduction of new refineries in Africa and the Middle East has heightened competition, further pressing refining margins. CEO Patrick Pouyanne noted that refining margins are stabilizing at lower levels, reflecting ongoing sector challenges.
Thus, the decline in diesel prices during Q2 2024 highlights the intricate dynamics of reduced global demand, increased supply, and evolving market conditions. The combined effects of economic slowdowns, expanded refining capacity, and shifting policies underscore the need for ongoing vigilance in monitoring both regional and global factors impacting diesel prices.
South America
Throughout Q2 2024, the South American region experienced stability in diesel pricing, driven by balanced market fundamentals. In Brazil, diesel prices remained steady due to consistent supply and demand dynamics. Seasonal declines in demand from reduced agricultural activities were offset by sufficient domestic production and imports. Petrobras's pricing policy, influenced by global crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions, contributed to this stability. During the quarter, Brent crude averaged USD 82.25 per barrel, and WTI crude averaged USD 82.69 per barrel. Despite the Brazilian Real depreciating by 6.21% against the USD, this did not significantly disrupt price stability. Additionally, investments in infrastructure, such as Grupo Potencial's biodiesel pipelines, highlighted growing confidence in the evolving energy landscape.
Brazil saw minimal price changes during the quarter, with a recorded 0% change from the previous quarter. Overall trends in Brazil reflected a steady pricing environment, with no significant fluctuations observed. The quarter-ending price for Diesel in Brazil stood at USD 5/MT (BRl/ltr, Min.) FD- Rio de Janeiro, indicating a stable pricing scenario in the region.
