For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Diesel Price Index rose by 5.25% quarter-over-quarter, driven by crude rallies and tight inventories.
• The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 3.74/MT.
• Diesel Spot Price eased intramonth as middle distillate spreads narrowed.
• Diesel Production Cost Trend rose with crude input volatility despite improved sour feedstock availability.
• Diesel Demand Outlook remains firm due to freight, agricultural and export-driven consumption.
• Diesel Price Forecast indicates mild variability driven by inventories, refinery outages, and export flows.
• Refinery utilization and exports tightened the Diesel Price Index performance during the quarter.
• Inventory draws and geopolitical risk premiums supported stronger Diesel prices into September.
• Hedging and contractual rollovers influenced Diesel Spot Price volatility and wholesale settlement timing.
Why did the price of Diesel change in September 2025 in North America?
• Crude benchmark rallies increased refinery input costs, feeding through into diesel margins and pricing.
• Low distillate inventories and strong export demand tightened domestic availability, lifting spot and wholesale prices.
• Geopolitical tensions and Red Sea freight risks elevated risk premia, complicating logistics and supply expectations.
APAC
• In China, the Diesel Price Index rose by 0.25% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, reflecting supply-demand dynamics.
• The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 933.00/MT.
• Diesel Spot Price showed volatility tied to international crude and refinery output.
• Diesel Price Forecast expects modest movements as inventories and seasonal demand balance out.
• Diesel Production Cost Trend was influenced by softer crude benchmarks and refinery operating variances.
• Diesel Demand Outlook remained moderate with agricultural seasonal tapering and steady industrial consumption.
• Diesel Price Index showed limited upward pressure from disciplined refinery pricing and controlled domestic supply.
• Port logistics efficiency and elevated inventories influenced export and internal distribution dynamics for Diesel.
• Refinery operating rates and OPEC+ signals constrained pricing flexibility across regional Diesel markets.
Why did the price of Diesel change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Softer international crude and OPEC+ output increases reduced feedstock costs, easing upward pressure.
• Seasonal agricultural slowdown and heavy rains weakened domestic diesel demand across consumption hubs.
• Rising inventories and steady domestic refinery throughput created looser supply supporting price softening.
South America
• In Brazil, the Diesel Price Index fell by 1.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to ample supply.
• The average Diesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 6.03/MT.
• Diesel Spot Price softened amid lower crude benchmarks and higher biodiesel blend expectations.
• Diesel Price Forecast signals modest recovery if Russian discounts persistently narrow and logistical constraints continue.
• Diesel Production Cost Trend remained subdued as global crude eased and refinery efficiencies improved.
• Diesel Demand Outlook shows seasonal weakness from agriculture offsets, but transport demand keeps baseline consumption.
• Diesel Price Index movements reflected ample inventories, constrained Russian flows, and Petrobras refinery availability.
• Biodiesel mandate increase encouraged distributors to reduce fossil diesel stocks, exerting downward price pressure.
• Export demand fluctuations and currency volatility influenced import parity and distributor pricing strategies.
Why did the price of Diesel change in September 2025 in South America?
• Narrowing Russian discounts reduced import advantages, tightening supply and lifting landed procurement costs.
• Sustained domestic transport and agricultural fuel demand offset seasonal declines, supporting retail price resilience.
• Logistical constraints and Petrobras refinery availability influenced supply flows, while crude benchmarks affected input costs.
Europe
• In Europe, the Diesel Price Index displayed a mixed trend through Q3 2025, with prices firming early in the quarter and softening by September.
• Diesel Spot Price strengthened in July and August due to summer driving demand, refinery maintenance, and constrained Russian diesel inflows.
• Toward late September, Diesel Spot Price declined as crude oil benchmarks eased and inventories across Northwest Europe improved.
• Diesel Production Cost Trend remained steady, influenced by stable crude oil feedstock costs and moderated refining spreads.
• Diesel Price Forecast suggests a continuation of mixed momentum into Q4 2025, with potential short-term rebounds driven by winter heating demand but tempered by adequate regional stocks.
• Diesel Demand Outlook remains steady—supported by transport and logistics sectors, though industrial diesel use saw modest contraction amid slower manufacturing activity.
• Refinery utilization rates remained high across Europe, ensuring stable supply levels and restricting sharp upward movement in the Price Index.
• Softer freight rates and stable crude inputs helped contain cost escalation, maintaining a balanced pricing environment across key trading hubs like Rotterdam and Genoa.
Why did the price of Diesel change in September 2025 in Europe?
• In September 2025, the Diesel Price Index decreased as declining crude oil prices and improved European refinery output eased market tightness.
• Lower road fuel consumption following the end of the summer season reduced spot buying, contributing to downward pressure on prices.
• Stable production costs and sufficient inventories limited cost-push pressure, reinforcing a softer pricing tone across the region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Diesel Price Index averaged USD 3.6/Gal,DEL Washington during Q2 2025, down 2% from Q1 2025, indicating a mixed trend influenced by first-quarter oversupply and fourth-quarter geopolitical tensions.
• Diesel Price weakened during April and May as Brent crude declined, with high refinery production and sufficient domestic supplies, with May at the lowest retail levels since 2021.
• In June, Diesel Price Index shot up sharply as crude rose on Middle East turmoil, tight supplies, and rising U.S. diesel exports to Europe and Latin America.
• Why did the price change in July 2025?
The Diesel Price Forecast indicates a likely increase in July, driven by continued geopolitical tensions, tight U.S. diesel inventories, robust summer freight demand, and firm export pull from Latin America and Europe.
• Diesel Production Cost Trend rose in June on the back of higher crude and freight costs, though was relatively flat earlier in the quarter due to refinery efficiency and moderated feedstock values.
• Diesel Demand Outlook remained resilient in June amid strong logistics and agricultural pull, but is projected to soften in July due to reduced fertilizer demand and slower freight activity.
• U.S. diesel exports hit a 44-week high in June, supporting global demand, but internal market pressure remains subdued due to long-term fuel efficiency trends and modal freight shifts.
• Despite June's tight supply, Q2 supply remained broadly balanced as elevated refinery utilization (94.7%) and stock drawdowns were offset by declining diesel imports earlier in the quarter.
South America
• The Diesel Price Index in Brazil averaged BRL 5.96/ltr ,FD Rio de Janeiro, showing a 3% decline from Q1 2025, driven by weaker global crude benchmarks, stable domestic output, and strategic price cuts by Petrobras.
• Diesel Price trended downward through Q2 as Petrobras implemented three consecutive reductions, reflecting a drop in Brent crude, improved local refining output, and abundant imports from Russia.
• Why did the price change in July 2025?
The Diesel Price Forecast indicates further decline due to weaker seasonal demand, higher biodiesel blending targets, and distributors offloading fossil diesel stock ahead of August’s B15 mandate.
• Diesel Production Cost Trend remained manageable, aided by operational refinery stability, lack of port disruptions, and smooth logistics across Santos and Paranaguá.
• Diesel Demand Outlook softened due to early monsoon weather, reduced agricultural fuel use, and decelerating industrial activity, despite Brazil’s long-term infrastructure needs.
• Brazil’s growing focus on biofuel integration and decarbonization encouraged inventory realignment, further easing fossil diesel demand in June.
• Imports from Russia remained strong despite EU sanctions, with discounted cargoes and smooth transshipment boosting local supply.
• Domestic inflation and fuel cost moderation offered relief to freight, logistics, and public transport sectors, improving price pass-through visibility.
China
• The Diesel Price Index in China averaged USD 950/MT (Ex-Beijing, June) during Q2 2025, reflecting an overall incline, despite a 2.5% decline compared to Q1 2025, driven by shifting refinery behavior, fluctuating crude costs, and mixed demand trends.
• Diesel Price gains in June were supported by early-month crude oil volatility amid Middle East tensions, while April and May saw downward adjustments due to oversupply and weakened manufacturing consumption.
• Why did the price change in July 2025?
The Diesel Price Forecast for July signals a decrease, as agricultural demand eases post-harvest, refinery output remains elevated, and international crude benchmarks stabilize at lower levels, undermining cost support.
• The Diesel Production Cost Trend stayed moderate across Q2, with June seeing marginal increases tied to higher crude procurement costs, especially for early-month refinery intakes during peak volatility.
• Diesel Demand Outlook in China remained mixed: construction and logistics provided baseline support, but growing EV and LNG fleet penetration, industrial slowdown, and high inventories capped consumption growth across Q2.
• Domestic refineries, including teapot operators in Shandong, raised throughput in April and June, boosting diesel availability, while export volumes surged—over 700,000 MT in April alone—though export margins narrowed.
• Despite stable port operations and no major logistical bottlenecks in Q2, the domestic market saw limited pricing power due to cautious downstream buying and fuel substitution trends.
• Overall, the Q2 Diesel Price Index uptrend was narrowly maintained by early June’s bullish cues, though structural weaknesses and muted demand are forecasted to pressure prices in July 2025.
Europe
• Diesel Price Index showed a mixed Q2 trend, ending lower than Q1 due to late-June price correction after Middle East ceasefire.
• Why did the price of Diesel change in July 2025?
Early July 2025 expected decrease, as risk premiums fade, imports stabilize, and speculative buying eases.
• Diesel Production Cost Trend: Rose early Q2 with crude spike, then declined as Brent fell post-ceasefire; refining margins briefly surged.
• Diesel Demand Outlook: Seasonal peak in jet, marine, and transport supported demand, but not enough to hold high prices into July.
• European refiners benefited early from wide cracks, but late-Q2 margin compression reduced gains amid lower diesel premiums.
• Diesel supply pressure eased in late Q2 as Middle East cargoes resumed, reducing tightness from early-quarter disruptions.
• EU’s proposed ban on diesel from Russian-origin crude (via third countries) adds long-term uncertainty but no short-term impact.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
Diesel prices in the USA followed a largely upward trend during Q1 2025, with prices closing higher compared to the previous quarter despite some fluctuations in March. In January, prices rose due to increased heating fuel demand driven by winter storm Enzo and strong domestic consumption.
However, warmer weather forecasts later in the month softened demand, overall market sentiment remained firm, supported by reduced inventories and refinery constraints. February saw a further price increase as cold temperatures in the Northeast intensified heating oil usage, and maintenance at key refineries tightened domestic supply. Strong diesel exports, particularly to Europe and South America, also contributed to reduced availability in the domestic market.
However, March witnessed a shift, with prices declining due to reduced industrial activity, weaker export prospects, and uncertainty from new U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy imports. Despite this softening, the overall quarterly price level remained elevated, largely driven by strong early-quarter demand, supply challenges, and global geopolitical influences. Compared to Q4 2024, diesel prices in Q1 2025 were higher by 3%, reflecting continued cost pressures across the U.S. fuel market.
APAC
Diesel prices in the APAC region showed a mixed but largely stable trend in Q1 2025. In January, prices rose in China, supported by a surge in international crude oil prices due to OPEC+ production cuts, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and stronger global demand expectations from winter cold waves. However, domestic diesel demand remained weak, tempering price gains. February saw prices inch slightly higher as post-holiday industrial and mining activities resumed, and pre-Spring Festival stockpiling supported demand. Supply constraints due to reduced refinery operations in Shandong and sustained diesel exports further bolstered prices.
In March, the trend reversed, and diesel prices declined twice due to falling global crude prices, eased geopolitical concerns, and signs of increased oil output from April. Domestic demand remained moderate, and refinery operating rates stayed stable, leading to inventory accumulation and softer pricing. Despite seasonal recovery in agriculture and construction, weak industrial and logistics activity limited demand. Overall, diesel prices in APAC remained relatively flat in Q1 2025, slipping 0.1% from the previous quarter.
Europe
In Q1 2025, diesel prices in Europe showed a mixed trend, with slight increases in certain sectors but underlying downward pressures. Diesel prices for used cars saw a marginal rise, up by 1.0%, driven by a slight increase in demand for used diesel vehicles. However, broader market trends pointed to potential price declines due to falling imports into Europe despite ample global supply. Diesel imports into core European regions dropped by 5% compared to Q1 2024, partly due to the reduction in refining capacity, including the permanent shutdown of the Gunvor Rotterdam refinery and closures in Wesseling and Grangemouth. These capacity losses were expected to tighten supply, making Europe more reliant on imports from other regions, such as the Middle East.
Seasonal demand also had mixed effects: colder weather in parts of Europe supported heating oil demand, but a warmer-than-expected winter dampened this impact. Furthermore, tariffs on Canadian diesel exports to the U.S. were implemented in March 2025, which could indirectly affect European diesel markets by altering supply dynamics. Additionally, the growing competition from electric vehicles continued to limit demand for diesel in the passenger vehicle sector. Despite these challenges, overall diesel prices remained relatively stable, as supply disruptions and a shift in refining capacity balanced out the downward pressures.
South America
Diesel prices in South America, particularly in Brazil, showed a fluctuating but overall declining trend in Q1 2025. In January, prices rose after Petrobras, the state-run oil company, implemented its first diesel price hike since late 2023, aligning domestic prices with international benchmarks. This move was influenced by global market conditions and inflationary concerns. February saw another 5% increase in prices due to continued pricing adjustments by Petrobras and state tax hikes. However, March brought a sharp turnaround, with prices falling significantly as domestic supply improved and imports dropped nearly 40%. Petrobras ramped up local diesel production, while Russia and Saudi Arabia remained key suppliers. The commissioning of new production assets further supported local availability. Despite stable demand from agriculture and logistics, the market saw weak support for elevated prices due to improved supply and competitive domestic rates. By the end of March, the downward momentum in prices outweighed earlier hikes, leading to an overall quarterly decline of 4.4% compared to Q4 2024.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, diesel prices in the United States followed a declining trend, primarily due to increased supply and a mild economic slowdown. October saw a slight incline in diesel prices, but by November, prices dropped as refinery operations ramped up following maintenance shutdowns.
The return of refineries to full production levels helped alleviate supply constraints, driving prices lower. Additionally, a warmer-than-expected start to the winter season dampened heating oil demand, contributing to a reduction in prices. By December, the downward trend continued, as inventories grew and demand for diesel softened due to factors like a less severe winter and lower domestic consumption. Although certain regions, like California, saw slight price increases, overall, the national average saw a notable decrease of about 7.0% from the previous year.
The rise in distillate inventories and robust refinery output helped support the market, despite regional variations in demand. In summary, the combination of stronger supply, milder seasonal demand, and increased exports to Europe resulted in a general decline in diesel prices across the U.S. throughout Q4 2024. Specifically in the U.S., the market experienced a 4% decrease from the previous quarter.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the diesel market in China experienced an overall declining price trend, primarily driven by weak domestic demand and reduced industrial activity. October saw an initial upward movement in diesel prices due to a combination of tightening fuel supply and declining refining output. Refiners reduced their runs due to weak refining margins, and China’s refining throughput continued to decrease year-on-year for the sixth consecutive month. This reduction in domestic supply was further compounded by lower crude oil imports, which created some pressure on the market. However, this price increase was somewhat moderated by the weak overall demand stemming from China’s broader economic slowdown and the shift towards new energy vehicles and LNG as alternatives to diesel.
By November, the diesel market started to experience a decline as demand continued to weaken, especially in sectors like agriculture and construction. The seasonal reduction in agricultural activity and outdoor projects, along with a slowdown in industrial operations, dampened consumption. Refineries responded by lowering prices to stimulate sales, and cautious procurement behavior from traders further suppressed price increases.
In December, the declining trend persisted as demand remained subdued, especially in northern China, where colder weather led to a further reduction in diesel consumption. Refineries maintained a steady supply but faced challenges from weak domestic demand, leading to continued price reductions. Diesel exports provided some support, but overall market conditions remained weak, further contributing to the downward price movement for the month. Thus, the quarter concluded with a continued decline in diesel prices across the region. In China, the market saw a 2% decline from the previous quarter.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European diesel market exhibited a mixed price trend influenced by a range of economic and supply-side factors. Economic headwinds, primarily driven by the ongoing inflationary environment and central bank tightening, dampened demand across Europe. Major economies like Germany and France saw notable declines in diesel consumption, reflecting broader structural challenges and the economic slowdown. Additionally, the transition to electric and hybrid vehicles continued to impact the demand for diesel, as fewer diesel-powered passenger vehicles were registered.
At the same time, diesel refining margins in Europe saw a significant decline, falling to levels considerably lower than in previous years. This downward trend in refining margins was driven by a combination of reduced demand and higher operational costs, particularly in the face of rising energy prices and inflationary pressures.
On the supply side, anticipated refinery closures in the region added uncertainty. While these closures, including major refineries in the UK and Germany, were expected to reduce refining capacity, their immediate impact on the market was tempered by the ability of Europe to absorb external diesel supplies, including from the US Gulf Coast. US diesel exports to Europe were notably higher, helping to stabilize the supply side despite the weakening domestic demand.
The outlook for European diesel prices remains mixed. The closure of refineries and ongoing shifts in global supply chains, including developments in Russia and the Middle East, are likely to have an impact on diesel pricing in the medium term. However, the structural decline in demand for diesel, driven by the energy transition and weaker economic conditions, is expected to keep downward pressure on prices in the near term.
South America
In Q4 2024, diesel prices in Brazil saw a consistent upward trend, driven by a mix of supply challenges, strong demand, and global market fluctuations. October experienced price stability despite volatility in international markets. While global diesel prices, including those in the U.S. Gulf Coast, declined, Brazil’s diesel prices remained steady due to high imports and robust demand, particularly from the agricultural sector during the corn harvest. Diesel imports reached a two-year high, with Russia being the main supplier, though the market saw pressure from a seasonal dip in demand and high inventories at ports.
In November, diesel prices saw a slight increase, reflecting stable supply-demand dynamics and Petrobras’ market interventions. The depreciation of the Brazilian real contributed to rising import costs, though the expansion of domestic refining capacity helped to maintain a balance. By December, diesel prices experienced a more significant rise due to increased costs for imports, fueled by fluctuations in the exchange rate. The price gap between imported and domestic diesel widened, particularly at ports like Santos and Itaqui. Despite higher production levels, Brazil's reliance on imports continued, driving prices up for the quarter. Overall, the market experienced a 1% increase from the previous quarter.
