For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Electricity cost Price Index rose by 0.45% quarter-over-quarter, driven by data-center demand.
• The average Electricity cost price for the quarter was approximately USD 89.00/MT, reflecting steadier wholesale fundamentals.
• Electricity Spot Price fell in December as stronger wind and solar generation reduced peak prices.
• Electricity Price Forecast stays broadly neutral near-term as fuel stability and renewables modestly offset risks.
• Electricity Production Cost Trend rose due to coal logistics increases, despite steady gas and nuclear.
• Electricity Demand Outlook softened as mild weather and manufacturing contraction reduced industrial and residential consumption.
• Inventory and export demand remained muted while the Electricity Price Index reflected softer spot clearings.
• Major generator outages were absent, sustaining reliability; merchant hedging and retail competition limited price volatility.
Why did the price of electricity cost change in December 2025 in North America?
• Below-normal heating demand reduced consumption, while increased renewables expanded supply, modestly lowering December price pressures.
• Comfortable reserve margins and absent outages reduced scarcity premiums, partly offsetting coal logistics cost increases.
• Persistent data-center power demand provided upward pressure despite flat industrial and softer residential electricity consumption.
Asia
• During Q4 2025, the Asia Electricity Cost Price Index remained largely stable, reflecting balanced power generation, regulated tariff structures, and steady fuel availability across major Asian economies.
• The Electricity cost Spot Price showed minimal volatility through the quarter, as utilities maintained stable dispatch rates and governments continued price-monitoring mechanisms to avoid sharp tariff fluctuations.
• Power generation from coal, gas, hydro, and renewables remained sufficient, helping contain fluctuations in the Electricity cost Production Cost Trend despite periodic fuel price movements.
• Industrial and commercial power consumption stayed moderate, while residential demand remained seasonally stable, supporting a neutral Electricity cost Demand Outlook across Asia.
Why did the price of Electricity Cost change in December 2025?
• Utilities across Asia maintained inventory discipline for fuel stocks, preventing sudden increases in the Electricity cost Spot Price during peak winter demand in select regions.
• The Electricity cost Production Cost Trend stayed rangebound, as stable coal prices, moderate LNG procurement costs, and higher renewable penetration balanced overall generation expenses.
• From a forward-looking perspective, the Electricity cost Price Forecast for early 2026 indicates continued stability, barring extreme weather events or unexpected fuel supply disruptions.
• Overall, the Electricity cost Demand Outlook for Asia remains stable-to-neutral, supported by gradual industrial recovery, controlled residential consumption, and expanding renewable capacity.
Europe
• In Spain, the Electricity cost Index fell by 2.96% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting milder demand and renewables.
• The average Electricity cost price for the quarter was approximately USD 76.47/MT, reflecting seasonal volatility marketwide.
• Reduced wind and hydro lowered the Electricity Spot Price volatility, easing procurement costs for consumers.
• Market models suggest the Electricity Price Forecast points to modest seasonal upside amid constrained capacity.
• Rising thermal generation reliance pushed Electricity Production Cost Trend upward, driven by higher fuel costs.
• Mild weather and softer industrial output informed the near-term Electricity Demand Outlook, limiting price pressure.
• Inventory dynamics and brief net-export status tightened local supply, supporting the Electricity Price Index during supply disruptions.
• Planned nuclear outages and lower wind output elevated reliance on thermal units, pressuring wholesale margins.
Why did the price of electricity cost change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Reduced renewable generation share tightened supply, increasing marginal generation from expensive thermal plants during December.
• Planned nuclear refueling outages removed baseload capacity, amplifying dependence on higher-cost conventional generation and margins.
• Milder demand and cheaper external gas lowered CCGT marginal costs earlier, but seasonal swing reversed in December.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Electricity Cost Price Index rose by 2.15% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting renewable generation gains.
• The average Electricity Cost price for the quarter was approximately USD 88.60/MT supporting affordability broadly.
• Electricity Cost Spot Price remained stable due to increased solar capacity, enhanced battery storage flexibility.
• Electricity Cost Price Forecast indicates upward pressure from fuel cost volatility, tempered by renewable additions.
• Electricity Cost Production Cost Trend trended marginally higher as intermittent fuel costs increased balancing expenses.
• Electricity Cost Demand Outlook steady; industrial growth is offset by efficiency and growing demand response measures.
• Electricity Cost Price Index was muted as storage reduced peak price spikes and smoothed volatility.
• Inventory levels and grid reserves increased, reducing export-driven price spikes; major plants maintained reliable operations.
Why did the price of Electricity Cost change in September 2025 in North America?
• Higher renewable generation and battery additions improved supply flexibility, relieving short-term electricity cost pressures materially.
• Fuel price fluctuations increased balancing requirements but were offset by low-cost renewable contributions and storage.
• Stable industrial demand and expanded renewable capacity supported affordability, keeping Electricity Cost Price Index contained.
Asia
• Price Index for electricity cost in China was stable to slightly lower across most regions in Q3 2025, reflecting falling commodity input costs and the effects of market-based reforms in renewables.
• Production cost trend eased in Q3 as fuel (coal/gas) input costs dipped and renewables reduced reliance on thermal generation; however, some provinces still show higher production costs due to transmission bottlenecks and batch/ancillary processes in heavy-industry centres.
• Demand outlook is moderate growth — robust data-centre and electrification demand (AI, cloud services) offset some weakness in traditional manufacturing; overall Electricity CostDemand Outlook projects continued growth but with uneven provincial patterns.
Why did the price of Electricity cost change in September 2025 in China?
• September saw slight decreases because commodity input prices (coal/gas) eased, lowering marginal generation costs, and increased renewable dispatch from solar and wind (and ongoing market reforms) pushed more low-cost generation into the grid, exerting downward pressure on the Price Index.
Europe
• In Spain, the Electricity cost Price Index rose by 142.273% quarter-over-quarter, driven by seasonal accounting adjustments.
• The average Electricity cost price for the quarter was approximately USD 78.80/MT, reflecting electricity cost average Q3.
• Electricity cost Spot Price softened as renewables increased output; wholesale gas price declines reduced generation costs.
• Electricity cost Price Forecast remains tempered by summer renewable dominance, demand recovery, and gas supply dampening spikes.
• Electricity cost Production Cost Trend benefited from lower TTF gas benchmarks and generation expenses in Spain.
• Electricity cost Demand Outlook weak for the quarter with consumption down, limiting price pressure amid supply constraints.
• Electricity cost Price Index volatility reflected large quarter base effects and renewable generation share displacing thermal units.
• Grid operational constraints and seasonal maintenance affected deliveries while exports and storage dynamics influenced spreads.
Why did the price of Electricity cost change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Renewable generation dominance reduced marginal costs, exerting downward pressure on electricity wholesale Price Index levels.
• Lower TTF gas benchmarks cut thermal generation expenses, contributing materially to observed production cost declines.
• Soft demand across Europe and modest Spanish consumption reductions constrained spot price recovery and volatility.
