For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the last quarter of 2022, mixed price dynamics were observed in the North American market on account of production capacity and demand strength. The Ethanol prices increased towards the mid-quarter as the production capacity increased and the stock was low. The employment rate declined, and the inflation rate remained persistently higher in the country, impacting the final prices. The feedstock (corn) prices were also high during the food crisis and high energy costs. Towards the quarter's end, the stockpile increased, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Christmas and New Year holidays, along with the disruption caused by the storm Elliot, declined the overall Ethanol market prices. The demand for Ethanol for gasoline production remained moderate in the regional market.
Asia Pacific
The overall market dynamics of Ethanol in the Asia-Pacific market remained stable throughout the fourth quarter of 2022. The Chinese market witnessed a hike in COVID infection cases, hampering the production capacity in the domestic market. Major financial hubs of the country halted production amidst the economic disruption in the country. Towards the quarter's end, Ethanol prices rebounded as the production cost increased. Commodity prices increased, and the demand for the product for biofuel production became moderate. The energy cost in the regional market soared along with the coal prices in the Asian market throughout the quarter, proportionally impacting the final prices of Ethanol. Restricted movement and New year holidays in the country impacted the final production cost of Ethanol in the Asian market.
Europe
In the European market, the market prices of Ethanol followed the northward momentum in Q4 of 2022. Economic uncertainty remained continuous in the European market leading to high inflation rates and energy prices proportionally impacting the production cost of Ethanol. The EU focused more on producing sugar and fulfilling the food shortage in the country. Importing prices of Ethanol in the country increased from Germany, and end users showcased a stable market trend. With increasing energy prices, the demand for Ethanol-blended fuel remained on a positive edge; hence, the final prices in the last quarter followed the northward momentum.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the third quarter of 2022, Ethanol prices experienced mixed sentiments in the US market. According to experts, ethanol production remained on the lower side in July. However, demand for the commodity increased in August as corn and sugarcane prices followed the domestic market's upward trend. The cost of producing Ethanol increased in the domestic market as significant players saw a frenzy to feed supply to meet domestic demand. The product's demand from downstream, pharmaceutical, and biofuel production remained strong, causing price inclination in the US market. Suppliers and Ethanol manufacturers received fewer inquiries about the product from end-use businesses, resulting in a decrease in Ethanol prices in the local market. The demand from the international market was at an all-time high, significantly raising domestic prices.
Asia Pacific
During the third quarter of 2022, Ethanol prices witnessed mixed sentiments in the Asian market owing to the robust demand outlook and feedstock availability. According to the Renewable Fuel Association (US), the Chinese government imported less Ethanol from the US, showcasing less demand from the downstream sector. However, the demand for Ethanol in China increased towards the quarter as biofuel production increased. In India, Ethanol prices increased by more than 3% as the Indian government met its 10% ethanol-based fuel target and now wants to increase the ethanol quantity. The cost of producing Ethanol in Asian countries has also risen due to rising fuel prices. Ethanol prices towards the end of Q3 were observed at USD 1050 per MT, Ex-Shanghai (China).
Europe
In the European market, Ethanol prices fell in the third quarter of 2022 owing to rising recession fears and soaring natural gas prices. Due to higher inflationary rates and lower Ethanol supply, demand for Ethanol from biofuel production in the German market remained under pressure. During the third quarter, the North Sea ports of Germany experienced a union worker strike, which delayed transit and hampered supply. The country's major ports have piled up vessels with less momentum. The lag in Ethanol prices in Germany was caused by feedstock corn and sugarcane prices, as well as weak demand from the pharmaceutical and personal care sectors. However, feedstock, corn, and sugarcane prices remained low throughout August, affecting ethanol prices in the domestic market proportionally. In September, the prices of Ethanol were USD 1180 per MT, CFR Hamburg (Germany).
For the quarter ending June 2022
North America
In the North American market, Ethanol prices regained their strength and were observed at a positive edge during the second quarter of 2022. Major players of Ethanol quoted the costs as $998 per MT, FOB Texas towards the quarter-end. Commodity inflation occurred succeeding the war between Russia and Ukraine. Corn and sugarcane prices skyrocketed in the second quarter as the crop yield in the regional market declined. As compared with Q1, a hike of 2% was witnessed in the prices of Ethanol as the production cost elevated, accompanied by the escalated feedstock prices. The demand for biofuel production was also high in the regional market, governing Ethanol market dynamics in the North American region.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia-Pacific market, the prices of Ethanol declined during the second quarter of 2022 due to rising COVID infection and lack of production activity. The quarter started with a positive note at the prices of Ethanol as they were quoted at $1140 per MT, Ex-Shanghai in April. Despite the increase in feedstock, corn prices, and slow demand from end-users, the market sentiments remained on the brim. Facets such as rising infection, strict lockdown, and public holidays halted the operational rate of Ethanol in the regional market. The vessel movement got restricted, leading to a supply shortage among significant manufacturers of Ethanol. In South Korea, truckers went on strike, halting the operational rate of Ethanol in the regional market. Towards the end of the quarter, the market prices were observed at $1122 per MT, Ex-Shanghai, China.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2022, Ethanol prices followed the European market's upward trajectory. The inflated commodity prices raised the feedstock, corn, and sugarcane prices, leading to high production costs. Gasoline prices also elevated in the European region as the temperature rises. Furthermore, the rough transportation of the product from major supplying countries such as the US and Brazil led to shortages among the manufacturers. This increment led to high production costs, consequently impacting the production cost of Ethanol during the Q2. The significant facet governing the prices of Ethanol is the surging demand for Ethanol for biofuel production. Continuous demand from the end-users has proportionally influenced the market dynamics of Ethanol. As a ripple effect, the prices got assembled at USD 1480 per MT, FD FD Frankurt, Germany towards the quarter-end.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In the first quarter of 2022, the prices of Ethanol in the North American market fluctuated from USD775/ton, FOB Texas to USD 870/ton, FOB Texas USA towards the first quarter end of 2022. As compared with Q4 of 2021, the prices have witnessed a decline of 19% in Q1 of 2022, as the tension between Russia and Ukraine escalated and ethanol manufacturers faced tight supplies from feed (corn) producers. The prices of corn skyrocketed during this quarter, as a ripple effect, the production cost of Ethanol soared towards the quarter end. These all factors have contributed largely to the prices of Ethanol in the North American market.
Asia Pacific
In the Northern Market, the prices of Ethanol surged accompanied by the hiked prices of feed (corn) in the first quarter of 2022. The prices observed in Q1 of 2022 showcased a hike of 20% as compared with Q4 of 2021. Robust demand from downstream pharmaceutical, cosmetics affected the prices of Ethanol in the Asian market positively. The tension between Russia and Ukraine resulted in feedstock supply as trade route disruption occurred, forcing the manufacturers to spike up the production cost of Ethanol. The prices in China at the quarter end of 2022 were observed at USD1175/ton, Ex-Shanghai, China. Moreover, the implementation of lockdown in China have halted the production of Ethanol temporarily.
Europe
The prices of Ethanol in the first quarter of 2022 showed sporadic momentum throughout the first quarter in the European market. Varying demand from end users such as disinfectant affected the prices of Ethanol. When compared with the previous quarter of 2021, the prices have shown an escalation of 4% in Europe. Shortage of feed corn and sugarcane occurred due to the war between Russia and Ukraine negatively affecting the trade route, which showed directly proportional effect on the prices of Ethanol. In this quarter, the prices of Ethanol ranged from USD1075/ton, CFR Hamburg to USD1055/ton CFR Hamburg, Germany, towards the quarter ending March 2022.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2021, North America’s Ethanol market remained consolidated throughout the quarter. The demand outlook from the domestic and overseas market exceeds the production capabilities as the high prices of corn forced the plants to reduce their production capabilities. Whereas, numerous plants declared turnarounds ahead of the schedule to avoid high-priced feedstock. Several market participants were anticipating that the current trend is likely to prevail till the next quarter. As a ripple effect, the Ethanol offers soared to the historical high in the Q4 of 2021, and FOB California discussion for Ethanol was peaked at USD 694 per tonne, in November 2021.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the Ethanol market in the Asia Pacific persistently soared the prices for showcased mixed sentiments based on the regions. Ethanol offers soared throughout the Asia Pacific due to numerous reasons. However, in India, the decision of Indian authorities to boost domestic Ethanol production led to a larger deficit in the global sugar supply. In addition, recently GAIL and GACL JV set up a second-generation Bio-Ethanol plant in Gujrat India. As a ripple effect, the Ex-Mumbai offers for Ethanol were settled at USD 810 per tonne, during the quarter ending December 2021.
Europe
Since, July 2021, the EU Commission set of proposals term “Fit for 55 Package” to align with the European Green Deal and European Climate change setting stricter norms to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Whereas, the ongoing energy crisis and limited Natural Gas stocks, supply concerns kept the domestic market sentiments depressing in Europe. In terms of demand outlook, the German market in 2021 failed to mirror the gains witnessed in France and UK. As a ripple effect, the offers for Ethanol in the German market remained buoyed, and CFR Hamburg's discussion for Ethanol was settled at USD 1056 per tonne, during the quarter ending in December 2021.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The prices of Ethanol rose significantly in the market of North America in Q3 2021. Limited supply of feedstock, logistics issues, tight production, and continuous rise in the crude oil prices led to the soaring ethanol prices in the region during Q3. Hike in the demand from major downstream industries was observed during the quarter. Exporters revealed that the demand for feedstock corn from China increased effectively in Q3 2021, which further affected the prices of feedstock corn in the US market. Some plant turnarounds reported due to aftermaths of Hurricane Ida affected the regional supply. The FOB price of Ethanol was assessed at USD 849/MT during the final week of September in the US.
Asia
The prices of Ethanol remained stable to firm throughout the 3rd quarter of 2021 in the Asia Pacific region. Disruption in the supply of Ethanol was observed during Q3 influenced by the increased freight costs in China. In India, the price of Ethanol was settled around USD 726 per MT in the month of September. The price trend remained stagnant in the country owing to the stable demand from the domestic market and ample stock availability. Market players mentioned that the ambition of blending 20% Ethanol in fuel is getting tougher due to inflationary trend in its feedstock prices.
Europe
The European market witnessed a hike in the prices of Ethanol due to low raw material availability, high purchasing power, lower industrial production, and higher logistic costs in the third quarter of 2021. The demand for Ethanol grew at an exponential pace from the downstream industries during Q3. The pricing kept the uptrend in the European region due to the international pressure.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
Ethanol prices traced an upward trajectory during this quarter in USA, backed by firm downstream demand and feedstock shortage in the country. Major reason behind the consistent rise in prices was huge shortage of feedstock corn and sugarcane in the global market. Major USA exporters revealed that demand for feedstock corn from China increased effectively over this period, which also affected the prices of feedstock corn in US market. Therefore, huge spike in prices of feedstock commodities and high demand from fuel blending sector led to a consistent rise in prices of Ethanol in the country. Thus, prices of Ethanol hovered around USD 1585/MT during the final week of June in USA.
Asia
Prices of Ethanol increased in Asia during this quarter, backed by several domestic and global factors. In India, the rise was primarily driven by strong domestic demand following high consumption from sanitizer manufacturers under resurgence of pandemic. Besides, demand from pharmaceuticals sector remained firm throughout the quarter in Indian market. Meanwhile, China faced huge shortage of feedstock corn and sugarcane in the country, and manufacturers were compelled to procure expensive feedstock from USA, which led to a consistent increment in price of Ethanol in the country during this timeframe. Therefore, after an effective rise throughout the quarter, prices of Ethanol hovered around USD 1040/MT in the last week of May in India.
Europe
European market experienced frequent fluctuations in demand for Ethanol during this quarter. Uncertainties regarding pandemic cases in the major Europe maintained the market volatility of the region, which caused an uncertain demand outlook during this quarter. Prices kept on rising due to international pressure, where feedstock prices pushed up the prices of Ethanol in the global market. Therefore, despite of the demand volatility, prices of Ethanol remained firm across Europe during Q2 2021.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
In North America, the price of Ethanol surged due to production cuts and high demand from the domestic consumers as well as for exports. Ethanol prices skyrocketed during Q1 2021 as an effect of low feedstock corn availability. Furthermore, winter season disrupted the production activity across the gulf coast that led several production plants to face unplanned shutdowns during January-February. In addition, USA exports skyrocketed due to sudden rise in export demand from China.
Asia
In the Asian markets, overall demand for Ethanol remained firm from the downstream sectors during Q1 2021. In China, demand from the disinfectant sector maintained stability over the prior quarter. Furthermore, to satisfy this demand, China imported a huge quantity of Ethanol from the US. In addition, feedstock corn prices in China were 35-45% high. Meanwhile, in the Indian market, heavy availability of feedstock sugarcane pushing down the prices of Ethanol for 3 months consecutively, CFR India prices of Ethanol settled down from USD 883.2 per MT (January 2021) to USD 750 per MT (March 2021).
Europe
Limited supply for Ethanol across the region supported its prices during Q1 2021. Though Europe is largely depending upon Ethanol imports from USA, tight supply kept a tab on the product availability. The supply from USA remained low due to low feedstock production and high exports and domestic demand in the country. Meanwhile the demand from disinfectant or sanitizers manufacturers remained stable throughout the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
North America
The demand for Ethanol in North America showcased stagnancy after a rapid spring rally in the previous quarter. In August and September, the demand as well as the production plateaued and settled below the critical levels in comparison to thick corn harvest. As per the available data, the demand is primarily a result of the falling stock in contrast to the consistent rise in production since the beginning of July. The upward trend in Ethanol demand as fuel is also in jeopardy, with U.S ending with its peak seasonal travelling months.
Asia
The Asian Ethanol market faced marginal supply shortage as a fuel as well as an additive in beverage. With fears of resurgence of coronavirus in several parts of the region, the demand for Ethanol is expected to receive further boost as a feedstock for sanitizer and cleaning products in the coming months. Meanwhile, as traders and several downstream buyers are looking forward to pile-up feedstock to prepare for the tightened supply after the harvest season, the demand for Ethanol is anticipated to further move up. Capacity additions and expansions for Ethanol production on enhanced government support in India is likely to provide relief on the supply side in the near future.
Europe
The European Ethanol market witnessed further gains with travelling and trade activities tracing pre lockdown levels resulting in its increased demand as fuel. Manufacturers and traders remained optimistic over improved offtakes of the product as end-use industries begun stock piling ahead of the winter season to eliminate risk of supply shortage in the next quarter. However, with the fresh wave of coronavirus cases frightening the country in early September, an astonishing fear of demand uncertainty has prevailed in the near term.
