For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In the first quarter of 2022, the prices of Ethanol in the North American market fluctuated from USD775/ton, FOB Texas to USD 870/ton, FOB Texas USA towards the first quarter end of 2022. As compared with Q4 of 2021, the prices have witnessed a decline of 19% in Q1 of 2022, as the tension between Russia and Ukraine escalated and ethanol manufacturers faced tight supplies from feed (corn) producers. The prices of corn skyrocketed during this quarter, as a ripple effect, the production cost of Ethanol soared towards the quarter end. These all factors have contributed largely to the prices of Ethanol in the North American market.
Asia Pacific
In the Northern Market, the prices of Ethanol surged accompanied by the hiked prices of feed (corn) in the first quarter of 2022. The prices observed in Q1 of 2022 showcased a hike of 20% as compared with Q4 of 2021. Robust demand from downstream pharmaceutical, cosmetics affected the prices of Ethanol in the Asian market positively. The tension between Russia and Ukraine resulted in feedstock supply as trade route disruption occurred, forcing the manufacturers to spike up the production cost of Ethanol. The prices in China at the quarter end of 2022 were observed at USD1175/ton, Ex-Shanghai, China. Moreover, the implementation of lockdown in China have halted the production of Ethanol temporarily.
Europe
The prices of Ethanol in the first quarter of 2022 showed sporadic momentum throughout the first quarter in the European market. Varying demand from end users such as disinfectant affected the prices of Ethanol. When compared with the previous quarter of 2021, the prices have shown an escalation of 4% in Europe. Shortage of feed corn and sugarcane occurred due to the war between Russia and Ukraine negatively affecting the trade route, which showed directly proportional effect on the prices of Ethanol. In this quarter, the prices of Ethanol ranged from USD1075/ton, CFR Hamburg to USD1055/ton CFR Hamburg, Germany, towards the quarter ending March 2022.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2021, North America’s Ethanol market remained consolidated throughout the quarter. The demand outlook from the domestic and overseas market exceeds the production capabilities as the high prices of corn forced the plants to reduce their production capabilities. Whereas, numerous plants declared turnarounds ahead of the schedule to avoid high-priced feedstock. Several market participants were anticipating that the current trend is likely to prevail till the next quarter. As a ripple effect, the Ethanol offers soared to the historical high in the Q4 of 2021, and FOB California discussion for Ethanol was peaked at USD 694 per tonne, in November 2021.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the Ethanol market in the Asia Pacific persistently soared the prices for showcased mixed sentiments based on the regions. Ethanol offers soared throughout the Asia Pacific due to numerous reasons. However, in India, the decision of Indian authorities to boost domestic Ethanol production led to a larger deficit in the global sugar supply. In addition, recently GAIL and GACL JV set up a second-generation Bio-Ethanol plant in Gujrat India. As a ripple effect, the Ex-Mumbai offers for Ethanol were settled at USD 810 per tonne, during the quarter ending December 2021.
Europe
Since, July 2021, the EU Commission set of proposals term “Fit for 55 Package” to align with the European Green Deal and European Climate change setting stricter norms to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Whereas, the ongoing energy crisis and limited Natural Gas stocks, supply concerns kept the domestic market sentiments depressing in Europe. In terms of demand outlook, the German market in 2021 failed to mirror the gains witnessed in France and UK. As a ripple effect, the offers for Ethanol in the German market remained buoyed, and CFR Hamburg's discussion for Ethanol was settled at USD 1056 per tonne, during the quarter ending in December 2021.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The prices of Ethanol rose significantly in the market of North America in Q3 2021. Limited supply of feedstock, logistics issues, tight production, and continuous rise in the crude oil prices led to the soaring ethanol prices in the region during Q3. Hike in the demand from major downstream industries was observed during the quarter. Exporters revealed that the demand for feedstock corn from China increased effectively in Q3 2021, which further affected the prices of feedstock corn in the US market. Some plant turnarounds reported due to aftermaths of Hurricane Ida affected the regional supply. The FOB price of Ethanol was assessed at USD 849/MT during the final week of September in the US.
Asia
The prices of Ethanol remained stable to firm throughout the 3rd quarter of 2021 in the Asia Pacific region. Disruption in the supply of Ethanol was observed during Q3 influenced by the increased freight costs in China. In India, the price of Ethanol was settled around USD 726 per MT in the month of September. The price trend remained stagnant in the country owing to the stable demand from the domestic market and ample stock availability. Market players mentioned that the ambition of blending 20% Ethanol in fuel is getting tougher due to inflationary trend in its feedstock prices.
Europe
The European market witnessed a hike in the prices of Ethanol due to low raw material availability, high purchasing power, lower industrial production, and higher logistic costs in the third quarter of 2021. The demand for Ethanol grew at an exponential pace from the downstream industries during Q3. The pricing kept the uptrend in the European region due to the international pressure.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
Ethanol prices traced an upward trajectory during this quarter in USA, backed by firm downstream demand and feedstock shortage in the country. Major reason behind the consistent rise in prices was huge shortage of feedstock corn and sugarcane in the global market. Major USA exporters revealed that demand for feedstock corn from China increased effectively over this period, which also affected the prices of feedstock corn in US market. Therefore, huge spike in prices of feedstock commodities and high demand from fuel blending sector led to a consistent rise in prices of Ethanol in the country. Thus, prices of Ethanol hovered around USD 1585/MT during the final week of June in USA.
Asia
Prices of Ethanol increased in Asia during this quarter, backed by several domestic and global factors. In India, the rise was primarily driven by strong domestic demand following high consumption from sanitizer manufacturers under resurgence of pandemic. Besides, demand from pharmaceuticals sector remained firm throughout the quarter in Indian market. Meanwhile, China faced huge shortage of feedstock corn and sugarcane in the country, and manufacturers were compelled to procure expensive feedstock from USA, which led to a consistent increment in price of Ethanol in the country during this timeframe. Therefore, after an effective rise throughout the quarter, prices of Ethanol hovered around USD 1040/MT in the last week of May in India.
Europe
European market experienced frequent fluctuations in demand for Ethanol during this quarter. Uncertainties regarding pandemic cases in the major Europe maintained the market volatility of the region, which caused an uncertain demand outlook during this quarter. Prices kept on rising due to international pressure, where feedstock prices pushed up the prices of Ethanol in the global market. Therefore, despite of the demand volatility, prices of Ethanol remained firm across Europe during Q2 2021.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
Asia
In the Asian markets, overall demand for Ethanol remained firm from the downstream sectors during Q1 2021. In China, demand from the disinfectant sector maintained stability over the prior quarter. Furthermore, to satisfy this demand, China imported a huge quantity of Ethanol from the US. In addition, feedstock corn prices in China were 35-45% high. Meanwhile, in the Indian market, heavy availability of feedstock sugarcane pushing down the prices of Ethanol for 3 months consecutively, CFR India prices of Ethanol settled down from USD 883.2 per MT (January 2021) to USD 750 per MT (March 2021).
North America
In North America, the price of Ethanol surged due to production cuts and high demand from the domestic consumers as well as for exports. Ethanol prices skyrocketed during Q1 2021 as an effect of low feedstock corn availability. Furthermore, winter season disrupted the production activity across the gulf coast that led several production plants to face unplanned shutdowns during January-February. In addition, USA exports skyrocketed due to sudden rise in export demand from China.
Europe
Limited supply for Ethanol across the region supported its prices during Q1 2021. Though Europe is largely depending upon Ethanol imports from USA, tight supply kept a tab on the product availability. The supply from USA remained low due to low feedstock production and high exports and domestic demand in the country. Meanwhile the demand from disinfectant or sanitizers manufacturers remained stable throughout the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
Asia
The Asian Ethanol market faced marginal supply shortage as a fuel as well as an additive in beverage. With fears of resurgence of coronavirus in several parts of the region, the demand for Ethanol is expected to receive further boost as a feedstock for sanitizer and cleaning products in the coming months. Meanwhile, as traders and several downstream buyers are looking forward to pile-up feedstock to prepare for the tightened supply after the harvest season, the demand for Ethanol is anticipated to further move up. Capacity additions and expansions for Ethanol production on enhanced government support in India is likely to provide relief on the supply side in the near future.
Europe
The European Ethanol market witnessed further gains with travelling and trade activities tracing pre lockdown levels resulting in its increased demand as fuel. Manufacturers and traders remained optimistic over improved offtakes of the product as end-use industries begun stock piling ahead of the winter season to eliminate risk of supply shortage in the next quarter. However, with the fresh wave of coronavirus cases frightening the country in early September, an astonishing fear of demand uncertainty has prevailed in the near term.
North America
The demand for Ethanol in North America showcased stagnancy after a rapid spring rally in the previous quarter. In August and September, the demand as well as the production plateaued and settled below the critical levels in comparison to thick corn harvest. As per the available data, the demand is primarily a result of the falling stock in contrast to the consistent rise in production since the beginning of July. The upward trend in Ethanol demand as fuel is also in jeopardy, with U.S ending with its peak seasonal travelling months.
