Ethylene Price Trend and Forecast

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Market Overview

For the Quarter Ending September 2021

North America

In Q3 2021, Ethylene prices traced a downward trajectory during this quarter in USA, after gaining tremendous highs in the previous quarter backed by the ample availability of the product as industries operated at high efficiencies in this quarter. US Ethylene witnessed a whooping rise in mid-July across Texas and Louisiana backed by the unplanned outages. In August, despite the climate calamity in the Gulf Coast of US, prices gained stability owing to the resumption in the production plants with little or no delay after the Ida Hurricane aftermath. Therefore, the FOB-US prices of Ethylene hovered around USD 1025/MT to USD 910/MT from July to September. Surging demand from downstream sectors is anticipated to push the prices of Ethylene in the upcoming months.

Asia

Asian market witnessed an exponential rise in the prices of Ethylene in the third quarter supported by an unprecedented hike in the values feedstock Naphtha. In addition, Ida hurricane in USA caused supply chain disruption that led to the crippled availability of feedstock Naphtha in the region. The Chinese Ethylene market showcased mixed sentiments in the quarter aided by the supply chain disruption caused by various factors such as congestion at several ports of China along with the lower imports from US. However, players kept their inventories at low levels to keep the upbeat sentiments. Ethylene prices in Indian market remained influenced by the upstream crude value, lower import from the USA, and soaring freight charges due to the shortage of shipping containers. In India, tightened supply led to the scarcity of the product in the domestic market that contributed to the inflation in the prices of Ethylene during this period. Therefore, Ex Mumbai Ethylene prices were assessed at USD 1022.59/MT in India witnessed a hike of USD 130.78/MT from July to September.

Europe

In Q3 2021, European market faced mixed sentiments for Ethylene across the region. A marginal surge in the values of Ethylene was observed from July to August backed by the limited availability of the product and higher logistic costs. However, in the later half of the quarter, Ethylene prices fell taking cues from reduced consumer purchasing power and ample availability of stock in the region. FR Hamburg Ethylene prices rose to USD 1002 per MT in August showcasing a slight hike of USD 4 per MT since July and then a decline of USD 37 per MT is in September.

For the Quarter Ending June 2021

North America

North America witnessed volatility in Ethylene prices during this quarter, backed by fluctuation in upstream crude values and uncertain demand from the global market. Revival in economic activities led to spike in demand for downstream polymers in USA. While due to insufficient plant operations, supply of downstream commodities remained short, and prices kept on rising throughout the quarter. The demand for Ethylene hovered toward the end of quarter, as the refining activities ran well, but the international demand declined with resurgence in pandemic cases in some European countries.

Asia

Asian market witnessed several price fluctuations during this quarter, which varied country over country. In India, Ethylene prices remained influenced by demand supply gap, resurgence in pandemic cases, upstream crude values and import-export activities. In April demand readily reduced due to sudden surge in pandemic cases in the country as it led to closing of market activities. In addition, in the mid of pandemic trading activities remained halted which also impacted the overall price dynamic in the country. Therefore, prices of Ethylene were accessed at USD 690/MT and USD 843.2/MT for China and India respectively during first week of June. In China, market also remained volatile that led to several negative fluctuations in the quarter, but most of the fluctuations were supported by supply gap in the country amidst demand stability.

Europe

European market faced mixed sentiments during this quarter for Ethylene across the region, as the demand fluctuated with resurgence in pandemic cases. Downstream polymer prices kept on rising during this period due to inadequate spot availability amid stable to firm demand from downstream end users. However, Ethylene prices kept fluctuating with changing crude values in the global market, where overall outlook remained bullish for Ethylene during this quarter for the European market.

For the Quarter Ending March 2021

Asia

The Asian market faced huge demand for Ethylene and its derivatives from downstream sectors which significantly supported its prices. In China, Ethylene demand suddenly surged after lunar holidays, but tight supply boosted the prices. Meanwhile, South Korean Hanwha’s 310 KTPA manufacturing unit went for partial shutdown in March. This shutdown was implemented to expand its production capacity and it is anticipated to resume its operation in early Q2 2021. Furthermore, in February 2021, Sinopec Yangzi petrochemicals in China, shut down its naphtha cracker of production capacity 450,000 tonnes Ethylene per year for maintenance, which later resumed its operations in March. Amid high demand from downstream products manufacturers, lower supply spiked up the prices of Ethylene across the region. In India, supply shortages during January to February pushed up the prices of Ethylene to USD 854 per MT which later came down again to USD 828 per MT in March in effect of improvement in supply activities.

North America

North America struggled to satisfy rising demand of Ethylene as several production facilities faced force majeure and unplanned shutdowns during Q1 2021. Eastman chemicals at Longview, Texas suspended its operations after arrival of icy weather during February. Its plant capacity is 730,000 MT Ethylene per year. Meanwhile, INEOS also has undertaken its Ethylene plant of capacity 1.88 million MT per year off stream located at Texas. Similarly, several other plants dented the regional supply chain of Ethylene that skyrocketed the prices of Ethylene and its derivative products globally.

Europe

The European market had a firm demand from downstream sectors, though the supply remained tight due to several reasons. Container shortages reduced the exports and imports of feedstock materials across the region and some unplanned outages reduced the global supply for Ethylene. Price trend in Europe overall remained up, amid high demand and constrained product availability.

For the Quarter Ending September 2020

Asia

Ethylene sentiments were heard muted-to-low, entering the third quarter on the back of ample supplies and stable demand. Sharp reduction in prices was observed in the first half of the quarter with offers bidding around USD 750-800/t CFR northeast Asia for July & August. However, as several major producers went temporarily offline by the end of the third quarter to balance out their inventory levels, supply started getting tightened. Singapore-based ExxonMobil shut its 1mn tpy cracker for its long overdue maintenance in mid-September till the end of October. To ease supply side issues, buyers in Southeast Asia were seen opting for deep-sea and Middle East origin cargoes. On the demand front, spot demand was bolstered by improved PE operations due to the expected return in demand during the peak season in several Asian countries.

Ethylene Market Analysis: Plant Capacity, Production, Operating Efficiency, Technology, Process, Demand & Supply, End-User Industries, Distribution Channel, Regional Demand, 2015-2030

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Services

Market Analysis

Company-wise installed capacity, production volume and plant operating efficiency is captured directly from manufacturers. Import and Export volume is captured from government sources and demand for Ethylene is calculated considering the production, import, export and inventory-levels on the country and regional level markets.

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Pricing Analysis

The product price is correlated with the price trend of crude oil, demand-supply gap, fluctuations in the feedstock and with the market movement of the downstream sectors.

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Company Profile

Basic details and information on financial performance of leading global players in the Ethylene market is presented in a visually captivating manner. Expansion plans and the company’s strategy is also captured to understand the vision and mission of the company to help understand the areas where companies need to focus more.

News & Deals

Daily updates on industry-specific and product-specific news, exclusive primary-based news capturing plant shutdowns/outages/closures, capacity expansions, operating rates, insights on demand-supply situation, awarding of technology licenses, new product launch and deals specifying mergers and acquisitions, strategic investments and disinvestments, to help players capitalize on market opportunity.

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Methodology

ChemAnalyst gathers information through primary research surveys conducted with various Ethylene manufacturers, spread across the domestic and international markets, suppliers and dealers/distributors to gain insights into value-chains and demand-supply scenario to assess the market situation. Thorough study of the company’s annual reports and secondary sources such as exhaustive search on credible paid databases, including our internal database is done to verify the information. All the collected information is analyzed, evaluated and presented in chronological order to depict a meaningful and clear picture of the concerned market.

Our dedicated team of industry experts comprehensively monitors and analyzes various aspects of the Global Ethylene market. The team analyzes various industrial segments, strategic viewpoints and provides an analysis of the industry’s performance in the long run. This would enable our clients in efficiently plan their future investments, mitigate risk, understand the cost dynamics and strike out a balance amidst market volatility.

Critical examination of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the global supply chains and shift in demand patterns with change in buying behavior of consumers across the globe.

Several ongoing development projects across industries are tracked, followed by the details of major projects in the development stage, which can positively or negatively influence the Global Ethylene market.

Pricing is captured through exhaustive primary interviews with domestic and international manufacturers, traders and importers and customers on monthly and yearly basis.

Finally, region-specific markets for Ethylene are analyzed and region-wise demand pattern is tracked.

About

Ethylene is a colorless, odorless, flammable and compressed gas with a faintly pleasant odor. Ethylene is the simplest olefin and is one of the most important petrochemical intermediates for the synthesis of several products across plastics, solvents, cosmetics, pneumatics, paints and packaging industries. Some of the widely used petrochemicals produced from Ethylene are polyethylene, ethylene dichloride, ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, ethylbenzene, vinyl acetate etc. There are a variety of associated proprietary technologies used for Ethylene production across the globe. Ethylene is commercially produced by the steam cracking of a wide range of hydrocarbon feedstocks which are heated to 750–950 deg Celsius. Ethylene is separated from the resulting mixture by repeated compression and distillation. In Europe and Asia, Ethylene is mainly produced from cracking naphtha, gasoil and condensates while in the US, Canada and the Middle East, the production is carried out through ethane and propane cracking. Global Ethylene capacities have been unevenly spread across the global, influenced by infrastructure and port facilities, feedstock availability, economic growth, and downstream demand patterns.

Product Specific Details

CAS No:	74-85-1
HS Code:	29012100
Grade:	Grade 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, 5, 5.5
Contract Size:	150 MT
Packaging Type:	Drum/Tank

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Incoterms: CFR, FOB, Ex-Works, Bulk Contracted, Spot

Countries Covered:

• China

• Japan

• India

• South Korea

• Singapore

• Germany

• France

• Belgium

• USA

• Brazil

• Saudi Arabia

• UAE

• South Africa

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Ethylene Price Trend and Forecast