For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Ethylene Prices in North America
- In the USA, the Ethylene Price Index rose by 16.15% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger export demand globally.
- The average Ethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 462.67/MT, highlighting volatile weekly swings.
- Ethylene Spot Price strengthened in March as shipping premiums and disruptions lifted the Ethylene Price Index.
- Ethylene Production Cost Trend increased as naphtha and crude volatility raised cracking costs at crackers.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook remained firm with polyethylene restocking and export inquiries tightening prompt availability Gulfwide.
- Ethylene Price Forecast signals short-term firmness as geopolitical risk and feedstock freeze-offs sustain elevated levels.
- Ethylene Spot Price volatility reflected record inventories in February, then tightened after export liftings and restocking.
- Ethylene Price Index movements were sensitive to cracker utilization and terminal constraints affecting export availability.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in March 2026 in North America?
- Tightening feedstock and rising naphtha costs raised marginal cracking costs, lifting offers for Gulf Coast sellers.
- Export demand strengthened with European and Latin American enquiries drawing volumes, tightening prompt domestic availability.
- War-linked insurance surcharges and rerouting raised freight costs, constraining outlets and supporting higher Gulf pricing.
Ethylene Prices in APAC
- In Japan, the Ethylene Price Index rose by 17.76% quarter-over-quarter, driven by naphtha disruptions and tightened domestic availability.
- The average Ethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 1120.33/MT, reflecting tight supply and firmer derivative demand.
- Ethylene Spot Price showed dramatic intramonth volatility, with supply shocks lifting prompt offers and squeezing merchant availability.
- Ethylene Price Forecast reflects sustained upward pressure as geopolitical feedstock risks outweigh softer downstream consumption risks.
- Ethylene Production Cost Trend shifted higher due to naphtha cost spikes and increased freight and insurance premiums.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook remains mixed: resilient export offtake supports prices despite subdued domestic industrial activity.
- Ethylene Price Index gains were amplified by thin inventories and enforced run-rate cuts at major coastal crackers.
- Export demand fluctuations and terminal inventory draws constrained merchant sales, tightening short-term availability across domestic and regional markets.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in March 2026 in APAC?
- Strait of Hormuz blockade sharply reduced naphtha inflows, increasing feedstock procurement costs and tightening cracker runs.
- Elevated freight, insurance, and logistical premiums raised replacement-cost expectations, prompting sellers to lift FOB and spot offers.
- Robust export offtake and low terminal inventories accelerated merchant absorption, reinforcing short-term upward pressure on prices.
Ethylene Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Ethylene Price Index rose by 32.54% quarter-over-quarter, driven by naphtha feedstock shocks.
- The average Ethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 909.67/MT, reflecting tighter spot availability.
- Ethylene Spot Price firmed as restricted deep-sea arrivals and limited merchant volumes tightened German availability.
- Ethylene Production Cost Trend accelerated with rising naphtha, freight, and insurance costs pressuring cracker economics.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook shows steady packaging and automotive offtake, while construction demand remains subdued seasonally.
- Ethylene Price Forecast indicates near-term firmness as capacity rationalization and import caps support higher offers.
- Ethylene Price Index climbed as Ludwigshafen maintenance, Mossmorran closure, and Rhine low water tightened balances.
- Operators held restrained cracker runs; distributor inventories were low, supported offers despite muted derivative margin pressure.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in March 2026 in Europe?
- March movements reflected naphtha cost spikes from Middle East tensions, raising cracker variable costs significantly.
- Maintenance and permanent closures reduced German and regional output, tightening prompt availability and pressuring prices.
- Logistics disruptions, Rhine low water, and freight insurance elevated landed naphtha costs, limiting supply flexibility.
Ethylene Prices in MEA
- In Saudi Arabia, the Ethylene Price Index rose by 10.38% quarter-over-quarter, driven by tighter export netbacks.
- The average Ethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 804.33/MT, reflecting firm export netbacks.
- Ethylene Price Index spikes in March followed logistics disruptions and elevated freight and insurance costs, tightening export availability.
- Rising naphtha increased Ethylene Production Cost Trend, lifting offers and supporting higher Ethylene Spot Price across export parcels.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook remains moderate as Asian converters delayed procurement ahead of holidays, constraining incremental import enquiries.
- Ethylene Price Forecast shows near-term firmness driven by geopolitical risk and constrained merchant availabilities, yet volatility remains elevated.
- High cracker operating rates in Jubail and Yanbu sustained volumes, pressuring spot liquidity despite a resilient Ethylene Price Index.
- Comfortable terminal inventories initially eased selling pressure, but export tightness and war-risk premiums later propelled the Ethylene Spot Price.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in March 2026 in MEA?
- Escalating Strait of Hormuz disruptions raised freight and insurance costs, tightening export flows and raising netbacks.
- Sharp naphtha cost increases elevated production cash costs, prompting sellers to lift offers to protect margins.
- High cracker run-rates maintained output while Asian buyers secured volumes before maintenance, sustaining firm demand for exports.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
- In USA, the Ethylene Price Index fell by 21.9% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting abundant feedstock and oversupply.
- The average Ethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 398.33/MT, influenced by seasonal cracker maintenance and export demand.
- Ethylene Spot Price volatility eased into December as restart-driven supply increases competed with seasonal restocking across converters.
- Regional Ethylene Price Forecast suggests gradual firming as tightening exports and restocking outweigh lingering domestic destocking pressures.
- Ethylene Production Cost Trend showed upward pressure from ethane and gas, compressing margins despite ample cracker throughput.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook remains mixed; converter restocking offset by weak industrial exports and restrained polyethylene offtake.
- Inventory and export demand dynamics tightened in December, lowering onsite stocks and giving sellers firmer pricing leverage.
- Major Gulf Coast cracker operational changes drove flow dynamics, with maintenance completions materially affecting the domestic Price Index.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in December 2025 in North America?
- Abundant ethane feed and restored cracker rates increased supply, counterbalancing seasonal restocking and export inquiries.
- Firmer feedstock costs modestly raised production expenses, yet higher derivative margins supported sustained cracker run rates.
- Improved export inquiries from Europe and Asia tightened available domestic volumes, reducing surplus and supporting spot prices.
APAC
- In Japan, the Ethylene Price Index fell by 15.66% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting abundant supply and weak downstream demand.
- The average Ethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 951.33/MT, reflecting subdued market conditions.
- Ethylene Spot Price remained pressured by ample supply and weak polymer demand across regional markets.
- Ethylene Price Forecast models indicate recovery potential constrained by global industrial weakness and feedstock volatility.
- Rising crude pushed the Ethylene Production Cost Trend upward, narrowing cracker margins and encouraging optimism.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook remains subdued due to weak HDPE and LLDPE offtake and inventory destocking.
- Ethylene Price Index volatility reflected export weakness, currency strength, and intermittent feedstock driven upward pressure.
- High domestic cracker utilization and thin Tokyo Bay inventories supported tighter availability, underpinning pricing attempts.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Ample domestic supply and subdued export demand left sellers discounting, driving the December price weakness.
- Higher naphtha and crude pushed production costs upward, narrowing margins and supporting modest upward price attempts.
- Currency movements, arbitrage flows and precautionary buyer behaviour ahead of holidays influenced purchasing and pricing.
Europe
- In Germany, the Ethylene Price Index fell by 18.6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting sustained downstream demand weakness.
- The average Ethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 686.33/MT, reported by market analytics.
- Ethylene Spot Price remained under pressure as Benelux imports increased and distributors continued destocking strategies.
- Ethylene Price Forecast suggests near-term downside risk given lingering demand weakness and steady cracker throughput.
- Ethylene Production Cost Trend eased with lower naphtha, but elevated energy tariffs still erode margins.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook remains muted as construction and automotive softness suppresses polymer offtake and restocking.
- Ethylene Price Index trends mirrored broader European monomer softness despite isolated cracker outages tightening supply.
- Inventories rose as imports filled pipelines, limiting export demand and prolonging downward pressure on prices.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Weak downstream demand from polyethylene, PVC, and films reduced offtake, overwhelming moderate feedstock-driven cost relief measures.
- Sustained import inflows via ARG and Benelux pipelines increased spot availability, capping domestic price recovery potential.
- High energy tariffs and EU carbon costs constrained cracker margins, encouraging run-rate trims and reducing tightness.
MEA
- In Saudi Arabia, the Ethylene Price Index fell by 9.63% quarter-over-quarter, as abundant cracker output persisted steadily.
- The average Ethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 728.67/MT, reflecting balanced regional demand.
- Ethylene Spot Price remained depressed as ample volumes and export competition kept Price Index subdued.
- Ethylene Price Forecast points to downside as sustained feedstock flows and muted Asian buying persist.
- Ethylene Production Cost Trend benefited from cheap ethane, offsetting transfer rises and preserving Saudi advantage.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook mixed; domestic polymer consumption steady while weaker Asian restocking constrained near-term exports.
- Ethylene Price Index showed stability in December as plant reliability maintained supply and limited rallies.
- Inventory builds and routine export nominations pressured offers while smooth logistics kept spot activity orderly.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in December 2025 in MEA?
- Sustained cracker run rates and abundant ethane supply created surplus, increasing competition and lowering netbacks.
- Soft Asian polymer demand and cautious restocking reduced export uptake, removing upward pressure on prices.
- Stable freight and logistics avoided landed cost increases while ethane transfer rises compressed producer margins.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In the USA, the Ethylene Price Index rose by 15.03% quarter-over-quarter, driven by export demand.
- The average Ethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 510.33/MT, reflecting export-driven feedstock dynamics.
- Ethylene Spot Price volatility reflected weekly swings while Ethylene Price Index eased from summer peaks.
- Ethylene Production Cost Trend rose as naphtha and natural gas costs increased, pressuring cracker margins.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook mixed; domestic polymer consumption steady while export weakness constrained Price Index support.
- Ethylene Price Forecast suggests range-bound near-term movement absent major outages or sudden export demand recovery.
- Inventory overhang and Gulf Coast cracker runs pressured spot offers, moderating Ethylene Price Index momentum.
- Logistics disruptions and scheduled maintenance tightened availability, supporting near-term Ethylene Spot Price despite soft exports.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in September 2025 in North America?
- High inventories and weak export demand reduced buying interest, driving September Ethylene Price Index downward.
- Feedstock cost softness eased production cost pressures, but ample cracker availability limited immediate price support.
- Normalized logistics and cautious purchasing from China and Europe diminished Ethylene Spot Price recovery prospects.
APAC
- In Japan, the Ethylene Price Index rose by 2.28% quarter-over-quarter, driven by firm export demand.
- The average Ethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 806.33/MT reflecting FOB Tokyo settlements and balanced supply.
- Ethylene Spot Price tightened as export buying firmed, reducing available cargoes and supporting Price Index.
- Ethylene Production Cost Trend reflected naphtha volatility, increasing input pressures despite steady cracker operating rates.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook remains export-driven with China and Korea procurement offsetting muted domestic polymer consumption.
- Ethylene Price Forecast indicates short-term upside risks followed by potential softening amid end-year inventory adjustments.
- Ethylene Price Index experienced oscillations reflecting feedstock swings, downstream flatness, and variable regional buying interest.
- Domestic inventories were comfortable while plant turnarounds and logistics influenced export availability and spot balance
Why did the price of Ethylene change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Stronger export demand from China and Korea tightened spot availability, lifting offers and Price Index.
- Naphtha feedstock firming increased production costs, exerting pressure on Ethylene Production Cost Trend and margins.
- Elevated inventories and softer domestic downstream buying constrained further gains despite regional export-led support in September.
Europe
- In Germany, the Ethylene Price Index fell by 0.71% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting muted demand and ample inventories.
- The average Ethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 843.33/MT, signaling modest volatility recently.
- Ethylene Spot Price softened in September while the Price Index signalled downward pressure from downstream offtake.
- Ethylene Price Forecast indicates recovery potential in autumn if naphtha costs firm and logistics remain constrained.
- Ethylene Production Cost Trend showed limited upward pressure with naphtha higher and margins supported by cracker runs.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook remains subdued with mixed polyethylene segments and selective restocking by packaging converters.
- Ethylene Price Index movements were driven by inventory cycles and logistics rather than feedstock costs.
- High inventories and weak export demand pressured spot markets, limiting upside in Ethylene Spot Price.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Ample domestic supply and high inventories reduced buying urgency, pressuring Ethylene prices in September markedly.
- Weak downstream polyethylene demand and selective converter procurement limited spot activity and depressed price momentum.
- Logistical disruptions increased precautionary restocking but failed to materially tighten availability due to steady cracker output.
MEA
- In Saudi Arabia, the Ethylene Price Index rose by 2.41% quarter-over-quarter, driven by export demand.
- The average Ethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 806.33/MT, reflecting steady FOB realizations.
- Ethylene Spot Price stayed supported by tightening as captive consumption reduced merchant volumes for export.
- Ethylene Production Cost Trend was upward with naphtha rebounds, compressing margins and underpinning FOB offers.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook points to steady export pull from Southeast Asia, offsetting softer domestic downstream procurement.
- Ethylene Price Forecast suggests modest upside risks as global feedstock volatility and outages tighten supply.
- Ethylene Price Index stability reflected balanced inventories and steady cracker run rates supporting cautious buying.
- Logistics efficiency and active export nominations kept Saudis competitive, while major producers maintained high utilization supporting supply.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in September 2025 in MEA?
- Export demand from Southeast Asia remained firm, drawing down merchant availability and lifting FOB offers.
- Naphtha price increases raised Ethylene production costs, pressuring margins and prompting producers to raise offers.
- Stable cracker operations and efficient shipping prevented shortages, keeping weekly volatility limited despite cost-side pressures.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
- While the Ethylene Price Index (FOB US Gulf) declined in April, prices likely benefited from some stronger domestic fundamental support and rising feedstock costs in May–June, with a Q2 2023 close up 15.5% at USD 468/MT.
- A mark of weak LLDPE demand and similar oversupply pressures in Q2 put downward prices in early April, however more favourable uptake on HDPE combined with sustaining naphtha prices likely supported the recovery seen mid-to-late in the quarter.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in July 2025?
- Surging inventories, sluggish downstream pull, and reduced LLDPE consumption triggered a cumulative 26.4% drop in April.
- Freight and logistics constraints, including shipping delays and export bottlenecks limited outbound flow, influencing regional supply balance.
- Domestic consumption from LDPE and HDPE sectors is expected to remain steady; export momentum may face headwinds from Asian market caution.
- Production costs rose in June due to a 6.3% jump in naphtha, squeezing producer margins despite stable manufacturing rates.
- Prices may hold firm amid upstream cost support and steady demand, but macroeconomic softness and geopolitical risks could moderate upside potential.
APAC
- Ethylene CFR Tanjung Leneng prices in Q2 2025 declined 2.7% vs Q1, settling at USD 850/MT, with fluctuating trends across the quarter.
- Southeast Asia saw steady imports from Malaysia and Singapore, while China’s overcapacity and subdued demand pressured regional pricing; India remained cautious on restocking amid weak industrial recovery.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in July 2025?
- The price fell due to softening naphtha feedstock costs, a slowdown in downstream polyethylene demand, and increased availability from regional producers offering competitive cargoes.
- Oversupply risks persisted as operating rates at regional crackers remained firm, while manufacturing demand was slow to recover post-holidays.
- Spot prices faced pressure from lower PE margins and competitive CFR offers from Middle Eastern suppliers amid weak buying interest.
- Production costs stayed relatively stable in Q2, but profitability narrowed for integrated producers due to thin downstream conversion margins.
- APAC ethylene demand in Q3 is likely to see modest improvement, driven by gradual recovery in HDPE and LLDPE consumption, potentially stabilizing prices.
Europe
- Ethylene prices Index in Europe (FD Hamburg) showed a declined by approximately 4.6% in Q2 compared to Q1, settling at USD 820/MT amid persistent oversupply and weak downstream demand.
- Sluggish activity in the automotive and packaging sectors weighed on ethylene demand; there were no major regulatory shifts, but elevated carbon compliance costs remained a background concern.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in July 2025?
- Prices fell in April due to high cracker operating rates, weak offtake from polyethylene units, and limited export opportunities, especially with subdued Asian demand.
- Germany saw the largest dip due to muted polymer consumption and sustained cracker output levels, creating localized supply pressure.
- Inventory levels rose across Northwest Europe as converters delayed purchases, reflecting bearish sentiment in downstream packaging and construction applications.
- Falling naphtha feedstock prices reduced production costs, but most producers maintained high cracker run rates, worsening the supply-demand imbalance.
- Ethylene prices are expected to remain under pressure in Q3 unless cracker rates are cut or polymer demand improves; weak derivative margins will likely limit spot price recovery.
MEA
- The Ethylene Price Index in MEA (FOB AI Jubail) showed a modest decline during Q2 2025 compared to Q1, settling at USD 780/MT, ending June at a relatively lower price level as regional supply outpaced demand.
- The price trend was largely influenced by subdued demand from packaging and polymer sectors, particularly for HDPE and LDPE, while production rates at key plants in Saudi Arabia remained stable.
Why did the price of Ethylene change in July 2025?
- Ethylene Spot Price saw a marginal drop in early July, driven by weakened export sentiments, especially to Asian markets, and continued pressure from low-priced cargoes.
- Port operations remained stable, though slightly longer delivery timelines were noted due to increased shipping volumes and routing congestion via the Suez Canal.
- Ethylene Demand Outlook for Q3 2025 remains cautious, with soft expectations from downstream polyethylene applications and limited signs of significant recovery in regional industrial activity.
- Ethylene Production Cost Trend remained broadly steady in Q2, with minor fluctuations in feedstock naphtha values; however, market margins stayed compressed due to weaker end-use pricing.
- The Ethylene Price Forecast for Q3 suggests continued bearish sentiment unless a notable uptick in Asia-bound exports or a feedstock cost surge occurs
