For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• While the Ethylene Price Index (FOB US Gulf) declined in April, prices likely benefited from some stronger domestic fundamental support and rising feedstock costs in May–June, with a Q2 2023 close up 15.5% at USD 468/MT.
• A mark of weak LLDPE demand and similar oversupply pressures in Q2 put downward prices in early April, however more favourable uptake on HDPE combined with sustaining naphtha prices likely supported the recovery seen mid-to-late in the quarter.
• Why did the price of Ethylene change in July 2025? Surging inventories, sluggish downstream pull, and reduced LLDPE consumption triggered a cumulative 26.4% drop in April.
• Freight and logistics constraints, including shipping delays and export bottlenecks limited outbound flow, influencing regional supply balance.
• Domestic consumption from LDPE and HDPE sectors is expected to remain steady; export momentum may face headwinds from Asian market caution.
• Production costs rose in June due to a 6.3% jump in naphtha, squeezing producer margins despite stable manufacturing rates.
• Prices may hold firm amid upstream cost support and steady demand, but macroeconomic softness and geopolitical risks could moderate upside potential.
APAC
• Ethylene CFR Tanjung Leneng prices in Q2 2025 declined 2.7% vs Q1, settling at USD 850/MT, with fluctuating trends across the quarter.
• Southeast Asia saw steady imports from Malaysia and Singapore, while China’s overcapacity and subdued demand pressured regional pricing; India remained cautious on restocking amid weak industrial recovery.
• Why did the price of Ethylene change in July 2025? The price fell due to softening naphtha feedstock costs, a slowdown in downstream polyethylene demand, and increased availability from regional producers offering competitive cargoes.
• Oversupply risks persisted as operating rates at regional crackers remained firm, while manufacturing demand was slow to recover post-holidays.
• Spot prices faced pressure from lower PE margins and competitive CFR offers from Middle Eastern suppliers amid weak buying interest.
• Production costs stayed relatively stable in Q2, but profitability narrowed for integrated producers due to thin downstream conversion margins.
• APAC ethylene demand in Q3 is likely to see modest improvement, driven by gradual recovery in HDPE and LLDPE consumption, potentially stabilizing prices.
Europe
• Ethylene prices Index in Europe (FD Hamburg) showed a declined by approximately 4.6% in Q2 compared to Q1, settling at USD 820/MT amid persistent oversupply and weak downstream demand.
• Sluggish activity in the automotive and packaging sectors weighed on ethylene demand; there were no major regulatory shifts, but elevated carbon compliance costs remained a background concern.
• Why did the price of Ethylene change in July 2025?" Prices fell in April due to high cracker operating rates, weak offtake from polyethylene units, and limited export opportunities, especially with subdued Asian demand.
• Germany saw the largest dip due to muted polymer consumption and sustained cracker output levels, creating localized supply pressure.
• Inventory levels rose across Northwest Europe as converters delayed purchases, reflecting bearish sentiment in downstream packaging and construction applications.
• Falling naphtha feedstock prices reduced production costs, but most producers maintained high cracker run rates, worsening the supply-demand imbalance.
• Ethylene prices are expected to remain under pressure in Q3 unless cracker rates are cut or polymer demand improves; weak derivative margins will likely limit spot price recovery.
MEA
• The Ethylene Price Index in MEA (FOB AI Jubail) showed a modest decline during Q2 2025 compared to Q1, settling at USD 780/MT, ending June at a relatively lower price level as regional supply outpaced demand.
• The price trend was largely influenced by subdued demand from packaging and polymer sectors, particularly for HDPE and LDPE, while production rates at key plants in Saudi Arabia remained stable.
• Why did the price of Ethylene change in July 2025? Ethylene Spot Price saw a marginal drop in early July, driven by weakened export sentiments, especially to Asian markets, and continued pressure from low-priced cargoes.
• Port operations remained stable, though slightly longer delivery timelines were noted due to increased shipping volumes and routing congestion via the Suez Canal.
• Ethylene Demand Outlook for Q3 2025 remains cautious, with soft expectations from downstream polyethylene applications and limited signs of significant recovery in regional industrial activity.
• Ethylene Production Cost Trend remained broadly steady in Q2, with minor fluctuations in feedstock naphtha values; however, market margins stayed compressed due to weaker end-use pricing.
• The Ethylene Price Forecast for Q3 suggests continued bearish sentiment unless a notable uptick in Asia-bound exports or a feedstock cost surge occurs
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American ethylene market began with a strong recovery supported by rising export demand, particularly from India. Production remained stable through January, while proactive stockpiling ahead of planned maintenance activities drove heightened demand. Weather-related disruptions in Texas and Louisiana, including extreme cold and snowfall, further tightened supply by causing unplanned outages. These factors created a supply-constrained environment despite relatively stable domestic consumption, pushing market sentiment into a bullish phase through the end of the month.
In February, the market experienced a shift. As stockpiling ended and production normalized, prices began to soften. Maintenance turnarounds limited output temporarily, but reduced feedstock costs and easing natural gas prices helped stabilize operations. Ethylene demand remained steady, primarily supported by downstream sectors such as packaging and automotive. However, rising ethane exports to Asia, particularly China, kept international interest strong, even as domestic consumption trends stayed flat.
By March, oversupply and weaker downstream demand, especially from polyethylene sectors, pressured the market. Producers adjusted output to manage inventories, reflecting a cautious approach amid subdued buying activity and declining feedstock costs.
APAC
In Q1 2025, Japan’s ethylene market experienced fluctuating conditions shaped by shifting supply-demand dynamics, downstream industry performance, and regional trade influences. December ended on a firm note, supported by strong demand from key sectors like automotive and packaging, as well as increased buying interest from Northeast Asia. Despite planned maintenance at major crackers, domestic production remained unaffected, maintaining supply stability.
The start of January saw a brief slowdown due to post-holiday caution and softened demand, though imports into countries like Vietnam and India helped support a stable export environment. Throughout the month, stable naphtha supply and consistent domestic production kept the market well-supplied, though rising competition and economic headwinds from regional markets limited upward momentum.
February brought renewed buying interest, especially from packaging and film sectors, contributing to a mild market recovery. Supply constraints, coupled with steady demand, led to tightening market conditions despite lower feedstock prices. In March, this trend continued, with producers adjusting output to match demand in LLDPE and LDPE sectors. Although the HDPE sector saw a minor dip, steady downstream consumption supported an overall stable outlook for the ethylene market.
Europe
In Q1 2025, ethylene prices in Europe, particularly in Germany, showed moderate shifts driven by a combination of supply constraints, energy cost fluctuations, and uneven demand patterns. During January, prices stabilized as producers faced high operational costs and limited profitability, leading to reduced production and facility closures. Although this tightened supply, increased exports from the United States helped offset shortages. Demand remained subdued, especially in the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, resulting in minimal price movement.
In February, prices rose due to higher feedstock and energy costs, along with logistical disruptions and congestion at key ports. Demand varied across sectors, with low density polyethylene gaining traction while other segments like high density and linear low-density polyethylene remained steady. The market outlook stayed cautious, reflecting limited domestic consumption.
March began with declining prices as overproduction and weak buying sentiment persisted. However, by the end of the month, stronger demand from packaging and consumer goods, combined with renewed supply chain issues, led to a price increase. The quarter ended with a cautiously optimistic sentiment amid ongoing structural adjustments.
MEA
In Q1 2025, ethylene prices in the Middle East and Africa region, particularly in Saudi Arabia, reflected a generally stable but cautious market. In January, prices fluctuated mildly due to changes in feedstock costs, including crude oil, naphtha, and ethane. While steady demand and sufficient supply helped maintain market equilibrium, external pressures such as increased U.S. ethane production and strategic feedstock pricing adjustments introduced some volatility.
Throughout February, market stability remained the key theme. Despite slight fluctuations in feedstock prices and modest growth in downstream segments like packaging and plastics, ethylene prices showed minimal variation. Steady demand across domestic and export markets, especially from Asia, helped balance any short-term cost shifts.
In March, the market continued to show resilience with only limited price movement. While demand for high-density polyethylene increased, consumption in the automotive and consumer goods sectors softened. Supply remained adequate, with production adjustments aligning with sector-specific needs. Overall, the MEA ethylene market closed the quarter in a stable position, supported by balanced supply-demand dynamics and cautious optimism in export markets.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, North America’s ethylene market experienced a two-phase trajectory, starting with a significant decline in October, driven by weak demand from downstream sectors, including polyethylene, and oversupply caused by robust production rates and subdued export activity to Asian markets.
The bearish trend persisted into early November, with stagnant prices due to balanced supply-demand dynamics and stable raw material costs. However, the latter half of the quarter marked a shift as ethylene prices began recovering in December, fueled by rising production costs and expanding export capacities targeting Europe, where energy costs and supply challenges presented opportunities for U.S. producers.
Demand recovery was modest but supported by increased reliance on U.S. ethylene imports from Europe and steady global demand for derivatives. By December, increased production costs, export optimism, and infrastructure expansion helped offset earlier losses, stabilizing the market. Overall, Q4 2024 for North America's ethylene market showcased a challenging start with significant declines, followed by a steady recovery driven by increased production costs and export opportunities.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the ethylene market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, particularly in China, exhibited an overall upward trajectory, driven by improved downstream demand, economic recovery measures, and favorable supply dynamics. The quarter started with cautious optimism as ethylene prices in October gained support from the peak consumption season and strategic economic policies aimed at boosting industrial activity. Demand from key sectors such as automotive, packaging, and textiles helped stabilize the market despite concerns over potential oversupply due to new production capacity. A gradual decline in feedstock naphtha prices further supported profitability for ethylene producers.
By November, the market experienced a notable 1.2% price increase, reflecting reduced inventory pressures and sustained demand from downstream polyethylene markets like HDPE and LDPE. Increased intra-Asian freight costs and domestic shutdowns also contributed to the price rise, as supply constraints and higher import costs impacted market dynamics. Active buying for December shipments in Northeast Asia, including China, drove robust demand, positioning the market for further price improvements.
December saw continued recovery, supported by robust buying activity for upcoming shipments and the anticipation of a strong demand outlook for early 2025. Although prices slightly declined in the final weeks of December due to subdued industrial activity, market sentiment remained positive, with expectations of recovery fueled by government stimulus measures and growing downstream demand. Overall, Q4 2024 reflected a recovering ethylene market in APAC, underpinned by strong consumption and favorable economic conditions.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European ethylene market exhibited an overall declining trend, primarily driven by subdued demand, economic challenges, and oversupply concerns. In October, prices initially stabilized due to balanced supply-demand dynamics despite bearish naphtha prices and a weakening manufacturing sector, particularly in Germany, where industrial output contracted sharply. The temporary support from downstream polyethylene sectors like HDPE was insufficient to sustain market momentum, leading to a significant 5.14% price drop during the month. Weak consumer sentiment and low purchasing activity further suppressed demand, while lower freight rates from Asia increased product availability, adding downward pressure.
The downward trend persisted in November, marked by continued oversupply, muted demand, and inventory build-ups. Discounting strategies by traders failed to stimulate procurement, and declining feedstock prices reduced production costs, lowering price quotations further. The petrochemical sector faced challenges from lackluster consumer momentum and limited recovery in downstream markets, maintaining a bearish outlook.
December brought slight relief as feedstock costs rose, driven by increased natural gas prices and a mild recovery in downstream demand. However, the market largely stagnated toward the end of the quarter, reflecting cautious sentiments among market participants.
Overall, Q4 2024 for Europe’s ethylene market was marked by significant declines due to weak demand, oversupply, and economic challenges, with only limited recovery toward the year-end.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the ethylene market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, particularly in Saudi Arabia, experienced a bifurcated price trend, characterized by a decline in the first half of the quarter and a recovery in the second half. The early part of the quarter saw ethylene prices decline due to weak domestic demand and oversupply in the downstream petrochemical sectors. A subdued performance in key downstream industries, particularly polyethylene, along with a drop in crude oil prices due to increased OPEC+ output, weighed on production costs and market sentiment. Despite stable naphtha prices, an oversupply of inventories and reduced procurement activity further exacerbated the bearish stance. Producers, aiming to clear stockpiles, reduced price quotations, which pressured margins and highlighted the fragile market environment.
In the latter half of the quarter, the market rebounded, driven by global supply chain disruptions and tightening ethylene supplies in Europe and the U.S. Elevated freight rates and export disruptions bolstered Saudi Arabia’s competitive position in global markets, spurring increased demand for its ethylene exports. Stable regional demand, coupled with rising prices in European markets and a stronger U.S. dollar, allowed Saudi producers to raise prices. Overall, Q4 2024 showcased a challenging start but ended on a positive note for the MEA ethylene market, underscored by shifting global dynamics and export-driven recovery.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 has been a period of significant price escalation for Ethylene in North America, with the USA experiencing the most notable price fluctuations. Various factors have contributed to the surge in market prices thus creating optimistic market sentiments.
Tight supply conditions, driven by low production rates and plant maintenance shutdowns, have limited Ethylene availability, leading to a bullish market sentiment. Additionally, strong demand from the downstream Polyethylene sector, particularly in the packaging industry, has further bolstered prices. The quarter-on-quarter price increase of 44% underscores the growing market dynamics.
Comparing the first and second half of the quarter, prices surged by 20%, indicating a rapid acceleration in the pricing environment. Overall, the price trend for Ethylene in the USA has been overwhelmingly positive, with an impressive 51% increase from the same quarter last year. The quarter-ending price of USD 735/MT for Ethylene Spot FOB US Gulf in the USA reflects the robust and continuously rising pricing landscape in the region.
APAC
Ethylene pricing in the APAC region during Q3 2024 has seen a consistent decrease, influenced by various factors. The market has been impacted by weak demand from downstream industries, particularly in the Polyethylene sector, leading to oversupply and subsequent price drops. Additionally, reduced operating rates in manufacturing firms and supply constraints due to plant shutdowns have further contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Japan, in particular, has experienced significant price changes, with limited availability of Ethylene and technical issues at major production facilities leading to tighter supplies and higher prices. Overall, the quarter has seen a decline of 6% compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting the ongoing bearish trend. Moreover, the quarter-on-quarter change of -2% indicates a consistent downward trajectory in pricing. The second half of the quarter showed a further decrease of 1%, culminating in the latest quarter-ending price of USD 833/MT of Ethylene FOB Tokyo in Japan. This continuous decrease highlights the negative pricing environment prevailing in the market.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, Ethylene prices in Europe experienced a significant increase, with Germany being the most affected market. This surge in prices can be attributed to a combination of factors such as tight supply situations, increased feedstock Naphtha prices, and global oil price fluctuations. Demand from downstream industries, particularly Polyethylene and Ethylene oxide, remained subdued, contributing to the upward pressure on prices. The quarter saw a notable 27% increase compared to the same period last year, with a 10% increase from the previous quarter in 2024. Price changes within the quarter also showed a 17% difference between the first and second half. Germany, in particular, witnessed substantial price fluctuations, with Ethylene FD Hamburg reaching USD 1011/MT by the end of the quarter. Creating optimistic market sentiments throughout Q3 2024. This continuous upward trend in prices indicates a positive pricing environment, driven by supply constraints, rising production costs, and limited imports, ultimately leading to a bullish market sentiment in the region.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the MEA region witnessed a decline pricing environment for Ethylene. This quarter was characterized by consistent pricing trends, influenced by various factors. The market prices were primarily impacted by subdued demand from downstream industries, particularly in the plastics and packaging sector, leading to a surplus in supply. Additionally, fluctuations in feedstock Naphtha prices and global economic conditions contributed to the stability in Ethylene prices. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, which experienced the most significant price changes, the market reflected an overall negative trend compared to the same quarter last year, with a decrease of 9%. Moreover, there was a 0.48% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant price changes, maintaining a stable trajectory. The quarter-ending price for Ethylene FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 825/MT, indicating a consistent and stable pricing environment in the region.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs):
1) What is the current price of ethylene in Northwest Europe?
As of July 2025, the price of ethylene in Northwest Europe was around USD 850/MT on FD basis, reflecting continued weak demand and ample availability.
2) Who are the top ethylene producers in the United States?
Major ethylene producers in the U.S. include Dow, ExxonMobil, LyondellBasell, Chevron Phillips Chemical, and Westlake Chemical.
3) What sectors primarily consume ethylene in the U.S. and Europe?
Ethylene is mainly used in the production of polyethylene (LDPE, HDPE, LLDPE), ethylene oxide, ethylene dichloride (for PVC), and styrene. Packaging, automotive, and construction industries are key consumers.
4) What factors influence ethylene pricing in global markets?
Ethylene prices are driven by supply-demand dynamics, cracker operating rates, feedstock (naphtha/ethane) costs, downstream polymer demand, and regional trade flows or disruptions.
