For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Furnace Oil Prices in North America
- In United States, the Furnace Oil Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, driven by declining crude oil feedstock costs.
- Crude oil feedstock costs trended downward throughout Q4 2025, easing production expenses.
- Industrial production increased 2.0% year-over-year in December 2025, indicating stronger energy demand.
- Retail sales rose 3.3% year-over-year in November 2025, indirectly stimulating Furnace Oil consumption.
- Fuel oil demand in power generation weakened in 2025 due to natural gas and solar substitution.
- The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 3.0% year-over-year in November 2025, raising input costs.
- Global oil inventories rose quickly in the second half of 2025, contributing to market supply.
- Refined product markets faced tightness in November 2025 due to significant unplanned refinery outages.
- Consumer confidence registered 89.1 in December 2025, indicating moderate optimism for spending.
Why did the price of Furnace Oil change in December 2025 in North America?
- Crude oil feedstock costs trended downward throughout Q4 2025, reducing Furnace Oil production expenses.
- Industrial production increased 2.0% year-over-year in December 2025, supporting industrial energy demand.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025, increasing operational costs for end-users.
Furnace Oil Prices in APAC
- In China, the Furnace Oil Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by declining crude oil prices.
- Furnace Oil production costs declined in the second half of 2025, as crude oil prices generally decreased.
- Demand for Furnace Oil faced headwinds in Q4 2025, with low CPI at 0.8% in December 2025.
- Industrial Production expanded by 5.2% in December 2025, providing some support to Furnace Oil demand.
- China's Manufacturing Index expanded in December 2025, indicating increased industrial activity.
- Crude oil inventories in China reached a record high in late December 2025, impacting supply dynamics.
- China's fuel oil imports increased in November 2025 from October, despite a yearly decline in 2025.
- The Furnace Oil Price Forecast suggests continued pressure from an emerging global oil surplus in Q1 2026.
- The assessed price of Furnace Oil for Q4 was at 42840 INR/MT.
Why did the price of Furnace Oil change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Crude oil prices generally declined in the second half of 2025, reducing feedstock costs.
- Weak consumer demand, with retail sales growing only 0.9% in December 2025, dampened overall industrial activity.
- Producer Price Index fell by 1.9% in December 2025, reflecting weak industrial demand and oversupply.
Furnace Oil Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Furnace Oil Price Index fell in Q4 2025, influenced by weakening global crude oil prices.
- Furnace Oil production costs declined throughout Q4 2025, as global crude oil prices weakened.
- German heating oil demand strengthened in December 2025, driven by lower prices, after robust November.
- Industrial production increased by 0.8% in October 2025, supporting demand, despite 6.2% December unemployment.
- The Manufacturing Index contracted in November and December 2025, indicating reduced industrial activity.
- Global observed oil inventories surged in October 2025 and continued to increase in November.
- German manufacturing export sales declined significantly in November and December 2025.
- Producer prices declined by 2.5% in December 2025; consumer confidence at -17.5 indicated weak demand.
- Retail sales increased by 1.1% in November; CPI rose by 1.8% in December, indicating stable consumer spending.
- Refining margins in Europe declined significantly in December 2025, after peaking in early November.
Why did the price of Furnace Oil change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Global crude oil prices weakened throughout Q4 2025, reducing feedstock costs for Furnace Oil.
- Refining margins in Europe experienced a significant decline in December 2025, impacting production profitability.
- German heating oil demand strengthened in December 2025, driven by lower prices, influencing market dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In United States, Furnace Oil Price Index rose in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand and low inventories.
- Production costs influenced by weakening crude oil and strengthening natural gas prices in Q3 2025.
- Demand for Furnace Oil was supported by increased industrial activity and growing goods imports.
- U.S. distillate inventories remained low through Q3 2025 due to significant draws.
- Industrial Production increased marginally by 0.1% year-over-year in September 2025.
- Producer Price Index rose 2.6% year-over-year in August 2025, increasing input costs.
- Consumer Price Index increased 3.0% year-over-year in September 2025, raising operational costs.
- Retail sales increased 5.42% year-over-year in September 2025, supporting industrial output.
- Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, signaling potential demand moderation.
- Strong international distillate demand led to higher U.S. exports, pressuring domestic supply.
Why did the price of Furnace Oil change in September 2025 in North America?
- Distillate inventories remained low through Q3 2025, creating upward pressure on Furnace Oil prices.
- The Producer Price Index rose 2.6% in August 2025, increasing production costs for Furnace Oil.
- Strong distillate demand, driven by industrial activity, supported Furnace Oil price increases in Q3 2025.
APAC
- In China, Furnace Oil Price Index fell in Q3 2025, influenced by global oil surplus and contracting manufacturing activity.
- Demand outlook strengthened in Q3 2025, driven by increased manufacturing production and overall oil demand growth.
- Production costs were affected by fluctuating crude oil feedstock and strengthened refining margins in September 2025.
- Industrial production increased by 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, providing bullish support for Furnace Oil demand.
- The Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025, indicating reduced industrial activity and dampening Furnace Oil consumption.
- Weak consumer demand (CPI -0.3%) and industrial demand (PPI -2.3%) in September 2025 signaled economic slowdown.
- Unemployment at 5.2% and low consumer confidence in September 2025 indicated economic weakness.
- Crude oil inventories in China increased significantly in Q3 2025, contributing to a global oil surplus.
- Retail sales grew by 3.0% year-on-year in September 2025, indirectly supporting industrial activity and energy consumption.
Why did the price of Furnace Oil change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Global oil surplus in Q3 2025 pressured Furnace Oil prices.
- Weak industrial demand (PPI -2.3% in September 2025) reduced consumption.
- Contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025 reduced factory output.
Europe
- In Germany, the Furnace Oil Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by lower producer prices and high inventories.
- Furnace Oil production costs decreased, with producer prices down 1.7% in September 2025 due to lower energy costs.
- Demand for Furnace Oil weakened as Germany's Manufacturing Index was contracting in Q3 2025.
- Industrial production in Germany declined 1.0% in September 2025, further dampening Furnace Oil demand.
- Global observed oil inventories surged to a four-year high in August 2025, indicating ample supply.
- Refining margins in Europe strengthened significantly in September 2025, reaching two-year highs.
- The consumer price index rose 2.4% year-over-year in September 2025, affecting overall input costs.
- European refinery runs, including Germany, were impacted by scheduled turnarounds in Q3 2025.
Why did the price of Furnace Oil change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Producer prices decreased 1.7% in September 2025 due to lower energy costs, reducing Furnace Oil expenses.
- Global oil inventories surged to a four-year high in August 2025, indicating ample supply.
- Germany's Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, with industrial production down 1.0%, weakening demand.
