For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Gasoline Price Index fell by 0.75% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weaker crude and demand.
• The average Gasoline price for the quarter was approximately USD 3.55/MT, reflecting lower crude pressure.
• Gasoline Spot Price softened as Brent weakness reduced feedstock costs, compressing refinery margins and prices.
• Gasoline Price Forecast anticipates modest volatility from seasonal transitions, inventory rebalances and potential crude rebounds.
• Gasoline Production Cost Trend remained subdued as winter-grade blending and refinery operations reduced input costs.
• Gasoline Demand Outlook remains muted as remote work, efficiency gains and EV adoption reduce consumption.
• Regional disparities left Gasoline Price Index elevated on West Coast while Gulf Coast remained weaker.
• Inventory draws and export flows caused tightening, affecting the Gasoline Price Index and market balance.
Why did the price of Gasoline change in September 2025 in North America?
• Falling crude benchmarks reduced input costs, with Brent weakness transmitting to lower refinery feedstock prices.
• Seasonal shift to winter-grade gasoline lowered production costs through cheaper blending components and refinery operations.
• Subdued driving demand, inventory dynamics and accelerating EV adoption reduced retail demand, pressuring prices downwards.
APAC
• In India, the Gasoline Price Index fell by 3.6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting modest demand moderation domestically.
• The average Gasoline price for the quarter was approximately USD 1.07/MT, reported by national sources.
• Gasoline Spot Price softened due to lower seasonal mobility and weaker international crude reducing parity.
• Gasoline Price Forecast indicates modest volatility influenced by festival season demand and stabilizing refinery throughput.
• Gasoline Production Cost Trend improved due to cheaper crude feedstocks and IOCL operational efficiency gains.
• Gasoline Demand Outlook remains positive year on year, with festival travel supporting near term consumption.
• Gasoline Price Index stability reflected balanced supply, restored coastal shipments, and refined product import inflows.
• Inventories remained adequate despite Nayara export disruptions, with IOCL operational improvements mitigating potential supply shocks.
Why did the price of Gasoline change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Domestic supply stabilization via approved foreign-flagged coastal shipments offset export disruptions and supported retail prices.
• Moderating global crude benchmarks reduced input costs, improving refinery margins and easing upward pressure significantly.
• Seasonal demand softened month on month despite year on year growth, tempering retail price increases.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Gasoline Price Index rose by 0.0% quarter-over-quarter, due to stable imports.
• The average Gasoline price for the quarter was approximately USD 0.62/MT, reflecting steady market benchmarks.
• Gasoline Spot Price remained resilient as imports offset refinery disruptions, supporting balanced wholesale dynamics regionally.
• Gasoline Price Forecast indicates modest oscillations from scheduled turnarounds and variable Asian market premiums ahead.
• Gasoline Production Cost Trend reflects crude recovery and logistics costs, exerting upward pressure on margins.
• Gasoline Demand Outlook remains moderate as renewable adoption and cooling demand offset transportation consumption increases.
• Price Index stability stemmed from elevated imports, staggered refinery maintenance, and export demand cushioning markets.
• Operations at Jizan and Yasref reduced throughput, while inventories and strategic buys moderated Price Index.
Why did the price of Gasoline change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Increased imports offset refinery turnarounds, preventing significant supply tightness and stabilizing local gasoline market prices.
• Crude price recovery and regional premiums increased production costs, imposing upward pressure on gasoline margins.
• Geopolitical uncertainties and tariff issues elevated cost risk, logistical resilience and sourcing preserved market balance.
Europe
• In Europe, the Gasoline Price Index displayed a mixed trend during Q3 2025, rising in July and August due to seasonal travel demand, before easing slightly in September amid inventory adjustments.
• Gasoline Spot Price firmed during peak summer demand, reflecting strong mobility trends and increased refinery run rates.
• By September, Spot Price softened modestly as seasonal travel declined and stock levels at major European hubs improved.
• Gasoline Production Cost Trend remained relatively stable, with crude oil feedstock prices easing slightly in September, offsetting earlier upward pressure.
• Gasoline Price Forecast suggests continued mixed movement into Q4 2025—demand from transport and industrial sectors may support prices, while refined product inventories could lead to temporary softening.
• Gasoline Demand Outlook remains positive overall, fueled by transport, aviation, and industrial consumption, though mild seasonal moderation was observed towards the end of the quarter.
• Adequate refinery throughput in key countries such as Germany, France, and Italy helped maintain supply balance, limiting volatility in the Price Index.
• Stable logistics costs and favorable energy prices supported producer margins, preventing abrupt price swings.
Why did the price of Gasoline change in September 2025 in Europe?
• In September 2025, the Gasoline Price Index decreased slightly, following a decline in seasonal transport demand after summer holidays.
• Improved inventory levels at major European storage hubs reduced the urgency of spot purchases, softening Spot Prices.
• The modest decrease occurred despite a stable Production Cost Trend, indicating that demand-side factors were the primary driver of price adjustments.
