For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In USA, the Gasoline Price Index fell by 5.17% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting seasonal demand decline and surplus supply.
• The average Gasoline price for the quarter was approximately USD 3.36 /Gallon on an Ex-Gulf Coast basis during Q4.
• Gasoline Spot Price softened as refinery throughput remained high, pressuring ex-rack values and regional trading flows volumes.
• Gasoline Price Forecast projects modest recovery into December and early January contingent on crude rebounds and draws.
• Gasoline Production Cost Trend declined due to winter-grade blending and softer crude feedstock, lowering refinery marginal costs.
• Gasoline Demand Outlook remains subdued from seasonal travel reductions and mild weather dampening consumption across regions nationally.
• Gasoline Price Index showed oversupply signals as inventories rose despite crude draws, pressuring spot and contract settlements.
• Gulf Coast refineries operated near capacity, supporting exports while dampening domestic Price Index upward momentum for now.
Why did the price of Gasoline change in December 2025 in North America?
• Sustained refinery throughput and inventory builds created a domestic supply surplus, weighing on December prices.
• Cheaper winter-grade components and softer crude benchmarks reduced production costs, limiting upward pressure on prices.
• Muted holiday travel and cautious consumer spending suppressed demand, preventing inventory draws from supporting prices.
APAC
• In India, the Gasoline Price Index fell by 1.24% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting balanced supply and muted pass-through.
• The average Gasoline price for the quarter was approximately USD 1.06 /Liter, reflecting tax-anchored retail stability.
• Gasoline Spot Price remained rangebound while Price Index showed limited pass-through from stable international crude.
• Gasoline Price Forecast points to downside unless crude softens or refinery runs materially cut output.
• Gasoline Production Cost Trend remained subdued as discounted Urals and Middle-East crude supported refinery margins.
• Gasoline Demand Outlook shows festive travel gains partly offset by ethanol blending reducing gasoline offtake.
• Gasoline Price Index strength reflected ample coastal output, inland stocks and uninterrupted logistics supporting distribution.
• Major coastal refineries ran at high utilisation, limiting volatility and enabling exports without tightening supplies.
Why did the price of Gasoline change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Robust refinery throughput and imports ensured supply adequacy, preventing price spikes despite festive gasoline demand.
• Stable international crude and discounted Russian barrels kept input costs muted, cushioning retail Price Index.
• Smooth coastal shipping and pipeline flows with ethanol blending balanced gasoline offtake and moderated volatility.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Gasoline Price Index rose by 0.0% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting regulated domestic pricing and balanced supply.
• The average Gasoline price for the quarter was approximately USD 0.62 /Liter, per official ex-refinery formula and stable domestic ceilings.
• Gasoline Spot Price remained anchored by abundant refinery output and muted export nominations, limiting volatility.
• Gasoline Price Forecast indicates flat movement as domestic controls and steady production constrain upside risk.
• Gasoline Production Cost Trend stayed subdued due to discounted Arab Light feedstock and refinery integration.
• Gasoline Demand Outlook remains moderate with transport growth offset by fuel-efficiency policies and hybrid uptake.
• Gasoline Price Index stability reflected balanced inventories, strong exports absorbing surplus volumes, and predictable logistics.
• High refining margins and limited turnarounds supported supply resilience, keeping wholesale racks stable through December.
Why did the price of Gasoline change in December 2025 in MEA?
• Abundant refinery throughput and elevated exports prevented domestic inventory draws, offsetting any upward pressure thereby.
• Stable Arab Light transfer pricing kept production costs low, while freight improvements eased export economics.
• Regulatory retail ceilings and quarterly price reviews anchored pump prices, limiting wholesale market adjustments materially.
Europe
• In Europe, the Gasoline Price Index showed a mixed trend in Q4 2025, with early-quarter firmness due to pre-winter travel demand, followed by mid-quarter softening as crude oil prices eased and refinery output stabilized.
• The average Gasoline price for the quarter remained moderately stable, supported by steady consumption from road transport, commercial fleets, and seasonal aviation-related demand.
• Gasoline Spot Price strengthened in October as distributors and fuel stations increased purchases ahead of the holiday season, but eased in November due to higher refinery output and improved inventories.
• The Gasoline Production Cost Trend remained largely stable, with minimal fluctuations in crude oil feedstock prices, refining margins, and logistics costs.
• Gasoline Demand Outlook remained balanced, driven by consistent road transport and commercial activity, while weaker industrial and non-essential travel tempered growth.
• The Gasoline Price Forecast indicates range-bound movement, with upside potential from seasonal travel peaks and geopolitical uncertainties, and downside limited by stable refinery operations and inventory levels.
Why did the price of Gasoline change in December 2025 in Europe?
• The Price Index rose moderately in December 2025 due to increased pre-holiday travel and distributor restocking across key Western European markets.
• Short-term tightening in supply from select refineries supported upward pressure on Spot Prices.
• With the Production Cost Trend remaining stable, the December price increase was primarily demand-driven rather than cost-push related.
• Year-end inventory replenishment by distributors further strengthened market prices toward the close of the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Gasoline Price Index fell by 0.75% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weaker crude and demand.
• The average Gasoline price for the quarter was approximately USD 3.55/MT, reflecting lower crude pressure.
• Gasoline Spot Price softened as Brent weakness reduced feedstock costs, compressing refinery margins and prices.
• Gasoline Price Forecast anticipates modest volatility from seasonal transitions, inventory rebalances and potential crude rebounds.
• Gasoline Production Cost Trend remained subdued as winter-grade blending and refinery operations reduced input costs.
• Gasoline Demand Outlook remains muted as remote work, efficiency gains and EV adoption reduce consumption.
• Regional disparities left Gasoline Price Index elevated on West Coast while Gulf Coast remained weaker.
• Inventory draws and export flows caused tightening, affecting the Gasoline Price Index and market balance.
Why did the price of Gasoline change in September 2025 in North America?
• Falling crude benchmarks reduced input costs, with Brent weakness transmitting to lower refinery feedstock prices.
• Seasonal shift to winter-grade gasoline lowered production costs through cheaper blending components and refinery operations.
• Subdued driving demand, inventory dynamics and accelerating EV adoption reduced retail demand, pressuring prices downwards.
APAC
• In India, the Gasoline Price Index fell by 3.6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting modest demand moderation domestically.
• The average Gasoline price for the quarter was approximately USD 1.07/MT, reported by national sources.
• Gasoline Spot Price softened due to lower seasonal mobility and weaker international crude reducing parity.
• Gasoline Price Forecast indicates modest volatility influenced by festival season demand and stabilizing refinery throughput.
• Gasoline Production Cost Trend improved due to cheaper crude feedstocks and IOCL operational efficiency gains.
• Gasoline Demand Outlook remains positive year on year, with festival travel supporting near term consumption.
• Gasoline Price Index stability reflected balanced supply, restored coastal shipments, and refined product import inflows.
• Inventories remained adequate despite Nayara export disruptions, with IOCL operational improvements mitigating potential supply shocks.
Why did the price of Gasoline change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Domestic supply stabilization via approved foreign-flagged coastal shipments offset export disruptions and supported retail prices.
• Moderating global crude benchmarks reduced input costs, improving refinery margins and easing upward pressure significantly.
• Seasonal demand softened month on month despite year on year growth, tempering retail price increases.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Gasoline Price Index rose by 0.0% quarter-over-quarter, due to stable imports.
• The average Gasoline price for the quarter was approximately USD 0.62/MT, reflecting steady market benchmarks.
• Gasoline Spot Price remained resilient as imports offset refinery disruptions, supporting balanced wholesale dynamics regionally.
• Gasoline Price Forecast indicates modest oscillations from scheduled turnarounds and variable Asian market premiums ahead.
• Gasoline Production Cost Trend reflects crude recovery and logistics costs, exerting upward pressure on margins.
• Gasoline Demand Outlook remains moderate as renewable adoption and cooling demand offset transportation consumption increases.
• Price Index stability stemmed from elevated imports, staggered refinery maintenance, and export demand cushioning markets.
• Operations at Jizan and Yasref reduced throughput, while inventories and strategic buys moderated Price Index.
Why did the price of Gasoline change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Increased imports offset refinery turnarounds, preventing significant supply tightness and stabilizing local gasoline market prices.
• Crude price recovery and regional premiums increased production costs, imposing upward pressure on gasoline margins.
• Geopolitical uncertainties and tariff issues elevated cost risk, logistical resilience and sourcing preserved market balance.
Europe
• In Europe, the Gasoline Price Index displayed a mixed trend during Q3 2025, rising in July and August due to seasonal travel demand, before easing slightly in September amid inventory adjustments.
• Gasoline Spot Price firmed during peak summer demand, reflecting strong mobility trends and increased refinery run rates.
• By September, Spot Price softened modestly as seasonal travel declined and stock levels at major European hubs improved.
• Gasoline Production Cost Trend remained relatively stable, with crude oil feedstock prices easing slightly in September, offsetting earlier upward pressure.
• Gasoline Price Forecast suggests continued mixed movement into Q4 2025—demand from transport and industrial sectors may support prices, while refined product inventories could lead to temporary softening.
• Gasoline Demand Outlook remains positive overall, fueled by transport, aviation, and industrial consumption, though mild seasonal moderation was observed towards the end of the quarter.
• Adequate refinery throughput in key countries such as Germany, France, and Italy helped maintain supply balance, limiting volatility in the Price Index.
• Stable logistics costs and favorable energy prices supported producer margins, preventing abrupt price swings.
Why did the price of Gasoline change in September 2025 in Europe?
• In September 2025, the Gasoline Price Index decreased slightly, following a decline in seasonal transport demand after summer holidays.
• Improved inventory levels at major European storage hubs reduced the urgency of spot purchases, softening Spot Prices.
• The modest decrease occurred despite a stable Production Cost Trend, indicating that demand-side factors were the primary driver of price adjustments.
