For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, the Geraniol Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by increased retail sales and rising freight costs.
• Geraniol production costs showed mixed trends; PPI final demand rose +0.9% in July but fell -0.1% in August 2025.
• Intermediate demand PPI increased +0.4% in August 2025, affecting input costs for industries utilizing Geraniol.
• Demand for Geraniol was supported by total retail sales increasing +0.5% in July and +0.1% in August 2025.
• Fine Fragrance growth for IFF remained strong, growing 20% year-over-year in Q3 2025, boosting Geraniol demand.
• Mineral Turpentine Oil prices, a key feedstock, were mostly flat to mildly soft in North America during Q3 2025.
• US truck freight national shipment volumes fell 2.9% in Q3 2025, while spot and contract rates increased.
• The 'de minimis' exemption elimination on August 30, 2025, introduced new tariffs (10-50%) impacting trade.
Why did the price of Geraniol change in September 2025 in North America?
• Retail sales increased +0.1% in August 2025, supporting demand for Geraniol-containing products.
• Rising freight rates in Q3 2025 increased transportation costs for Geraniol and its derivatives.
• New tariffs (10-50%) from August 30, 2025, impacted import costs for Geraniol.
APAC
• In China, the Geraniol Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining producer prices.
• Geraniol production costs faced downward pressure from a 2.3% year-on-year decline in September 2025 Producer Price Index.
• Demand for Geraniol was supported by rising retail sales of cosmetics in China during July 2025.
• The Manufacturing Index indicated contraction in September 2025, reflecting a challenging industrial environment.
• Industrial Production expanded 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, providing some underlying support for output.
• Raw material inventory decline narrowed in September 2025, suggesting slight stabilization in supply chain dynamics.
• Energy and feedstock output increased year-on-year in Q3 2025, with September showing a 0.6% rise.
• The Geraniol Price Forecast suggests continued sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators and consumer spending trends.
Why did the price of Geraniol change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Declining Producer Price Index (PPI) by 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025 exerted downward pressure on costs.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025, reflecting a general slowdown in industrial activity.
• Overall retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% year-on-year in September 2025, moderating demand.
Europe
• In Germany, the Geraniol Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining producer prices.
• Geraniol production costs faced upward pressure in Q3 2025 due to high energy and raw material expenses.
• Geraniol demand outlook remains positive, supported by growth in German fragrance and cosmetics markets.
• The Manufacturing Index indicated contracting activity in Germany during Q3 2025, reflecting reduced new orders.
• Industrial production in Germany decreased by 1.0% year-over-year in September 2025, impacting chemical sector activity.
• Retail sales in Germany increased by 0.2% year-over-year in September 2025, indicating stable consumer spending.
• Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in September 2025, while Producer Price Index declined 1.7%.
• The adjusted unemployment rate in Germany rose to 3.9% in September 2025, indicating a challenging labor market.
Why did the price of Geraniol change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Producer prices for industrial products decreased by 1.7% year-over-year in September 2025.
• High energy and raw material costs continued to challenge the German chemical industry in Q3 2025.
• The Manufacturing Index showed contracting activity in Q3 2025, signaling weaker industrial demand.
