For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Glycerine Price Index rose by 6.01% quarter-over-quarter, driven by refined supply constraints.
• The average Glycerine price for the quarter was approximately USD 2004.33/MT across refined and crude.
• Glycerine Spot Price movements tracked the Price Index as biodiesel by-product flows constrained refined availability.
• Glycerine Production Cost Trend showed moderation as lower palm oil mildly reduced upstream inflationary pressure.
• Glycerine Demand Outlook remains constructive as pharmaceuticals and personal care sustain consistent refined grade offtake.
• Glycerine Price Forecast indicates modest upside as inventories tighten and export inquiries incrementally support prices.
• Glycerine Price Index volatility remained subdued, aided by smooth logistics and absence of plant outages.
• Domestic production remained steady, inventories moderate, and export demand provided incremental support to Price Index.
Why did the price of Glycerine change in September 2025 in North America?
• Reduced biodiesel byproduct output slightly tightened refined glycerine supply, supporting upward pressure on spot pricing.
• Firm demand from personal care and pharmaceuticals sustained purchases, limiting downward movement in Price Index.
• Lower palm oil costs eased production costs, but tariff and logistic uncertainties constrained price declines.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Glycerine Price Index fell by 2.22% quarter-over-quarter, as imports improved modestly.
• The average Glycerine price for the quarter was approximately USD 1103.00/MT, reflecting cautious buyer replenishment.
• Glycerine Spot Price remained range-bound as balanced imports and cautious buying limited prompt market volatility.
• Glycerine Price Forecast indicates limited upside near-term, contingent on any sudden Asian feedstock supply disruption.
• Glycerine Production Cost Trend eased as palm oil softened, reducing upstream pressure on glycerine refiners.
• Glycerine Demand Outlook remained steady from pharmaceuticals and personal care, insufficient to absorb export volumes.
• Glycerine Price Index showed modest late-September recovery, driven by disciplined supplier offers and inventory draws.
• Regional logistics and freight premia affected landed costs, keeping Price Index sensitive to routing surcharges.
Why did the price of Glycerine change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Improved Southeast Asian export availability eased supply tightness, reducing upward pressure on landed Glycerine prices.
• Easing palm oil costs lowered production cost trends, translating softer upstream offers and reduced margins.
• Freight and Red Sea security premia constrained affordability, while muted downstream procurement limited demand absorption.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Glycerine Price Index rose by 11.22% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting constrained refined availability and robust downstream demand.
• The average Glycerine price for the quarter was approximately USD 1077.00/MT.
• Glycerine Spot Price remained volatile as logistics bottlenecks and container shortages tightened short-term availability.
• Glycerine Price Forecast indicates range-bound to modestly firmer levels driven by steady FMCG and pharmaceutical offtake.
• Glycerine Production Cost Trend moved higher as elevated palm oil feedstock costs pressured crude glycerine economics.
• Glycerine Demand Outlook remains strong for personal care, food and oral-care sectors supporting sustained procurement.
• Glycerine Price Index movements were amplified by biodiesel mandates diverting palm oil and altering upstream supply balances.
• Inventories tightened domestically while export competition and tariff risks influenced seller pricing strategies and trade flows.
Why did the price of Glycerine change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Elevated palm oil costs and biodiesel mandates reduced crude glycerine output and raised production cost pressures.
• Resilient domestic FMCG and pharmaceutical demand sustained offtake, absorbing available refined volumes and limiting buyer flexibility.
• Port congestion, container shortages and minor refinery turnarounds constrained shipments, amplifying short-term scarcity and price support.
Europe
• In Spain, the Glycerine Price Index rose by 4.34% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting firmer downstream demand patterns.
• The average Glycerine price for the quarter was approximately USD 464.33/MT, reported across FOB Algeciras observations.
• Glycerine Spot Price showed weekly volatility, yet the Price Index sustained moderate upward momentum overall.
• Glycerine Price Forecast signals modest upside as replenishment buying and seasonal personal care demand strengthened.
• Glycerine Production Cost Trend eased as lower palm oil, fatty alcohol netbacks reduced production pressure.
• Glycerine Demand Outlook remains positive for pharmaceuticals and personal care, offsetting softer biodiesel co-product volumes.
• Inventory builds and import competitiveness pressured offers, while export enquiries and tourism-driven retail demand supported buying.
• Major producer run-rates stayed steady; short shutdowns caused margin pressure, keeping the Price Index contained.
Why did the price of Glycerine change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Higher pharmaceutical and personal-care offtake tightened merchant availability, lifting spot bids and supporting September gains.
• Lower palm oil and fatty alcohol values eased production costs, narrowing the crude glycerine price floor modestly.
• Unobstructed port logistics and steady imports maintained supply, enabling opportunistic buying and pressuring offers late September.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• Glycerine Spot Price showed an overall upward trajectory in Q2 2025, with crude glycerine averaging a 1.86% month-on-month rise and refined USP 99.5% averaging a 1.69% monthly increase; June saw spot prices at USD 446/MT for crude (up 1.13% from May) and USD 1,938/MT for refined (up 3.3% from May).
• Glycerine Price Forecasts were moderately bullish, underpinned by strong end-use demand in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and food industries, though momentum for further sharp increases started to ease by late June.
• Refined glycerine maintained tighter supply conditions than crude grades throughout Q2, reflected in steadier price increments, as operational bottlenecks and reduced biodiesel output limited producer inventories.
• Crude glycerine saw more volatility, with mid-June marking a slight correction as improved production and higher inventories led to spot price stabilization, before rebounding again in early July.
• The overall Glycerine Production Cost Trend in North America moved higher during the quarter, supported by persistent feedstock cost inflation, especially from imported palm oil, though the pace of increase moderated toward quarter-end.
• June 2025 was marked by diverging trends: refined glycerine climbed steadily and closed the month strong, while crude prices corrected downward mid-month before stabilizing, signaling the potential for short-term normalization.
• The Glycerine Demand Outlook remained consistently robust, especially for refined grades, with downstream applications in the pharma, personal care, and food sectors maintaining strong procurement momentum and supporting firm spot prices.
• Buyers shifted purchasing strategies toward spot and short-term contracts to manage unpredictable costs and reduce inventory overhang risk, particularly as mid-year market sentiment suggested consolidation.
• Imports from Southeast Asia continued at stable levels, mitigating the supply impact from domestic operational constraints, while logistical and feedstock costs stayed elevated.
• Market participants indicated cautious optimism for Q3, expecting potential narrowing of price spreads between crude and refined glycerine, with a close watch on upcoming summer biodiesel run rates and downstream demand signals.
APAC
• Q2 2025 showcased mixed-to-upward trends for Glycerine Spot Price in Indonesia; quarterly average price fluctuations were 1.23% monthly for crude (peaking at USD 477/MT in May before easing to USD 475/MT in June) and 3.55% for refined.
• Glycerine Price Forecast remained optimistic for refined grades amid persistently strong local consumption in pharma, cosmetics, and food, while crude glycerine's outlook softened by June as upstream supply improved.
• Domestic palm oil feedstock costs escalated in April, elevating the Glycerine Production Cost Trend and driving both crude and refined spot prices upward, though this pressure eased in June with palm oil stabilization.
• Weak export momentum due to high inventories in importing countries limited upside for Indonesian crude glycerine spot price, especially from late May onward.
• June 2025 saw refined glycerine spot price rise to USD 990, while crude slipped 0.42% month-on-month as supply normalization and port congestion impacts subsided.
• Persistent logistical challenges, including intermittent congestion at Tanjung Priok Port, kept costs higher for exporters, particularly for refined products destined for South Asian and Middle Eastern buyers.
• Rupiah currency volatility against the USD added another layer of unpredictability to production and export costs, though a late June currency rebound softened some import pressure.
• Refined glycerine demand outlook remained resilient, absorbing higher input costs as buyers in pharmaceuticals and cosmetics prioritized continuity of supply over price sensitivity.
• Inventory management strategies among Indonesian refiners grew more defensive, emphasizing prompt deliveries over speculative storage as uncertainty over feedstock and currency trends weighed on planning.
• Market sentiment for Q3 leaned neutral for crude glycerine but stayed cautiously bullish for refined grades, with close attention on Chinese and Indian buyer activity and potential post-summer demand resurgence.
Europe
• Glycerine Spot Price in Germany showed an initially upward quarterly trend before stabilizing by late June; average Q2 price movements were 1.89% monthly for crude (flat at USD 484 in June) and 2.62% monthly for tallow-based refined.
• The Glycerine Price Forecast in early Q2 was bullish, driven by cost-side supply pressures on palm and tallow feedstocks, but softened by late June amid improved port logistics and higher inventories.
• June 2025 became the inflection point: after peaking mid-month, prices for both refined USP 99.5% (USD 1,470, up 1.59% from May) and tallow-refined grades began to ease as market sentiment corrected.
• The Glycerine Production Cost Trend was persistently high throughout Q2, steered by costly imported raw materials and limited feedstock from Southeast Asia, as well as elevated European logistics and energy rates.
• Domestic and import supply both improved by mid-June, alleviating earlier tightness that had supported price strength up to the end of May.
• Pharma, personal care, and food sector demand stayed consistently strong, anchoring the Glycerine Demand Outlook, but buyers exercised more caution as price resistance set in after successive increases.
• The Euro’s appreciation in June reduced landed costs for imported refined glycerine from Asia and helped soften late-quarter spot prices.
• No major production shocks were recorded, with steady refinery activity, but lean inventories and a lack of significant surplus kept the market from a sharper correction.
• Buyers shifted to short-term buying as Q2 ended, anticipating further normalization and hesitant to commit to longer-term contracts until the Q3 supply-demand balance clarifies.
• Looking to Q3, the market is closely monitoring Southeast Asia’s export pace and regional biofuel trends, with an expectation for more stable to slightly softer prices if current inventory and logistics trends persist.
MEA
• Glycerine Spot Price in Saudi Arabia followed a volatile yet overall stable Q2, averaging 0.41% monthly growth; prices in June edged to USD 1,134/MT (up 0.35% from May), before a notable correction in early July.
• The Glycerine Price Forecast for Q2 began cautiously optimistic with minor April increases, rose steadily through May as demand built, then called for stabilization to a potential soft patch after June’s easing.
• April volatility stemmed from shifting supply-demand signals and currency-driven cost adjustments, with oversupply and a strong Riyal initially lowering import costs and prices.
• The Glycerine Production Cost Trend was largely steady, supported by stable local production and strong global supply, particularly from biodiesel-linked U.S. exports, keeping margin pressures moderate.
• Downstream demand from food, pharmaceuticals, and personal care remained the engine for steady procurement, lending relative resilience to spot prices even as June saw some easing.
• June 2025 started strong with high import costs from Asia-Pacific and tight supply, but improved output and resuming Southeast Asian exports softened prices by late month.
• Two consecutive weekly spot price drops in late June reflected a more cautious buying stance among key market participants sensitive to easing supply tightness and currency shifts.
• Inventory restocking was evident during May, supporting a brief period of firming prices before buyers drew down stock amid uncertainty over future cost trends.
• Currency volatility, particularly with the Saudi Riyal, influenced monthly import cost dynamics, at times cushioning price impact for domestic buyers.
• The Q3 outlook is for a stable-to-soft scenario, with Glycerine Demand Outlook dependent on sustained downstream procurement, global trade flows, and the interplay between evolving feedstock trends and macroeconomic variables.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. glycerine market witnessed a consistent upward price trend, driven by a combination of tightening supply conditions, firm demand, and persistent logistical challenges. January marked the beginning of the rally, with prices steadily increasing due to post-holiday industrial recovery, robust export demand, and reduced import availability following late-2024 disruptions. The market remained sensitive to geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts, particularly concerning Chinese imports, prompting cautious procurement strategies among buyers.
Despite these uncertainties, demand from key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and food additives remained strong, supporting price stability and growth. In February, the market experienced short-term volatility. Prices dipped early in the month due to softened demand and increased availability from China, but quickly recovered as global palm oil prices rebounded, raising production costs. Stable demand and tight inventories, coupled with revived export activity post-Lunar New Year, contributed to the overall price uptick by month-end.
March further strengthened this trend, as labor shortages in Southeast Asia reduced raw material availability and port congestion in the U.S. delayed shipments, amplifying supply constraints. Continued strong demand, both domestic and international, along with rising production and freight costs, added to the market’s bullish sentiment. Overall, Q1 2025 closed with a strong upward trajectory for glycerine prices in the U.S., and the outlook remains firm amid sustained demand and ongoing supply chain pressures likely to persist into Q2.
Asia Pacific
The Indonesian Glycerine market experienced a notable upward trajectory in Q1 2025, with prices steadily increasing from January to March due to a combination of supply-side constraints and sustained demand. January started with a modest dip in prices, driven by oversupply and sluggish demand from downstream sectors. However, by mid-January, the market found stability as supply and demand reached a more balanced state. This recovery was supported by improving inventory management and a rise in industrial activity, reflected in Indonesia's Manufacturing PMI. By the end of January, the market sentiment became more optimistic.
In February, the Glycerine market saw a more pronounced upward trend, primarily driven by rising palm oil prices. Disruptions in palm oil production due to adverse weather conditions, along with the implementation of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel mandate, tightened supply. Additionally, export tax revisions further strained domestic availability, supporting higher Glycerine prices. Demand remained strong, especially as industries restocked ahead of Ramadan.
By March, the upward trend continued, with prices rising steadily due to ongoing supply constraints, particularly related to biodiesel production. Strong demand from key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and food processing reinforced the market’s bullish tone. The tight supply-demand balance, driven by biodiesel fluctuations and steady procurement, supported consistent price increases. Overall, Q1 2025 saw Glycerine prices in Indonesia rise, with ongoing supply challenges and stable demand contributing to the positive market outlook.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the German Glycerine market experienced notable fluctuations, marked by an initial upward trend in January, followed by a dip in February and a mixed recovery in March. January saw steady price increases, driven by strong demand from key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, personal care, and biofuels, along with logistical challenges and tight supply conditions. This allowed producers to maintain pricing power, despite weak industrial activity.
However, February brought a shift as oversupply and weak seasonal demand, particularly from personal care, food, and pharmaceuticals, led to downward pressure on prices. The market was further impacted by increased glycerine imports from Asia, particularly Malaysia and Indonesia, resulting in a more subdued pricing environment. In March, glycerine prices showed mixed movements. Early March saw a slight decline due to oversupplied biodiesel production, but as the month progressed, prices stabilized. By mid-to-late March, rising demand from personal care and pharmaceutical sectors, combined with refining capacity constraints, caused prices to increase, particularly for refined glycerine grades. The appreciation of the euro and fluctuations in palm oil prices also played a role in shaping the market.
Overall, while the German Glycerine market faced volatility during Q1 2025, it remained relatively firm by March, supported by strong demand across key industries and ongoing supply challenges. The outlook for the near future remains stable, though occasional fluctuations are likely due to supply-demand dynamics.
MEA
The Glycerine market in Saudi Arabia experienced notable price fluctuations in Q1 2025, with strong demand and supply chain challenges driving price movements. In January, prices steadily rose, primarily due to tight domestic inventories and reliance on imports, especially from China. The rising costs of palm oil, used in biodiesel production, and ongoing global trade uncertainties further fueled price increases. This upward trend continued into February, where prices surged, particularly in anticipation of Ramadan. Strong demand from key sectors like pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and food processing, combined with limited supply, exacerbated price pressures.
Despite favorable exchange rates helping mitigate some challenges, reduced exports from China added to the tightening of supply. March saw a mixed price pattern. Early in the month, prices slightly increased due to a stable supply-demand balance. However, by the third week, a global oversupply, particularly from Indonesia and Malaysia, alleviated some pressure, causing prices to dip temporarily.
Despite this, consistent demand across sectors, especially food and pharmaceuticals, prevented a significant drop. By the month’s end, prices stabilized again, with only minor increases observed. Looking forward, the Glycerine market in Saudi Arabia is expected to remain relatively steady, with minor fluctuations driven by external factors like global supply conditions and palm oil prices. Overall, the market remains supported by strong demand, but any substantial price changes will depend on shifts in supply dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant price hikes in the U.S. Glycerine market, primarily driven by supply shortages and rising demand from both domestic and export sectors. Early in October, prices surged due to strong demand, exacerbated by low inventory levels and disruptions from China’s Golden Week holiday. U.S. suppliers faced heightened pressure from increased raw material costs, particularly palm oil, and rising shipping rates, which further strained supply chains. As winter approached, demand from industries such as pharmaceuticals, personal care, and biofuels intensified, compounding the challenges.
By November, price increases continued as production slowdowns and maintenance shutdowns limited glycerine output, while global supply chain disruptions, including labor shortages and fertilizer challenges linked to the Ukraine conflict, further impacted palm oil availability. These factors contributed to ongoing price pressures, with glycerine prices rising steadily throughout the month.
By December, supply constraints and heightened seasonal demand drove prices even higher. U.S. importers faced intensified competition and limited stock availability, resulting in a seller-driven market. With continued challenges in logistics and palm oil supply, the U.S. glycerine market remained volatile, with prices continuing to climb as demand stayed robust, particularly from key downstream industries.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 of 2024, Indonesia's Glycerine market experienced a persistent upward price trend, driven by a combination of domestic and global factors. The market saw price increases throughout October and November, fueled by high demand both locally and internationally. Indonesia’s competitive production costs and advantageous geopolitical conditions allowed it to maintain strong export positions.
The rising cost of crude oil, exacerbated by tensions in the Middle East, further strained global supply chains, benefiting Indonesian exporters. Palm oil prices also saw upward pressure due to tight global supplies, higher production costs, and increased demand from both the food industry and biofuel initiatives like Indonesia’s B40 program. In addition, global maintenance shutdowns in key production facilities and rising shipping costs due to vessel shortages added to the price pressures.
Despite weaker domestic demand in certain regions, robust international demand kept prices elevated. A key driver in the market was the growing domestic biofuel demand in Indonesia, particularly for biodiesel, which placed further strain on the supply chain. By November, Glycerine prices continued to rise steadily, driven by strong demand, rising crude oil prices, and persistent supply chain challenges.
Europe
In Q4 2024, Germany's Glycerine market experienced significant volatility, marked by rising prices, supply chain disruptions, and robust demand. The overall trend was upward for Crude and Tallow Glycerine, driven by increased demand, rising palm oil costs, and global logistical challenges, including disruptions from China’s Golden Week and shipping shortages. These factors strained inventory levels and heightened supply pressures, particularly in the personal care and pharmaceuticals sectors as winter demand surged.
Meanwhile, Refined Glycerine prices fluctuated due to subdued demand, with inventory surpluses causing price declines in Tallow-based Glycerine. By November, German suppliers faced narrowing profit margins amid rising production costs, influenced by volatile crude oil prices and escalating input costs. The strong Euro helped buffer some import costs but hurt export competitiveness. Export volumes were redirected to meet domestic demand, intensifying market constraints.
The overall Q4 market trend indicated a seller’s market, with expectations of sustained price increases for Crude and Tallow Glycerine, while Refined Glycerine might experience price stabilization. Global factors like raw material costs and logistical challenges remained pivotal in shaping the market.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the Glycerine market in Saudi Arabia followed a clear upward trajectory, driven by a combination of strong demand, supply chain disruptions, and rising raw material costs. Price increases were fueled by constrained supply from Asia, particularly after China’s Golden Week, which led to longer delivery times and heightened purchasing activity from buyers, notably in Germany.
Additionally, the market faced rising palm oil prices, a key raw material for glycerine production, which were further compounded by global supply shortages. These challenges were exacerbated by limited shipping availability, inflationary pressures, and disruptions in production facilities. Throughout the quarter, demand from key sectors, particularly biofuels and oleochemicals, remained robust, sustaining upward pressure on glycerine prices. Despite some improvements in inventory management, supply shortages persisted, with global supply constraints and fluctuations in currency rates compounding the issue.
By the end of December, glycerine prices had risen steadily to $980/MT CFR Jeddah. The market is expected to remain tight heading into 2025 due to ongoing production difficulties, global supply chain challenges, and elevated raw material prices, keeping glycerine prices at elevated levels.
