For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• Glycerine Spot Price showed an overall upward trajectory in Q2 2025, with crude glycerine averaging a 1.86% month-on-month rise and refined USP 99.5% averaging a 1.69% monthly increase; June saw spot prices at USD 446/MT for crude (up 1.13% from May) and USD 1,938/MT for refined (up 3.3% from May).
• Glycerine Price Forecasts were moderately bullish, underpinned by strong end-use demand in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and food industries, though momentum for further sharp increases started to ease by late June.
• Refined glycerine maintained tighter supply conditions than crude grades throughout Q2, reflected in steadier price increments, as operational bottlenecks and reduced biodiesel output limited producer inventories.
• Crude glycerine saw more volatility, with mid-June marking a slight correction as improved production and higher inventories led to spot price stabilization, before rebounding again in early July.
• The overall Glycerine Production Cost Trend in North America moved higher during the quarter, supported by persistent feedstock cost inflation, especially from imported palm oil, though the pace of increase moderated toward quarter-end.
• June 2025 was marked by diverging trends: refined glycerine climbed steadily and closed the month strong, while crude prices corrected downward mid-month before stabilizing, signaling the potential for short-term normalization.
• The Glycerine Demand Outlook remained consistently robust, especially for refined grades, with downstream applications in the pharma, personal care, and food sectors maintaining strong procurement momentum and supporting firm spot prices.
• Buyers shifted purchasing strategies toward spot and short-term contracts to manage unpredictable costs and reduce inventory overhang risk, particularly as mid-year market sentiment suggested consolidation.
• Imports from Southeast Asia continued at stable levels, mitigating the supply impact from domestic operational constraints, while logistical and feedstock costs stayed elevated.
• Market participants indicated cautious optimism for Q3, expecting potential narrowing of price spreads between crude and refined glycerine, with a close watch on upcoming summer biodiesel run rates and downstream demand signals.
APAC
• Q2 2025 showcased mixed-to-upward trends for Glycerine Spot Price in Indonesia; quarterly average price fluctuations were 1.23% monthly for crude (peaking at USD 477/MT in May before easing to USD 475/MT in June) and 3.55% for refined.
• Glycerine Price Forecast remained optimistic for refined grades amid persistently strong local consumption in pharma, cosmetics, and food, while crude glycerine's outlook softened by June as upstream supply improved.
• Domestic palm oil feedstock costs escalated in April, elevating the Glycerine Production Cost Trend and driving both crude and refined spot prices upward, though this pressure eased in June with palm oil stabilization.
• Weak export momentum due to high inventories in importing countries limited upside for Indonesian crude glycerine spot price, especially from late May onward.
• June 2025 saw refined glycerine spot price rise to USD 990, while crude slipped 0.42% month-on-month as supply normalization and port congestion impacts subsided.
• Persistent logistical challenges, including intermittent congestion at Tanjung Priok Port, kept costs higher for exporters, particularly for refined products destined for South Asian and Middle Eastern buyers.
• Rupiah currency volatility against the USD added another layer of unpredictability to production and export costs, though a late June currency rebound softened some import pressure.
• Refined glycerine demand outlook remained resilient, absorbing higher input costs as buyers in pharmaceuticals and cosmetics prioritized continuity of supply over price sensitivity.
• Inventory management strategies among Indonesian refiners grew more defensive, emphasizing prompt deliveries over speculative storage as uncertainty over feedstock and currency trends weighed on planning.
• Market sentiment for Q3 leaned neutral for crude glycerine but stayed cautiously bullish for refined grades, with close attention on Chinese and Indian buyer activity and potential post-summer demand resurgence.
Europe
• Glycerine Spot Price in Germany showed an initially upward quarterly trend before stabilizing by late June; average Q2 price movements were 1.89% monthly for crude (flat at USD 484 in June) and 2.62% monthly for tallow-based refined.
• The Glycerine Price Forecast in early Q2 was bullish, driven by cost-side supply pressures on palm and tallow feedstocks, but softened by late June amid improved port logistics and higher inventories.
• June 2025 became the inflection point: after peaking mid-month, prices for both refined USP 99.5% (USD 1,470, up 1.59% from May) and tallow-refined grades began to ease as market sentiment corrected.
• The Glycerine Production Cost Trend was persistently high throughout Q2, steered by costly imported raw materials and limited feedstock from Southeast Asia, as well as elevated European logistics and energy rates.
• Domestic and import supply both improved by mid-June, alleviating earlier tightness that had supported price strength up to the end of May.
• Pharma, personal care, and food sector demand stayed consistently strong, anchoring the Glycerine Demand Outlook, but buyers exercised more caution as price resistance set in after successive increases.
• The Euro’s appreciation in June reduced landed costs for imported refined glycerine from Asia and helped soften late-quarter spot prices.
• No major production shocks were recorded, with steady refinery activity, but lean inventories and a lack of significant surplus kept the market from a sharper correction.
• Buyers shifted to short-term buying as Q2 ended, anticipating further normalization and hesitant to commit to longer-term contracts until the Q3 supply-demand balance clarifies.
• Looking to Q3, the market is closely monitoring Southeast Asia’s export pace and regional biofuel trends, with an expectation for more stable to slightly softer prices if current inventory and logistics trends persist.
MEA
• Glycerine Spot Price in Saudi Arabia followed a volatile yet overall stable Q2, averaging 0.41% monthly growth; prices in June edged to USD 1,134/MT (up 0.35% from May), before a notable correction in early July.
• The Glycerine Price Forecast for Q2 began cautiously optimistic with minor April increases, rose steadily through May as demand built, then called for stabilization to a potential soft patch after June’s easing.
• April volatility stemmed from shifting supply-demand signals and currency-driven cost adjustments, with oversupply and a strong Riyal initially lowering import costs and prices.
• The Glycerine Production Cost Trend was largely steady, supported by stable local production and strong global supply, particularly from biodiesel-linked U.S. exports, keeping margin pressures moderate.
• Downstream demand from food, pharmaceuticals, and personal care remained the engine for steady procurement, lending relative resilience to spot prices even as June saw some easing.
• June 2025 started strong with high import costs from Asia-Pacific and tight supply, but improved output and resuming Southeast Asian exports softened prices by late month.
• Two consecutive weekly spot price drops in late June reflected a more cautious buying stance among key market participants sensitive to easing supply tightness and currency shifts.
• Inventory restocking was evident during May, supporting a brief period of firming prices before buyers drew down stock amid uncertainty over future cost trends.
• Currency volatility, particularly with the Saudi Riyal, influenced monthly import cost dynamics, at times cushioning price impact for domestic buyers.
• The Q3 outlook is for a stable-to-soft scenario, with Glycerine Demand Outlook dependent on sustained downstream procurement, global trade flows, and the interplay between evolving feedstock trends and macroeconomic variables.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. glycerine market witnessed a consistent upward price trend, driven by a combination of tightening supply conditions, firm demand, and persistent logistical challenges. January marked the beginning of the rally, with prices steadily increasing due to post-holiday industrial recovery, robust export demand, and reduced import availability following late-2024 disruptions. The market remained sensitive to geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts, particularly concerning Chinese imports, prompting cautious procurement strategies among buyers.
Despite these uncertainties, demand from key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and food additives remained strong, supporting price stability and growth. In February, the market experienced short-term volatility. Prices dipped early in the month due to softened demand and increased availability from China, but quickly recovered as global palm oil prices rebounded, raising production costs. Stable demand and tight inventories, coupled with revived export activity post-Lunar New Year, contributed to the overall price uptick by month-end.
March further strengthened this trend, as labor shortages in Southeast Asia reduced raw material availability and port congestion in the U.S. delayed shipments, amplifying supply constraints. Continued strong demand, both domestic and international, along with rising production and freight costs, added to the market’s bullish sentiment. Overall, Q1 2025 closed with a strong upward trajectory for glycerine prices in the U.S., and the outlook remains firm amid sustained demand and ongoing supply chain pressures likely to persist into Q2.
Asia Pacific
The Indonesian Glycerine market experienced a notable upward trajectory in Q1 2025, with prices steadily increasing from January to March due to a combination of supply-side constraints and sustained demand. January started with a modest dip in prices, driven by oversupply and sluggish demand from downstream sectors. However, by mid-January, the market found stability as supply and demand reached a more balanced state. This recovery was supported by improving inventory management and a rise in industrial activity, reflected in Indonesia's Manufacturing PMI. By the end of January, the market sentiment became more optimistic.
In February, the Glycerine market saw a more pronounced upward trend, primarily driven by rising palm oil prices. Disruptions in palm oil production due to adverse weather conditions, along with the implementation of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel mandate, tightened supply. Additionally, export tax revisions further strained domestic availability, supporting higher Glycerine prices. Demand remained strong, especially as industries restocked ahead of Ramadan.
By March, the upward trend continued, with prices rising steadily due to ongoing supply constraints, particularly related to biodiesel production. Strong demand from key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and food processing reinforced the market’s bullish tone. The tight supply-demand balance, driven by biodiesel fluctuations and steady procurement, supported consistent price increases. Overall, Q1 2025 saw Glycerine prices in Indonesia rise, with ongoing supply challenges and stable demand contributing to the positive market outlook.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the German Glycerine market experienced notable fluctuations, marked by an initial upward trend in January, followed by a dip in February and a mixed recovery in March. January saw steady price increases, driven by strong demand from key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, personal care, and biofuels, along with logistical challenges and tight supply conditions. This allowed producers to maintain pricing power, despite weak industrial activity.
However, February brought a shift as oversupply and weak seasonal demand, particularly from personal care, food, and pharmaceuticals, led to downward pressure on prices. The market was further impacted by increased glycerine imports from Asia, particularly Malaysia and Indonesia, resulting in a more subdued pricing environment. In March, glycerine prices showed mixed movements. Early March saw a slight decline due to oversupplied biodiesel production, but as the month progressed, prices stabilized. By mid-to-late March, rising demand from personal care and pharmaceutical sectors, combined with refining capacity constraints, caused prices to increase, particularly for refined glycerine grades. The appreciation of the euro and fluctuations in palm oil prices also played a role in shaping the market.
Overall, while the German Glycerine market faced volatility during Q1 2025, it remained relatively firm by March, supported by strong demand across key industries and ongoing supply challenges. The outlook for the near future remains stable, though occasional fluctuations are likely due to supply-demand dynamics.
MEA
The Glycerine market in Saudi Arabia experienced notable price fluctuations in Q1 2025, with strong demand and supply chain challenges driving price movements. In January, prices steadily rose, primarily due to tight domestic inventories and reliance on imports, especially from China. The rising costs of palm oil, used in biodiesel production, and ongoing global trade uncertainties further fueled price increases. This upward trend continued into February, where prices surged, particularly in anticipation of Ramadan. Strong demand from key sectors like pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and food processing, combined with limited supply, exacerbated price pressures.
Despite favorable exchange rates helping mitigate some challenges, reduced exports from China added to the tightening of supply. March saw a mixed price pattern. Early in the month, prices slightly increased due to a stable supply-demand balance. However, by the third week, a global oversupply, particularly from Indonesia and Malaysia, alleviated some pressure, causing prices to dip temporarily.
Despite this, consistent demand across sectors, especially food and pharmaceuticals, prevented a significant drop. By the month’s end, prices stabilized again, with only minor increases observed. Looking forward, the Glycerine market in Saudi Arabia is expected to remain relatively steady, with minor fluctuations driven by external factors like global supply conditions and palm oil prices. Overall, the market remains supported by strong demand, but any substantial price changes will depend on shifts in supply dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant price hikes in the U.S. Glycerine market, primarily driven by supply shortages and rising demand from both domestic and export sectors. Early in October, prices surged due to strong demand, exacerbated by low inventory levels and disruptions from China’s Golden Week holiday. U.S. suppliers faced heightened pressure from increased raw material costs, particularly palm oil, and rising shipping rates, which further strained supply chains. As winter approached, demand from industries such as pharmaceuticals, personal care, and biofuels intensified, compounding the challenges.
By November, price increases continued as production slowdowns and maintenance shutdowns limited glycerine output, while global supply chain disruptions, including labor shortages and fertilizer challenges linked to the Ukraine conflict, further impacted palm oil availability. These factors contributed to ongoing price pressures, with glycerine prices rising steadily throughout the month.
By December, supply constraints and heightened seasonal demand drove prices even higher. U.S. importers faced intensified competition and limited stock availability, resulting in a seller-driven market. With continued challenges in logistics and palm oil supply, the U.S. glycerine market remained volatile, with prices continuing to climb as demand stayed robust, particularly from key downstream industries.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 of 2024, Indonesia's Glycerine market experienced a persistent upward price trend, driven by a combination of domestic and global factors. The market saw price increases throughout October and November, fueled by high demand both locally and internationally. Indonesia’s competitive production costs and advantageous geopolitical conditions allowed it to maintain strong export positions.
The rising cost of crude oil, exacerbated by tensions in the Middle East, further strained global supply chains, benefiting Indonesian exporters. Palm oil prices also saw upward pressure due to tight global supplies, higher production costs, and increased demand from both the food industry and biofuel initiatives like Indonesia’s B40 program. In addition, global maintenance shutdowns in key production facilities and rising shipping costs due to vessel shortages added to the price pressures.
Despite weaker domestic demand in certain regions, robust international demand kept prices elevated. A key driver in the market was the growing domestic biofuel demand in Indonesia, particularly for biodiesel, which placed further strain on the supply chain. By November, Glycerine prices continued to rise steadily, driven by strong demand, rising crude oil prices, and persistent supply chain challenges.
Europe
In Q4 2024, Germany's Glycerine market experienced significant volatility, marked by rising prices, supply chain disruptions, and robust demand. The overall trend was upward for Crude and Tallow Glycerine, driven by increased demand, rising palm oil costs, and global logistical challenges, including disruptions from China’s Golden Week and shipping shortages. These factors strained inventory levels and heightened supply pressures, particularly in the personal care and pharmaceuticals sectors as winter demand surged.
Meanwhile, Refined Glycerine prices fluctuated due to subdued demand, with inventory surpluses causing price declines in Tallow-based Glycerine. By November, German suppliers faced narrowing profit margins amid rising production costs, influenced by volatile crude oil prices and escalating input costs. The strong Euro helped buffer some import costs but hurt export competitiveness. Export volumes were redirected to meet domestic demand, intensifying market constraints.
The overall Q4 market trend indicated a seller’s market, with expectations of sustained price increases for Crude and Tallow Glycerine, while Refined Glycerine might experience price stabilization. Global factors like raw material costs and logistical challenges remained pivotal in shaping the market.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the Glycerine market in Saudi Arabia followed a clear upward trajectory, driven by a combination of strong demand, supply chain disruptions, and rising raw material costs. Price increases were fueled by constrained supply from Asia, particularly after China’s Golden Week, which led to longer delivery times and heightened purchasing activity from buyers, notably in Germany.
Additionally, the market faced rising palm oil prices, a key raw material for glycerine production, which were further compounded by global supply shortages. These challenges were exacerbated by limited shipping availability, inflationary pressures, and disruptions in production facilities. Throughout the quarter, demand from key sectors, particularly biofuels and oleochemicals, remained robust, sustaining upward pressure on glycerine prices. Despite some improvements in inventory management, supply shortages persisted, with global supply constraints and fluctuations in currency rates compounding the issue.
By the end of December, glycerine prices had risen steadily to $980/MT CFR Jeddah. The market is expected to remain tight heading into 2025 due to ongoing production difficulties, global supply chain challenges, and elevated raw material prices, keeping glycerine prices at elevated levels.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of 2024, the North American Glycerine market experienced a significant increase in prices, driven by strong global demand, persistent supply chain disruptions, and escalating production costs. Compared to the previous quarter, prices rose by 2%, reflecting sustained positive momentum. This upward trend indicates a favorable pricing environment characterized by robust demand and supply constraints. The consistent increase in prices throughout the quarter suggests potential for continued growth in the Glycerine sector.
Despite upward pressures, U.S. exports have outperformed expectations, leading to temporary supply constraints. Factors such as plant shutdowns, low inventory levels, and a critical shortage of shipping containers in northern regions of the U.S. have complicated the supply situation. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have strained vessel capacity and disrupted established shipping routes.
These conditions—tight supply scenarios and logistical challenges—have intensified pressure on shipping vessels and container availability, potentially leading to supply bottlenecks and higher transportation costs. Rising raw material costs, particularly for palm oil in producing regions, have inflated production expenses, compelling manufacturers to adjust their pricing strategies.
Asia Pacific
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, the Glycerine market in the APAC region experienced a pronounced upward trend in prices, influenced by escalating global demand, persistent supply chain disruptions, and rising production costs. Notably, China experienced significant price fluctuations, reflecting broader trends across the industry.
In July, Crude Glycerine prices surged due to intensified demand from domestic and international markets, compounded by scheduled plant maintenance and stockpiling in anticipation of the monsoon season. Refined Glycerine prices also rose, driven by increasing production costs related to energy price hikes and raw material expenses, particularly for palm oil. August saw continued upward momentum, with substantial weekly increases in prices. By the end of the month, Crude Glycerine prices had risen sharply, fueled by supply shortages linked to geopolitical tensions and proactive stockpiling strategies. The anticipated spike in consumption due to the monsoon further supported these trends.
The economic landscape in China presented challenges for the manufacturing sector, as indicated by a stagnant Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 49.5 in June. While there were positive indicators, such as improved export orders, logistical issues—particularly port congestion and container shortages—complicated trading sentiment. Despite these challenges, the demand outlook remained optimistic, bolstered by robust export growth driven by international market needs. In contrast, the supply outlook faced constraints from declining stock levels and increasing freight costs, impacting Glycerine prices. Concluding Q3, China reported a price of USD 383/MT for Crude Glycerine 80% CFR Shanghai, indicating a stable pricing environment. This trend underscores the importance of adaptability in a fluctuating economic landscape.
Europe
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a significant increase in Glycerine prices across the European region, influenced by key factors such as supply chain disruptions and rising raw material costs. Reduced vessel traffic and port congestion in major production hubs have led to erratic shipping schedules and regional container shortages, constraining the global Glycerine supply. The rising costs of palm oil have inflated production expenses, compelling manufacturers to implement price adjustments. Additionally, robust demand from downstream industries such as personal care, pharmaceuticals, and food has driven increased procurement activities both domestically and internationally.
In Germany, the Glycerine market experienced pronounced price fluctuations during the third quarter, primarily reflecting upward trends linked to geopolitical tensions, seasonal demand, and ongoing supply challenges. At the beginning of July, the price of Refined Glycerine USP 99.5% CFR Hamburg rose, while Crude Glycerine 80% FOB Hamburg remained stable. This increase was largely attributed to cargo shortages arising from geopolitical issues and heightened demand from domestic and international markets. Anticipating increased demand related to the monsoon season, market participants engaged in proactive stockpiling, influencing price dynamics.
Supply challenges intensified, fueled by limited inventory levels and inflationary pressures on production costs. This upward momentum continued into the second week of August, where sustained demand across various sectors—including personal care and pharmaceuticals—coupled with persistent supply chain disruptions, further supported price increases. Overall, the Glycerine market in Germany during the third quarter of 2024 was characterized by robust demand amidst rising prices, with market participants effectively adapting to fluctuating dynamics while navigating the complexities of global supply chains.
MEA
In the third quarter of 2024, the Glycerine market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region experienced a notable upward trend in prices, driven by strong demand from both local and international markets and supply constraints. Rising crude oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and increasing global supply chain costs further intensified the price escalation. Additionally, low global inventories and heightened demand ahead of seasonal closures and festivals contributed to increased market activity. The surge in palm oil prices—a critical input for Glycerine production—also played a vital role in this price increase.
Saudi Arabia, a dominant player in the Glycerine market, leveraged these dynamics to enhance its export potential. Throughout the quarter, Saudi Arabia witnessed pronounced price changes, showcasing a resilient market where prices consistently climbed. Reduced raw material production and rising freight charges particularly impacted the Saudi Arabian market. Domestic producers capitalized on these conditions by raising prices and exploiting arbitrage opportunities, creating additional pressures for importers and consumers. Compared to the same period last year, the quarter reflected a 6% increase in prices, underscoring a robust upward trend.
By the end of Q3 2024, Glycerine prices in Saudi Arabia settled at USD 943/MT CFR Jeddah, emphasizing the positive pricing environment observed throughout the quarter.
FAQ’s
1. What are the current prices of Glycerine in major regions as of June 2025?
In June 2025, spot prices stood at approximately USD 446/MT for crude and USD 1,938/MT for refined USP 99.5% Glycerine in North America. In Europe, tallow-based refined reached USD 904/MT, while refined USP touched USD 1,470/MT. In Indonesia, refined rose to USD 990/MT, and in Saudi Arabia, refined hovered around USD 1,134/MT.
2. Who are the major producers and exporters of Glycerine globally?
Key global producers include Wilmar International (Indonesia, Malaysia), Cargill (USA), Emery Oleochemicals (Germany, USA), IOI Group (Malaysia), and Godrej Industries (India). Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Malaysia, dominates global exports due to palm-based feedstock availability.
3. What is driving the current price trends for Glycerine across regions?
The price direction is shaped by multiple variables: feedstock cost inflation (mainly palm oil and tallow), biodiesel production rates, downstream demand from pharmaceuticals and personal care sectors, and logistical factors like port congestion and freight costs. Regional nuances—like currency shifts or inventory cycles—also weigh heavily.
4. What is the short-term outlook for Glycerine prices in Q3 2025?
Expect cautious optimism. Refined grades may hold firm on strong end-use demand, but crude Glycerine prices could soften if biodiesel output rebounds and inventories normalize. Watch for signals from Southeast Asia’s export flows, biofuel margins, and any shifts in downstream purchasing behavior.
