For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The Green Hydrogen market in North America during the fourth quarter of 2023 (Q4) witnessed several significant factors impacting prices. Firstly, the market experienced a bullish trend due to the elevated energy costs resulting from higher natural gas prices. This increase in production costs led to higher overall expenses for Green Hydrogen.
Additionally, there was increased investment activity in the sector, which further contributed to the positive market sentiments. Furthermore, the downstream fuel industry sustained robust demand, putting continuous pressure on the demand for Green Hydrogen. In terms of plant shutdowns, no major shutdowns were reported during this quarter.
Focusing specifically on the United States, which saw the most significant price changes, the price of Green Hydrogen PEM Electrolysis FOB California increased by 6% compared to the previous quarter. This rise in prices can be attributed to the aforementioned factors, including higher energy costs and increased investment activities. However, there was a 5% decrease in prices during the second half of the quarter compared to the first half, indicating some fluctuations in the market. The latest price for Green Hydrogen PEM Electrolysis FOB California in the USA the quarter ending December 2023 was USD 4830/MT. Overall, the Green Hydrogen market in North America during Q4 2023 experienced a bullish trend driven by higher energy costs, increased investment activities, and sustained demand from the downstream fuel industry.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the European Green Hydrogen market witnessed various factors that influenced prices and market dynamics. Firstly, the collaboration between Germany and the Netherlands in the hydrogen sector had a significant impact. Both countries signed declarations of intent to strengthen their collaboration, focusing on infrastructure, import, and establishing a cross-border hydrogen ecosystem. This joint effort created positive market sentiment and contributed to the bullish trend in prices. Secondly, the price of natural gas in the Netherlands remained high, leading to increased energy prices, which further influenced the pricing of Green Hydrogen. Additionally, investment in the sector, such as the launch of a subsidy scheme for smaller electrolysis projects, added to the positive market sentiment. No major plant shutdowns were reported during this quarter. Focusing on the Netherlands, the prices of Green Hydrogen PEM Electrolysis DEL Rotterdam showed a bullish trend. The market in the country experienced steady demand from downstream industries, particularly in the fuel sector. The stable flow of imports from the international market ensured ample inventories to fulfil this demand. The PMI value for the Netherlands indicated a contraction in the manufacturing sector, but the overall market sentiment remained positive. The price of Green Hydrogen PEM Electrolysis DEL Rotterdam in the Netherlands for the current quarter is USD 7220/MT.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 2023, the Asia Pacific green hydrogen sector experienced significant momentum, marked by increased government commitments, project announcements, and technological advancements. Key drivers included strengthened green hydrogen ambitions in Australia, Japan, South Korea, and India, along with significant investments from venture capital and public-private consortiums. Advancements in electrolyzer technology and falling renewable energy costs led to modest price reductions, encouraging adoption. Successful pilot projects demonstrated the feasibility of green hydrogen applications in renewable energy integration, transportation, and industrial processes. However, challenges persist, including the high initial costs of green hydrogen compared to traditional fossil fuels, limited infrastructure such as refueling stations and pipelines, evolving regulatory frameworks, and the need for further improvement in electrolyzer efficiency and durability. Despite the positive momentum, scaling up production and infrastructure development remain key challenges in the region.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Throughout Q3, the green hydrogen market witnessed positive developments driven by factors such as elevated energy costs arising from higher natural gas prices and increased investment activities. This upswing in investments contributed to a favourable market sentiment in the U.S. green hydrogen sector, especially with the announcement of the inaugural U.S. Gulf offshore wind auction aimed at bolstering the region's green hydrogen initiatives. Additionally, the downstream fuel industry continued to experience robust demand, intensifying the ongoing pressure on industry-wide demand. The international markets also demonstrated substantial demand, thereby reinforcing a consistent demand pressure on a global scale. On the supply side, plants operated at a stable rate with ample inventories available in the market to meet downstream demand. Furthermore, the international market's demand remained steady, resulting in continual inquiries from overseas markets. Despite these positive aspects, it's noteworthy that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the U.S. market remained below 50 throughout Q3, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This highlights a potential area of concern amid an otherwise dynamic and growing green hydrogen market.
APAC
In the Asian market, Green Hydrogen prices have seen an uptick in this quarter, primarily attributed to the escalating costs of coal, resulting in higher production expenses. Despite this, the demand from the fuel industry remained resilient throughout the quarter. Moreover, import prices were on the higher side, leading to inventories being offered at premium rates. The market also experienced lower inventory levels, contributing to the premium pricing of available inventories. Additionally, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) value for the Indian market consistently remained above 50 for all three months of this quarter, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector. This positive economic indicator reflects a flourishing manufacturing environment. Furthermore, in a noteworthy development, the Indian government, in August, declared its openness to permit carbon credit transfers to countries purchasing green hydrogen from India. A framework for this arrangement is actively being developed in collaboration with Japan. Concurrently, pilot projects for a second green steel initiative—utilizing hydrogen in the steel-making process—are underway. These initiatives collectively generated positive market sentiments in the Green Hydrogen sector, showcasing a forward-looking and environmentally conscious approach.
Europe
In the European market, green hydrogen prices demonstrated diverse trends during Q3. Despite fluctuations, they maintained a relatively stable range throughout the quarter. Specifically, prices declined from July to August and subsequently increased from August to September. This market behaviour is likely attributable to heightened investment in the green hydrogen sector, fostering a positive market sentiment. The collaboration between the UAE and Netherlands in renewable energy and green hydrogen further contributed to this development. Additionally, the government is launching a subsidy scheme aimed at supporting smaller electrolysis projects dedicated to producing hydrogen with sustainable energy. A substantial amount of nearly €250 million has been allocated, targeting the creation of 100 megawatts of electrolysis capacity. The objective is to fund 5 to 10 smaller projects across the country, allowing various companies and local authorities to gain valuable experience in electrolysis. This initiative is a part of the broader strategy to promote sustainable practices in the hydrogen production sector. Moreover, in the Netherlands market, the price of natural gas remained elevated, leading to higher energy prices. Despite this, the market experienced a stable flow of imports from the international market, with no significant disruptions reported by market participants in the supply chain.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The prices of Green Hydrogen in the US market have declined as of Q2. The decline in prices was due to weak demand from the downstream industry, like the fuel industry. Furthermore, there was an announcement of a $9.5 Billion investment for clean hydrogen from the president’s bipartisan infrastructure law, ongoing research, and development efforts across the federal government. Additionally, there was an adequate inventory level in the market to meet the demand from the downstream industry. Plants were operating at a weak rate due to weak demand from the downstream industry. Additionally, procurement of new orders was on need on-demand basis. Furthermore, Natural Gas prices decrement, causing decrement in production costs. Moreover, the rising interest rate created a pessimistic market view. Additionally, the international market demand has decreased, causing an overall pessimistic market view. Furthermore, there were weak offtakes and weak demand from the fuel industry. Thus, as of June end of Q2, the prices of Green Hydrogen were decremented to USD 3500/MT FOB California.
Asia
The prices of Green Hydrogen in the Indian market have shown mixed trends as the prices decremented in April and then the prices incremented in May and June. The trend can be explained by trends in energy prices, as Coal prices incremented in the last two months of Q2. Furthermore, demand from the downstream industry was constant but weak, which subdued market growth. Furthermore, plants were operating at a stable rate amid stable demand from the downstream industry. Furthermore, there was an adequate inventory level in the market as there was a stable flow of imports from the international market. In addition, there was a decrement in the demand for the fuel and green ammonia industry. Moreover, due to declining prices, there was hesitance in the market for procurement of large orders. Furthermore, Due to the high inventory level in the market seller offered a discount to increase market transactions as of April. Contrary, in the month of ssssssssssJune, there was firm and high demand which domestic and international markets.
Europe
There has been decrement in the prices of Green Hydrogen throughout Q2. This decrement was due to declining energy prices as LNG prices decremented throughout the second quarter. Furthermore, there was a free flow of cheap imports from the international market. Additionally, there was an adequate inventory level in the market to meet demand from the downstream industry. Additionally, there was a free flow of imports in the market, which led to high inventory levels in the market, and sellers were offering discounts to increase market transactions. Furthermore, PMI for Germany remained below 50 for the second quarter, which indicated a drop in the manufacturing sector. Plants were operating at a lower rate amid weak demand from the downstream industry. Furthermore, rising interest rates created negative market sentiments. Additionally, demand from the fuel industry has declined. Moreover, there was reluctance in the market for procurement for large orders. Therefore, as of June, the prices of Green Hydrogen in the Netherlands market were stated at 6822/MT DEL Rotterdam.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
Green Hydrogen prices shifted sentiments during the 1st quarter of 2023. At the beginning of the quarter, prices plunged noticeably amid a shift in demand-supply dynamics and a consequent increase in stocks. The trend persisted in the mid-quarter, and prices again fell in the region due to declined orders from the European importers due to the shifted interest of buyers towards conventional grey Hydrogen as it was available in excess quantity and at cheap costs due to the surplus availability of Natural Gas stocks. During the final month of Q1, prices rebounded amid affected production rates and increased orders from importers to reduce carbon emissions as chemical manufacturers are seeing the direct use of Green Hydrogen in fuel cracker furnaces rather than using Natural Gas.
Asia
The Green Hydrogen price trend showcased mixed sentiments in the Asian region during Q1 of 2023. Initially, the prices rose amid an increase in demand as the government focused on producing more green Hydrogen than conventional ones. The offtakes improved from the downstream industries and energy sector. However, price movement shifted during the mid-quarter, and prices remained stable amid stable offtakes and moderate consumption rates. Towards the end of the quarter, the upstream costs reduced with the temperature rise and eased the cost support. Simultaneously, orders for Green Hydrogen fell slightly from the energy sector with the arrival of the spring season.
Europe
In the European region, the Green Hydrogen prices dived during the Q1 of 2023. Initially, prices plummeted due to a decrease in upstream energy costs for electrolysis which eased the cost support. During the mid-quarter, the price trend improved slightly as the demand was consistent from the energy sector. Towards the end of 1st quarter, downstream Green Ammonia prices fell amid depressed demand from fertilizer producers during the quarter amid the shifted interest of buyers towards conventional grey Hydrogen as it was excessively available and at reduced costs due to the surplus availability of Natural Gas stocks. In the final month of Q1, prices again plunged amid weak offtakes and surplus supplies.
