For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market witnessed a varied pricing trend, driven by rising demand, weather-related supply disruptions, and higher feedstock costs. The prices increased for the initial two months, however, declined at the end of the quarter. A surge in demand across packaging, construction, and automotive sectors led to a price increase in the USA, further supported by a rise in ethylene prices. Severe winter conditions caused by Winter Storm Enzo disrupted petrochemical production in Texas and Louisiana, tightening supply and leading producers to halt fresh offers.
Export demand remained strong, with shipments to Europe, Africa, and Latin America pushing prices higher despite muted Asian demand due to the Lunar New Year. While manufacturing activity in the U.S. expanded, inflationary pressures and the looming 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports in March added further uncertainty, prompting aggressive spot buying.
In Mexico, HDPE prices rose by 1% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tighter supply and firming market fundamentals. By the end of Q1, HDPE Blow Moulding Grade CFR Veracruz witnessed a price decline of 6% in March 2025. With ongoing supply constraints, geopolitical uncertainties, and potential tariff impacts, market participants face challenges in securing stable supply and mitigating cost pressures, keeping HDPE prices on an upward trajectory.
APAC
The APAC HDPE market in Q1 2025 experienced fluctuating trends, with prices stabilizing in January and February before declining in March. Despite steady demand in the packaging, construction, and automotive sectors, cautious buyer sentiment and external economic uncertainties kept the market subdued. Rising feedstock ethylene costs and supply disruptions from the Middle East initially supported price stability. However, sluggish demand recovery and competitive global pricing limited any significant upward movement. By March, increased Chinese exports to Southeast Asia and Europe, driven by domestic oversupply and U.S. tariffs, ensured adequate regional HDPE availability. Declining regional freight costs further eased supply pressures, stabilizing inventory levels. Despite steady consumption, weak global demand and geopolitical uncertainties weighed on sentiment, prompting cautious procurement strategies among buyers. HDPE Blow Molding Grade FOB Tokyo (Japan) prices declined by 0.5% in March, marking an overall 2% decrease in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. The downward trend reflects sustained supply availability and hesitant buying activity amid global trade concerns. While Japan’s market remains balanced, future price movements will depend on regional trade policies, energy costs, and macroeconomic stability, posing challenges for market participants navigating shifting demand dynamics.
Europe
The European High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in Q1 2025 faced a continued downturn, with prices declining due to weak demand and stable supply conditions. Despite early signs of market stabilization, sluggish purchasing activity from key sectors such as construction and automotive kept overall sentiment bearish. Buyers remained cautious, avoiding excess stockpiling amid ongoing economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, domestic production remained steady, and reduced reliance on imports helped ease supply-side constraints. Although seasonal demand for agricultural films offered limited support, the broader market struggled to maintain momentum. Feedstock ethylene and upstream naphtha prices showed moderate increases in January, raising production costs, but this did not translate into sustained price hikes for HDPE due to lackluster demand. Additionally, the weakening euro made imports costlier, yet declining global freight rates offset some of the impact. By the end of Q1, HDPE Injection FD West Yorkshire (UK) prices declined by 2% compared to Q4 2024, with a quarter-ending price drop of 0.2% in March 2025. The ongoing challenges of low construction activity, slow automotive sales, and persistent inflation kept the market under pressure. Without a significant demand recovery, HDPE prices are expected to remain subdued in the near term.
MEA
The HDPE market in the MEA region experienced mixed trends in Q1 2025, with prices remaining stable in January, rising in February due to increased restocking ahead of Ramadan, and declining in March as demand softened. Despite steady domestic consumption across packaging and construction sectors, weak overseas demand, particularly from Asia and Turkey, kept price momentum limited. Supply conditions remained balanced, with Middle Eastern producers maintaining stable production levels, though planned maintenance in February briefly tightened availability. Feedstock ethylene prices fluctuated throughout the quarter, briefly increasing production costs in February, but this did not lead to sustained price hikes due to demand constraints. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties, including disruptions in major shipping routes, added further complexity to trade flows. By March, market sentiment weakened as buyers postponed purchases until after Ramadan, leading to a quarter-ending decline. HDPE Film Grade FOB Jebel Ali (UAE) prices dropped by 1.2% in March, contributing to an overall 1% decrease in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. With demand-side weakness prevailing and economic uncertainties persisting, the MEA HDPE market faces continued pressure in the near term.
South America
The South American HDPE market showed a mixed performance in Q1 2025, with prices rising in January and February due to increased import costs and tightening supply, but declining in March as global pricing pressures mounted. Supply constraints from the U.S., driven by severe weather and production disruptions, limited export availability early in the quarter, leading to price hikes in Brazil. Strong domestic demand across the packaging, construction, and automotive sectors further supported this upward trend. However, by March, lower-cost imports and softened global demand caused a shift in market dynamics. A decline in U.S. HDPE prices, driven by weaker domestic consumption and lower ethylene costs, translated to reduced import prices in Brazil. Additionally, improved supply chain conditions and decreasing freight rates contributed to a downward price adjustment. While the automotive sector remained resilient, fluctuations in construction activity tempered overall demand growth. As a result, HDPE Blow Molding Grade CFR Santos (Brazil) prices fell by 6.2% in March, marking a quarterly decline despite earlier gains. Compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 prices increased by 1% overall but ended on a weaker note. The market faces ongoing uncertainty, with price volatility influenced by shifting trade flows, fluctuating feedstock costs, and external economic pressures.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in North America experienced a notable decline, driven by weakening demand across key sectors like packaging, construction, and automotive. Easing feedstock Ethylene prices indicated a potential oversupply, putting additional pressure on the market. The region was also impacted by logistical disruptions, including hurricanes that affected operations, and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike at U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports, further delaying shipments and exacerbating supply chain challenges.
The U.S. Presidential Election created an environment of uncertainty, which led to reduced investments and inventory accumulation. Despite these challenges, some cautious optimism remained regarding a future demand recovery, fueled by expectations of lower interest rates and a potential stabilization in the political environment. However, by December, market conditions remained volatile, influenced by the looming ILA strike and the anticipated tariff hikes under the incoming Trump Administration. These tariffs raised concerns over trade flows and resin price stability.
In Mexico, the HDPE market saw the most significant price adjustments, with prices declining due to weak demand, stable supply levels, and the influx of low-cost imported materials. The quarter ended with HDPE Blow Molding Grade CFR Veracruz prices quoted at USD 1214/MT in December, reflecting the overall market slowdown.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the APAC region experienced a notable decline, driven by weakened demand across key downstream sectors, including packaging, construction, and automotive. The easing cost of crude oil by mid-quarter, influenced by maintenance shutdowns at Chinese refineries and reduced imports, further pressured prices. While these facilities restarted, boosting supply, traders lowered prices to manage the high product availability. Rising shipping costs and cautious buyer behavior amid global political and economic uncertainties dampened international market activity, with regional markets maintaining a steady to slightly stronger trend due to currency depreciation benefiting local sellers. In Southeast Asia, limited deals and reduced Middle Eastern cargoes kept prices subdued. Oversupply from the Middle East and the U.S., combined with declining regional demand, pushed buyers to avoid inventory accumulation ahead of year-end. Seasonal factors, including weaker demand for packaging and greenhouse films, further contributed to the market's softness. The interplay of high supply levels and tepid demand continued to weigh on pricing sentiment, leaving traders with limited support to sustain prices. By December, geopolitical uncertainties, including potential tariff reimpositions under a prospective Trump administration, added to the market’s instability. Japan witnessed the most significant price changes, with a noticeable drop as the HDPE Blow molding Grade FOB Tokyo prices fell to USD 988/MT in December 2024, highlighting the region’s negative pricing sentiment and broader challenges of oversupply and subdued demand throughout the quarter.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in Europe experienced a steady decline, driven by falling feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha prices, coupled with weak demand from key sectors like construction and automotive. Economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties further pressured market dynamics, as buyers hesitated to make significant purchases in anticipation of continued price reductions. Sellers, facing diminished demand, sought to offload inventory, exacerbating the oversupply situation. Subdued trading activity and reduced production costs failed to offset the downturn, with market sentiment remaining fragile throughout the quarter. The decline in Asia-Europe ocean freight rates, driven by early post-peak shipping schedules, reduced import demand, and further impacted HDPE prices in the region. Seasonal factors, such as the year-end holiday slowdown, compounded the drop in demand across downstream industries. In the Eurozone, historically low housing activity added to the slump, with housing construction showing no signs of recovery and contributing to lower HDPE demand. By December, market sentiment remained fragile amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and mild winter weather, which softened energy consumption. The UK saw the most significant price fluctuations, with HDPE Injection FD prices in West Yorkshire quoted at USD 1280/MT, underscoring the challenging pricing environment throughout the quarter.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the MEA region experienced mixed dynamics, beginning with a brief rise in prices due to increasing crude oil costs and geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which disrupted critical shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. However, as the quarter progressed, prices declined due to easing feedstock Ethylene costs and moderate to low demand from downstream sectors such as packaging and construction. While demand from domestic and overseas markets, particularly Asia, remained consistent, it was insufficient to drive a strong recovery, with economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions further weighing on market sentiment. Export activity to Asian markets stayed steady but lacked momentum amid subdued demand and competitive U.S. offers, which added pressure to the regional HDPE market. Lengthened supplies and reduced production costs in Saudi Arabia, driven by softened Ethylene prices, helped stabilize pricing temporarily, but overall market conditions remained bearish. By year-end, seasonal destocking, and cautious buyer behavior, coupled with low overseas demand, kept sentiment weak. In the UAE, HDPE prices followed the broader regional trend, consistently declining throughout the quarter. By December, HDPE Injection Moulding Grade FOB Jebel Ali was quoted at USD 1044/MT, underscoring the persistent challenges of oversupply, geopolitical uncertainties, and subdued demand impacting the MEA HDPE market.
South America
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in South America faced a significant downturn, primarily driven by weakening demand across key sectors such as packaging, construction, and automotive. Lower costs of imported materials, particularly from North America, combined with ample regional supply, prompted traders to reduce prices to maintain market balance. Brazil experienced the most notable price adjustments, with demand remaining moderate and insufficient to drive recovery. The strike involving approximately 60,000 Brazilian port workers on October 22 disrupted vessel operations and reduced port productivity, further straining logistics and market conditions. This added complexity to an already cautious market environment, as weak consumption continued to dampen demand growth throughout November. By December, year-end destocking further limited activity, with the slow recovery in the construction and automotive sectors curtailing the potential for a more pronounced rebound. HDPE Blow Molding Grade CFR Santos prices in Brazil were quoted at USD 1065/MT by the quarter's end, reflecting the persistent challenges of supply-demand imbalances, logistical disruptions, and external market pressures impacting the South American HDPE market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in North America exhibited a mixed trend characterized by an initial price surge in July, followed by a decline for the remainder of the quarter. The overall market experienced a decrease compared to the same period last year, driven by moderate to low demand from key sectors such as construction, automotive, and packaging.
Compounding these challenges were supply constraints resulting from production disruptions and adverse weather conditions due to hurricanes in the region, which negatively impacted logistics and operations. The fluctuating prices of feedstock Ethylene, along with upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices, further influenced market dynamics.
Moreover, Mexico faced the most significant price adjustments as the drop in prices was attributed to weakened demand, stable supply levels, competitive pricing from other regions, and the low cost of imported materials. Consequently, the quarter concluded with a notable easing of HDPE Blow molding Grade CFR Veracruz prices, decreasing by 0.5% in September compared to the previous month. This overall trend reflected a stable to negative pricing environment in the region, highlighting the complex interplay of demand and supply factors affecting the HDPE market.
APAC
In Q3 2024, High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) prices in the APAC region exhibited a declining trend, highlighting a challenging market environment. This downtrend was influenced by weakened demand across key downstream sectors, including packaging, construction, and automotive industries. High supply levels further pressured the market, as sluggish demand and cautious buying behavior among importers exacerbated the situation. The easing of feedstock Ethylene prices and fluctuations in Crude oil costs also contributed to the overall decline in HDPE prices, impacting market dynamics throughout the quarter. Moreover, Typhoon Yagi disrupted supply chains across Asia, particularly affecting southern China and Vietnam, exacerbating logistical difficulties. The super typhoon wreaked havoc on northern Vietnam and caused heavy rains across southern China, leading to delays in ocean logistics out of Haiphong, vessel hold-ups in the region, and container terminal shutdowns in Hong Kong. Severe weather across East Asian ports intensified congestion at Chinese ports, with waiting times at key ports like Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao, and Yantian due to vessel bunching, further straining the supply chain. Japan, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes, with a noticeable drop compared to the same period last year. By the end of the quarter, HDPE Blowmolding Grade FOB Tokyo prices showed a decrease of 1.1% in September compared to the previous month, emphasizing the prevailing negative pricing sentiment in the region. This decline underscored the broader challenges facing the APAC HDPE market, marked by oversupply and weakened downstream demand, which collectively pressured prices downward throughout the quarter.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in Europe experienced a notable upward trend in prices, driven by several key factors. The increasing costs of feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha significantly impacted production expenses, exerting substantial cost pressures on HDPE products. Further, fluctuations in crude oil prices further influenced market dynamics, adding to the complexity of pricing strategies. Geopolitical tensions in the region contributed to supply constraints, while port congestions restricted the availability of various HDPE grades, exacerbating the price surge. Moreover, the overall supply of HDPE tightened considerably, particularly in September, as the manufacturing sector faced a sharp decline. This decline was characterized by significant reductions in new orders, purchasing activities, and employment levels, further straining supply chains. In the UK, the most pronounced price fluctuations were observed, with prices showing a consistent upward trajectory compared to the previous quarter. For instance, the price of HDPE Injection FD in West Yorkshire surged by 3.1% in August, followed by a modest increase of 0.6% in September, indicating a stable and favorable pricing environment throughout the quarter.
MEA
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the MEA region experienced a notable decline in prices, influenced by several critical factors. The significant decrease can be primarily attributed to a weakened global economic outlook, leading to subdued demand from downstream sectors such as construction, packaging, and automotive industries. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions further impacted market sentiment, contributing to uncertainty among buyers and suppliers. The easing price trajectory of feedstock Ethylene, coupled with fluctuating Crude oil prices, played a crucial role in driving HDPE prices lower throughout the quarter. In the UAE, the market saw the most significant price adjustments compared to other countries in the region, reflecting local market dynamics. The UAE experienced a consistent decrease in HDPE prices, mirroring the broader trend across the MEA region. This decline, in comparison to the same quarter last year, highlighted the challenging conditions faced by the industry. By the end of the quarter, HDPE prices in Jebel Ali, UAE, reflected a 0.4% decrease from the previous month, signaling the culmination of the downward pricing environment and underscoring the persistent pressures impacting the HDPE market in the region.
South America
In Q3 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in South America displayed a mixed trend, with prices initially rising before declining for the remainder of the quarter, ultimately resulting in a bearish outlook. Several factors influenced this trend, including ample supply levels, subdued demand from key downstream industries like packaging and construction, and lower costs of imported materials from major markets. Further, the easing of feedstock Ethylene prices reduced cost pressures, contributing to the decline in HDPE prices as imported material prices softened. The market also faced logistical and production challenges due to weather-related disruptions, further affecting pricing dynamics throughout the region. Brazil, in particular, saw the most notable price adjustments, with a consistent downward trend throughout the quarter as the market struggled with weak demand and abundant supply. By the end of the quarter, HDPE Blow Molding Grade CFR Santos in Brazil registered a 0.5% decrease in September compared to the previous month, highlighting the negative sentiment prevailing in the market. This trend underscored the impact of supply-demand imbalances and external factors such as logistics and feedstock fluctuations on the South American HDPE market in Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in North America experienced a sustained decline in prices, however, surged in the last month of the quarter. The primary reason for this downward trend was the low cost of imported materials, which exerted significant pressure on domestic market prices.
Despite stable feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha prices, ample stock availability further encouraged traders to maintain lower pricing levels. Further, moderate demand from downstream sectors such as construction and packaging failed to absorb the existing supply, reinforcing the downward pricing trajectory. This situation was compounded by high freight rates from the Middle East and Asia, driving international buyers towards competitively priced U.S. resin, thus influencing the overall market dynamics.
Further, seasonality influenced demand, with the onset of summer typically heightening activity in key industries. However, this seasonal surge was insufficient to counterbalance the prevailing surplus. The latest quarter-ending price stood at USD 1301/MT for HDPE Blow Molding grade CFR Veracruz (Mexico). Overall, the pricing sentiment for HDPE in Q2 2024 was negative, though it rebounded by quarter end, driven by supply and demand dynamics.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the APAC region experienced notable price increases driven by several significant factors. Predominantly, these price hikes were influenced by a combination of elevated upstream crude oil costs, rising freight rates, and tight supply due to ongoing plant maintenance across the region. Despite some stabilization in feedstock Ethylene prices, the overall market sentiment remained robust, bolstered by steady demand from downstream construction, packaging, and automotive sectors. Critical logistical challenges, such as vessel congestion and container shortages, further exacerbated the supply constraints, leading to higher costs and sustained price elevation. Focusing on Japan, the HDPE market saw the most substantial price changes. The quarter witnessed a steady upward trend, influenced by factors such as seasonal procurement activities and increased manufacturing output. Concluding the quarter, the price of HDPE Blowmolding Grade FOB Tokyo was USD 1030/MT. This consistent increase underscores the positive pricing environment, driven by strong demand fundamentals and supply chain disruptions, projecting a bullish outlook for the HDPE market in Japan and other Asian markets.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market experienced a pronounced decline in pricing, driven primarily by an oversupply situation and subdued demand across key sectors. The persistence of an excess supply, despite stable feedstock Ethylene prices, was exacerbated by a consistent inflow of imports from the USA and the Middle East. Additionally, higher logistics costs and delays, due to cargo re-routing, further compounded market pressures. Further, coupled with weak economic conditions, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors, heavily influenced market dynamics, precipitating a bearish trend. Focusing on the UK, which witnessed significant price fluctuations, the HDPE market displayed a stark downward trajectory. The country’s HDPE prices were particularly volatile, reflecting broader regional trends of ample supply against stagnant demand. The overall trend demonstrated a clear seasonal effect, with prices declining substantially in the second half of the quarter. The quarter concluded with HDPE Injection grade prices reaching USD 1273/MT in West Yorkshire, UK. This consistent downward pressure underscores a negative pricing environment for HDPE in the region. The persistent supply-demand imbalance, coupled with macroeconomic strains, has cemented a negative sentiment in the market, reflecting the challenges faced by producers and converters in managing costs and maintaining profitability amidst weakening market fundamentals.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the MEA region experienced an overall decrease in prices, however, witnessed an escalation in June, by quarter end. Several factors contributed to this trend, including easing feedstock Ethylene prices and Crude oil price fluctuations. The construction and packaging sectors showed a decrease in demand for HDPE, while geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, particularly in the Red Sea, affected supply. Freight rates saw a slight increase, but the impact on overall pricing remained contained due to balanced market conditions. In the United Arab Emirates, the HDPE market exhibited the most notable price changes within the MEA region. Though the trend remained declining, nevertheless, it rebounded in June amid an escalation in the freight rates amid Red Sea disturbances and port congestions in the Asian region. which has impacted the prices of the products globally and has led to a price surge. The overall trend signifies a depreciating pricing environment, with the latest quarter-ending price for HDPE Injection Molding FOB Jebel Ali standing at USD 1083/MT.
South America
In Q2 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in South America experienced a sustained decline in prices, with a marginal surge in the last month of the quarter. This downward trend was primarily due to the low cost of imported materials from North America, which exerted significant pressure on domestic market prices. Despite stable feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha prices, ample stock availability encouraged traders to maintain lower pricing levels. Additionally, moderate demand from downstream sectors such as construction and packaging failed to absorb the existing supply, reinforcing the downward pricing trajectory. High freight rates from the Middle East and Asia further influenced market dynamics, driving international buyers toward competitively priced U.S. resin. Seasonal demand fluctuations, with the onset of summer typically heightening activity in key industries, were insufficient to counterbalance the prevailing surplus. By the end of the quarter, the price of HDPE Film grade CFR Santos in Brazil stood at USD 1268/MT. Overall, the pricing sentiment for HDPE in Q2 2024 was negative, though it rebounded by quarter-end due to supply and demand dynamics.
