For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The HDPE Price in the United States increased by 1% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, driven by stronger domestic procurement and rising feedstock costs, particularly ethylene.
• The HDPE Price Index remained mostly stable throughout the quarter but showed an upward trend in late June due to tighter supply conditions, stronger buying interest in packaging and industrial applications, and improved export momentum.
• Domestic supply remained steady, supported by uninterrupted plant operations and proactive stockpiling amid tariff-related uncertainties. Export volumes initially surged ahead of retaliatory duties but dropped sharply in April before partially recovering through rerouting to Europe and Latin America.
• Key downstream sectors presented mixed dynamics: packaging demand held firm, institutional construction activity improved, but overall construction spending declined. Automotive demand weakened, further impacting consumption patterns.
Why did the price of HDPE change in July 2025 in the US?
• HDPE Price increased due to higher ethylene feedstock costs, tighter domestic availability, and firm demand from packaging and industrial sectors. Stronger export interest and limited inventory restocking further supported the upward movement in the HDPE Price Index.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend showed an upward trajectory, influenced by increased raw material and energy costs, along with persistent inflationary signals in producer inputs. Despite this, stable domestic operations prevented supply disruptions.
• The HDPE Demand Outlook remained moderately positive, with steady consumption in packaging, partial recovery in institutional construction, and support from employment gains in the building sector. However, ongoing weakness in automotive sales and private construction capped broader demand acceleration.
APAC
• The HDPE Price in Indonesia declined by 11% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, exerting significant downward pressure on the Price Index across the Southeast Asian market.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend softened due to falling global crude and ethylene prices, reduced freight rates, and stable operating rates among regional producers.
• Ample supply—driven by redirected U.S. shipments, steady inflows from the Middle East and China, and subdued logistics costs—outpaced the sluggish offtake from packaging, automotive, and construction sectors.
• The HDPE Demand Outlook remained weak, as buyers adopted a cautious, wait-and-watch approach amid economic uncertainty, inventory buildup, and inflationary pressures that did not translate into stronger consumption.
Why did the price of HDPE change in July 2025 in Asia?
• The HDPE Price in Indonesia decreased in July 2025 due to persistent oversupply, weaker downstream demand, and cheaper imported alternatives.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend remained low, aided by stable regional production, softening freight rates, and minimal cost pressures from raw materials.
• The HDPE Demand Outlook stayed muted, particularly in construction and packaging sectors, where buyers limited procurement to essential volumes amid uncertainty over tariffs and export prospects.
• The HDPE Price Forecast suggests continued downward pressure unless demand fundamentals improve or supply tightens, which currently seems unlikely given ongoing regional competition and macroeconomic headwinds.
Europe
• The HDPE Price in Germany exhibited a mixed trend over Q2 2025, with early-quarter gains driven by tight supply conditions stemming from plant maintenance and limited import volumes.
• Despite weak demand across sectors like packaging, construction, and automotive, initial upward pressure was sustained due to lower local availability and cautious optimism among suppliers.
• However, HDPE Price Index declined toward the end of the quarter as post-holiday sluggishness, weak downstream demand, and an influx of competitively priced imports, particularly from the U.S. and Turkey, weighed heavily on prices.
• HDPE producers were unable to pass on costs despite a decline in ethylene feedstock prices, as ample domestic inventory and tepid trading volumes curtailed their pricing power.
Why did the price of HDPE change in July 2025 in Europe?
• In July 2025, the HDPE Price Index declined due to an oversupplied domestic market, weak downstream demand, and competitive import volumes.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend was lower, influenced by declining ethylene prices, but producers struggled to retain margins.
• The HDPE Demand Outlook remained soft, especially in construction and packaging, with only mild support from the automotive sector.
• The HDPE Price Forecast indicates that unless demand revives or supply tightens, bearish pressure may persist across the region.
MEA
• The HDPE Price in Saudi Arabia decreased by 15% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, leading to a consistent downward adjustment in the Price Index throughout the quarter.
• The price decline was driven by a mix of ample supply, muted export interest, and restrained domestic buying amid global economic caution. Despite high operating rates and stable inventory levels, downstream offtake remained subdued across packaging, construction, and consumer goods.
• Export demand weakened further due to evolving trade dynamics, including new U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from China, which disrupted regional trade flows. Domestic demand also softened during the Eid holiday season, contributing to low spot activity.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend stayed largely stable, supported by low feedstock ethylene and naphtha prices, allowing producers to maintain output levels without significant margin pressure.
• The HDPE Demand Outlook remains cautious, with modest support expected from ongoing infrastructure initiatives under Vision 2030, though actual offtake is limited due to project delays and resource constraints.
Why did the price of HDPE change in July 2025 in MEA?
• The HDPE Price remained stable in early July 2025, diverging from the prior sharp downtrend. This shift was due to balanced production and steady—though unaggressive—demand from sectors like construction and utilities.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend experienced minor upward pressure from feedstock ethylene costs but continued supply availability and stable cracker operations kept price movement in check.
• The HDPE Demand Outlook showed slight improvement, particularly from government-led infrastructure efforts, helping to sustain market equilibrium.
• Trading activity remained range-bound as buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, anticipating clearer signals from global macroeconomic developments and regional procurement cycles.
South America
• The HDPE Price in Brazil declined by 18% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reflected in a notable dip in the Price Index.
• Weak domestic demand continued to weigh heavily on the market, as buyers focused on short-term procurement and avoided excess inventory amid economic uncertainty.
• Although import volumes from the United States remained steady, Brazilian buyers grew cautious following new U.S. tariff announcements, leading to reduced reliance on U.S.-origin cargoes.
• Despite consistent import flows and stable domestic supply, the HDPE Demand Outlook remained tepid, especially in the automotive sector, although packaging and construction provided a modest cushion.
Why did the HDPE price change in July 2025 in South America?
• In July 2025, the HDPE Spot Price in Brazil showed signs of stability following the previous quarter’s downturn. The price shift was primarily driven by a cautiously optimistic demand recovery from construction and packaging sectors.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend remained manageable, aided by slower inflation and steady import pricing.
• However, the HDPE Demand Outlook stayed mixed, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach amid ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and trade realignments.
• The HDPE Price Forecast suggests only mild upward pressure unless downstream recovery strengthens across key sectors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market witnessed a varied pricing trend, driven by rising demand, weather-related supply disruptions, and higher feedstock costs. The prices increased for the initial two months, however, declined at the end of the quarter. A surge in demand across packaging, construction, and automotive sectors led to a price increase in the USA, further supported by a rise in ethylene prices. Severe winter conditions caused by Winter Storm Enzo disrupted petrochemical production in Texas and Louisiana, tightening supply and leading producers to halt fresh offers.
Export demand remained strong, with shipments to Europe, Africa, and Latin America pushing prices higher despite muted Asian demand due to the Lunar New Year. While manufacturing activity in the U.S. expanded, inflationary pressures and the looming 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports in March added further uncertainty, prompting aggressive spot buying.
In Mexico, HDPE prices rose by 1% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tighter supply and firming market fundamentals. By the end of Q1, HDPE Blow Moulding Grade CFR Veracruz witnessed a price decline of 6% in March 2025. With ongoing supply constraints, geopolitical uncertainties, and potential tariff impacts, market participants face challenges in securing stable supply and mitigating cost pressures, keeping HDPE prices on an upward trajectory.
APAC
The APAC HDPE market in Q1 2025 experienced fluctuating trends, with prices stabilizing in January and February before declining in March. Despite steady demand in the packaging, construction, and automotive sectors, cautious buyer sentiment and external economic uncertainties kept the market subdued. Rising feedstock ethylene costs and supply disruptions from the Middle East initially supported price stability. However, sluggish demand recovery and competitive global pricing limited any significant upward movement. By March, increased Chinese exports to Southeast Asia and Europe, driven by domestic oversupply and U.S. tariffs, ensured adequate regional HDPE availability. Declining regional freight costs further eased supply pressures, stabilizing inventory levels. Despite steady consumption, weak global demand and geopolitical uncertainties weighed on sentiment, prompting cautious procurement strategies among buyers. HDPE Blow Molding Grade FOB Tokyo (Japan) prices declined by 0.5% in March, marking an overall 2% decrease in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. The downward trend reflects sustained supply availability and hesitant buying activity amid global trade concerns. While Japan’s market remains balanced, future price movements will depend on regional trade policies, energy costs, and macroeconomic stability, posing challenges for market participants navigating shifting demand dynamics.
Europe
The European High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in Q1 2025 faced a continued downturn, with prices declining due to weak demand and stable supply conditions. Despite early signs of market stabilization, sluggish purchasing activity from key sectors such as construction and automotive kept overall sentiment bearish. Buyers remained cautious, avoiding excess stockpiling amid ongoing economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, domestic production remained steady, and reduced reliance on imports helped ease supply-side constraints. Although seasonal demand for agricultural films offered limited support, the broader market struggled to maintain momentum. Feedstock ethylene and upstream naphtha prices showed moderate increases in January, raising production costs, but this did not translate into sustained price hikes for HDPE due to lackluster demand. Additionally, the weakening euro made imports costlier, yet declining global freight rates offset some of the impact. By the end of Q1, HDPE Injection FD West Yorkshire (UK) prices declined by 2% compared to Q4 2024, with a quarter-ending price drop of 0.2% in March 2025. The ongoing challenges of low construction activity, slow automotive sales, and persistent inflation kept the market under pressure. Without a significant demand recovery, HDPE prices are expected to remain subdued in the near term.
MEA
The HDPE market in the MEA region experienced mixed trends in Q1 2025, with prices remaining stable in January, rising in February due to increased restocking ahead of Ramadan, and declining in March as demand softened. Despite steady domestic consumption across packaging and construction sectors, weak overseas demand, particularly from Asia and Turkey, kept price momentum limited. Supply conditions remained balanced, with Middle Eastern producers maintaining stable production levels, though planned maintenance in February briefly tightened availability. Feedstock ethylene prices fluctuated throughout the quarter, briefly increasing production costs in February, but this did not lead to sustained price hikes due to demand constraints. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties, including disruptions in major shipping routes, added further complexity to trade flows. By March, market sentiment weakened as buyers postponed purchases until after Ramadan, leading to a quarter-ending decline. HDPE Film Grade FOB Jebel Ali (UAE) prices dropped by 1.2% in March, contributing to an overall 1% decrease in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. With demand-side weakness prevailing and economic uncertainties persisting, the MEA HDPE market faces continued pressure in the near term.
South America
The South American HDPE market showed a mixed performance in Q1 2025, with prices rising in January and February due to increased import costs and tightening supply, but declining in March as global pricing pressures mounted. Supply constraints from the U.S., driven by severe weather and production disruptions, limited export availability early in the quarter, leading to price hikes in Brazil. Strong domestic demand across the packaging, construction, and automotive sectors further supported this upward trend. However, by March, lower-cost imports and softened global demand caused a shift in market dynamics. A decline in U.S. HDPE prices, driven by weaker domestic consumption and lower ethylene costs, translated to reduced import prices in Brazil. Additionally, improved supply chain conditions and decreasing freight rates contributed to a downward price adjustment. While the automotive sector remained resilient, fluctuations in construction activity tempered overall demand growth. As a result, HDPE Blow Molding Grade CFR Santos (Brazil) prices fell by 6.2% in March, marking a quarterly decline despite earlier gains. Compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 prices increased by 1% overall but ended on a weaker note. The market faces ongoing uncertainty, with price volatility influenced by shifting trade flows, fluctuating feedstock costs, and external economic pressures.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in North America experienced a notable decline, driven by weakening demand across key sectors like packaging, construction, and automotive. Easing feedstock Ethylene prices indicated a potential oversupply, putting additional pressure on the market. The region was also impacted by logistical disruptions, including hurricanes that affected operations, and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike at U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports, further delaying shipments and exacerbating supply chain challenges.
The U.S. Presidential Election created an environment of uncertainty, which led to reduced investments and inventory accumulation. Despite these challenges, some cautious optimism remained regarding a future demand recovery, fueled by expectations of lower interest rates and a potential stabilization in the political environment. However, by December, market conditions remained volatile, influenced by the looming ILA strike and the anticipated tariff hikes under the incoming Trump Administration. These tariffs raised concerns over trade flows and resin price stability.
In Mexico, the HDPE market saw the most significant price adjustments, with prices declining due to weak demand, stable supply levels, and the influx of low-cost imported materials. The quarter ended with HDPE Blow Molding Grade CFR Veracruz prices quoted at USD 1214/MT in December, reflecting the overall market slowdown.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the APAC region experienced a notable decline, driven by weakened demand across key downstream sectors, including packaging, construction, and automotive. The easing cost of crude oil by mid-quarter, influenced by maintenance shutdowns at Chinese refineries and reduced imports, further pressured prices. While these facilities restarted, boosting supply, traders lowered prices to manage the high product availability. Rising shipping costs and cautious buyer behavior amid global political and economic uncertainties dampened international market activity, with regional markets maintaining a steady to slightly stronger trend due to currency depreciation benefiting local sellers. In Southeast Asia, limited deals and reduced Middle Eastern cargoes kept prices subdued. Oversupply from the Middle East and the U.S., combined with declining regional demand, pushed buyers to avoid inventory accumulation ahead of year-end. Seasonal factors, including weaker demand for packaging and greenhouse films, further contributed to the market's softness. The interplay of high supply levels and tepid demand continued to weigh on pricing sentiment, leaving traders with limited support to sustain prices. By December, geopolitical uncertainties, including potential tariff reimpositions under a prospective Trump administration, added to the market’s instability. Japan witnessed the most significant price changes, with a noticeable drop as the HDPE Blow molding Grade FOB Tokyo prices fell to USD 988/MT in December 2024, highlighting the region’s negative pricing sentiment and broader challenges of oversupply and subdued demand throughout the quarter.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in Europe experienced a steady decline, driven by falling feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha prices, coupled with weak demand from key sectors like construction and automotive. Economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties further pressured market dynamics, as buyers hesitated to make significant purchases in anticipation of continued price reductions. Sellers, facing diminished demand, sought to offload inventory, exacerbating the oversupply situation. Subdued trading activity and reduced production costs failed to offset the downturn, with market sentiment remaining fragile throughout the quarter. The decline in Asia-Europe ocean freight rates, driven by early post-peak shipping schedules, reduced import demand, and further impacted HDPE prices in the region. Seasonal factors, such as the year-end holiday slowdown, compounded the drop in demand across downstream industries. In the Eurozone, historically low housing activity added to the slump, with housing construction showing no signs of recovery and contributing to lower HDPE demand. By December, market sentiment remained fragile amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and mild winter weather, which softened energy consumption. The UK saw the most significant price fluctuations, with HDPE Injection FD prices in West Yorkshire quoted at USD 1280/MT, underscoring the challenging pricing environment throughout the quarter.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the MEA region experienced mixed dynamics, beginning with a brief rise in prices due to increasing crude oil costs and geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which disrupted critical shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. However, as the quarter progressed, prices declined due to easing feedstock Ethylene costs and moderate to low demand from downstream sectors such as packaging and construction. While demand from domestic and overseas markets, particularly Asia, remained consistent, it was insufficient to drive a strong recovery, with economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions further weighing on market sentiment. Export activity to Asian markets stayed steady but lacked momentum amid subdued demand and competitive U.S. offers, which added pressure to the regional HDPE market. Lengthened supplies and reduced production costs in Saudi Arabia, driven by softened Ethylene prices, helped stabilize pricing temporarily, but overall market conditions remained bearish. By year-end, seasonal destocking, and cautious buyer behavior, coupled with low overseas demand, kept sentiment weak. In the UAE, HDPE prices followed the broader regional trend, consistently declining throughout the quarter. By December, HDPE Injection Moulding Grade FOB Jebel Ali was quoted at USD 1044/MT, underscoring the persistent challenges of oversupply, geopolitical uncertainties, and subdued demand impacting the MEA HDPE market.
South America
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in South America faced a significant downturn, primarily driven by weakening demand across key sectors such as packaging, construction, and automotive. Lower costs of imported materials, particularly from North America, combined with ample regional supply, prompted traders to reduce prices to maintain market balance. Brazil experienced the most notable price adjustments, with demand remaining moderate and insufficient to drive recovery. The strike involving approximately 60,000 Brazilian port workers on October 22 disrupted vessel operations and reduced port productivity, further straining logistics and market conditions. This added complexity to an already cautious market environment, as weak consumption continued to dampen demand growth throughout November. By December, year-end destocking further limited activity, with the slow recovery in the construction and automotive sectors curtailing the potential for a more pronounced rebound. HDPE Blow Molding Grade CFR Santos prices in Brazil were quoted at USD 1065/MT by the quarter's end, reflecting the persistent challenges of supply-demand imbalances, logistical disruptions, and external market pressures impacting the South American HDPE market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in North America exhibited a mixed trend characterized by an initial price surge in July, followed by a decline for the remainder of the quarter. The overall market experienced a decrease compared to the same period last year, driven by moderate to low demand from key sectors such as construction, automotive, and packaging.
Compounding these challenges were supply constraints resulting from production disruptions and adverse weather conditions due to hurricanes in the region, which negatively impacted logistics and operations. The fluctuating prices of feedstock Ethylene, along with upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices, further influenced market dynamics.
Moreover, Mexico faced the most significant price adjustments as the drop in prices was attributed to weakened demand, stable supply levels, competitive pricing from other regions, and the low cost of imported materials. Consequently, the quarter concluded with a notable easing of HDPE Blow molding Grade CFR Veracruz prices, decreasing by 0.5% in September compared to the previous month. This overall trend reflected a stable to negative pricing environment in the region, highlighting the complex interplay of demand and supply factors affecting the HDPE market.
APAC
In Q3 2024, High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) prices in the APAC region exhibited a declining trend, highlighting a challenging market environment. This downtrend was influenced by weakened demand across key downstream sectors, including packaging, construction, and automotive industries. High supply levels further pressured the market, as sluggish demand and cautious buying behavior among importers exacerbated the situation. The easing of feedstock Ethylene prices and fluctuations in Crude oil costs also contributed to the overall decline in HDPE prices, impacting market dynamics throughout the quarter. Moreover, Typhoon Yagi disrupted supply chains across Asia, particularly affecting southern China and Vietnam, exacerbating logistical difficulties. The super typhoon wreaked havoc on northern Vietnam and caused heavy rains across southern China, leading to delays in ocean logistics out of Haiphong, vessel hold-ups in the region, and container terminal shutdowns in Hong Kong. Severe weather across East Asian ports intensified congestion at Chinese ports, with waiting times at key ports like Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao, and Yantian due to vessel bunching, further straining the supply chain. Japan, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes, with a noticeable drop compared to the same period last year. By the end of the quarter, HDPE Blowmolding Grade FOB Tokyo prices showed a decrease of 1.1% in September compared to the previous month, emphasizing the prevailing negative pricing sentiment in the region. This decline underscored the broader challenges facing the APAC HDPE market, marked by oversupply and weakened downstream demand, which collectively pressured prices downward throughout the quarter.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in Europe experienced a notable upward trend in prices, driven by several key factors. The increasing costs of feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha significantly impacted production expenses, exerting substantial cost pressures on HDPE products. Further, fluctuations in crude oil prices further influenced market dynamics, adding to the complexity of pricing strategies. Geopolitical tensions in the region contributed to supply constraints, while port congestions restricted the availability of various HDPE grades, exacerbating the price surge. Moreover, the overall supply of HDPE tightened considerably, particularly in September, as the manufacturing sector faced a sharp decline. This decline was characterized by significant reductions in new orders, purchasing activities, and employment levels, further straining supply chains. In the UK, the most pronounced price fluctuations were observed, with prices showing a consistent upward trajectory compared to the previous quarter. For instance, the price of HDPE Injection FD in West Yorkshire surged by 3.1% in August, followed by a modest increase of 0.6% in September, indicating a stable and favorable pricing environment throughout the quarter.
MEA
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the MEA region experienced a notable decline in prices, influenced by several critical factors. The significant decrease can be primarily attributed to a weakened global economic outlook, leading to subdued demand from downstream sectors such as construction, packaging, and automotive industries. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions further impacted market sentiment, contributing to uncertainty among buyers and suppliers. The easing price trajectory of feedstock Ethylene, coupled with fluctuating Crude oil prices, played a crucial role in driving HDPE prices lower throughout the quarter. In the UAE, the market saw the most significant price adjustments compared to other countries in the region, reflecting local market dynamics. The UAE experienced a consistent decrease in HDPE prices, mirroring the broader trend across the MEA region. This decline, in comparison to the same quarter last year, highlighted the challenging conditions faced by the industry. By the end of the quarter, HDPE prices in Jebel Ali, UAE, reflected a 0.4% decrease from the previous month, signaling the culmination of the downward pricing environment and underscoring the persistent pressures impacting the HDPE market in the region.
South America
In Q3 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in South America displayed a mixed trend, with prices initially rising before declining for the remainder of the quarter, ultimately resulting in a bearish outlook. Several factors influenced this trend, including ample supply levels, subdued demand from key downstream industries like packaging and construction, and lower costs of imported materials from major markets. Further, the easing of feedstock Ethylene prices reduced cost pressures, contributing to the decline in HDPE prices as imported material prices softened. The market also faced logistical and production challenges due to weather-related disruptions, further affecting pricing dynamics throughout the region. Brazil, in particular, saw the most notable price adjustments, with a consistent downward trend throughout the quarter as the market struggled with weak demand and abundant supply. By the end of the quarter, HDPE Blow Molding Grade CFR Santos in Brazil registered a 0.5% decrease in September compared to the previous month, highlighting the negative sentiment prevailing in the market. This trend underscored the impact of supply-demand imbalances and external factors such as logistics and feedstock fluctuations on the South American HDPE market in Q3 2024.
FAQs
1. Who are the top HDPE producers in the United States?
Major HDPE producers in the U.S. include ExxonMobil, Dow, LyondellBasell, and Chevron Phillips Chemical. These companies play a key role in maintaining domestic supply and also drive export volumes across Latin America and Europe.
2. What are the primary applications of HDPE in emerging Asian markets?
In Southeast Asia, HDPE is primarily used in rigid packaging, piping systems, woven sacks, and film applications. However, demand in Q2 2025 remained weak due to inflationary pressures, excess inventory, and cautious downstream buying behavior.
3. What is the expected HDPE price trend for Q3 2025 in Europe?
The outlook remains bearish due to persistent oversupply, weak construction and packaging demand, and continued influx of low-cost imports. Unless supply tightens or economic activity rebounds, downward pressure on prices may persist.
4. How is HDPE demand evolving in Saudi Arabia under Vision 2030?
While downstream demand remains soft overall, government-led infrastructure and utility projects under Vision 2030 are offering limited support. The HDPE market saw slightly improved sentiment in July 2025, though project delays and cautious procurement continue to cap growth.
