For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In USA, High Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 7.53% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting supply overhang and weak demand.
• The average High Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was USD 999.00/MT, reflecting subdued spot activity.
• High Density Polyethylene Spot Price remained pressured by inventory builds and restocking, leaving Price Index range-bound.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Forecast indicates mild declines near-term as exports soften and domestic buying remains cautious.
• High Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend benefited from low ethane costs, supporting producer margins despite weak demand.
• High Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook points to muted converter purchases while the Price Index awaits restocking.
• Inventory accumulation at Gulf terminals and export allocations constrained spot availability, pressuring domestic offers and trading activity.
• Major Gulf Coast plants operated near margin rates, sustaining flows but limiting any rapid spot market tightening.
Why did the price of High Density Polyethylene change in December 2025 in North America?
• Ample domestic production and subdued converter buying led to inventory builds and downward price pressure.
• Low ethane feedstock costs maintained production margins, reducing incentives for suppliers to cut output significantly.
• Calm freight and cross-border exports kept market flows steady, limiting any short-term scarcity-driven rallies during December.
APAC
• In Japan, the High Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 5.09% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weaker exports.
• The average High Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 870.67/MT, reflecting balance.
• High Density Polyethylene Spot Price remained range-bound as cracker runs and Tokyo port flows persisted.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Forecast shows near-term softness due to comfortable inventories and muted restocking.
• High Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend eased as naphtha and ethylene softened, lowering cash costs.
• High Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook remains subdued as FMCG and industrial procurement slow, buyers tighten.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Index weakness reflected abundant domestic output and restrained restocking across buyers.
• Inventory accumulation at warehousing pressured spot trading while exporters used weak yen to sustain shipments.
Why did the price of High Density Polyethylene change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Balanced domestic production and smooth Tokyo logistics maintained supply, preventing price recovery despite weak demand.
• Lower naphtha and ethylene feedstock costs reduced cash costs, supporting neutral prices amid limited restocking.
• Moderate exporter competitiveness from a weak yen sustained outbound shipments, capping domestic price appreciation thereby.
Europe
• In Germany, the High Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 11.95% quarter-over-quarter, driven by oversupply and weak demand.
• The average High Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 1053.33/MT as reported by dataset.
• High Density Polyethylene Spot Price assessments softened while the High Density Polyethylene Price Index reflected converter destocking.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Forecast indicates modest near-term softness as inventories and import competition keep upward moves constrained.
• High Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend remained muted with lower ethylene but higher LNG-linked electricity pressures.
• High Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook is subdued for packaging and construction, while sustainability mandates alter grade demand.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Index pressure persisted as port inventories built and export enquiries remained limited.
• Unplanned outages were minimal, and steady cracker operations sustained flows intensifying High Density Polyethylene supply overhang.
Why did the price of High Density Polyethylene change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Abundant imports from Middle East and consistent domestic polymer output raised inventories, weakening December High Density Polyethylene prices.
• Ethylene feedstock eased modestly, yet elevated LNG-linked electricity kept production margins constrained, limiting any price support.
• Hamburg port congestion and rerouted land-rail logistics accumulated warehoused stocks, reducing immediate buying urgency across northwest Europe.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the High Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 4.36% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting surplus.
• The average High Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 818.67/MT, remaining stable.
• High Density Polyethylene Spot Price remained quiet while Price Index reflected balanced domestic supply.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Forecast indicates mild downside risk as inventories remain sufficient through December.
• High Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend benefited from lower ethane prices, slightly improving producer margins.
• High Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook subdued as converters destock and municipal tenders shift volumes away.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Index movements mirrored high run-rates, limited import exposure and discounted offers.
• Balanced inventories, smooth logistics and steady plant operations kept High Density Polyethylene Price Index range-bound.
Why did the price of High Density Polyethylene change in December 2025 in MEA?
• Abundant domestic run-rates maintained supply, notably reducing seller urgency and pressuring spot discussions in December.
• Muted downstream purchasing and converter destocking lowered offtake, amplifying negative momentum on FOB Al Jubail.
• Lower ethane costs eased production costs, but balanced exports and logistics dampened upward price response.
South America
• In Brazil, the High Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 11.28% quarter-over-quarter, driven by imports.
• The average High Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 852.00/MT, reflecting weak demand.
• High Density Polyethylene Spot Price remained supported by constrained domestic spot availability and elevated Atlantic freight premiums.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Forecast signals gains January as inventories tighten and converters rebuild seasonal stocks.
• High Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend rose with firmer naphtha and ethylene feedstock, lifting domestic cost pass-through.
• High Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook remains muted for packaging converters but supported by agribusiness irrigation pipe orders.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Index showed quarter lows, pressured by steady import flows and balanced distributor inventories.
• Santos port reliability and maintenance at local units tightened offers, altering importer behavior and short-term buying patterns.
Why did the price of High Density Polyethylene change in December 2025 in South America?
• Abundant imports and smooth Santos port operations kept supply ample, pressuring prices through quarter-end December.
• Firmer naphtha and higher freight elevated production cost pass-through, supporting spot offers and limiting declines.
• Downstream demand remained mixed; packaging subdued while agribusiness pipe orders provided selective upward support recently.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the High Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 3.6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting subdued demand and ample supply.
• The average High Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 1110.33/MT, reflecting balanced supply conditions.
• Persistent ample inventory pressured the High Density Polyethylene Spot Price while domestic orders remained cautious.
• Export challenges and tariffs weakened overseas demand, affecting the High Density Polyethylene Price Index and flows.
• Upstream ethylene softness altered the High Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend, reducing cracker run economics marginally.
• Manufacturer utilization remained elevated sustaining supply, contrasting with weak downstream demand and the High Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook.
• Short-term HDPE offers influenced the regional High Density Polyethylene Price Forecast, indicating modest volatility into early autumn.
• Logistics delays and inland congestion elevated landed costs, pressuring netbacks despite a neutral High Density Polyethylene Price Index
Why did the price of High Density Polyethylene change in September 2025 in North America?
• Balanced domestic output and stable operating rates increased supply, offsetting any ethylene cost declines materially.
• Weak export demand amid tariffs and freight volatility redirected volumes domestically, exacerbating local inventory accumulation pressures.
• Buyers remained cautious with procurement due to economic uncertainty, reducing purchasing ahead of anticipated producer offers.
APAC
• In Japan, the High Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 10.3% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting export weakness.
• The average High Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 1822.00/MT, indicating stability.
• High Density Polyethylene Spot Price remained pressured amid ample domestic feedstock and weaker export arbitrage.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Forecast signals range-bound movement as inventories balance and buyers stay cautious.
• High Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend shows modest upward pressure as naphtha stability offsets increases.
• High Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook remains muted for construction while packaging and automotive provide support.
• Inventory draws were limited, and High Density Polyethylene Price Index reflected conservative distributor stocking patterns.
• Export demand softness and regional capacity additions constrained offers, keeping market engagement cautious, inventories balanced.
Why did the price of High Density Polyethylene change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Ample domestic feedstock and steady cracker output expanded supply, exerting downward pressure on export parity.
• Subdued downstream demand and cautious converter procurement limited restocking, damping spot market activity and pricing.
• Logistics and currency shifts raised costs moderately, but stable port operations prevented major supply disruptions.
Europe
• In Germany, the High Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 3.62% quarter-over-quarter, tightening feedstock availability.
• The average High Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 1178.67/MT delivered domestically.
• High Density Polyethylene Spot Price eased amid ample inventories and steady cracker output, pressuring market.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Forecast signals recovery supported by seasonal packaging demand and constrained exports.
• High Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend softened following ethylene price declines, reducing producer margin pressure.
• High Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook stays muted; weak construction and packaging shift to recycled materials.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Index volatility rose as port disruptions and inland logistics affected delivered costs.
• Rising inventories and steady cracker output lengthened days-of-supply, pressuring export demand and domestic producer margins.
Why did the price of High Density Polyethylene change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Sustained ethylene output and full cracker runs increased supply, reducing domestic HDPE Price Index support.
• Falling ethylene feedstock prices eased Production Cost Trend, letting sellers lower HDPE Spot Price offers.
• Hamburg port disruptions constrained deliveries, raising logistical costs and pressuring the Price Index further downward.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the High Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 6.41% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting demand.
• The average High Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 866.00/MT reported FOB
• High Density Polyethylene Spot Price remained range-bound, Price Index stability underpinned by production and exports.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Forecast signals modest volatility from seasonal restocking and fluctuating export interest
• High Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend shows steady ethylene feedstock and tariffs, limiting cost pressure.
• High Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook steady from construction and packaging, subdued converter restocking limits upside.
• The High Density Polyethylene Price Index was capped by abundant domestic supply and port logistics.
• Inventory levels and limited imports restrained price recovery despite occasional logistics cost increases and trimming.
Why did the price of High Density Polyethylene change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Uninterrupted cracker operations and full plant run-rates increased domestic availability, weighing on headline Price Index.
• Stable ethylene feedstock and electricity tariffs contained Production Cost Trend, preventing significant upward pressure overall
• Muted export orders and cautious downstream buying reduced demand, weakening regional spot price pressure further
South America
• In Brazil, the High Density Polyethylene Price Index fell 3.32% quarter-over-quarter, driven by weak demand.
• The average High Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 960.33/MT, reported locally.
• High Density Polyethylene Spot Price registered declines as distributor inventories rose and converter buying softened.
• High Density Polyethylene Price Forecast: range-bound movement as imports and domestic output balance, limiting rallies.
• High Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend subdued as stable naphtha and hydropower limited upstream cost.
• High Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook is muted with packaging and infrastructure pockets offsetting weaker purchasing.
• Rising distributor destocking and completed pesticide season pressured the High Density Polyethylene Price Index sharply.
• Port operations and freight declines reduced import costs, while anti-dumping duties intermittently influenced sourcing decisions.
Why did the price of High Density Polyethylene change in September 2025 in South America?
• Uninterrupted resin output and import arrivals increased available supply, pressuring spot prices and reducing bids.
• Pesticide season completion and lean converter procurement reduced offtake, amplifying downward movement in Price Index.
• Stable naphtha and hydropower costs removed upstream support, while anti-dumping actions intermittently constrained cheaper imports.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The HDPE Price in the United States increased by 1% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, driven by stronger domestic procurement and rising feedstock costs, particularly ethylene.
• The HDPE Price Index remained mostly stable throughout the quarter but showed an upward trend in late June due to tighter supply conditions, stronger buying interest in packaging and industrial applications, and improved export momentum.
• Domestic supply remained steady, supported by uninterrupted plant operations and proactive stockpiling amid tariff-related uncertainties. Export volumes initially surged ahead of retaliatory duties but dropped sharply in April before partially recovering through rerouting to Europe and Latin America.
• Key downstream sectors presented mixed dynamics: packaging demand held firm, institutional construction activity improved, but overall construction spending declined. Automotive demand weakened, further impacting consumption patterns.
Why did the price of HDPE change in July 2025 in the US?
• HDPE Price increased due to higher ethylene feedstock costs, tighter domestic availability, and firm demand from packaging and industrial sectors. Stronger export interest and limited inventory restocking further supported the upward movement in the HDPE Price Index.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend showed an upward trajectory, influenced by increased raw material and energy costs, along with persistent inflationary signals in producer inputs. Despite this, stable domestic operations prevented supply disruptions.
• The HDPE Demand Outlook remained moderately positive, with steady consumption in packaging, partial recovery in institutional construction, and support from employment gains in the building sector. However, ongoing weakness in automotive sales and private construction capped broader demand acceleration.
APAC
• The HDPE Price in Indonesia declined by 11% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, exerting significant downward pressure on the Price Index across the Southeast Asian market.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend softened due to falling global crude and ethylene prices, reduced freight rates, and stable operating rates among regional producers.
• Ample supply—driven by redirected U.S. shipments, steady inflows from the Middle East and China, and subdued logistics costs—outpaced the sluggish offtake from packaging, automotive, and construction sectors.
• The HDPE Demand Outlook remained weak, as buyers adopted a cautious, wait-and-watch approach amid economic uncertainty, inventory buildup, and inflationary pressures that did not translate into stronger consumption.
Why did the price of HDPE change in July 2025 in Asia?
• The HDPE Price in Indonesia decreased in July 2025 due to persistent oversupply, weaker downstream demand, and cheaper imported alternatives.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend remained low, aided by stable regional production, softening freight rates, and minimal cost pressures from raw materials.
• The HDPE Demand Outlook stayed muted, particularly in construction and packaging sectors, where buyers limited procurement to essential volumes amid uncertainty over tariffs and export prospects.
• The HDPE Price Forecast suggests continued downward pressure unless demand fundamentals improve or supply tightens, which currently seems unlikely given ongoing regional competition and macroeconomic headwinds.
Europe
• The HDPE Price in Germany exhibited a mixed trend over Q2 2025, with early-quarter gains driven by tight supply conditions stemming from plant maintenance and limited import volumes.
• Despite weak demand across sectors like packaging, construction, and automotive, initial upward pressure was sustained due to lower local availability and cautious optimism among suppliers.
• However, HDPE Price Index declined toward the end of the quarter as post-holiday sluggishness, weak downstream demand, and an influx of competitively priced imports, particularly from the U.S. and Turkey, weighed heavily on prices.
• HDPE producers were unable to pass on costs despite a decline in ethylene feedstock prices, as ample domestic inventory and tepid trading volumes curtailed their pricing power.
Why did the price of HDPE change in July 2025 in Europe?
• In July 2025, the HDPE Price Index declined due to an oversupplied domestic market, weak downstream demand, and competitive import volumes.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend was lower, influenced by declining ethylene prices, but producers struggled to retain margins.
• The HDPE Demand Outlook remained soft, especially in construction and packaging, with only mild support from the automotive sector.
• The HDPE Price Forecast indicates that unless demand revives or supply tightens, bearish pressure may persist across the region.
MEA
• The HDPE Price in Saudi Arabia decreased by 15% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, leading to a consistent downward adjustment in the Price Index throughout the quarter.
• The price decline was driven by a mix of ample supply, muted export interest, and restrained domestic buying amid global economic caution. Despite high operating rates and stable inventory levels, downstream offtake remained subdued across packaging, construction, and consumer goods.
• Export demand weakened further due to evolving trade dynamics, including new U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from China, which disrupted regional trade flows. Domestic demand also softened during the Eid holiday season, contributing to low spot activity.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend stayed largely stable, supported by low feedstock ethylene and naphtha prices, allowing producers to maintain output levels without significant margin pressure.
• The HDPE Demand Outlook remains cautious, with modest support expected from ongoing infrastructure initiatives under Vision 2030, though actual offtake is limited due to project delays and resource constraints.
Why did the price of HDPE change in July 2025 in MEA?
• The HDPE Price remained stable in early July 2025, diverging from the prior sharp downtrend. This shift was due to balanced production and steady—though unaggressive—demand from sectors like construction and utilities.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend experienced minor upward pressure from feedstock ethylene costs but continued supply availability and stable cracker operations kept price movement in check.
• The HDPE Demand Outlook showed slight improvement, particularly from government-led infrastructure efforts, helping to sustain market equilibrium.
• Trading activity remained range-bound as buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, anticipating clearer signals from global macroeconomic developments and regional procurement cycles.
South America
• The HDPE Price in Brazil declined by 18% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reflected in a notable dip in the Price Index.
• Weak domestic demand continued to weigh heavily on the market, as buyers focused on short-term procurement and avoided excess inventory amid economic uncertainty.
• Although import volumes from the United States remained steady, Brazilian buyers grew cautious following new U.S. tariff announcements, leading to reduced reliance on U.S.-origin cargoes.
• Despite consistent import flows and stable domestic supply, the HDPE Demand Outlook remained tepid, especially in the automotive sector, although packaging and construction provided a modest cushion.
Why did the HDPE price change in July 2025 in South America?
• In July 2025, the HDPE Spot Price in Brazil showed signs of stability following the previous quarter’s downturn. The price shift was primarily driven by a cautiously optimistic demand recovery from construction and packaging sectors.
• The HDPE Production Cost Trend remained manageable, aided by slower inflation and steady import pricing.
• However, the HDPE Demand Outlook stayed mixed, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach amid ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and trade realignments.
• The HDPE Price Forecast suggests only mild upward pressure unless downstream recovery strengthens across key sectors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market witnessed a varied pricing trend, driven by rising demand, weather-related supply disruptions, and higher feedstock costs. The prices increased for the initial two months, however, declined at the end of the quarter. A surge in demand across packaging, construction, and automotive sectors led to a price increase in the USA, further supported by a rise in ethylene prices. Severe winter conditions caused by Winter Storm Enzo disrupted petrochemical production in Texas and Louisiana, tightening supply and leading producers to halt fresh offers.
Export demand remained strong, with shipments to Europe, Africa, and Latin America pushing prices higher despite muted Asian demand due to the Lunar New Year. While manufacturing activity in the U.S. expanded, inflationary pressures and the looming 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports in March added further uncertainty, prompting aggressive spot buying.
In Mexico, HDPE prices rose by 1% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tighter supply and firming market fundamentals. By the end of Q1, HDPE Blow Moulding Grade CFR Veracruz witnessed a price decline of 6% in March 2025. With ongoing supply constraints, geopolitical uncertainties, and potential tariff impacts, market participants face challenges in securing stable supply and mitigating cost pressures, keeping HDPE prices on an upward trajectory.
APAC
The APAC HDPE market in Q1 2025 experienced fluctuating trends, with prices stabilizing in January and February before declining in March. Despite steady demand in the packaging, construction, and automotive sectors, cautious buyer sentiment and external economic uncertainties kept the market subdued. Rising feedstock ethylene costs and supply disruptions from the Middle East initially supported price stability. However, sluggish demand recovery and competitive global pricing limited any significant upward movement. By March, increased Chinese exports to Southeast Asia and Europe, driven by domestic oversupply and U.S. tariffs, ensured adequate regional HDPE availability. Declining regional freight costs further eased supply pressures, stabilizing inventory levels. Despite steady consumption, weak global demand and geopolitical uncertainties weighed on sentiment, prompting cautious procurement strategies among buyers. HDPE Blow Molding Grade FOB Tokyo (Japan) prices declined by 0.5% in March, marking an overall 2% decrease in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. The downward trend reflects sustained supply availability and hesitant buying activity amid global trade concerns. While Japan’s market remains balanced, future price movements will depend on regional trade policies, energy costs, and macroeconomic stability, posing challenges for market participants navigating shifting demand dynamics.
Europe
The European High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in Q1 2025 faced a continued downturn, with prices declining due to weak demand and stable supply conditions. Despite early signs of market stabilization, sluggish purchasing activity from key sectors such as construction and automotive kept overall sentiment bearish. Buyers remained cautious, avoiding excess stockpiling amid ongoing economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, domestic production remained steady, and reduced reliance on imports helped ease supply-side constraints. Although seasonal demand for agricultural films offered limited support, the broader market struggled to maintain momentum. Feedstock ethylene and upstream naphtha prices showed moderate increases in January, raising production costs, but this did not translate into sustained price hikes for HDPE due to lackluster demand. Additionally, the weakening euro made imports costlier, yet declining global freight rates offset some of the impact. By the end of Q1, HDPE Injection FD West Yorkshire (UK) prices declined by 2% compared to Q4 2024, with a quarter-ending price drop of 0.2% in March 2025. The ongoing challenges of low construction activity, slow automotive sales, and persistent inflation kept the market under pressure. Without a significant demand recovery, HDPE prices are expected to remain subdued in the near term.
MEA
The HDPE market in the MEA region experienced mixed trends in Q1 2025, with prices remaining stable in January, rising in February due to increased restocking ahead of Ramadan, and declining in March as demand softened. Despite steady domestic consumption across packaging and construction sectors, weak overseas demand, particularly from Asia and Turkey, kept price momentum limited. Supply conditions remained balanced, with Middle Eastern producers maintaining stable production levels, though planned maintenance in February briefly tightened availability. Feedstock ethylene prices fluctuated throughout the quarter, briefly increasing production costs in February, but this did not lead to sustained price hikes due to demand constraints. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties, including disruptions in major shipping routes, added further complexity to trade flows. By March, market sentiment weakened as buyers postponed purchases until after Ramadan, leading to a quarter-ending decline. HDPE Film Grade FOB Jebel Ali (UAE) prices dropped by 1.2% in March, contributing to an overall 1% decrease in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. With demand-side weakness prevailing and economic uncertainties persisting, the MEA HDPE market faces continued pressure in the near term.
South America
The South American HDPE market showed a mixed performance in Q1 2025, with prices rising in January and February due to increased import costs and tightening supply, but declining in March as global pricing pressures mounted. Supply constraints from the U.S., driven by severe weather and production disruptions, limited export availability early in the quarter, leading to price hikes in Brazil. Strong domestic demand across the packaging, construction, and automotive sectors further supported this upward trend. However, by March, lower-cost imports and softened global demand caused a shift in market dynamics. A decline in U.S. HDPE prices, driven by weaker domestic consumption and lower ethylene costs, translated to reduced import prices in Brazil. Additionally, improved supply chain conditions and decreasing freight rates contributed to a downward price adjustment. While the automotive sector remained resilient, fluctuations in construction activity tempered overall demand growth. As a result, HDPE Blow Molding Grade CFR Santos (Brazil) prices fell by 6.2% in March, marking a quarterly decline despite earlier gains. Compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 prices increased by 1% overall but ended on a weaker note. The market faces ongoing uncertainty, with price volatility influenced by shifting trade flows, fluctuating feedstock costs, and external economic pressures.
