For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The HDPE market has shown a downward trend throughout Q2 in North America as the demand from downstream packaging and construction industries has been observed to be sluggish. The ample product availability in the market has kept the prices low. Further, the primary reason for unhealthy buying conditions has been the slowdown in the economic conditions post the US banking crisis and persistent inflation with fluctuating market dynamics. Furthermore, upstream Ethylene has also shown a downward trajectory which influenced HDPE prices. The price of HDPE in Mexico in April 2023 was recorded to be USD 1393/MT Blowmolding CFR Veracruz, with a decline of 1%. Similarly, a price decline of 3% and 5% was seen in May and June, respectively, as the prices for HDPE in May reached USD 1349/MT and USD 1284/MT Blowmolding grade CFR Veracruz in June. Furthermore, a plant shut down for feedstock Ethylene was reported as Chevron Philips Chemical, located in Cedar Bayou, Texas, in the USA, had an unplanned shutdown on 14th June 2023. The plant has a capacity of 1.7235 million mt/year. However, the product's price did not report any major impact of plant shutdown.
APAC
The surplus availability of HDPE with subdued demand from downstream packaging and construction industries has led the prices to decline in the Asia- Pacific region in Q2 in 2023. The upstream Ethylene and Crude oil decreased prices have further contributed to the slump in prices of HDPE. Furthermore, the reduced demand was seen on account of the economic downturn in the global market caused due to Russia- Ukraine war and weaker market growth in China post-lockdown restrictions. The HDPE Film grade CFR Jurong prices in Singapore were reported to be USD 1075/MT in April, USD 1065/MT in May, and USD 1011/MT in June. Moreover, three HDPE plant shutdowns were reported in China. Lianyungang Petrochemical, located in Xuwei in China, with a 400,000 mt/year plant capacity, was shut down on 16th June 2023 for a maintenance turnaround. Another HDPE plant, Sinopec Zhenhai Refining and Chemical (ZRCC) in Ningbo (China), with a plant capacity of 300,000 mt/year, was shut down for maintenance turnaround from March 2023 to early June 2023. HDPE plant PetroChina Daqing in China, with a 550,000 mt/year plant capacity, was shut down on 10th June 2023 for 45 days.
Europe
During the second quarter of the year 2023, HDPE prices witnessed bearish market sentiments in the European nations. The primary driver for the decline was the lackluster demand from downstream construction industries. The Russia-Ukraine war and global economic tensions have led to a decline in the economy resulting in inflation. Further, the decreasing prices of upstream Ethylene and Crude oil have influenced the prices of HDPE. The HDPE prices in the UK fell from USD 1460/MT in April to USD 1397/MT for Injection Molding FD West Yorkshire. The upstream Ethylene plant shutdown was reported in Germany. BASF plant was shut down for two weeks on 9th June 2023 for a maintenance turnaround. The plant is located in Ludwigshafen in, Germany, and has a plant capacity of 620,000 mt/year. The inflation rate in the Euro area, as per Eurostat, has been 7.0% in April, 6.1% in May, and estimated to be 5.5% in June with respect to the same month in the previous year. Although inflation rates declined, the recession affected the economy and market dynamics.
MEA
The Middle East Asia region witnessed a drop in HDPE prices in Q2 of 2023. The major reason that caused a drop in HDPE price movement was the adequate availability of the stock amidst stagnancy in the production costs coupled with ease in the Crude oil prices. Further, geopolitical uncertainties have placed pressure on the global demand for HDPE from downstream packaging and construction industries in Middle East countries. Furthermore, the upstream Ethylene prices have been declining throughout the second quarter. Injection grade FOB Al Jubail prices in Saudi Arabia were quoted as USD 1024/mt in April, USD 998/mt in May, and USD 962/mt in June. A similar declining price trend was seen in UAE, where the HDPE Injection molding grade FOB Al Jubail prices were recorded as USD 986/mt in April, USD 968/mt in May, and USD 937/mt in June. HDPE plant shutdown was reported as Sabica Petrokemya was shut down from early May 2023 to Early June 2023 for a maintenance turnaround. The plant is located in Saudi Arabia and has a 400,000 mt/year capacity.
The HDPE prices are the result of limited stock availability in the US market during the quarter ending March 2023. The price of HDPE maintained an upward price trend in March 2023, owing to gradually growing consumer confidence in the domestic construction sector and other competitive industries in the United States. The crippled stock availability in warehouses towards the conclusion of Q1 2023 as Formosa Plastics chose a maintenance shutdown in mid-March 2023 this month. Meanwhile, foreign HDPE queries increased, influencing commodity price movement in the face of supply tightness. Moreover, the steep rise in crude oil prices in the global market also elevated the input cost pressure on the enterprises at the termination of March, lifting the HDPE prices in the US market.
The HDPE prices have not witnessed a significant change in the first quarter of 2023 due to the slowness in the downstream construction and packaging industry demand in the quarter ending March 2023 and limited stock availability. In China, Heilongjiang Haiguo Longyou at Daqing and Sinopec Yanshan Petrochemical at Beijiang of China underwent a maintenance shutdown in the mid-Q1 and affected the production capacity of HDPE this quarter. On the other side, with a surge in crude oil prices at the termination of Q1 of 2023, the HDPE market felt supply tightness and elevated the commodity prices to pass the cost pressure to the consumers in the Asian market. Conclusively, the reduction in the demand-supply gap caused overall stagnancy in the price trend of the Asian HDPE throughout the quarter.
The German HDPE price trend continued to fall in the March 2023 quarter, with recent price declines in March 2023. Prices dropped in Germany as a result of weak demand from the downstream construction sector and a declining property market in the region. The surge in interest rates, combined with the cost-of-living crisis, put HDPE consumers in financial difficulty. High inflation, paired with slow economic growth, restricted trading activity to basic needs only in the European region. Furthermore, market participants maintained a negative price momentum in the first quarter due to weak demand fundamentals and muted global spot activity in the face of competitive market conditions and large stock levels.
