For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Hot Rolled Coil Price Index fell by 3.05% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting demand.
• The average Hot Rolled Coil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1100.67/MT, reported delivered.
• Hot Rolled Coil Spot Price stayed range bound as mills ran and service centers destocked.
• Hot Rolled Coil Price Forecast indicates September recovery driven by tightening lead times and restocking.
• Hot Rolled Coil Production Cost Trend remained stable; scrap and energy prices flattened, preserving margins.
• Hot Rolled Coil Demand Outlook remains subdued for construction and nonresidential sectors despite automotive improvement.
• Tariffs, import spreads and service center metrics kept the Hot Rolled Coil Price Index supported.
• Elevated inventories and muted export demand pressured offers, prompting mill list-price adjustments to defend margins.
Why did the price of Hot Rolled Coil change in September 2025 in North America?
• High service center inventories and weak construction and automotive buying reduced spot purchasing and momentum.
• Stable scrap and energy costs limited cost-push while tariffs and import dynamics provided floor support.
• Uninterrupted mill runs and smooth logistics sustained supply as restocking improved volumes in September.
APAC
• In Malaysia, the Hot Rolled Coil Price Index rose by 5.6% quarter-over-quarter, driven by logistics.
• The average Hot Rolled Coil price for the quarter was approximately USD 568.33/MT, import-parity observed
• Hot Rolled Coil Spot Price fluctuated on freight variability while Chinese export offers remained unchanged.
• Hot Rolled Coil Price Forecast anticipates range-bound movement as speculative futures and policy measures influence.
• Hot Rolled Coil Production Cost Trend rose with iron ore gains; coke and energy subdued.
• Hot Rolled Coil Demand Outlook shows construction support offsetting weak automotive and cold-rolled offtake persistently.
• Hot Rolled Coil Price Index showed precautionary restocking driven by speculative futures and anti-dumping signals.
• Chinese export volumes and warehouse overhang pressured offers, while galvanizer restocking supported Malaysian import demand
Why did the price of Hot Rolled Coil change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Rising iron ore cost and tighter feedstock availability pushed offers higher despite abundant Chinese inventories.
• Freight reductions lowered delivered costs, partially offsetting upstream cost increases, moderating net price movement overall.
• Speculative futures and precautionary buying amid anti-dumping measures supported prices despite weak real end-user demand.
Europe
• In Germany, the Hot Rolled Coil Price Index fell by 6.15% quarter-over-quarter, and weak demand.
• The average Hot Rolled Coil price for the quarter was approximately USD 773.33/MT based on FD-Ruhr.
• Tight lead times kept Hot Rolled Coil Spot Price steady, limiting volatility across Price Index.
• Hot Rolled Coil Price Forecast expects modest recovery, constrained by inventories and weak downstream demand.
• Stable energy tariffs kept Hot Rolled Coil Production Cost Trend subdued, narrowing margins, avoiding shocks.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Demand Outlook remained tepid, with automotive and construction buyers remaining cautious.
• Aggressive Asian offers and quota shifts increased import pressure, elevating inventories and softening Price Index.
• Domestic mills operated with few outages, limiting supply shocks to Hot Rolled Coil Price Index.
Why did the price of Hot Rolled Coil change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Ample mill output and weak downstream demand reduced offtake, exerting downward pressure on prices regionally.
• Stable energy costs limited cost-push, while customs delays and quota congestion disrupted hot-rolled imports regionally.
• Aggressive Asian offers, Section 232 tariff spillovers and cautious restocking collectively weighed on September dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Hot Rolled Coil Price Index in the USA increased by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, supported by protective tariffs, reduced imports, and deliberate supply-side control from domestic mills.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Production Cost Trend remained steady, with stable scrap prices and cost-managed melt shop operations across key Midwestern mills.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Demand Outlook showed modest improvement driven by restocking in automotive and energy-related sectors. Construction activity remained soft but showed signs of stabilization by June.
• Import volumes stayed low as Section 232-related restrictions and logistics challenges raised landed costs from offshore origins.
Why did the price of Hot Rolled Coil change in July 2025 in North America?
• The Hot Rolled Coil Spot Price in July 2025 is estimated to have held firm as mills retained strong offer levels while buyers approached the market cautiously.
• Support from tariff enforcement and limited foreign competition prevented a correction, even amid patchy downstream demand.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Price Forecast suggests a possible rollover trend into Q3 unless construction activity improves notably.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Demand Outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential upside if restocking gains momentum in the automotive supply chain.
APAC
• The Hot Rolled Coil Price Index in Malaysia declined by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, pressured by weaker domestic activity and low-cost Chinese imports.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Production Cost Trend softened slightly due to lower regional HRC input offers and marginal freight savings.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Demand Outlook weakened, especially in the downstream manufacturing and construction sectors. Buyers preferred to delay orders amid soft sentiment.
• Import offers from China remained aggressive, keeping pressure on local producers and limiting recovery potential.
Why did the price of Hot Rolled Coil change in July 2025 in Malaysia?
• The Hot Rolled Coil Spot Price in July 2025 likely declined marginally as buyers remained hesitant amid high inventories and muted industrial activity.
• Local mills struggled to raise offers despite freight cost stabilization, given competition from discounted Chinese cargoes.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Price Forecast suggests further downside risk if domestic demand does not recover by early Q3.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Demand Outlook remains weak, with minimal momentum in construction and no restocking incentive from OEMs.
Europe
• The Hot Rolled Coil Price Index in Germany increased by 7.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, supported by constrained imports and cost-driven price hikes from EU mills.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Production Cost Trend remained elevated due to energy inputs and tightening raw material supply conditions.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Demand Outlook improved slightly in May and June, with orders from machinery, automotive, and renewables sectors showing stability.
• Import availability from Turkey and India declined, allowing domestic mills to regain price control.
Why did the price of Hot Rolled Coil change in July 2025 in Germany?
• The Hot Rolled Coil Spot Price in July 2025 likely held firm as mills maintained elevated offer levels amid limited foreign competition.
• Automotive and machinery OEMs continued to procure steadily, but construction demand was seasonally flat.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Price Forecast points to potential upside if Turkish supply tightens further or safeguard policies are extended.
• The Hot Rolled Coil Demand Outlook holds moderate strength across industrial hubs in Germany, Austria, and the Benelux region.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Price Index in North America region settled in Q1 2025 at USD 1212/MT for HR Coil (1.5 mm) DEL Illinois, sustaining stability in comparison to Q4 2024 despite notable intra-quarter fluctuations.
• Why did the price of Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) change in April 2025? During April 2025, prices of the product inclined moderately, fuelled by consistent domestic demand and firm construction and automotive sector activity.
• January began with stable prices but saw mid-month declines due to buyer hesitation and regulatory concerns.
• Recovery began in late January, and February recorded a 2.5% price gain, followed by another 5% jump driven by construction recovery and auto sector growth.
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Spot Price was lifted by strong market sentiment and inventory restocking activity by steel buyers.
• Rising raw material prices and tariff impacts added upward pressure to the Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Production Cost Trend, which is expected to stay elevated into Q2.
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Demand Outlook remains firm, supported by public infrastructure spending and resilient industrial activity.
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Price Forecast for Q2 2025 indicates a cautiously bullish trend, assuming stable macroeconomic conditions and manageable import pressures.
Europe
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Price Index in Europe ended Q1 2025 at USD 806/MT for HR Coil (1.5 mm) FD-Ruhr, Germany—marking an increase from Q4 2024 and signaling mild recovery momentum.
• Why did the price of Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) change in April 2025? During April 2025, prices were expected to remain stable or slightly increase, driven by controlled supply, limited imports, and tentative demand recovery.
• January showed mixed movement, with early stability followed by a 1% price drop mid-month due to buyer caution and economic uncertainties.
• A 2.9% increase in February was observed, supported by improved activity in the automotive and construction sectors, especially in Northern Europe.
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Spot Price saw gradual upward movement as trading volumes rose and buyers restocked amid limited import offers.
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Production Cost Trend was moderately higher, influenced by regulatory compliance costs and tighter logistics in the EU.
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Demand Outlook remains fragile but shows signs of gradual stabilization with improved sectoral confidence.
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Price Forecast for Q2 is cautiously optimistic, although contingent on economic clarity and regulatory resolution.
APAC
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Price Index in APAC (focused on Malaysia) ended Q1 2025 at USD 558/MT for HR Coil (Q235-1 mm) CFR Klang—showing overall price stability amid volatility.
• Why did the price of Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) change in April 2025? April 2025, prices of the product decrease slightly, driven by subdued end-user demand and competitive import pricing from China.
• January opened with stable pricing influenced by Chinese offers, followed by a 1% increase mid-month as Chinese mill maintenance slowed and supply increased.
• End-January brought a 1% decline, followed by another drop in March of 1.5%, driven by market caution and tariff-related trade uncertainties.
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Spot Price remained under pressure from global trade headwinds and hesitant purchasing behavior.
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Production Cost Trend was relatively flat, though risks remain tied to regional energy and logistics disruptions.
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Demand Outlook is moderately positive, supported by a recovering construction sector but weighed down by weak manufacturing sentiment.
• The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Price Forecast suggests mild downward pressure through April unless supply tightness from major exporters re-emerges.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market in North America during the fourth quarter of 2024 is marked by a cautious recovery amid fluctuating demand conditions and evolving pricing dynamics. Prices have shown an upward trend, increasing notably compared to Q3, as major producers like Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs have adjusted their pricing strategies to reflect improvements in market sentiment. The U.S. manufacturing sector, although still in contraction, has displayed signs of easing, with business sentiment improving, albeit at a slow pace.
Demand in the construction and automotive sectors has been a mixed bag. Construction spending remained steady, supported by job growth in non-residential construction, while the automotive sector benefited from a significant rise in vehicle sales, adding upward pressure on demand for HRC. However, challenges persist, including high interest rates affecting the residential real estate market, leading to a slowdown in housing activity.
Despite a recent boost in production levels, with raw steel output hitting an 11-week high, overall utilization rates reveal that production remains below the year-to-date averages. Seasonal impacts also contributed to a downturn in construction activity during the holidays, which adds to the complexity of the market conditions.
As of late December, the price for HRC (3 mm) DEL in Illinois stands at approximately USD 881/MT. This marks an increase from previous quarters, yet market participants are contending with challenges such as fluctuating supply dynamics and uncertain demand, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments to navigate these evolving conditions.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market in the APAC region faced a complex landscape characterized by declining prices and fluctuating demand. Prices for HRC in China showed a decrease compared to Q3 2024, closing the quarter with HR Coil (Q235-1 mm) priced at around USD 517/MT. This downturn was influenced by a combination of factors, including regional economic recovery disparities and the implementation of anti-dumping measures, signalling a trend toward de-globalization. Throughout November and December, HRC prices initially rose due to strong automotive sector demand; however, weak foreign orders and rising delivery times contributed to overall market instability. The national social inventory of hot-rolled steel fell by 3.72% week-over-week as of early December, reflecting active destocking across East, Central, and South China. Meanwhile, increased production post-maintenance and stable coke prices created a balancing effect. The overall market conditions suggest that participants face challenges from inconsistent demand, inventory fluctuations, and broader economic uncertainties as they navigate the evolving landscape in early 2025.
EUROPE
The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market in Europe is characterized by fluctuating demand conditions and pricing stability, as industry participants navigate economic uncertainties. In the fourth quarter of 2024, HRC prices have seen a slight uptick compared to Q3, reflecting cautious optimism among producers amid ongoing challenges in the construction and automotive sectors. Demand for HRC in Europe has been subdued, particularly within the eurozone construction industry, where October showed a worsening contraction in activity. While new orders in Italy exhibited slight resilience, Germany, France, and other major markets have continued to face stagnant sales. Manufacturing indices indicate that while the pace of contraction in Germany improved slightly in October, the overall outlook remains bleak. Seasonal impacts, including the New Year holiday period, have contributed to reduced purchasing activity, creating a fragile balance between supply and demand. Market participants face challenges such as limited import options, competition from lower-priced European producers, and ongoing uncertainties in global trade policies. Without significant policy support or a rebound in demand, the HRC market in Europe could continue to encounter difficulties as it moves into 2025. Producers are anticipating price recovery as they announce higher offers, though these have yet to gain traction due to cautious buyer sentiment and regulatory hurdles surrounding imports. As of the end of Q4, the price for HR Coil (3 mm) FD-Ruhr in Germany stands at approximately USD 683/MT.
