For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market in North America demonstrated significant volatility, closing the quarter at USD 1212/MT for HR Coil (1.5 mm) DEL Illinois (USA). While prices remained stable compared to Q4 2024, the first quarter was marked by notable price fluctuations driven by rising consumer demand and adjustments from major producers such as Nucor.
Early January saw stable prices influenced by producers' adjustments, but by mid-January, modest declines were observed as buyers adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach amid regulatory uncertainties. Toward the end of January, prices began to recover, driven by increased optimism among steel buyers, with a notable increase of 2.5% in early February.
Demand remained robust, supported by a rebound in construction and a steady increase in auto sales. However, challenges persisted from rising raw material costs and the impact of tariffs on imports from neighbouring countries. By late February and into March, the market saw further price hikes, with a total increase of approximately 5% in February alone, reflecting strong domestic demand. As the quarter concluded, underscoring the market's complexity and the persistent challenges surrounding supply chain dynamics and geopolitical pressures. Overall, while prices showed stability compared to the previous quarter, ongoing volatility continues to characterize the North American HRC market.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market in South America, particularly in Malaysia, closed the quarter at USD 558/MT for HR Coil (Q235-1 mm) CFR Klang, reflecting stable prices compared to Q4 2024 amidst notable volatility. Early January began with stable pricing influenced by Chinese market offers, despite subdued manufacturing activity and limited customer demand. By mid-January, a 1.0% price increase was observed due to reduced maintenance activities in Chinese steel mills that boosted output. However, the end of the month saw a 1% decline in prices as new tariffs on U.S. steel imports introduced broader market uncertainties. In February, minor price increases occurred, aligning with positive developments in the Chinese market, but this was followed by another 1% decrease as caution prevailed in the market. Early March experienced stable prices, yet by mid-March, Malaysian prices dropped by 1.5%, driven by cautious purchasing behaviours among end users. Despite moderate demand bolstered by a recovering construction sector, ongoing pricing pressures from global influences and competitive imports continue to challenge market participants. The quarter-ending price for HR Coil reflects the complex landscape in which stakeholders are operating as they navigate these developments.
EUROPE
In Q1 2025, the Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market in Europe exhibited a positive upward trend, closing the quarter at USD 806/MT for HR Coil (1.5 mm) FD-Ruhr (Germany). This reflects a notable increase compared to Q4 2024, highlighting a gradual recovery in pricing despite a backdrop of subdued demand and persistent market challenges. Early January saw stable prices as manufacturers cautiously navigated a post-holiday market, anticipating a rebound in activity. By mid-month, however, a 1% price decline occurred due to hesitancy among buyers against the backdrop of regulatory challenges and uncertain economic conditions. As the quarter progressed, prices began to rise, driven by increased trading activity and limited import availability, particularly in Northern Europe. A notable 2.9% increase in February was supported by an uptick in demand from key sectors like automotive and construction. Despite optimism among producers, demand remains fragile, affected by regulatory issues and slow confidence in end-user markets. The completion of an EU safeguard review added further complexities, influencing import dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market in North America during the fourth quarter of 2024 is marked by a cautious recovery amid fluctuating demand conditions and evolving pricing dynamics. Prices have shown an upward trend, increasing notably compared to Q3, as major producers like Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs have adjusted their pricing strategies to reflect improvements in market sentiment. The U.S. manufacturing sector, although still in contraction, has displayed signs of easing, with business sentiment improving, albeit at a slow pace.
Demand in the construction and automotive sectors has been a mixed bag. Construction spending remained steady, supported by job growth in non-residential construction, while the automotive sector benefited from a significant rise in vehicle sales, adding upward pressure on demand for HRC. However, challenges persist, including high interest rates affecting the residential real estate market, leading to a slowdown in housing activity.
Despite a recent boost in production levels, with raw steel output hitting an 11-week high, overall utilization rates reveal that production remains below the year-to-date averages. Seasonal impacts also contributed to a downturn in construction activity during the holidays, which adds to the complexity of the market conditions.
As of late December, the price for HRC (3 mm) DEL in Illinois stands at approximately USD 881/MT. This marks an increase from previous quarters, yet market participants are contending with challenges such as fluctuating supply dynamics and uncertain demand, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments to navigate these evolving conditions.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market in the APAC region faced a complex landscape characterized by declining prices and fluctuating demand. Prices for HRC in China showed a decrease compared to Q3 2024, closing the quarter with HR Coil (Q235-1 mm) priced at around USD 517/MT. This downturn was influenced by a combination of factors, including regional economic recovery disparities and the implementation of anti-dumping measures, signalling a trend toward de-globalization. Throughout November and December, HRC prices initially rose due to strong automotive sector demand; however, weak foreign orders and rising delivery times contributed to overall market instability. The national social inventory of hot-rolled steel fell by 3.72% week-over-week as of early December, reflecting active destocking across East, Central, and South China. Meanwhile, increased production post-maintenance and stable coke prices created a balancing effect. The overall market conditions suggest that participants face challenges from inconsistent demand, inventory fluctuations, and broader economic uncertainties as they navigate the evolving landscape in early 2025.
EUROPE
The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market in Europe is characterized by fluctuating demand conditions and pricing stability, as industry participants navigate economic uncertainties. In the fourth quarter of 2024, HRC prices have seen a slight uptick compared to Q3, reflecting cautious optimism among producers amid ongoing challenges in the construction and automotive sectors. Demand for HRC in Europe has been subdued, particularly within the eurozone construction industry, where October showed a worsening contraction in activity. While new orders in Italy exhibited slight resilience, Germany, France, and other major markets have continued to face stagnant sales. Manufacturing indices indicate that while the pace of contraction in Germany improved slightly in October, the overall outlook remains bleak. Seasonal impacts, including the New Year holiday period, have contributed to reduced purchasing activity, creating a fragile balance between supply and demand. Market participants face challenges such as limited import options, competition from lower-priced European producers, and ongoing uncertainties in global trade policies. Without significant policy support or a rebound in demand, the HRC market in Europe could continue to encounter difficulties as it moves into 2025. Producers are anticipating price recovery as they announce higher offers, though these have yet to gain traction due to cautious buyer sentiment and regulatory hurdles surrounding imports. As of the end of Q4, the price for HR Coil (3 mm) FD-Ruhr in Germany stands at approximately USD 683/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices in North America saw a significant increase, driven by various key factors. The market experienced a strong rise in prices due to heightened demand, alongside supply constraints and rising production costs. This upward trend was especially prominent in the USA, where the most substantial price changes occurred.
Overall, the quarter exhibited a positive trajectory in HRC pricing, showing a considerable increase compared to the same period last year. However, it is worth noting that there was a slight decline of 9% from the previous quarter in 2024 despite the prices raised by the Nucor, reflecting some volatility in the pricing dynamics.
Additionally, an increase in prices was observed between the first half and the second half of the quarter, indicating a consistent upward trend throughout this period. The quarter concluded with the latest price of USD 842/MT of HR Coil (3 mm) DEL Illinois in the USA, signalling a robust pricing environment with a consistent upward sentiment.
Asia-Pacific
In Q3 2024, the Hot Rolled Coils (HRC) market in the APAC region witnessed a significant decline in prices, mainly influenced by several key factors. The quarter saw a challenging environment for HRC pricing, with a notable decrease compared to the same quarter last year. The recent decline from the previous quarter in 2024 has deepened the ongoing downward trend in market prices.
As a significant player in this market, China experienced the most noticeable price fluctuations, with significant drops observed between the first and second halves of the quarter. This dramatic change highlights the broader market dynamics characterized by negative sentiment. Various factors have contributed to this atmosphere, including the lack of effective policy support, the ongoing transition to new national standards, and the repercussions of the slack season, which has negatively affected demand levels. Collectively, these elements have created a difficult environment for market participants, leading to heightened uncertainty and further price reductions.
The latest quarter-ending price for HR Coil (Q235-1 mm) Ex Shanghai in China stood at USD 478/MT, reflecting the prevailing decreasing pricing environment in the region. The quarter was characterized by a notable decrease in prices, highlighting a challenging period for the HRC market in the APAC region, particularly in China.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Hot Rolled Coils market in Europe faced a significant downturn, with prices declining compared to the previous quarter. This overall decrease from the same quarter last year can be linked to several key factors affecting market prices. There has been weak demand from major end-user sectors, such as automotive and construction, along with issues of oversupply, which have contributed to pricing pressures.
Additionally, the ongoing summer holiday season has dampened overall market activity, leading to limited trading and subdued purchasing levels. Germany has been particularly affected by these changes, experiencing the most significant impact, with prices dropping by 3% from the previous quarter. The correlation in price changes suggests a negative trend, with the market marked by instability and uncertainty.
Seasonal factors have also played a crucial role in these fluctuations, as buyers have become hesitant to restock, choosing instead to wait for clearer market signals before making further commitments. The latest quarter-ending price for HR Coil (3 mm) FD-Ruhr in Germany stands at USD 658/MT, reflecting the prevailing negative sentiment and challenging market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Hot Rolled Coils (HRC) market experienced a pronounced downturn in pricing, influenced by multifaceted factors. The quarter exhibited a negative pricing environment primarily due to persistent oversupply amidst subdued demand. The steel industry grappled with an imbalance between production and consumption, exacerbated by economic headwinds such as inflationary pressures and rising input costs. Compounded by global competition, the influx of competitively priced imports further intensified domestic price declines.
Focusing on the USA, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the overall trend mirrored a consistent decrease throughout the quarter. The seasonality typically associated with a mid-year uptick in construction and manufacturing failed to materialize, suppressed by market saturation and lacklustre demand recovery. Within Q2, the first and second halves saw a sequential price drop, underscoring the relentless downward momentum.
The correlation in price changes was influenced by lower industrial activity and strategic discounting by mills attempting to clear inventory. This consistent decrease in prices highlights a negative pricing sentiment, driven by an oversupply scenario and external pressures, reflecting an overall adverse environment for the HRC market in North America during this period.
Europe
In the context of Q2 2024, the European market for Hot Rolled Coils (HRC) experienced a relatively stable pricing environment. This quarter was characterized by a combination of subdued demand, cautious buyer behaviour, and competitive pressures from imports, all of which contributed to a largely stagnant pricing trend. The overall market sentiment oscillated between concern over low end-user consumption and cautious optimism stemming from strategic inventory management and controlled supply. A significant influence was the fluctuating cost of raw materials, specifically iron ore and coking coal, which exerted downward pressure on HRC prices. Additionally, the regulatory impact of the European Union's safeguard quota adjustments played a pivotal role in maintaining a delicate balance between domestic supply and international competition. Focusing on Germany, which saw the most pronounced price adjustments, the market trends underscored a consistent decline. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices are dropped reflecting broader market challenges and persistent low demand. When compared to the previous quarter of 2024, the decline mirrored the declining pattern, indicating a continuing trend rather than a sudden shift in market dynamics. The consistent decline observed in Germany indicates a negative pricing environment. Overarching factors such as low demand from key steel-consuming sectors, cautious restocking by buyers, and competitive pressures from non-European suppliers predominantly influenced this trend. Seasonality played a negligible role, with stability being driven more by market fundamentals than by seasonal variations. Correlatively, the prices reflected sustained pressures rather than episodic changes, further affirming the stability in the broader context of market challenges.
Asia-Pacific
The pricing environment for Hot Rolled Coils (HRC) in the APAC region during Q2 2024 has consistently trended downward, influenced by several key factors. The region's market experienced subdued demand across several sectors, exacerbated by competitive pressures from Chinese suppliers. The influx of low-priced imports from China created significant challenges for local producers, leading to a decline in market prices. Additionally, seasonal factors such as the monsoon season adversely affected construction activities, further dampening demand. The persistence of high raw material costs, particularly coking coal, also exerted downward pressure on profit margins, compelling producers to adjust prices accordingly. Specifically in China, which saw the most significant price fluctuations, the overall trend was characterized by a decreasing price trajectory. The moderation in steel demand, particularly from the real estate sector, played a pivotal role in this decline. Seasonality factors, including a traditional off-season for construction, compounded the situation. From the previous quarter of 2024, there was a recorded decrease, indicating a persistent downward trend. Comparing the first and second half of the quarter, the price dropped, underscoring the ongoing challenges in market dynamics. The quarter ended with HR Coil, epitomizing a negative pricing environment dominated by declining trends. The continuous price depreciation throughout the quarter highlights the struggles faced by the steel industry in maintaining stable market conditions amidst fluctuating demand and competitive pressures.
