For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the United States, Hydrogenated Castor Oil (HCO) Price Index rose in Q3 2025, driven by rising input costs.
• Production costs increased from firming castor oil feedstock and natural gas price spikes year-over-year.
• Manufacturing input prices rose in Q3 2025, with Consumer Price Index up 3% (Sep) and PPI up 2.6% (Aug).
• Personal care product demand strengthened in Q3 2025, supported by a 5.42% year-over-year retail sales increase.
• Industrial lubricant demand increased in Q3 2025, despite marginal 0.1% year-over-year industrial production.
• HCO demand outlook is mixed; consumer confidence declined to 94.2 (Sep 2025), tempering spending.
• A low unemployment rate of 4.3% in September 2025 supported overall economic activity and HCO demand.
• Manufacturing inventories of finished goods significantly increased in Q3 2025; castor oil importer inventories moderate.
• The Hydrogenated Castor Oil price forecast suggests continued upward pressure from elevated input costs and varied demand.
Why did the price of Hydrogenated castor oil change in September 2025 in North America?
• Production costs rose from 3% Consumer Price Index increase (Sep 2025) and firming castor oil feedstock.
• Natural gas prices spiked year-over-year in Q3 2025, increasing manufacturing input expenses.
• Demand supported by 5.42% retail sales rise (Sep 2025), despite weak industrial production.
APAC
• In China, the Hydrogenated Castor Oil Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by rising import prices.
• Hydrogenated Castor oil production costs increased in Q3 2025, driven by higher castor seed and processing expenses.
• Demand for Hydrogenated castor oil remained consistent in Q3 2025 from personal care and lubricant segments.
• China's Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, signaling reduced overall industrial activity.
• Industrial Production expanded by 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, supporting raw material demand.
• Retail Sales increased by 3% year-on-year in September 2025, boosting consumer-facing applications despite declining Consumer Price Index.
• The Producer Price Index fell by 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025, reflecting weak industrial demand.
• Consumer Confidence Index at 89.6 in September 2025 suggested cautious consumer spending, impacting some end-uses.
Why did the price of Hydrogenated castor oil change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Rising castor seed and processing costs in Q3 2025 pressured production expenses upward.
• Increased castor oil import prices in Q3 2025, from higher Indian export offers, influenced market pricing.
• Anticipated supply tightness in Q3 2025, relying on previous harvest stock, supported price increases.
Europe
• In Germany, the Hydrogenated Castor Oil Price Index remained stable quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, reflecting mixed market signals.
• Hydrogenated Castor Oil production costs faced upward pressure from strengthening European natural gas prices in Q1-Q3 2025.
• Producer prices of industrial products decreased by 1.7% in September 2025, indicating lower overall input costs.
• Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in September 2025, suggesting rising input costs and reduced consumer purchasing power.
• The Manufacturing Index showed a contracting trend in Q3 2025, signaling reduced demand for industrial raw materials.
• Industrial production declined by 1% in September 2025, negatively impacting Hydrogenated Castor Oil demand.
• Retail sales increased by 0.2% in September 2025, offering slight support for consumer-facing Hydrogenated castor oil applications.
• The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3% in September 2025, suggesting ongoing economic weakness and constrained demand.
Why did the price of Hydrogenated castor oil change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Production costs were influenced by strengthening European natural gas prices in Q1-Q3 2025 and high operating costs.
• Demand for Hydrogenated Castor Oil was dampened by a contracting Manufacturing Index and a 1% decline in industrial production in September 2025.
• Lower producer prices of industrial products by 1.7% in September 2025 partially offset cost pressures, contributing to price stability.
