For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
In the second quarter of 2023, Inconel prices in the US market showed a downward trend despite the April-May prices. At the beginning of the second quarter, the price trend increased for several reasons, such as the reopening of the Chinese economy and stronger than expected industrial growth in Europe and the United States. These factors boosted demand for Inconel's early-stage buildings and construction equipment, along with a correction in the US dollar, which boosted demand. Uncertainty in the global economy due to the Russian-Ukrainian war and interest rates from the US central bank outweighed positive demand and limited price increases. Geopolitical headwinds affected the metals complex, leading to a volatile trading year and ending in negative returns. According to market participants, the current market dynamics in the United States are full of uncertainty due to the apparent slowdown in the European and American economies. On the other hand, in the second quarter, the price of Inconel will begin to decline, as US stainless steel mills continue to keep sales prices flat due to slowing demand and increased import competition. Businesses report that customers are increasingly reluctant to spend as the cost-of-living rises, interest rates rise, concerns about the economic outlook grow and spending shifts to services. Factory prices for premium alloys barely rose in June as reports of markdowns mounted, suggesting an almost complete collapse of inflationary pressures in the goods manufacturing sector.
Asia- Pacific
In the Japanese market, Inconel prices increased in the second quarter of 2023 due to fluctuations in nickel raw materials and stable demand from the chemical industry. Japan's manufacturing environment reflected ongoing challenges and the need to monitor economic conditions and demand trends. Overall, inflationary pressures remained high, but input prices rose more slowly. Manufacturers tried to protect profit margins by passing on higher costs to customers, leading to an acceleration of wage inflation. The price increase in May was due to the disruption of the supply chain against the background of stable secondary demand from the chemical industry. Dark ore prices reported by traders and domestic smelters varied. On the demand side, Inconel spot suppliers reduced their bids to win deals due to limited demand in foreign markets and growth in social shares. Market participants said the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy extremely easy on Friday despite stronger-than-expected inflation, indicating it remains on the sidelines among global central banks and is focused on supporting a fragile economic recovery. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held its first policy meeting under new president Kazuo Ueda in April and its second in June. There was no change in policy, suggesting that their brutality would continue. Although the BoJ has maintained its cautious stance on continued inflation and wage growth in Japan, macroeconomic indicators continue to point to stable developments.
Europe
On the German market, Inconel prices remained unchanged and stable in the second quarter of 2023. On the supply side, the balance between production capacity and market demand led to a stable price. On the demand side, small fluctuations in Inconel prices point to relatively flat demand in key industries such as chemical, aerospace and oil and gas. The steady demand for Inconel products in these sectors has offset any price fluctuations. At the same time, Inconel prices turned north in May, driven by fluctuations in the price of feedstock nickel, as inquiries from the chemical downstream industry increased. According to the major players, the lack of supply is the most important factor supporting the increase in the price of raw materials. Economic uncertainty has been cited as the reason for price fluctuations, which has led to improved cost efficiency for end users. European stainless-steel mills are believed to have operated at significantly reduced prices in the second quarter due to weak demand and low prices. The work is quiet in all countries, customers order only one after the other or not at all. Lower consumption forces factories to cut production to balance supply and demand. Market sentiment remains gloomy. In addition to the decrease in supply, the stabilization of stainless-steel scrap prices contributed to the convergence of stainless-steel prices to the bottom.
MEA
In the United Arab Emirates market, Inconel prices rose in April due to fluctuations in raw material prices against the backdrop of increased inflationary pressure. Inconel prices rose in April, market participants said, pointing to faster growth in the non-oil economy, driven by rapid growth in new orders and easing inflationary pressures. Growing demand and rapid capacity improvements boosted confidence in future operations. The strong growth of new businesses underlined the confidence of companies to respond to the economic outlook. In the second quarter of the second quarter, Inconel prices rose at the end of the second quarter as downstream companies, such as chemical equipment manufacturers, increased their purchasing activity due to significant increases in workload and inventory replenishment. UAE traders are increasingly turning to the market leader for price consistency and stability. The ability of businesses to secure increasing volumes of new business remained unchanged in June, as new job growth accelerated to a four-year high. However, some of this growth is projected based on discounts offered to customers, which may not be sustainable in the long term as input costs rise. According to key players, the non-oil private sector remained on a strong footing mid-year and has good conditions for continued growth in the second half of 2023.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the first quarter of 2023, the US market witnessed stagnancy in Inconel prices due to fluctuating raw material prices and dwindling market sentiments. In January, spot market premiums for nickel products were mixed, with briquette premiums in both regions falling due to a shift in sentiment. Market participants reported that firms raised market prices consistently again in February in an attempt to pass on the rising premiums to customers. This improvement was aided by a significant decrease in the amount of input purchased by manufacturers. As the supply of purchases and finished products decreased, companies opted to mitigate rather than increase their inventories. In March, rising interest rates by the Fed and escalating worries of an economic recession raised concerns among market players. Despite stable demand, the future of the Inconel market in the US is uncertain due to high-interest rates and squeezed credit lines. The global market is highly competitive, with fewer imports and exports, leading to stiff competition. The market outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain. The prices of Alloy 600 Sheet and Alloy 625 Sheet for Ex Florida (USA) settled at USD 86694/MT and USD 136140/MT, respectively.
Asia Pacific
The Japanese Inconel market had a mixed sentiment in the first quarter of 2023, which was caused by fluctuating raw material prices and an uncertain demand outlook. The market remained stable in January and February due to lower production during the year-end festivities, which kept the alloy price unchanged since December. While the regional raw material and Inconel markets displayed upward momentum, Inconel prices remained largely stable month over month due to weak activity in Japan. However, in March, the prices of Inconel decreased due to falling prices of raw materials, nickel, and chromium, and a reduction in downstream propeller blades and motors. The operating rate of Inconel was historically low, but there was potential to increase production in the future, and the supply side was not heavily influencing prices. The recovery of the real estate and manufacturing sectors was expected to lead to a sharp rebound in terminal demand in the long term. The Alloy 600 Sheet, Alloy 601 Sheet, and Alloy 625 Sheet for Ex Osaka (Japan) settled at USD 54829/MT, USD 51088/MT, and USD 74838/MT.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2023, the European Inconel market experienced an upward momentum in prices, driven by fluctuating raw material nickel costs and downstream inquiries. While there was moderate demand in Q1, raw material prices increased, pushing up alloy prices. Meanwhile, chromium and manganese demand increased in response to overseas orders, causing prices to rise. High prices and tightening financial conditions continued to put pressure on demand, despite the seasonal decrease in demand and stabilization of the situation in the energy market. However, several factors in the global market triggered a significant price increase in the noble ferroalloys segment, primarily molybdenum, and vanadium. In the Inconel market, lower energy costs, rising raw material prices, and significantly lower demand dominated the market, with prices experiencing more speculation. Market participants were optimistic, though, with recent announcements from several European plants restarting furnaces that could increase raw material
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the US market, the Inconel prices showcased a stagnancy in the price trend in the final quarter of 2022 owing to the fluctuating upstream Nickel prices and limited demand outlook. According to several market participants, nickel trading activity recovery depended on the market opening up to arbitrage trading. In November, the LME decided to keep things as they were. The supply of raw materials for moly ingot was insufficient; demand in China was extremely high, particularly in December. While there were some stocks of molybdenum oxide and Ferro molybdenum in Europe, due to these being more liquid markets with more trade, inventories of moly ingot in European warehouses remain critically low. There was a supply shortage in 2022, with downstream consumers reporting that there was less material available from China. Because there was no available material on the ground, some people flew material from China.
Asia Pacific
In the final quarter of 2022, the Inconel prices market remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2022 in their price trend in the Chinese market, owing to a stable supply and demand outlook. In the downstream market, demand for Inconel had increased due to frequent positive developments in the new energy industry chain. According to market participants, the market entered the off-season in November, and the market's potential negative effects began to emerge. That is, there was concern about excess due to the high output of Inconel. International molybdenum price volatility has influenced sentiment in the domestic molybdenum market. Some mining companies and traders actively sold, easing the supply of raw materials. Despite this, the majority of mining companies were holding back cargo in anticipation of price increases. The supply of molybdenum raw materials is currently relatively stable. As the year comes to a close, Inconel prices have risen due to the positive impact of downstream stainless steel enterprises' stock preparation for the festival, as well as the stimulus of favorable macroeconomic policies.
Europe
During the final quarter of 2022, the Inconel prices showcased a persistent rising trend in the European market, owing to rising inflationary pressures and a consistent downstream demand outlook. According to market participants, service centers, brokers, and master distributors were still well-stocked. Many businesses continued to take aggressive measures to move inventory. Buyers' demand from the downstream sector has increased. The Nickel market interpreted the more startling inflation data as a possible stepping stone toward a slower pace of future interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, which, combined with subsequent dollar weakness, sent prices soaring by the end of the quarter. Firms' decision to work through excess inventories built earlier in the year was influenced by weak demand conditions, with pre-production inventories falling sharply and finished goods stocks remaining broadly unchanged month on month. As 2022 came to a close, Inconel's manufacturing sector performed poorly, with output and new orders contracting at a rapid pace.
For The Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the third quarter, Inconel prices in the US market slightly increased as firms reduced operating capacity in response to declining demand. According to market participants, the US economy deteriorated noticeably in Q3 as company activity declined in both the industrial and service sectors. With the exception of pandemic lockdown months, the overall drop in output was the largest since the global financial crisis, indicating that the economy will most likely contract for a third consecutive quarter. Higher interest rates, combined with ongoing inflation, have trickled down to the consumer sector. Supply of Inconel outstripped the available demand in the US market. The problem with adding new capacity is expanding at a rate two to three times faster than demand. Maintenance shutdowns have been ineffective in their efforts to offset the declining prices. While, continuously falling import prices may compensate for lower domestic supply in the coming months. Therefore, the Alloy 600 and Alloy 625 prices for Ex Florida (USA) at USD 91200/MT and USD 126760/MT.
Asia Pacific
During the third quarter of 2022, the Inconel price witnessed an up-swinging trend in the Asian market. According to market participants, the Indian market has stable to moderate demand inquiries. However, there was no discernible improvement in purchasing interest, and both domestic and export orders were weak. Due to high inventories held by producers, sentiment in the Indian ferroalloys market remained negative. However, due to a lack of supply, some major producers have increased their offers but have yet to find market acceptance. Since chrome ore prices have fallen, small-scale buyers have been deferring purchases in anticipation of a lower price in the next round of purchase tenders from major stainless-steel manufacturers. Buyers with depleted inventories booked even small quantities to ensure that production could continue. Thus, the Alloy 600 and Alloy 601 prices for Ex Shanghai (China) settled at USD 33680/MT and 32020/MT.
Europe
In the European market, the Inconel prices witnessed an unprecedented surge in the third quarter despite falling demand. The seasonal decline in business activity in Europe and the United States and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties have been putting pressure on the nickel market. There has been little purchasing activity in the domestic market. Despite this, Inconel prices have risen as European buyers seek Inconel imports from Japanese players. Participants anticipated that the Inconel prices would rise amid high costs while producers expected to continue operating at low capacity. As production levels drop, German steel producers and traders expect prices to see upward momentum over August amid low supply. Despite sluggish demand during Europe's summer vacations, production levels were lower than usual for the season. Due to rising energy costs, mills were eager to establish higher pricing on product margins going into Q4. Thus, the Alloy 600 Sheet and Alloy 601 Sheet prices for Ex Werdohl (Germany) settled at USD 37300/MT and USD 36830/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
During the second quarter of 2022, Inconel prices in the United States exhibited a spiraling trend, owing primarily to raw material shortages, particularly nickel-chromium and molybdenum, and a limited supply chain amid ongoing geopolitical events. Inconel prices varied significantly across regions due to higher freight costs and limited import options. According to market participants, raw material price inflation in the United States unexpectedly increased in May, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Furthermore, reduced production activity in the regional market resulted from reduced production and new orders added to the work backlog. Meanwhile, the rate of cost inflation has accelerated, with firms passing on higher costs to buyers in the form of production charges. As a result, the prices of Alloy 600 and Alloy 625 for Ex Florida settled at USD 105990/MT and USD 121540/MT, respectively.
Asia Pacific
In the Asian market, Inconel prices were mixed during the second quarter of 2022, owing to supply chain disruptions and the relaxation of stringent COVID lockdown and control measures. This rising infection among miners has heightened fears of a labor shortage. Domestic market participants claimed that the strict lockdown measures and soaring raw material prices in the global market, combined with the ongoing hostility in Ukraine, were the primary factors driving this uptrend in April. Furthermore, a rise in the US dollar index due to Fed interest rate hikes and an upsurge in demand for the US dollar owing to the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war resulted in a significant drop in export volume in May and June. As a result, the Ex Shanghai prices for Alloy 600, Alloy 601, and Alloy 625 settled at USD 37200/MT, USD 35600/MT, and USD 39500/MT, respectively.
MEA
In the second quarter of 2022, the Inconel prices in the United Arab Emirates witnessed an uptrend due to the severe volatility in raw materials prices associated with the broadened demand-supply gap. Inconel prices have risen since the first quarter due to strong demand from downstream industries such as jet engine exhausts, flare stacks, and chemical plant equipment. All non-essential cargo resources to and from Russia have been hampered until further notice as a result of Russia's invasion and subsequent sanctions on Russian raw materials imposed by Western nations and critical stakeholders; this has forced nickel consumers in those markets to avoid Russian raw materials and metal, creating a grappling condition for alternative supply quotations. Meanwhile, purchasing activity has slowed, partly due to companies reducing inventories rather than purchasing new materials due to increased spending prudence. As a result, the Ex Dubai prices for Alloy 600, Alloy 601, and Alloy 626 were USD 39620/MT, USD 38400/MT, and USD 48000/MT.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
Inconel prices in the US market increased slightly during the first quarter of 2022 due to raw material shortages, primarily nickel-chromium and molybdenum, and a limited supply chain amid ongoing geopolitical events. Inconel prices varied significantly across regions due to higher freight costs and limited import options. Despite low demand in the domestic market, Inconel prices increased because the market's shortage of molybdenum concentrate has been significantly alleviated. Currently, mills are working hard to reduce raw material prices, and the overall market is on hold. As a result, many market participants took a wait-and-see approach in the face of stagnant demand.
Asia
In Asia, the price of Inconel quotations witnessed a slightly increasing trajectory owing to the supply chain constraints amid increasing COVID-19 infection in China during the first quarter of 2022. This rising infection among workers has further raised fears of labour shortages in the mines. Additionally, the pandemic has prompted the Chinese authorities to implement strict restrictions and enforce lockdowns in major cities and ports. As per market participants, the first contraction in manufacturing activity was observed in March, reflecting the impact of widespread COVID-19 outbreaks in key cities, including Shanghai and Shenzhen. The Chinese steel production hub has further enforced lockdowns to curb the spread. The domestic market players proclaimed that the strict lockdown measures and the soaring raw materials prices in the global market amidst the ongoing hostility in Ukraine were the key factors that backed this uptrend. As a ripple effect, Alloy 600, Alloy 601, and Alloy 625 prices for Ex Shanghai settled at USD 39220/MT, USD 36345/MT, and USD 41250/MT during April.
Europe
Inconel prices in European nations rose during the first quarter of 2022 because of the reduced production activity caused by Russian troops encircling Ukraine. Furthermore, the severe supply disruption, rising crude oil and energy costs, soaring raw material prices, and increased demand fuelled this uptrend. In addition, the German Steel plants were adjusting to the bullish energy prices and the availability issues amid the transportation sit-downs, driven by the high fuel costs. However, market participants chose a wait-and-watch approach and conducted limited transactions at the end of March, avoiding restocking due to high prices. Eventually, German market participants anticipated rising Inconel prices, driven by supply-demand dynamics. As a ripple effect, the prices of Alloy 600, Alloy 601, and Alloy 625 for Ex Werdohl settled at USD 33200/MT, USD 32900/MT, and USD 34500/MT.
