For the Quarter Ending June 2025
Asia Pacific (APAC)
• In APAC, particularly in China, the Isobutane Price Index showcased a mixed performance over Q2 2025. April marked a slight recovery due to increased refrigerant demand, while May and June witnessed declines driven by subdued industrial activity and ample supply, prices settled at 1490 USD/MT by the end of the quarter.
• Volatile oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties in global trade routes also contributed to the price movements.
• The Isobutane Price Index in China declined further in July 2025. Weak consumption from the butyl rubber and isobutylene sectors, combined with continued inventory build-up, kept prices on a downward slope.
• Reduced refinery throughput costs were offset by weakened downstream conversion, keeping spot prices under pressure.
• Domestic production remained robust, but high inventory levels across major hubs like Shandong added to oversupply. While MTBE demand saw seasonal gains, the broader Isobutane Demand Outlook stayed sluggish due to macroeconomic slowdown.
• The Isobutane Production Cost Trend remained rangebound in July, aided by steady crude benchmarks but limited by downstream inactivity. The Isobutane Spot Price saw marginal discounts from traders eager to liquidate stocks ahead of expected August plant turnarounds.
North America
• The Isobutane Price Index in North America showed moderate fluctuations during Q2 and into July 2025. The market witnessed alternating trends driven by shifting crude oil dynamics and refinery throughput variations.
• A consistent feedstock flow from natural gas liquids and the presence of seasonal gasoline blending supported base production; however, midstream disruptions and a volatile energy market added unpredictability to price trends.
• The Price Index of Isobutane in North America increased in July 2025, attributed to higher demand from the fuel additive sector and scheduled maintenance at key cracking units across the Gulf Coast. Rising crude oil prices and improved margins in MTBE and alkylate production also pushed up spot prices slightly.
• The Isobutane Production Cost Trend tracked higher in July due to rising oil benchmarks, especially WTI, leading to cost pass-throughs in downstream pricing. While inventories were sufficient to meet demand, logistics-related constraints post-hurricane season added marginal delivery delays. The Isobutane Demand Outlook remained optimistic with refiners increasing purchase volumes ahead of the summer gasoline blending season.
Europe
• The Isobutane Price Index in Europe during Q2 2025 remained volatile, reflecting uncertainty in upstream markets and refinery operations. Frequent disruptions due to plant maintenance and fluctuating naphtha costs contributed to uneven pricing. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny on VOCs (volatile organic compounds) usage in downstream applications subtly influenced the product’s offtake.
• The Price Index in Europe decreased in July 2025, driven by lower upstream cost pressure and decreased demand in the refrigerant and petrochemical segments.
• Softer economic activity in Germany, France, and Eastern Europe trimmed Isobutane consumption, particularly in butyl rubber and propellant manufacturing.
• The Isobutane Spot Price saw periodic corrections during July due to improved availability from domestic and import sources. The Isobutane Production Cost Trend remained under control with feedstock cost softness.
• However, downstream buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, delaying purchases in anticipation of further price drops. Overall, the Isobutane Demand Outlook remained cautious amid slow industrial recovery.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. isobutane market experienced notable price fluctuations, influenced by shifts in the refrigerant sector and broader economic dynamics. January saw a modest price uptick, driven by increased demand for hydrocarbon-based refrigerants like Isobutane, as manufacturers sought alternatives to high-GWP substances in compliance with evolving environmental regulations.
However, February and March brought downward pressure on isobutane prices. The imposition of a 145% tariff on Chinese goods led to a surge in imports ahead of the tariff's enforcement, resulting in a record-high goods trade deficit of $162 billion in March . This front-loading distorted inventory levels and contributed to a contraction in GDP, with estimates ranging from -0.8% to -1.75% . The economic uncertainty dampened industrial activity, including sectors reliant on isobutane.
Despite these challenges, the U.S. refrigerant market continues its transition toward environmentally friendly alternatives, sustaining a baseline demand for isobutane. Looking ahead, the market's trajectory will depend on the resolution of trade tensions and the broader economic recovery.
Asia
The price of Isobutane witnessed a consistent decline in the Asian market during this quarter on the back of low demand from regional market. However, by the end of the quarter, demand fundamentals of the product started to improve, showcasing an optimistic momentum, as seasonal demand was likely to hit the market. On the economic perspective, severe turmoil was observed due to geopolitical issues.
In Q1 2025, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations due to strong industrial output and retail sales. However, this growth is seen as temporary, boosted by front-loaded exports ahead of new U.S. tariffs and expanded trade-in programs. Analysts anticipate a slowdown in the coming quarters, citing pressure from the U.S. trade measures and ongoing challenges in the property sector. While industrial and retail sectors performed well, services growth slowed, and agriculture weakened. Policymakers are expected to introduce further stimulus to support domestic demand and offset external pressures.
Europe
In Q1 2025, Germany's isobutane market experienced moderate price fluctuations, influenced by the performance of the refrigerant sector and broader economic dynamics. Demand for the product remained low during this period due to seasonality factor, while economic stress also played an important role in drawing the pricing dynamics of Isobutane in the European market.
In the first quarter of 2025, Germany’s economy displayed moderate growth amid mixed signals. Industrial output and retail sales recorded slight upticks, although capacity utilization remained subdued. Inflation eased to 2.3% in March, providing some relief to consumers. Export activity strengthened, partially driven by concerns over potential U.S. tariffs, which prompted front-loaded shipments. While employment levels dipped marginally, overall labor market stability was maintained. The energy sector showed robust progress, particularly in photovoltaics and utility services, reflecting a shift toward sustainable infrastructure.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the Isobutane market in North America experienced a relatively stable trend, despite facing pricing pressures. In the first month of Q4, prices saw a slight decline driven by weak domestic demand and high inventory levels. The shift towards winter led to reduced demand in the refrigeration sector, a major consumer of Isobutane. Industrial activity showed some recovery, but it was not sufficient to boost demand for Isobutane.
Additionally, the U.S. chemical industry raised concerns about the potential impact of an extended dock workers' strike on the Gulf and East Coasts. Such a strike could disrupt exports and exacerbate supply surpluses. With production levels remaining moderate, ongoing supply chain challenges continued to affect both imports and exports, further dampening market sentiment.
On the supply side, Isobutane production operated at near capacity in North America. Export demand remained robust, especially due to constrained supplies in other regions. While logistical challenges, including rising freight costs, added some pressure on prices, the overall market stayed relatively balanced. Demand from the petrochemical sector, particularly for fuel production, was steady, but the weak refrigeration demand tempered overall market growth. Prices remained under pressure through the quarter, showing only modest fluctuations due to strong export activity and continued oversupply.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Isobutane market in the APAC region experienced a mixed trend. In October, prices in China declined, continuing a downward trajectory due to weak demand and high inventory levels. The seasonal shift toward winter reduced demand from the refrigeration sector, a major consumer of Isobutane. Despite a marginal improvement in industrial activity, as indicated by a slight rise in China’s manufacturing PMI to 50.1, demand for Isobutane remained weak due to oversupply.
Supply-side conditions remained stable, with production levels in China operating near capacity. While there were improvements in global supply chains, including stabilization in raw material inventory and supplier delivery times, these factors did little to alleviate the oversupply in the Isobutane market.
By the end of Q4, Isobutane prices were further influenced by a surge in demand from the petrochemical sector, particularly for alkylation processes used in fuel production. Exports to India and other parts of Asia also rose, driven by seasonal demand and local supply constraints. However, the overall market remained challenged by high inventories and weak domestic consumption, keeping prices relatively stable for the quarter.
Europe
In Q4 2024, Isobutane prices in Europe were influenced by mixed supply and demand factors. The market saw a slight downward trend in start of the quarter, driven by weak demand from the refrigeration sector as the seasonal shift toward winter lowered consumption. At the same time, industrial activity remained subdued, with only slight improvements seen in manufacturing, which did not significantly impact the demand for Isobutane.
Supply-side conditions in Europe remained relatively stable, with Isobutane production levels meeting both domestic and export needs. While production continued at a steady pace, global supply constraints, particularly in major producing regions like the US and Asia, put upward pressure on prices.
The petrochemical sector saw strong demand, particularly from alkylation processes, which helped support the market. Additionally, European exports to Asia, driven by local supply shortages, showed a moderate increase. Despite these factors, overall demand in Europe remained weak, and prices experienced minimal fluctuations through the quarter, largely stabilized by strong export activities.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Isobutane prices remained confined to a narrow range in Q3 2024, reflecting the influence of several interconnected factors. The U.S. economy displayed mixed resilience, maintaining momentum despite ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical challenges.
Supply dynamics were influenced by consistent manufacturing output and shifting trade conditions. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for manufacturing edged down from 249.624 in Q2 to 248.383 in Q3, indicating modest cost reductions for producers. The economy benefited from inventory replenishment efforts, with GDP growth reaching 3.0% in Q2 and forecasted to rise 2.7% for the year.
Consumer and business investments, supported by the CHIPS Act and other policies, sustained demand, while inflation eased below 3.0% by July. However, risks to supply chains emerged from geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East and the possibility of new trade tariffs. Although the Fed’s expected rate cuts aim to maintain economic growth, uncertainties in labor markets and trade policy could impact supply conditions through 2025.
Asia
In Q3 2024, isobutane prices in China followed a downward trend, with prices declining by2% in September from USD 1790/MT in August. The price decline was driven by weakened demand from both domestic and international markets, particularly in key sectors like refrigerants, where seasonal slowdown set in due to the arrival of winter. Additionally, demand from plastic manufacturing softened as peak procurement tapered off. Despite these challenges, China’s manufacturing sector showed slight improvement, with the PMI rising to 49.8% in September, suggesting a modest rebound in industrial activity. Supply levels remained robust throughout the quarter, with sufficient inventories to meet domestic and export needs, ensuring uninterrupted availability. Broader economic indicators, including a slowdown in industrial output and a decline in oil refinery and steel production, further dampened chemical demand. Although automotive production grew by 9% month-on-month, supported by NEV subsidies, it was insufficient to counterbalance the overall bearish market sentiment. Despite some hopes for demand recovery during China’s peak consumption seasons, such as "Golden September and Silver October," the quarter concluded with low demand fundamentals, stable supply, and downward pressure on isobutane prices.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, product prices in Europe exhibited limited fluctuations due to economic uncertainties linked to the ongoing West Asia conflict and slow growth in Europe and the U.S. Freight markets faced multiple challenges, with carriers like MSC and CMA CGM pushing FAK rates to $6,500 per container because of tight space and added surcharges. Red Sea disruptions and delays at Singapore ports further strained logistics. Air freight rates from Northeast Asia to Europe surged by 40% year-over-year, driven by a surge in e-commerce and semiconductor demand. Despite expanded capacity, supply chain imbalances remained unresolved. Geopolitical tensions and upcoming seasonal demand suggest continued volatility into Q4 2024. Meanwhile, Germany’s industrial sector continued to struggle, with weak production, high energy prices, and falling export demand, affecting the broader eurozone economy. Additionally, outlook for Q4 2024 seems dull too, as the geopolitical situation of the world is still disbalanced and in a threatening situation
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What is the current price of Isobutane in July 2025?
A1: The Isobutane Spot Price varied by region. In North America, prices saw a moderate increase due to refinery demand, while in Europe and APAC, prices declined due to weak downstream consumption and oversupply.
Q2: How is the current market situation of Isobutane globally?
A2: The global Isobutane market is undergoing region-specific adjustments. North America is experiencing modest bullishness due to seasonal fuel demand. Europe and Asia, on the other hand, face subdued demand and higher inventories, leading to a bearish trend in spot markets.
Q3: What are the key factors driving the Isobutane Price Index?
A3: The Isobutane Price Index is majorly driven by upstream crude oil prices, regional refinery operations, seasonal demand in fuel blending, and activity in refrigerant and polymer production sectors.
Q4: What is the short-term Isobutane Price Forecast?
A4: The Isobutane Price Forecast suggests region-specific movements. North America may experience stable to slightly higher prices through August, while prices in Europe and APAC are expected to remain under pressure due to muted industrial demand and sustained supply availability.
