For the Quarter Ending September 2025
APAC
• In China, the Isobutane Price Index fell by 11.6% quarter-over-quarter due to persisting oversupply pressure.
• The average Isobutane price for the quarter was approximately USD 1346.67/MT, reflecting muted market activity.
• Domestic inventories pressured the Isobutane Spot Price, prompting sellers to lower offers amid subdued interest.
• Near-term Isobutane Price Forecast indicates modest monthly declines, tempered by seasonal refining and blending demand.
• Lower crude and abundant natural gas supported lower Isobutane Production Cost Trend, keeping margins pressured.
• The Isobutane Demand Outlook remains weak due to slow industrial activity and restrained MTBE procurement.
• High stocks and tepid export interest weighed on the Isobutane Price Index and market sentiment.
• Operational continuity at major refiners sustained supply, limiting near-term upside for Isobutane Spot Price recovery.
Why did the price of Isobutane change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Elevated domestic production and built inventories pressured prices amid subdued MTBE and downstream petrochemical demand.
• Soft crude and abundant LNG reduced feedstock costs, lowering production cost pressures and seller pricing.
• Weak export enquiries, Indian procurement caution, and cautious blender behaviour limited international offtake and support.
North America
• The Price Index of Isobutane in North America fluctuated throughout Q3 2025, reflecting volatility in natural gas liquids (NGLs) supply and refining margins. The Isobutane Spot Price experienced periodic upward and downward swings due to refinery utilization rates and seasonal demand shifts.
• Why prices in September 2025 Changed: Prices increased in September 2025 due to higher refinery processing rates and growing demand from downstream LPG blending and refrigerant production. Tightened inventory levels amid increased exports to Asia also supported the price rise.
• Key downstream applications include refrigerants (R-600a), petrochemical feedstock, LPG blending, aerosol propellants, and isobutylene production for synthetic rubber and butyl rubber. Demand from the petrochemical and refrigerant sectors drove consumption.
• Production Cost Trend: The Isobutane Production Cost Trend saw modest increases in Q3 due to elevated natural gas feedstock prices and incremental transportation costs.
• Demand Outlook: The Isobutane Demand Outlook remains positive for Q4 2025, supported by sustained petrochemical production and peak-season refrigeration demand. The Isobutane Price Forecast anticipates moderate upward pressure through early Q4 before stabilization.
Europe
• The Price Index of Isobutane in Europe fluctuated in Q3 2025, influenced by variable refinery runs, LPG imports, and petrochemical feedstock demand. The Isobutane Spot Price remained volatile, with mid-quarter dips followed by recovery toward the end of September.
• Why prices in September 2025 Changed: Prices decreased in September 2025 due to lower domestic refinery output and weaker demand from aerosol and refrigerant sectors following seasonal slowdown. Competitive imports from North Africa and the Middle East added downward pressure.
• Isobutane is used extensively in refrigerants (R-600a), LPG blending, synthetic rubber production, and as a feedstock for MTBE. Reduced seasonal cooling demand contributed to lower consumption in September.
• Production Cost Trend: The Isobutane Production Cost Trend edged lower during the quarter as European natural gas prices softened, reducing extraction and fractionation costs.
• Demand Outlook: The Isobutane Demand Outlook for Q4 2025 is cautiously optimistic, anticipating growth in petrochemical applications and recovery in refrigeration demand. The Isobutane Price Forecast expects moderate stability after early Q4 adjustments.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
Asia Pacific (APAC)
• In APAC, particularly in China, the Isobutane Price Index showcased a mixed performance over Q2 2025. April marked a slight recovery due to increased refrigerant demand, while May and June witnessed declines driven by subdued industrial activity and ample supply, prices settled at 1490 USD/MT by the end of the quarter.
• Volatile oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties in global trade routes also contributed to the price movements.
• The Isobutane Price Index in China declined further in July 2025. Weak consumption from the butyl rubber and isobutylene sectors, combined with continued inventory build-up, kept prices on a downward slope.
• Reduced refinery throughput costs were offset by weakened downstream conversion, keeping spot prices under pressure.
• Domestic production remained robust, but high inventory levels across major hubs like Shandong added to oversupply. While MTBE demand saw seasonal gains, the broader Isobutane Demand Outlook stayed sluggish due to macroeconomic slowdown.
• The Isobutane Production Cost Trend remained rangebound in July, aided by steady crude benchmarks but limited by downstream inactivity. The Isobutane Spot Price saw marginal discounts from traders eager to liquidate stocks ahead of expected August plant turnarounds.
North America
• The Isobutane Price Index in North America showed moderate fluctuations during Q2 and into July 2025. The market witnessed alternating trends driven by shifting crude oil dynamics and refinery throughput variations.
• A consistent feedstock flow from natural gas liquids and the presence of seasonal gasoline blending supported base production; however, midstream disruptions and a volatile energy market added unpredictability to price trends.
• The Price Index of Isobutane in North America increased in July 2025, attributed to higher demand from the fuel additive sector and scheduled maintenance at key cracking units across the Gulf Coast. Rising crude oil prices and improved margins in MTBE and alkylate production also pushed up spot prices slightly.
• The Isobutane Production Cost Trend tracked higher in July due to rising oil benchmarks, especially WTI, leading to cost pass-throughs in downstream pricing. While inventories were sufficient to meet demand, logistics-related constraints post-hurricane season added marginal delivery delays. The Isobutane Demand Outlook remained optimistic with refiners increasing purchase volumes ahead of the summer gasoline blending season.
Europe
• The Isobutane Price Index in Europe during Q2 2025 remained volatile, reflecting uncertainty in upstream markets and refinery operations. Frequent disruptions due to plant maintenance and fluctuating naphtha costs contributed to uneven pricing. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny on VOCs (volatile organic compounds) usage in downstream applications subtly influenced the product’s offtake.
• The Price Index in Europe decreased in July 2025, driven by lower upstream cost pressure and decreased demand in the refrigerant and petrochemical segments.
• Softer economic activity in Germany, France, and Eastern Europe trimmed Isobutane consumption, particularly in butyl rubber and propellant manufacturing.
• The Isobutane Spot Price saw periodic corrections during July due to improved availability from domestic and import sources. The Isobutane Production Cost Trend remained under control with feedstock cost softness.
• However, downstream buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, delaying purchases in anticipation of further price drops. Overall, the Isobutane Demand Outlook remained cautious amid slow industrial recovery.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. isobutane market experienced notable price fluctuations, influenced by shifts in the refrigerant sector and broader economic dynamics. January saw a modest price uptick, driven by increased demand for hydrocarbon-based refrigerants like Isobutane, as manufacturers sought alternatives to high-GWP substances in compliance with evolving environmental regulations.
However, February and March brought downward pressure on isobutane prices. The imposition of a 145% tariff on Chinese goods led to a surge in imports ahead of the tariff's enforcement, resulting in a record-high goods trade deficit of $162 billion in March . This front-loading distorted inventory levels and contributed to a contraction in GDP, with estimates ranging from -0.8% to -1.75% . The economic uncertainty dampened industrial activity, including sectors reliant on isobutane.
Despite these challenges, the U.S. refrigerant market continues its transition toward environmentally friendly alternatives, sustaining a baseline demand for isobutane. Looking ahead, the market's trajectory will depend on the resolution of trade tensions and the broader economic recovery.
Asia
The price of Isobutane witnessed a consistent decline in the Asian market during this quarter on the back of low demand from regional market. However, by the end of the quarter, demand fundamentals of the product started to improve, showcasing an optimistic momentum, as seasonal demand was likely to hit the market. On the economic perspective, severe turmoil was observed due to geopolitical issues.
In Q1 2025, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations due to strong industrial output and retail sales. However, this growth is seen as temporary, boosted by front-loaded exports ahead of new U.S. tariffs and expanded trade-in programs. Analysts anticipate a slowdown in the coming quarters, citing pressure from the U.S. trade measures and ongoing challenges in the property sector. While industrial and retail sectors performed well, services growth slowed, and agriculture weakened. Policymakers are expected to introduce further stimulus to support domestic demand and offset external pressures.
Europe
In Q1 2025, Germany's isobutane market experienced moderate price fluctuations, influenced by the performance of the refrigerant sector and broader economic dynamics. Demand for the product remained low during this period due to seasonality factor, while economic stress also played an important role in drawing the pricing dynamics of Isobutane in the European market.
In the first quarter of 2025, Germany’s economy displayed moderate growth amid mixed signals. Industrial output and retail sales recorded slight upticks, although capacity utilization remained subdued. Inflation eased to 2.3% in March, providing some relief to consumers. Export activity strengthened, partially driven by concerns over potential U.S. tariffs, which prompted front-loaded shipments. While employment levels dipped marginally, overall labor market stability was maintained. The energy sector showed robust progress, particularly in photovoltaics and utility services, reflecting a shift toward sustainable infrastructure.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the Isobutane market in North America experienced a relatively stable trend, despite facing pricing pressures. In the first month of Q4, prices saw a slight decline driven by weak domestic demand and high inventory levels. The shift towards winter led to reduced demand in the refrigeration sector, a major consumer of Isobutane. Industrial activity showed some recovery, but it was not sufficient to boost demand for Isobutane.
Additionally, the U.S. chemical industry raised concerns about the potential impact of an extended dock workers' strike on the Gulf and East Coasts. Such a strike could disrupt exports and exacerbate supply surpluses. With production levels remaining moderate, ongoing supply chain challenges continued to affect both imports and exports, further dampening market sentiment.
On the supply side, Isobutane production operated at near capacity in North America. Export demand remained robust, especially due to constrained supplies in other regions. While logistical challenges, including rising freight costs, added some pressure on prices, the overall market stayed relatively balanced. Demand from the petrochemical sector, particularly for fuel production, was steady, but the weak refrigeration demand tempered overall market growth. Prices remained under pressure through the quarter, showing only modest fluctuations due to strong export activity and continued oversupply.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Isobutane market in the APAC region experienced a mixed trend. In October, prices in China declined, continuing a downward trajectory due to weak demand and high inventory levels. The seasonal shift toward winter reduced demand from the refrigeration sector, a major consumer of Isobutane. Despite a marginal improvement in industrial activity, as indicated by a slight rise in China’s manufacturing PMI to 50.1, demand for Isobutane remained weak due to oversupply.
Supply-side conditions remained stable, with production levels in China operating near capacity. While there were improvements in global supply chains, including stabilization in raw material inventory and supplier delivery times, these factors did little to alleviate the oversupply in the Isobutane market.
By the end of Q4, Isobutane prices were further influenced by a surge in demand from the petrochemical sector, particularly for alkylation processes used in fuel production. Exports to India and other parts of Asia also rose, driven by seasonal demand and local supply constraints. However, the overall market remained challenged by high inventories and weak domestic consumption, keeping prices relatively stable for the quarter.
Europe
In Q4 2024, Isobutane prices in Europe were influenced by mixed supply and demand factors. The market saw a slight downward trend in start of the quarter, driven by weak demand from the refrigeration sector as the seasonal shift toward winter lowered consumption. At the same time, industrial activity remained subdued, with only slight improvements seen in manufacturing, which did not significantly impact the demand for Isobutane.
Supply-side conditions in Europe remained relatively stable, with Isobutane production levels meeting both domestic and export needs. While production continued at a steady pace, global supply constraints, particularly in major producing regions like the US and Asia, put upward pressure on prices.
The petrochemical sector saw strong demand, particularly from alkylation processes, which helped support the market. Additionally, European exports to Asia, driven by local supply shortages, showed a moderate increase. Despite these factors, overall demand in Europe remained weak, and prices experienced minimal fluctuations through the quarter, largely stabilized by strong export activities.
