For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index (FOB US Gulf) posted a marginal uptick in Q2 2025, rising by 1.36% from USD 1,030/tonne in April to USD 1,044/tonne in June. Despite fluctuating demand and mixed downstream conditions, spot prices held firm across the quarter.
• Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in July 2025?
The Price Index declined due to sluggish downstream demand (notably from lubricants and surfactants) and weakening ethylene feedstock values. A sharp drop in export volumes to China, Brazil, and Mexico, coupled with high inventories and a muted domestic outlook, further pulled prices down.
• Logistics conditions improved as freight rates dropped and vessel availability increased, though these benefits failed to stimulate fresh CFR demand.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook for Q3 is cautious, with tepid restocking activity in the industrial lubricants and detergent sectors. Offshore buyers are expected to continue deferring orders unless price competitiveness improves.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trend declined in Q2 due to falling ethylene input costs, although profit margins stayed under pressure from reduced spot price realizations.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Price was consistently under pressure, averaging USD 690/tonne across Q2. Ample supply and weak export appetite dragged offers lower.
• Price Forecast for Q3: Sentiment remains soft with little upside unless demand recovers meaningfully in export or packaging applications.
Europe
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index (FD Genoa, Italy) decreased by 4.38% during Q2 2025, dropping from USD 1,050/tonne in April to USD 1,004/tonne in June. The downtrend reflected tepid demand from European plasticizer and synthetic lubricants sectors alongside broad economic pressures.
• Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in July 2025?
Prices decreased due to persistent oversupply, easing ethylene costs, and lackluster demand in the surfactant and detergent sectors. Rising imports from Northwest Europe also contributed to localized oversupply.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Price trended downward across Q2, with supply chains remaining unconstrained and FD Genoa logistics showing no major interruptions.
• Regional Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trends followed feedstock ethylene's downtrend. April saw a temporary uptick due to port strikes and delays, but smooth operations resumed by June.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook for Q3 remains neutral to bearish. LAB and surfactant producers continue shifting to bio-based alternatives slowly, and tourism-related institutional cleaning demand may not offset weak retail consumption.
• Price Forecast for Q3: Stable-to-soft, unless new export routes to Eastern Europe or North Africa increase throughput.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index (FOB Al Jubail) trended lower through Q2 2025, falling by a total of 8.25% from USD 970/tonne in April to USD 890/tonne in June. The persistent decline reflected limited export interest and muted regional industrial demand.
• Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in July 2025?
While June saw some relief, the overall Q2 downtrend was driven by falling ethylene values, sluggish demand from China and Vietnam, and growing spot price competition across Asia. May also saw port congestion in Osaka, delaying outbound shipments.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Price remained volatile as buyers preferred to wait out fluctuating feedstock costs and downstream uncertainty.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trend remained favorable for producers in June following recovery from early Q2 supply bottlenecks like ENEOS Kawasaki's temporary outage. Margins stayed firm despite flat domestic demand.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook in Q3 hinges on China and Vietnam's LAB procurement cycle. Demand for high-purity LAB used in eco-labeled and export-oriented detergents remains supportive but not strong enough for a full rebound.
• Price Forecast for Q3: Modestly positive, depending on how quickly exports resume and if congestion issues stay resolved.
Middle East & Africa (MEA)
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index (FOB Al Jubail) declined steadily throughout Q2 2025, with values falling from USD 970/tonne in April to USD 920/tonne in May, and ending at USD 890/tonne in June, marking a quarter-on-quarter downward trend driven by weak global offtake and soft regional downstream activity.
• Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in July 2025?
Prices decreased due to global oversupply, soft regional demand, and reduced exports to Asia (China, Vietnam) and the UAE. Falling ethylene feedstock values also contributed to the negative trend.
• Domestic Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Prices weakened despite stable operations and no significant port congestion at Al Jubail.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trend declined, reflecting cheaper ethylene feedstock. However, subdued international prices capped profitability.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook for Q3 remains stable, supported by strong domestic LAB production used in detergents for institutional and religious applications. Export demand from Africa and South Asia offers some uplift, particularly in the oilfield and cleaning sectors.
• Price Forecast for Q3: Likely rangebound, with minor support from export-linked LAB demand but capped by weak spot price competitiveness.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) market experienced volatile pricing, with an initial price surge in January followed by consecutive declines in February and March. January saw a +7.14% price increase, primarily due to a 16.29% rise in ethylene costs, elevated naphtha and crude oil prices, and tight supply caused by refinery maintenance, port congestion, and adverse weather.
Strong export demand from India provided further support. However, February marked a turning point, with LAO prices falling by 6.67% despite slightly rising ethylene values, as downstream demand plateaued and supply chain bottlenecks weighed on trade flows.
March continued the bearish momentum, with a steep 10.20% drop in LAO prices driven by a 13.76% plunge in ethylene costs, weak demand from the polyethylene and detergent sectors, and persistent logistical disruptions at major U.S. ports. Compared to Q4 2024, which was already bearish due to low industrial demand and oversupply—Q1 2025 began with some strength but quickly reverted to a downtrend. Going forward, a sustained recovery will depend on stronger downstream uptake and improved feedstock market dynamics.
APAC
During Q1 2025, LAO prices in South Korea exhibited modest fluctuations, influenced primarily by ethylene feedstock price volatility, logistical challenges, and cautious downstream demand. Prices declined by 1.02% in January, rose by 2.02% in February, and dropped again by 1.01% in March, reflecting a largely stable-to-weak pricing trend. Ethylene and naphtha price movements were inconsistent, with early-quarter cost pressures easing by March due to oversupply and weak procurement. Despite steady demand from the detergent and surfactant sectors, overall market sentiment was cautious, keeping LAO pricing under pressure.
Production remained steady across the quarter, supported by South Korea’s robust ethylene capacity. However, operational challenges such as persistent port congestion at Busan and regional oversupply led to shipment delays and inventory strain. Supply chains faced intermittent disruptions, while producers adjusted operating rates to protect margins amid softening prices.
Demand trended from stable to subdued, with steady offtake in January and February, followed by a marked slowdown in March. Weak consumption in surfactants, lubricants, and polyethylene derivatives, along with economic sluggishness, limited price support despite regional detergent market growth. Overall, Q1 demand was moderate but weakening by quarter-end.
Europe
In Q1 2025, LAO prices in Germany followed a fluctuating trend, starting with moderate gains and ending with a notable decline. January saw a 1.01% price rise, supported by an uptick in ethylene and naphtha prices and a modest recovery in manufacturing activity. February brought a sharper 9.00% increase as constrained ethylene supply, logistical bottlenecks at ports like Antwerp and Hamburg, and reduced cracker operations tightened LAO availability, pushing prices upward despite stable demand.
However, this bullish momentum reversed in March, with LAO prices dropping by 6.42% in response to a 7.43% fall in ethylene costs. Overproduction, weak HDPE demand, and persistent port congestion led to high inventories and a bearish sentiment. Downstream sectors—especially packaging, construction, and home care—showed limited growth, and consumer confidence remained tepid.
Compared to Q4 2024’s consistent price decline, Q1 2025 began with some recovery but ended on a soft note. The quarter closed with oversupply pressures and tepid demand, indicating that market normalization will require stronger downstream uptake and improved supply chain efficiency.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) C10 prices in the U.S. continued their downward trend, with a 9.9% decline in November, following a similar drop in October. The main drivers of this decline were persistent market softness, weak downstream demand, and falling ethylene prices, a key production cost.
Despite logistical disruptions, including the shutdown of Shell Chemical’s Deer Park facility and challenges at Gulf Coast and Canadian ports, the market remained oversupplied, limiting the impact of these disruptions on prices. The approach of the holiday season further dampened industrial activity, especially in the detergent and surfactant sectors, which showed weak demand and reduced production volumes.
The broader industrial slowdown, high financing costs, and cautious inventory management further dampened demand. High financing costs and cautious inventory management also contributed to the bearish market outlook, with no immediate recovery in sight. Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain subdued in Q1 2025, with weak demand and economic uncertainty continuing to weigh on LAO prices, although some post-holiday recovery is possible.
APAC
In Q4 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) prices in India exhibited mixed trends, with a bullish start in October driven by geopolitical tensions and reduced production in Saudi Arabia, followed by a 4.9% decline in November due to oversupply and subdued demand. October saw a surge in prices as tightened supply and improved demand from construction, surfactants, and detergents supported market momentum. However, by November, the influx of low-priced imports from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, coupled with weak recovery in downstream sectors like polyolefins and linear alkyl benzene intermediates, led to downward price pressure. Domestic producers like Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) offered discounts to manage inventories, but excess global supply persisted, limiting price recovery. While the construction sector showed intermittent support with a modest rebound in October, broader economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties restrained sustained growth in consumption. Despite attempts to increase polyethylene prices, LAO demand remained weak in November and December, reflecting overall economic pressures. Looking ahead, market stabilization will depend on broader economic improvements and increased downstream activity.
Europe
In Q4 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) prices in Germany experienced a continuous decline due to weak global ethylene market conditions and subdued demand across key downstream sectors, particularly surfactants and detergents. The market faced supply-side challenges, including disruptions in U.S. exports and Middle Eastern production, but these were not sufficient to boost demand, which remained sluggish. Low-capacity utilization at production plants and logistical inefficiencies contributed to a bearish market outlook. Despite some supply chain disruptions, such as the INEOS Olefins unit shutdown, demand for LAO failed to rebound, reflecting broader economic uncertainty and reduced consumption across industries. The quarter closed with minimal price support, and producers were forced to lower quotations to manage excess inventory. Looking ahead to Q1 2025, the market is expected to remain weak, with any potential recovery hinging on improvements in global ethylene dynamics, downstream consumption, and the resolution of ongoing supply chain challenges. More so, market stabilization will depend on broader economic improvements and increased downstream activity.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American region saw a notable rise in Linear Alpha Olefin prices, with the USA experiencing the most significant price shifts. Several factors contributed to this increase, including rising ethylene prices and maintenance shutdowns at major chemical plants due to hurricane season. Additionally, hurricanes caused disruptions to facilities such as Shell Chemical Company, Sasol Chemical Industries, and Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LP, which further strained supply chains.
In the USA, the pricing environment remained particularly strong throughout the quarter. Prices assessed for the month of September surged by 19% compared to the assessed price previous year. The prices surged by 16% throughout the quarter cumulatively. This bullish trend was largely influenced by the ongoing supply chain challenges and escalating ethylene costs.
By the end of the quarter, the price for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend FOB US Gulf reached USD 1190/MT. This reflects the sustained upward momentum in the market, driven primarily by supply chain disruptions and the rising cost of key raw materials like ethylene.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 2024, the Linear Alpha Olefin market in the APAC region saw a substantial decline, with Japan experiencing the most significant price drops. The quarter was marked by a challenging pricing environment, driven by several critical factors. Supply disruptions, including maintenance shutdowns at key production facilities, led to supply tightening, which compounded the downward pressure on prices throughout the region. In addition to these supply issues, weakening demand for end-use products and a persistent oversupply situation further exacerbated the price decline. Seasonal factors played a prominent role, as prices in September 2024 registered a 17% drop compared to the same period in 2023. This price drop was largely driven by excess supply, declining polymer prices, easing ethylene costs, and weaker demand sentiment, which weighed heavily on the market. Over the course of the quarter, prices decreased by 5%, with the final price for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend FOB Osaka in Japan settling at USD 1,020/MT by the quarter's end. Overall, the APAC region, particularly Japan, faced a bearish pricing landscape, with negative sentiment prevailing due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and economic challenges
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European region experienced a bullish quarter for Linear Alpha Olefin prices, marked by significant fluctuations. Various factors influenced market prices, including a decrease in demand for homecare and personal care products, impacting the supply-demand dynamics. The pricing environment was further affected by lower production levels, particularly in key facilities such as those operated by Shell. Additionally, high freight charges and limited tanker slot availabilities added pressure on procurement activities. Germany, in particular, witnessed the most substantial price changes during the quarter. Overall trends indicated a negative correlation in price changes due to lowering of energy and feedstock, with prices of September 2024 falling 8% below the 2023’s September assessed price. However, a notable uptick of 9% was observed this quarter over previous quarter, showcasing some resilience in pricing. The quarter-ending price for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 FD Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 1080/MT, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the market. Disruptions and plant shutdowns further impacted the pricing landscape, contributing to the overall bearish sentiment in the region.
Middle East and Africa
In Q3 2024, the Linear Alpha Olefin pricing in the MEA region witnessed a significant decline, with Saudi Arabia experiencing the most pronounced price changes. The quarter was characterized by a negative pricing environment, influenced by various factors. Supply disruptions, such as the PetroRabigh plant shutdown due to a cracker outage, contributed to supply constraints, impacting prices. Additionally, lower demand for end-use products, supply tightening further checked the declining prices. The correlation between price changes and seasonality was evident, with a notable 17% decline in prices assessed in September 2024 over September 2023. The drop was governed largely by oversupply and falling polymer prices, easing feedstocks like ethylene as well as weaker demand sentiment. The price comparison throughout the quarter revealed a 5% drop. This downward trend culminated in a final price of USD 930/MT for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia at the end of the quarter. Overall, the quarter reflected a challenging pricing landscape with a negative sentiment prevailing throughout.
Latin America
In Q3 2024, the South American region experienced a sharp increase in Linear Alpha Olefin prices. This surge was driven by several key factors, including supply disruptions caused by plant shutdowns, rising demand for downstream derivatives, and higher freight costs. The market saw bullish sentiment throughout the quarter, fueled by tightened supply conditions and strong demand dynamics. Brazil, in particular, experienced significant price shifts, with an 11% increase compared to the prices assessed in September 2024 over September 2023. The cumulative price movement this quarter witnessed a 10% price hike, reflecting the strong market momentum and growing demand. Despite challenges such as elevated freight charges and production constraints, the market remained resilient, and prices continued to rise steadily. By the end of the quarter, the price of Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend CFR Santos Port in Brazil reached USD 1090/MT. This upward trend highlights the competitiveness of the market, even amidst ongoing disruptions and economic fluctuations. The ability to maintain positive pricing momentum in such a volatile environment showcases the market's robustness.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What is the current price of Linear Alpha Olefin (C10)?
As of June 2025, the spot price stands at:
• USD 680/tonne FOB US Gulf
• USD 1020/tonne FD Genoa (Italy)
• USD 920/tonne FOB Osaka (Japan)
• USD 890/tonne FOB Al Jubail (Saudi Arabia)
2. Who are the top Linear Alpha Olefin producers in the United States?
Major producers include Chevron Phillips Chemical, INEOS Oligomers, and ExxonMobil Chemical, with production hubs concentrated along the US Gulf Coast.
3. What are the main downstream applications of Linear Alpha Olefins?
LAOs are primarily used in LAB (Linear Alkyl Benzene) production, synthetic lubricants, plasticizers, HDPE/LLDPE production, and detergents & surfactants.
4. Will Linear Alpha Olefin prices rise in Q3 2025?
Market outlook remains soft-to-stable, with modest upside possible in Asia and MEA if detergent demand picks up or if ethylene rebounds. However, oversupply and weak downstream pull may keep prices subdued.
