For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index rose by 0.92% quarter-over-quarter, driven by exports.
• The average Linear Alpha Olefin price for the quarter was approximately USD 730.00/MT showing stability.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Price softened in June amid ample inventories and muted downstream procurement.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Price Forecast signals volatility ahead as ethylene feedstock and export demand shift.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trend remained elevated on ethylene pressure, constraining producer margin recovery.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook shows cautious domestic restocking, while export hesitancy limits near-term consumption.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index eased as improving logistics and competitive exports pressured FOB sellers.
• Inventory accumulation in Texas and Louisiana pressured spot availability, while exporters adjusted offers, stimulating offtake.
Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in September 2025 in North America?
• Seasonal demand taper after summer peak reduced procurement, lowering LAO offtake and easing price momentum.
• Ethylene feedstock cost softening improved production economics slightly, reducing immediate upstream pressure on LAO supply.
• Improved vessel availability, lower freight reduced logistic costs, intensifying export competition and pressuring FOB values.
APAC
• In Japan, the Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index rose by 2.63% quarter-over-quarter, driven by ethylene.
• The average Linear Alpha Olefin price for the quarter was approximately USD 520.00/MT, per offers.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Price exhibited strength; export demand and regional ethylene costs supported offers.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trend stayed firm on naphtha-linked ethylene and tight upstream allocation.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook positive; LAB procurement from China and South Korea supports offtake.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Price Forecast shows short-term upside risks amid balanced inventories and seasonal restocking.
• Export logistics and port congestion limited flows, keeping the Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index supported.
• Inventory levels remained balanced; brief plant outages did not disrupt export allocations or market stability.
Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Export demand recovery from China and South Korea supported offers, outweighing subdued domestic consumption declines.
• Firm naphtha and ethylene feedstock costs sustained production costs, limiting downward pressure on export pricing.
• Seasonal port congestion and typhoon-related delays constrained shipments, prompting exporters to consistently maintain firmer quotations.
Europe
• In Germany, the Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index fell by 0.66% quarter-over-quarter, driven by oversupply.
• The average Linear Alpha Olefin price for the quarter was approximately USD 1003.33/MT, reported period-end.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Price showed limited upside as domestic inventories rose while offtake subdued.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Price Forecast indicates modest swings, balancing ethylene cost signals and seasonal demand.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trend tracked ethylene movements, with feedstock easing dampening seller pricing.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook remains cautious as detergent and lubricant buyers limit procurement volumes.
• Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index movement mirrored inventory builds, export competition, and logistical constraints tightening.
• Major producer operating rates stayed high, preserving throughput while port delays constrained prompt market availability.
Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Domestic production and Belgian import flows raised stocks, reducing upward pressure on spot-FD prices.
• Ethylene corrected down mid-quarter, easing production costs and limiting sellers' ability to push higher prices.
• Port congestion intermittently tightened deliveries, but weak downstream offtake and destocking capped sustained price gains.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index rose by 2.84% quarter-over-quarter, on exports.
• The average Linear Alpha Olefin price for the quarter was approximately USD 966.67/MT, and stable.
• Prompt allocations tightened; Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Price strengthened as exporters prioritized contracted shipments overseas.
• Logistics frictions increased landed cost pressure; Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trend reflected firmer ethylene.
• Domestic LABSA activity sustained volumes; Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook supported by regional detergent restocking.
• Near-term balance likely; Linear Alpha Olefin Price Forecast indicates modest upside absent major feedstock shocks.
• Inventories rose; Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index remained sensitive to export demand, port throughput.
• Production largely uninterrupted at Al Jubail; prompt availability depends on port operations and cracker maintenance.
Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Stronger export inquiries tightened prompt availability, supporting higher offers despite ample domestic supply overall recently.
• Ethylene feedstock firming increased production cost pressure, prompting sellers to maintain or raise FOB offers.
• Port congestion and rerouting extended shipping times, reducing prompt volumes and significantly elevating market urgency.
South America
• In Brazil, the Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index fell by 0.72% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weaker downstream demand.
• The average Linear Alpha Olefin price for the quarter was approximately USD 923.33/MT CFR Santos
• Tight berthing and higher freight pushed Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Price, supporting short-term seller confidence
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Price Forecast signals volatility ahead as ethylene and logistics dynamics fluctuate
• Declining ethylene values softened the Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trend, moderating upstream margin pressure
• Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook remains subdued as LABSA inventory builds and detergent orders moderate
• Inventory inflows from the US and steady exports influenced Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index trajectory
• Port congestion variability prompted prebooking and cautious procurement, which significantly tempered near-term spot market liquidity
Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in September 2025 in South America?
• Persistent port congestion delayed discharges, constraining available supply and pressuring spot differentials further
• Moderate ethylene cost declines eased production cost pressures, enabling sellers to temper offers despite imports
• Weaker downstream LAB and detergent demand and elevated inventories reduced procurement urgency for Brazilian blenders
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index (FOB US Gulf) posted a marginal uptick in Q2 2025, rising by 1.36% from USD 1,030/tonne in April to USD 1,044/tonne in June. Despite fluctuating demand and mixed downstream conditions, spot prices held firm across the quarter.
• Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in July 2025?
The Price Index declined due to sluggish downstream demand (notably from lubricants and surfactants) and weakening ethylene feedstock values. A sharp drop in export volumes to China, Brazil, and Mexico, coupled with high inventories and a muted domestic outlook, further pulled prices down.
• Logistics conditions improved as freight rates dropped and vessel availability increased, though these benefits failed to stimulate fresh CFR demand.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook for Q3 is cautious, with tepid restocking activity in the industrial lubricants and detergent sectors. Offshore buyers are expected to continue deferring orders unless price competitiveness improves.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trend declined in Q2 due to falling ethylene input costs, although profit margins stayed under pressure from reduced spot price realizations.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Price was consistently under pressure, averaging USD 690/tonne across Q2. Ample supply and weak export appetite dragged offers lower.
• Price Forecast for Q3: Sentiment remains soft with little upside unless demand recovers meaningfully in export or packaging applications.
Europe
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index (FD Genoa, Italy) decreased by 4.38% during Q2 2025, dropping from USD 1,050/tonne in April to USD 1,004/tonne in June. The downtrend reflected tepid demand from European plasticizer and synthetic lubricants sectors alongside broad economic pressures.
• Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in July 2025?
Prices decreased due to persistent oversupply, easing ethylene costs, and lackluster demand in the surfactant and detergent sectors. Rising imports from Northwest Europe also contributed to localized oversupply.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Price trended downward across Q2, with supply chains remaining unconstrained and FD Genoa logistics showing no major interruptions.
• Regional Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trends followed feedstock ethylene's downtrend. April saw a temporary uptick due to port strikes and delays, but smooth operations resumed by June.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook for Q3 remains neutral to bearish. LAB and surfactant producers continue shifting to bio-based alternatives slowly, and tourism-related institutional cleaning demand may not offset weak retail consumption.
• Price Forecast for Q3: Stable-to-soft, unless new export routes to Eastern Europe or North Africa increase throughput.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index (FOB Al Jubail) trended lower through Q2 2025, falling by a total of 8.25% from USD 970/tonne in April to USD 890/tonne in June. The persistent decline reflected limited export interest and muted regional industrial demand.
• Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in July 2025?
While June saw some relief, the overall Q2 downtrend was driven by falling ethylene values, sluggish demand from China and Vietnam, and growing spot price competition across Asia. May also saw port congestion in Osaka, delaying outbound shipments.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Price remained volatile as buyers preferred to wait out fluctuating feedstock costs and downstream uncertainty.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trend remained favorable for producers in June following recovery from early Q2 supply bottlenecks like ENEOS Kawasaki's temporary outage. Margins stayed firm despite flat domestic demand.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook in Q3 hinges on China and Vietnam's LAB procurement cycle. Demand for high-purity LAB used in eco-labeled and export-oriented detergents remains supportive but not strong enough for a full rebound.
• Price Forecast for Q3: Modestly positive, depending on how quickly exports resume and if congestion issues stay resolved.
Middle East & Africa (MEA)
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Price Index (FOB Al Jubail) declined steadily throughout Q2 2025, with values falling from USD 970/tonne in April to USD 920/tonne in May, and ending at USD 890/tonne in June, marking a quarter-on-quarter downward trend driven by weak global offtake and soft regional downstream activity.
• Why did the price of Linear Alpha Olefin change in July 2025?
Prices decreased due to global oversupply, soft regional demand, and reduced exports to Asia (China, Vietnam) and the UAE. Falling ethylene feedstock values also contributed to the negative trend.
• Domestic Linear Alpha Olefin Spot Prices weakened despite stable operations and no significant port congestion at Al Jubail.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Production Cost Trend declined, reflecting cheaper ethylene feedstock. However, subdued international prices capped profitability.
• The Linear Alpha Olefin Demand Outlook for Q3 remains stable, supported by strong domestic LAB production used in detergents for institutional and religious applications. Export demand from Africa and South Asia offers some uplift, particularly in the oilfield and cleaning sectors.
• Price Forecast for Q3: Likely rangebound, with minor support from export-linked LAB demand but capped by weak spot price competitiveness.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) market experienced volatile pricing, with an initial price surge in January followed by consecutive declines in February and March. January saw a +7.14% price increase, primarily due to a 16.29% rise in ethylene costs, elevated naphtha and crude oil prices, and tight supply caused by refinery maintenance, port congestion, and adverse weather.
Strong export demand from India provided further support. However, February marked a turning point, with LAO prices falling by 6.67% despite slightly rising ethylene values, as downstream demand plateaued and supply chain bottlenecks weighed on trade flows.
March continued the bearish momentum, with a steep 10.20% drop in LAO prices driven by a 13.76% plunge in ethylene costs, weak demand from the polyethylene and detergent sectors, and persistent logistical disruptions at major U.S. ports. Compared to Q4 2024, which was already bearish due to low industrial demand and oversupply—Q1 2025 began with some strength but quickly reverted to a downtrend. Going forward, a sustained recovery will depend on stronger downstream uptake and improved feedstock market dynamics.
APAC
During Q1 2025, LAO prices in South Korea exhibited modest fluctuations, influenced primarily by ethylene feedstock price volatility, logistical challenges, and cautious downstream demand. Prices declined by 1.02% in January, rose by 2.02% in February, and dropped again by 1.01% in March, reflecting a largely stable-to-weak pricing trend. Ethylene and naphtha price movements were inconsistent, with early-quarter cost pressures easing by March due to oversupply and weak procurement. Despite steady demand from the detergent and surfactant sectors, overall market sentiment was cautious, keeping LAO pricing under pressure.
Production remained steady across the quarter, supported by South Korea’s robust ethylene capacity. However, operational challenges such as persistent port congestion at Busan and regional oversupply led to shipment delays and inventory strain. Supply chains faced intermittent disruptions, while producers adjusted operating rates to protect margins amid softening prices.
Demand trended from stable to subdued, with steady offtake in January and February, followed by a marked slowdown in March. Weak consumption in surfactants, lubricants, and polyethylene derivatives, along with economic sluggishness, limited price support despite regional detergent market growth. Overall, Q1 demand was moderate but weakening by quarter-end.
Europe
In Q1 2025, LAO prices in Germany followed a fluctuating trend, starting with moderate gains and ending with a notable decline. January saw a 1.01% price rise, supported by an uptick in ethylene and naphtha prices and a modest recovery in manufacturing activity. February brought a sharper 9.00% increase as constrained ethylene supply, logistical bottlenecks at ports like Antwerp and Hamburg, and reduced cracker operations tightened LAO availability, pushing prices upward despite stable demand.
However, this bullish momentum reversed in March, with LAO prices dropping by 6.42% in response to a 7.43% fall in ethylene costs. Overproduction, weak HDPE demand, and persistent port congestion led to high inventories and a bearish sentiment. Downstream sectors—especially packaging, construction, and home care—showed limited growth, and consumer confidence remained tepid.
Compared to Q4 2024’s consistent price decline, Q1 2025 began with some recovery but ended on a soft note. The quarter closed with oversupply pressures and tepid demand, indicating that market normalization will require stronger downstream uptake and improved supply chain efficiency.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) C10 prices in the U.S. continued their downward trend, with a 9.9% decline in November, following a similar drop in October. The main drivers of this decline were persistent market softness, weak downstream demand, and falling ethylene prices, a key production cost.
Despite logistical disruptions, including the shutdown of Shell Chemical’s Deer Park facility and challenges at Gulf Coast and Canadian ports, the market remained oversupplied, limiting the impact of these disruptions on prices. The approach of the holiday season further dampened industrial activity, especially in the detergent and surfactant sectors, which showed weak demand and reduced production volumes.
The broader industrial slowdown, high financing costs, and cautious inventory management further dampened demand. High financing costs and cautious inventory management also contributed to the bearish market outlook, with no immediate recovery in sight. Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain subdued in Q1 2025, with weak demand and economic uncertainty continuing to weigh on LAO prices, although some post-holiday recovery is possible.
APAC
In Q4 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) prices in India exhibited mixed trends, with a bullish start in October driven by geopolitical tensions and reduced production in Saudi Arabia, followed by a 4.9% decline in November due to oversupply and subdued demand. October saw a surge in prices as tightened supply and improved demand from construction, surfactants, and detergents supported market momentum. However, by November, the influx of low-priced imports from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, coupled with weak recovery in downstream sectors like polyolefins and linear alkyl benzene intermediates, led to downward price pressure. Domestic producers like Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) offered discounts to manage inventories, but excess global supply persisted, limiting price recovery. While the construction sector showed intermittent support with a modest rebound in October, broader economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties restrained sustained growth in consumption. Despite attempts to increase polyethylene prices, LAO demand remained weak in November and December, reflecting overall economic pressures. Looking ahead, market stabilization will depend on broader economic improvements and increased downstream activity.
Europe
In Q4 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) prices in Germany experienced a continuous decline due to weak global ethylene market conditions and subdued demand across key downstream sectors, particularly surfactants and detergents. The market faced supply-side challenges, including disruptions in U.S. exports and Middle Eastern production, but these were not sufficient to boost demand, which remained sluggish. Low-capacity utilization at production plants and logistical inefficiencies contributed to a bearish market outlook. Despite some supply chain disruptions, such as the INEOS Olefins unit shutdown, demand for LAO failed to rebound, reflecting broader economic uncertainty and reduced consumption across industries. The quarter closed with minimal price support, and producers were forced to lower quotations to manage excess inventory. Looking ahead to Q1 2025, the market is expected to remain weak, with any potential recovery hinging on improvements in global ethylene dynamics, downstream consumption, and the resolution of ongoing supply chain challenges. More so, market stabilization will depend on broader economic improvements and increased downstream activity.
