For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) market experienced volatile pricing, with an initial price surge in January followed by consecutive declines in February and March. January saw a +7.14% price increase, primarily due to a 16.29% rise in ethylene costs, elevated naphtha and crude oil prices, and tight supply caused by refinery maintenance, port congestion, and adverse weather.
Strong export demand from India provided further support. However, February marked a turning point, with LAO prices falling by 6.67% despite slightly rising ethylene values, as downstream demand plateaued and supply chain bottlenecks weighed on trade flows.
March continued the bearish momentum, with a steep 10.20% drop in LAO prices driven by a 13.76% plunge in ethylene costs, weak demand from the polyethylene and detergent sectors, and persistent logistical disruptions at major U.S. ports. Compared to Q4 2024, which was already bearish due to low industrial demand and oversupply—Q1 2025 began with some strength but quickly reverted to a downtrend. Going forward, a sustained recovery will depend on stronger downstream uptake and improved feedstock market dynamics.
APAC
During Q1 2025, LAO prices in South Korea exhibited modest fluctuations, influenced primarily by ethylene feedstock price volatility, logistical challenges, and cautious downstream demand. Prices declined by 1.02% in January, rose by 2.02% in February, and dropped again by 1.01% in March, reflecting a largely stable-to-weak pricing trend. Ethylene and naphtha price movements were inconsistent, with early-quarter cost pressures easing by March due to oversupply and weak procurement. Despite steady demand from the detergent and surfactant sectors, overall market sentiment was cautious, keeping LAO pricing under pressure.
Production remained steady across the quarter, supported by South Korea’s robust ethylene capacity. However, operational challenges such as persistent port congestion at Busan and regional oversupply led to shipment delays and inventory strain. Supply chains faced intermittent disruptions, while producers adjusted operating rates to protect margins amid softening prices.
Demand trended from stable to subdued, with steady offtake in January and February, followed by a marked slowdown in March. Weak consumption in surfactants, lubricants, and polyethylene derivatives, along with economic sluggishness, limited price support despite regional detergent market growth. Overall, Q1 demand was moderate but weakening by quarter-end.
Europe
In Q1 2025, LAO prices in Germany followed a fluctuating trend, starting with moderate gains and ending with a notable decline. January saw a 1.01% price rise, supported by an uptick in ethylene and naphtha prices and a modest recovery in manufacturing activity. February brought a sharper 9.00% increase as constrained ethylene supply, logistical bottlenecks at ports like Antwerp and Hamburg, and reduced cracker operations tightened LAO availability, pushing prices upward despite stable demand.
However, this bullish momentum reversed in March, with LAO prices dropping by 6.42% in response to a 7.43% fall in ethylene costs. Overproduction, weak HDPE demand, and persistent port congestion led to high inventories and a bearish sentiment. Downstream sectors—especially packaging, construction, and home care—showed limited growth, and consumer confidence remained tepid.
Compared to Q4 2024’s consistent price decline, Q1 2025 began with some recovery but ended on a soft note. The quarter closed with oversupply pressures and tepid demand, indicating that market normalization will require stronger downstream uptake and improved supply chain efficiency.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) C10 prices in the U.S. continued their downward trend, with a 9.9% decline in November, following a similar drop in October. The main drivers of this decline were persistent market softness, weak downstream demand, and falling ethylene prices, a key production cost.
Despite logistical disruptions, including the shutdown of Shell Chemical’s Deer Park facility and challenges at Gulf Coast and Canadian ports, the market remained oversupplied, limiting the impact of these disruptions on prices. The approach of the holiday season further dampened industrial activity, especially in the detergent and surfactant sectors, which showed weak demand and reduced production volumes.
The broader industrial slowdown, high financing costs, and cautious inventory management further dampened demand. High financing costs and cautious inventory management also contributed to the bearish market outlook, with no immediate recovery in sight. Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain subdued in Q1 2025, with weak demand and economic uncertainty continuing to weigh on LAO prices, although some post-holiday recovery is possible.
APAC
In Q4 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) prices in India exhibited mixed trends, with a bullish start in October driven by geopolitical tensions and reduced production in Saudi Arabia, followed by a 4.9% decline in November due to oversupply and subdued demand. October saw a surge in prices as tightened supply and improved demand from construction, surfactants, and detergents supported market momentum. However, by November, the influx of low-priced imports from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, coupled with weak recovery in downstream sectors like polyolefins and linear alkyl benzene intermediates, led to downward price pressure. Domestic producers like Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) offered discounts to manage inventories, but excess global supply persisted, limiting price recovery. While the construction sector showed intermittent support with a modest rebound in October, broader economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties restrained sustained growth in consumption. Despite attempts to increase polyethylene prices, LAO demand remained weak in November and December, reflecting overall economic pressures. Looking ahead, market stabilization will depend on broader economic improvements and increased downstream activity.
Europe
In Q4 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) prices in Germany experienced a continuous decline due to weak global ethylene market conditions and subdued demand across key downstream sectors, particularly surfactants and detergents. The market faced supply-side challenges, including disruptions in U.S. exports and Middle Eastern production, but these were not sufficient to boost demand, which remained sluggish. Low-capacity utilization at production plants and logistical inefficiencies contributed to a bearish market outlook. Despite some supply chain disruptions, such as the INEOS Olefins unit shutdown, demand for LAO failed to rebound, reflecting broader economic uncertainty and reduced consumption across industries. The quarter closed with minimal price support, and producers were forced to lower quotations to manage excess inventory. Looking ahead to Q1 2025, the market is expected to remain weak, with any potential recovery hinging on improvements in global ethylene dynamics, downstream consumption, and the resolution of ongoing supply chain challenges. More so, market stabilization will depend on broader economic improvements and increased downstream activity.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American region saw a notable rise in Linear Alpha Olefin prices, with the USA experiencing the most significant price shifts. Several factors contributed to this increase, including rising ethylene prices and maintenance shutdowns at major chemical plants due to hurricane season. Additionally, hurricanes caused disruptions to facilities such as Shell Chemical Company, Sasol Chemical Industries, and Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LP, which further strained supply chains.
In the USA, the pricing environment remained particularly strong throughout the quarter. Prices assessed for the month of September surged by 19% compared to the assessed price previous year. The prices surged by 16% throughout the quarter cumulatively. This bullish trend was largely influenced by the ongoing supply chain challenges and escalating ethylene costs.
By the end of the quarter, the price for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend FOB US Gulf reached USD 1190/MT. This reflects the sustained upward momentum in the market, driven primarily by supply chain disruptions and the rising cost of key raw materials like ethylene.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 2024, the Linear Alpha Olefin market in the APAC region saw a substantial decline, with Japan experiencing the most significant price drops. The quarter was marked by a challenging pricing environment, driven by several critical factors. Supply disruptions, including maintenance shutdowns at key production facilities, led to supply tightening, which compounded the downward pressure on prices throughout the region. In addition to these supply issues, weakening demand for end-use products and a persistent oversupply situation further exacerbated the price decline. Seasonal factors played a prominent role, as prices in September 2024 registered a 17% drop compared to the same period in 2023. This price drop was largely driven by excess supply, declining polymer prices, easing ethylene costs, and weaker demand sentiment, which weighed heavily on the market. Over the course of the quarter, prices decreased by 5%, with the final price for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend FOB Osaka in Japan settling at USD 1,020/MT by the quarter's end. Overall, the APAC region, particularly Japan, faced a bearish pricing landscape, with negative sentiment prevailing due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and economic challenges
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European region experienced a bullish quarter for Linear Alpha Olefin prices, marked by significant fluctuations. Various factors influenced market prices, including a decrease in demand for homecare and personal care products, impacting the supply-demand dynamics. The pricing environment was further affected by lower production levels, particularly in key facilities such as those operated by Shell. Additionally, high freight charges and limited tanker slot availabilities added pressure on procurement activities. Germany, in particular, witnessed the most substantial price changes during the quarter. Overall trends indicated a negative correlation in price changes due to lowering of energy and feedstock, with prices of September 2024 falling 8% below the 2023’s September assessed price. However, a notable uptick of 9% was observed this quarter over previous quarter, showcasing some resilience in pricing. The quarter-ending price for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 FD Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 1080/MT, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the market. Disruptions and plant shutdowns further impacted the pricing landscape, contributing to the overall bearish sentiment in the region.
Middle East and Africa
In Q3 2024, the Linear Alpha Olefin pricing in the MEA region witnessed a significant decline, with Saudi Arabia experiencing the most pronounced price changes. The quarter was characterized by a negative pricing environment, influenced by various factors. Supply disruptions, such as the PetroRabigh plant shutdown due to a cracker outage, contributed to supply constraints, impacting prices. Additionally, lower demand for end-use products, supply tightening further checked the declining prices. The correlation between price changes and seasonality was evident, with a notable 17% decline in prices assessed in September 2024 over September 2023. The drop was governed largely by oversupply and falling polymer prices, easing feedstocks like ethylene as well as weaker demand sentiment. The price comparison throughout the quarter revealed a 5% drop. This downward trend culminated in a final price of USD 930/MT for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia at the end of the quarter. Overall, the quarter reflected a challenging pricing landscape with a negative sentiment prevailing throughout.
Latin America
In Q3 2024, the South American region experienced a sharp increase in Linear Alpha Olefin prices. This surge was driven by several key factors, including supply disruptions caused by plant shutdowns, rising demand for downstream derivatives, and higher freight costs. The market saw bullish sentiment throughout the quarter, fueled by tightened supply conditions and strong demand dynamics. Brazil, in particular, experienced significant price shifts, with an 11% increase compared to the prices assessed in September 2024 over September 2023. The cumulative price movement this quarter witnessed a 10% price hike, reflecting the strong market momentum and growing demand. Despite challenges such as elevated freight charges and production constraints, the market remained resilient, and prices continued to rise steadily. By the end of the quarter, the price of Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend CFR Santos Port in Brazil reached USD 1090/MT. This upward trend highlights the competitiveness of the market, even amidst ongoing disruptions and economic fluctuations. The ability to maintain positive pricing momentum in such a volatile environment showcases the market's robustness.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) pricing in North America has experienced a pronounced upward trend, driven by multiple market dynamics. The ongoing increase in feedstock ethylene and ethane prices, coupled with high freight charges and lower slot availabilities on tankers, has significantly impacted the LAO market. Rising natural gas prices and a shrinking ethane premium further exacerbated the cost pressures. Additionally, supply constraints due to unplanned plant shutdowns, such as those at ExxonMobil's Baytown and Shell Chemicals' Deer Park facilities, have tightened the market, leading to elevated prices.
Focusing on the USA, the region has seen the most substantial price changes. Throughout the quarter, the USA has maintained a bullish market sentiment, influenced by strong domestic demand for detergents, surfactants, and lubricants. Seasonal factors, especially the summer procurement period, have further bolstered demand, while the anticipation of hurricane season added upward pressure on prices due to potential supply disruptions. The overall trend has been one of price convergence between domestic and export deliveries, reflecting intense competition from Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers.
Throughout the quarter, prices have increased by 7%, indicating a consistent upward trajectory. The overall price change from the previous quarter is recorded at 10%. This quarter-ending price of USD 1180/MT for LAO C16-18 Blend FOB US Gulf underscores the positive pricing environment, driven by strong demand, supply constraints, and strategic inventory builds. Thus, the pricing context for LAO in North America during Q2 2024 has been decidedly positive, marked by robust market fundamentals and external pressures.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) market in Europe experienced a pronounced downturn, influenced by several significant factors. The region saw a notable decline in LAO prices, driven by increased feedstock availability, lower electricity charges, and high inventory levels following substantial stockpiling in previous months. This period was marked by bearish sentiment as a result of softened demand, deteriorating economic conditions, and persistent industrial downturns. Additionally, high freight charges and port congestion compounded the pricing pressures, making imports more cumbersome and costly. Furthermore, manufacturers faced intensified competition from Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers, which exacerbated the overall price decline. Germany, in particular, witnessed the steepest price changes in the region. The decreasing trend in LAO prices was significantly correlated with seasonality and industrial activities. The second quarter saw a marked 20% decrease over the quarter. This trend was further exacerbated by several disruptions and plant shutdowns, including the notable stoppage at the INEOS site, which profoundly impacted supply chains and pricing dynamics. The overall pricing environment in Germany was decidedly negative, reflecting the cumulative impact of reduced demand, heightened competition, and logistical challenges. At the end of Q2 2024, the price of Linear Alpha Olefin C12-14 FD Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 1120/MT, underscoring a consistent downward trajectory. This quarter underscores a challenging landscape for LAO, marked by adverse market conditions and significant price erosion.
Asia Pacific
The second quarter of 2024 has been particularly challenging for the Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) market in the APAC region, characterized by a consistent downward trend in pricing. A confluence of factors has contributed to this bearish market sentiment. Predominantly, weak demand from the lubrication industry, combined with stable yet insufficient demand from surfactants, has placed downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the downward revisions in upstream ethylene prices, driven by lower crude oil prices averaging $81.75/MT Brent basis, have further compounded the cost pressures. An oversupply situation has emerged as inventories remained high across the region, exacerbated by logistical delays and disruptions, including significant congestion at major ports like Malacca and Chinese ports. No major plant shutdowns were recorded during the quarter, indicating that the supply glut was not due to production but rather a mismatch between supply and demand dynamics. In Japan, the LAO market has experienced the most substantial price reductions. The overall trend demonstrates a significant decrease, heavily influenced by seasonal factors and a marked decline in industrial demand. The second quarter saw price drop of 19% throughout , culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 1310/MT for the Linear Alpha Olefin C16-18 Blend FOB Osaka. This stark decline highlights a negative pricing environment, underpinned by sustained oversupply and inadequate demand recovery. The persistent bearish sentiment suggests that the market remains under considerable strain, with little relief anticipated in the immediate future.
Middle East and Africa
In the second quarter of 2024, the Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) market in the MEA region experienced a pronounced decline in prices. This downturn was largely driven by several interlinked factors. Firstly, the global increase in crude prices during March and April heightened feedstock costs, exerting substantial pressure on the downstream ethylene value chain, including Linear Alpha Olefin. Concurrently, geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions in the MEA region further aggravated the situation by causing significant delays and elevated freight charges, which dissuaded international buyers and contributed to bearish market sentiment. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, which observed the most marked price changes, the overall trend showcased a persistent decrease. Seasonal factors, such as the reduced production hours during the Hajj pilgrimage, compounded the bearish outlook. The correlation between heightened supply and dwindling demand resulted in a stark price reduction, evident from the 16% drop throughout the second quarter. Despite no major plant shutdowns during this period, the market faced operational challenges due to geopolitical instability and fluctuating crude outputs. By the end of the quarter, the price of Linear Alpha Olefin C16-18 Blend FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia had plummeted to USD 1280/MT, underlining a negative pricing environment exacerbated by oversupply and weak demand dynamics. This quarter's performance highlights a market grappling with high inventory levels and subdued global economic activity, leading to consistently declining prices.
Latin America
In Q2 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) pricing in Latin America has experienced a pronounced upward trend, driven by multiple market dynamics. The ongoing increase in feedstock ethylene and ethane prices, coupled with high freight charges and lower slot availabilities on tankers, has significantly impacted the LAO market. Rising natural gas prices and a shrinking ethane premium further exacerbated the cost pressures. US revised their prices upwards for hexene deliveries into Latin America as domestic cost have continued to remain higher than US supply cost. Focusing on Brazil, the region has seen the most substantial price changes. Throughout the quarter, Brazil’s markets have maintained a bullish market sentiment, influenced by strong domestic demand for detergents, surfactants, and lubricants. Seasonal factors, especially the pre- winter procurement period, have further bolstered demand, while the anticipation of hurricane season in the Northern American regions added upward pressure on prices due to potential supply disruptions. The overall trend has been one of price convergence between domestic and export deliveries, reflecting intense competition from Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers. Throughout the quarter, prices have increased by 7%, indicating a consistent upward trajectory. This quarter-ending price of USD 1130/MT for LAO C16-18 Blend FOB US Gulf underscores the positive pricing environment, driven by strong demand, supply constraints, and strategic inventory builds. Thus, the pricing context for LAO in North America during Q2 2024 has been decidedly positive, marked by robust market fundamentals and external pressures.
