For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Index fell 13.45% quarter-over-quarter due to oversupply.
• The average Butane price for the quarter was approximately USD 6.43/MT across markets.
• Domestic Liquefied Petroleum Gas Spot Price remained under pressure as the Price Index showed inventories.
• Lower crude futures softened Liquefied Petroleum Gas Production Cost Trend, limiting support amid weak demand.
• Global Liquefied Petroleum Gas Demand Outlook remained muted due to seasonal offseason and naphtha substitution.
• Near-term Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Forecast indicates modest declines unless inventories normalize or exports recover.
• High storage levels pressured Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Index while export frictions weighed on shipments.
• Reduced run rates in plants constrained tightening while blending demand remained weak before prewinter stockpiling.
Why did the price of Liquefied Petroleum Gas change in September 2025 in North America?
• Oversupplied domestic stocks pressured prices as U.S. exports fell and inventories remained above seasonal averages.
• Lower crude oil futures reduced production costs, limiting price support amid oversupply and weak offtake.
• Logistical frictions and port delivery delays exacerbated selling pressure, restraining export flows, elevating domestic availability.
APAC
• In China, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Index fell by 12.34% quarter-over-quarter, driven by import surplus.
• The average Butane price for quarter was approximately USD 568.33/MT, reflecting subdued demand.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas Spot Price remained depressed amid abundant Middle Eastern cargoes and inventory levels.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Forecast anticipates recovery into autumn as seasonal restocking offsets persistent oversupply.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas Production Cost Trend marginally eased with lower crude reducing exporter manufacturing expenses.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas Demand Outlook weak; PDH and blending sectors delay procurement amid thin margins.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Index shows correction driven by inventory builds, exports and subdued offtake.
• Export demand weakness and freight volatility constrained arbitrage, keeping Liquefied Petroleum Gas spot assessments pressured.
Why did the price of Liquefied Petroleum Gas change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Surging Middle East and U.S. shipments expanded imports, building Chinese inventories, weighing on CIF assessments.
• Weaker downstream demand from PDH and blending sectors reduced offtake, limiting restocking and bearish sentiment.
• Declining crude feedstock costs lowered production expenses, export parity, while freight fluctuations affected landed competitiveness.
Europe
• In Germany, Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Index fell by 1% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weak seasonal demand.
• The average Liquefied Petroleum Gas price for the quarter was approximately USD 1053.67/MT, Hamburg FD.
• Liquidity-constrained river transport increased freight in July, pressuring landed costs while Liquefied Petroleum Gas Spot Price ranged.
• ARA and Hamburg offers capped arbitrage, influencing Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Index dynamics, limiting upside.
• Crude fluctuations tempered Liquefied Petroleum Gas Production Cost Trend, reducing sellers' willingness to push premiums.
• Butane blending recovery improved Liquefied Petroleum Gas Demand Outlook, prompting selective pre-season purchasing by refiners.
• Robust inventory abroad pressured import economics, shaping near-term Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Forecast softness overall.
• Congestion Northern European ports tightened supply chains, creating inland differentials reflected in the Price Index.
Why did the price of Liquefied Petroleum Gas change in September 2025 in Europe?
• While prices held steady, the overall market tone shifted toward bullishness as September began. Renewed bidding interest in the European propane large cargo segment, tightening contango in the forward curve.
• Elevated Rhine transport costs and port congestion raised logistics expenses, partially offsetting downward pressure overall.
• High exporting inventories and subdued arbitrage limited import-driven support despite modest crude-related manufacturing cost increases.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Index fell by 13.6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting oversupply.
• The average Butane price for the quarter was approximately USD 508.33/MT, per assessments.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas Spot Price remained pressured by inventories and weak Asian procurement, widening arbitrage.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas Production Cost Trend eased as crude feedstock softened, lowering ex-works offers regionally.
• High inventories and exports pushed the Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Index lower despite balanced supply.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas Demand Outlook remains muted with weak blending and PDH activity delaying recovery.
• Short-term Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Forecast indicates range-bound September levels before possible modest autumn appreciation.
• Export demand remained selective, with freight and arbitrage dynamics continuing to influence LPG market balances.
Why did the price of Liquefied Petroleum Gas change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Regional oversupply from increased Middle Eastern exports raised inventories, keeping stable September prices.
• Easing crude feedstock costs reduced LPG production cost trend, enabling exporters to cut selling prices.
• Soft regional demand and weak PDH margins in Asia limited offtake, keeping spot interest subdued.
South America
• In Brazil, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Index fell by 10.09% quarter-over-quarter, due to logistics.
• The average Butane price for the quarter was approximately USD 546.67/MT, CFR Santos.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas Spot Price softened as ample US inventories and rerouted barrels improved availability.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Forecast shows firmness as blending restocking and subsidy demand support prices.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas Production Cost Trend rose as crude and freight increases pressured landed economics.
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas Demand Outlook strengthened as voucher rollout and blender pre-buying raised regional uptake.
• Inventory builds in Atlantic contained upside, while Petrobras operations and port congestion affected supply.
• Export flow shifts and shipping delays limited prompt availability, while distant inventories moderated price pressure.
Why did the price of Liquefied Petroleum Gas change in September 2025 in South America?
• Voucher-fuelled household demand and blender pre-stocking increased prompt consumption across voucher-dense Brazilian regions in September.
• Higher crude and freight elevated production and landed costs, further tightening arbitrage and pressuring margins.
• Port congestion, vessel waits and rerouted US barrels disrupted logistics, creating localized tightness across Brazil
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• LPG Price Index in China declined during Q2 2025, with Propane CFR Shanghai settling at USD 665/MT and Butane CFR Shanghai at USD 630/MT by early June. The bearish price movement was driven by Saudi Aramco’s lowered contract prices and reduced crude oil costs, prompting deep discounts on exports.
• Market sentiment remained weak due to warmer weather, seasonal demand slowdown, and sluggish buying activity from the petrochemical and blending sectors.
• Why did the price of LPG change in July 2025 in China?
• Prices held stable amid persistent oversupply and limited demand recovery. Despite lower production costs, subdued interest from PDH units and gasoline blenders kept gains capped.
• The LPG Production Cost Trend declined due to a 1.8% drop in upstream crude prices following OPEC+’s output hike. Ample U.S. and Middle Eastern supplies further pressured production and delivery costs.
• LPG Demand Outlook remained muted. Prior restocking in April and post-Dragon Boat Festival slowdown restricted fresh procurement. Butane demand dropped due to low blending activity, while propane use in PDH units softened amid weak margins.
• Domestic procurement in China stayed subdued, as high inventories and trade uncertainty deterred new orders despite reduced tariffs on U.S. LPG.
North America
• LPG Price Index in the USA declined steadily by 12.6% during Q2 2025, with Propane DEL Texas falling to USD 7.5/MMBTU and Butane FD Texas to USD 7.1/MMBTU by late June. Prices fell due to a continued slump in export demand, high domestic inventories, and off-season consumption trends.
• Despite easing US-China trade tensions and reduced tariffs, Asian demand remained muted, with buyers preferring Middle Eastern LPG. This diverted volumes back to the domestic market, intensifying the oversupply.
• Why did the price of LPG change in July 2025 in the US?
• Prices held weak due to peak inventory levels, subdued global demand, and minor port congestion issues limiting export clearances.
• The LPG Production Cost Trend eased as crude oil prices declined 4.6% after OPEC+ increased output. This lowered feedstock costs and encouraged deeper producer discounts, further pressuring prices.
• LPG Demand Outlook was bearish. Prior restocking in Asia in April, combined with seasonal demand reductions in heating and blending sectors, restricted fresh international orders.
• Domestic procurement in the USA remained stagnant, as inventories surged 4.5 million barrels in late June—14% above the five-year average—while export volumes declined, leading to weaker fundamentals overall.
Europe
• LPG Price Index in Europe declined by 12.5% throughout Q2 2025, with minor fluctuations. By the end of June, Propane CFR Antwerp settled at USD 470/MT, while Butane CFR Antwerp stood at USD 475/MT.
• Prices remained range-bound in June amid soft seasonal demand, logistical disruptions, and ample supply from the U.S. Despite elevated freight costs due to low Rhine water levels, weak consumer appetite, and competitive ARA refinery pricing kept price levels in check.
• Why did the price of LPG change in July 2025 in Europe?
• LPG prices held flat in early July despite transportation challenges. Weak demand from the petrochemical and blending sectors, alongside high inventories and limited trans-Atlantic arbitrage, offset cost-side pressures caused by low barge loading capacity and port congestion.
• The LPG Production Cost Trend was shaped by lower crude oil prices, which fell by 1.8% in May following OPEC+'s output hike. Ample propane inventories in the U.S. and declining freight rates to Europe supported a drop in cost-push pressure. However, persistent logistical issues across Northern Europe balanced the impact.
• LPG Demand Outlook remained bearish. Warmer weather, the end of heating season, and subdued petrochemical activity weakened both propane and butane procurement. Buyers remained cautious amid economic uncertainty, tariff-related trade shifts, and high stock levels.
• The export momentum of LPG to Europe increased as U.S. cargoes, diverted from China due to tariffs, entered the European market. However, this inflow created a localized oversupply, keeping prices capped.
• Domestic procurement in Europe stayed conservative. End-users and distributors focused on stock drawdowns and avoided bulk replenishment amid logistical uncertainty and weak end-use sector performance.
South America
• LPG Price Index in Brazil declined by 5.1% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with Butane CFR Santos at USD 583/MT and Propane at USD 505/MT, unchanged despite ongoing logistical disruptions.
• Why did the price of LPG remain stable in Brazil?
• While warmer weather capped demand and prevented price hikes, supply chain delays—due to port congestion, flooding, and a customs strike—restricted availability and offset downward price pressure.
• Crude oil feedstock prices eased 1.8% after OPEC+ raised output, lowering manufacturing costs. Despite this, surging freight charges from the U.S. and berth delays in Santos port limited smooth LPG inflow.
• Manufacturing & Supply Dynamics were stable as ample U.S. inventories and reduced Asian demand redirected LPG cargoes to Brazil. However, logistical setbacks, including long vessel wait times and capacity loading issues, restricted full-volume deliveries.
• Demand Outlook remained subdued. The petrochemical and blending sectors entered their off-season, and consumer demand weakened due to front-loaded purchases in April.
• Domestic propane and butane demand continued to soften due to mild weather and slower industrial activity, despite government support programs like “Gas para Todos.” Overall, a stable supply met with weak demand kept LPG prices rangebound in Q2 2025.
Middle East (Saudi Arabia)
• LPG Price Index in Saudi Arabia declined by 4.4% during Q2 2025, with Propane Ex-Work Dhahran settling at USD 600/MT and Butane at USD 570/MT by the end of June. Saudi Aramco reduced its contract prices for both propane and butane amid falling upstream crude oil prices, which dropped 1.8% following OPEC+’s agreement to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day.
• The LPG market remained under pressure due to oversupply as Asian buyers increasingly turned to Middle Eastern cargoes in place of U.S. volumes, especially after China’s import tariffs shifted trade dynamics.
• Why did the price of LPG change in July 2025 in Saudi Arabia?
• Prices remained weak as subdued buying activity in Asia and oversupplied fundamentals persisted, even after Chinese tariff reductions on U.S. LPG. Seasonal demand softness and prior restocking limited fresh procurement interest.
• The LPG Production Cost Trend declined amid reduced feedstock costs and record-high Saudi exports in March. Lower manufacturing expenses enabled suppliers to maintain aggressive pricing to retain market share in Asia and Europe.
• LPG Demand Outlook softened through Q2 2025. Global downstream demand for propane and butane dropped due to the end of heating season and a quiet blending sector. Despite some tariff-related stockpiling in April, overall export volumes declined month-on-month by May.
• Domestic procurement in Saudi Arabia stayed moderate due to minimal heating needs. Propane demand remained steady for cooking and industrial use, while butane demand for gasoline blending declined seasonally. Nevertheless, robust exports to Asia and Africa helped support overall supply chain flow.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In the first quarter of 2025, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in the North American region experienced significant price fluctuations, reflecting tight supply conditions, extreme weather events, and changing demand dynamics. A sharp price increase was seen at the beginning of the quarter due to the combined impact of severe winter storms, which heightened demand for heating fuels and led to inventory draws. Propane and butane prices surged, driven by increased consumption, higher crude oil and natural gas prices, and a surge in LPG exports. The export demand from Asia, particularly for propane and butane, was robust, further supporting the price hikes.
However, in the mid-quarter, the market remained tight, and prices continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace, influenced by prolonged cold temperatures and strong demand for heating fuels. Exports remained strong, but LPG production faced constraints due to limited natural gas availability for production, compounding supply pressures.
Towards the end of the quarter, the market turned bearish as domestic demand for propane and butane weakened. Propane prices declined following a reduction in U.S. exports to China due to retaliatory tariffs. Similarly, butane demand dropped after the end of the winter gasoline blending season, in line with EPA regulations. Despite strong exports to Asia and Africa, the overall decline in domestic consumption led to a bearish outlook, and LPG prices softened.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2025, the LPG market in the Asian region displayed fluctuating yet relatively stable price trends influenced by a mix of supply-demand dynamics, seasonal factors, and global market conditions. The quarter began with a significant reduction in LPG prices, driven by Saudi Aramco's adjustments in response to an oversupply of propane and butane, which affected the Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern markets. Despite the lower prices, demand remained stable due to consistent supply and steady consumption. As the winter season progressed, increased demand for propane, driven by heating needs, led to a price rebound in the mid-quarter. This uptick was further supported by a reduction in inventory levels and strong export demand, particularly from the petrochemical sector. However, as temperatures rose in March and heating demand declined, LPG prices softened towards the end of the quarter. Additionally, lower crude oil prices helped ease manufacturing costs, contributing to the bearish market sentiment. Throughout the quarter, supply remained balanced, with Saudi Arabia continuing to meet the region's needs, although geopolitical factors, such as reduced Iranian exports, influenced the supply chain.
Europe
The price trend for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) in Europe during Q1 2025 exhibited significant volatility, driven by multiple intersecting factors. At the beginning of the quarter, LPG prices surged due to tight supply, primarily driven by escalating crude oil prices, which exerted upward pressure on manufacturing costs. Additionally, the surge in freight charges and logistical bottlenecks, particularly in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region, further strained supply chains, pushing prices even higher. However, the volatile nature of the market became evident during the mid-quarter. A sharp decline in crude oil prices led to a temporary dip in LPG prices. Despite this, the market remained buoyant due to continued strong demand for heating fuels and blending components, especially driven by the extreme winter weather. Prices continued to swing, showing slight reductions as supply pressures eased but remained constrained by winter-related demand. As the winter season began to wane in March, the price trend shifted again towards the end of the quarter. LPG prices dropped due to decreasing crude oil prices and declining demand for heating fuels. This downward momentum continued as warmer weather reduced heating demand. By the end of the quarter, LPG prices had stabilized, reflecting a complex interplay of global supply dynamics, reduced demand, and shifting geopolitical pressures.
Middle East
In Q1 2025, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in the Middle East region experienced a fluctuating yet generally steady price trend, shaped by a mix of supply-demand dynamics, seasonal factors, and global market conditions. At the start of the quarter, LPG prices saw a significant decrease, driven by pricing adjustments from Saudi Aramco in response to an oversupply of propane and butane. These price reductions, initially aimed at addressing the market surplus, impacted the Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern regions, although the oversupply did not indicate a lack of demand. As the quarter progressed, LPG demand began to rise, particularly due to increased heating fuel requirements during colder weather, leading to a shift in pricing strategy. Saudi Aramco raised prices mid-quarter, despite falling crude oil prices, as propane demand peaked with increased home heating needs. However, by the end of Q1, as winter temperatures moderated, the market became bearish. LPG prices dropped, driven by reduced heating fuel demand and falling crude oil prices, which lowered manufacturing costs. Despite the softening domestic demand, the supply situation remained balanced, with Saudi exports maintaining strong performance, particularly in the Asian and African markets. By the end of Q1, LPG prices stabilized, reflecting moderate domestic demand, and continued robust export activity.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in the US region experienced a period of increasing prices. The US LPG prices rebounded during October 2024 on the back of a shift in demand due to colder weather with butane prices. The significant rise in the LPG demand was attributed to both escalations in downstream domestic as well as industrial applications. As winter approached, the demand for LPG as a heating fuel surged, particularly in regions experiencing colder-than-average temperatures.
Additionally, the pre-Thanksgiving holiday season in November 2024 also contributed to increased demand and higher prices. On the other hand, a notable decline in inventory levels further tightened the market supply, contributing to the upward pressure on prices. Moreover, Labor disputes at US ports exacerbated the situation, leading to additional supply constraints and price hikes.
However, the US LPG prices declined during December 2024 despite the high demand for blending fuels to settle at USD 7.3/MMBTU Butane FD Texas, while USD 7.7/MMBTU Propane DEL Texas.
APAC
The fourth quarter of 2024 has seen a challenging environment for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) pricing in the APAC region, characterized by increasing prices. LPG prices in China rose in October 2024 due to an upward adjustment of Saudi Aramco-provided quotations amid a rise in demand for heating and blending fuels. Moreover, a rise in the feedstock Crude oil prices worked as a benchmark for LPG contracts in the Asia-Pacific area, including China. Additionally, the onset of colder temperatures has increased demand for heating fuels, including propane. This surge in demand has led to a steady rise in inland propane market prices. The limited availability of supply from the US has tightened the market and underpinned price levels. Likewise, in November, the supply from the USA was affected due to hurricane season, and the supply from Saudi was disrupted due to an escalating war which affected energy infrastructure, including LPG facilities, and declined export levels significantly. However, the LPG prices in China remained unchanged during December 2024 and Saudi Aramco kept their official selling prices (OSPs) unchanged due to a shift in market dynamics.
Europe
Throughout Q4 2024, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in Europe experienced a period of significant price increases, compared to the third quarter. In October 2024, the attack on Israel by Iran, sent feedstock crude oil soaring and, consequently, made the LPG production costs expensive. Additionally, the onset of colder temperatures has increased demand for heating fuels, including propane. This surge in demand has led to a steady rise in inland propane market prices. Several buyers have encouraged restocking activity, limiting spot volumes and pushing up prices. As blending fuel demand intensified, participants were scrambling to restock ahead of anticipated price increases which surged the LPG prices. Moreover, the supply from the USA to Europe was affected in November due to hurricane season which disrupted energy infrastructure, including LPG facilities. As a ripple effect, the export level from the USA has declined significantly during this timeframe. However, after witnessing immense stability, the European LPG prices in Belgium declined during December 2024 on the back of a shift in demand and supply surplus.
South America
The South American LPG market witnessed a period of significant price escalation throughout the fourth quarter of 2024, a stark contrast to the relative price stability observed in the preceding quarter. Firstly, the geopolitical tensions arising from the attack on Israel by Iran sent shockwaves through the energy markets, causing a sharp increase in crude oil prices. As crude oil serves as a key input for LPG production, these escalating costs inevitably translated into higher production expenses for LPG manufacturers. Secondly, the onset of colder weather across Brazil intensified the demand for heating fuels, particularly propane, a key component of LPG. This surge in demand created a supply-demand imbalance, driving up inland propane prices. The situation was further compounded by disruptions to US LPG exports in November. The hurricane season wreaked havoc on energy infrastructure, including LPG facilities in the US, leading to a significant decline in export volumes. This supply shock further tightened the market and exerted upward pressure on prices. However, a shift in market dynamics led to a surprising reversal in December. Brazilian LPG prices experienced a decline, primarily driven by a rebalancing of supply and demand.
MEA
The LPG market in the Middle East region faced headwinds during the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily driven by escalating prices. In Saudi Arabia, LPG prices climbed in October due to a combination of factors. Firstly, Saudi Aramco increased its official selling prices (OSPs), reflecting a surge in demand for heating and blending fuels as winter approached. Secondly, rising crude oil prices exerted upward pressure on LPG contracts across the region, given its role as a key benchmark. Concurrently, the onset of colder weather significantly boosted demand for propane, a key component of heating fuels, leading to a tightening of supply and a subsequent rise in inland prices. The situation further deteriorated in November. The escalating conflict in the Middle East impacted Saudi Arabian supply chains, including LPG facilities. This disruption significantly reduced export volumes, further tightening the market. However, a shift in market dynamics led to a surprising outcome in December. Saudi Aramco maintained its OSPs unchanged in December amid the anticipated ramp-up in heating demand due to falling temperatures in late November and blending appetite from the gasoline sector did not materialize as expected.
