For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The US Lithium Carbonate market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, primarily driven by persistent oversupply and subdued demand. The quarter commenced with relatively stable prices amidst an oversupplied market, with excess supply outpacing current demand, leading to downward pressure on prices.
While there were initial signs of production cuts by Chinese producers, their impact was limited. Subsequently, prices experienced a brief period of upward movement driven by the import of higher-priced goods. However, this was short-lived, as prices declined significantly towards the end of the quarter due to continued oversupply, sluggish demand from battery manufacturers, and the import of cheaper goods. The demand for lithium carbonate remained subdued throughout the quarter, impacted by factors such as cautious purchasing behavior from battery manufacturers and EV makers, concerns about tightening regulations in key markets, and a global economic slowdown.
Despite the challenges, the US EV market continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace than initially anticipated. However, the impact of this growth on lithium carbonate demand was limited due to the prevailing oversupply conditions. The continued robust production from major producers like SQM in Chile further exacerbated the oversupply situation, exerting significant downward pressure on prices. Overall, the Q4 2024 price trend for Lithium Carbonate in the US market was characterized by volatility and a downward bias, with prices experiencing significant declines amidst a challenging market environment.
APAC
The APAC Lithium Carbonate market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, influenced by a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. The quarter commenced with a surge in prices driven by pre-holiday inventory buildup and robust demand from downstream sectors. However, this was followed by a period of price stability and even slight declines due to factors such as lower-than-expected production cuts, increased supply from new projects, and a slowdown in consumer demand. Subsequently, prices rebounded in November driven by improved market sentiment and production cuts at an overseas mine. However, this upward trend was short-lived, as prices declined again in December due to reduced consumer demand, high inventory levels, and cautious purchasing behavior ahead of the year-end. Throughout the quarter, supply and demand dynamics fluctuated significantly. While supply increased due to higher production from spodumene and lithium mica, it was partially offset by production halts for maintenance at some lithium salt factories. Demand remained robust, driven by strong NEV sales in China, although seasonal weakness was observed towards the end of the quarter. Overall, the Q4 2024 price trend for Lithium Carbonate in the APAC region was characterized by volatility, with prices experiencing both upward and downward movements in response to shifting market conditions.
Europe
The Belgian Lithium Carbonate market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, primarily influenced by the dynamics of the global battery market. The quarter commenced with a period of relative price stability amidst an oversupplied electrolyte market and reduced consumer inquiries. This oversupply, driven by factors such as increased production capacity and lower-than-expected demand from battery manufacturers, exerted significant downward pressure on LiPF6 prices. While demand from the EV sector in North America showed some growth, it was insufficient to offset the impact of the oversupplied market. Towards the end of the quarter, prices began to decline further, primarily due to cautious purchasing behavior from battery manufacturers and EV makers. This cautious approach was influenced by factors such as tightening regulations in key markets, rising interest rates, and concerns about a potential economic slowdown. Despite these challenges, the North American LiPF6 market demonstrated some resilience. The growing demand for EVs in the region, albeit at a slower pace compared to other regions, continued to support the market. However, the overall market sentiment remained subdued, with concerns about oversupply and potential price volatility persisting.
South America
The Chilean Lithium Carbonate market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, primarily driven by a complex interplay of global supply and demand factors. The quarter commenced with a period of price stability amidst an oversupplied market, with excess supply outpacing current demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. While there were initial signs of production cuts by Chinese producers, their impact was limited. Subsequently, prices experienced a brief period of upward movement driven by renewed interest from Asian markets. However, this was short-lived, as prices declined significantly towards the end of the quarter due to continued oversupply, sluggish demand from battery manufacturers, and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream consumers. The demand for lithium carbonate remained subdued throughout the quarter, impacted by factors such as weakening EV demand in key markets like China, reduced government subsidies, and rising interest rates. Despite these challenges, Chilean lithium producers continued to maintain high production levels, with SQM targeting an installed capacity of 210,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate this year. However, the impact of global oversupply on prices has significantly impacted profitability for Chilean producers. Overall, the Q4 2024 price trend for Lithium Carbonate in the Chilean market was characterized by volatility and a downward bias, with prices experiencing significant declines amidst a challenging market environment.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Throughout Q3 2024, the Lithium Carbonate market in North America witnessed a significant downturn, driven by various key factors. The market experienced a substantial decline in prices, primarily due to weak demand, an influx of cheaper imports, and an oversupply situation. These factors collectively created a bearish sentiment in the market, leading to a consistent decrease in Lithium Carbonate prices. In the context of the USA, the region with the most notable price changes, the market followed the overall trend of decreasing prices.
Port congestion and shipping disruptions further exacerbated the oversupply situation, affecting the timely delivery of materials. High domestic inventory levels combined with stagnant electric vehicle sales led to limited trading activity.Notably, the quarter-on-quarter comparison for 2024 revealed a 15% decrease in prices in the USA, reflecting the ongoing downward trend and indicating a stark contrast in market dynamics. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter also showed a notable 11% decline in prices.
Ultimately, the quarter concluded with Lithium Carbonate Battery Grade DDP USGC prices in the USA reaching USD 11400/MT, underscoring the persistent negative sentiment and challenging market conditions.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a significant decline in Lithium Carbonate prices, influenced by several key factors that pushed market prices lower. In China, prices faced a notable downturn, primarily driven by weak consumer demand and persistent oversupply. Despite reporting a year-on-year production increase of 61%, demand from the downstream battery sector remained lackluster. Manufacturers, faced with ample material availability, opted to maintain low procurement levels, resulting in sluggish trading activities.
The electric vehicle (EV) market underperformed, with pure EV sales growing only 11% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid sales surged by 88%. This disparity highlighted a shift in consumer preferences and contributed to a subdued growth rate for lithium carbonate consumption. High inventory levels, exceeding 110,000 tons, exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, leading to reduced purchasing activity among downstream players, who preferred long-term contracts over spot purchases. Import volumes also declined, with significant drops in imports from Chile and Argentina reflecting changes in sourcing dynamics. Meanwhile, several lithium producers contemplated production cuts to mitigate losses from falling prices.
Overall, Q3 underscored the challenges facing the lithium carbonate market in China, as high supply, low demand, and shifting market dynamics continued to pressure prices downward. The quarter-on-quarter analysis for 2024 highlighted a 17% drop in prices in China, reinforcing the ongoing downward trend and showcasing a significant shift in market dynamics. Additionally, a comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter revealed an 11% decline in prices.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe region witnessed a substantial downturn in Lithium Carbonate pricing, with notable influences driving market prices downward. Weak market sentiment in Asia, coupled with reduced activity in both Europe and North America, contributed to the overall price decline. The region's increasing reliance on lithium mining to reduce dependence on external sources, especially China, led to expectations of oversupply, further pressuring prices. European automakers facing challenges in the electric vehicle market also impacted the demand side, while high costs and limited model availability hindered growth. Despite increases in EV registrations in other countries like Belgium and the Netherlands, these were insufficient to counterbalance Germany's downturn. Consequently, prices dropped steadily, reflecting a broader trend of subdued demand across Europe amid ongoing challenges in the lithium market. Belgium, experiencing the most significant price changes, recorded -15% change from the previous quarter in 2024 and the -11% difference between the first and second half of the quarter underlined a consistent downward trend.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American market for Lithium Carbonate has experienced incline in prices, primarily due to a confluence of factors impacting supply and demand dynamics. Elevated freight charges across major sea trade routes have substantially increased shipping costs, coupled with an unexpected rise in ocean freight demand from Asia, driven by restocking in Europe and North American importers accelerating peak season demand. This has resulted in a strained container market further exacerbated by logistical challenges, including capacity constraints and port congestion.
In the USA, the market has seen notable price changes, characterized by a -2% decline from the previous quarter. This moderate decrease reflects the interplay of oversupply conditions and subdued consumer inquiries in the EV market—a sector traditionally pivotal for demand. Despite this, the stable inventory levels and the strategic import of goods have managed to maintain a balanced supply-chain environment, albeit at an increased cost due to heightened freight expenses. Price stabilization has also been influenced by steady downstream demand in the automotive sector, although consumer interest in electric vehicles has waned, shifting preferences towards hybrid models.
Overall, while the pricing environment for Lithium Carbonate in North America, particularly the USA, has faced challenges, it has remained positive towards the end of the quarter. The latest quarter-ending price for Lithium Carbonate Battery Grade DDP USGC is USD 14825/MT, signaling a cautiously optimistic outlook with minor positive adjustments despite underlying market volatilities.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European market for Lithium Carbonate experienced price inclination driven by several significant factors. Crucial factors affecting the pricing included moderate-to-high supply levels due to steady production rates and high inventory levels among manufacturing firms. Additionally, the market was moderately impacted by fluctuating freight charges, which were influenced by geopolitical tensions and import rates.
Despite an overall stable market sentiment, Belgium saw the most pronounced price changes. The Belgian market observed a consistent increase in Lithium Carbonate prices due to a combination of high product availability from heavy procurement and sluggish consumption rates. Moreover, increasing production costs, driven by higher spodumene prices, further contributed to the upward pressure on prices. Seasonal demand variations also played a role, with EV-related inquiries impacting consumption patterns.
A notable trend during this quarter was the correlation between increased production costs and the overall stability of supply, juxtaposed with muted demand levels. This dynamic led to a -1% change from the previous quarter of 2024.
The quarter concluded with Lithium Carbonate Battery Grade DDP Antwerp priced at USD 1425/MT, reflecting a largely stable yet cautiously positive pricing environment for Belgium. This assessment underlines the nuanced interplay of supply, demand, and cost factors that have shaped the market dynamics in the European region during this period.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has exemplified a significant downturn in lithium carbonate prices across the APAC region, steered by numerous influencing factors. Foremost among these is the influx of cheaper goods from prominent exporting nations, leading to an oversupplied market. The slackened demand from downstream battery manufacturers, who largely operated on existing inventories, further exacerbated the pricing pressure. A sluggish electric vehicle (EV) market, compounded by subdued consumer demand, led to a bearish outlook on lithium salts, including lithium hydroxide and lithium fluoride. Additionally, the persistent weakness in the procurement activities of key market players contributed to the declining trend in spot and futures prices, leaving little room for market optimism.
In Japan, the observed maximum price changes have underscored the overall negative sentiment. The trends depicted a discernible seasonal variation with lithium carbonate prices showing a continuous decline. This quarter's prices also recorded a 5% decrease from the previous quarter of 2024, reflecting sustained downward momentum. The quarter concluded with the price of lithium carbonate battery grade CIF Osaka settling at USD 13600/MT.
Overall, the pricing environment for lithium carbonate in the APAC region has been decidedly negative, driven by oversupply, weakened demand, and lackluster market performance in the EV sector. This negative trend has been particularly pronounced in Japan, signaling a challenging market landscape for stakeholders in the lithium carbonate supply chain.
South America
The second quarter of 2024 showcased a mixed trend in lithium carbonate prices across the south America region, influenced by several factors.In the first half of Q2, lithium carbonate prices in Chile saw a marginal decline. This drop was attributed to weak consumer demand and oversupply issues. Despite consistent production levels and optimism from major producers such as SQM and Albemarle, the market remained bearish. Key markets, including the US and Europe, experienced sluggish demand due to weak EV sales and ongoing economic challenges. Additionally, Chile’s attempts to boost lithium production and recent disappointing export figures further pressured prices downward.
By the end of Q2, prices in Chile stabilized with a slight increase of 0.7%. This rise was driven by improved market fundamentals and strengthened demand in key consumer markets. Sellers did not face requests for discounts, signaling satisfaction with current price levels. Chile's agreement with Albemarle to increase production quotas bolstered production capabilities, though rising freight rates across major trade routes contributed to price pressures. The anticipation of robust demand into Q3 2024 helped maintain overall market stability.
Throughout Q2, lithium carbonate prices in Chile demonstrated a hybrid sentiment, reflecting seasonal variations with a continuous decline followed by moderate stabilization. Prices recorded a 3% decrease from the previous quarter, concluding with a price of USD 13550/MT for lithium carbonate battery grade FOB San Antonio (Chile).
The pricing environment for lithium carbonate in South America remained mixed, shaped by oversupply, weakened demand, and a lackluster performance in the EV sector.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American lithium carbonate market continued to face challenges. The supply of lithium carbonate in the region remained moderate to high, as consumption remained sluggish and procurement levels stayed heavy from previous periods. The domestic automotive industry's demand for lithium carbonate remained low, reflecting the cautious approach taken by market participants.
Major manufacturers prioritized fulfilling long-term orders, resulting in lower domestic inventories of the product due to slow replenishments. One of the notable factors impacting the market was the increasing competition from Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers. This competition affected the profitability of US-based EV companies, adding further challenges to the market.
Additionally, high interest rates made financing expensive purchases even more costly, slowing down the adoption of electric vehicles worldwide. Despite persistent inflation in other consumer goods, the purchase of optional electric vehicles remained slower than predicted. This slower adoption contributed to the overall bearish sentiment in the North American lithium carbonate market. As of the current quarter, the price of Lithium Carbonate Battery Grade DDP USGC in the USA stands at USD 15000/MT.
APAC
During Q1 of 2024, the Lithium Carbonate market in the APAC region experienced a mix of factors that influenced its dynamics. The market saw a high supply of Lithium Carbonate, but the demand remained subdued, mainly due to lackluster demand from the domestic battery manufacturing industry. Moreover, the downstream lithium hydroxide market showed minimal demand, resulting in limited observable market activities.
Another significant development was the continuous decline in the prices of upstream spodumene, as reported by China. This decline further contributed to the decrease in manufacturing costs for Lithium Carbonate. The impact of this cost decline was evident in Japan, where the prices of Lithium Carbonate Battery Grade CIF Osaka dropped by 39% compared to the previous quarter. The market trend for Japan during the quarter was bearish, characterized by moderate supply and low demand.
However, there was a 13% increase in prices observed in the first and second half of the quarter. Furthermore, the market experienced multiple shutdowns and disruptions, which, combined with the overall market conditions, led to an increase in prices. Ultimately, the Lithium Carbonate Battery Grade CIF Osaka in Japan settled at USD 14450/MT for Q1 of 2024.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Lithium Carbonate market in Europe faced various hurdles that had a significant influence on prices. These challenges were similar to those encountered in the previous quarter, with oversupply being a key factor leading to decreased demand and subsequently lower prices. The sluggish demand from the lithium-ion battery manufacturing sector continued, as consumers remained cautious due to the declining prices.
Additionally, the dominance of the Chinese market in both Europe and the United States contributed to the overall bearish sentiment in the market. Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, such as BYD, continued to witness substantial sales growth, surpassing Tesla as the leading global electric carmaker. This increased competition further impacted the profitability of European-based EV companies. However, Belgium stood out as an exception, experiencing a significant surge in sales of battery electric cars with a remarkable growth rate of 75.5%.
Despite this, the fierce pricing battle among European, US, and Chinese EV manufacturers persisted. Throughout this challenging period, the market experienced multiple shutdowns, resulting in disruptions that had a direct impact on prices. Despite these obstacles, there were some slight developments in the market transactions for Lithium Carbonate in Belgium during the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Lithium Carbonate Battery Grade DDP Antwerp in Belgium was recorded at USD 14,300/MT.
South America
In the first quarter of 2024, the South American Lithium Carbonate market demonstrates a pricing mixed trend, particularly in Chile. In the first month, Lithium Carbonate prices dipped in Chile due to persistent weak demand from downstream lithium-ion battery manufacturing industries globally. High inventory levels and subdued interest in procuring new supplies contributed to the decline. The Chinese market's sluggishness exerted pressure on global prices, while long-term orders were prioritized over immediate purchases.
Additionally, protests in Chile affected production briefly but had minimal impact on prices. In March, prices rebounded as Asian markets resumed activity after the holidays, and futures performance in China supported the increase. China's tariff adjustment plan eliminated import tariffs for lithium carbonate, affecting global markets. While European demand remained weak, the US market showed resilience, particularly in electric vehicle sales.
Despite steady demand in major markets, the overall pricing remained stable in Chile. International lithium prices rose due to tender pricing strategies by key players in Brazil. Chile's decision to open slat flats to private investors aims to boost domestic production, reflecting the government's lithium policy. Overall, market transactions were normal, with discussions settling Lithium Carbonate prices at USD 13,750/MT by March-end.
