For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. lithium carbonate market experienced fluctuating dynamics shaped by ongoing global oversupply, restrained demand, and geopolitical uncertainty. Prices exhibited a gradual decline through January and February before stabilizing in March. Production and supply dynamics were shaped by a projected 16% increase in global capacity, driven by expansions in Chile, Australia, and Africa. Chile alone is expected to reach 305,000 tons of lithium output in 2025.
Despite this, delays in certain projects and weather-related disruptions in salt lake regions slightly curtailed some supply-side pressure. Import volumes into the U.S. fluctuated due to material abundance and changing buyer behavior. On the demand side, seasonal restocking and cautious procurement patterns kept short-term buying subdued. The automotive sector showed mixed signals. EV sales rose 20% year-over-year in February, driven by federal incentives, infrastructure improvements, and model diversification.
The U.S. policy uncertainty under President Trump, including potential rollbacks on EV mandates and federal tax credits, cast a shadow over future market momentum. Despite these challenges, manufacturers like Tesla and Albemarle are recalibrating strategies—Albemarle delayed its Chengdu lithium hydroxide plant launch and refocused on lithium carbonate production, while Chilean producer SQM aims to raise lithium sales by 15% in 2025.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2025, China's lithium carbonate market experienced a persistent decline in prices, driven primarily by an oversupply scenario and fluctuating downstream demand. At the start of the year, lithium carbonate prices were moderately stable, with robust supply stemming from high production rates of spodumene and lithium mica. This high supply trend was temporarily disrupted in February due to Spring Festival maintenance at several lithium salt factories, but resumed swiftly as major companies restarted operations, especially in the Yichun and Jiangxi regions.
Chile remained a dominant import partner, with lithium carbonate shipments rising significantly—January imports alone from Chile to China totaled 19,100 MT, a 43% month-over-month increase. On the demand front, leading ternary material manufacturers maintained high operating rates throughout January, supporting prices briefly. However, smaller producers faced shutdowns, and by February, demand weakened further, resulting in cautious procurement activity and few spot market transactions.
Although there was a brief recovery in March, supported by a rise in lithium iron phosphate production for power batteries, overall market sentiment remained cautious. Despite temporary boosts in production activity and restocking demand, the market's oversupply challenge proved difficult to overcome. The restart of operations at Ganfeng Lithium’s Mariana project in Argentina and growing domestic output further exacerbated supply-side pressures.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2025, the lithium carbonate market in Belgium exhibited signs of gradual stabilization following several months of price corrections and global oversupply. While prices declined gradually throughout the quarter due to weak downstream demand, they began to stabilize by March, driven by improved fundamentals and a more balanced market environment. Global production of lithium carbonate continued to increase, with a projected 16% rise in capacity for the year, reaching 1.58 million tons of LCE.
Chile, Belgium's primary supplier, reported robust export growth and anticipates a 7% production increase in 2025, maintaining its role as a key global player. However, oversupply remains a structural issue, with global surpluses estimated at 141,000 tons in 2025. Several projects in Africa and Australia experienced delays, slightly alleviating immediate supply pressures. On the demand side, Q1 began with tempered restocking activity, influenced by holiday-related slowdowns and elevated inventory levels.
Nonetheless, demand is expected to rise by 26% YoY in 2025, largely fueled by battery manufacturing for electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems (ESS). ESS demand alone is forecast to represent 13% of total lithium usage this year. The European EV market, especially in Belgium, showed encouraging trends. Sales grew significantly in February, supported by stringent CO2 emissions regulations, government incentives, and expanded charging infrastructure.
South America
During the first quarter of 2025, lithium carbonate prices in Chile remained under pressure due to persistent global oversupply and subdued demand from major end-use sectors. Production remained strong, driven by Chile’s robust extraction infrastructure, with output forecasted to grow by 7% to reach 305,000 tons in 2025. However, delays in new projects in Africa and Australia slightly offset potential oversupply.
On the demand side, the market faced headwinds, particularly from China, where reduced EV subsidies and slowing sales impacted battery production. Seasonal restocking in January and muted downstream activity also dampened short-term demand. Despite this, long-term projections remain optimistic, with global lithium carbonate demand expected to grow 26% in 2025, driven by the expansion of electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems (ESS), which are set to account for 13% of overall demand.
EV sales trends were mixed but largely positive. Global sales rose 18% year-over-year in January and 50% in February, with strong performances in the EU and North America. Germany saw a 40% surge in early 2025, aided by new CO2 emission regulations. Meanwhile, key lithium players like Albemarle and SQM are adjusting their strategies—Albemarle delaying its Chengdu lithium hydroxide plant and SQM targeting a 15% sales increase in 2025, signaling a shift in focus toward lithium carbonate amid current market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The US Lithium Carbonate market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, primarily driven by persistent oversupply and subdued demand. The quarter commenced with relatively stable prices amidst an oversupplied market, with excess supply outpacing current demand, leading to downward pressure on prices.
While there were initial signs of production cuts by Chinese producers, their impact was limited. Subsequently, prices experienced a brief period of upward movement driven by the import of higher-priced goods. However, this was short-lived, as prices declined significantly towards the end of the quarter due to continued oversupply, sluggish demand from battery manufacturers, and the import of cheaper goods. The demand for lithium carbonate remained subdued throughout the quarter, impacted by factors such as cautious purchasing behavior from battery manufacturers and EV makers, concerns about tightening regulations in key markets, and a global economic slowdown.
Despite the challenges, the US EV market continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace than initially anticipated. However, the impact of this growth on lithium carbonate demand was limited due to the prevailing oversupply conditions. The continued robust production from major producers like SQM in Chile further exacerbated the oversupply situation, exerting significant downward pressure on prices. Overall, the Q4 2024 price trend for Lithium Carbonate in the US market was characterized by volatility and a downward bias, with prices experiencing significant declines amidst a challenging market environment.
APAC
The APAC Lithium Carbonate market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, influenced by a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. The quarter commenced with a surge in prices driven by pre-holiday inventory buildup and robust demand from downstream sectors. However, this was followed by a period of price stability and even slight declines due to factors such as lower-than-expected production cuts, increased supply from new projects, and a slowdown in consumer demand. Subsequently, prices rebounded in November driven by improved market sentiment and production cuts at an overseas mine. However, this upward trend was short-lived, as prices declined again in December due to reduced consumer demand, high inventory levels, and cautious purchasing behavior ahead of the year-end. Throughout the quarter, supply and demand dynamics fluctuated significantly. While supply increased due to higher production from spodumene and lithium mica, it was partially offset by production halts for maintenance at some lithium salt factories. Demand remained robust, driven by strong NEV sales in China, although seasonal weakness was observed towards the end of the quarter. Overall, the Q4 2024 price trend for Lithium Carbonate in the APAC region was characterized by volatility, with prices experiencing both upward and downward movements in response to shifting market conditions.
Europe
The Belgian Lithium Carbonate market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, primarily influenced by the dynamics of the global battery market. The quarter commenced with a period of relative price stability amidst an oversupplied electrolyte market and reduced consumer inquiries. This oversupply, driven by factors such as increased production capacity and lower-than-expected demand from battery manufacturers, exerted significant downward pressure on LiPF6 prices. While demand from the EV sector in North America showed some growth, it was insufficient to offset the impact of the oversupplied market. Towards the end of the quarter, prices began to decline further, primarily due to cautious purchasing behavior from battery manufacturers and EV makers. This cautious approach was influenced by factors such as tightening regulations in key markets, rising interest rates, and concerns about a potential economic slowdown. Despite these challenges, the North American LiPF6 market demonstrated some resilience. The growing demand for EVs in the region, albeit at a slower pace compared to other regions, continued to support the market. However, the overall market sentiment remained subdued, with concerns about oversupply and potential price volatility persisting.
South America
The Chilean Lithium Carbonate market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, primarily driven by a complex interplay of global supply and demand factors. The quarter commenced with a period of price stability amidst an oversupplied market, with excess supply outpacing current demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. While there were initial signs of production cuts by Chinese producers, their impact was limited. Subsequently, prices experienced a brief period of upward movement driven by renewed interest from Asian markets. However, this was short-lived, as prices declined significantly towards the end of the quarter due to continued oversupply, sluggish demand from battery manufacturers, and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream consumers. The demand for lithium carbonate remained subdued throughout the quarter, impacted by factors such as weakening EV demand in key markets like China, reduced government subsidies, and rising interest rates. Despite these challenges, Chilean lithium producers continued to maintain high production levels, with SQM targeting an installed capacity of 210,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate this year. However, the impact of global oversupply on prices has significantly impacted profitability for Chilean producers. Overall, the Q4 2024 price trend for Lithium Carbonate in the Chilean market was characterized by volatility and a downward bias, with prices experiencing significant declines amidst a challenging market environment.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Throughout Q3 2024, the Lithium Carbonate market in North America witnessed a significant downturn, driven by various key factors. The market experienced a substantial decline in prices, primarily due to weak demand, an influx of cheaper imports, and an oversupply situation. These factors collectively created a bearish sentiment in the market, leading to a consistent decrease in Lithium Carbonate prices. In the context of the USA, the region with the most notable price changes, the market followed the overall trend of decreasing prices.
Port congestion and shipping disruptions further exacerbated the oversupply situation, affecting the timely delivery of materials. High domestic inventory levels combined with stagnant electric vehicle sales led to limited trading activity.Notably, the quarter-on-quarter comparison for 2024 revealed a 15% decrease in prices in the USA, reflecting the ongoing downward trend and indicating a stark contrast in market dynamics. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter also showed a notable 11% decline in prices.
Ultimately, the quarter concluded with Lithium Carbonate Battery Grade DDP USGC prices in the USA reaching USD 11400/MT, underscoring the persistent negative sentiment and challenging market conditions.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a significant decline in Lithium Carbonate prices, influenced by several key factors that pushed market prices lower. In China, prices faced a notable downturn, primarily driven by weak consumer demand and persistent oversupply. Despite reporting a year-on-year production increase of 61%, demand from the downstream battery sector remained lackluster. Manufacturers, faced with ample material availability, opted to maintain low procurement levels, resulting in sluggish trading activities.
The electric vehicle (EV) market underperformed, with pure EV sales growing only 11% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid sales surged by 88%. This disparity highlighted a shift in consumer preferences and contributed to a subdued growth rate for lithium carbonate consumption. High inventory levels, exceeding 110,000 tons, exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, leading to reduced purchasing activity among downstream players, who preferred long-term contracts over spot purchases. Import volumes also declined, with significant drops in imports from Chile and Argentina reflecting changes in sourcing dynamics. Meanwhile, several lithium producers contemplated production cuts to mitigate losses from falling prices.
Overall, Q3 underscored the challenges facing the lithium carbonate market in China, as high supply, low demand, and shifting market dynamics continued to pressure prices downward. The quarter-on-quarter analysis for 2024 highlighted a 17% drop in prices in China, reinforcing the ongoing downward trend and showcasing a significant shift in market dynamics. Additionally, a comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter revealed an 11% decline in prices.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe region witnessed a substantial downturn in Lithium Carbonate pricing, with notable influences driving market prices downward. Weak market sentiment in Asia, coupled with reduced activity in both Europe and North America, contributed to the overall price decline. The region's increasing reliance on lithium mining to reduce dependence on external sources, especially China, led to expectations of oversupply, further pressuring prices. European automakers facing challenges in the electric vehicle market also impacted the demand side, while high costs and limited model availability hindered growth. Despite increases in EV registrations in other countries like Belgium and the Netherlands, these were insufficient to counterbalance Germany's downturn. Consequently, prices dropped steadily, reflecting a broader trend of subdued demand across Europe amid ongoing challenges in the lithium market. Belgium, experiencing the most significant price changes, recorded -15% change from the previous quarter in 2024 and the -11% difference between the first and second half of the quarter underlined a consistent downward trend.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American market for Lithium Carbonate has experienced incline in prices, primarily due to a confluence of factors impacting supply and demand dynamics. Elevated freight charges across major sea trade routes have substantially increased shipping costs, coupled with an unexpected rise in ocean freight demand from Asia, driven by restocking in Europe and North American importers accelerating peak season demand. This has resulted in a strained container market further exacerbated by logistical challenges, including capacity constraints and port congestion.
In the USA, the market has seen notable price changes, characterized by a -2% decline from the previous quarter. This moderate decrease reflects the interplay of oversupply conditions and subdued consumer inquiries in the EV market—a sector traditionally pivotal for demand. Despite this, the stable inventory levels and the strategic import of goods have managed to maintain a balanced supply-chain environment, albeit at an increased cost due to heightened freight expenses. Price stabilization has also been influenced by steady downstream demand in the automotive sector, although consumer interest in electric vehicles has waned, shifting preferences towards hybrid models.
Overall, while the pricing environment for Lithium Carbonate in North America, particularly the USA, has faced challenges, it has remained positive towards the end of the quarter. The latest quarter-ending price for Lithium Carbonate Battery Grade DDP USGC is USD 14825/MT, signaling a cautiously optimistic outlook with minor positive adjustments despite underlying market volatilities.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European market for Lithium Carbonate experienced price inclination driven by several significant factors. Crucial factors affecting the pricing included moderate-to-high supply levels due to steady production rates and high inventory levels among manufacturing firms. Additionally, the market was moderately impacted by fluctuating freight charges, which were influenced by geopolitical tensions and import rates.
Despite an overall stable market sentiment, Belgium saw the most pronounced price changes. The Belgian market observed a consistent increase in Lithium Carbonate prices due to a combination of high product availability from heavy procurement and sluggish consumption rates. Moreover, increasing production costs, driven by higher spodumene prices, further contributed to the upward pressure on prices. Seasonal demand variations also played a role, with EV-related inquiries impacting consumption patterns.
A notable trend during this quarter was the correlation between increased production costs and the overall stability of supply, juxtaposed with muted demand levels. This dynamic led to a -1% change from the previous quarter of 2024.
The quarter concluded with Lithium Carbonate Battery Grade DDP Antwerp priced at USD 1425/MT, reflecting a largely stable yet cautiously positive pricing environment for Belgium. This assessment underlines the nuanced interplay of supply, demand, and cost factors that have shaped the market dynamics in the European region during this period.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has exemplified a significant downturn in lithium carbonate prices across the APAC region, steered by numerous influencing factors. Foremost among these is the influx of cheaper goods from prominent exporting nations, leading to an oversupplied market. The slackened demand from downstream battery manufacturers, who largely operated on existing inventories, further exacerbated the pricing pressure. A sluggish electric vehicle (EV) market, compounded by subdued consumer demand, led to a bearish outlook on lithium salts, including lithium hydroxide and lithium fluoride. Additionally, the persistent weakness in the procurement activities of key market players contributed to the declining trend in spot and futures prices, leaving little room for market optimism.
In Japan, the observed maximum price changes have underscored the overall negative sentiment. The trends depicted a discernible seasonal variation with lithium carbonate prices showing a continuous decline. This quarter's prices also recorded a 5% decrease from the previous quarter of 2024, reflecting sustained downward momentum. The quarter concluded with the price of lithium carbonate battery grade CIF Osaka settling at USD 13600/MT.
Overall, the pricing environment for lithium carbonate in the APAC region has been decidedly negative, driven by oversupply, weakened demand, and lackluster market performance in the EV sector. This negative trend has been particularly pronounced in Japan, signaling a challenging market landscape for stakeholders in the lithium carbonate supply chain.
South America
The second quarter of 2024 showcased a mixed trend in lithium carbonate prices across the south America region, influenced by several factors.In the first half of Q2, lithium carbonate prices in Chile saw a marginal decline. This drop was attributed to weak consumer demand and oversupply issues. Despite consistent production levels and optimism from major producers such as SQM and Albemarle, the market remained bearish. Key markets, including the US and Europe, experienced sluggish demand due to weak EV sales and ongoing economic challenges. Additionally, Chile’s attempts to boost lithium production and recent disappointing export figures further pressured prices downward.
By the end of Q2, prices in Chile stabilized with a slight increase of 0.7%. This rise was driven by improved market fundamentals and strengthened demand in key consumer markets. Sellers did not face requests for discounts, signaling satisfaction with current price levels. Chile's agreement with Albemarle to increase production quotas bolstered production capabilities, though rising freight rates across major trade routes contributed to price pressures. The anticipation of robust demand into Q3 2024 helped maintain overall market stability.
Throughout Q2, lithium carbonate prices in Chile demonstrated a hybrid sentiment, reflecting seasonal variations with a continuous decline followed by moderate stabilization. Prices recorded a 3% decrease from the previous quarter, concluding with a price of USD 13550/MT for lithium carbonate battery grade FOB San Antonio (Chile).
The pricing environment for lithium carbonate in South America remained mixed, shaped by oversupply, weakened demand, and a lackluster performance in the EV sector.
