For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
During the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. lithium hydroxide market continued to navigate a complex landscape shaped by persistent global oversupply, fluctuating EV demand, and shifting trade dynamics. Prices showed a consistent downward trend throughout the quarter, largely influenced by cheaper imports, high inventory levels, and subdued domestic demand. In January, market conditions were strained by oversupply and softened downstream demand due to seasonal restocking and holiday-related slowdowns.
While imports from Chile and Argentina remained robust, U.S. lithium salt imports declined by 11% year-over-year in 2024, reflecting reduced EV adoption and inventory destocking. Despite muted short-term demand, the Energy Storage System (ESS) sector and long-term EV projections offered support for future growth. Manufacturing dynamics were defined by expanding capacity in major exporting nations. Chile’s lithium exports surged in January, and production is forecasted to increase by 7% in 2025, reaching 305,000 tons.
However, the anticipated global surplus of 141,000 tons has kept pressure on pricing. Producers like SQM announced spending cutbacks in response to declining prices. On the demand side, EV sales in the U.S. and Canada showed resilience, increasing 20% year-over-year in February. Government incentives and infrastructure improvements supported this trend. However, concerns about potential policy reversals under a new U.S. administration created uncertainty around long-term market stability and incentive structures.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2025, lithium hydroxide prices in China experienced a gradual but steady decline, influenced by a combination of weak spot demand, constrained supply due to maintenance activities, and high raw material costs. Despite stable demand from ternary cathode material manufacturers, especially in the 8-series segment, it was not enough to offset reduced output caused by the Chinese New Year shutdowns and ongoing smelting sector weaknesses.
Production levels hit recent lows in February due to maintenance and holiday-related shutdowns. While output showed signs of recovery in March as production schedules stabilized, the growth remained subdued. Some producers even began shifting focus toward lithium carbonate to mitigate cost pressures. On the demand side, a conservative approach prevailed throughout Q1. Manufacturers of ternary cathode materials maintained operations primarily through existing inventories, with limited interest in large spot orders.
As the quarter progressed, purchasing activity remained weak, with customers showing low urgency to restock amid ongoing price declines. Although China’s NEV sales rebounded year-over-year due to extended trade-in subsidies, month-over-month figures dropped significantly in February, influenced by seasonal effects and holiday closures. By the end of March, increased willingness to sell among producers and fading buyer resistance led to more flexible transaction terms.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2025, lithium hydroxide prices in Belgium continued their downward trajectory due to persistent global oversupply, subdued demand, and increased imports of cheaper materials. Despite this, the market began showing initial signs of stabilization, supported by steady EV adoption in Europe and adjustments in global production strategies.
In January, weak downstream demand, driven by seasonal restocking and elevated inventories, contributed to a 1.9% price drop. As the month progressed, market sentiment remained cautious amid global surplus concerns. Chile, a major supplier to the EU, reported a sharp year-over-year increase in lithium exports, signaling resilient supply. However, production setbacks in Africa and Australia slightly eased oversupply concerns.
Demand remained sluggish across the quarter, though growth is anticipated, with lithium usage in EV batteries and energy storage systems expected to rise significantly. The EU’s stricter emissions targets and increased support for EV infrastructure contributed to a 20% year-over-year increase in regional EV sales, offering mid-to-long-term support for lithium demand. By March, the market remained under pressure from global surplus and modest demand recovery, leading to another minor price decline.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The US Lithium Hydroxide market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, primarily driven by persistent oversupply and subdued demand. The quarter commenced with relatively stable prices amidst an oversupplied market, with an excess supply outpacing current demand, leading to downward pressure on prices.
While there were initial signs of production cuts by Chinese producers, their impact was limited. Subsequently, prices experienced a brief period of upward movement driven by the import of higher-priced goods. However, this was short-lived, as prices declined significantly towards the end of the quarter due to continued oversupply, sluggish demand from battery manufacturers, and the import of cheaper goods.
The demand for lithium hydroxide remained subdued throughout the quarter, impacted by factors such as cautious purchasing behavior from battery manufacturers and EV makers, concerns about tightening regulations in key markets, and a global economic slowdown. Despite the challenges, the US EV market continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace than initially anticipated. However, the impact of this growth on lithium hydroxide demand was limited due to the prevailing oversupply conditions. The continued robust production from major producers like SQM in Chile further exacerbated the oversupply situation, exerting significant downward pressure on prices.
APAC
The APAC Lithium Hydroxide market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, influenced by a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. The quarter commenced with a surge in prices driven by pre-holiday inventory buildup and robust demand from downstream sectors, particularly for high-nickel ternary cathode materials. However, this was followed by a period of price stability and even slight declines due to factors such as lower-than-expected production cuts, increased supply from new projects, and a slowdown in consumer demand. Subsequently, prices rebounded in November, driven by improved market sentiment and production cuts at an overseas mine. However, this upward trend was short-lived, as prices declined again in December due to reduced consumer demand, high inventory levels, and cautious purchasing behavior ahead of the year-end. Throughout the quarter, supply and demand dynamics fluctuated significantly. While supply increased due to higher production from spodumene and lithium mica, it was partially offset by production halts for maintenance at some lithium salt factories. Demand remained robust, driven by strong NEV sales in China, although seasonal weakness was observed towards the end of the quarter.
Europe
The European Lithium Hydroxide market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, primarily influenced by the dynamics of the global battery market. The quarter commenced with a period of relative price stability amidst an oversupplied market and reduced consumer inquiries. This oversupply, driven by factors such as increased production capacity and lower-than-expected demand from battery manufacturers, exerted significant downward pressure on prices. While demand from the EV sector in Europe showed some growth, it was insufficient to offset the impact of the oversupplied market. Towards the end of the quarter, prices began to decline further, primarily due to cautious purchasing behavior from battery manufacturers and EV makers. This cautious approach was influenced by factors such as tightening regulations in key markets, rising interest rates, and concerns about a potential economic slowdown. Despite these challenges, the European Lithium Hydroxide market demonstrated some resilience. The growing demand for EVs in the region, albeit at a slower pace compared to other regions, continued to support the market. However, the overall market sentiment remained subdued, with concerns about oversupply and potential price volatility persisting.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Lithium Hydroxide market in North America experienced a significant decline in prices, with the USA facing the most substantial impact. The market was heavily influenced by multiple factors leading to the downward trend. Oversupply issues, low demand, and excess inventory levels were key drivers behind the price decrease.
Furthermore, the slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales and uncertainties in the energy storage sector added to the negative sentiment. The quarter recorded a substantial price drop of 60% compared to the same period last year, highlighting the drastic shift in market conditions. Additionally, there was a notable 20% decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a continuous downward trajectory.
The second half of the quarter saw prices falling by 11% compared to the first half of the quarter, reflecting the sustained bearish outlook. Ultimately, the quarter concluded with Lithium Hydroxide Battery grade DDP USGC prices in the USA settling at USD 11600/MT, underlining the persisting negative pricing environment throughout Q3.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the lithium hydroxide market in the APAC region experienced a significant decline in prices, with China seeing the most pronounced reductions. This downturn was driven by weak consumer demand, concerns of oversupply, and consistently low demand from downstream lithium-ion battery manufacturing sectors. Towards the end of quarter, customer supply began to align with orders, ternary cathode material producers showed little need for additional external procurement, resulting in a relatively stagnant market. Market sentiment remained stable, with price quotes fluctuating due to changes in lithium carbonate prices but generally staying high. Market sentiment remained negative throughout the quarter, with prices continuing to drop. Year-over-year, Q3 2024 prices decreased by 65%, marking a substantial downward trend. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, prices fell by 15.3%, highlighting the ongoing deterioration. The second half of the quarter saw an additional 8% decline compared to the first half, reflecting a persistent downward trajectory. The quarter closed with lithium hydroxide battery grade prices at USD 9300/MT FOB Shenzhen, illustrating the ongoing challenging market conditions and negative pricing trends.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the market for Lithium Hydroxide in Europe experienced a continuous decline in prices, reflecting a negative sentiment influenced by several key factors. The oversupply situation, coupled with weak market sentiment in Asia and North America, has been a significant driver of the decreasing prices. The bearish market conditions, along with moderate supply levels and low to moderate demand, have contributed to the ongoing price downtrend. Additionally, the struggles faced by European automakers in the global electric vehicle market, high production costs, and limited consumer demand for battery electric vehicles have further impacted the lithium market. Belgium, in particular, has seen the most significant price changes within the region. The substantial decrease of 52% compared to the same quarter last year underscores the challenging market environment. Moreover, the recorded -14% change from the previous quarter and the -11% difference between the first and second half of the quarter highlight the consistent downward trend in pricing. The quarter-ending price of USD 11500/MT of Lithium Hydroxide Battery Grade DDP Antwerp in Belgium reflects the prevailing negative pricing environment in Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a dynamic landscape for Lithium Hydroxide prices in North America, driven by several significant factors. The pivotal elements influencing market prices included heightened freight charges due to increased ocean freight demand, a potential restocking cycle in Europe, and North American importers accelerating their peak season demand. The container market faced additional strain from unseasonal demand increases and capacity constraints. Consequently, the liquidity of spot market transactions remained limited, and shipping costs surged, impacting on overall pricing.
Focusing on the USA, the region saw the most pronounced price fluctuations, with the latest quarter-ending price for Lithium Hydroxide Battery Grade DDP USGC settling at USD 14600/MT. The overall trend indicated a marginally positive pricing environment, albeit with complex underlying factors. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, the change was -2%, suggesting a relative stabilization of prices. The first half of the quarter saw a minimal price increase of 1% compared to the latter half, indicating slight but consistent upward momentum in the immediate term.
In summary, while the pricing sentiment has been moderately increasing in Q2 2024, the environment has been largely stable due to balanced supply and demand fundamentals. Despite lower consumer inquiries, steady downstream demand from the domestic automotive sector and increased freight charges have contributed to maintaining the price level. This quarter has thus presented a complex but progressively optimistic scenario for Lithium Hydroxide pricing in the USA.
Asia- Pacific
In Q2 2024, the Lithium Hydroxide market in the APAC region exhibited stable pricing trends, characterized by balanced supply and demand fundamentals. This stability was underpinned by several significant factors. Notably, the consistent production rates among major manufacturers in the region ensured a steady supply, while freight charges, despite experiencing seasonal fluctuations, remained manageable. Additionally, the gradual increase in upstream raw material costs, particularly lithium carbonate, provided moderate cost support to the market. Additionally, demand from downstream sectors, notably battery manufacturers, showcased modest growth, contributing to a balanced market environment. This period also observed cautious procurement strategies from consumers, who were primarily focused on long-term contracts rather than spot purchases.
In Japan, Q2 of 2024 experienced the most notable price shifts within the APAC region. Overall trends reflected a cautious optimism, with prices maintaining an equilibrium amidst external pressures. Seasonality played a role, particularly with anticipated demand fluctuations, yet did not lead to any significant price volatility. The correlation in price changes was evident, with a consistent pattern observed throughout the quarter.
Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, there was a marginal 2% increase, reflecting a slight uptick in market activity. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter remained constant, underscoring the quarter's stable sentiment.
The quarter concluded with the price of Lithium Hydroxide Battery Grade CIF Osaka in Japan standing at USD 13350 per metric ton. This consistent pricing environment, characterized by steady supply and managed demand, highlights stable market sentiment, suggesting neither a distinctly positive nor negative outlook but rather a balanced and predictable market landscape.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the market for Lithium Hydroxide in Europe has experienced a predominantly stable pricing environment. The quarter has been characterized by steady market fundamentals, with supply and demand maintaining equilibrium. Key influencing factors include moderate production rates and stable upstream costs, particularly from the critical spodumene concentrate. Despite logistical challenges such as increased freight charges and congestion in major shipping routes, these did not significantly disrupt the market. The demand from downstream industries, especially for electric vehicles (EVs), showed consistent but subdued growth due to reductions in subsidies and economic uncertainties impacting consumer purchasing power.
In Belgium market, the quarter saw maximum price fluctuations within the region, albeit remaining largely stable overall. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at a modest -2%, indicating a slight decline but maintaining stability. Seasonal factors, such as fluctuations in EV sales and production cycles, also played a role.
A comparative analysis of the first and second halves of the quarter reveals a consistent price across the period, with no percentage change, underscoring stable sentiment in the market. Despite some price volatility within the region, the latest quarter-ending price for Lithium Hydroxide Battery Grade DDP Antwerp in Belgium stands at USD 14300/MT, cementing a stable pricing trend. The pricing environment has been predominantly stable, with neither significant positive nor negative deviations, reflecting a balanced market scenario.
