For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American region experienced a significant increase in Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices. Several factors contributed to this upward trend. The market was influenced by strong demand from various industries, particularly the construction sector.
The positive business sentiment and increased construction activities led to a surge in overall economic activity, boosting confidence in future business prospects. Additionally, the escalating cost of feedstock Ethylene, driven by surging upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices, put pressure on production costs and subsequently pushed LLDPE prices higher. The USA, in particular, witnessed the maximum price changes in the region. The overall trend in the country showed a consistent increase in LLDPE prices throughout the quarter.
There was a 90% increase in prices compared to the same quarter last year, indicating a significant upward trajectory. Moreover, there was a 4% price increase between the first and second half of the quarter, reflecting the continued positive momentum. The quarter-ending price for LLDPE in the USA increased by 2% for Film Butene-based FOB Texas. This price reflects the stable and increasing sentiment in the pricing environment. Overall, the Q1 2024 pricing environment for LLDPE in the North American region, specifically in the USA, has been positive, with consistent price increases driven by robust demand and rising production costs.
APAC
During Q1 2024, the pricing of Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) in the APAC region remained stable. Several factors influenced market prices, including consistent demand from downstream industries such as packaging and construction, stable feedstock Ethylene prices, and adequate supply levels. The market experienced a moderate outlook, with demand remaining relatively steady. In Japan, the LLDPE market saw the maximum price changes during this quarter. Overall, prices remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. There was a correlation between price changes and seasonality, as demand from downstream industries, particularly packaging and construction, remained relatively moderate. In comparison to the same quarter last year, prices decreased by 18%. However, when comparing the first and second half of the quarter, prices declined by 3%. Overall, the pricing environment for LLDPE in the APAC region during Q1 2024 can be characterized as stable, with minimal fluctuations and a moderate demand outlook. The stable feedstock prices and consistent demand from downstream industries contributed to price stability.
Europe
The Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in Europe during Q1 2024 has witnessed increasing prices and stabilized by quarter end, reflecting a positive pricing environment. Several factors have influenced market prices, including the supply-demand dynamics, economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions. Despite these challenges, the LLDPE market in Europe has shown resilience. In the LLDPE prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with an overall upward trend. The price change from the previous quarter in 2024 was 7%, reflecting a continuing upward trajectory. Notably, there was an 8% price increase from the first half to the second half of the quarter. Overall, the LLDPE market in the UK has demonstrated stability and a positive pricing trend. Consequently, the prices of LLDPE in the UK for Film Butene-based FD Surrey surged by 2% and 5% in January and February and remained stable for March. These price fluctuations can be attributed to various factors, including supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuations in feedstock prices. Despite these challenges, LLDPE prices have remained resilient, reflecting the overall positive pricing environment in the European market. In conclusion, the LLDPE market in Europe has experienced increasing prices during Q1 2024. The overall trend has been positive, with significant price changes compared to the same quarter last year and the previous quarter.
MEA
Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) pricing in the MEA region saw fluctuation in price trend as the prices surged initially, however, depreciated by quarter end. In Saudi Arabia, the largest market in the region, prices experienced significant changes. Overall, the quarter had a positive pricing environment with increasing prices. Several factors influenced market prices during this period. The strong demand from downstream industries, particularly the packaging and construction sectors, played a crucial role in driving up prices. Additionally, the limited availability of imported materials due to supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea further tightened the market, contributing to the price increase. The price of LLDPE in Saudi Arabia decreased by 3% compared to the same quarter last year. However, there was a 2% increase in prices from the previous quarter in 2024, indicating a positive price trend. Moreover, there was a 1% price increase between the first and second half of the quarter. The price of LLDPE in Saudi Arabia for Film grade FOB Al Jubail dropped by 1% in March as the demand eased by the quarter end and supplies remained sufficient. In conclusion, Q1 2024 witnessed a positive pricing environment for LLDPE in the MEA region, with prices increasing steadily. The strong demand, supply chain disruptions, and limited availability of imported materials were the key factors driving the price up.
South America
In the first quarter of 2024, the South American region saw a rise in Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices, influenced by several contributing factors. Strong demand from various sectors, notably construction, played a key role in driving this upward trend. Positive business sentiments and increased construction activities bolstered overall economic momentum, instilling confidence in future business prospects. Moreover, the escalating costs of Ethylene feedstock, propelled by surging upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices, exerted pressure on production expenses, consequently pushing LLDPE prices upward. Brazil, in particular, experienced the most significant price fluctuations within the region, showing a consistent uptrend in LLDPE prices throughout the quarter. By the end of the quarter, the price for Film grade CFR Santos LLDPE in Brazil had risen by 2%, reflecting the stable and rising sentiment within the pricing dynamics. Overall, the pricing environment for LLDPE in the South American region during Q1 2024 was marked by positivity, characterized by consistent price hikes driven by robust demand and increasing production costs.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the last quarter of 2023, North American LLDPE prices experienced volatility, beginning with a surge in October but concluding with a depreciation by the quarter's end.
The quoted price for LLDPE Film Butene-based grade FOB Texas(USA) was USD 1103/MT by the conclusion of the quarter in December 2023. The initial price increase in October was driven by rising Ethylene prices and robust demand from the construction, packaging, and automotive sectors. However, November and December saw a decline in LLDPE prices in North America due to falling Naphtha and Crude oil prices, coupled with subdued global market demand. While domestic market demand remained steady, export demand from Asian traders decreased, although inquiries from Latin America and Europe persisted at reduced levels.
In November, export offers began to surface, prompting some producers to adjust their prices downward to align with the softer international sentiment influenced by declining Crude Oil prices. Additionally, supply disruptions were noted as low water levels in the Panama Canal imposed restrictions on the number of ships crossing.
APAC
In the final quarter of 2023, the Asia-Pacific region exhibited a varied trajectory, with countries such as China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand initially showing an inclination in October followed by a decline by the quarter's conclusion. In contrast, the Indian market followed an opposing trend, witnessing a rebound in prices by December. The market in India maintained a moderately bullish stance, while Singapore and South Korea faced bearish conditions due to sluggish domestic demand and lower prices of imported materials. Japan experienced significant changes in LLDPE prices primarily due to a tightening supply of grades resulting from refinery maintenance activities in the Middle East and reduced trade inflows, leading to price increases. Fluctuations in feedstock Ethylene costs also impacted the LLDPE prices. The market also underwent a slight operational adjustment characterized by a decrease in international Crude oil prices and diminishing support for the product on the cost side. Consequently, the quarter-ending price for LLDPE FOB Yokkaichi in Japan was USD 1101/MT.
Europe
Throughout Q4, the European LLDPE market exhibited a pessimistic demand situation, briefly showing an increase in October followed by a decline for the remainder of the quarter. The rise in October was observed in the European PE market, attributed to limited imports from Asia and the Middle East. Market sources suggest that European PE producers have been under substantial cost pressure for an extended period, coupled with weak demand fundamentals, impacting their profitability. As November and December unfolded, the European market witnessed a decline in prices, primarily driven by subdued demand in downstream packaging and construction industries. The construction sector in the Eurozone experienced an overall contraction, notably in France and Germany, with the latter witnessing its most significant output drop in over three and a half years. The housing sector remained the low-performing sub-sector for the fifteenth consecutive month in November, marked by decreasing new orders due to weak demand conditions, resulting in job cuts and a negative outlook for future output. Input costs saw an accelerated increase, prompting construction companies to implement cost-cutting measures. The quarter concluded with the price of LLDPE Film Butene-based FD Surrey in the UK at USD 1551/MT.
MEA
Middle Eastern countries observed fluctuations in the LLDPE market in the fourth quarter, characterized by an initial upswing followed by a downturn, ultimately stabilizing by the quarter's conclusion. The October price surge resulted from sustained demand in downstream sectors, specifically packaging and construction sectors, which countered the declining prices of feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha this month. The Middle Eastern LLDPE market maintained a moderate outlook with a steady supply from both domestic and international sources. However, inflationary pressures impacted consumer sentiments, leading to a reduction in domestic market demand. As the quarter concluded, LLDPE prices experienced a slight decrease attributed to the alleviation of feedstock Ethylene and Crude oil costs, contributing to a reduction in production expenses. Further, the geopolitical tensions in the region and supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea have impacted the demand-supply situation resulting in reduced prices. Moreover, bearish demand sentiments from the Asian and European markets have directly impacted the downward trend of prices. Consequently, the quoted price for LLDPE Film grade FOB Al Jubail at the end of the quarter was USD 894/MT.
South America
In Q4 of 2023, LLDPE prices in Brazil demonstrated a varied pattern, initially rising in October before experiencing a subsequent decline. The price for LLDPE Film grade CFR Santos concluded the quarter at USD 1184/MT. The upward movement in Brazilian LLDPE prices during October was prompted by heightened feedstock Ethylene costs and increased demand from downstream industries like packaging and automotive, impacting material pricing. Traders responded by securing LLDPE for short-term needs and selectively replenishing their inventories, while imported costs from the USA remained elevated. However, as the quarter neared its end, the LLDPE market witnessed a reversal in pricing trends, primarily due to subdued demand from downstream sectors in the region. This decrease was further influenced by a decline in feedstock Ethylene costs, reflecting the overall pessimistic market conditions during the same period. Further, reduced upstream Naphtha costs, stemming from the weakened Crude oil prices, alleviated cost pressures in LLDPE production. The affordability of imported materials from the USA also contributed to an overall reduction in costs within the domestic market. Furthermore, as 2023 concluded, Brazil's manufacturing industry continued to contract, with output and new orders experiencing a decline for the third consecutive month. This situation led to a reduction in input buying as companies prioritized utilization over adding to their inventories.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
LLDPE prices in the third quarter exhibited a fluctuating pattern, primarily influenced by the demand outlook and market dynamics in North America, as the price declined in July but stabilized in August. However, it again declined in the last month of the quarter. Initially, during July, prices experienced a decline due to the impact of the decreasing feedstock price trend, driven by depreciating Naphtha prices. Further, the persistent inflation and higher interest rates negatively affected consumer purchasing behavior, consequently impacting inquiries from downstream packaging and construction sectors. In August, the prices remained stable which was primarily due to the steady demand from the downstream construction sector. The hurricane season and the ongoing backlog of ships at the Panama Canal have caused supply disruption, but sufficient stock availability has kept the prices of LLDPE unchanged. In September, the availability of stocks of LLDPE remained sufficient to meet the existing demand, which prompted the producer to keep their prices low in September, and the price of LLDPE Film Butene based FOB Texas(USA) reached USD 1063/MT. Additionally, the Chevron Phillips plant located in Texas in the US has been shut down after a prolonged operational shutdown in mid-July. The shutdown extension was caused by equipment malfunction. The plant has a capacity of 520,000 mt/year.
APAC
In the third quarter of the year in the Asia-Pacific region, the LLDPE market displayed diverse patterns. Initially, there was a decrease in prices, which was followed by a significant surge, ultimately reaching USD 1014/MT for Film grade FOB Jurong (Singapore) by September 2023. The price drop in July was primarily a result of a combination of weak demand and a surplus supply of LLDPE in the market. The economic slowdown has led to lackluster demand from sectors downstream, like packaging, construction, and automotive industries. However, in August and September, LLDPE prices began to increase, which was linked to the higher cost of its feedstock Ethylene. This cost escalation was driven by the increasing prices of upstream Naphtha and Crude oil. One significant factor contributing to this price trend was the heightened demand for LLDPE in the domestic markets of India and China, propelled by the upcoming festival season and increased industrial activities. Additionally, stable inventory levels within the region created a positive sentiment in the market, suggesting that the LLDPE sector may continue to see upward momentum in the near future.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2023, the European LLDPE market experienced fluctuating prices due to shifts in demand and feedstock costs. In July, prices saw a decline, which persisted through August. However, towards the end of the quarter, prices surged to reach USD 1585/MT Film Butene-based FD Surrey (UK). The drop in July was attributed to sluggish demand from downstream industries, likely due to the summer holidays, high living costs, and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, which reduced consumer spending and hampered demand. Midway through the quarter, prices remained stable as market dynamics showed no significant fluctuations, and demand continued to be moderately low. However, by the end of the third quarter, LLDPE prices rebounded. This increase was primarily driven by a decrease in material supplies caused by lower output rates at regional plants and limited import offers from foreign suppliers. Furthermore, the uptick in demand from the downstream packaging sector supported these price gains. Additionally, Eurostat data indicated a decline in European industrial activities over the previous month, with a -1.1% decrease in Industrial Production output for the Euro Area in August 2023. This trend continued into September, reflecting similar market sentiments. Conversely, Industrial Producer's Prices saw a significant improvement of 0.6% in August, which affected goods consumption in September, influencing pricing dynamics in the European PE market.
MEA
Throughout the third quarter of 2023, the LLDPE market exhibited a fluctuating pattern, influenced by changing sentiments among buyers in both regional and overseas Asian markets. In July, the pricing of LLDPE in Saudi Arabia witnessed a drop, primarily due to a lackluster demand stemming from downstream sectors like packaging and construction. The decrease in prices of feedstock Ethylene also contributed to the overall downward price trend. Rising inflation rates further declined the confidence of domestic buyers, and the demand for Saudi Arabia's LLDPE in Asian countries, particularly India and China, remained subdued due to the prevailing market conditions. However, in the last two months of the quarter, LLDPE prices rebounded and reached USD 974/MT Film grade FOB Al Jubail (Saudi Arabia) in September 2023. This price upswing can be attributed to the increase in feedstock Ethylene prices, driven by the consistent rise in upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices. Demand from downstream sectors like automotive and construction remained stable, as inflation eased in August compared to the previous month, leading to a more positive sentiment among consumers. Moreover, the demand for Saudi Arabian LLDPE from the Asian market was robust, further bolstering the upward price trajectory of the product.
South America
During the third quarter, LLDPE prices displayed a fluctuating pattern in response to demand and market dynamics in South America. Prices initially declined in July, primarily influenced by the decreasing trend in feedstock Benzene prices, driven by the depreciation of Naphtha prices. Further, persistent inflation and higher interest rates negatively impacted consumer purchasing behavior, leading to reduced inquiries from downstream sectors such as packaging and construction. In August, prices stabilized, mainly due to steady demand from the construction sector. Supply disruptions caused by the hurricane season and ongoing ship backlogs at the Panama Canal did not result in price fluctuations, as sufficient stock availability kept LLDPE prices unchanged. In September, there remained ample LLDPE stock to meet existing demand, prompting producers to maintain low prices. As a result, the price of LLDPE Film grade CFR Santos (Brazil) reached USD 1141/MT. This price depreciation was maintained due to consistent stock availability and moderately low demand by the end of this quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The price of Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) has shown a declining trend throughout the second quarter of 2023. The primary reason for the decrement is the lackluster demand from the downstream packaging and construction industries. The ample availability of the product coupled with subdued demand due to inflationary pressures and increased interest rates has influenced the price trajectory for the LLDPE in North America. The price of Film Butene-based grade FOB Texas has witnessed a decline of 2%, 4%, and 7% in April, May, and June, respectively. However, the feedstock Ethylene showed mixed sentiments as the price inclined by 13% in April while falling by 12% for the next two months of the quarter. Furthermore, the plant shutdown of the feedstock Ethylene unit was reported as Chevron Philips Chemical, located in Cedar Bayou, Texas, USA, and had an unplanned shutdown on 14th June 2023. The plant has a capacity of 1.7235 million mt/year. However, any major impact of plant shutdown was not observed in the price of the product in the US.
APAC
During Q2, the LLDPE market has seen a bearish trend in the Asia-Pacific region amid an economic slowdown and lackluster demand from the Chinese market. The demand from downstream packaging, construction, and automotive industries was observed to be sluggish due to market uncertainties caused by inflation and geopolitical tensions across the world. Further, the feedstock Ethyleen and upstream Naphtha price fluctuations have also supported the price trend for LLDPE. The price of LLDPE in Singapore has a decline of 4%, 1%, and 5% in April, May, and June, respectively. Sinopec SABIC Tianjin, LLDPE plant was shut down for maintenance turnaround on 10th June 2023 for a week. The plant is located in China and has a capacity of 300,000 mt/year. Another plant shutdown was reported as the PetroChina Lanzhou LLDPE plant located in China was shut down for maintenance turnaround on 11th June 2023. The duration cannot be ascertained, while the plant has a capacity of 300,000 mt/year. Pengerang Refining and Petrochemical (PRefChem) was shut down for maintenance turnaround from Mid-May to Mid-June. The plant is located in Pengerang in, Malaysia, with a plant capacity of 350,000 mt/year.
Europe
Throughout the second quarter of this year, the LLDPE market has seen a decreasing trend in Europe. The decline in prices was due to reduced demand from downstream industries and ample availability of the product in the market. The slump in demand was observed on account of inflationary pressure and the effects of Russia-Ukraine on market dynamics. Consumers have shown a cautious attitude toward making purchases due to market uncertainties. Further, the feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha's declining prices have influenced the price of LLDPE. The inflation rate in the Euro area, as per Eurostat data, was 7.0% in April, 6.1% in May, and estimated to be 5.5% in June for the same month in the previous year. Although inflation rates were declining, the recession still affected the economy and market dynamics. The decline in LLDPE price in the UK was 1% in all three months this quarter. In Italy, the LLDPE price fell by 1% in the first two months while it fell by 3% in June 2023.
MEA
LLDPE prices continued to decline in the Saudi Arabian market throughout the second quarter of 2023, supported by weak demand and adequate availability of the product. The downward progression of prices for feedstock Ethylene during the specified period has resulted in insufficient cost pressure. Also, the declining prices of upstream Naphtha have impacted Ethylene and LLDPE prices. On the demand side, inquiries from the downstream packaging and construction industry have been weak. Further, the demand from overseas has declined due to market uncertainties across the global market. The price of LLDPE decreased by 6% in April, while a decline of 3% was seen by the end of the quarter. General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) issued on its official website the results of the Industrial Production Index (IPI) for April 2023. The IPI increased by 3.2% in April 2023 in Saudi Arabia. A plant shutdown was reported in Saudi Arabia as Sabica Petrokemya, LLDPE plant was shut down due to maintenance turnaround from End-May 2023 till Early-June 2023. The plant capacity is 400,000 mt/year.
South America
Throughout the second quarter of this year, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices have declined in South America on account of lackluster demand from the downstream packaging, construction, and automotive industries. The primary cause for the unfavorable purchasing sentiments could be attributed to the economic slowdown following the US banking crisis, along with ongoing inflationary pressure and volatile market dynamics. Further, the ample supply of the product amid subdued demand had led to increased inventories, and manufacturers had to keep the prices low to avoid overstocking the product. The feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha decreased prices over the quarter, had also supported the sink in prices of LLDPE. The price of LLDPE Film grade CFR Santos in South America fell by 3%, 4%, and 8% in April, May, and June, respectively. As per Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the manufacturing PMI index was 47.1 in April, 46.9 in May, and 46 in June, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector in the US.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
LLDPE prices have shown fluctuation in the USA market during the first quarter of 2023. During January, LLDPE prices gained a downtrend due to dull buying sentiments and ample supply in the domestic market. Feedstock Ethylene prices have dropped, which resulted in the low production cost of LLDPE in the domestic market. Furthermore, demand from the downstream packaging, the film industry, has remained sluggish as consumer sentiments continue to remain weak in the US region amid ongoing holidays. In addition, sufficient inventories in the domestic market force the manufacturer to revise their negative price quotation. Although, during February and March, LLDPE prices gained upward stability due to improved consumer sentiments. Furthermore, demand for LLDPE from the downstream industries packaging along film industries has remained stable in the domestic market. Thus, prices of LLDPE Butene-based Grade FOB spot Texas were settled at USD 1268/MT during March 2023.
Asia- Pacific
LLDPE prices have showcased an oscillating trend in China during the first quarter of 2023. During the initial of Q1, LLDPE prices declined by 3.3% due to weak demand from the downstream industry and adequate supply in the domestic market. In addition, operating rates have remained weak in the domestic market due to sluggish consumption from the downstream industry. Feedstock Ethylene prices have dropped, which resulted in the low production cost of LLDPE in the domestic market. However, during mid of Q1, LLDPE prices gained upward momentum as market participants replenished the material available in the domestic market. Although, demand from the downstream industries has risen at a slower pace. In addition, the PetroChina plant in Yulin, China, shut down its LLDPE in February plant due to maintenance turnaround, which further impacts the prices of LLDPE in the domestic market. However, the dropped in the procurements from the downstream packaging and film industry, along with ample inventories, forced the manufacturer to decrease their LLDPE prices. Thus, the slowdown in demand and sufficient stockpiles resulted in the price fall towards the end of Q1. Therefore, prices of LLDPE Extrusion coating FOB Shanghai were assessed at USD 1252/MT during March 2023.
Europe
LLDPE prices showed mixed sentiments in the European market during the first quarter of 2023. In the first two months of 2023, LLDPE prices have dropped due to sluggish demand from downstream packaging industries amid ongoing holidays in the European markets. Additionally, imports into the European ports have been steady, as demand in the Asian market remains sluggish, and Asian exporters are taking advantage of better arbitrage opportunities by sending material onto European shores. As a result, there is ample material availability in the regional market, owing to firm imports and stable production rates. However, towards the end of Q1, demand from the downstream food and liquid packaging increased, which resulted in the high prices of LLDPE in the regional market. Thus, prices of LLDPE FD Hamburg were assessed at USD 1564/MT during March 2023.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
A dropping price pattern for LLDPE was seen in the USA during the fourth quarter of 2022, which is quite similar to the decline in LLDPE prices in the US during Q3 2022. The steady decline of LLDPE prices on a monthly basis in the US during the third quarter continued during the fourth quarter also because of the high availability of the material amidst poor demand. The lowering price trend of the US LDPE during Q4 2022 was unaffected by the varying upstream Ethylene price. Prices for the product in the US decreased as a result of weak downstream demand and ample availability of the material in the country.
APAC
With the exception of the Chinese market, where prices of Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) increased in the final month of the fourth quarter of 2022, Asian markets witnessed dropping LLDPE prices throughout Q4 2022. The main factors that caused the prices of LLDPE to fall during Q4 2022 were unfavorable economic conditions in China, the world's largest importer, and subpar performance in the downstream industries in several Asian countries. However, a little increase in the price of LLDPE was observed in the Chinese market at the end of Q4 2022 owing to a sudden increase in demand in the Chinese market as well as a marginal increase of around 0.5% (during October-November) in upstream Ethylene prices.
Europe
In the first month of Q4 2022, there was a small fall in LLDPE prices in the European region due to the weak demand from the downstream industries. The domestic markets' weak downstream packaging demand was the primary driver of LLDPE's downward price trend. In spite of the weak demand forecast for LLDPE in Europe, prices increased in the final two months of Q4 2022 as stocks in the European region started to decline and the high input costs, such as energy and the rising price trend of upstream Ethylene, started to catch up with the manufacturers in the European region.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The Prices of LLDPE in the US have constantly been tumbling throughout the third quarter of 2022 because of earlier falling feedstock ethylene prices and falling upstream costs. American market's LLDPE prices have dropped as a result of a decline in demand from the packaging and film sectors during Q3 2022. Along with this, the cost of Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) dropped in line with the market price of the feedstock ethylene, which also reduced the upstream costs related to the production of LLDPE. The price of LLDPE during the end of Q3 in the US was recorded at around USD 1686/MT LLDPE Film Butene based Grade FOB (spot) Texas.
APAC
LLDPE prices in China's domestic market decreased during the start of Q3 2022 due to lower demand from end-consumer industries such as plastic packaging, dairy, and cooking oil. Due to the high availability of products and low demand in the domestic market, manufacturers are forced to reduce prices. Low feedstock ethylene costs abetted the price drop of LLDPE during the start of the third quarter of 2022. The last month of Q3 2022 LLDPE prices in China witnessed a hike on the back of improved buying sentiments for Polyethylene (PE). Other major Asian markets followed a similar trend to that of China during the third quarter of 2022. The price of LLDPE in Japan was recorded at around USD 1443/MT LLDPE FOB Yokkaichi
Europe
Material supplies remained strong, and demand from various end-use sectors for LLDPE continued to disappoint during the third quarter of 2022. Demand was lower than would normally be expected during the summer holiday season due to heightened economic uncertainty and pressure on consumer purchasing power. Sufficient material was available to meet weak demand, but production cutbacks and maintenance turnarounds constrained supply also in the European market. Imports from the Middle East and Asia also flourished, dampening the cost of LLDPE in Europe. Strong availability of upstream Naphtha in the European market abetted the decreasing price trend of LLDPE during Q3 in the European region. The price of LLDPE in Germany during the end of Q3 was recorded at around USD 1645/MT LLDPE Film FD Hamburg.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The prices of LLDPE (Linear Low-Density Polyethylene) showcased mixed sentiments in North America during quarter 2 of 2022, backed by fluctuating demand and supply dynamics. The market value of LLDPE inclined in April and then depicted a stable to marginally declining pricing trend till June. The changing consumer buying activity during the entire quarter was one of the major factors behind these fluctuations. Furthermore, the downstream demand from the packaging and film industries flickered in the quarter. In addition, there was a lack of supply competitiveness in April for LLDPE, which soared in its value, and the situation became stagnant with the passing weeks. The assessed value of LLDPE Film Butene-based Grade FOB (Spot) Nevada was USD 2015/MT in April, de-escalating to USD 2009/MT in June.
APAC
The Asia-Pacific region witnessed fluctuations in Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market during the second quarter of 2022. In China, the prices of LLDPE increased in April, declined in May, and regained their upward momentum in June. These fluctuations were mainly caused due to changing purchasing patterns of consumers. Inconsistency in the supply rate was another major reason behind the instability in LLDPE prices. The market value of LLDPE Film Extrusion Grade at FOB Shanghai inclined to USD 1440/MT in June, which was USD 1410/MT in May. Similarly, in India, the price of LLDPE Film Extrusion increased in April, decreased in May, and went flat in June because of changing dynamics between demand and supply in the domestic market. Conclusively, the price of LLDPE Film Extrusion assembled at USD 1591/MT in June.
Europe
In Europe, the market value of Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) increased till May and then dropped marginally in June. Strong downstream demand from the packaging and film industry, along with surging oil prices, were two crucial factors that gave rise to the prices of LLDPE in the first two months of the quarter. Furthermore, the ports were congested, supplies were constrained, and the freight charges were higher amidst Russia-Ukraine war tensions which further exacerbated the worth of LLDPE in the European countries. Thus, the prices of LLDPE Film FD Hamburg assembled at USD 1925/MT in June, which was USD 1870/MT in April and marked a rise of 2.9% between two months.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
Linear Low Density Polyethylene market in the first quarter of 2022 witnessed a supply shock in the feedstock ethylene market as the region’s largest refinery at ExxonMobil’s Baytown facility in Texas caught fire in the last week of December 2021. Demand witnessed a sharp rise by the second week of February and the planned cost push of USD 0.07/lb by major domestic producers including ExxonMobil, Lyondell Basel and Dow Chemicals. Other producers were hesitant to hike their offers due to lower than expected demand as well as an uncertain supply chain scenario vis-à-vis the overseas market. The month of March saw prices stabilize after witnessing a sharp surge of USD 90/MT in the last week of February. The stabilization was mostly due to a softening in the ethylene monomer market driven by lowered Natural Gas Liquid prices (Propane and Ethane) and injection of new capacities, especially with the commencement of production at the SABIC-Exxon JV with a combined capacity of producing 1.3mn tons of LLDPE and m-LLDPE per year that diluted the supply crunch in the month of March.
Asia Pacific
Chinese LLDPE market saw prices surge in the third week of January on the back of supply shortages due to the Chinese government’s strict covid 19 protocols that caused a significant amount of production to go offline as well as delayed container transit in to and out of critical container terminals such as Ningbo and Shanghai. Imports from the Korean Peninsula, India and the US found it hard to make their way into the domestic market. After a temporary slump in demand in the first week of February at the onset of Lunar new year holidays, demand finally grew stronger by the last week of February as the start of war in eastern Europe prompted buyers, mostly downstream moulders, and extruders to stock up their inventories in expectation of higher feedstock monomer prices. India and the Middle East saw comparable price trends during the quarter ending March. Manufacturers including SABIC, RIL and ONGC Petro additions ltd, have revised their prices upwards in the second half of January and the contracts were further pushed up in the month of February by RIL by INR 9500/MT. The month of March however saw another INR 10500/MT contract push by Indian manufacturers in response to the sudden surge in Crude oil prices in the first week of march to reach their highest value since June of 2008.
Europe
European LLDPE production during the quarter ending March had come under extraordinary pressure from disruption of natural gas supplies during the first half of the quarter. European natural gas demand rises sharply during the peak winter season, add to that, the lowered flow rates of Natural gas through the Nord Stream and Yamal pipelines, the two most important feed streams to North-West Europe, operational costs for the European manufacturing community have already been unfeasible by the first half of Q1 of 2022. The onset of war between Russia and Ukraine had further deteriorated the crisis, especially for the upstream ethylene producers as most naphtha crackers were rendered inoperable due to tighter naphtha crack spreads translating into negative Ethylene-Naphtha spreads. Benchmark Ethylene spot prices assessed on an FD North-West Europe basis have seen a whopping 32% rise between 25th of February and 17th of March. Standard LLDPE film prices for northwest Europe for Q1 of 2022 averaged around Euro 2000/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
LLDPE market in the USA experienced a similar trend to that of HDPE and LDPE, where prices were lower on an average in Q4 of FY22 compared to Q3 of FY22. Production levels were lower compared to Q4 of FY20 as manufacturers struggled to find demand from export markets. Although the Ethylene to LLDPE spread narrowed by the end of November, suppliers and traders struggled to gain any leverage due to lack of demand in the domestic market and disruption in logistical networks to major exporting regions like Northeast Asia. The prices of Butene based LLDPE had seen a reduction of 55USD/MT during the second week of December FY21 assessed on an FOB Houston basis. The first quarter of FY22 could see a further downward revision in prices as per ChemAnalyst’s assessment as export markets are ailing from supply chain disruptions and new capacities being added to the US production of LLDPE such as the SABIC-ExxonMobil Joint Venture near Portland, Texas which started operations from the tail end of December. The JV adds a combined LLDPE and m LLDPE capacity of 1.3mn MT which could cause a surplus market for Q1 lowering the prices further down.
Asia
Asian LLDPE market during Q4 witnessed a supply tightness due to high freight costs and the shortage of coal supplies which led to an energy crisis in China. The prices of LLDPE in Q4 were on an average 5.2% higher in Q4 of FY21 for the high flow grade compared to the Q3 prices. Although the energy crisis eased out by the last week of November FY21, thanks to a government intervention, most polyethylene and polypropylene manufacturing in China is still dependent on coal as energy source and the supplies of coal had been diverted towards power generation rendering production cuts at most PE and PP plants. India too faced a similar situation with coal shortage from the tail end of October and continuing till the first week of December FY21. The prices of LLDPE extrusion coating grade had seen an increase of 10% from the Q3 prices assessed on an Ex-Location (Mumbai) basis. Although prices were revised downwards by RIL, Haldia petrochemicals and Opal in the month of December ahead of the holiday season, prices are expected to get an upward thrust during the second half of January as a result of pandemic related production disruption combined with a general rise in demand.
Europe
Demand for LLDPE from the domestic market saw a slight decrease from the Q3 levels. Production levels in Q4 of FY21 were around 80-90% of the Q4 of FY20 levels. The price of Butene based LLDPE film on an average saw marginal decline of 2.2% from the Q3 price when assessed on an FD Hamburg basis. Demand -Supply fundamentals deteriorated to the end of December as major exporters in Europe such as Belgium and Netherlands struggled from the drop in demand from the East Asian markets during December as the new wave of pandemic led to a disruption of logistic networks. Ethylene to LLDPE spread improved by the closing weeks of December as manufacturers found it hard to improve margins. The outlook for Q1 of FY22 remains bullish as European energy demand increase during the peak winter season resulting in an increase in prices of Natural Gas which is also an upstream for the Ethane steam crackers. The impact of the pandemic may offset the increase in demand in the month of January FY22.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The market outlook of LLDPE witnessed an upward trajectory in the North American region during the third quarter of 2021. The prices of US film grade LLDPE followed the trend of other polyethylene grades throughout the quarter as feedstock ethylene prices have been the key driver in determining the prices of all the variants of the Polyethylene family. A steep plunge in the prices of Ethylene was offset by traders seeking higher margins. The effect of Hurricane Ida itself seemed to have minimal effect on the price trend although production got constrained as manufacturers on the Gulf coast were forced to shut down in the last week of August. The price of film grade LLDPE stood around 1650 USD/MT FOB Texas and 1680 USD/MT FOB Nevada in August.
Asia
The domestic market price of LLDPE witnessed a steep rise in the Asia Pacific region in Q3 2021. LLDPE prices in India demonstrated prominent gains followed by the restricted availability of the product and bullish offers from several overseas suppliers. In India, the price of high flow grade of LLDPE escalated from USD 1411/MT to USD 1533/MT during the quarter. Prolonged shortage of containers and high freight costs pressurised suppliers to raise their spot offers once again for Southeast Asia. As high year-end premiums were being laid on the Middle-East origin import cargoes, several traders were reported carrying out a positive revision in their prices under its influence throughout the quarter.
Europe
The overall LLDPE market experienced mixed sentiments in the European region during the third quarter. The prices of LLDPE witnessed a downtrend and last stood at USD 1720 per MT FD Hamburg in September. Downstream demand remained firm across all derivatives through Q3. Some players anticipated a squeeze on derivative margins with regards to their pricing. Prices of several polymers rose in this quarter as well, due to the shortage of feedstocks caused by prolonged unplanned turnarounds across Europe and the gulf of the USA.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
LLDPE prices witnessed consistent rise this quarter in North America region, backed by lower availability and rising feedstock prices. Due to lower availability of several PE resins in the USA, prices increased effectively throughout the quarter supported by stable demand from downstream packaging sector of the country. Rapid vaccination drive, led to a rebound in production and consumption activities across the region, which eventually increased the consumption. In addition, rising upstream crude oil value amid increasing domestic consumption also concerned different sectors, as the prices of several downstream commodities were rising frequently. Therefore, after reaching a significant rise, price of LLDPE revolved around USD 1700/MT for film grade during the last week of June.
Asia
Asian LLDPE market remained largely dull during this quarter due to dented demand and ample stock availability. However, In China, marginal price improvement was observed for different grades of LLDPE due to rising upstream values and modest demand outlook in the country. While in India, prices kept drifting due to dented demand after unprecedented surge in COVID pandemic in the country. Therefore, prices of LLDPE were assessed at USD 1394/MT (Extrusion grade) and USD 1630/MT (High flow grade) in India and China respectively during the first week of June 2021.
Europe
Europe experienced huge spike in prices of several resins including LDPE and LLDPE during this period, supported by firm demand and inadequate supply activities across the region. Prices of several polymers kept rising, due to shortage of feedstocks caused by prolonged unplanned turnarounds across Europe and Gulf of USA. In addition, other factors like container shortage and other logistical issues exacerbated this rise.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
In North America, prices of LLDPE skyrocketed during Q1 2021, due low supply across the region. Prices of LLDPE across the US market showed consistent hikes since Q4 2020. FOB Texas LLDPE film grade offers surged to USD 1185 per MT by the end of January, showing more than 29% hike than its Q4 2020 price. This extreme rise in prices was led by reduced domestic production activities and extreme shortage of Ethylene, due to winter storm across USA gulf region. The impact of Arctic freeze which took place in the second half of February were clearly visible in the country’s latest trade data. As per the stats from the US Commerce Department, USA polyethylene (PE) exports dropped from 937.5 KT in January to 742 KT tons in February 2021.
Asia
The Asian market experienced a bullish trend in the prices of LLDPE throughout the quarter. The trend was initiated due to low product availability as an effect of lower US imports and increased shipping container and freight prices across the region. The demand remained resolutely high from the packaging sector and a lot of desperation amidst buyers for securing supply could be observed in India and South Korea. PetroChina shut it LLDPE/HDPE plant of capacity 300,000 MT/year for the purpose of maintenance during the end of March, which ultimately reduced the total output of the region. In mid-February to March, several US converters reported low inventories as they were struggling to restart operations after the freeze fallout. This created global shortage of LLDPE which eventually led to rise in its prices across Asia. Like in India, average price of almost all LLDPE grades soured by around 12% within Q1.
Europe
The European market experienced rise in prices of several polymers including LLDPE, due to lower production and lesser imports. Surging global rates supported the uptrend in the regional prices. Imports from USA was reduced to negligible due to plant shutdowns amid rare winter storm across North American region, meanwhile Middle east increased their export prices of polymers to Europe to cater to its skyrocketing demand. Prices took an upwards rally backed by significant improvement in crude oil prices.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
North America
North America stands behind Asia in terms of Polyethylene capacities. Supply remained tightened throughout July-Sep quarter with a number of planned and unplanned ethylene cracker outages as a large part of the region remained impacted with Hurricane Laura, which disrupted operations at several LLDPE plants, thereby restricting the availability of the product for longer than expected. LLDPE offers were raised substantially during the quarter with limited export activity and additional increases expected in the next two months. However, increasing competition between different grades and sellers is likely to put a cap on the LLDPE pricing in the region.
Asia
The Asian LLDPE market got hampered despite gradual pick up in the economy in the third quarter. The Southeast Asian plant capacities which were anticipated to come onstream by the second half of 2020 had to delay operations to 2021 due to economic fallout and overflowing inventories in China. While the plant deadlines seemed extended, demand outlook turned in favor owing to greater consumption by the food packaging sectors. Regional demand from the food packaging sector has risen almost around 15% from the last year’s as a greater population stayed at home this quarter. Players expressed concerns regarding overall production of Polyethylene in Southeast Asia post September due to major cracker turnarounds scheduled on cards.
