For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the LLDPE Price Index fell by 4.97% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting easing demand and downstream activity.
• The average LLDPE price for the quarter was approximately USD 1014.00/MT, reflecting domestic and export demand dynamics.
• LLDPE Spot Price volatility eased as producer offers stayed firm and buyers maintained procurement strategies.
• LLDPE Price Forecast shows modest near-term weakness as elevated inventories and subdued offshore demand persist.
• LLDPE Production Cost Trend remained contained from steady ethylene feedstock and stable energy inputs nationwide.
• LLDPE Demand Outlook is mixed with packaging holding but construction and automotive demand remaining weak.
• LLDPE Price Index movements reflected logistical congestion early in the quarter and improved distribution efficiencies.
• Export demand weakness and high domestic stocks pressured offers; Gulf Coast plants maintained operating rates.
Why did the price of LLDPE change in September 2025 in North America?
• Ample domestic inventories and subdued exporter inquiries reduced urgency for buying, pressuring offers lower materially.
• Steady ethylene feedstock prices constrained cost-driven increases, therefore supporting neutral margins across most producers near-term.
• Improved inland logistics and maintained plant runs prevented shortages, moderating volatility despite localized freight disruptions.
APAC
• In Japan, the LLDPE Price Index fell by 9.97% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting persistent oversupply and muted downstream demand.
• The average LLDPE price for the quarter was approximately USD 1972.00/MT, reflecting mixed dynamics regionally.
• LLDPE Spot Price movements were volatile mid-quarter as rising ethylene elevated the LLDPE Production Cost Trend.
• LLDPE Demand Outlook remains subdued, causing the LLDPE Price Index to show downward pressure despite construction support.
• Near-term LLDPE Price Forecast suggests range-bound movement, influenced by export flows and seasonal restocking for festivals.
• Naphtha and ethylene swings underpin the LLDPE Production Cost Trend, intermittently supporting sellers against weak buying.
• Elevated inventories pressured offers, while export demand provided relief sporadically impacting the LLDPE Spot Price.
• Major plants ran steady; freight frictions and yen volatility influenced margins and the domestic LLDPE Price Index.
Why did the price of LLDPE change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Supply remained ample as crackers operated at regular rates, creating surplus LLDPE and downward pressure on pricing.
• Falling ethylene and naphtha reduced cost support, weakening sellers' ability to sustain previous offers in domestic markets.
• Logistics delays, holiday shutdowns and cautious converter procurement dampened spot activity, limiting absorption of available inventories.
Europe
• In Germany, Linear Low Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 9.56% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weak demand.
• The average Linear Low Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 1170.00/MT delivered locally.
• Linear Low Density Polyethylene Spot Price weakened as imports and inventories pressured the Price Index.
• Linear Low Density Polyethylene Price Forecast projects gains as seasonal packaging restocking tightens spot availability.
• Linear Low Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend eased as ethylene and naphtha costs declined moderately.
• Linear Low Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook remains muted with construction lagging despite packaging sector resilience.
• Linear Low Density Polyethylene Price Index volatility reflected cautious buying, logistical surcharges, euro fluctuations affecting imports.
• Elevated inventories and steady cracker runs limited upside while selective export demand tightened prompt availability.
Why did the price of Linear Low Density Polyethylene change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Abundant ethylene and steady cracker output increased supply, overwhelming muted converter demand locally.
• Freight surcharges and euro weakness raised landed import costs, offsetting lower ethylene production costs.
• Cautious buyers and ample inventories, combined with competitive imports, limited restocking urgency significantly.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Linear Low Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 6.3% quarter-over-quarter, oversupply.
• The average Linear Low Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 898.33/MT value.
• Import competition and freight volatility pressured the Linear Low Density Polyethylene Spot Price, reducing netbacks.
• Linear Low Density Polyethylene Price Forecast indicates sideways to softer values amid weak Asian demand.
• Stable ethylene contracts kept Linear Low Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend benign, limiting market pressure.
• Linear Low Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook is cautious; converters procure hand-to-mouth amid subdued downstream activity.
• Linear Low Density Polyethylene Price Index reflected downward bias as inventories increased and offers softened.
• Export demand weakness and freight costs curtailed offtake, shaping Linear Low Density Polyethylene Price Forecast.
Why did the price of Linear Low Density Polyethylene change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Resumed full-capacity production increased supply, overwhelming regional offtake and pressuring market Price Index downward notably.
• Flat ethylene feedstock costs limited cost-push support while elevated freight and import competition reduced demand.
• Buyers delayed large spot purchases, adopting hand-to-mouth procurement as inventories rose and downstream demand softened.
South America
• In Brazil, the LLDPE Price Index fell by 4.67% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weaker demand and ample imports.
• The average LLDPE price for the quarter was approximately USD 1149.00/MT, supported by steady US import offers.
• Balanced import flows and inventory accumulation anchored the LLDPE Spot Price, constraining upward momentum short-term.
• Regional logistics improvements eased landed costs, moderating the LLDPE Production Cost Trend modestly this quarter.
• Converter buying restraint and seasonal slowdowns shaped the LLDPE Demand Outlook, keeping offtake subdued regionally.
• Market intelligence and smoother shipping informed the LLDPE Price Forecast, indicating near-term range-bound behaviour overall.
• Stable operations at regional producers restrained volatility in the LLDPE Price Index, limiting acute spikes.
• High inventories and competitive US export offers pressured sellers, constraining bids and transactional volumes sharply.
Why did the price of LLDPE change in September 2025 in South America?
• Consistent US import arrivals maintained supply, reducing upward pressure on CIF parity and domestic offers.
• Subdued converter purchasing and seasonal slowdowns reduced offtake, amplifying inventory-driven downward pressure during September month-end.
• Lower ethylene costs and improved freight lowered production burdens, limiting cost-push inflation in the region.
• Weak automotive, textile procurement and exporters clearing stock created bearish sentiment, widening arbitrage into UAE.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The LLDPE Spot Price in the U.S. declined by 1% during Q2 2025, reflected in a softening Price Index driven by ample domestic availability and weak buying interest.
• The LLDPE Production Cost Trend remained stable despite fluctuations in feedstock ethylene costs, as producers managed operations and inventories efficiently.
• Export volumes dropped following tariff disruptions, and domestic demand from packaging, construction, and automotive sectors stayed muted, influencing a cautious procurement environment.
• The LLDPE Demand Outlook for early Q3 remains balanced but underwhelming, with market participants awaiting more clarity on trade policies and broader economic indicators.
Why did the price of LLDPE change in July 2025 in North America?
• In July 2025, the LLDPE Spot Price declined due to excess supply and subdued downstream offtake.
• The LLDPE Production Cost Trend was stable, but weak margins led sellers to offer discounts.
• The LLDPE Demand Outlook stayed cautious amid trade-related uncertainties and slow construction activity.
• The LLDPE Price Forecast suggests limited near-term upside unless stronger demand emerges across packaging and infrastructure sectors.
APAC
• The LLDPE Price Index in Indonesia declined by 3% in Q2 2025, with the LLDPE Spot Price falling due to abundant low-cost imported material, primarily from China and the Middle East.
• The LLDPE Production Cost Trend stayed mostly steady, as lower logistics costs and limited feedstock volatility kept producer expenses in check.
• The LLDPE Demand Outlook remained soft, with cautious procurement across packaging, construction, and automotive sectors, despite minor signs of recovery in Indonesia’s housing programs.
• Trade sentiment was subdued due to geopolitical uncertainties, muted economic signals from China, and seasonal downstream inactivity.
Why did the price of LLDPE change in July 2025 in Asia?
• In July 2025, the LLDPE Spot Price in Indonesia declined as abundant supply met weak downstream demand.
• The LLDPE Production Cost Trend was steady, supported by declining freight rates and stable energy prices.
• The LLDPE Demand Outlook stayed underwhelming due to slow order volumes from converters and continued inventory caution.
• The LLDPE Price Forecast remains mildly bearish unless stronger consumption emerges from key sectors like construction and flexible packaging.
Europe
• The LLDPE Price Index in Europe declined significantly in Q2 2025, with persistent market oversupply and subdued downstream consumption driving the downturn.
• The LLDPE Production Cost Trend eased due to lower feedstock ethylene prices and softened energy costs, which, however, failed to offset weak market fundamentals.
• The LLDPE Demand Outlook remained muted, especially in packaging, construction, and automotive sectors, with limited spot market activity and cautious procurement across buyers.
• Ample availability of competitively priced imports from the U.S. and Turkey, along with delayed restocking, further contributed to a soft trading environment.
Why did the price of LLDPE change in July 2025 in Europe?
• The LLDPE Spot Price decreased in early July due to buyer hesitation, high inventories, and subdued spot market activity.
• The LLDPE Production Cost Trend remained favorable, with feedstock ethylene prices easing and upstream costs stabilizing.
• The LLDPE Demand Outlook stayed weak amid limited downstream orders, especially in construction and packaging, despite isolated signs of civil engineering recovery.
• The LLDPE Price Forecast indicates continued mild bearishness, shaped by cautious sentiment, adequate supply, and weak summer demand.
MEA
• The LLDPE Price Index in Saudi Arabia declined by 14% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, driven by persistent oversupply and muted regional demand.
• The LLDPE Production Cost Trend remained soft, supported by low feedstock ethylene and naphtha values, enabling producers to maintain output with minimal margin pressure.
• The LLDPE Demand Outlook was weak across domestic and export markets, as downstream sectors like construction and packaging showed restrained procurement despite government infrastructure projects.
• Export demand from key destinations like Asia and Turkey remained subdued due to evolving U.S. trade policies, global shipping constraints, and logistical disruptions, weighing on market sentiment.
Why did the price of LLDPE change in July 2025 in MEA?
• The LLDPE Spot Price declined due to falling crude prices, abundant supply, and subdued offtake from both domestic and overseas markets.
• The LLDPE Production Cost Trend remained stable, anchored by sufficient feedstock availability and improving industrial output.
• The LLDPE Demand Outlook stayed cautious, with seasonal slowdowns, labor shortages, and slow project execution limiting downstream consumption.
• The LLDPE Price Forecast remains weak, shaped by ongoing external pressures, soft global demand, and a surplus supply situation.
South America
• The LLDPE Price in Brazil declined by 1% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reflecting a softening in the regional Price Index amid changing trade dynamics and inconsistent downstream demand.
• Importers grew increasingly cautious following tariff announcements from the U.S. government, Brazil’s primary supplier. This led to reduced exposure to U.S.-origin material, weighing on the Demand Outlook and prompting suppliers to lower prices to maintain market share.
• The LLDPE Production Cost Trend remained steady, but competitive import pricing and concerns over potential antidumping measures pressured domestic producers like Braskem to hold or reduce prices.
• In July 2025, the LLDPE price decreased primarily due to surplus availability, muted procurement activity in packaging and construction sectors, and inflation-related cost sensitivity across the supply chain.
Why did the price of LLDPE change in July 2025 in South America?
• In July 2025, the LLDPE Spot Price in Brazil declined due to reduced U.S. import dependency, steady production rates, and subdued demand.
• The LLDPE Price Forecast points to cautious upward potential, contingent on any enforcement of antidumping duties or supply disruptions.
• A soft Demand Outlook from packaging and construction limited buying momentum despite stable infrastructure activity and moderate automotive recovery.
• The LLDPE Production Cost Trend stayed unchanged, but falling import costs and competitive international offers contributed to the downward pricing pressure.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market showed an initially strong performance, driven by solid demand from packaging, construction, and automotive sectors. Price hikes in January and February were supported by tight supply, as severe winter weather disrupted production and led to unplanned outages. Ongoing maintenance activities and concerns over upcoming tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada prompted aggressive spot buying, further boosting prices.
However, the market sentiment shifted in March. A slowdown in end-user demand, especially from the construction and automotive industries, combined with ample supply, led to a marginal price drop. Lower feedstock ethylene costs reduced production expenses and the easing of earlier disruptions allowed supply to stabilize. Tariff-related uncertainties and cautious buying behavior also weighed on the market, limiting price growth.
Overall, prices rose 4% in Q1 2025 compared to the previous quarter, although March saw a quarter-ending price decline of 2.2% for LLDPE Film Butene-based grade FOB Texas. Market participants now face the challenge of navigating weaker demand and trade policy shifts, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances likely to influence pricing strategies in the near term.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in the APAC region displayed a mixed performance shaped by regional disparities in supply, demand, and import costs. Indonesia experienced a steady uptrend in prices, primarily driven by rising import costs from Middle Eastern suppliers and firm domestic demand from the packaging and manufacturing sectors. Seasonal restocking ahead of Ramadan, coupled with currency depreciation, contributed to a cumulative price rise. By March, the price for LLDPE Film Grade CFR Tanjung Priok rose by 0.5%. In contrast, South Korea saw a softer market, with weak downstream demand, stable ethylene feedstock costs, and ample supply putting downward pressure on prices. Buyers remained cautious amid subdued industrial activity and global uncertainties, leading to a 0.2% drop in March for Film Grade CFR Busan. While Indonesia’s LLDPE market benefited from seasonal and economic factors, South Korea’s market was constrained by limited demand and oversupply. Market participants now face challenges from divergent regional trends, fluctuating import costs, and cautious downstream consumption across the region.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the European LLDPE market showed a mixed trajectory, with prices increasing through January and February before reversing course in March. Early-quarter gains were driven by tightened domestic availability, higher feedstock ethylene and naphtha costs, and a drop in low-cost imports, which prompted restocking among buyers. Producers raised prices in response to constrained supply and cost pressures, while seasonal demand from the agricultural film sector added support. However, inflationary headwinds and limited construction activity continued to weigh on overall demand. By March, weak demand across packaging, construction, and industrial sectors reasserted dominance over cost factors. Buyers grew cautious amid economic uncertainties and anticipated further softening in prices. Sufficient regional inventories and the easing of ethylene prices dampened the upward momentum seen earlier in the quarter. Additional pressure stemmed from looming trade policy risks, including a potential tariff on U.S. polyethylene imports. As buyers reduced procurement to essential volumes, sentiment remained conservative. LLDPE Film FD Hamburg closed in March 2025 with a 3.5% monthly decline. This marked a 1% drop in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. While prices had risen steadily in the first two months, March’s pullback underscored the fragility of demand recovery and the persistent uncertainty clouding Europe’s LLDPE market.
MEA
In Q1 2025, the LLDPE market in the MEA region, particularly in Saudi Arabia, demonstrated a consistent upward pricing trend, driven by strong domestic and export demand, seasonal restocking, and tightening supply conditions. The quarter began with modest price increases as buyers replenished inventories ahead of Ramadan, a period typically marked by heightened consumption in the packaging and food sectors. While the early quarter saw some relief in production costs due to lower feedstock ethylene prices, firm global polyethylene market conditions and rising crude oil prices gradually exerted upward cost pressure across the value chain. The supply situation was further strained by regional production challenges and limited import availability, particularly as planned maintenance activities at some plants reduced output capacity. Middle Eastern suppliers noted consistent overseas interest in PE grades from Saudi Arabia and neighboring Gulf countries, which helped maintain market momentum. By March, although prices continued to rise, the pace of increase slowed to 0.5% amid buyer hesitancy and caution surrounding post-Ramadan pricing strategies. Overall, prices in Q1 2025 rose by 2% compared to Q4 2024. However, market participants now face challenges tied to supply chain disruptions, inflationary cost pressures, and shifting demand patterns, prompting a cautious approach as they await clearer signals for Q2.
South America
In Q1 2025, the South American LLDPE market, particularly in Brazil, showed a mixed trend shaped by shifting supply dynamics, external market disruptions, and seasonal demand patterns. Prices climbed steadily through January and February, supported by robust demand in packaging, automotive, and construction sectors, as well as supply constraints due to U.S. production disruptions caused by Winter Storm Enzo and scheduled maintenance. Rising feedstock costs, especially higher ethylene prices, and elevated shipping rates further pushed up import prices, tightening availability in Brazil and sustaining the upward price momentum. However, this trend reversed in March as global supply chains stabilized and U.S. suppliers resumed offers at more competitive rates. Softer freight charges and increased availability of lower-cost imports eased pressure on the Brazilian market, leading to a correction in prices. Despite these shifts, demand fundamentals remained resilient, with consistent consumption across industrial segments and improving business activity. Although the quarter ended with a 2% decline in March, the overall price movement for Q1 showed a net increase of 4% compared to Q4 2024. This volatility presents challenges for market participants navigating unpredictable import costs, logistical bottlenecks, and the impact of fluctuating global supply conditions on local pricing strategies.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in North America experienced a notable decline, primarily due to weakening demand from key industries such as packaging, construction, and automotive. The drop in demand, combined with lower feedstock Ethylene prices, suggested an oversupply in the market, which added further pressure to pricing dynamics. Producers faced difficulties in maintaining market balance as the excess supply and softer demand continued to persist through the quarter.
Logistical disruptions further complicated the situation in North America. The impact of hurricanes and a strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) at U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports led to delays and strain on port operations, exacerbating supply chain challenges. These disruptions not only delayed shipments but also added to the overall uncertainty in the market. As a result, businesses were forced to adjust their operations, contributing to the volatility in LLDPE pricing and market activity.
The U.S. Presidential Election introduced additional uncertainty to the market, leading to reduced investments and cautious inventory accumulation. With potential changes in policies and trade dynamics, including the possibility of tariff increases under the incoming administration, market participants remained hesitant. This political uncertainty, coupled with the overall weaker demand, resulted in a broader market slowdown. By December, LLDPE Film Butene-based grade FOB Texas prices had dropped to USD 1060/MT, reflecting the significant price adjustments faced by the North American LLDPE sector.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in the APAC region experienced fluctuating trends, with prices rising initially before declining toward the end of the quarter. Early in the quarter, elevated buying interest and higher offers for November-December shipments from overseas sellers drove prices upward. However, the growing gap between buyers' bids and sellers' offers hindered transaction volumes, limiting market activity. Supply chain disruptions played a significant role, as Typhoon Kong-Rey caused severe congestion and delays at key Asian ports such as Shanghai, Ningbo, and Kaohsiung, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances. Rising freight rates further pressured market dynamics, especially as carriers imposed blank sailings ahead of the Chinese New Year, leading to constrained shipping capacity. By December, prices began to decline, driven by eased demand from downstream sectors, such as packaging and automotive, amid year-end destocking activities. Manufacturing growth slowed, with reduced export orders and weaker employment levels reflecting a cautious market sentiment. Japan witnessed the steepest price corrections, with LLDPE prices falling to USD 1051/MT FOB Yokkaichi by the quarter’s end. These developments highlight the combined impact of logistical challenges, fluctuating demand, and macroeconomic pressures on the regional LLDPE market.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in Europe experienced a gradual decline, largely due to decreasing feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha costs, coupled with subdued demand from key sectors such as packaging, construction, and automotive. Economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions led to cautious purchasing behavior, with buyers delaying commitments in anticipation of further price drops. This hesitancy, alongside high inventory levels, contributed to oversupply challenges as sellers worked to clear stocks. Reduced production costs provided limited relief, as weak demand overshadowed any potential stabilization. The market also faced pressure from reduced Asia-Europe ocean freight rates, which were influenced by diminished shipping activity following the peak season. This decline dampened import demand and added downward momentum to LLDPE prices. Seasonal factors, including the typical year-end holiday slowdown, further suppressed consumption across downstream industries. Low housing activity in the Eurozone persisted, with minimal recovery in residential construction, adversely affecting LLDPE applications in the construction sector. The UK market experienced notable fluctuations, with LLDPE Film Butene-based grade FD Surrey recorded at USD 1528/MT by December. Market sentiment remained fragile as the quarter concluded, shaped by ongoing geopolitical challenges and a milder-than-usual winter, which reduced energy demand and contributed to the overall market downturn.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in the MEA region exhibited mixed trends, initially supported by stable pricing due to rising crude oil costs and geopolitical tensions, including disruptions in key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. However, as the quarter advanced, prices softened, driven by declining feedstock Ethylene costs and moderate demand from key downstream sectors such as packaging and construction. While domestic and Asian export markets provided consistent demand, it was insufficient to spark a robust recovery, with economic challenges and regional instability further dampening market sentiment. Competitive offers from U.S. suppliers added additional pressure, limiting the MEA market's ability to capitalize on its export potential. In Saudi Arabia, lengthened supplies and reduced production costs, supported by softer Ethylene prices, temporarily stabilized prices but could not offset the broader bearish market trends. By the year’s end, seasonal destocking and cautious purchasing behavior among buyers, coupled with weak overseas demand, kept the market subdued. LLDPE prices in Saudi Arabia mirrored the regional trajectory, with LLDPE Film grade FOB Al Jubail quoted at USD 955/MT by December, reflecting the persistent challenges of oversupply, geopolitical uncertainties, and muted demand across the MEA region.
South America
In Q4 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in South America experienced a significant downturn, primarily driven by declining demand from key industries such as packaging, construction, and automotive. The availability of cheaper imported materials, especially from North America, combined with ample regional supply, pressured traders to reduce prices to maintain competitiveness. Brazil was particularly impacted, with moderate demand failing to stimulate market recovery. Logistical challenges intensified following the October 22 strike of approximately 60,000 Brazilian port workers, which disrupted vessel operations and reduced port productivity, worsening already fragile market conditions. This strike compounded the cautious sentiment, as weak consumption hindered any meaningful growth in demand throughout November. By December, year-end destocking further limited activity, while slow recoveries in the construction and automotive sectors restrained hopes for a more pronounced rebound. LLDPE Film Grade CFR Santos prices in Brazil were recorded at USD 1150/MT by the end of the quarter, reflecting the persistent challenges of oversupply, logistical disruptions, and subdued demand that continued to weigh on the South American LLDPE market.
