For the Quarter Ending December 2022
The US Lopinavir market commenced the 4th quarter of 2022 on a negative note. However, prices began to rise in mid-H1 before falling back in the last weeks of the quarter. Several reasons, including the inconsistent supply of inventories in the domestic market and irregular demand from the end-user pharmaceutical sector, are therefore to blame for the fluctuation in price trends. The market for Lopinavir was also impacted by turbulences in logistical activities, piled-up cargo at the port, and zero-Covid rules in China, the main exporting country. As a result, the CFR New York Lopinavir prices were estimated to be USD 411000/MT in December 2022.
Lopinavir's pricing trend in the Asia Pacific market showed an erratic trajectory in the fourth quarter of 2022. Market sentiment was pessimistic when it started in October but improved in November, with prices settling at USD 394500/MT. In the first half of Q4, there was much uncertainty over the market's supply, mostly because production activities were suspended owing to the Golden Week vacation and Covid-19 limitations. These elements contributed to an increase in Lopinavir prices in November. In the latter weeks of the quarter, the increasing trend started to weaken, and prices eventually reached USD 382350/MT. Even after the relaxation in China's zero-COVID policy at the beginning of December, the demand for Lopinavir did not improve throughout the month ahead of the year-end season.
Lopinavir pricing in Q4 of 2022 followed the pattern of the Asia-Pacific region. Lopinavir prices first dropped by 1.3% in October before sharply rising by 4.2% in November and settling at USD 429370/MT. The market sentiments for Lopinavir in the German domestic market were subdued in October due to a paucity of inquiries from the downstream pharmaceutical industry. However, the increase in Lopinavir pricing in the middle of the quarter was caused by a lack of supply from Asian nations amid Covid restrictions. In addition, growing economic worries and Europe's high inflation rate affect the product's overall price. However, due to declining consumer spending in the German domestic market towards the end of Q4, the dynamics of the Lopinavir market were once more restrained, with prices assessed at USD 416810/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
The North American market for Lopinavir API displayed an upward trend throughout the third quarter of 2022, with CFR New York prices settling at USD 391000/MT in July and then increasing even further to USD 411700/MT in September. However, the price value of Lopinavir API rose considerably, backed by healthy demand from end-user pharmaceutical sectors in the United States. Furthermore, in terms of supply, domestic merchants were left with limited inventories to cater to the overall order. Lopinavir, a significant pharmaceutical API import, got severely affected by the exporting countries, including China and India, because of zero covid policies imposed in the Chinese market and the shutdown of factories for maintenance.
The Lopinavir API market showcased an overall increasing pricing trend in the Asia-Pacific region during the third quarter of 2022. In the Chinese market, the prices dropped considerably with the onset of Q3 owing to enough inventories with the local vendor amidst slow offtakes from downstream producers. However, the demand in the mid of Q3 went on the higher side with lower stocks. Some production activities decreased owing to worsened weather conditions, supporting the suppliers to increase their rates to gain profits. Therefore, the Lopinavir API market dynamics got stable over the end of Q3 in China, with FOB Shanghai prices settling at USD 390000/MT.
The Lopinavir API market has witnessed mixed sentiments in its prices in the European region during the third quarter of 2022 due to the fluctuating downstream demand from various pharmaceutical industries. At the onset of Q3, the prices for Lopinavir API went down significantly owing to weaker demand and slow offtakes. Further, towards the end of the first half of Q3, the prices increased due to favorable market sentiments on the back of persistent demand from downstream industries. The local market also faced a shortage of inventories due to a long break in the supply chain from Asian nations, notably China. Therefore, CFR Hamburg prices of Lopinavir API in Germany shifted from USD 399740/MT to USD 417540/MT from July to September 2022.
In the North American region, Lopinavir prices showed stable behavior. The cost of Lopinavir remained consistent since there was a balance between the supply and demand sides of the market. Due to rigorous restrictions in exporting nations brought on by the pandemic's restart, prices slightly climbed at the start of Q2 2022, putting expenses on the higher side despite weak downstream demand from the pharmaceutical business. When import and export activities resumed at the beginning of May, the market began to feel more at ease due to an active trading market. Prices remained on the low side due to sluggish pharmaceutical market sentiment. The CFR New York prices for Lopinavir in the USA were fixed at USD 490000/tonne in June 2022.
With declining demand from the pharmaceutical industry, geopolitical conflicts and other logistics challenges led to a drastic decrease in the Lopinavir market in the Asia-Pacific region in the second quarter of 2022. The market pricing for Lopinavir was impacted by the increasing COVID-19 prevalence in China, which had lockdown implications. The Shanghai shutdown at the end of March also disrupted the supply chain, but the price change was noticeable on the downward side because there were ample stocks. With the ripple effect of the declined downstream pharmaceutical industry demand, the prices for Lopinavir settled at INR 29200000/tonne Ex-Ahmedabad at the end of Q2.
The price of Lopinavir displayed an increasing pricing trend in the second quarter of 2022 as demand for Lopinavir surged in the downstream pharmaceutical sector. With lockdowns being implemented in exporting nations and rising operating costs, the price of Lopinavir surged on the European market throughout Q2 2022. The pandemic situation and the zero-Covid policies led to a gradual inclination of the lopinavir pricing on the higher side with the beginning of the second half of Q2 2022. At the end of Q2 2022, the CFR Hamburg costs for Lopinavir for USP grade in Germany were reported to be USD 538100/ton.