For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) Prices in North America
- In United States, LSHS Price Index remained stable in Q4 2025, supported by 2.0% industrial production growth in December 2025.
- LSHS production costs faced upward pressure from a 3.0% year-over-year PPI increase in November 2025.
- Rising general price levels, indicated by 2.7% CPI increase in December 2025, also contributed to LSHS cost pressures.
- Demand for LSHS strengthened in Q4 2025, driven by robust maritime freight and industrial manufacturing momentum.
- The LSHS demand outlook was bolstered by a 3.3% year-over-year increase in retail sales in November 2025.
- Residual fuel oil inventories in US Gulf Coast remained tight in the second half of 2025, supporting LSHS prices.
- Brent crude oil prices declined in Q4 2025, easing a key production cost component for Low Sulphur Heavy Stock.
- The LSHS price outlook was shaped by the balance of Q4 2025 demand and feedstock cost trends.
Why did the price of Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) change in December 2025 in North America?
- Strong industrial production, up 2.0% year-over-year in December 2025, bolstered LSHS demand.
- Rising producer input costs, indicated by a 3.0% PPI increase in November 2025, impacted LSHS production.
- Declining Brent crude prices in Q4 2025 eased LSHS feedstock costs.
Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) Prices in APAC
- In China, the Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by easing crude oil prices in November 2025.
- LSHS production costs declined in Q4 2025, supported by a 1.9% fall in producer prices in December 2025.
- LSHS demand strengthened in Q4 2025, driven by a 5.2% rise in industrial production in December 2025.
- The Manufacturing Index expanded in December 2025, indicating increased industrial activity and LSHS consumption.
- China's crude oil inventories built in December 2025, contributing to a well-supplied market and downward price pressure.
- Bunker fuel sales in China surged in December 2025, boosting marine fuel demand for LSHS.
- Weak consumer demand, with retail sales up 0.9% in December 2025, indirectly impacted LSHS consumption.
- Subdued consumer confidence, with 0.8% CPI and 5.1% unemployment in December 2025, affected LSHS demand.
- Tight export quotas for Chinese refiners in December 2025 impacted low-sulfur fuel oil output, affecting supply.
- The assessed price of Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) for Q4 was at 59250 INR/MT.
Why did the price of Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Easing benchmark crude oil prices in November 2025 reduced feedstock costs for LSHS.
- China's crude oil inventories reached record highs in December 2025, indicating ample supply.
- Strong industrial production, up 5.2% in December 2025, supported LSHS demand.
Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) Price Index remained stable quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by balanced market dynamics.
- LSHS production costs increased during Q4 2025, driven by higher refinery input costs in October and elevated natural gas prices.
- Demand for LSHS faced headwinds in December 2025, as the Producer Price Index declined by -2.5% year-over-year.
- Industrial production in Germany grew 0.8% in October 2025, providing some support for LSHS demand.
- Global observed oil inventories surged to four-year highs in October 2025, contributing to ample LSHS supply.
- Consumer confidence declined by -12.0% in December 2025, indicating subdued economic sentiment.
- A low unemployment rate of 3.8% in November 2025 indirectly supported overall energy consumption.
- The LSHS price outlook for the near term reflected the Q4 2025 balance of high inventories and rising production costs.
Why did the price of Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) change in December 2025 in Europe?
- High global oil inventories surged in October 2025, increasing overall supply availability in Q4 2025.
- Producer Price Index declined by -2.5% in December 2025, indicating weak industrial demand for LSHS.
- Refinery input costs notably increased in October 2025, raising LSHS production expenses in Q4 2025.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In United States, the Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by tight supply.
- LSHS production costs increased, reflecting a 2.6% year-over-year rise in PPI in August 2025 for producers.
- Demand for LSHS was subdued due to a marginal 0.1% year-over-year increase in industrial production in September 2025.
- US Gulf Coast residual fuel oil inventories plummeted to a multi-decade low in July 2025, indicating significant supply constraints.
- Regional heavy feedstock supply tightened in Q3 2025, impacted by halted imports and Canadian crude diversion.
- US Gulf Coast fuel oil imports declined in the first seven months of 2025, further limiting market availability.
- Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, indirectly suggesting a bearish outlook for industrial LSHS demand.
- The LSHS Price Index forecast suggests continued upward pressure due to persistent supply challenges and elevated refinery margins.
Why did the price of Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) change in September 2025 in North America?
- US Gulf Coast residual fuel oil inventories plummeted to a multi-decade low in July 2025.
- Regional supply of heavy feedstocks tightened in Q3 2025, restricting LSHS production.
- US Gulf Coast fuel oil imports declined in the first seven months of 2025, reducing market availability.
APAC
- In China, the Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by contracting manufacturing activity.
- The LSHS price forecast suggests stability to slight downward pressure due to persistent inventory builds.
- LSHS production costs were stable in Q3 2025, influenced by stable crude oil prices and OPEC+ production.
- Demand for LSHS showed mixed signals; industrial production grew 6.5% YoY in September 2025, yet Manufacturing Index contracted.
- Global oil demand growth was revised higher in Q3 2025, significantly driven by China, supporting LSHS consumption.
- Global observed oil inventories rose in August 2025, reaching a four-year high, indicating an oversupplied market.
- Chinese seaborne crude oil imports strengthened in Q3 2025, with increased stockpiling activity.
- Consumer confidence registered 89.6 in September 2025, reflecting pessimism that could dampen overall economic activity.
Why did the price of Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Negative CPI (-0.3% YoY) and PPI (-2.3% YoY) in September 2025 indicated weak industrial demand.
- The Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025, reducing industrial activity and LSHS demand.
- Rising global oil inventories, reaching a four-year high in August 2025, contributed to market oversupply.
Europe
- In Germany, the Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to contracting industrial activity.
- LSHS production costs faced downward pressure from a 1.7% PPI decline in September 2025, reflecting lower energy.
- The LSHS demand outlook was bearish in Q3 2025, with the Manufacturing Index contracting and industrial production declining.
- Global oil inventories continued building in July 2025, contributing to ample supply for LSHS.
- Crude oil prices remained stable throughout Q3 2025, influencing LSHS feedstock costs.
- Refinery margins for petroleum products increased in Q3 2025, impacting LSHS production economics.
- Freight transport activity strengthened in Q3 2025, offering indirect support for LSHS demand.
- Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% in September 2025, indicating higher operational costs for LSHS consuming industries.
- Global oil supply surged in September 2025, driven by increased OPEC+ production, increasing market availability.
Why did the price of Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Industrial production declined by 1.0% in September 2025, reducing LSHS demand from manufacturing.
- Producer Price Index fell 1.7% in September 2025, indicating lower energy and feedstock costs.
- Global oil supply surged in September 2025, alongside inventory builds, increasing market availability.
