For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, the M-Cresol Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by increased production costs and tightening feedstock.
• M-Cresol production costs increased in Q3 2025, influenced by rising crude oil, naphtha values, and higher input costs.
• Industrial production grew minimally at 0.1% in September 2025, dampening M-Cresol demand in industrial applications.
• Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, with 4.3% unemployment, reducing M-Cresol demand.
• Retail sales increased 5.42% in September 2025, offering support for M-Cresol demand in consumer-driven end-uses.
• Toluene supply tightened in Q3 2025 due to refinery constraints, strong gasoline blending demand, and lean inventories.
• Proposed US tariffs of 25% on imports from Japan and South Korea, effective August 1, 2025, influenced aromatics trade.
• The M-Cresol Price Index reflected upward pressure in Q3 2025, with continued firmness indicated by supply and cost trends.
Why did the price of M-Cresol change in September 2025 in North America?
• Production costs rose from stronger crude oil and naphtha values in Q3 2025.
• Toluene supply tightened due to refinery constraints and increased gasoline blending.
• Consumer confidence declined, and industrial production growth remained minimal.
APAC
• In China, the M-Cresol Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by declining producer prices and contracting manufacturing.
• M-Cresol production costs were influenced by the Producer Price Index declining -3.6% in July and -2.9% in August 2025.
• Demand for M-Cresol was subdued as the Manufacturing Index contracted in July and August 2025, indicating reduced manufacturing.
• Industrial production expanded 5.7% in July and 5.2% in August 2025, yet chemical demand remained subdued.
• The M-Cresol price forecast suggests continued downward pressure from global overcapacity and expanding production.
• Petrochemical feedstocks, including benzene, held steady in early Q3 2025, impacting M-Cresol production costs.
• Inventory pressure for MDI and TDI built in China's domestic market in September 2025, reflecting broader market oversupply.
• Retail sales grew 3.7% in July and 3.4% in August 2025, indirectly supporting demand for M-Cresol derivatives.
Why did the price of M-Cresol change in September 2025 in APAC?
• The Producer Price Index declined -2.9% in August 2025, indicating lower raw material costs for M-Cresol.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in August 2025, signaling reduced industrial activity and chemical demand.
• Global overcapacity and expanding chemical capacity in China contributed to market supply pressure.
Europe
• In Germany, the M-Cresol Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by contracting industrial activity and subdued chemical demand.
• M-Cresol production costs were influenced by easing European spot natural gas prices and declining toluene feedstock costs.
• The M-Cresol demand outlook was bearish due to Germany's industrial production declining 1.0% and subdued European chemical demand.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, indicating a slowdown in the broader German manufacturing sector.
• Retail sales rose 0.2% in September 2025, and unemployment was stable at 6.3%, offering mild support for consumer-facing applications.
• Producer prices decreased 1.7% in September 2025 due to lower energy, while CPI rose 2.4%, indicating mixed cost pressures.
• Global crude oil inventories remained tight in Q3 2025, with increased European toluene import volumes from Asia.
• The M-Cresol Price Index is expected to remain stable to slightly decline, reflecting persistent weak demand and some cost relief.
Why did the price of M-Cresol change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Industrial production in Germany declined 1.0% in September 2025, reducing M-Cresol demand.
• Producer prices decreased 1.7% in September 2025, driven by lower energy costs for M-Cresol production.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, signaling weaker overall demand for chemical intermediates.
