For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Q2 2025 Maize Spot Price in North America displayed a generally downward trajectory, with an average Quarter over Quarter price fluctuation of approximately -3.52%, reflecting a mix of price declines and modest recovery by July 2025.
• April started with a downward trend as maize prices corrected from prior gains due to tightening supplies, but strong export demand maintained some upward pressure on pricing. USDA lowered ending stocks forecasts to 1.465 billion bushels, intensifying supply concerns.
• In May, the absence of Chinese imports created inventory surpluses that pressured FOB maize prices downward despite no disruption in production or logistics, accompanied by steady demand from feed and food sectors but a weaker ethanol segment.
• June's prices declined further as favorable weather improved yield prospects, increasing supply expectations. Elevated inventories and redirected exports to alternative international markets at discounted prices further contributed to the downward price adjustment.
• June 2025 saw efficient logistics and stable demand from animal feed, ethanol, and glucose production sectors, although demand levels were insufficient to absorb increasing inventory stocks.
• Maize Export demand outlook remained robust but was increasingly diversified beyond traditional buyers like China due to policy shifts, sustaining firm underlying market conditions amid inventory pressures.
• Domestic feed consumption was stable, supported by steady livestock production, while industrial use contributed consistently to demand without significant seasonal fluctuations.
• Investor participation in corn futures increased in April, reflecting market sensitivity to supply-demand balance and export policy developments.
• U.S. export ports functioned efficiently throughout the quarter, with no reported bottlenecks or delays that might have impacted maize supply or pricing negatively.
• Overall, the Maize Production Cost Trend remained influenced by acreage reduction and yield variances, while the Maize Demand Outlook suggests a steady but cautious procurement approach amid supply surpluses and diverse export opportunities.
APAC
• APAC maize prices trended upward in Q2 2025, with average Quarter over Quarter growth of approximately +2.7%, driven mainly by China’s domestic market dynamics and sustained demand pressures.
• In April, China’s maize export prices increased due to government stockpiling, limited milling capacity, and port congestion, all contributing to supply constraints that elevated prices.
• The Maize demand outlook was strong in April with expansion in the livestock feed sector and increased export interest from Southeast Asia and the Middle East, supported by rising biofuel production expectations.
• May experienced continued tight supply as the U.S. export suspension to China pushed import reliance onto secondary suppliers, keeping inventory levels low and prices firm despite smooth logistics.
• The steady demand from food processing, industrial applications, and feedstock sectors in May prevented any price softening, while buyers avoided speculative purchases.
• June saw no significant new crop arrivals due to the inter-harvest period, maintaining tight inventories and upward price pressure despite efficient logistics operations.
• Consistent downstream consumption in animal feed, brewing, starch processing, and bioplastics manufacturing sustained the firm demand environment throughout June.
• Maize Production Cost Trends in APAC were impacted by energy price fluctuations and supply chain challenges, justifying the firm price structure across the quarter.
• The Maize Demand Outlook remains positive, with expectations of steady Q3 production and no significant inventory replenishment, reinforcing persistent tight market conditions.
• Overall, the market fundamentals in APAC reflected supply constraints coupled with recovering demand, contributing to a bullish price forecast through the quarter.
Europe
• Europe’s maize market in Q2 demonstrated a relatively stable price trajectory with an average Quarter over Quarter fluctuation around -0.3%, showing mild volatility and modest price corrections.
• In April, France’s maize supply was impacted by regional soil moisture variability and elevated input costs, resulting in tighter availability and modest price strength.
• Demand pressures in April from livestock feed and starch production sectors increased maize utilization, while export demand from North Africa and Southern Europe added further upward support.
• May saw downward price momentum influenced by the arrival of international harvest volumes from Brazil and Argentina, enabling French suppliers to liquidate stocks strategically before new domestic harvests.
• The export environment remained efficient and logistics seamless, facilitating prompt shipments via Marseille port during May, which helped sustain supply-demand balance despite lower prices.
• Downstream sectors maintained steady procurement in May from food, feed, ethanol, and amino acid manufacturers, but persistent oversupply prevented significant price gains.
• June prices stabilized with expected seasonal supply levels and comfortable inventory balances at suppliers and exporters, contributing to a steady market without sharp price moves.
• Demand in June remained consistent across starch, glucose, animal feedstock, brewing, and food-grade maize applications without any unusual seasonal or speculative buying activity.
• Maize Production Cost Trends were under pressure from inflationary input costs, but the lack of supply shortages helped moderate price increases in the region.
• The Maize Demand Outlook in Europe points to stable usage across all major downstream sectors, with balanced supply-demand dynamics anticipated into Q3 2025.
MEA
• MEA’s maize market exhibited a stable to slightly downward price trend in Q2 2025, with an average Quarter over Quarter price fluctuation near -0.7%, influenced by variable supply conditions and steady demand.
• April faced supply chain inefficiencies including power outages and port constraints, which elevated domestic and FOB prices despite favorable production forecasts.
• Strong export demand from Middle East and Southeast Asian importers amid geopolitical uncertainties supported bullish price undertones in April.
• In May, early harvest inflows eased inventory tightness, prompting exporters to lower prices moderately to stimulate demand while maintaining smooth logistics and market access.
• Demand in May remained steady but cautious across feedstock, food, and industrial sectors, with no significant consumption surges or supply disruptions.
• June saw increasing supply pressure from fresh harvest arrivals, resulting in inventory accumulation and downward price adjustments as exporters discounted stocks to encourage export sales.
• The logistics framework during June remained efficient, facilitating seamless movement of maize and avoiding bottlenecks despite growing supplier inventories.
• Demand in June continued to be stable from animal feed, ethanol, glucose processors, and other industrial users, with no seasonal or speculative buying spikes noted.
• Maize Production Cost Trend was affected by operational disruptions in April but improved harvesting efficiency later in the quarter supported steady availability.
• The Maize Demand Outlook remains balanced in MEA, with consistent downstream procurement and no major price-upsetting supply or demand events anticipated in the near term.
South America
• South America’s maize prices followed a downward trend in Q2 2025, with an average Quarter over Quarter decline of approximately -5.15%, driven by increased harvest volumes and ample inventories.
• April prices reflected upward pressure from improving export incentives, competitive exchange rates, and strong global demand, particularly for feed and biofuel production.
• Demand strengthened domestically and internationally in April, with livestock and industrial sectors underpinning robust maize consumption.
• May marked the start of the harvest season, with fresh crop arrivals easing supply tightness and inducing significant downward price corrections.
• Exporters carried ample inventories and engaged in price reductions to manage stock levels, supported by uninterrupted logistical flow through key ports.
• Demand remained steady in May, with no exceptional procurement spikes observed, as buyers adopted a cautious stance amid rising available supply.
• June experienced pronounced supply pressure from above-expected yields, leading to surplus stocks and aggressive discounting by exporters to expedite clearance.
• The smooth operation of internal logistics and port handling in June sustained market accessibility, but the focus was on inventory liquidation rather than price support.
• Demand across downstream sectors was stable but lacked the strength to absorb surplus volumes, reinforcing downward price momentum.
• The Maize Production Cost Trend faced upward cost pressures from inputs, but high output and export competitiveness shaped the overall bearish Maize Price Forecast for Q2 2025.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the Maize market experienced notable fluctuations, with prices rising sharply in January and February before declining in March. January saw a significant increase due to adverse weather in South America, particularly during the planting stages, which reduced crop yields. Coupled with the USDA’s downward revision of U.S. production estimates, this created supply concerns, driving up both domestic and international prices. The weaker U.S. dollar also boosted Maize exports, particularly to China and Mexico, further supporting the upward price trend.
In February, prices continued to rise as strong global demand, particularly from Japan, Mexico, and South Korea, maintained upward pressure. U.S. Maize exports grew significantly, with weekly sales increasing by 12%, supported by tight supply conditions in South America. Rising production costs for seeds and fertilizers also contributed to higher export prices, while growing demand from Asia’s livestock sectors further reinforced price strength.
However, by March 2025, Maize prices saw a sharp decline. Improved weather conditions in key producing countries like Brazil and Argentina alleviated supply concerns, leading to price stabilization. Additionally, slower demand from major buyers, combined with easing freight rates, contributed to the correction in prices, marking a notable shift after two months of steady increases.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2025, China's Maize market experienced significant price fluctuations driven by domestic and global factors. January began with a decline in Maize prices due to a record domestic harvest and high stockpiles. The Ministry of Agriculture raised its Maize output forecast, while a reduction in import estimates by 4 million metric tons further contributed to the price drop. Weaker demand from the livestock and food sectors added to the downward pressure, as did government efforts to boost self-sufficiency in Maize production.
However, in February, Maize prices rebounded as demand from the recovering livestock sector, particularly the swine industry, increased. Global supply constraints, including reduced Brazilian exports, played a key role in driving prices up. The USDA also revised its import projections downward, signaling tighter global supply. Despite the Lunar New Year break and limited inventories, the market saw price support from higher consumption in key industries.
In March, prices decreased sharply due to favorable weather conditions and improved harvest forecasts. A post-Lunar New Year supply glut and subdued demand from the feed and food sectors weighed on prices. Overall, Q1 2025 demonstrated a volatile market with fluctuating supply and demand dynamics, and this volatility is expected to persist into Q2 2025.
Europe
The French Maize market experienced a sustained upward price trend throughout Q1 2025, driven by persistent global supply constraints, strong demand, and rising production costs. In January, prices climbed as adverse weather in Argentina and Brazil, coupled with reduced U.S. stock estimates, tightened global availability. Although France revised its 2024/25 Maize production upward by 17%, export forecasts were slightly reduced to manage supply strategically.
Manufacturing sector activity, while still in recession, showed mild improvement, indirectly supporting maize exports. In February, the bullish momentum intensified as rising input costs led to reduced Maize acreage in France, further limiting domestic supply. At the same time, strong demand from the livestock, feed, and bioethanol sectors, along with growing international interest due to disruptions in South American exports, continued to put upward pressure on prices.
Geopolitical tensions and logistical bottlenecks compounded market volatility. Although March-specific data is not provided, prevailing trends suggest that prices remained elevated, supported by tight supply and firm demand. Overall, Q1 2025 was characterized by heightened volatility and strong market fundamentals favoring price increases. Looking ahead, unless there are significant improvements in global production or a resolution of geopolitical uncertainties, the French Maize market is expected to maintain a firm tone moving into Q2 2025.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The U.S. maize market experienced contrasting trends during Q4 2024, starting with a price surge driven by tight supplies and robust demand but ending on a subdued note due to global competition and weak export demand.
Early in the quarter, unfavorable weather conditions in key states like Iowa and Illinois reduced yields and delayed harvests, while rising production costs, including fertilizer and logistics expenses, further tightened supplies. Strong domestic and overseas demand from livestock feed and ethanol sectors, along with heightened global demand from importers like China and Mexico, pushed prices higher. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region redirected trade flows toward U.S. maize, amplifying export competitiveness amid a weaker U.S. dollar.
By December, however, the market faced headwinds. Increased competition from Brazil and Argentina, offering competitively priced maize due to favorable growing conditions, undermined U.S. export demand. High domestic stocks, coupled with sluggish global consumption driven by inflationary pressures and high interest rates, further pressured prices. Logistical challenges, including port congestion and labor disputes, eased but left residual inefficiencies. Weak demand from key markets in Asia and Africa, alongside ample global production forecasts, diminished price momentum. As a result, U.S. maize prices declined by the end of the quarter, with market conditions favoring global competitors.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 2024, maize (corn) prices in the APAC region, particularly in China, exhibited a notable downtrend due to a combination of oversupply, weak demand, and economic factors. China’s record corn harvest, estimated at approximately 293 million metric tons, significantly increased supply, while demand remained subdued. The hog farming sector, a major consumer of corn, faced profitability challenges, further reducing feed demand. Moreover, Manufacturers in China focused on inventory optimization strategies as the NBS Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.3 in October, indicating moderate economic improvement but emphasizing cost-cutting measures. Broader market trends, including the FAO Cereal Price Index decline, reflected global downward pressure on maize prices. Favorable weather in South America, weaker Ukrainian exports, and seasonal U.S. harvest pressures also contributed to the price drop. Additionally, oversupply issues were exacerbated by surpluses of lower-grade corn affected by weather-related quality concerns, despite reduced production estimates. The ethanol and poultry sectors also saw weaker demand, adding to the persistent softness in trading performance. Overall, the Chinese maize market experienced a bearish trajectory, characterized by lower input costs, falling selling prices, and weak downstream uptake.
Europe
In Q4 2024, maize prices in Europe, particularly Ukrainian corn, exhibited a volatile trend shaped by supply-demand challenges. October saw rising prices as Ukraine's corn production plummeted to 22.9–27 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season, a sharp decline from the previous year's 31.5 million metric tons. This drop resulted from unfavorable weather, including record-high temperatures and inadequate rainfall, alongside persistent logistical challenges from damaged infrastructure and congested export routes. Elevated input costs and strong global demand, particularly from Europe and North Africa, further tightened the market. In November, Ukrainian corn prices declined as farmers withheld sales due to financial support through preferential loans and cost-effective farming technologies. Increased competition from U.S. and Brazilian corn, coupled with subdued demand from Asia and Africa, weakened Ukrainian corn’s market position. However, December brought a steady rise in export prices at Black Sea ports, driven by a stronger U.S. dollar surging demand from the EU and China, and depreciation of Ukrainian hryvnia against the dollar, benefitting the traders in terms of higher exports. As 2025 approached, tight supplies and robust export demand positioned Ukrainian corn prices for potential upward pressure, signaling a critical juncture for stakeholders.
South America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Brazilian corn prices witnessed an overall upward trend with a modest drop witnessed at the end of 2024. Initially, the increase was driven by the devaluation of the Brazilian Real, which enhanced export competitiveness and boosted foreign demand. Tight domestic supplies, influenced by reduced inventories and transportation challenges, further contributed to price hikes. Additionally, the soybean market's strength diverted planting focus from corn to soybeans, constraining corn production. Exporters prioritized international sales due to favorable currency exchange rates, creating challenges despite strong domestic demand from industries like animal feed and biofuels. The onset of La Niña, with its potential for adverse weather conditions, added uncertainty, prompting global buyers to secure corn supplies early. Overall, Brazilian corn acreage remained stable, with production projected to grow by 3.6% year-over-year, overcoming previous weather setbacks. However, the global corn supply surge, particularly from Argentina, intensified competition in key export markets like Asia and Europe. Reduced holiday season demand and increased global availability pressured Brazilian exporters to adjust their pricing strategies in the end. Despite these challenges, Brazil maintained a competitive position in the international market, underscoring the resilience and adaptability of its corn export sector as December 2024 concludes.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American maize market began the third quarter with a notable downward trend but ended the period on a more positive note. This shift was influenced by various factors, including global demand-supply fluctuations, which kept overall prices on the decline.
From July through August 2024, a pessimistic market outlook contributed to a continued drop in overseas quotations, particularly impacting the feed sectors and downstream food industries. Increased supplies from competing exporters, such as Brazil, combined with stabilization efforts by producers and improvements in weather conditions in previously uncertain regions, further eroded U.S. market dominance. This suggested that the significant U.S. corn acreage from the previous year may have been excessive, reinforcing the overall downward trend. Additionally, a slight decline in ethanol demand—a key consumer of corn—fueled bearish market sentiment. The combination of strong production forecasts, lagging exports, and reduced industrial demand created a challenging environment for maize prices, presenting difficulties for producers while offering opportunities for buyers in the agricultural commodities market.
Overall, the quarter experienced a 6% decline compared to the previous period, highlighting the downward pricing trend. However, by the end of the quarter, the export market generally stabilized, supported by a modest increase in overseas quotations from the feed sector. This uptick in demand allowed suppliers to consistently quote higher prices for new orders, demonstrating the market's capacity to absorb price increases and maintain profit margins.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 2024, Maize (Corn) pricing in the APAC region experienced an overall downtrend, driven by several significant factors. The market saw decreasing prices due to weakened demand from end-user sectors, particularly in the feed industry, leading to surplus stockpiles. Additionally, the anticipation of a favorable harvest season in exporting nations resulted in a drop in corn prices globally which further benfitted the buyers in terms of purchases. Moreover, across the Asia Pacific, within China, the market experienced the most significant price changes. Despite a stable global market, China saw a notable decrease in corn prices at a steady rate when compared to the previous quarter of the same year. Supportingly, there was a steady reluctance among traders to procure the material supported by an appreciation of the Yuan against the dollar kept the prices of commodities on the lower side, providing additional opportunity for downstream buyers to procure the goods at a lower cost which overall supports a downward trajectory until the final weeks of September 2024. However, the market witnessed a steady rise at the beginning of the quarter. Overall, with a steady downward trend, the prices of corn dropped by nearly 0.21 percent from the previous quarter of 2024.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, maize (corn) prices in Europe saw a significant upward trend driven by a combination of supply constraints, increased global demand, and currency fluctuations. Adverse weather conditions and reduced harvest forecasts severely limited regional maize availability, tightening supply and pushing prices higher. Strong global demand, particularly from key importing nations, further exacerbated the price rise. Additionally, uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical tensions contributed to a bullish market sentiment. In France, maize prices experienced the most substantial changes within Europe. Delays in planting due to weather, high production costs, and supply shortages led to pronounced price fluctuations. Although prices initially dropped until mid-quarter, they surged in September, driven by seasonal factors and a strong correlation in pricing trends. Overall, the quarter recorded a 2% price increase compared to the previous period. Ukraine, another major producer, was also impacted by adverse weather conditions, which negatively affected corn yields. Increased input costs for fertilizers and seeds further constrained production. On the demand side, robust global demand for corn, especially for animal feed and biofuels, intensified competition for available supply. Ukrainian corn, priced competitively, attracted heightened interest, especially from livestock producers looking to stockpile feed in anticipation of future shortages. Despite strong demand, Ukraine’s corn exports dropped steadily in July, contributing to market tightness. Farmers’ reluctance to sell at lower prices also restricted supply, adding upward pressure on prices. Overall, maize prices in the region rose by more than 5% by the end of the quarter compared to Q2 2024.
South America
In Q3 2024, Maize (Corn) pricing in the South America Region witnessed a notable uptrend, driven by several key factors. The market was influenced by a combination of increased global demand, supply constraints, and currency fluctuations. These dynamics, along with disruptions in the supply chain, contributed to a surge in corn prices across the region. Similar to that of other producing nations, Brazil, in particular, experienced significant price changes, reflecting the overall bullish trend in the market. The root cause of this was the significant drop in corn production or yield due to weather concerns, which had devastated the previous corn crop, leading to fears of a significant reduction in the ongoing harvest. This decline in supply has led to an impending shortage, causing a rise in prices. The first crop (from the summer corn cycle) and the second crop yield in most of the states have decreased because of adverse weather as a result of El Niño. Additionally, continuous rising demand from certain parts of the APAC region, such as South Korean end-users ahead of future anticipation of supply shortages within the industry, has maintained an optimistic trajectory for market inquiries concerning corn, further supporting this month's higher trade activity. However, with limited availability of the crop, supported by a significant rise in global prices , market transactions have continued to remain uplifted, particularly more costly for the importing regions, creating an imbalance in overall trading sentiments and supply-demand dynamics. Overall, despite a 4% decrease from the previous quarter, the overall trajectory remained positive prevailing bullish sentiment, highlighting a favorable pricing environment characterized by increasing prices and a bullish outlook for the maize market.
FAQ’s
1. 1. What are the current maize prices in North America for Q2 2025?
Maize prices in North America trended downward in Q2 2025, with an average quarter-over-quarter fluctuation of around -3.52%. Prices were influenced by higher inventories, favorable weather improving yield prospects, and redirected exports to alternative markets at discounted rates.
2. 2. Who are the major producers of maize globally?
Key maize-producing regions include the United States, Brazil, Argentina, China, and India. In North America, the U.S. remains the largest producer, supported by advanced agricultural technology and strong export infrastructure.
3. 3. What factors impacted maize prices in Q2 2025?
The price movement was driven by a mix of supply and demand dynamics, including strong export demand early in the quarter, surplus inventories due to reduced Chinese imports, favorable weather boosting crop yields, and price competition from alternative suppliers in global markets.
4. 4. What is the maize demand outlook for Q3 2025?
The outlook remains stable, with consistent demand from livestock feed, ethanol production, and food processing sectors. However, elevated inventories and diversified export destinations could keep prices under pressure unless unexpected supply constraints emerge.
