For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the Maize market experienced notable fluctuations, with prices rising sharply in January and February before declining in March. January saw a significant increase due to adverse weather in South America, particularly during the planting stages, which reduced crop yields. Coupled with the USDA’s downward revision of U.S. production estimates, this created supply concerns, driving up both domestic and international prices. The weaker U.S. dollar also boosted Maize exports, particularly to China and Mexico, further supporting the upward price trend.
In February, prices continued to rise as strong global demand, particularly from Japan, Mexico, and South Korea, maintained upward pressure. U.S. Maize exports grew significantly, with weekly sales increasing by 12%, supported by tight supply conditions in South America. Rising production costs for seeds and fertilizers also contributed to higher export prices, while growing demand from Asia’s livestock sectors further reinforced price strength.
However, by March 2025, Maize prices saw a sharp decline. Improved weather conditions in key producing countries like Brazil and Argentina alleviated supply concerns, leading to price stabilization. Additionally, slower demand from major buyers, combined with easing freight rates, contributed to the correction in prices, marking a notable shift after two months of steady increases.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2025, China's Maize market experienced significant price fluctuations driven by domestic and global factors. January began with a decline in Maize prices due to a record domestic harvest and high stockpiles. The Ministry of Agriculture raised its Maize output forecast, while a reduction in import estimates by 4 million metric tons further contributed to the price drop. Weaker demand from the livestock and food sectors added to the downward pressure, as did government efforts to boost self-sufficiency in Maize production.
However, in February, Maize prices rebounded as demand from the recovering livestock sector, particularly the swine industry, increased. Global supply constraints, including reduced Brazilian exports, played a key role in driving prices up. The USDA also revised its import projections downward, signaling tighter global supply. Despite the Lunar New Year break and limited inventories, the market saw price support from higher consumption in key industries.
In March, prices decreased sharply due to favorable weather conditions and improved harvest forecasts. A post-Lunar New Year supply glut and subdued demand from the feed and food sectors weighed on prices. Overall, Q1 2025 demonstrated a volatile market with fluctuating supply and demand dynamics, and this volatility is expected to persist into Q2 2025.
Europe
The French Maize market experienced a sustained upward price trend throughout Q1 2025, driven by persistent global supply constraints, strong demand, and rising production costs. In January, prices climbed as adverse weather in Argentina and Brazil, coupled with reduced U.S. stock estimates, tightened global availability. Although France revised its 2024/25 Maize production upward by 17%, export forecasts were slightly reduced to manage supply strategically.
Manufacturing sector activity, while still in recession, showed mild improvement, indirectly supporting maize exports. In February, the bullish momentum intensified as rising input costs led to reduced Maize acreage in France, further limiting domestic supply. At the same time, strong demand from the livestock, feed, and bioethanol sectors, along with growing international interest due to disruptions in South American exports, continued to put upward pressure on prices.
Geopolitical tensions and logistical bottlenecks compounded market volatility. Although March-specific data is not provided, prevailing trends suggest that prices remained elevated, supported by tight supply and firm demand. Overall, Q1 2025 was characterized by heightened volatility and strong market fundamentals favoring price increases. Looking ahead, unless there are significant improvements in global production or a resolution of geopolitical uncertainties, the French Maize market is expected to maintain a firm tone moving into Q2 2025.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The U.S. maize market experienced contrasting trends during Q4 2024, starting with a price surge driven by tight supplies and robust demand but ending on a subdued note due to global competition and weak export demand.
Early in the quarter, unfavorable weather conditions in key states like Iowa and Illinois reduced yields and delayed harvests, while rising production costs, including fertilizer and logistics expenses, further tightened supplies. Strong domestic and overseas demand from livestock feed and ethanol sectors, along with heightened global demand from importers like China and Mexico, pushed prices higher. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region redirected trade flows toward U.S. maize, amplifying export competitiveness amid a weaker U.S. dollar.
By December, however, the market faced headwinds. Increased competition from Brazil and Argentina, offering competitively priced maize due to favorable growing conditions, undermined U.S. export demand. High domestic stocks, coupled with sluggish global consumption driven by inflationary pressures and high interest rates, further pressured prices. Logistical challenges, including port congestion and labor disputes, eased but left residual inefficiencies. Weak demand from key markets in Asia and Africa, alongside ample global production forecasts, diminished price momentum. As a result, U.S. maize prices declined by the end of the quarter, with market conditions favoring global competitors.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 2024, maize (corn) prices in the APAC region, particularly in China, exhibited a notable downtrend due to a combination of oversupply, weak demand, and economic factors. China’s record corn harvest, estimated at approximately 293 million metric tons, significantly increased supply, while demand remained subdued. The hog farming sector, a major consumer of corn, faced profitability challenges, further reducing feed demand. Moreover, Manufacturers in China focused on inventory optimization strategies as the NBS Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.3 in October, indicating moderate economic improvement but emphasizing cost-cutting measures. Broader market trends, including the FAO Cereal Price Index decline, reflected global downward pressure on maize prices. Favorable weather in South America, weaker Ukrainian exports, and seasonal U.S. harvest pressures also contributed to the price drop. Additionally, oversupply issues were exacerbated by surpluses of lower-grade corn affected by weather-related quality concerns, despite reduced production estimates. The ethanol and poultry sectors also saw weaker demand, adding to the persistent softness in trading performance. Overall, the Chinese maize market experienced a bearish trajectory, characterized by lower input costs, falling selling prices, and weak downstream uptake.
Europe
In Q4 2024, maize prices in Europe, particularly Ukrainian corn, exhibited a volatile trend shaped by supply-demand challenges. October saw rising prices as Ukraine's corn production plummeted to 22.9–27 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season, a sharp decline from the previous year's 31.5 million metric tons. This drop resulted from unfavorable weather, including record-high temperatures and inadequate rainfall, alongside persistent logistical challenges from damaged infrastructure and congested export routes. Elevated input costs and strong global demand, particularly from Europe and North Africa, further tightened the market. In November, Ukrainian corn prices declined as farmers withheld sales due to financial support through preferential loans and cost-effective farming technologies. Increased competition from U.S. and Brazilian corn, coupled with subdued demand from Asia and Africa, weakened Ukrainian corn’s market position. However, December brought a steady rise in export prices at Black Sea ports, driven by a stronger U.S. dollar surging demand from the EU and China, and depreciation of Ukrainian hryvnia against the dollar, benefitting the traders in terms of higher exports. As 2025 approached, tight supplies and robust export demand positioned Ukrainian corn prices for potential upward pressure, signaling a critical juncture for stakeholders.
South America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Brazilian corn prices witnessed an overall upward trend with a modest drop witnessed at the end of 2024. Initially, the increase was driven by the devaluation of the Brazilian Real, which enhanced export competitiveness and boosted foreign demand. Tight domestic supplies, influenced by reduced inventories and transportation challenges, further contributed to price hikes. Additionally, the soybean market's strength diverted planting focus from corn to soybeans, constraining corn production. Exporters prioritized international sales due to favorable currency exchange rates, creating challenges despite strong domestic demand from industries like animal feed and biofuels. The onset of La Niña, with its potential for adverse weather conditions, added uncertainty, prompting global buyers to secure corn supplies early. Overall, Brazilian corn acreage remained stable, with production projected to grow by 3.6% year-over-year, overcoming previous weather setbacks. However, the global corn supply surge, particularly from Argentina, intensified competition in key export markets like Asia and Europe. Reduced holiday season demand and increased global availability pressured Brazilian exporters to adjust their pricing strategies in the end. Despite these challenges, Brazil maintained a competitive position in the international market, underscoring the resilience and adaptability of its corn export sector as December 2024 concludes.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American maize market began the third quarter with a notable downward trend but ended the period on a more positive note. This shift was influenced by various factors, including global demand-supply fluctuations, which kept overall prices on the decline.
From July through August 2024, a pessimistic market outlook contributed to a continued drop in overseas quotations, particularly impacting the feed sectors and downstream food industries. Increased supplies from competing exporters, such as Brazil, combined with stabilization efforts by producers and improvements in weather conditions in previously uncertain regions, further eroded U.S. market dominance. This suggested that the significant U.S. corn acreage from the previous year may have been excessive, reinforcing the overall downward trend. Additionally, a slight decline in ethanol demand—a key consumer of corn—fueled bearish market sentiment. The combination of strong production forecasts, lagging exports, and reduced industrial demand created a challenging environment for maize prices, presenting difficulties for producers while offering opportunities for buyers in the agricultural commodities market.
Overall, the quarter experienced a 6% decline compared to the previous period, highlighting the downward pricing trend. However, by the end of the quarter, the export market generally stabilized, supported by a modest increase in overseas quotations from the feed sector. This uptick in demand allowed suppliers to consistently quote higher prices for new orders, demonstrating the market's capacity to absorb price increases and maintain profit margins.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 2024, Maize (Corn) pricing in the APAC region experienced an overall downtrend, driven by several significant factors. The market saw decreasing prices due to weakened demand from end-user sectors, particularly in the feed industry, leading to surplus stockpiles. Additionally, the anticipation of a favorable harvest season in exporting nations resulted in a drop in corn prices globally which further benfitted the buyers in terms of purchases. Moreover, across the Asia Pacific, within China, the market experienced the most significant price changes. Despite a stable global market, China saw a notable decrease in corn prices at a steady rate when compared to the previous quarter of the same year. Supportingly, there was a steady reluctance among traders to procure the material supported by an appreciation of the Yuan against the dollar kept the prices of commodities on the lower side, providing additional opportunity for downstream buyers to procure the goods at a lower cost which overall supports a downward trajectory until the final weeks of September 2024. However, the market witnessed a steady rise at the beginning of the quarter. Overall, with a steady downward trend, the prices of corn dropped by nearly 0.21 percent from the previous quarter of 2024.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, maize (corn) prices in Europe saw a significant upward trend driven by a combination of supply constraints, increased global demand, and currency fluctuations. Adverse weather conditions and reduced harvest forecasts severely limited regional maize availability, tightening supply and pushing prices higher. Strong global demand, particularly from key importing nations, further exacerbated the price rise. Additionally, uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical tensions contributed to a bullish market sentiment. In France, maize prices experienced the most substantial changes within Europe. Delays in planting due to weather, high production costs, and supply shortages led to pronounced price fluctuations. Although prices initially dropped until mid-quarter, they surged in September, driven by seasonal factors and a strong correlation in pricing trends. Overall, the quarter recorded a 2% price increase compared to the previous period. Ukraine, another major producer, was also impacted by adverse weather conditions, which negatively affected corn yields. Increased input costs for fertilizers and seeds further constrained production. On the demand side, robust global demand for corn, especially for animal feed and biofuels, intensified competition for available supply. Ukrainian corn, priced competitively, attracted heightened interest, especially from livestock producers looking to stockpile feed in anticipation of future shortages. Despite strong demand, Ukraine’s corn exports dropped steadily in July, contributing to market tightness. Farmers’ reluctance to sell at lower prices also restricted supply, adding upward pressure on prices. Overall, maize prices in the region rose by more than 5% by the end of the quarter compared to Q2 2024.
South America
In Q3 2024, Maize (Corn) pricing in the South America Region witnessed a notable uptrend, driven by several key factors. The market was influenced by a combination of increased global demand, supply constraints, and currency fluctuations. These dynamics, along with disruptions in the supply chain, contributed to a surge in corn prices across the region. Similar to that of other producing nations, Brazil, in particular, experienced significant price changes, reflecting the overall bullish trend in the market. The root cause of this was the significant drop in corn production or yield due to weather concerns, which had devastated the previous corn crop, leading to fears of a significant reduction in the ongoing harvest. This decline in supply has led to an impending shortage, causing a rise in prices. The first crop (from the summer corn cycle) and the second crop yield in most of the states have decreased because of adverse weather as a result of El Niño. Additionally, continuous rising demand from certain parts of the APAC region, such as South Korean end-users ahead of future anticipation of supply shortages within the industry, has maintained an optimistic trajectory for market inquiries concerning corn, further supporting this month's higher trade activity. However, with limited availability of the crop, supported by a significant rise in global prices , market transactions have continued to remain uplifted, particularly more costly for the importing regions, creating an imbalance in overall trading sentiments and supply-demand dynamics. Overall, despite a 4% decrease from the previous quarter, the overall trajectory remained positive prevailing bullish sentiment, highlighting a favorable pricing environment characterized by increasing prices and a bullish outlook for the maize market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The North American maize market experienced a general downward trend in the second quarter of 2024, driven by weakened purchasing sentiment due to subdued international demand. This trend was exacerbated by persistent bearish inquiries, currency fluctuations, and trade disruptions.
Starting with the beginning of the second quarter, in April, continuing the trend of past month, pessimistic market outlook, including a persistent drop in regional quotations, particularly from feed sectors and downstream food industries, weakened production focuses within the region, and currency fluctuations. On the demand side, inquiries from end-users breeding industry continue to suppress the rebound in demand for corn feed. Meanwhile, farmers in the Northeast production area remain busy with stable trades of moisture corn, and overall prices in the Northeast production area remain stable. Influenced by the continuous rise in gas temperature, the main players in the grain storage trade in various parts of China show an increased intention to cash out, resulting in a continuous price decline. Additionally, there was a persistent reluctance among traders to procure the material as the Chinese yuan continued to depreciate against the US dollar, thereby making goods more expensive in terms of yuan, which further kept overall procurements for corn on the lower side. Overall, deep processing enterprises have a relatively sufficient corn inventory, and the domestic corn market maintains a strong supply and weak demand situation, resulting in corn market prices continuing to be under pressure and muted.
The increase in grain prices, especially wheat, highlighted the sensitivity of global markets, causing a shift in demand towards corn. This gradual boost in corn purchasing significantly raised its prices. Consequently, stakeholders across the industry closely monitored these developments, adapting their strategies to trade commodities at higher prices throughout May.
Asia Pacific
Maize prices globally show an overall positive trend, with initial increases followed by a slight dip in early Q2 2024. By April, reduced regional demand and increased supply from major producers like the USA and Russia, along with strong exports from other grain-producing countries, led to price declines. China's ample inventories and decreased imports, particularly from the US, further impacted the market. Reluctance in end-user sectors, especially animal feed and ethanol industries, resulted in surplus stocks and weakened trading sentiment. May saw a steady price increase, attributed to higher corn processing volumes in China due to increased downstream industry utilization. This suggested strong maize demand, potentially exacerbating supply-demand imbalances. Rising inventory holding costs for trading companies motivated them to maintain higher prices to protect profit margins. The FAO Food Price Index reached 120.4 points in May 2024, up 0.9% from April, with notable increases in cereals and dairy products. The FAO Cereal Price Index rose 6.3% to 118.7 points. This upward trend continued through the quarter's end. Persistent inventory holding costs for trading companies reinforced their efforts to maintain elevated prices. Additionally, increased acquisition intentions among corn market companies, possibly due to anticipated supply shortages or speculation, further drove prices up as buyers competed for available supplies. Lastly, the breeding industry's recovery has created a profitable environment, encouraging farmers to restock. This is expected to support future corn feed demand recovery, contributing to an optimistic market outlook.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European maize (corn) market experienced diverse pricing trends, with notable variations across countries. France and Ukraine saw persistent price increases, while Spain, an importing nation, witnessed a steady decline towards the end of the quarter. France maintained an optimistic trading outlook throughout Q2, with demand outpacing supply. Corn prices consistently rose due to high demand, limited supplies, the onset of the sowing season, and currency fluctuations. Downstream purchasing activity ranged from moderate to high levels. Strong international demand for animal feed and biofuel production, including from Spain and neighboring regions, boosted French corn export prospects, allowing suppliers to command higher prices. French farmers faced initial rain delays during the maize planting campaign, raising concerns about potential crop switches. However, a subsequent warm, dry spell was expected to facilitate fieldwork, potentially alleviating these worries. Suppliers continued to raise prices, anticipating competition from other major corn-producing regions, particularly Ukraine. This preemptive pricing strategy aimed to position French corn exports favorably. Rising costs of essential inputs like fertilizers and pesticides also prompted French farmers to seek higher prices to maintain profitability. In Ukraine, factors such as increasing competition from other producing nations, heightened global demand, and weather disruptions affecting sowing sentiments and trade outlook kept overall market sentiments bullish throughout the quarter. Spain, as an importing nation, saw corn prices rise until mid-Q2 before steadily declining towards the end of June. In April and May 2024, high demand from end-user feed industries resulted in higher import quotations from the regional market. Unfavorable weather conditions in major corn-producing regions, supply chain disruptions, lingering pandemic effects on agricultural trade, geopolitical tensions, and exchange rate fluctuations drove up costs for Spanish importers. As June began, prices in Spain dropped steadily, contrary to the previous two months' trend. This was primarily due to declining demand for animal feed, a significant corn application, leading to reduced import volumes. Increased use of alternative feed sources contributed to decreased reliance on imported corn, suppressing overall prices and resulting in higher supplies among merchants.
South America
The maize market in Q2 2024 began optimistically, with prices rising until mid-quarter before steadily declining towards the end. In April 2024, the market closely monitored southern Brazil and Argentina, where heavy rainfall and flooding impacted crops, boosting export prices. Argentina, a major corn exporter, faced dwindling supplies, reducing global availability. Demand from various sectors, including ethanol industries, remained high, resulting in consistent overseas inquiries. Vietnam's Commodity Exchange reported a 13.2% increase in global corn prices over two months, indicating a potential supply shortage. Argentina's monthly inflation was expected to fall below 10% in April. The FAO Food Price Index reached 119.1 points in April 2024, up 0.3% from March, with increases in meat, vegetable oil, and cereal indices offsetting decreases in sugar and dairy products. This trend continued until mid-quarter when weakened supplies among traders affected demand. Argentina continued to struggle with adverse weather conditions and disease outbreaks, leading to significant crop yield declines. Erratic rainfall patterns and pest infestations severely hampered corn production, limiting export availability. Persistent demand from parts of the APAC region, particularly South Korean ethanol industry end-users, maintained optimistic market inquiries for corn, supporting higher trade activity. However, as Q2 approached its end, export prices steadily dropped, indicating a more balanced supply-demand outlook.
