For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Menthol Price Index rose by 0.87% quarter-over-quarter, driven by replenishment and winter demand.
• The average Menthol price for the quarter was approximately USD 10836.67/MT, reflecting weighted import and domestic settlements.
• Menthol Spot Price softened in December amid increased import arrivals, placing downward pressure on the Price Index.
• Menthol Price Forecast indicates softening absent a freight rebound or clearer regulatory signals to restore forward buying.
• Menthol Production Cost Trend remained stable as domestic synthetic units experienced steady feedstock and energy costs overall.
• Menthol Demand Outlook shows mixed drivers: pharmaceutical winter uptick offset by cautious tobacco sourcing amid regulatory uncertainty.
• Gulf Coast inventories and greater Asian export competitiveness pressured the Menthol Price Index, encouraging distributor spot selling.
• Domestic producers maintained normal utilisation; import volumes set market tone, supporting Menthol Spot Price volatility moderation currently.
Why did the price of Menthol change in December 2025 in North America?
• Increased Asian export competitiveness and lower freight rates reduced landed costs, prompting discounting of spot import offers.
• Elevated Gulf Coast inventories and import arrivals outpaced offtake, lessening urgency to restock and supporting bearish pricing.
• Buyer caution due to unresolved regulatory menthol ban reduced long-term contracting, seasonal pharmaceutical demand partially offset weakness.
APAC
• In China, the Menthol Price Index rose by 0.88% quarter-over-quarter, supported by steady export demand and low inventories.
• The average Menthol price for the quarter was approximately USD 10690.00/MT, reflecting export-weighted quarterly volumes prevailing.
• Menthol Spot Price eased modestly in December as exporters reduced offers to preserve run-rates and clear inventory.
• Menthol Price Forecast anticipates mild recovery into early 2026 driven by seasonal demand and replenishment buying
• Menthol Production Cost Trend remained stable as feedstock availability and modest phenol price changes limited input cost pressure.
• Menthol Demand Outlook appears subdued near-term owing to softer flavour-house enquiries and cautious confectionery restocking schedules
• Menthol Price Index movements reflected export-driven dynamics, balanced production, and logistical normalisation at major eastern Chinese ports.
• Inventory draws and export allocations influenced offers while large producers maintained throughput to service international contract volumes.
Why did the price of Menthol change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Tight early-quarter export bookings and low bonded-zone stocks sustained buying urgency, underpinning modest upward price pressure.
• In December, rising synthetic output and ample corn-mint oil yields expanded spot availability, prompting exporters to trim offers.
• Normalised port operations and softer overseas enquiries reduced logistical premia, allowing buyers to exert downward pricing pressure.
Europe
• In Germany, the Menthol Price Index recorded a tentative rise of 0.55% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting steady pharmaceutical and flavour-sector demand amid balanced availability.
• The average Menthol price for the quarter was assessed at approximately USD 11,150.00/MT, based on distributor-level transactions and contract renegotiations across Western Europe.
• Menthol Spot Price remained largely range-bound through December as buyers sourced contract volumes while limiting incremental spot exposure.
• The Menthol Price Forecast suggests mild firmness into early 2026, supported by seasonal respiratory formulations and restocking by flavour and OTC manufacturers.
• Menthol Production Cost Trend stayed stable, with synthetic input costs and energy tariffs showing limited volatility during the quarter.
• Menthol Demand Outlook remained cautious but stable, as downstream buyers balanced near-term consumption with inventory optimisation strategies.
• The Menthol Price Index reflected adequate regional inventories, steady imports, and predictable supply flows, preventing sharp price swings.
• Major distributors maintained comfortable stock positions, ensuring supply continuity while moderating upward price momentum.
Why did the price of Menthol change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Completion of most Q4 procurement cycles reduced spot-market urgency, keeping December price movements limited.
• Stable import arrivals and sufficient distributor inventories curtailed any supply-driven price escalation.
• Seasonal demand from pharmaceutical and OTC segments provided baseline support, preventing sharper downside despite cautious buying sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, the Menthol Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by elevated production costs and shrinking inventories.
• Menthol production costs increased in Q3 2025, as the Producer Price Index rose 2.6% year-over-year in August 2025.
• Rising input prices, particularly natural gas, reignited margin pressure for manufacturers during Q3 2025.
• Menthol demand outlook was mixed; retail sales increased 5.42% year-over-year in September 2025, while industrial production only rose 0.1%.
• Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, alongside a 4.3% unemployment rate, moderating discretionary spending.
• Chemical industry inventories shrank in Q3 2025 due to accelerated destocking, tightening overall supply dynamics.
• US chemical exports were projected to fall in 2025, with trade volumes shifting due to reinstated tariffs in Q3 2025.
• The Menthol Price Index is forecast to remain firm, supported by persistent cost pressures and tightening supply in Q3 2025.
Why did the price of Menthol change in September 2025 in North America?
• Consumer Price Index increased 3.0% year-over-year in September 2025, raising overall production expenses.
• Elevated natural gas prices influenced petrochemical feedstock costs, increasing manufacturing burden in Q3 2025.
• Chemical industry inventories contracted in Q3 2025, tightening supply and supporting Menthol prices.
Europe
• In Germany, the Menthol Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by weakening demand and declining production costs.
• Menthol production costs decreased from weakening naphtha feedstock and steady downward European natural gas prices in Q3 2025.
• The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.7% year-over-year in September 2025, lowering Menthol manufacturing expenses.
• Menthol demand was bearish as private consumption in Germany contracted in Q3 2025, impacting consumer product sales.
• Industrial production declined by 1.0% year-over-year in September 2025, reducing Menthol demand in industrial applications.
• The Manufacturing Index was contracting in Q3 2025, signaling a slowdown in overall industrial activity and new orders.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in September 2025, eroding consumer purchasing power for Menthol products.
• Retail sales saw a modest 0.2% increase year-over-year in September 2025, providing limited support for consumer-facing Menthol demand.
Why did the price of Menthol change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Weakening consumer sentiment and contracting private consumption in Q3 2025 reduced demand for Menthol products.
• Declining naphtha feedstock costs and a 1.7% decrease in PPI in September 2025 lowered Menthol production expenses.
• A contracting Manufacturing Index and 1.0% decline in industrial production in September 2025 suppressed industrial Menthol demand.
APAC
• In China, the Menthol Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by deflationary pressures and overcapacity.
• Menthol production costs remained stable or slightly decreased in Q3 2025 due to stable petrochemical feedstock prices.
• Menthol demand outlook was mixed, with cautious consumer sentiment in Q3 2025 despite increased retail sales.
• Global overcapacity in chemical building blocks continued, leading to elevated Menthol inventories throughout Q3 2025.
• China's Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, impacting overall industrial demand for Menthol.
• Industrial production expanded 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, offering some support to Menthol demand.
• Retail sales of consumer goods increased 3.0% year-on-year in September 2025, boosting menthol-containing product demand.
• The Pharmaceuticals sector showed expanding market growth in Q3 2025, positively influencing Menthol demand.
• Consumer confidence remained low at 89.6 in September 2025, contributing to soft domestic demand for Menthol.
Why did the price of Menthol change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Deflationary pressures were evident with CPI falling 0.3% and PPI declining 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025.
• The Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, alongside cautious consumer sentiment in Q3 2025.
• Global overcapacity in chemical building blocks amplified oversupply woes and high inventories in Q3 2025.
