For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, the Menthol Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by elevated production costs and shrinking inventories.
• Menthol production costs increased in Q3 2025, as the Producer Price Index rose 2.6% year-over-year in August 2025.
• Rising input prices, particularly natural gas, reignited margin pressure for manufacturers during Q3 2025.
• Menthol demand outlook was mixed; retail sales increased 5.42% year-over-year in September 2025, while industrial production only rose 0.1%.
• Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, alongside a 4.3% unemployment rate, moderating discretionary spending.
• Chemical industry inventories shrank in Q3 2025 due to accelerated destocking, tightening overall supply dynamics.
• US chemical exports were projected to fall in 2025, with trade volumes shifting due to reinstated tariffs in Q3 2025.
• The Menthol Price Index is forecast to remain firm, supported by persistent cost pressures and tightening supply in Q3 2025.
Why did the price of Menthol change in September 2025 in North America?
• Consumer Price Index increased 3.0% year-over-year in September 2025, raising overall production expenses.
• Elevated natural gas prices influenced petrochemical feedstock costs, increasing manufacturing burden in Q3 2025.
• Chemical industry inventories contracted in Q3 2025, tightening supply and supporting Menthol prices.
Europe
• In Germany, the Menthol Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by weakening demand and declining production costs.
• Menthol production costs decreased from weakening naphtha feedstock and steady downward European natural gas prices in Q3 2025.
• The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.7% year-over-year in September 2025, lowering Menthol manufacturing expenses.
• Menthol demand was bearish as private consumption in Germany contracted in Q3 2025, impacting consumer product sales.
• Industrial production declined by 1.0% year-over-year in September 2025, reducing Menthol demand in industrial applications.
• The Manufacturing Index was contracting in Q3 2025, signaling a slowdown in overall industrial activity and new orders.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in September 2025, eroding consumer purchasing power for Menthol products.
• Retail sales saw a modest 0.2% increase year-over-year in September 2025, providing limited support for consumer-facing Menthol demand.
Why did the price of Menthol change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Weakening consumer sentiment and contracting private consumption in Q3 2025 reduced demand for Menthol products.
• Declining naphtha feedstock costs and a 1.7% decrease in PPI in September 2025 lowered Menthol production expenses.
• A contracting Manufacturing Index and 1.0% decline in industrial production in September 2025 suppressed industrial Menthol demand.
APAC
• In China, the Menthol Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by deflationary pressures and overcapacity.
• Menthol production costs remained stable or slightly decreased in Q3 2025 due to stable petrochemical feedstock prices.
• Menthol demand outlook was mixed, with cautious consumer sentiment in Q3 2025 despite increased retail sales.
• Global overcapacity in chemical building blocks continued, leading to elevated Menthol inventories throughout Q3 2025.
• China's Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, impacting overall industrial demand for Menthol.
• Industrial production expanded 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, offering some support to Menthol demand.
• Retail sales of consumer goods increased 3.0% year-on-year in September 2025, boosting menthol-containing product demand.
• The Pharmaceuticals sector showed expanding market growth in Q3 2025, positively influencing Menthol demand.
• Consumer confidence remained low at 89.6 in September 2025, contributing to soft domestic demand for Menthol.
Why did the price of Menthol change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Deflationary pressures were evident with CPI falling 0.3% and PPI declining 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025.
• The Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, alongside cautious consumer sentiment in Q3 2025.
• Global overcapacity in chemical building blocks amplified oversupply woes and high inventories in Q3 2025.
