Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• The Metakaolin Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3, reflecting subdued demand from construction, concrete admixture, and industrial ceramics sectors.
• The Metakaolin Price Forecast for Q4 2025 suggests a flat-to-soft trend, with limited upside due to cautious restocking and slow recovery in infrastructure and commercial construction projects.
• The Metakaolin Production Cost Trend remained stable, supported by consistent kaolin mining operations, low energy input costs, and efficient calcination processes.
• Weekly movements in the Price Index were neutral to soft, with no major supply disruptions reported during the quarter.
• Domestic consumption was impacted by sluggish infrastructure spending, while export activity remained moderate due to competitive pricing from Asian suppliers.
Why did the price of Metakaolin change in September 2025 in North America?
• Prices decreased due to low offtake from concrete and ceramic manufacturers, despite expectations of seasonal demand improvement.
• Stable feedstock and energy costs ensured a steady supply, while high inventories and cautious procurement behavior kept pressure on prices.
• Buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, anticipating further price corrections amid weak downstream momentum.
APAC
• In China, the Metakaolin Price Index fell by 2.9% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weak demand, ample supply.
• The average Metakaolin price for the quarter was approximately USD 44.33/MT, reflecting abundant supply and weak downstream procurement.
• Metakaolin Spot Price weakened from port congestion and inventory builds, reflected in the Metakaolin Price Index.
• Metakaolin Price Forecast signals upside as Q4 restocking competes with continuing weak domestic construction demand.
• Metakaolin Production Cost Trend showed upward pressure from energy costs, while feedstock kaolin remained available.
• Metakaolin Demand Outlook remains subdued as construction stagnates, with developers focusing on completing existing projects.
• Metakaolin Price Index movements reflected aggressive supplier stock liquidation ahead of audits, pressuring regional offers.
• Export weakness and a stronger yuan reduced competitiveness, limiting overseas demand despite a stable Metakaolin Spot Price.
Why did the price of Metakaolin change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Improved supplier availability and inventory liquidation increased supply, overwhelming subdued construction demand across domestic markets.
• Port congestion and vessel waits caused accumulation, pressuring sellers to discount shipments and clear stock.
• Seasonal monsoon and weak Southeast Asian procurement reduced export orders, reinforcing domestic oversupply, downward momentum.
Europe
• In Germany, the Metakaolin Price Index rose by 6.37% quarter-over-quarter, driven primarily by euro appreciation against the dollar.
• The average Metakaolin price for the quarter was approximately USD 361.67/MT, reflecting FOB Hamburg assessments.
• Metakaolin Spot Price levels remained thinly traded, supporting the Price Index as supplier inventories tightened modestly.
• Metakaolin Price Forecast indicates modest upside into Q4 absent demand recovery, constrained by cautious buyer resistance.
• Metakaolin Production Cost Trend reflected elevated energy and input costs, though output charges eased compared to earlier months.
• Metakaolin Demand Outlook remains weak with construction contraction limiting offtake, civil engineering only partially offsetting declines.
• Export demand weakness and port congestion pressured the Metakaolin Price Index despite domestic production stability.
• Suppliers focused on clearing inventories, selective pricing, and reduced run rates sustained modest upward price momentum.
Why did the price of Metakaolin change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Euro appreciation versus the dollar increased USD-denominated export prices, translating into nominal price gains across European markets.
• Reduced operating rates during the summer lowered output and tightened spot availability, supporting upward pressure on quoted prices.
• Port congestion and rail disruptions at Hamburg delayed shipments, increasing terminal inventories and constraining timely export flows.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Price Index of Metakaolin in North America declined in July 2025 as downstream demand from the cement and construction sectors weakened, particularly in the U.S. and Canada, amidst seasonal project delays and adverse weather conditions in key southern and midwestern states.
• Production rates across domestic Metakaolin facilities remained steady, resulting in an oversupplied market, with suppliers offering competitive rates to clear Q2 inventories ahead of H2 contracting cycles.
• Export appetite from Latin American markets remained weak, as buyers increasingly turned to lower-cost Asian and South American cargoes, which were offered at attractive prices amid softening global demand.
• Competitive pressure from offshore cargoes, particularly Brazilian and Chinese-origin material, led to pricing pressure across the U.S. Gulf and East Coast, with domestic producers forced to revise down offers to retain buyer interest.
• Despite relatively stable feedstock and energy costs, the accumulation of unsold stock from earlier months led to downward negotiations across spot trades, as sellers prioritized volume movement over margin retention.
Why did the price of Metakaolin change in July 2025 in North America?
• The Price Index of Metakaolin in North America declined in July 2025 as downstream demand from the cement and construction sectors weakened, particularly in the U.S. and Canada, amidst seasonal project delays and adverse weather conditions in key southern and midwestern states.
• Production rates across domestic Metakaolin facilities remained steady, resulting in an oversupplied market, with suppliers offering competitive rates to clear Q2 inventories ahead of H2 contracting cycles.
• Export appetite from Latin American markets remained weak, as buyers increasingly turned to lower-cost Asian and South American cargoes, which were offered at attractive CIF prices amid softening global demand.
• Competitive pressure from offshore cargoes, particularly Brazilian and Chinese-origin material, led to pricing pressure across the U.S. Gulf and East Coast, with domestic producers forced to revise down offers to retain buyer interest.
• Despite relatively stable feedstock and energy costs, the accumulation of unsold stock from earlier months led to downward negotiations across spot trades, as sellers prioritized volume movement over margin retention.
Europe
• The Price Index of Metakaolin in Europe rose by 9.2% quarter-on-quarter, supported by firm pricing actions from key German producers such as Dennert Poraver, who implemented mid-quarter hikes amid escalating production costs, aging equipment, and rising labor wages.
• The appreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar throughout Q2 2025 played a critical role in driving up export Price Index values, as unchanged Euro-denominated offers translated into higher USD-based quotations, especially in May and June.
• Supply conditions remained moderately tight across Europe, as most producers deliberately maintained restricted operating rates and cautiously managed output to support the elevated Price Index, leading to tighter spot availability and limited inventory build-up.
• While demand in Germany and France remained subdued, regional demand improvements from Spain and Eastern Europe—especially driven by the cement and construction sectors—lent export support and helped sustain upward movement in the Metakaolin Price Index.
• Despite persistent port congestion and logistical disruptions across Hamburg and broader Northwestern Europe, domestic circulation remained stable, allowing producers to continue offering at firm levels and contributing to a sustained quarter-on-quarter increase in the Price Index across Europe.
Why did the price of Metakaolin change in July 2025 in Europe?
• The Price Index of Metakaolin in Europe declined in July 2025 due to subdued demand from the cement and construction sectors, particularly in Germany and France, amid slowing infrastructure activity and adverse weather conditions.
• Producers in Central and Eastern Europe increased output, resulting in improved regional supply and higher availability of spot cargoes, leading to downward price pressure.
• Export demand weakened as non-European buyers reduced offtakes, especially from North Africa and the Middle East, where cheaper Asian alternatives became more competitive due to favorable freight conditions.
• Competitive imports from Asian markets—particularly China and India—offered at lower CIF values intensified price pressure across Southern and Eastern Europe, prompting domestic sellers to revise offers downward.
• Despite stable production costs, inventory accumulation from June carried into July, prompting sellers to liquidate stocks at discounted prices to maintain cash flow and manage warehouse space.
APAC
• The Price Index of Metakaolin declined in APAC during July 2025 due to persistently weak demand from downstream construction and cement sectors, particularly in China and Southeast Asia, where the monsoon season further curtailed project activity.
• Improved supply availability driven by aggressive inventory liquidation ahead of mid-year financial audits led to oversupply in inland Chinese markets, creating downward pricing pressure across the region.
• Logistical congestion at key Chinese ports like Shanghai and Ningbo continued into July, causing shipment delays, port inventory build-ups, and reduced export efficiency, which further weighed on FOB prices.
• Increased competition from lower-cost regional alternatives, especially domestically produced Metakaolin in Vietnam and India, forced Chinese exporters to lower offers to maintain market share in Southeast Asia.
• Despite moderate energy input costs, reduced export competitiveness due to the appreciating Chinese Yuan added pressure on suppliers to lower FOB prices to attract foreign buyers, further driving down the price index.
Why did the price of Metakaolin change in July 2025 in APAC?
• The Price Index of Metakaolin in Asia declined in July 2025 due to subdued demand from the construction and infrastructure sectors, particularly in China and Southeast Asia, where ongoing monsoon conditions hampered site activity.
• High inventory levels across key producing regions, including inland China, led to oversupply pressures as producers and distributors sought to offload accumulated stock through discounted offers.
• Export demand remained weak, especially from South Asia and the Middle East, as regional buyers deferred fresh bookings amid bearish sentiment and sufficient local availability.
• Competition from Asian cargoes, especially lower-cost Vietnamese and Indian-origin Metakaolin, intensified across regional markets, undercutting Chinese export offers and contributing to downward price adjustments.
• Limited support from raw material and energy costs, which stayed relatively stable, meant producers lacked any cost-push leverage to maintain price levels, reinforcing the softening trend across FOB and CFR markets.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American Metakaolin market experienced a decline during Q1 2025, driven by abundant supply and weak demand from the construction sector. In January, U.S. supply was stable due to strategic inventory management and favorable freight conditions, despite temporary reductions in shipments from China due to the Spring Festival. Demand was sluggish due to seasonal slowdowns, adverse weather, and high borrowing costs, limiting capital expenditure and project financing. However, federal investments in energy and data infrastructure projects provided some demand support, while stockpiling ahead of expected tariffs on Chinese imports offered a temporary boost.
In February, supply remained stable as suppliers capitalized on lower logistics costs, though global oversupply grew as Asian exporters increased production. Despite some positive job growth in the construction sector, demand remained moderate due to slow permitting processes and high interest rates. Public-sector projects helped maintain demand, but private-sector hesitancy limited growth.
By March, supply was still supported by consistent imports and lower freight costs, though overstocking and customs delays extended lead times. Demand remained weak due to issues in residential construction and cautious outlooks in the cement industry, keeping prices subdued.
Europe
The European Metakaolin market saw a decline of approximately 3.3% in Q1 2025. In January, the market remained oversupplied as suppliers continued to offload December 2024 stocks. This kept supplies plentiful across Germany, contributing to a bearish market sentiment. Low demand, particularly in the cement and construction sectors, exacerbated the situation. Reduced production rates and closed trade routes across Europe added to the challenges, while shorter lead times further pressured prices. Despite some upward pressure from rising electricity costs, the market's surplus led to continued price declines. In February, the oversupply persisted, and despite minimal production outages, demand remained weak. The cement industry faced a steep decline in production and consumption, with continued sluggishness in construction activity. Building firms reported low new orders, further reducing the demand for Metakaolin. Supply remained abundant, but logistical bottlenecks and closed arbitrage routes constrained market movement, reinforcing the bearish trend. By March, a drop in energy prices reduced production costs, but the market remained oversupplied due to ample inventory. Despite logistical disruptions, supply remained steady. Demand from the cement and construction sectors continued to decline, with cement dispatches down 9.48% year-on-year, contributing to ongoing bearish pressure on the Metakaolin market.
APAC
The APAC Metakaolin market experienced predominantly bullish conditions in Q1 2025, with prices increasing by approximately 4%. In January, production was limited due to the low availability of Kaolin Clay, especially after mid-January rains in Northern China. Despite this, Chinese suppliers kept prices stable, leading to a subdued market. Demand from the construction sector remained weak, impacted by a significant decline in cement output, falling to a 15-year low. In February, some price increases were reported as suppliers faced inventory depletion. However, the construction sector showed signs of stabilization with a slight improvement in the Construction PMI, indicating better market sentiment despite ongoing challenges. By March, supply constraints persisted due to the continued shortage of Kaolin clay, driving further price hikes. However, cement production showed a slight recovery with a 2.5% year-on-year increase, and cement shipment rates improved. Despite these positive indicators, the construction sector remained cautious, with real estate investment and housing starts continuing to decline, limiting significant upward movement in Metakaolin prices.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
Metakaolin prices remained relatively stable during Q4 2024, despite continued downward pressure from the construction sector's ongoing slowdown. Weak demand persisted throughout the quarter, with declining cement production further exacerbating market challenges. Rising production costs, combined with logistical disruptions such as the strike between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), created significant transportation challenges. These disruptions hindered supply chains and increased logistics expenses, adding to the overall market strain.
Toward the end of the quarter, destocking activities became the dominant trend, as suppliers focused on liquidating inventories. Concerns over inventory devaluation and seasonal market slowdowns prompted bulk sales at reduced prices, particularly in export markets.
While supply conditions improved due to these activities, the broader market fundamentals remained weak. Limited construction activity and subdued demand from downstream industries ensured that the Metakaolin market faced sustained challenges as it approached the year-end, with cautious anticipation of stabilization in the following year.
Europe
The European Metakaolin market experienced a predominantly bearish trend, with prices decreasing by approximately 1.5% during Q4. During the first half of the quarter, production costs rose, prompting producers to pass these increases downstream. However, logistical challenges emerged as modernization programs at key Northwestern European ports disrupted material circulation.
Demand conditions remained weak, particularly in the downstream construction sector, where the cement industry continued its downturn. Toward the end of 2024, destocking activity picked up as buyers reduced inventories ahead of the new year, anticipating softer market conditions due to winter. This destocking contributed to improved supply availability, reinforcing the ongoing bearish market trend.
The market surplus persisted as a significant pressure point, with demand further declining amid the seasonal slowdown. Supply remained ample, supported by limited outages and reduced run rates. While there were no major logistical disruptions, trade across Europe faced constraints due to the closure of key routes, restricting product movement. Inland trading activity remained sluggish, exacerbated by congestion at Northwest European ports.
High yard utilization rates at CTA and CTB terminals in Hamburg, estimated at 75%-80%, caused delays in cargo handling, adding to the market oversupply. With the holiday season and ongoing bearish fundamentals, some producers reduced run rates in an attempt to rebalance supply and demand.
APAC
The APAC Metakaolin market experienced a bullish trend in Q4 2024, with prices rising by approximately 4%, primarily due to higher production rates and limited availability of feedstock kaolin clay. Toward the end of the year, destocking activities intensified in December, as suppliers moved inventories in bulk. Export demand conditions remained weak in key markets, prompting Chinese suppliers to lower quotations, particularly targeting Southeast Asian buyers, with negotiations ranging from Yuan 10/MT to Yuan 25/MT. These efforts were driven by concerns over inventory devaluation and year-end tax implications, while full warehouses added further downward pressure on prices. The US market also faced unfavorable conditions, as fears of strikes and potential customs duty changes discouraged American buyers from placing orders with Chinese suppliers.
Despite a marginal increase in cement production between August and September 2024, Metakaolin consumption remained sluggish, reflecting broader challenges in the construction sector. Operational rates for clinker lines and grinding mills fell significantly year-on-year, with average rates dropping to 47% and 40%, respectively. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang, production cuts between late September and October reduced output by 35%. By November, mixed demand trends emerged as the business activity index for construction fell to 49.7%, signaling contraction, while the new order index stagnated at 43.5%. Although input price pressures eased, with the index dropping to 48%, sales prices and employment indices continued to face challenges, highlighting ongoing difficulties in the sector.
In December, demand from the downstream cement industry weakened further, with national monthly cement output declining 8.4% month-on-month and 2% year-on-year. For 2024, cumulative cement production fell 9.5% year-on-year to 1.825 billion tons, though the rate of decline narrowed slightly toward the end of the year. Shipment rates also dropped, reflecting seasonal factors, colder temperatures, and stricter environmental regulations in northern regions. The national average shipment rate decreased by six percentage points month-on-month and four percentage points compared to the previous year. Despite these headwinds, cautious optimism remains as the business activity expectation index for construction rose slightly to 55.6%, indicating hope for a market rebound as conditions stabilize in the future.
