For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The mLLDPE Spot Price in the U.S. declined in Q2 2025, following a broader softening of the regional Price Index driven by surplus inventory and weaker-than-expected downstream pull.
• The mLLDPE Production Cost Trend remained largely unchanged, despite moderate feedstock cost swings, as producers adopted efficient production and inventory strategies.
• Export momentum softened due to persistent trade headwinds, while domestic demand from premium film, stretch wrap, and hygiene film applications stayed lukewarm.
• The mLLDPE Demand Outlook for early Q3 remains flat, with cautious procurement prevailing amid macroeconomic uncertainty and persistent inventory overhang.
Why did the price of mLLDPE change in July 2025 in North America?
• The mLLDPE Spot Price declined due to high stock levels and underwhelming downstream demand.
• The mLLDPE Production Cost Trend was stable, but weak margins led to discounting by sellers.
• The mLLDPE Demand Outlook remained uncertain, especially in packaging and hygiene films.
• The mLLDPE Price Forecast suggests limited upside without a demand rebound from high-performance film sectors.
Asia-Pacific
• The mLLDPE Price Index in China dropped by 6% in Q2 2025, attributed to ample inflow of low-cost metallocene grades from China and the Middle East.
• The mLLDPE Production Cost Trend stayed mostly steady as logistics and energy costs remained under control, offsetting feedstock fluctuations.
• Demand for mLLDPE in specialty films and multilayer applications stayed soft, with buyers hesitant to restock amid volatile regional trade cues.
• The mLLDPE Demand Outlook remained muted despite marginal recovery signals from China’s consumer packaging and hygiene sectors.
Why did the price of mLLDPE change in July 2025 in Asia?
• In July 2025, the mLLDPE Price in China declined due to oversupply and weak converter demand.
• The mLLDPE Production Cost Trend was steady, supported by lower freight and stable raw material pricing.
• The mLLDPE Demand Outlook stayed subdued due to thin procurement in packaging and stretch film segments.
• The mLLDPE Price Forecast remains cautiously bearish unless firm buying returns from food packaging and healthcare sectors.
Europe
• The mLLDPE Price Index in Europe decreased in Q2 2025, tracking a consistent downturn across conventional and metallocene grades amid oversupply conditions.
• The mLLDPE Production Cost Trend eased on the back of lower feedstock ethylene prices and reduced utility costs, though market fundamentals remained weak.
• End-use consumption for mLLDPE in flexible and performance films was constrained by low spot activity and sluggish orders, especially from retail and construction packaging lines.
• The mLLDPE Demand Outlook remained conservative, further pressured by increased imports from cost-competitive regions such as the U.S. and Turkey.
Why did the price of mLLDPE change in July 2025 in Europe?
• The mLLDPE Price decreased due to excess supply, poor spot market activity, and inventory buildup.
• The mLLDPE Production Cost Trend declined alongside falling upstream costs.
• The mLLDPE Demand Outlook stayed fragile amid weak demand from packaging and technical film sectors.
• The mLLDPE Price Forecast indicates mild bearishness, with pricing stability dependent on inventory correction and recovery in high-performance film demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American mLLDPE market started Q1 2025 on a strong note, fueled by solid demand from the packaging, construction, and automotive sectors. Prices climbed in January and February due to supply limitations caused by severe winter weather that led to unplanned production outages. Ongoing plant maintenance and fears of potential tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada triggered aggressive spot buying, amplifying price momentum during the early part of the quarter.
By March, however, market dynamics began to shift. Demand from key sectors such as construction and automotive slowed, while earlier supply disruptions eased as facilities resumed normal operations. Additionally, a drop in feedstock ethylene prices lowered production costs, contributing to a slight pullback in prices. Buyers, concerned about trade policy uncertainty, adopted a more cautious approach, which tempered any potential price recovery.
Despite the late-quarter dip, Q1 2025 prices remained higher overall than in Q4 2024. Moving forward, market participants are likely to face challenges stemming from trade policy shifts, fluctuating demand, and stabilizing supply. These factors suggest a more volatile environment in the near term, with pricing strategies having to adapt to ongoing supply-demand realignments.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the mLLDPE market in the APAC region, particularly China, experienced a continued downward pricing trend, shaped by steady supply conditions and soft demand fundamentals. Throughout the quarter, stable ethylene feedstock costs supported production, while domestic supply remained ample, even during seasonal slowdowns caused by the Lunar New Year holidays. New capacity additions and resumed operations post-holiday further bolstered availability. However, despite this supply-side stability, demand remained tepid across key sectors such as packaging, construction, and automotive. The Spring Festival failed to trigger the expected post-holiday surge in downstream orders, particularly in film and agricultural applications. External headwinds, including economic uncertainties, a cautious business climate, and looming tariff concerns, added pressure to market sentiment. Even though activity in construction showed signs of recovery, automotive sector weakness and deflationary forces curbed demand growth. While regional shipping costs fell and imports from alternative suppliers such as Iran increased, mLLDPE prices faced consistent pressure. By the end of March 2025, mLLDPE prices FOB Shanghai dropped 2%, reflecting the quarter-long bearish trajectory. Despite these shifts, the quarter’s overall pricing remained relatively stable compared to Q4 2024, suggesting that ample supply and muted demand will continue to define the market outlook in the short term.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the European mLLDPE market experienced a fluctuating trend, with prices rising during January and February before softening in March. The early-quarter uptrend was supported by reduced domestic supply, increased feedstock ethylene and naphtha prices, and a decrease in cheaper imports. These factors encouraged restocking activity, and producers responded by raising prices. Seasonal agricultural demand, particularly for film applications, further contributed to the bullish sentiment, even as broader consumption was tempered by ongoing inflation and subdued construction activity. As the quarter progressed, demand-side challenges began to outweigh cost pressures. In March, weakened consumption from packaging, construction, and industrial sectors became more prominent, leading to a reversal in the earlier price gains. Falling feedstock costs and sufficient inventory levels across the region helped cool market enthusiasm. Buyers, wary of ongoing economic uncertainties and anticipating potential price reductions, adopted a cautious purchasing approach. Concerns around possible tariffs on U.S. polyethylene imports also added to the cautious mood, limiting buying appetite. With procurement restricted to immediate needs, overall market sentiment in Europe turned conservative, and participants began focusing more on managing inventory levels rather than speculative purchases, reinforcing a softer pricing environment toward the end of the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American market for Metallocene Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (mLLDPE) faced a significant downturn, driven by reduced demand across critical sectors such as packaging, construction, and automotive. Lower feedstock Ethylene costs compounded the situation, reflecting an oversupplied market and amplifying downward pressure on prices. Producers struggled to balance supply and demand as excess inventory persisted throughout the quarter.
The challenges were further intensified by logistical disruptions in the region. Hurricanes and a strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) at key East Coast and Gulf ports caused shipment delays and strained port operations, exacerbating supply chain issues. These obstacles not only postponed deliveries but also fueled uncertainty within the market, forcing businesses to adapt to their operations amid fluctuating pricing and activity levels.
Adding to the complexity, the U.S. Presidential Election created an atmosphere of heightened caution, curbing investments and prompting businesses to minimize inventory buildup. Concerning potential policy shifts, including tariff adjustments under the new administration, introduced additional hesitation among market participants. This blend of political uncertainty and subdued demand contributed to a broader slowdown in the mLLDPE market.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European metallocene Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (mLLDPE) market experienced a steady decline due to falling feedstock Ethylene and Naphtha prices, coupled with subdued demand from packaging, construction, and automotive sectors. Economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions led to cautious purchasing, with buyers delaying commitments amid expectations of further price reductions. High inventory levels added to the oversupply challenges as sellers struggled to clear stocks. Despite lower production costs, weak demand overshadowed any potential price stability. The market also faced pressure from declining Asia-Europe Ocean freight rates, driven by reduced shipping activity after the peak season, which further dampened import demand and exerted downward pressure on mLLDPE prices. Seasonal factors, including the year-end holiday slowdown, exacerbated the consumption slump in downstream industries. The construction sector remained particularly weak, with limited recovery in Eurozone residential projects. Additionally, an unusually mild winter reduced energy demand, compounding market challenges. As the quarter ended, market sentiment remained fragile, reflecting the combined impact of economic uncertainty, geopolitical issues, and seasonal demand contraction, leading to a prolonged downturn for mLLDPE.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the mLLDPE market in the APAC region showed an inclining trend, but overall prices remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Supply and demand were balanced, though market participants remained cautious due to weak downstream demand, particularly in the packaging, construction, and automotive sectors. Despite a slight rise in feedstock Ethylene prices, mLLDPE prices held steady due to limited demand from end-user industries. China faced challenges such as a decline in export demand and logistical disruptions, especially from port congestion in key Asian hubs like Shanghai. However, sectors like automotive showed resilience, helping stabilize mLLDPE consumption. The construction industry continued to face challenges with cautious investment and slow infrastructure development, further dampening demand. Seasonal factors and a slowdown in the packaging sector also exerted additional pressure. The overall supply of mLLDPE remained adequate, even with logistical delays and rising freight rates. As the quarter closed, mLLDPE-FOB Shanghai was priced at USD 1290/MT, unchanged from Q3 2024. The mLLDPE market remained stable throughout the period, reflecting consistent conditions despite external challenges, while market participants faced uncertainty due to weak demand, logistical constraints, and broader economic pressures.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Metallocene Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (mLLDPE) market in North America exhibited a mixed trend, characterized by an initial rise in prices in July, followed by a decline for the remainder of the quarter. Overall, compared to the same period last year, the market experienced a decrease primarily due to moderate to low demand from critical sectors such as construction, automotive, and packaging.
Supply constraints stemming from production disruptions and adverse weather events, including hurricanes, further strained logistics and operations, contributing to price volatility. Additionally, fluctuations in feedstock Ethylene prices, along with variations in upstream Naphtha and Crude oil costs, significantly impacted the market dynamics. The USA witnessed the most pronounced price fluctuations, driven by weakened demand, stable supply levels, competitive pricing from other regions, and lower costs for imported materials. This trend highlighted a stable to negative pricing environment, reflecting the complex interplay of supply and demand factors shaping the mLLDPE market in the region throughout Q3 2024.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, the mLLDPE market in the APAC region experienced a decline in prices due to several influential factors. Significant global port congestion, particularly in major Asian hubs, led to supply chain disruptions and increased freight rates, affecting overall market dynamics. The off-season demand from key sectors, such as construction and packaging, further contributed to a subdued market sentiment. China witnessed the most pronounced price changes, reflecting the overall negative trend across the region. The off-season also led to lower operating rates in downstream industries, compounded by the decline in feedstock Ethylene prices and fluctuations in Crude oil costs. Moreover, Typhoon Yagi caused significant disruptions across Asia, particularly affecting southern China and Vietnam, exacerbating logistical challenges and delaying ocean logistics. Compared to the same period last year, the market saw a decrease, alongside a decline from the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price for mLLDPE-FOB Shanghai in China was USD 1255/MT, underscoring a continued downward trend in pricing. Overall, the pricing environment in Q3 2024 has been predominantly negative, characterized by persistent declines and ongoing challenges in the mLLDPE market.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Metallocene Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (mLLDPE) market in Europe saw a significant rise in prices, influenced by multiple interrelated factors. A key driver was the escalating costs of feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha, which heightened production costs and exerted upward pressure on mLLDPE pricing. Additionally, fluctuations in Crude oil prices added another layer of complexity to market dynamics, affecting overall pricing strategies. Geopolitical tensions in the region further complicated the situation, leading to supply constraints and significant port congestion, which hindered the availability of various mLLDPE grades. This tight supply environment was compounded by a notable decline in the manufacturing sector, where key indicators such as new orders, purchasing activity, and employment rates decreased substantially in September. This consistent increase highlights a bullish outlook, driven by external economic pressures and internal market dynamics, notably the limited supply of mLLDPE that characterized the European market throughout Q3 2024. As these factors continue to change, market participants encountered difficulties stemming from supply chain disruptions and varying raw material costs, which they needed to navigate to remain competitive.
FAQs
1. What is the current market trend for mLLDPE prices globally?
mLLDPE prices declined across major regions in Q2 2025. North America saw a decrease, Asia-Pacific (China) reported a 6% drop, and Europe experienced further softening due to oversupply and weak downstream demand.
2. What is the mLLDPE Price Forecast for Q3 2025?
The mLLDPE Price Forecast remains cautiously bearish for Q3 2025. Weak demand in packaging, hygiene films, and stretch wrap sectors combined with high inventories may continue to pressure prices unless a sharp rebound in consumption occurs.
3. What factors are influencing the mLLDPE Production Cost Trend?
The mLLDPE Production Cost Trend has been stable to slightly declining, supported by lower feedstock ethylene prices, stable energy rates, and reduced logistics costs across most regions. However, weak margins continue to pressure producer profitability.
4. Which sectors are the primary downstream consumers of mLLDPE?
Key downstream sectors include food and hygiene packaging, multilayer barrier films, stretch and shrink wrap, and industrial liners. In Q2 2025, subdued activity in these areas contributed to soft global demand.
