For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In Q4, the market trend of Methanol was observed to be increasing throughout the quarter. In January, the price of Methanol was USD 616/ton Ex-Louisiana, which was supported by the tightness of Natural Gas in the market USA and high demand in the chilling winter, which boosted the prices of Methanol. Towards the end of the quarter, the cost of Methanol surged to a new height of USD 660/ton with supply shortage and a reduction in production rates from the primary producers. Expanding the utilization of Methane by Nation's government to reduce environmental contamination combined with rising interest in Methanol from several end-client ventures sped up the cost. The prices of Methanol in USA in this quarter surged by 3.3% compared with Q4 2021.
Europe
In this quarter, the prices surged with the subsequent month, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict kept the price on the upper end. Seasonal demand growth coupled with higher scrap cost and concern that energy prices can grow further therefore Germany halted the certification process for Nord Stream 2 pipeline, following Moscow’s action in eastern Ukraine this quarter. However, the prices slipped towards the last week of March as the demand from the gasoline blending declined by a marginal level which led to a small dip in Methanol prices. In Germany, the price of Methanol towards the end of the quarter was observed to be USD 580/ton FD Hamburg. The surge of 4.4% was observed in this quarter when compared with prices in Q4 2021.
Asia Pacific
Ihe price of Methanol in China remained on the upper end in the first half of the quarter with solid market sentiments and insufficient product availability. However, towards the second half of the quarter, the prices slipped with reduced storage options; methanol stock remained high in East China because cargoes are ordinarily utilized for position-taking in future markets and only occasionally delivered. Ample demand for oil storage lessens options for Methanol. Adequate stock and frail interest pit load on the Methanol costs in the provincial market. Market sentiments in China soften on the assumption of a new Iranian methanol supply in March and higher close by methanol productions as Natural Gas cuts in China's southwest ease with the beginning of a warmer climate. In China, the price of Methanol in China last week slipped to USD 385/ton CFR Qingdao. The declination of 13.6% was observed in Q1 2022 when compared with the previous quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In Q4, the price of Methanol is observed be on the upper side with increasing demand in downstream sector. Soaring across the board on fears that a new COVID-19 variant identified in Southern Africa created uncertainty in the market in the month of November. Methanol prices have been on the higher side, with latest prices reported as high as USD 645 per MT Ex-Works Louisiana on November 19th. Moving towards the end of Q4 2021, methanol consumption in automobile industry is also spotted to be on the higher side. US Methanol two largest marketers Methanex and Southern Chemical sales revenue increase with increase in the demand of Methanol as a fuel industry.
Asia Pacific
In India, the peak demand of Methanol in this quarter was observed to be on 15 October where the prices were surged to $652/ton Ex-Delhi NCR. Since then, the prices started to slip in most part of Asia. Dull values of feedstock Natural Gas has continued to pressurize Methanol prices across the region. As Methanol in India is mainly imported from Middle East, traders had observed a sharp fall in its offers as its major manufacturers have continued to implement a negative revision in its prices in line with the feedstock values. During the last week of December, the pricing trend of Methanol showcased an upward trajectory as the Ex-works Mumbai prices escalated to $418/ton on 28th December 2021. Several Asian producers increased their prices due to the strong demand from the downstream sectors. Increased prices and consumption of natural gas has positively affected the price fluctuations of Methanol in the country. Improved trading activities across the Asian market have also supported the price trend in India.
Europe
In Q4, the prices of Methanol observed to be surging till 22 October in Germany with price range of $575/ton-$604/ton CFR Hamburg. Demand for its downstream MTBE and Acetic Acid continued to remain strong. As domestic production has not been enough to cater to the demand, rapid increase in freight charges have further restricted the arrival of imports. In November, the prices started to slip where the prices on 26 Nov. slipped to $550/ton CFR Hamburg. Surplus Methanol supply in the region with weak downstream market resulted in this trend. In December, the European contract prices was agreed at $556/ton with spot prices in Rotterdam ending over 5% higher, the momentum in the prices were observed.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The overall pricing outlook of Methanol experienced a significant rise in the North American region during Q3 2021. The production of Methanol in the US observed a severe fall due to the occurrence of Hurricane Ida which made landfall on 29th August in Louisiana, causing shutdown of leading manufacturing plants including Methanex’s Geismar plants having a capacity of 1 mn MT/year and YCI’s St. James Methanol plant having a capacity of 1.7 Mn MT/year. Methanex’s Geismar plant went offline for a major part of September and thus resulted in a snug supply during the quarter. Spot prices of Methanol as assembled on the 1st week of October stood at USD 610 per MT Ex-Works Louisiana which indicated a gain of 12.5 % since the conclusion of August.
Asia
The prices of Methanol traced an upward trend in the Asia Pacific region during the third quarter followed by stable offtakes from the downstream industries amidst tight supply activities. The upward momentum of Methanol in Asia reached a new high during the end week of September with direction largely coming from China and India. Besides, as Methanol is majorly produced by the coal route in China, consistent hikes in coal prices since the beginning of Q3 has also levied an upward pressure upon its fundamentals in the regional market. Amidst the regional shortage, participants fetched Methanol cargoes from the Middle East which consequently registered a significant surge in its prices in the country. In India, the Methanol prices continued to hike weighed by the limited availability of the product in the domestic market, mainly Northeast Asia in Q3. The prices of Methanol in India witnessed a marginal increase from USD 422/MT to USD 449/MT during the third quarter.
Europe
In Q3 of 2021, the demand for Methanol remained high on the back of a shortage of raw materials and limited domestic production. Imports from the USA were tight as major producer YCI did not start producing Methanol during the quarter. In addition, OCIS’s plant in the Netherlands operated at its 50% capacity. The prices of Methanol increased to USD 475/MT CFR Hamburg in September. Due to the limited overseas import and continuously increasing demand, the pricing of Methanol is expected to rise further in Q4. However, several players anticipate that the supply may stabilize with strengthening imports from the US.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
North America’s Methanol pricing traced upward trajectory during this quarter, backed by firm offtakes from the downstream segments in the midst of supply shortage. Producers reported sufficient enquiries from the downstream Acetic Acid, MTBE, and Formaldehyde manufacturers in the meanwhile. Average price of Methanol rose from USD 405/MT to USD 488/MT during this quarter in the USA. In addition, Methanol demand as an alternative fuel was also boosted in the global market with a key producer announcing expansion plans sensing the sharp uptick in its demand as a fuel.
Asia
The Asian Methanol market reported firm sentiment during this quarter, backed by stable offtakes from the downstream sectors amid tight supply activities. In China, prices kept fluctuating throughout the quarter, as the demand and supply fundamentals remained unstable for a larger part of Q2. The demand from the MTBE sector remained bullish throughout the quarter, while other sectors like Formaldehyde and Acetic Acid kept stable offtakes. While in India, prices kept rising due to shortage and halted imports activities in the country, under the second wave of pandemic. Indian Methanol demand remained low initially in April and May from the downstream sector, which improved during the month of June. Thus, the price of Methanol stood rangebound between USD 412/MT and USD 440/MT in India during June 2021.
Europe
The European Methanol demand remained high in Q2 2021, backed by firm demand from the downstream sectors amid tight import supply. World’s first Methanol barge bunkering was conducted at the Rotterdam port during May to observe the feasibility of barge-to-ship supply of Methanol in the world and the outcome was highly in favour of the industry. Downstream demand from derivatives such as MTBE and Acetic Acid remained firm, while the supply activity remained tight. Expensive cargoes also exacerbated the firm pricing across Europe during this quarter. Supply crunch was noted on account of disruptions heard at some major production plants.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
North America faced severe shortage of Methanol along with several other chemicals, due to winter storm across the US gulf. Winter storm totally chocked the Methanol production in the Texas, with several Methanol plants was facing shutdowns within Louisiana. It was estimated that close to 90% of the total Methanol production of North America was halted by the storm in mid-April. Moreover, imports from South America also remained low due to some plant shutdowns. Mitsubishi’s Venezuela plant Metanol de Oriente, having capacity of 750,000 MT per year faced turnaround during January. In addition, Methanex extended shutdown of its Methanol plant in Trinidad for indefinite time. This plant has a capacity of 600,000 MT per year. Extended marked gains, Methanol contract price settled by Methanex corp. for the month of April was around USD 519 per MT.
Asia
The Asian Methanol supply remained tight throughout Q1 2021, and price remained uplifted initially during January and February but later reduced till end of the quarter. There were several reasons behind the fluctuation in prices, one of them being Chinese Lunar Holidays that hampered the overall production of the country, which ultimately reduced the inventory levels and created shortage across the region. Another reason was hike in prices of European Methanol which was close to USD 430 per MT during February. Moreover, Methanex, a global Methanol producer declared the closure of New Zealand based Waitara Valley Methanol producing facility, due to business losses and was unable to sustain the production.
Europe
In Europe, Methanol supply remained tight amid moderate demand from the domestic market. The imports of Methanol were strictly low across the region due to several plant outages across North America. Although the import demand from several Asian countries was high, hence the domestic Methanol price skyrocketed during the first half of the quarter, which later reduced when the supply started to improve.
For the Quarter Ending June 2020
Asia
Asian Methanol market remained shrouded with uncertainties amid easing supply from the Middle east. Exported volumes to Southeast Asia continued to feel the pandemic pain despite lift in lockdown restrictions across several economies by the end of Q2 2020. Slowed demand from the downstream formaldehyde and solvent sectors, which comprise majority of the regional demand, led to mounting of inventories across the ports in India, Thailand and Singapore. Spot Methanol prices in China fell to record lows in the month of June, due to ample inflows of import cargoes further pressuring margins. Although the country seems to get over from pandemic blows, downstream demand is yet to rebound to the pre-pandemic levels.
North America
Coronavirus weakened the Q2 demand outlook of the North American Methanol market, majorly driven by depressed dynamics in the US market. US Gulf coast spot Methanol prices slumped nearly to four-year lows as the nation continued to lead in terms of number of infections across the world. While downstream demand remained largely staged to the April levels, reduced blending of gasoline due to lower demand fundamentals further exacerbated the price fall. Monitoring the impact of persistent Methanol market dullness, several US giants such as Celanese and LyondellBasell cut their yearly capex plans and postponed their tentative plant expansions.
