For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Milk Powder Prices in North America
- In the United States, the Milk Powder Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by persistent weak global demand.
- Milk Powder production costs increased in Q4 2025, with PPI rising 3.0% year-over-year in November 2025.
- Demand for Milk Powder was mixed in Q4 2025; retail sales rose 3.3% year-over-year in November 2025.
- Overall Milk Powder stocks remained elevated in late 2025, despite tight spot nonfat dry milk inventories.
- Global Milk Powder trade flows saw sharp price declines in Q4 2025, influenced by surplus raw milk.
- US milk production surged in October 2025, yet Milk Powder output slumped to a decade low.
- Consumer spending was supported by a 4.4% unemployment rate in December 2025, despite declining confidence.
- General inflation, with CPI rising 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025, impacted Milk Powder operational costs.
- Mailbox milk prices for producers declined in October 2025, contributing to tightening dairy farm margins.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in December 2025 in North America?
- Weak global demand and elevated milk powder stocks pressured prices downward in Q4 2025.
- Rising input costs, with PPI up 3.0% year-over-year in November 2025, pressured producer margins.
- Mailbox milk prices for producers declined in October 2025, reducing raw material costs.
Milk Powder Prices in APAC
- In China, the Milk Powder Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by a global raw milk surplus.
- Raw milk farmgate prices in China declined in Q4 2025 due to an excess of fluid milk supply.
- The Consumer Price Index grew by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating subdued consumer demand.
- Industrial Production increased by 5.2% year-on-year in December 2025, aligning with an expanding Manufacturing Index.
- Retail Sales grew by only 0.9% year-on-year in December 2025, reflecting weak consumer spending.
- Whole Milk Powder imports into China more than doubled in December 2025 compared to the previous year.
- Processors cautiously built Whole Milk Powder inventories in Q4 2025, favoring higher-margin products.
- The Producer Price Index declined by -1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating falling input costs.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Weak consumer demand, with CPI at 0.8% and retail sales at 0.9% in December.
- Falling production costs, as the Producer Price Index declined by -1.9% in December.
- Global raw milk surplus led to a steep decline in dairy commodity prices in Q4 2025.
Milk Powder Prices in Europe
- In Germany, Milk Powder Price Index fell in Q4 2025 and settled at USD 3492/MT, influenced by contracting manufacturing activity in December.
- Production costs rose from upward farm-gate raw milk prices in January-November 2025 and 1.8% CPI in December.
- Demand faced headwinds from a contracting Manufacturing Index in December 2025, despite slight industrial production growth in October.
- The Price Index was pressured by a 2.5% year-over-year decline in producer prices in December 2025.
- EU dairy inventories, particularly butter, built up faster than expected in Q4 2025, creating ample supply.
- Consumer confidence declined to -17.5 in December 2025, alongside a 6.2% unemployment rate, dampening demand.
- Global milk production growth finished strong in Q4 2025, contributing to ample milk supplies.
- Retail sales increased by 1.1% year-over-year in November 2025, supporting consumer-facing Milk Powder products.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Producer prices declined by 2.5% year-over-year in December 2025, indicating deflationary pressure.
- Consumer confidence fell to -17.5 in December 2025, dampening discretionary spending.
- EU dairy inventories built up faster than expected in Q4 2025, creating an oversupplied market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In United States, Milk Powder Price Index fell in Q3 2025, due to ample inventories and weakening export demand.
- Milk Powder production costs eased in Q3 2025 from declining raw milk and feed, contrasting 2.6% PPI increase.
- Domestic infant formula demand remained significant, supported by robust retail sales, up 5.42% in September 2025.
- U.S. raw milk production robustly increased in Q3 2025, driven by herd expansion and productivity gains.
- Ample nonfat dry milk inventories in Q3 2025 resulted from oversupply and weakening export demand.
- U.S. milk powder exports faced headwinds in Q3 2025, with weakening demand from major Asian buyers.
- Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, alongside a 3.0% CPI increase, eroding purchasing power.
- Sluggish industrial production, up 0.1% year-over-year in September 2025, impacted industrial milk powder demand.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in September 2025 in North America?
- Weakening consumer confidence (94.2) and 3.0% CPI increase eroded purchasing power.
- A 4.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 suggested softening labor market, impacting spending.
- Ample nonfat dry milk inventories and easing raw milk costs pressured prices downward.
APAC
- In China, the Milk Powder Price Index stabilized quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining inventories.
- Milk Powder production costs experienced a slight increase in September 2025, driven by stabilizing raw milk prices.
- Infant milk powder demand grew in Q3 2025, supported by favorable fertility policies and increased marketing efforts.
- Consumer demand faced headwinds from a -0.3% CPI and 5.2% unemployment rate in September 2025.
- Industrial demand showed mixed signals; industrial production rose 6.5%, Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025.
- Inventories of whole and skimmed milk powder reached multi-year lows by Q3 2025, reflecting slowing domestic production.
- Whole Milk Powder imports surged in September 2025, while Skim Milk Powder imports decreased, impacting overall trade flows.
- Milk Powder price forecast suggests upward pressure from rising feed costs and tightening raw milk supply outlook.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Milk powder inventories declined to multi-year lows by Q3 2025, tightening supply.
- Raw milk prices, primary feedstock, stabilized and slightly increased in September 2025.
- Consumer confidence at 89.6 and -0.3% CPI in September 2025 tempered demand.
Europe
- In Germany, the Milk Powder Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by contracting manufacturing activity.
- Milk Powder production costs were impacted by elevated raw milk prices in Q3 2025, despite declining feed costs.
- Industrial Production declined by 1.0% year-over-year in September 2025, dampening Milk Powder demand from manufacturing sectors.
- The Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, signaling reduced industrial demand for Milk Powder as an input.
- Consumer demand for dairy products remained robust, supported by a slight 0.2% year-over-year increase in retail sales in September 2025.
- The Producer Price Index declined by 1.7% year-over-year in September 2025, reflecting lower energy costs for milk powder production.
- The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in September 2025, potentially impacting consumer purchasing power for end products.
- A stable unemployment rate of 6.3% in September 2025 provided neutral support for overall consumer spending and demand.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Contracting manufacturing activity in Q3 2025 reduced industrial demand for Milk Powder.
- Elevated raw milk prices in Q3 2025 contributed to higher Milk Powder production costs.
- A 1.7% decline in the Producer Price Index in September 2025 lowered energy costs for drying milk.
