For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, Milk Powder Price Index fell in Q3 2025, due to ample inventories and weakening export demand.
• Milk Powder production costs eased in Q3 2025 from declining raw milk and feed, contrasting 2.6% PPI increase.
• Domestic infant formula demand remained significant, supported by robust retail sales, up 5.42% in September 2025.
• U.S. raw milk production robustly increased in Q3 2025, driven by herd expansion and productivity gains.
• Ample nonfat dry milk inventories in Q3 2025 resulted from oversupply and weakening export demand.
• U.S. milk powder exports faced headwinds in Q3 2025, with weakening demand from major Asian buyers.
• Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, alongside a 3.0% CPI increase, eroding purchasing power.
• Sluggish industrial production, up 0.1% year-over-year in September 2025, impacted industrial milk powder demand.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in September 2025 in North America?
• Weakening consumer confidence (94.2) and 3.0% CPI increase eroded purchasing power.
• A 4.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 suggested softening labor market, impacting spending.
• Ample nonfat dry milk inventories and easing raw milk costs pressured prices downward.
APAC
• In China, the Milk Powder Price Index stabilized quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining inventories.
• Milk Powder production costs experienced a slight increase in September 2025, driven by stabilizing raw milk prices.
• Infant milk powder demand grew in Q3 2025, supported by favorable fertility policies and increased marketing efforts.
• Consumer demand faced headwinds from a -0.3% CPI and 5.2% unemployment rate in September 2025.
• Industrial demand showed mixed signals; industrial production rose 6.5%, Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025.
• Inventories of whole and skimmed milk powder reached multi-year lows by Q3 2025, reflecting slowing domestic production.
• Whole Milk Powder imports surged in September 2025, while Skim Milk Powder imports decreased, impacting overall trade flows.
• Milk Powder price forecast suggests upward pressure from rising feed costs and tightening raw milk supply outlook.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Milk powder inventories declined to multi-year lows by Q3 2025, tightening supply.
• Raw milk prices, primary feedstock, stabilized and slightly increased in September 2025.
• Consumer confidence at 89.6 and -0.3% CPI in September 2025 tempered demand.
Europe
• In Germany, the Milk Powder Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by contracting manufacturing activity.
• Milk Powder production costs were impacted by elevated raw milk prices in Q3 2025, despite declining feed costs.
• Industrial Production declined by 1.0% year-over-year in September 2025, dampening Milk Powder demand from manufacturing sectors.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, signaling reduced industrial demand for Milk Powder as an input.
• Consumer demand for dairy products remained robust, supported by a slight 0.2% year-over-year increase in retail sales in September 2025.
• The Producer Price Index declined by 1.7% year-over-year in September 2025, reflecting lower energy costs for milk powder production.
• The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in September 2025, potentially impacting consumer purchasing power for end products.
• A stable unemployment rate of 6.3% in September 2025 provided neutral support for overall consumer spending and demand.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Contracting manufacturing activity in Q3 2025 reduced industrial demand for Milk Powder.
• Elevated raw milk prices in Q3 2025 contributed to higher Milk Powder production costs.
• A 1.7% decline in the Producer Price Index in September 2025 lowered energy costs for drying milk.
