For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Milk Powder Prices in North America
- In United States, the Milk Powder Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, reflecting elevated manufacturing costs.
- The Milk Powder Production Cost Trend increased in March 2026 as producer prices rose 4.0% year-over-year.
- Consumer prices grew 3.3% in March 2026, reflecting higher natural gas drying costs from January 2026.
- The Milk Powder Demand Outlook strengthened during Q1 2026 as the Manufacturing Index expanded across food processing.
- Industrial production grew 0.7% in March 2026, supporting robust drying facility operations throughout Q1 2026.
- Retail sales increased 4.0% in March 2026, sustaining domestic spot demand for nonfat dry milk in Q1 2026.
- Stable 4.3% unemployment and a 91.8 consumer confidence index in March 2026 supported staple processed food purchases.
- Strong South American export demand in Jan-Mar 2026 elevated the Milk Powder Price Forecast during Q1 2026.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in March 2026 in North America?
- Natural gas energy costs faced upward pressure from severe winter weather disruptions in January 2026.
- Producer prices rose 4.0% in March 2026, forcing manufacturers to pass on elevated processing costs.
- Export demand from South American markets grew steadily from Jan-Mar 2026, tightening available domestic supply.
Milk Powder Prices in APAC
- In China, the Milk Powder Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by structural raw milk oversupply.
- The 1.0% CPI increase in March 2026 supported baseline consumption, stabilizing the Milk Powder Demand Outlook.
- The Milk Powder Production Cost Trend declined despite a 0.5% PPI rise in March 2026.
- Manufacturing Index expanded and industrial production grew 5.7% in March 2026, boosting commercial food processing demand.
- Retail sales grew only 1.7% and unemployment reached 5.4% in March 2026, weakening premium dairy demand.
- Consumer confidence hit 91.6 in February 2026, reducing discretionary spending on infant formula and nutritional powders.
- Raw milk feedstock costs plummeted below production costs due to structural oversupply in February 2026.
- Domestic dairy inventories swelled while Milk Powder export volumes expanded to Southeast Asia during February 2026.
- The Milk Powder Price Forecast remained bearish throughout March 2026 due to sluggish end-consumer demand.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in March 2026 in APAC?
- Raw milk feedstock costs plummeted below production levels due to structural oversupply in February 2026.
- Domestic dairy inventories swelled significantly as surplus raw milk production outpaced consumption in February 2026.
- Weak retail sales growth of 1.7% in March 2026 reduced demand for premium dairy products.
Milk Powder Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Milk Powder Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by plummeting raw milk feedstock costs.
- The Milk Powder Demand Outlook stabilized as retail sales grew by 0.7% year-over-year in February 2026.
- The Milk Powder Production Cost Trend declined, aligning with a 0.2% drop in producer prices in March 2026.
- The Milk Powder Price Forecast remained subdued despite consumer inflation rising by 2.7% year-over-year in March 2026.
- The Manufacturing Index expanded in March 2026, while nutritional dairy product manufacturing strengthened throughout Q1 2026.
- Industrial production remained flat at 0.0% in February 2026, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in February 2026.
- Consumer confidence hit -24.7 in March 2026, while United Kingdom dairy exports to Germany surged in Q1 2026.
- The Milk Powder Price Index reflected sufficient inventories to meet market demand during the milk flush in Q1 2026.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in March 2026 in Europe?
- Raw milk feedstock costs plummeted amid high domestic supply levels across Germany in January 2026.
- Industrial natural gas distribution costs weakened significantly prior to the supply shock in February 2026.
- Export demand for dairy products strengthened, driven by Middle East and Asian interest in March 2026.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Milk Powder Prices in North America
- In the United States, the Milk Powder Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by persistent weak global demand.
- Milk Powder production costs increased in Q4 2025, with PPI rising 3.0% year-over-year in November 2025.
- Demand for Milk Powder was mixed in Q4 2025; retail sales rose 3.3% year-over-year in November 2025.
- Overall Milk Powder stocks remained elevated in late 2025, despite tight spot nonfat dry milk inventories.
- Global Milk Powder trade flows saw sharp price declines in Q4 2025, influenced by surplus raw milk.
- US milk production surged in October 2025, yet Milk Powder output slumped to a decade low.
- Consumer spending was supported by a 4.4% unemployment rate in December 2025, despite declining confidence.
- General inflation, with CPI rising 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025, impacted Milk Powder operational costs.
- Mailbox milk prices for producers declined in October 2025, contributing to tightening dairy farm margins.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in December 2025 in North America?
- Weak global demand and elevated milk powder stocks pressured prices downward in Q4 2025.
- Rising input costs, with PPI up 3.0% year-over-year in November 2025, pressured producer margins.
- Mailbox milk prices for producers declined in October 2025, reducing raw material costs.
Milk Powder Prices in APAC
- In China, the Milk Powder Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by a global raw milk surplus.
- Raw milk farmgate prices in China declined in Q4 2025 due to an excess of fluid milk supply.
- The Consumer Price Index grew by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating subdued consumer demand.
- Industrial Production increased by 5.2% year-on-year in December 2025, aligning with an expanding Manufacturing Index.
- Retail Sales grew by only 0.9% year-on-year in December 2025, reflecting weak consumer spending.
- Whole Milk Powder imports into China more than doubled in December 2025 compared to the previous year.
- Processors cautiously built Whole Milk Powder inventories in Q4 2025, favoring higher-margin products.
- The Producer Price Index declined by -1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating falling input costs.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Weak consumer demand, with CPI at 0.8% and retail sales at 0.9% in December.
- Falling production costs, as the Producer Price Index declined by -1.9% in December.
- Global raw milk surplus led to a steep decline in dairy commodity prices in Q4 2025.
Milk Powder Prices in Europe
- In Germany, Milk Powder Price Index fell in Q4 2025 and settled at USD 3492/MT, influenced by contracting manufacturing activity in December.
- Production costs rose from upward farm-gate raw milk prices in January-November 2025 and 1.8% CPI in December.
- Demand faced headwinds from a contracting Manufacturing Index in December 2025, despite slight industrial production growth in October.
- The Price Index was pressured by a 2.5% year-over-year decline in producer prices in December 2025.
- EU dairy inventories, particularly butter, built up faster than expected in Q4 2025, creating ample supply.
- Consumer confidence declined to -17.5 in December 2025, alongside a 6.2% unemployment rate, dampening demand.
- Global milk production growth finished strong in Q4 2025, contributing to ample milk supplies.
- Retail sales increased by 1.1% year-over-year in November 2025, supporting consumer-facing Milk Powder products.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Producer prices declined by 2.5% year-over-year in December 2025, indicating deflationary pressure.
- Consumer confidence fell to -17.5 in December 2025, dampening discretionary spending.
- EU dairy inventories built up faster than expected in Q4 2025, creating an oversupplied market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In United States, Milk Powder Price Index fell in Q3 2025, due to ample inventories and weakening export demand.
- Milk Powder production costs eased in Q3 2025 from declining raw milk and feed, contrasting 2.6% PPI increase.
- Domestic infant formula demand remained significant, supported by robust retail sales, up 5.42% in September 2025.
- U.S. raw milk production robustly increased in Q3 2025, driven by herd expansion and productivity gains.
- Ample nonfat dry milk inventories in Q3 2025 resulted from oversupply and weakening export demand.
- U.S. milk powder exports faced headwinds in Q3 2025, with weakening demand from major Asian buyers.
- Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, alongside a 3.0% CPI increase, eroding purchasing power.
- Sluggish industrial production, up 0.1% year-over-year in September 2025, impacted industrial milk powder demand.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in September 2025 in North America?
- Weakening consumer confidence (94.2) and 3.0% CPI increase eroded purchasing power.
- A 4.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 suggested softening labor market, impacting spending.
- Ample nonfat dry milk inventories and easing raw milk costs pressured prices downward.
APAC
- In China, the Milk Powder Price Index stabilized quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining inventories.
- Milk Powder production costs experienced a slight increase in September 2025, driven by stabilizing raw milk prices.
- Infant milk powder demand grew in Q3 2025, supported by favorable fertility policies and increased marketing efforts.
- Consumer demand faced headwinds from a -0.3% CPI and 5.2% unemployment rate in September 2025.
- Industrial demand showed mixed signals; industrial production rose 6.5%, Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025.
- Inventories of whole and skimmed milk powder reached multi-year lows by Q3 2025, reflecting slowing domestic production.
- Whole Milk Powder imports surged in September 2025, while Skim Milk Powder imports decreased, impacting overall trade flows.
- Milk Powder price forecast suggests upward pressure from rising feed costs and tightening raw milk supply outlook.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Milk powder inventories declined to multi-year lows by Q3 2025, tightening supply.
- Raw milk prices, primary feedstock, stabilized and slightly increased in September 2025.
- Consumer confidence at 89.6 and -0.3% CPI in September 2025 tempered demand.
Europe
- In Germany, the Milk Powder Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by contracting manufacturing activity.
- Milk Powder production costs were impacted by elevated raw milk prices in Q3 2025, despite declining feed costs.
- Industrial Production declined by 1.0% year-over-year in September 2025, dampening Milk Powder demand from manufacturing sectors.
- The Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, signaling reduced industrial demand for Milk Powder as an input.
- Consumer demand for dairy products remained robust, supported by a slight 0.2% year-over-year increase in retail sales in September 2025.
- The Producer Price Index declined by 1.7% year-over-year in September 2025, reflecting lower energy costs for milk powder production.
- The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in September 2025, potentially impacting consumer purchasing power for end products.
- A stable unemployment rate of 6.3% in September 2025 provided neutral support for overall consumer spending and demand.
Why did the price of Milk Powder change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Contracting manufacturing activity in Q3 2025 reduced industrial demand for Milk Powder.
- Elevated raw milk prices in Q3 2025 contributed to higher Milk Powder production costs.
- A 1.7% decline in the Producer Price Index in September 2025 lowered energy costs for drying milk.
