For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Price Index of Mineral Turpentine Oil (MTO) in North America witnessed a downward trend over Q2 2025, driven by subdued demand from the paints, coatings, and industrial solvent sectors, alongside steady supply levels across the region.
• In April, the Price Index remained stable, as production levels in the U.S. Gulf Coast and imports from Latin America maintained sufficient supply. However, downstream consumption lagged due to below-average construction and remodeling activity during the early spring season.
• In May, the Price Index began to ease, as end-users reduced their spot purchases amid bloated inventories and slow-moving downstream sales. Cooler-than-expected weather in several key states further stalled paint application and solvent demand.
• In June, the Price Index declined further, as sentiment remained cautious despite the start of peak construction season. Many buyers limited procurement to contractual volumes amid limited visibility on future demand recovery.
• Overall, in Q2 2025, the North American MTO market remained oversupplied, with restrained activity from the architectural coatings, industrial maintenance, and adhesives sectors. This market imbalance continued to apply downward pressure on prices across the region.
Why did the price of MTO change in July 2025 in North America?
The price index of Mineral Turpentine Oil (MTO) increased in July 2025 across North America due to:
• Firming demand from the paints, coatings, and solvent sectors, as construction activity and seasonal renovation projects accelerated across the U.S. and Canada during peak summer months.
• Lower production volumes at select Gulf Coast facilities, driven by maintenance-related slowdowns and feedstock optimization strategies, which slightly constrained regional supply.
• Rising upstream costs, as fluctuations in crude oil prices and refinery output pushed production costs higher, prompting price adjustments downstream.
• Increased spot market activity, with distributors and end-users advancing purchases to secure material ahead of further potential price rises.
• Transport-related inefficiencies, including railcar delays and tighter trucking capacity in certain inland markets, which increased delivery costs and supported overall price elevation.
Europe
• The Price Index of Mineral Turpentine Oil (MTO) in Europe declined over the quarter, amid lackluster demand from the paints and coatings industry and ample product availability across Western and Central Europe, which weighed heavily on market sentiment.
• In April, the Price Index remained largely stable, as consistent domestic production and steady imports from North Africa and the Middle East kept supply levels comfortable. Demand remained soft, particularly in Northern Europe, due to subdued construction activity and a cool start to spring.
• In May, the Price Index moved downward, as buyers in Germany, France, and the Benelux region scaled back purchases amidst growing inventories and slower-than-expected project starts. Feedstock price pressure eased slightly, adding to the overall bearishness.
• In June, the Price Index continued its downward trend, as construction activity remained below seasonal norms, while a cautious economic outlook and fiscal tightening across several European economies dampened downstream purchasing volumes.
• Throughout Q2 2025, the European MTO market was marked by oversupply and weak end-user demand, particularly from the decorative coatings and adhesives sectors. Despite stable upstream costs, the muted consumption environment and risk-averse buying behavior led to consistent downward adjustments in pricing.
Why did the price of MTO change in July 2025 in Europe?
The price index of Mineral Turpentine Oil (MTO) increased in July 2025 across Europe due to:
• Strengthening demand from the decorative coatings and industrial solvent sectors, as summer construction and maintenance projects ramped up across Western and Southern Europe.
• Reduced output from selected regional producers, owing to planned maintenance and operational slowdowns, which slightly tightened local supply.
• Upward movement in feedstock and energy input costs, driven by fluctuations in crude oil markets and refining margins, contributed to higher production costs for MTO.
• Proactive buying behavior among downstream players, with distributors and end-users securing additional volumes in anticipation of continued price firmness.
• Minor logistical constraints in inland transport and port handling, especially in central Europe, led to longer leading times and added logistical surcharges that fed into final product pricing.
APAC
• The Price Index of Mineral Turpentine Oil (MTO) in the APAC region declined by 4.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, primarily due to prolonged supply overhang and persistently weak downstream demand from the paints and coatings industries, which contributed to bearish price sentiment across India.
• In April, the Price Index remained stable, as major producers like BPCL held their quotations unchanged, while domestic availability stayed ample due to stock liquidation from the previous financial year, despite easing production costs and subdued export opportunities caused by intra-Asia port congestion.
• During May, the Price Index dropped by approximately 2.5%, driven by a downward revision in domestic prices by key producer BPCL and weak procurement activity, as buyers delayed spot purchases amid expectations of further discounts. Oversupply conditions intensified due to continued low offtake from downstream sectors.
• In June, the Price Index declined by a further 1.2%, despite rising crude oil prices, as abundant inventory levels and another round of price cuts from BPCL led to cautious purchasing behavior. Early monsoon disruptions caused minor logistical delays but did not significantly affect overall product availability.
• Across Q2 2025, the APAC Price Index for MTO faced downward pressure, as demand remained subdued due to declining housing activity and a seasonal slowdown in construction, which suppressed offtake from decorative paints and waterproofing segments, further reinforcing the oversupplied market environment.
Why did the price of MTO change in July 2025 in APAC?
The price index of Mineral Turpentine Oil (MTO) increased in July 2025 across the APAC region due to the following key factors:
• Rising demand from the paints and coatings sector, particularly in India and Southeast Asia, as construction and renovation activities picked up pace following the monsoon onset and improved weather conditions in select regions.
• Tightening regional supply, caused by lower-than-expected production rates at some domestic facilities due to maintenance turnarounds, especially in South Korea and parts of Southeast Asia.
• Higher upstream feedstock costs, as fluctuations in crude oil and refinery output led to costlier raw material inputs for MTO production, which were passed downstream.
• Increased procurement activity by distributors and traders, anticipating potential price hikes in the following weeks amid restocking initiatives and tightening spot availability.
• Port congestion and container imbalances, particularly in major Chinese and Southeast Asian ports, caused minor delivery delays and raised logistics costs, which contributed to overall pricing pressure.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American MTO market exhibited a mixed performance in Q1 2025. Supply remained stable throughout the quarter, with excess inventories preventing price hikes despite weak feedstock market activity and low-priced imports. Freight rate surges from Asia had a minimal impact due to abundant supply and subdued demand. Demand from the downstream paints and coatings sector was weak, largely due to severe winter disruptions in construction activity and delayed projects.
MTO supply continued to be adequate with steady domestic production and lower freight costs. However, competition in the global market increased, with capacity additions in China impacting the market. Severe cold weather disrupted petrochemical operations, but facilities began to normalize. Demand remained weak in the construction and coatings industries due to challenges in the housing market and delayed projects.
Overall, MTO prices remained stable amid weak feedstock prices and reduced demand from the paints and coatings sector. Global supply oversaturation and intensified export competition contributed to continued price declines. While U.S. manufacturing activity showed slight improvement, construction sector demand remained weak, dampening the MTO market prospects.
APAC
The APAC Mineral Turpentine Oil (MTO) market experienced a mostly bullish trend in Q1 2025, with prices witnessing a net gain of approximately 2.5% by the end of the quarter. January began with stable prices, but a rise in production costs driven by increasing crude oil prices exerted upward pressure. This was passed on to downstream buyers, with demand receiving partial support from the wedding season, although the construction sector remained sluggish. In February, MTO prices increased slightly due to tight supply amid low inventory levels, despite a decline in crude oil prices. Production costs fell, but limited supply due to refinery turnarounds and increased exports contributed to higher prices. However, demand remained subdued, especially after the wedding season concluded, and lower residential real estate activity continued to dampen market prospects. In March, prices declined, driven by a decrease in crude oil costs and strong supply-side fundamentals. Major suppliers implemented price reductions, contributing to the bearish trend. Weak demand from the paints and coatings and construction sectors further pressured the market, resulting in cautious procurement activity.
Europe
The European MTO market exhibited a mixed performance in Q1 2025. Supply remained stable throughout the quarter, with excess inventories preventing price hikes despite weak feedstock market activity and low-priced imports. Freight rate surges from Asia had a minimal impact due to abundant supply and subdued demand. Demand from the downstream paints and coatings sector was weak, largely due to severe winter disruptions in construction activity and delayed projects. MTO supply continued to be adequate with steady domestic production and lower freight costs. However, competition in the global market increased, with capacity additions in China impacting the market. Severe cold weather disrupted petrochemical operations, but facilities began to normalize. Demand remained weak in the construction and coatings industries due to challenges in the housing market and delayed projects. Overall, MTO prices remained stable amid weak feedstock prices and reduced demand from the paints and coatings sector. Global supply oversaturation and intensified export competition contributed to continued price declines. While European manufacturing activity showed slight improvement, construction sector demand remained weak, dampening the MTO market prospects.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Mineral Turpentine Oil (MTO) market experienced mixed conditions during Q4 2024 due to rising feedstock Crude Oil prices and various supply disruptions. Crude Oil prices increased by approximately 2%, but later depreciated by around 1%, which continued to influence MTO production costs. The first month of the quarter was impacted by unfavorable import conditions, including a strike between USMX and ILA that caused delays in unloading ships and increased lead times, further driving up prices. Throughout most of the quarter, US suppliers primarily relied on existing inventories, with the hurricane season extending until November 2024.
By the end of the quarter, the market turned bearish, dominated by liquidation activities as suppliers sought to clear stock. Demand remained sluggish, particularly in the construction sector, which showed minimal fluctuations and prevented any significant recovery.
As the year closed, US suppliers continued liquidating inventories to avoid inventory devaluation and mitigate year-end tax repercussions.
APAC
The APAC MTO market experienced a mixed trend in Q4 2024, with prices dropping by 8.5% before recovering by 5.3% in December. A 3% rise in crude oil prices in October had little impact on MTO prices, despite higher import volumes due to increased availability of Urals crude. However, total crude oil imports decreased by 8% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year, averaging 4.31 million barrels per day (mb/d). MTO production reached 3 million metric tons (MMT), while consumption was only 0.8 MMT, resulting in ample supply and subdued pricing.
In November, crude oil prices depreciated by 4%, further lowering MTO prices. Refinery runs increased by 250,000 barrels per day, raising production to 3 MMT, while consumption remained steady. Market expectations indicated continued increases in production, maintaining downward price pressure.
By December, MTO production costs remained stable, supported by steady crude oil prices. However, crude oil imports showed a slight 0.5% increase, with a 17% drop in Russian crude imports. As regional supplies ran low and producers hesitated to further lower prices due to ongoing declines, BPCL revised its prices upwards, contributing to a recovery in the market.
Europe
The European MTO market witnessed mixed trends, predominantly following a bearish market situation. While supplies from the APAC region remained constrained, the European market continued to experience ample availability of the product. Demand from downstream industries, especially paints and coatings, remained sluggish, with minimal off-takes observed across the region. Midway through the quarter, trading activities were subdued, further hindered by strikes and disruptions at key ports in Northwest Europe, which caused delays in circulation and impacted logistics.
As the quarter advanced, liquidation activities gained momentum, with market participants focusing on clearing excess inventories ahead of the festive holiday period. Despite the ongoing challenges, the market was largely supported by limited supply disruptions and no major outages, ensuring a stable flow of product into the region.
By the end of the quarter, the overall market sentiment remained predominantly bearish. The combination of weak demand from key downstream sectors and the continued availability of sufficient supplies kept the market in a steady but downward trend. This balance between available stock and subdued demand resulted in a cautious outlook as the year ended, with expectations of further challenges in the upcoming quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American Mineral Turpentine Oil (MTO) market faced a bearish situation during the quarter, largely driven by a 13% decline in crude oil prices. Despite this price drop, MTO production in the US remained low due to reduced refinery rates. According to data from the EIA, average refinery run rates decreased from 92.7% in July to 92.2% in August, and further to 90.8% in September 2024, as the ongoing hurricane season prompted cautious operational measures across US refineries. Some facilities even declared force majeure due to damage from Hurricanes Beryl and Francine, further contributing to the low production levels of MTO.
Demand conditions from the downstream paints and coatings industries were unfavourable, impacted by seasonal factors and high mortgage rates that dampened homebuying prospects. As the quarter progressed, uncertainty loomed over the market due to upcoming elections, leading to suppliers receiving only small quantities of orders.
This combination of low production, weak demand, and market uncertainty created a challenging environment for the Mineral Turpentine Oil market in North America.
APAC
The Asian Mineral Turpentine Oil (MTO) market experienced notable fluctuations during the third quarter of 2024. Overall, MTO prices remained stable, exhibiting a variation of approximately 0.8%. In the opening month of the quarter, reduced production amidst higher consumption drove a bullish market, with active restocking ahead of the festive season contributing to rising prices. However, the market soon shifted to a bearish trend as production costs decreased, largely due to a 13.5% decline in crude oil prices, which lowered MTO production costs. Additionally, several refineries that underwent maintenance in the earlier part of the quarter returned to production, improving domestic supply levels. This bearish market situation was further exacerbated by the underwhelming performance of the downstream construction industry, particularly during the monsoon season, which dampened demand prospects. Even after the monsoon season, recovery was reported as sluggish, continuing to exert downward pressure on the MTO market. As a result, the combination of increased supply and weakened demand contributed to a more challenging market environment for Mineral Turpentine Oil across the region.
Europe
The European Mineral Turpentine Oil (MTO) market experienced a bearish trend throughout the quarter, primarily driven by unfavourable demand conditions from the downstream construction sector and a 13% depreciation in crude oil prices, which eased production costs. Despite this, MTO supplies across Europe remained moderate due to several refineries undergoing maintenance turnarounds, limiting production capacity. Major firms conducted strategic reviews of their assets, leading to refinery closures and a subsequent reduction in domestic supplies. Additionally, strikes in Germany and various other regions threatened export conditions, compounded by the worsening crisis in the Red Sea, which resulted in inventory accumulation at ports and further pressured prices downward. The ongoing downturn in the construction sector persisted, with investment sentiments remaining historically low, leading to a lack of incoming work for European contractors. Consequently, many suppliers opted to destock construction materials in response to deteriorating demand conditions. Overall, these factors created a challenging environment for the MTO market in Europe, characterized by reduced production, weakened demand, and declining prices.
FAQ’s
1. What factors primarily influence the price of Mineral Turpentine Oil (MTO)?
MTO prices are largely driven by fluctuations in crude oil prices, regional refining margins, supply-demand balance, seasonal demand from the paints and coatings industry, and transportation costs.
2. Why do MTO prices fluctuate seasonally?
Prices tend to rise during peak construction and painting seasons—typically in summer months—due to higher demand from architectural coatings and industrial maintenance sectors. Conversely, demand dips during colder months, often softening prices.
3. How do supply disruptions impact MTO pricing?
Unplanned shutdowns, refinery maintenance, or port congestion can tighten supply, pushing MTO prices higher. Stable production and logistics, on the other hand, help moderate price volatility.
4. What role does feedstock availability play in MTO pricing?
Feedstock availability, especially from naphtha or kerosene-based streams in refineries, directly affects MTO production levels. Any constraint on upstream availability often leads to increased costs and price escalations.
5. How does import activity affect MTO pricing in regional markets?
Regions that rely on imports—like parts of Southeast Asia or Latin America—can see MTO prices influenced by international freight costs, currency fluctuations, and availability from major exporters. In contrast, self-sufficient regions may see more stable pricing trends.
