For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the U.S. Molybdenum market showed varying trends. August began with a 1.3% price increase in the spot market, while September prices remained stable. Supply consistently met stainless steel demand, though manufacturing rates stayed below optimal levels. Port congestion and logistical challenges, including a coastwide longshoremen's strike, impacted supply chains.
Ocean freight rates showed mixed movements, with Asia-US West Coast prices increasing by 1% while East Coast rates declined by 4%. The automotive sector displayed significant volatility, with August recording a 6% increase in vehicle sales to 1,422,036 units, followed by a sharp 12.3% decline in September to 1,172,101 units. Construction sector indicators were mixed, with overall input prices rising marginally while steel prices decreased, including a 2.6% drop in steel mill product prices.
North American production declined by 2% to 27.6 million pounds, despite global production rising by 1% to 159.2 million pounds. The quarter recorded a notable increase of 8% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with Molybdenum prices at USD 55527/MT of Ferro-molybdenum 65%min CFR San Diego (USA), reflecting the overall upward trajectory in pricing for the region.
Asia-Pacific
In Q3 2024, the APAC Molybdenum market demonstrated varied dynamics across China, India, and Thailand, with each country facing unique market conditions and challenges. China maintained stable Ferromolybdenum prices in September, supported by consistent demand from stainless-steel mills, despite a Manufacturing PMI of 49.8% indicating sector contraction. The market was influenced by government stimuli in the construction sector, though real estate concerns persisted.
Thailand experienced a 1.2% price increase in August but faced pressure from regulatory changes and potential oversupply due to increased Chinese capacity from Yongjin Metal Technology Group. The country's manufacturing sector showed positive but slowing growth, with capacity utilization remaining below 30%. India also saw a 1.2% rise in Ferromolybdenum spot prices during August, driven by increased stainless-steel mill demand and a 26.5% surge in steel imports.
However, like Thailand, India struggled with low-capacity utilization and declining Manufacturing PMI of 49.8%. All three markets shared common challenges including high inventory levels, sluggish demand, and seasonal factors affecting steel prices. The automotive sector's performance, particularly in Thailand and India, indicated potential softening of steel component demand. While local traders in India anticipated improved demand during the festive season, the overall regional market maintained a cautious outlook amid economic uncertainties and supply-demand imbalances. The quarter recorded a slight increase of 3% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with Ilmenite prices at USD 33228/MT of Ferro-molybdenum 60%min FOB Shanghai (China), reflecting the overall upward trajectory in pricing for the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European stainless-steel mills faced significant challenges, primarily due to high interest rates and elevated energy costs, which limited their participation in the molybdenum market. The sector's performance was notably impacted by broader economic pressures in the region. Logistical challenges persisted throughout the quarter, with increased congestion at major European ports including Barcelona, Valencia, Hamburg, and Bremerhaven. Hamburg particularly experienced longer delays compared to other North European hubs, exacerbated by Red Sea disruptions forcing alternative routing.
Ocean freight rates showed significant movements, with prices from Asia to Northern Europe decreasing by 17% per FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean prices fell by 10%. These logistics trends influenced overall market dynamics and pricing structures. Global production context showed China leading with 74.9 million pounds, while European consumption remained constrained by market conditions. Despite these challenges, the molybdenum market-maintained stability, supported partially by Chinese demand despite their construction sector concerns. The quarter recorded a notable increase of 9% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with prices at USD 32120/MT of Ferro-molybdenum 60%min CFR Novorossiysk (Russia), reflecting the overall upward trajectory in pricing for the region.
