For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America:
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the pricing chart for Mustard oil within the North American region continued to witness a pessimistic trajectory similar to that of the Apac region. The market faced challenges due to lower consumptions, limited import momentum ahead of increased freight charges, and sufficient inventories among suppliers and market players.
The USA's reliance on importing Mustard Oil from the Apac region, primarily India made it susceptible to fluctuations in Indian provinces, which had a profound impact on the domestic market. The major exporting regions experienced high production availability of mustard seed for the production of mustard oil while weaker inquiries arrived. This compelled market players to adjust their quotations to protect profit margins.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions added complexity to market sentiments. The escalated container freight rates contributed to the price surge; particularly impacting industries reliant on maritime transport, which further kept the merchants highly reluctant to place newer quotations ahead of persistent weak purchasing within the market. However, moving forward toward the end of the quarter, the resumption of trade activities and shipments played a pivotal role in enhancing the availability of commodities, including Mustard Oil. The increased accessibility of these goods helped to alleviate concerns over potential supply shortages, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices. However, despite these positive developments, the market faced challenges stemming from subdued demand, sluggish purchasing activities, and depressed consumer confidence, thereby sustaining an overall downward trend throughout the quarter with market players consdierably engaged in inventory management practices, seeking to destock existing inventories in preparation for replenishment with fresh supplies.
Asia Pacific:
During the first quarter of 2024, the Mustard oil market in the APAC region exhibited a pessimistic trajectory, particularly within India, where the demand-supply dynamics were notably weakened. Merchants primarily focused on evaluating overall inquiries and quotations to gauge market conditions. The market's journey in January 2024 was marked by dynamic fluctuations, with prices occasionally dipping below the government-set Minimum Support Price (MSP) in specific markets. Additionally, the significant upsurge in international palm oil prices prompted a reassessment of cooking oil imports in the country, subsequently leading to a reduction in imports and influencing domestic pricing dynamics. Further, anticipation of the imminent mustard crop harvest influenced market dynamics, with expectations of increased domestic supply leading to adjustments in pricing structures. While, on the demand side, consistent patterns of subdued demand were observed, with regional inquiries being satisfactorily met by domestic suppliers. The ongoing harvesting season contributed to increased availability from farmers, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices in February as well. Lastly, contributing to this, the devaluation of the Indian Rupee (INR) against the dollar persisted, further disincentivizing merchants from stocking up their inventories with mustard oil, which would incur relatively higher costs, thereby marking an overall pessimistic trajectory until the final weeks of March 2024.
Europe:
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the European market for Mustard oil has mirrored the downward trajectory observed in other regions such as North America and the Asia Pacific. Various factors have contributed to this persistent decline in prices. Chief among them is the weakened demand for Mustard oil, both domestically and internationally, which has exerted significant downward pressure on prices. In response, suppliers have actively adjusted their pricing strategies to align with the subdued demand, resulting in a proactive drop in prices across the market. Furthermore, the continuous decline in the export market, particularly within the APAC region, has amplified negative market sentiments in importing nations like Europe. This was supported by geopolitical tensions resulting in trade disruptions which have complicated market dynamics, exacerbating the prevailing pessimism. Container freight rates have emerged as a notable factor impacting industries reliant on maritime transport, thereby affecting import momentum. However, toward the end of the first quarter, trade activity was resurgent following the subsiding impact of the Red Sea shipping disruption and the presence of underutilized capacity among suppliers. This has bolstered commodity availability, including Mustard oil. Despite these improvements, downstream procurement of Mustard oil has continued to experience a consistent decline, culminating in a pessimistic end to the first quarter. Buyers have exhibited cautious behavior, adopting a "wait-and-see" approach before committing to additional orders, reflecting their subdued enthusiasm amidst prevailing market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Throughout the entire fourth quarter of 2023, Mustard oil prices in the North American region followed a nuanced market trajectory, leaning toward the optimistic side with a moderate decline in November 2023. The quarter commenced positively with heightened demand, supported by increased inquiries from the regional market and elevated shipping costs from exporting nations, maintaining an optimistic outlook for Mustard Oil prices throughout October 2023. Additionally, downstream businesses adjusted prices for customers, notably driven by the onset of the winter season, which spurred a surge in domestic inquiries.
The generally positive market sentiment was further reinforced by the rising costs of essential input materials, such as energy and raw materials in recent months. However, as the fourth quarter progressed, prices experienced a significant decline due to a moderate drop in downstream purchasing activity. This led to increased stockpiling of inventories among suppliers and retailers. The broader trend observed in major exporting countries, marked by a drop in Mustard oil prices in the APAC region, influenced the market trend in other countries as well. Market participants closely monitored these developments, with transactions generally favoring the downside throughout the month.
Entering December 2023, Mustard oil prices rebounded once again. The state of the US market reflected cautious optimism amid prevailing economic concerns. The increased adoption of on-demand procurement by downstream businesses resulted in a sustained demand-supply equilibrium in the domestic market, expediting delivery times. Ongoing geopolitical tensions impacting global trade routes led to increased freight charges, contributing to additional costs throughout the supply chain and supporting the current rise in overall Mustard oil prices.
Asia Pacific
In the APAC region during the fourth quarter of 2023, the pricing dynamics of Mustard Oil reflected a diverse market sentiment. The market maintained an upward trajectory throughout the quarter until the conclusion of December, with a slight dip in November 2023. Initially, in October 2023, Mustard oil prices witnessed an upward trend in the Indian market. This was fueled by consistent supply orders from retailers and suppliers to manufacturers, aligning with the festive season in the region. Additionally, the market was influenced by the rising prices of other edible oils like soybean and palm oil, positioning Mustard Oil as a more cost-effective alternative. The shift in consumer preference towards Mustard Oil further contributed to the upward price trend. As November 2023 unfolded, the prices of Mustard Oil stabilized, balancing the overall supply-demand dynamics across the region. Moving into December 2023, the Ex-location price of Mustard oil in India experienced a slight increase compared to November. Although the price difference in this month was not as significant as the previous one, there was a modest rise in downstream consumption. Apart from existing stocks, Indian traders also imported a considerable quantity of Mustard oil from UAE and Ukraine. However, disruptions in trade routes within the Red Sea raised concerns over agricultural commodities, particularly affecting Indian trade exports due to the rerouting of shipments and resulting in extended delivery times. This was supported by increased fuel and freight charges, contributing to the overall price surge. Furthermore, trade activity during this month was predominantly driven by regional inquiries, with merchants expected to focus on bolstering their stock levels to meet the continuous rise in downstream consumption in the forthcoming period.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2023, Mustard oil prices mirrored the market trends observed in other nations, primarily North America and the Asia Pacific region. Initially, the German market saw an increase in downstream consumption of Mustard Oil. This heightened demand was driven by factors such as rising production expenses and soaring energy costs in exporting nations, consistently pushing overall market prices upward. Businesses actively replenished their inventories through substantial orders, contributing to the market's strength. Downstream panel factories adjusted their procurement based on demand, leading to increased bidding and offers among enterprises, influencing market dynamics. However, in November, the market weakened, sustained by a decline in downstream consumption, which was balanced by sufficient availability of inventories meeting the arrived demand. Domestic acquisitions mainly occurred on an as-needed basis, maintaining a sustained, albeit subdued, trade momentum in the short term. As the quarter approached its conclusion, the notable decrease in Mustard Oil prices in the German market during December 2023 attracted attention from industry players and analysts. This shift in pricing dynamics deviated from earlier projections, impacting both market experts and traders who strategically built up stocks in anticipation of an expected surge in demand from their respective end-user sectors. The unexpected turn in the market as December approached prompted merchants to recalibrate their inventory levels in response to the evolving landscape.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
During the entire third quarter of 2023, Mustard oil prices mimicked the market trajectory of the APAC region and demonstrated an optimistic pricing trend. The rising demand within the downstream sector and increasing inquiries from the regional market kept the prices on the optimist side throughout the third quarter of 2023. Further supporting this, the notable decline in inventory levels further supported the substantial purchasing sentiments. Additionally, during the third quarter of 2023, the costs associated with transporting costs to the United States experienced a significant rise, keeping the market sentiments on the upper side. While the market participants anticipated future demand and recognized the challenges in the supply chain, many businesses opted to replenish their inventories for the entire quarter. This bulk ordering created a surge in demand, further straining the already limited supply, which in turn pushed prices to move on the Northerly side until the entire month, i.e., September. Also, a notable price increase in the United States has been attributed to rising raw material costs, specifically Mustard seeds, and increased production expenses.
Asia Pacific
Throughout the third quarter of 2023 in the APAC region, Mustard Oil prices displayed an optimistic market sentiment. Several factors contributed to this increase, including a delayed monsoon, unseasonal rains, and insect attacks, impacting the mustard crop in India. These factors led to reduced manufacturing, resulting in limited availability in the market. Additionally, the demand for mustard oil in India rose due to its widespread use in religious rituals and cooking, especially during festival seasons. The rising costs of inputs like fertilizers and insecticides for mustard cultivation added to the production expenses for farmers. Consequently, consumers experienced higher mustard oil prices due to increased production costs. Moreover, export sales expanded significantly, driven by strong demand from countries such as China and the US. Buyers increased their purchasing activities, leading to a sharp rise in demand. Manufacturers responded by increasing hiring, although overall employment growth was the slowest in four months. Simultaneously, manufacturers and suppliers focused on maintaining sufficient stock levels of Mustard Oil in anticipation of high demand during upcoming festivals. This strategic approach supported the upward market trajectory for the month. India, being the world's largest producer of Mustard Oil, saw speculators betting on a firm trend in the spot market. However, limited supplies from growing regions primarily contributed to the rise in Mustard seed costs.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2023, Mustard oil prices consistently climbed, aligning with market trends in other nations, especially in the United States and the Asia Pacific region. This rise was propelled by a substantial surge in regional demand and scarcity in stock, resulting in elevated global prices for Mustard oil, including in the European market. Furthermore, there was sustained strong purchasing activity in the regional market throughout the month. The global festival season, particularly in exporting regions like India, typically kicks off in August and extends until October. During this period, there was a heightened demand for groundnut oil due to its essential role in many traditional dishes. This increased demand further contributed to the ongoing price hikes. Notably, the Indian market witnessed a rise in mustard oil prices due to the soaring demand in recent months. The market dynamics are being influenced by a shortage in mustard oil supply, less-than-optimal crushing activities, and government intervention. Additionally, market participants faced domestic supply shortages due to a continuous surge in inquiries, reinforcing the upward trend in mustard oil prices.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Mustard Oil prices in North America during the 2nd quarter of 2023 followed the trend of the European market. The price of Mustard oil decreased with the start of the second quarter and continued until the final weeks of May, while it inclined significantly across the United States throughout June. This implies that the market sentiment for Mustard oil was somewhat on the north side. The reason for the price decrease was the high Mustard Oil inventories in North America at the time, the ample supply supported by weaker trade momentum. Additionally, decrease in imports from exporting counties further supported the downward price trend of Mustard oil in the North American region until May. Furthermore, the overall june’s optimistic market trend for Mustard oil was supported by surge in domestic inquires which was balanced by overall higher stockpiles witnessed within the region. However, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% in June 2023 from May which further supported the positive demand side for Mustard Oil in the entire United States.
Asia Pacific
Mustard Oil prices across the Asia-Pacific region dropped consistently until the end of May while inclined significantly during June. Overall, Mustard oil prices decreased in the second quarter due to weak demand, weakened vegetable oil markets and falling crude oil prices, according to analysts. the Dreary request from both the international and domestic markets has kept the trade activity in a downward direction for Mustard Oil. Both the domestic and international markets did not notice any significant changes in the inquiries, which supported the weaker price trend in India until May. Furthermore, to avoid their profit losses due to low demand, market participants plan to lower the price on the domestic market. In addition, the overall mustard oil market has been quiet in June and the prices of palm oil and soybean oil have consistently decreased. In June, there has been a significant improvement in Mustard Oil prices as well as in prices of groundnut, seed oil. This was mainly due to an increase in domestic demand for Mustard Oil from end-users in the cooking, feeding and food industries. the India Manufacturing PMI registered 57.8, down from May’s 31-month high of 59.7 and below market expectations of 59.0. Consumer price growth moderated in June, after an increase of 6.5% in January which further supported the upward market trend for Mustard oil in India. With tis, the prices of Mustard Oil in the Indian market were assembled at USD 1321.53/MT Ex-Agra.
Europe
Mustard Oil market ended the second quarter of 2023 on a bearish note, with prices continuing to its downward trend across the European market until the final weeks of May. European prices of Mustard oil continue to fall, across the domestic market, due to subdued demand, weaker trade activity and higher stockpiles with the merchants. One of the reasons for the drop in the prices of Mustard oil in Europe is that the market has sufficient reserves and there was less purchasing sentiment. However, the suppliers were reluctant to place newer quotations and focused on destocking their previous stockpiles. However, as June concludes the prices of Mustard oil inclined across the European market which was supported by increased domestic demand balanced with the overall supplies among the market participants. Also, the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% in June 2023 from May, indicating a positive demand outlook. Also, the traders anticipated that the demand from dowenstream sector would continue to remain on the north side which further compelled them to raise their quotations.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The first quarter of 2023 saw a fluctuation in Mustard Oil prices in North America due to unstable market dynamics. As a result of the unsettling year of low crop yields following weeks of dry weather, prices rose throughout the first part of the quarter. According to farmers and agricultural organizations, the supply constraints brought on by the pandemic and inflation are driving up the cost of their supplies. Although product prices were somewhat stable in the second half of the quarter, prices stabilized. The offtakes were heading downward, which caused prices to drop, and also, because of shifting market emotions, the prices were also altering.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, the prices for Mustard oil were seen fluctuating in the first quarter of 2023. Prices were already high due to an overproduction of mustard oil at the start of the first half in response to the pricing trend of the first quarter of 2023. Prices have increased since India's import tax on vegetable oils has been extended to March 2023. The price decreased in the second half compared to the first quarter because of the early mustard crop harvest, which led to a significant supply. The supply-demand was balanced in the market because of the piled supply of mustard oil that had previously been imported from Russia. Prices continued to be the same, which were in the declining phase throughout the final month of the quarter. Near the end of the quarter in March, prices for Ex-Agra were estimated to be around USD 1677.16/MT.
Europe
In Europe, the price of Mustard oil fluctuated throughout the first quarter of 2023 as a result of competing market sentiments. The first half of the quarter saw an increase in costs as a result of the unsettling year of low crop yields following weeks of dry weather. Farmers and agricultural organizations contend that rising inflation and supply restrictions are increasing the cost of their inputs. Price stability resulted from the edible oil market's stability in the second half of the quarter. Prices decreased as a result of a decline in downstream businesses' offtakes. Prices fluctuated as the market mood shifted and grew increasingly dynamic.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Prices for mustard oil in North America fluctuated throughout the fourth quarter of 2022 because of opposing market sentiments. Prices increased during the first half of the quarter as a result of the unsettling year of low crop yields following weeks of dry weather. Farmers and agricultural organizations assert that the pandemic-related supply restrictions and inflation are pushing up the price of their inputs. Prices stabilized as a result of some product price stability in the second part of the quarter. Prices fell as a result of the trending decline in offtakes. The prices were changing as a result of the evolving market sentiments.
Asia Pacific
Price increases were seen in mustard oil in the fourth quarter of 2022. Due to an abundance of mustard oil production at the beginning of the first half in response to the pricing pattern of the fourth quarter of 2021, prices were already high. Due to the extension of India's import tariff on vegetable oils till March 2023, prices have gone up. Due to the early harvest of the mustard crop, which resulted in a considerable supply, the price rose in the second half compared to the first quarter. Due to the stacked supply of mustard oil that had previously been imported from Russia, the market's demand-supply balance was unstable. Through the last month of the quarter, prices stayed the same. Near the end of the quarter in December, prices for Ex-Agra were estimated to be around USD 1800.32/MT.
Europe
Due to the conflicting market emotions, the price of mustard oil varied throughout the fourth quarter of 2022 in Europe. Due to the unsettling year of low crop yields after weeks of dry weather, prices rose throughout the first half of the quarter. Farmers and agricultural organizations claim that supply constraints brought on by the epidemic and inflation are driving up the cost of their inputs. Due to the second half of the quarter's stable edible oil market, prices steadied. The downward trend in offtakes from the downstream industries caused prices to drop. Prices were changing as market sentiment changed and became more mixed.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The third quarter of 2022 saw a decline in the market's sentiment about Mustard Oil. Due to an abundance of mustard oil production at the beginning of the first half in response to the pricing pattern of the fourth quarter of 2021, prices were already high. Due to the prolongation of India's import tariff on vegetable oils until March 2023, prices have decreased. Due to the early harvest of the mustard crop, which resulted in a considerable supply, the price decreased in the second half compared to the first quarter. Due to the stacked supply of mustard oil that had previously been imported from Russia, the market's demand-supply balance remained stable. Due to consistent demand and an abundance of supply, prices in the USA market decreased following the quarter.
Asia Pacific
In the third quarter of 2022, the Mustard Oil market mood was deteriorating. Prices were already high due to abundant mustard oil output at the start of the first half in response to the price pattern of the fourth quarter of 2021. Prices have been reduced due to the extension of India's import tax on vegetable oils until March 2023. The price dropped in the second half compared to the first quarter due to the early harvest of the mustard crop, which produced a sizable supply. The market's demand-supply balance was stable due to the stacked supply of mustard oil that had previously been imported from Russia. Prices in the Indian market fell after the quarter as a result of the Indian government's approval of an export ban. Prices remained the same through the last month of the quarter. Prices were estimated to be approximately USD 1654/MT for Ex-Agra in September, near the end of the quarter.
Europe
The market's opinion of mustard oil decreased in the third quarter of 2022. Prices were already high as a result of a surplus of mustard oil output at the start of the first half in response to the pricing pattern of the fourth quarter of 2021. Prices have decreased as a result of India's import duty on vegetable oils being extended until March 2023. The price dropped in the second half compared to the first quarter as a result of the early harvest of the mustard crop, which produced a considerable supply. The market's demand-supply balance remained consistent as a result of the stacked supply of mustard oil that had previously been imported from Russia. The prices were fluctuating as a result of the evolving mixed market sentiments. Prices in the European market fell after the quarter as a result of constant demand and a surplus of supply.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
Due to the conflicting market attitudes, mustard prices in North America fluctuated throughout the second quarter of 2022. Due to the turbulent year of low crop yields following weeks of dry weather, prices rose in the first half of the quarter. Farmers and agricultural organizations claim that supply constraints and inflation brought on by the pandemic are driving up the cost of their inputs. Due to some product price stability in the second half of the quarter, prices stabilized. The offtakes were on a declining trend, which caused the prices to drop. Due to the shifting market attitudes, the prices were moving.
Asia Pacific
Market sentiments for mustard oil were mixed in the first quarter of 2022. Due to slow mustard oil production at the beginning of the first half in response to the price trend of the final quarter of 2021, prices were already high. Due to the early harvest of the mustard crop, which resulted in a significant supply, the price declined in the second half compared to the previous quarter. Due to the stacked supply of the mustard oil that had previously been imported from Russia, the demand-supply side of the market was also regular. Due to the Indian government's approval of an export prohibition, prices in the Indian market declined after the quarter.
Europe
In Europe, the price of Mustard fluctuated throughout the Q2 of 2022, owing to the mixed market sentiments. Prices increased during the first half of the quarter due to the unsettling year of low crop yields following weeks of dry weather. Farmers and agricultural organizations assert that the pandemic-related supply restrictions and inflation are pushing up the price of their inputs. Prices stabilized because of stability in the edible oil market in the second half of the quarter. Prices fell due to the trending decline in offtakes from the downstream industries. The prices were fluctuating as a result of the evolving mixed market sentiments.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In the first quarter of 2022, the market for Mustard oil fell gradually with an increase in production rate among the major producers in Canada. In Q1 2022, the harvesting of mustard oil subdued the operating cost, which slowed the prices for regional and overseas suppliers. However, falling mustard oil prices had little impact on other cooking oils, namely sunflower oil and palm oil. Export from Canada to China and US remained tepid with moderately operating trading activities. Towards the second half of the first quarter, the prices ramped up with healthy demand in the domestic market and rising geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine.
Asia Pacific
In the first quarter of 2022, the market of Mustard oil experienced mixed market sentiments. At the onset of the first half, the prices were already high due to sluggish production of mustard oil following the price trajectory of the last quarter of 2021. Later, in the second half, the price slipped as compared to the previous quarter owing to the early harvest of the mustard crop in mid-February, leading to sufficient supply. Also, the demand supply side of the market was normal owing to the stacked supply of the mustard oil previously imported from Russia. Toward the end of Q1 2022, the prices of Mustard oil were recorded to be INR 142500/ton (India).
Europe
In the first quarter of 2022, the market prices of mustard oil were hovering on the upper side. At the onset of the first half of Q1, the prices increased as the demand side exceeded the supply due to the resurgence of pandemic affecting the trade market and labor crisis. Unfavorable weather and restricted transportation led to increased freight charges, consequently increasing the market price of Mustard oil. At the beginning of the second half, the prices increased due to the Russia Ukraine conflict. The war crisis led to increased crude oil prices due to a supply crunch in the market following the increase in edible oil prices. Towards the end of Q1, the prices were recorded to be USD 1765/ton (Germany).
