For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In North America, mustard oil prices in Q1 2025 experienced moderate fluctuations, with the market initially seeing a slight increase in January. This rise was mainly attributed to steady demand from both industrial and retail sectors, which were bolstered by strong consumer preferences for mustard oil. Furthermore, supply constraints from key producing regions coupled with global market uncertainties contributed to upward pressure on prices. Despite these factors, the North American market remained relatively stable compared to other regions, with prices showing resilience due to ongoing local demand.
However, by February, price trends started to reverse as the market adjusted to the supply influx. A significant amount of mustard oil from Canadian and U.S. suppliers entered the market, easing previous supply tightness. This shift, along with weakened consumer demand after the January rush, led to a reduction in prices. The seasonal dip in consumption, combined with a reduction in speculative buying, further contributed to the downward trend.
By March, the market stabilized with prices remaining relatively flat, as the balance between supply and demand appeared to be restored. Although some challenges remained, including potential export fluctuations, the outlook for the North American mustard oil market was cautiously optimistic heading into the next quarter.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2025, India’s mustard oil market saw significant fluctuations in prices. January began with an upward trend, driven by a weak rupee, rising consumer demand, and limited supply. The depreciation of the Indian currency made imports more expensive, benefiting local traders with higher profit margins. Supply constraints, coupled with steady demand from both retail and industrial sectors, kept prices resilient despite fluctuating international edible oil prices.
However, in February 2025, the market experienced a sharp decline in prices. This was primarily due to an influx of mustard arrivals from key producing states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which increased supply and pressured prices downward. Additionally, consumers shifted to alternative edible oils, and speculative buying declined as buyers anticipated further price drops. Seasonal factors, with rising temperatures, also reduced mustard oil consumption.
By March, fresh crop arrivals from Haryana were expected, further adding to the supply glut. While the government's increase in Minimum Support Price (MSP) for mustard oil was aimed at boosting production, a decrease in sowing by 8% raised concerns for the long term. Overall, Q1 2025 ended with a correction in prices, which were expected to remain under pressure due to supply and demand dynamics, though further declines were seen as limited.
Europe
In Europe, the mustard oil market experienced a mixed price dynamic during Q1 2025. In January, prices increased, supported by consistent demand from both the industrial sector and retail consumption. The price hike was driven by rising raw material costs and the relative stability of local markets. However, European producers continued to face supply challenges, notably the growing pressure of import costs.
In February, a downward trend took hold of the European mustard oil market. The price decline was due to an influx of products from key producing regions, especially higher arrivals of mustard seeds from France and Spain. At the same time, consumer demand decreased due to rising temperatures and seasonality, contributing to a reduction in sales volumes.
By March, although the price decline continued, some stability returned to the market. Production expectations were moderate, with a more balanced supply, and prices began to stabilize, though they remained under constant pressure. The outlook for the European market in Q2 2025 suggested a cautious recovery, provided that production and consumption dynamics remained balanced.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
During Q4 2024, the mustard oil market in the USA experienced a period of steady price stability, driven by domestic consumption and market conditions. The demand for mustard oil firmed in October due to the seasonal increase in usage, particularly ahead of the festive season.
Strong consumption in regions with higher culinary traditions bolstered demand, with oil mills strategically increasing inventory in anticipation of winter needs. The favorable crop outlook, supported by good harvest conditions, provided confidence in supply. At the same time, elevated global edible oil prices and inflationary pressures helped sustain price levels, despite some external competition from other vegetable oils.
Traders remained cautious of potential risks such as weather disruptions affecting crop yields. Moving into November and December, prices showed resilience, supported by domestic production incentives and government policies aimed at stabilizing the market. However, the market remained sensitive to fluctuations in global oil prices and transportation costs, which influenced the overall pricing structure during the closing months of 2024.
Asia Pacific
Throughout Q4 2024, the Indian mustard oil market was influenced by a variety of factors that contributed to price fluctuations. In October, prices rose due to seasonal demand spikes driven by the festive season and oil mills’ strategic stockpiling in anticipation of winter. Increased consumption, especially in northern regions, was supported by favorable weather conditions for the upcoming Rabi crop and strong Kharif harvest yields. Additionally, shifts in government import policies redirected demand toward domestic oil production, strengthening mustard oil prices. Global inflationary pressures and rising edible oil prices further bolstered price stability. In November, despite steady demand, mustard seed prices saw a decline due to higher production and greater seed arrivals. The market faced external pressures from competing oilseeds and varying global demand, limiting price increases. Yet again in December, the oil prices showed a slight upward trend, particularly in northern states with higher winter demand. Price dynamics were shaped by harvest outcomes, transportation costs, and the influence of competing oils, alongside government policies supporting balanced pricing.
Europe
In Germany, the mustard oil market during Q4 2024 reflected a mix of seasonal demand increases and external market pressures. Prices in October saw a rise, driven by heightened consumption in the lead-up to the winter season. Regional demand in the northern parts, coupled with strong consumer trends, contributed to the price growth. Oil mills were active in stockpiling ahead of colder months, supported by favorable harvest conditions. The domestic mustard oil market benefitted from government initiatives aimed at reducing reliance on imports, with policies encouraging local production. This policy shift, along with rising global edible oil prices, strengthened mustard oil price resilience despite competition from other vegetable oils. In November, price growth slowed as international market factors, such as competing oilseed prices and global demand fluctuations, tempered any further increases. By December, prices exhibited slight upward movement, influenced by both modest rises in regional quotations and transportation cost surges. Overall, the market showed robustness, with favorable domestic policies and stable demand providing a foundation for continued market equilibrium despite external challenges.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, Mustard Oil prices exhibited a consistent upward trajectory, reflecting broader market trends within the APAC region. This price increase was primarily driven by a combination of factors influencing both supply and demand dynamics. Notably, regional demand from end-user sectors saw a steady rise, prompting importers to focus on maximizing inventory procurement.
In response to favorable market conditions and the potential for enhanced profitability, market participants strategically refined their pricing models to optimize profit margins and maintain competitiveness. This proactive stance was further bolstered by concurrent price increases in other edible oils, particularly palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, which helped sustain an optimistic outlook for Mustard Oil.
Additionally, with persistent rise in the freight cost provided a conducive environment for this price elevation for the entire quarter. Overall, the market sentiments throughout the quarter remained predominantly positive, with trading dynamics reflecting a robust upward trend. The interplay of rising demand, strategic inventory management, and favorable pricing developments across the edible oil sector illustrated the market’s adaptability to changing conditions.
Asia Pacific
Moving forward towards the Q3 2024, the Mustard Oil pricing in the APAC region remained stable, reflecting a consistent market sentiment. Various factors influence market prices, including stable demand, sufficient supply levels, and moderate input costs. In India, where the most substantial price changes were observed, the market experienced moderate fluctuations driven by seasonal trends and demand dynamics. The quarter saw a nearly around of 2% increase from the previous quarter, with prices remaining relatively unchanged between the first and second half of the quarter. This stability in pricing can be attributed to balanced market conditions and steady consumer demand. The steady surge in mandi prices incentivized farmers to boost their mustard production. Manufacturers, faced with higher procurement costs and limited import options, were forced to pass on these expenses to end-users. Overall, the pricing environment in India exhibited a positive trend, with prices settling at USD 1498.67/MT for Mustard Oil Ex-Agra at the end of the quarter. The correlation in price changes within the region highlighted a harmonious pricing landscape, emphasizing the resilience and equilibrium in the Mustard Oil market during Q3 2024.
Europe
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of mustard oil exhibited trends consistent with those in other global markets, notably North America, while the European market showcased notably optimistic developments. The initial uptick in purchasing activity, bolstered by a persistent rise in consumer confidence, ultimately led to a market correction that resulted in more sustainable pricing levels. This recalibration attracted new buyers, reinvigorating the overall demand for mustard oil. Moreover, currency fluctuations, though initially perceived as obstacles, presented opportunities for international traders to leverage favorable exchange rates, thereby stimulating cross-border trade. A concerted focus on destocking inventories contributed to a streamlined and more efficient supply chain, positioning the industry for future growth as the quarter progressed. Additionally, an increase in freight costs further fueled the upward trend in mustard oil exports and pricing across India, maintaining positive trading sentiments in the overall market. This convergence of demand reinvigoration, supply chain optimization, and logistical cost considerations effectively set the stage for a more competitive landscape for mustard oil on the international stage supporting an overall optimistic trajectory for the entire quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
Throughout the entirety of the second quarter of 2024, the prices of Mustard Oil mirrored market trends in the APAC region. The overall trend in the market was characterized by a steady price rise, driven by several key factors.
With a steady rise in regional demand from the end-user’s sector, the importers were focused on procuring the maximum inventories during the month which supported the overall price sure for Mustard oil as of April. However, as may commenced, the market witnessed an upside-down trajectory with prices dropped considerably. From a Supply-side perspective, the Mustard oil market has witnessed an adequate supply to cater to the demands of end-user industries such as pharmaceuticals, food, and preservatives. With low to moderate downstream purchasing sentiments dynamics have led suppliers and manufacturers to prioritize clearing existing inventories over further processing, influenced by high storage costs and declining market inquiries. As a result, the overall vegetable oil market remains sluggish, with falling prices impacting the supply-demand dynamics.
Moreover, moving forward towards the end of quarter, i.e., in June, the overall prices rebound yet steadily balancing the overall supply-demand side. In light of the favourable market conditions and the opportunity for improved profitability highlighted by a surge in new orders from end-user sectors, market participants have persistently refined their pricing strategies to maximize profit margins and uphold their competitiveness. Moreover, this rise was also supported by a price rise in other edible oils particularly, the palm oil, soybean and sunflower oils which further supported this optimistic trajectory during the month. This reflects a proactive response to prevailing market dynamics, aimed at maximizing returns amidst evolving demand patterns and eased supply pressures from the past month. Overall, the market sentiments throughout the quarter remained on the positive side with market trading sentiments being on the northerly side.
Asia Pacific
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for Mustard Oil in the APAC region exhibited a notable upward trajectory. Several critical factors influenced this surge, including heightened demand from end-users, currency fluctuations, and the bolstered costs of alternative edible oils. Additionally, geopolitical instabilities disrupted supply chains, further elevating prices. The quarter was characterized by robust economic activity across the region, with manufacturers passing on increased operational costs to consumers. Despite the planting season easing some pressure, the overall sentiment remained positive, with consistent price elevation throughout the quarter. Focusing specifically on India, which experienced the most significant price fluctuations, Mustard Oil prices demonstrated a clear increasing trend. Seasonal factors played a pivotal role, as the harvesting period augmented supply but was met with robust demand, resulting in a constrained market. The price changes were also influenced by the depreciation of the Indian Rupee against the US dollar, leading to higher import costs and, consequently, increased local prices for the downstream buyers. Additionally, the pricing dynamics were also affected by labor shortages and processing delays, further exacerbated by regional heatwaves impacting production efficiency. Overall, the percentage change from the previous quarter was recorded at -1%, indicating a decrease from Q1 to Q2 2024. However, a 1% increase was observed when comparing the first and second halves of Q2, reflecting a mid-quarter rebound. The latest quarter-ending price for Mustard Oil in India was USD 123000/MT. This quarter underscored a stable, yet upward pricing environment driven by multifaceted supply and demand dynamics, establishing an overall positive sentiment in the Mustard Oil market.
Europe
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, Mustard Oil pricing mirrored trends observed in other regions, particularly North America, with the European market displaying pronounced optimisitc tendencies. The improved purchasing activities and rising consumer confidence initially observed actually paved the way for a market correction, leading to more sustainable pricing levels. This adjustment attracted new buyers, reinvigorating demand. Additionally, the currency fluctuations, while initially challenging, created opportunities for savvy international traders to capitalize on favourable exchange rates, stimulating cross-border trade. The focus on destocking inventories led to a leaner, more efficient supply chain, positioning the industry for future growth in the middle of the quarter where the prices dropped steadily marking the weaken purchasing sentiments. However, by the end of the period, these factors converged to create a revitalized market with strengthened fundamentals, setting the stage for robust growth and increased market share for Mustard oil in the global edible oils sector. Sportingly, A rise in freight cost additionally had further fuel the overall upward trend in exports of mustard oil and its prices across the nation, keeping the overall market trading sentiments on the northerly side.
