For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
During the second quarter, the overall n-butanol market in the US remained weak as compared to the first quarter, which was influenced by the lower demand for the feedstock propylene market. The n-butanol market continued to follow the increasing trend till April amid tight supply. As per the data, the Industrial Production Total Index rose from 102.6 (March) to 103.1 (April), causing economic activities to improve. At the same time, the US has faced high-cost pressure due to the production cut. Moreover, positive demand for the downstream coating industry was observed, which has contributed to the further increase in prices for n-butanol in the US market as consumer spending in the country recorded an increase in new orders. However, the n-butanol demand saw negative buying sentiments amidst lower demand in the coating industry of the US, which has influenced the prices to continuously decrease and settle at 2252 USD/tonne n-butanol FOB New York during the end of May. Moreover, feedstock propylene prices have shown a significant decline of 10.8% from April to June.
Asia
An overall monthly upward trend has been observed during April 2023, owing to the recovery in the downstream operational activities. Due to the increased commodity prices, the Chinese market faced competitive pressure to meet the requirement, which has led the prices of n-butanol to grow due to the limited stock volume available. Nonetheless, Labour Day has also contributed to the significant rise in n-butanol prices during the first week of May. However, the sluggish downstream offers from the coating segment and cheaper imports from Asian countries led to negative sentiment among traders. Moreover, the feedstock propylene prices in China have significantly declined by 7.7% from May to June. Temporary prices rose during June due to Dragon Boat Festival, which has contributed to restricted tight spot flow of the product and influenced the prices to hover at 1030 USC/tonne n-butanol Spot Ex-Shandong. Before having a sharp drop, n-butanol prices were marginally increased in Japan to settle at 1679 USD/tonne CFR Osaka.
Europe
The average pricing trend of n-butanol during the second quarter in the European market remained marginally weak compared to the first quarter, which is demand driven from feedstock propylene prices. However, a minimal upward price trend was observed during April 2023, amid subsided destocking in the European market. The finite availability of stocks and lower demand from the downstream coating industry limited the export, which has contributed to the overall upward momentum price trend in the German market. As per the data, Production in Industry-Manufacturing in Germany rose from 97.5 (March) to 97.6 (April), influencing the economic activities to be higher for April. Widely fluctuating crude oil prices and supply tightness influenced the overall pricing dynamics of n-butanol. On the contrary, stabilized downstream demand from the coating industry and surplus domestic supply contributed towards the downtrend of the n-butanol market to settle at 1843 USD/tonne n-butanol FD Hamburg during May. Due to the lower demand for feedstock propylene, BASF in Germany went into maintenance turnaround for two weeks in June, which has affected the overall pricing trend of n-butanol.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The n-butanol prices were overall on the downward side in the USA in March 2023, backed by the unchanged demand from the coating industry, and the new orders continued to fall along with sluggish export inquiries as high-interest rates and surging inflationary pressures hit demand. However, in March 2023, the n-Butanol prices showed a marginal surge as the manufacturers opted for a reduction in the production rates amid a drop in the input-buying activities in the US market this month in the face of high inflation. The operational activities were average, and the production run rates remained at reduced levels, as producers opted to moderate the effects of the limited buying appetite and elevated the n-Butanol prices slightly. Additionally, the n-Butanol price movement was affected by the global inactive demand and pricing fundamentals throughout the Q1 of 2023.
APAC
Due to the lack of downstream demand from the paint and textile industries, n-Butanol prices have not witnessed any significant change throughout the Q1 of 2023 in the APAC region and maintained a downward trend. Moreover, the slowdown in the downstream operational rates and the oversupply of the feedstock propylene had an impact on the pricing of n-butanol and conclusively reduced producer profitability. Market participants destocked inventories at lower margins as a result of the economy's delayed recovery. In conclusion, at the termination of March 2023, n-Butanol prices saw a monthly decline of 2.0% as a result of weakening new orders and the global bearish market situation for n-Butanol.
Europe
The pricing trend for n-Butanol in the European market remained low throughout the first quarter of 2023 due to narrowed cost pressure, as the production costs in the exporting nations remained steady. Following shipment delays due to industrial strikes in the European countries, raw material propylene prices fell in the producing nations, and demand sentiment among consumers declined. The producers negatively updated their price attempts to increase raw material offtakes and reduced the input costs of n-Butanol production. Additionally, the product offtakes by downstream phthalate makers remained moderate in the quarter ending March 2023. Meanwhile, European enterprises felt provoking wide uncertainty as OPEC announced a crude oil production cut at the termination of March 2023, which might further impact the April discussions of n-Butanol.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
The n-Butanol prices slipped in the quarter ending December 2022, backed by the lower demand from the downstream paints & coating industry and uncertainty in the upstream crude oil values due to the limited availability of stocks in the US market. As the upstream crude oil and petrochemical prices declined this quarter, the supply started surpassing the demand from the paint manufacturers and the country's automotive sector in mid-November 2022. The muted overseas offers, coupled with the lower domestic market, have contributed to the downturn in the prices of the commodity in the fourth quarter of 2022. The ongoing supply chain disruptions and rising recessionary fears dampened the downstream automotive industry demand for n-Butanol in the United States this quarter. Thus, the price of n-Butanol was quoted at USD 2630/MT FOB New York (USA) in December 2022.
APAC
The n-Butanol prices in the APAC region witnessed mixed market sentiments in the quarter ending December 2022. The n-Butanol prices surged in December 2022, bolstered by the upward feedstock Propylene costs and limited availability of inventories in the Chinese market. The trading activity slumped due to persisting COVID curbs, and manufacturers were seeking to destock the piled-up stocks, prompting price competitiveness among the market players in the mid-quarter. The volatility in the upstream global crude oil values due to constrained supplies in the market during the fourth quarter of 2022 impacted the pricing dynamics of n-Butanol. The price of n-Butanol was assessed at USD 1075/MT CFR-Qingdao (China) in December 2022.
Europe
The prices of n-Butanol witnessed a downward trend in the quarter ending December 2022, with declining demand in the automotive sector in the European market. The lower feedstock Propylene prices supported the ease in the n-Butanol input costs amidst crippled Russian supplies of upstream Crude oil in the region. The European market's weak consumer confidence due to elevated energy costs, soaring inflation, and a slumped economic outlook weighed on the trading activities across the regional market this quarter. The n-Butanol market players remained concerned about contracting economic conditions and growth prospects and made sales at lower profit margins amidst the fear of piling stocks at the year's end. Thus, the price of n-Butanol prices assessed at USD 2439/MT throughout December 2022.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
n-Butanol price trajectory remained stable during the third quarter, with a month-on-month increase of 2%, backed by the increasing petrochemical feedstock costs in the country amidst elevated demand from European importers in August 2022 and high upstream input cost pressure on the product's pricing dynamics. This quarter's volatility in natural gas costs raised the variable cost pressure on the commodity. On the demand side, the new orders from the downstream paints and coating from the construction sector were lower than in the previous quarter for the product. Meanwhile, US trade activities were subdued in September 2022 due to the congestion at Felixstowe and Liverpool port due to wages dispute. As a ripple effect, it affected the cargo momentum of N-Butanol during the Q3 of 2022.
Asia
The n-Butanol pricing dynamics showed mixed sentiments during the third quarter of 2022, backed by the volatility in the upstream crude oil prices and uncertain demand fundamentals. The price trend of n-Butanol persisted in Japan during the first half of this quarter, backed by the stability in the domestic offers amid sufficient availability of the product inventories. Moreover, the imports of n-Butanol decreased in the country, and regional exporters diminished their price quotations to improve product offtakes. However, the tension between China and Taiwan changed the market dynamics at the termination of August. N-Butanol prices took a steep rise in September, owing to the high upstream energy values and shortage of inventories due to regional supply disturbances.
Europe
The price trend of n-Butanol shifted in Germany during the third quarter of 2022, and product prices rose marginally by 2.7% in August. An increase in Natural gas costs due to uncertain gas supplies from Gazprom Russia impacted the production rates and caused pressure on the manufacturers and traders. Meanwhile, transportation costs rose swiftly in the regional market, increasing variable cost pressure. Additionally, the ships were sailing with reduced cargo loads due to decrement in the water levels of the Rhine River at the termination of August. Moreover, worsened effects of port congestion on the European supply routes have caused stress for commodity market players at the end of the third quarter of 2022.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
Following the previous quarter's trend, the price trend of n-Butanol remained steady, and product prices rose consistently throughout the Q2 of 2022, indicating a quarterly upsurge of 15.5% from the previous quarter. At the beginning of the quarter, prices surged substantially due to a boost in feed Propylene and upstream Naphtha prices. Then the monthly increment was slighter, and n-Butanol prices rose marginally till the end of the quarter. North America is the largest producer of EV automobiles globally, and plasticizers are produced mainly for the region's construction and EV automotive industries, so demand for n Butanol Oxo alcohol remained consistent in the phthalate and paint solvent manufacturers.
Asia
In the Asian region, the price n-Butanol was see-sawing as in China, the prices dwindled quarterly by almost 5%, whereas in India, the values inclined upward by 5.3%. Due to significant fluctuations in the petrochemical market and feed propylene caused by global inflation and supply disruption. Increased Russian Crude oil imports in the region negatively impacted the petrochemical prices and decreased the product costs in the 1st half of Q2. However, prices increased marginally in the mid-quarter, then reduced towards the end of quarter two due to a significant reduction in upstream costs in the region and uncertain demand from the plasticizer manufacturers.
Europe
The price trend of n-Butanol fluctuated substantially during Quarter 2 of 2022, and the price of n-Butanol rose by 25.5% from the previous quarter. At the beginning of the quarter, upstream costs increased dramatically post inflation and decreased Crude oil supplies in the region, which caused an upsurge of 20% in the first half of the quarter. However, values marginally reduced in the mid-quarter due to contraction in downstream phthalate and paint industry demand for oxo alcohols. Then, prices rose marginally towards the end of Q2 due to an escalation in the region's energy and fuel costs and boosted product values.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
There was an upward surge in the price of n-Butanol in the first quarter of 2022 because of increased demand due to growing consumption from the downstream sectors like plastics, polymers, and lubricants. The price of n-butanol for the US towards the end of the quarter surged to USD 2680/ton FOB New York. Increased freight charges along with container shortage further elevated the prices. The market growth was primarily attributed to high demand for n-Butanol in the formulation of butyl acrylate, butyl acetate, and its use as a direct solvent.
Asia Pacific
A fluctuation was observed in the price of Oxo Alcohol with an upward trend in February with stabilization in prices towards the end of the quarter in the Chinese market. China saw a variation in prices due to plant turnaround by the majority of Oxo-alcohol producers in the North-eastern regions because of the Covid situation, which recovered in March by adopting a cautious stance by the Chinese government. In China, the price of n-Butanol towards the end of the quarter was observed to be USD 1720/ton Spot Ex- Shangdong. The production of oxo-alcohols has strengthened in Q1 as the availability and prices of upstream crude oil increased due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which translated into increased operating rates and, therefore reduced price in the first half of the quarter.
Europe
In Europe, the price of n-Butanol rose in Q1, 2022 due to increasing end-stream demands for oxo alcohol, especially in Germany, which was used in synthetic rubber, food additives, and brake fluids, compared to Q4 of 2021. In March, the price of n-Butanol in Germany surged to USD 2870/ton FD Hamburg. A surge in upstream propylene and ethylene oxide prices due to the Russian invasion in Ukraine led to escalating costs of n-Butanol. Tight supply in the oxo alcohol and decreasing inventories instigated soaring prices of n-Butanol. The growth of construction industry, in emerging industries with increasing demand, rapid urbanization and industrialization is propelling the demand for n-Butanol.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
Overall stability was witnessed for Oxo Alcohols throughout the fourth quarter of 2021 across USA. Despite of key players heard raising their offers in order to sustain their profit margin, as input cost was rising exponentially. During the month of November, Crude price fell sharply during Asian trading with ICE Brent future falling amid heightening concern of oversupply of crude oil and rising fears over COVID related uncertainties. As the upstream prices declined, the supply started exceeding the demand from the country’s paint manufacturers.Consequently, during December, price dynamics was changed and that change in price dynamics was very marginal and traders marked overall price stability for the product in the US market. Thus, n-Butanol prices stood around USD 2490/MT FOB during the mid of November.
Asia
Slow offtakes and low upstream cost induced cost dullness for major acrylates across Asian market during Q1 2021. Despite Indian and Chinese market dynamics varied with respective domestic factors, price trajectory remained similar for both economies. Demand fundamentals for acrylates varied country over country in APAC region. South Korean demand for Acrylates remained buoyant compared to previous quarters, as import as well as domestic production improved effectively. Consumption across Indian market remained healthy under festivities, while China remained dull inline with low production rate due to dual energy policies. Conclusively, prices of Oxo Alcohols declined effectively while n-Butanol stood around USD 1610/MT CFR during November in South Asia.
Europe
European market witnessed frequent ups and down throughout Q4 2021 on the back of changing market dynamics. However, during first month of the quarter key players heard revising their offers from October onwards, high energy and raw material cost remained prime factors behind this price hike. However, wavering demand induced dullness across regional market, which led to a significant fall in price of n-Butanol during November. Further, n-Butanol price climbed up marginally during December, despite of bearish market sentiments and hovered around USD 2025/MT during December in North-western Europe.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The prices of n-Butanol rose effectively in the North American region during Q3 2021 followed by consistent demand from the downstream paints and coatings industries. The production of oxo-alcohols has strengthened in the 3rd quarter as the availability of raw materials improved which translated into increased operating rates and therefore, improved production across the region. Pricing remained on an upper note due to high energy rates and tightness in the global market. FOB Texas price of n-Butanol was noted around to $2380/mt in July. However, increased rates of raw materials have been a key factor that drove the strong prices for all oxo-Alcohols including n-Butanol throughout the quarter.
Asia Pacific
The domestic market outlook of n-Butanol witnessed an upward trajectory in the Asia Pacific region during the third quarter of 2021. The demand remained firm throughout the quarter from various downstream industries including Butyl Acetate and paint and coatings. In India, prices observed a significant hike during the month of July, in the effect of recovered demand from the regional market. Ex-works Kandla (India) prices escalated from USD 2131 to USD 2261 per MT from July to September. Post pandemic recovery lifted the demand for n-Butanol from the downstream derivatives manufacturers across Asia. The pricing trend of n-Butanol was reported rising in the Asian markets due to the surging demand and scarcity of raw materials.
Europe
In the European region, the supplies of n-Butanol ushered a steady improvement in the third quarter of 2021. Demand remained persistent from the downstream industries in this quarter as well. Offtakes were consistent from the automotive and construction sector along with the downstream butyl acrylate and several other paints and coatings manufacturers during the quarter. Some plant turnarounds led to constrained availability of product towards the end of Q3.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
The supplies of n-Butanol (NBA) in the North American region remained tight in the second quarter of 2021, even though some easiness in the supply conditions was observed due to improved plant operating rates in Q2. The supply chain improved with the return of several producing belts online and n-Butanol enquiries were bolstered from the downstream paints and coatings manufacturing industries. Offtakes were exceptional from the derivatives such as Butyl Acetate while raw material Propylene continued to remain firm. Strong demand, which surpassed the regional supply capacity resulted in continuous up stride on the pricing trend with FOB Texas discussion in June settled at USD 2305 per tonne.
Asia Pacific
During the second quarter of 2021, supplies of n-Butanol (NBA) in the Asia Pacific region were tight owing to the reduced offtakes from the downstream manufacturing industries. The demand outlook in India was dented due to sudden rise in COVID cases which subdued the market activities. hence, the buyers were reluctant to procure the commodity amidst the hovering uncertainties throughout the first half of the quarter. China reported firm n-Butanol pricing due to tight Propylene market. While demand outlook is firmed from various downstream Butyl Acetate and paint and coating sector. The pricing trend in India slumped in the second quarter with Ex-Works Kandla (India) discussions were assessed at USD 2045 per tonne in June while FOB Qingdao (China) offers were prices at USD 2380 per tonne in mid-June. Longer lead times are further causing worries to the suppliers.
Europe
In the European region, n-Butanol (NBA) supplies were constrained during the first half of the quarter, as the major production plant of BASF (Germany) and Sasol were on a force majeure. Later, the condition improved alongside better import volumes from the US and Middle East. Demand was persistent from the downstream industries as accelerated vaccine roll outs, recovering downstream markets and public movement generated positive economic outlook. Therefore, n-Butanol offtakes were surged from the automotive and construction sector.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
During Q1 2021, n-Butanol supplies were tight, as mid-February freeze fallout in the US Gulf region triggered feedstock shortages which further concluded in steep surge in the prices of the product. The demand from the downstream automotive and construction coatings surged causing shortages in domestic supplies, hence the buyers diverted their attention towards imports from Asian countries. Translating the effects of transportation constraints and Propylene shortage, several manufacturers announced positive price correction during the quarter. OQ chemicals surged the prices of n-Butanol by USD 110 USD/MT in February for all its the March deliveries.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
The supplies of n-Butanol were short in Q1 2021 owing to several plant shutdowns heard across the globe. During the middle of the quarter, the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays and decline in overseas imports propped up the regional NBA offers. In southeast Asia, BASF Petronas and Indonesia’s PT PON remained shut for maintenance. The demand stood healthy as the buyers sought for restocking activity due to buoyant demand for Butyl Acetate and Butyl Acrylate manufacturing. Combination of factors resulted in multi-fold surge in the prices of n-Butanol. CFR India prices gained by USD 880/ton in Q1-2021, whereas the CFR prices for March recorded at USD 2030/ton in India.
Europe
n-Butanol supplies in the European region remained tight during the first quarter of 2021, as the key producer BASF remained non-operational since the end of the second quarter. The supply shortness was further instigated by reduced imports from the US. Strong offtakes were reported from the downstream butyl acrylate manufacturing and several other paints and coatings manufacturer. Several manufacturers were heard operating at reduced run rates in the second half of the quarter due to tight propylene supply.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
North America
By the third quarter, n-Butanol demand regained the lost uptrend with consumers starting residential construction and resuming delayed downstream projects. On an average, volumes produced stayed below year-ago levels but improved on QoQ basis as coronavirus restrictions eased early in the period. Increased raw material prices and constrained availability due the product outages at several oxo-alcohol production facilities in early-August which were resolved by the first half of September kept the prices afloat. The US’ n-Butanol pricing graph showed an upward trend in October with prices assessed around USD 890 per tonne in September with producers targeting better margins in Q4.
Asia
Asia’s n-Butanol market witnessed increasing demand from the downstream sectors during Q3 with import discussions gradually picking up particularly in northeast Asia. Growing economies such as China and India are adding up new capacities due to swelling n-Butanol demand for end-use applications such as manufacturing of butyl acetate, butyl acrylate, glycol ether, and direct solvents. However, the supply for n-Butanol remained tight during Q3 due to plant turnrounds observed in far east Asia. Producers in countries like China and Taiwan were heard operating at lower rates with minimum workforce which limited feedstock availability and hence irregular supply was witnessed in these regions. However, demand remained stable in China unlike others Asian counties in 2020 with large capacity additions and reduced export volumes.
Europe
The n-Butanol supply remained steady during the Q3 while the demand showed a marked uptrend as the offtakes from the downstream coatings and plasticizers gained momentum with trade volumes showing considerable month-on-month increase. While coronavirus restrictions eased early in the quarter, rising cases kept some limitations in place in the anticipated growth. Unplanned production issues prevailing on the feedstock front kept some run rates curtailed, creating uneven market recovery despite sturdy demand growth.
