For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North American n-Methyl Aniline market showcased fluctuation throughout the second quarter of 2023 on the back of an uncertain market outlook and fluctuating feedstock prices. As per the market sources, demand fundamentals for multiple commodities in the US market kept on changing due to blurry crude futures and never-ending hikes in interest rates in the country. Furthermore, supplies for the product were observed to be stable where minor hiccups in availability were observed during the mid of the quarter, affecting the price trend for a short period of time. Going further, production costs also remained one of the major drivers for the rising price trend, which escalated during May and eased down a bit in June 2023. At the same time, the economic slowdown was a key concern for the domestic players, as shown by FRED, Producer Price Index for Industrial Chemicals traced a downward trajectory continuously for all three months, settling around 309.771 in June 2023 falling from 328.277 in April 2023. Thus, market participants were anxious regarding the future demand scenarios of the country.
The Asian market has witnessed an overall uptrend for n-Methyl Aniline throughout the second quarter of 2023. After witnessing a significant fall during the final month of last quarter, n-Methyl Aniline prices rebound in April and sustained this uptrend continue till the end of the quarter. It was observed that n-Methyl Aniline prices in India rose by around 11% during this quarter and assessed around USD 2560/MT during May 2023. A short-term shortage in spot availability remained the key factor behind this steep rise in prices. Further, this price hike was primarily influenced by expensive imports from the regional key players. n-Methyl Aniline prices sustained an uptrend throughout the quarter owing to consistently improving demand fundamentals amidst moderate availability of the product. Indian market had been performing better than many other economies, while global major economies had faced a threat of recession, India was one of those countries who have zero possibility of a recession. Demand from the octane booster segment remained moderate to high during this period, as almost all the economic activities were performing efficiently.
The European market has been battling with low demand and high inflation for a long time, during this quarter n-Methyl Aniline market did not remain untouched. Market sources revealed that the demand fundamentals for n-Methyl Aniline had been low since the start of the quarter, which led to a consistent dullness in procurement activities and eventually resulted in a decline in the prices of the commodities. The data shows a consistent and sharp decline in feedstock methanol prices in the European market during this quarter, affecting the prices of downstream derivatives including n-Methyl Aniline. Further, regional trade activities have also been affected by internal issues like violence in France and drought condition Mississippi River which affected the overall supply chain. The data released by Eurostat show that the Producer Price Index (PPI, Industry) of the region declined from 138.3 (April 2023) to 136.3 (May 2023) proving that under the influence of low demand, prices have been falling across the regional market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
Q1 2023 was heard to be injecting uncertainties in the prices of several commodities, including N-Methyl Aniline, in the North American market. As per the data, N-Methyl Aniline prices kept on oscillating throughout the quarter on a biweekly basis, while raw material prices also showcased mixed sentiments, together resisting any significant growth in the prices of the product. Raw material Aniline prices were observed to be rising throughout this timeframe, while another raw material, Methanol, fluctuated month over a monthly basis. Further, the US economy was under the dark clouds of the fear of recession and rising inflation in the country, which was resisting any significant growth in demand for commodities in the country.
In March 2023, despite seasonal demand, prices of N-Methyl Aniline for downstream industries in India remained low due to low demand in the international market. Supply remained moderate while global freight charges declined, affecting the prices of imported commodities. In February 2023, N-Methyl Aniline prices rose due to the hit of seasonal demand from downstream industries in India, which performed better than many major economies. Supply remained stable, and expensive imports drove the price trend. Demand was high, and it is expected to rise further in the coming months due to the better performance of downstream industries in the absence of any threat of recession.
The European market remained dull throughout the first quarter of 2023 owing to prolonged market steadiness amidst stockpiled products in the region. As per the data, feedstock methanol and aniline prices witnessed a significant fall during the first half of the quarter, leading to an ease in prices of downstream commodities, including N-Methyl Aniline. Despite some supply chain disturbances caused by snow, supplies remained stable to firm, and the narrow demand-supply gap supported a downward price trend. Additionally, the low risk of a recession generated hope for future months, which might help prices to rebound.
The North American N-Methyl Aniline market had a strong beginning to the fourth quarter of 2022; its prices rose significantly at the start of the quarter before falling as the end of the quarter drew closer. The N-Methyl Aniline prices increased in October, only to decline consistently in the following two months. Because of shifts in downstream demand from various industries, the market price of N-Methyl Aniline fluctuated. Throughout the quarter, the demand for N-Methyl Aniline in the domestic market remained inconsistent because of the unstable market circumstances for the downstream fertilizer industry. Furthermore, the N-Methyl Aniline market's growth over the course of the quarter and market pricing were both impacted by fluctuating manufacturing costs and fluctuating upstream costs.
The fourth quarter of 2022 saw a great start for the N-Methyl Aniline market in the Asia-Pacific region; its prices increased significantly at the beginning of the quarter before declining towards the second half of the quarter. Prices for N-Methyl Aniline rose in October before steadily falling over the next two months. The market price of N-Methyl Aniline changed due to changes in downstream demand from different sectors. Because of the erratic market conditions for the downstream fertilizer industry during the quarter, there was intermittent demand for N-Methyl Aniline in the domestic market. Furthermore, changes in product prices and changes in upstream costs also had an impact on the growth of the N-Methyl Aniline market during the quarter, as well as market pricing.
Like North America and APAC, the fourth quarter of 2022 had a great start for the European N-Methyl Aniline market as well. As the end of the quarter approached, its value began to decline. In October, prices for N-Methyl Aniline rose, but during the next two months, they steadily fell. N-Methyl Aniline's market price changed due to changes in downstream demand from different sectors. Due to the inconsistent market conditions for the downstream fertilizer industry during the quarter, demand for N-Methyl Aniline in the domestic market remained uneven. In addition, shifting production costs and shifting upstream costs had an impact on the N-Methyl Aniline market's growth throughout the quarter and market pricing.