For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Naphtha Price Index fell by 4.27% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting inventory overhang pressures.
• The average Naphtha price for the quarter was approximately USD 478.67/MT, based on FOB Texas assessments.
• Naphtha Spot Price weakened as crackers preferred ethane, increasing prompt supply and depressing export arbitrage.
• The Naphtha Price Forecast indicates near-term softness due to high inventories and limited arbitrage opportunities.
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend remained subdued as crude and NGL feedstock costs held steady overall.
• Naphtha Demand Outlook muted with crackers favoring ethane and seasonal gasoline blending reducing naphtha pull.
• Naphtha Price Index movements reflected refinery runrate swings, port logistics stability, and shifting gas-nap spreads.
• Export weakness and European cracker underperformance constrained trans-Atlantic flows, keeping Naphtha prices range-bound in December.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in December 2025 in North America?
• Steam crackers preferring ethane reduced naphtha feed demand, increasing spot availability and pressuring FOB prices.
• High Gulf Coast refinery runs maintained ample straight-run naphtha output, swelling inventories and limiting offers.
• Seasonal gasoline blending eased, while narrow arbitrage reduced export urgency, collectively weighing on FOB Naphtha.
APAC
• In Japan, the Naphtha Price Index fell by 3.29% quarter-over-quarter, driven by tariff cuts and demand.
• The average Naphtha price for the quarter was approximately USD 568.33/MT, reflecting freight-related import parity.
• Naphtha Spot Price softened as ample imports, neutral freight and LPG substitution reduced buying interest.
• Naphtha Price Forecast indicates limited upside absent crude firming or regional refinery outages increasing tightness.
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend was mixed as lower crude offset higher electricity and freight surcharges.
• Naphtha Demand Outlook remains subdued with soft polymer orders though seasonal packaging provided limited support.
• Naphtha Price Index movements reflected comfortable inventories, intermittent export flows, and occasional prompt supply draws.
• Spot Price sensitivity to LR1 freight and splitter buying influenced short term offers and volumes.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Import tariff cut reduced landed costs and encouraged sellers to lower offers, pressuring Japan naphtha prices.
• Elevated electricity and LNG costs squeezed cracker margins, moderating incremental naphtha buying despite steady run rates.
• Comfortable inventories and neutral freight lowered urgency for spot purchases, amplifying downward Price Index momentum.
Europe
• In Germany, the Naphtha Price Index fell by 2.94% quarter-over-quarter, weaker feedstock and demand conditions.
• The average Naphtha price for the quarter was approximately USD 540.00/MT, reported by importers terminals.
• Naphtha Spot Price remained rangebound amid balanced supply, stable freight, and moderate downstream purchasing activity.
• Naphtha Price Forecast expects limited volatility as crude stability and inventories restrain stronger directional moves.
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend eased after softer crude, reducing immediate upward pressure on CIF differentials.
• Naphtha Demand Outlook remains moderate with restrained polymer demand limiting restocking and sustained subdued consumption.
• Inventory levels Hamburg and ARA hubs support seller competition, limiting upward movement in Price Index.
• Export arbitrage to Asia, steady throughput reduced German premia, keeping spot and CIF offers contained.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Lower crude feedstock and narrower propane spreads reduced production cost support, weakening buying interest materially.
• Adequate import flows, normal port operations and healthy terminal inventories limited upward pricing pressure period.
• Soft downstream polymer demand and muted cracker restocking reduced spot demand, keeping CIF levels neutral.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Naphtha Price Index fell by 3.48% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting ample refinery output.
• The average Naphtha price for the quarter was approximately USD 526.67/MT, per weekly FOB assessments.
• Weak Asian buying pressured the Naphtha Spot Price, reflecting muted cracker run-rates and export competition.
• Near-term Naphtha Price Forecast indicates modest volatility, with supply balance and crude direction as determinants.
• Stable utility tariffs and feedstock availability moderated the Naphtha Production Cost Trend, limiting upward pressure.
• Naphtha Demand Outlook remains cautious as propane competitiveness and Asian cracker margins dictate selective procurement.
• Ample Saudi export length and smooth logistics kept the Naphtha Price Index range-bound despite intermittent buying.
• Operational continuity at major Saudi plants sustained steady flows, constraining upside in regional spot and term markets.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in December 2025 in MEA?
• High domestic refinery runs and ample inventories flooded export pools, exerting sustained downward pressure on prices.
• Narrowing propane-naphtha spreads briefly revived Asian buying, slightly improving prompt demand for Saudi FOB parcels.
• Reduced war-risk premiums, efficient port operations, and stable tariffs lowered seller risk premia, narrowing price support.
South America
• In Brazil, the Naphtha Price Index fell by 6.37% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting domestic supply and ethanol blending.
• The average Naphtha price for the quarter was approximately USD 440.67/MT, on an EXW basis.
• Naphtha Spot Price weakened as crude eased and refinery yields increased, pressuring premiums and liquidity.
• Naphtha Price Forecast indicates near-term softness driven by elevated import flows and policy-induced demand shifts.
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend eased with lower crude, narrowing refinery margins and reducing supplier offers.
• Naphtha Demand Outlook remained subdued as cracker run-rates dropped and propane discounts curtailed naphtha offtake.
• Naphtha Price Index was pressured by higher ethanol blending mandates and contractual inflows enlarging supply.
• Naphtha Spot Price volatility reflected freight parity, terminal inventories, and limited arbitrage into Brazil markets.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in December 2025 in South America?
• Stronger import parity and higher crude lifted landed offers, tightening effective domestic availability during December.
• Policy changes increasing ethanol blending and contractual inflows expanded merchant supply, pressuring ex-works prices locally.
• Lower cracker utilisation and LPG discounts reduced naphtha demand, transmitting weakness into the Price Index.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Naphtha Price Index fell by 2.22% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softer crude arbitrage.
• The average Naphtha price for the quarter was USD 500.00/MT, supported by steady Gulf refinery.
• Naphtha Spot Price movements tracked crude; Naphtha Price Index highlighted weaker export arbitrage and volatility.
• Naphtha Price Forecast indicates upside risk from gasoline blending, refined product cracks and crude support.
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend reflected feedstock linkage to crude, causing margin pressure amid refinery throughput.
• Naphtha Demand Outlook stayed mixed: steady petrochemical offtake offset by weaker Asian export buying overall.
• The Naphtha Price Index reflected balanced inventories, firm export programs, and selective spot cargo competition.
• Major Gulf refiners ran steadily, limiting outages and keeping Naphtha supply available for nearby exporters.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in September 2025 in North America?
• Lower crude reduced feedstock costs, easing export netbacks and pressuring Naphtha values across Gulf markets.
• Steady refinery runs maintained supply, while hurricane season risk and freight dynamics altered arbitrage flows.
• Weak Asian and European demand softened international bids, offsetting domestic petrochemical support for Naphtha values.
APAC
• In Japan, the Naphtha Price Index rose by 2.26% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting firmer regional feedstock dynamics.
• The average Naphtha price for the quarter was approximately USD 587.67/MT, based on CFR Tokyo.
• Naphtha Spot Price volatility reflected mixed freight, yen depreciation, and supply tightness across Tokyo terminals.
• Moderate domestic demand supported Naphtha Demand Outlook despite softer export pull and controlled inventory strategies.
• Naphtha Price Forecast indicates modest gains driven by crude strength and elevated cracker utilization rates.
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend tracked Brent and condensate, with currency shifts amplifying landed cost pressures.
• The Naphtha Price Index displayed intermittent weekly swings, but overall maintained cautious upward seasonal bias.
• Balanced tank stocks and smooth Tokyo port operations limited buying, tempering Naphtha Price Index spikes.
• Export demand recovery and selective cracker restarts underpin regional offtake, supporting CFR Naphtha quotes periodically.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Crude volatility and OPEC+ output adjustments raised landed costs, pressuring Naphtha supply-demand balances in September.
• Geopolitical incidents reduced Russian refinery runs, tightening feedstock flows and elevating prompt Naphtha premiums regionally.
• Eased intra-Asia freight and steady imports cushioned price rises, while robust cracker demand increased consumption.
Europe
• In Germany, the Naphtha Price Index fell by 2.51% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softer downstream demand conditions.
• The average Naphtha price for the quarter was approximately USD 556.33/MT per CIF Hamburg reports.
• Naphtha Spot Price remained range-bound, with the Naphtha Price Index showing limited volatility amid imports.
• Naphtha Price Forecast indicates modest upside risk as crude support and logistical frictions tighten availability.
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend tracks Brent movements, keeping delivered CIF values supported despite balanced inventories.
• Naphtha Demand Outlook is mixed as cracker run variances and polymer grade divergence temper offtake.
• Naphtha Price Index movements were constrained by ample inventories, low offtake and limited export arbitrage.
• Terminal delays and inland rail disruptions tightened effective availability, supporting CIF offers despite subdued demand.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Logistics bottlenecks and rail delays reduced terminal throughput, tightening availability and elevating CIF realizations.
• Slight crude firmness increased production costs, transmitting into higher naphtha cost base for buyers.
• Mixed downstream demand and selective cracker restarts produced uneven offtake, constraining sustained price momentum.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Naphtha Price Index rose by 2.25% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting crude support and exports
• The average Naphtha price for the quarter was approximately USD 545.67/MT, reflecting FOB trade consistently
• Naphtha Spot Price showed volatility driven by Brent movements, supply tightened by refinery run cuts
• Naphtha Price Forecast indicates modest upside term, supported by seasonal Asian demand and refinery maintenance
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend tracks crude, with crude elevating cost base and squeezing cracker margins
• Naphtha Demand Outlook remains regionally mixed as Asian cracker restarts offset weaker European polymer consumption
• Naphtha Price Index movements reflected inventory buffers and export programs China, Japan, and Southeast Asia
• Refinery operations in Saudi Arabia remained stable, enabling reliable FOB loadings and limiting short-term price shocks
Why did the price of Naphtha change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Crude oil softened in September, reducing feedstock cost support and exerting downward pressure on FOB values
• Saudi crude exports to China fell, tightening refinery feedstock and lowering naphtha yields, lifting FOB scarcity
• Regional inventory builds and moderated downstream demand balanced upward pressure, keeping Naphtha Price Index range-bound
South America
• In Brazil, the Naphtha Price Index fell by 9.31% quarter-over-quarter, driven by weaker crude imports.
• The average Naphtha price for the quarter was approximately USD 470.67/MT, reflecting EXW Rio de Janeiro market.
• Naphtha Spot Price volatility narrowed mid-quarter as domestic refinery throughput and inventories moderated market reactions.
• Naphtha Price Forecast projects mild upside near-term, contingent on crude recovery and limited import cargoes.
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend showed softer feedstock costs mid-quarter, though FX pressures sustained import premiums.
• Naphtha Demand Outlook remains cautious as petrochemical offtake was subdued, with converters maintaining hand-to-mouth purchasing.
• Naphtha Price Index movements reflected tight terminal stocks late September, constraining spot tonnes for export.
• Refinery maintenance and pre-salt condensate shortfalls intermittently tightened supply, supporting near-term Naphtha Price Index resilience.
Why did the price of Naphtha change in September 2025 in South America?
• Reduced crude benchmarks lowered feedstock costs, but local FX depreciation kept imported naphtha relatively expensive.
• Terminal stocks fell below comfort bands, creating short-cover dynamics that tightened prompt Naphtha availability regionally.
• Domestic petrochemical demand softened amid cautious downstream buying, reducing sustained offtake despite occasional refinery disruptions.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Naphtha Price Index (FOB Texas) recorded a quarterly decline of -3.2% in Q2 2025, closing July near USD 624/tonne, with diminished regional demand from steam crackers and limited gasoline blending activity.
• Why did the price of Naphtha change in July 2025?
The price of Naphtha in July dipped due to weaker crude oil benchmarks and limited recovery in the petrochemical sector amid soft gasoline margins.
• Domestic production remained steady, but inventories were high, pressuring spot prices.
• No significant logistics disruptions were reported, with FOB operations from Texas ports proceeding smoothly.
• Naphtha Demand Outlook for Q3 suggests a modest uptick as refiners anticipate stronger gasoline blending needs heading into late summer, but petrochemical pull remains capped.
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend was slightly downward, aided by cheaper crude feedstock, but margins remain narrow.
• The Naphtha Spot Price is expected to hover within a stable range of USD 620–640/tonne FOB Texas in Q3, barring major crude disruptions.
Europe
• The Naphtha Price Index (FOB Rotterdam) dropped by -2.8% in Q2 2025, with prices averaging around USD 671/tonne in July.
• Why did the price of Naphtha change in July 2025?
Prices weakened in July due to easing Brent crude levels and sluggish demand from European olefin producers, especially as regional crackers operated at reduced rates.
• Demand from the gasoline blending sector was stable but not sufficient to offset declines in petrochemical consumption.
• In the Netherlands, inventories built up due to increased imports and lower offtake, weighing down prices.
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend eased alongside crude values, but downstream crack margins were under pressure due to oversupply and limited ethylene margins.
• The Naphtha Demand Outlook remains cautious for Q3 2025, with demand from the chemical sector expected to remain subdued, though blending might support some recovery.
• Forecasts suggest FOB Rotterdam prices may stay range-bound around USD 665–680/tonne in Q3, barring a sharp crude rebound.
APAC
• The Naphtha Price Index (CFR Tokyo) fell by -4.6% in Q2 2025, closing July near USD 661/tonne, marking the steepest regional decline among global hubs.
• Why did the price of Naphtha change in July 2025?
Naphtha prices dropped sharply in July due to aggressive discounting from Middle Eastern exporters, reduced downstream ethylene profitability, and surplus inventory in Japan and South Korea.
• High inbound volumes from Saudi Arabia and India led to oversupply, particularly in Japan’s ports, where tank utilization reached multi-month highs.
• Spot Price pressure intensified as steam crackers in South Korea and Taiwan operated at curtailed rates amid soft polymer demand.
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend remained low, tracking feedstock crude, but regional producers faced compressed spreads and poor economics.
• The Naphtha Demand Outlook for Q3 remains weak, as no significant uptick in downstream derivative production is expected. Margins are expected to remain under strain.
• The price forecast indicates that CFR Tokyo Naphtha may slide further to USD 650/tonne, unless Chinese downstream demand unexpectedly rebounds.
Middle East & Africa – FOB Jeddah (Saudi Arabia)
• The Naphtha Price Index (FOB Jeddah) averaged USD 634/tonne in July, down -2.4% over Q2 2025, amid soft international pull and crude oil corrections.
• Why did the price of Naphtha change in July 2025?
July saw lower Naphtha prices due to reduced export demand from Asia, especially Japan and South Korea, combined with weaker Brent-linked benchmarks.
• Supply was ample as Saudi refiners continued high utilization levels; export volumes remained stable, but demand from Asia and Africa softened.
• Logistics remained unaffected, with major export routes to Asia and India flowing normally.
• Naphtha Production Cost Trend was marginally lower in July, but Middle Eastern producers faced competitive pressure from Indian-origin cargoes.
• The Naphtha Spot Price faced downtrend pressure due to growing inventories at destination ports like Singapore and Tokyo.
• The Naphtha Demand Outlook for Q3 points to a possible rebound in Indian and Chinese imports by late August, but short-term sentiment remains bearish.
• Forecast: FOB Jeddah prices are likely to average USD 625–635/tonne, under competitive strain from other exporting hubs.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. Naphtha market exhibited a mixed trend, marked by an initial surge in January, followed by a period of gradual price decline through February and March. Prices peaked at USD 610/MT FOB Texas in mid-January, driven by bullish sentiment in the crude oil market, elevated refining costs, and robust gasoline production. However, by the end of March, prices had fallen, reflecting bearish sentiment, lower crude oil prices, and weakening demand from the petrochemical sector. Throughout the quarter, refinery utilization rates fluctuated between 85–92%, impacting production consistency.
The petrochemical industry increasingly shifted to cost-effective alternatives like ethane due to falling ethylene prices, limiting Naphtha's use in cracking operations. Meanwhile, gasoline production remained strong, supporting Naphtha blending demand, especially as inventories tightened and winter demand persisted.
Despite steady consumption in the fuel sector, overall sentiment was cautious due to economic uncertainty and oversupply concerns. Compared to Q4 2024, where prices were more stable, Q1 2025 reflected heightened volatility, with early gains reversed by weaker crude fundamentals and declining petrochemical uptake.
APAC
Naphtha prices in Japan during Q1 2025 experienced a mixed trajectory, initially trending upward in January before shifting into a persistent downtrend through February and March. In January, prices rose steadily, peaking at USD 682/MT CFR Tokyo amid higher crude oil costs, tight supply conditions, and strong petrochemical demand supported by European restocking. The bullish momentum, however, faltered by late January due to bearish crude sentiment and weak arbitrage economics. February marked a sustained price decline, driven by weak petrochemical demand owing to multiple cracker shutdowns in China and South Korea.
Although mid-February witnessed a brief 3.8% surge due to tightened supply and firm ethylene demand, this was short-lived, as regional oversupply and soft downstream consumption pulled prices back down by month-end. March continued this bearish tone, with prices falling further early in the month, reflecting Japan’s structural refining challenges, weak petrochemical exports, and oversupply in China. Compared to Q4 2024, which ended on a more optimistic note, Q1 2025 reflects a shift toward oversupply and demand-side pressures.
Europe
In Q1 2025, Naphtha prices in Europe, particularly in Germany, exhibited mixed trends influenced by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, refining economics, and global trade developments. The quarter opened with bullish sentiment in January, with prices peaking mid-month at USD 662/MT CIF Hamburg, supported by a tightening market structure, rising crude oil prices, and firm gasoline and petrochemical demand. However, later in the month, bearish sentiment took hold as gasoline inventories surged, downstream demand weakened, and WTI crude prices softened—leading to a 2.3% weekly drop.
In February, prices showed slight volatility, rising initially due to natural gas-induced refining cost pressures and tightening supply, then dipping amid weak petrochemical margins and competitive pressure from propane feedstock. By month-end, despite a marginal recovery, market fundamentals remained soft.
March saw relative price stability, as rising inventories and logistical disruptions offset crude oil movements. Demand from petrochemical and blending sectors stayed weak, keeping upward momentum in check. Compared to Q4 2024, which was more volatile with strong fuel demand in early winter, Q1 2025 was comparatively subdued and directionless, shaped by muted demand and supply-driven price adjustments.
South America
In Q1 2025, the South American naphtha market, particularly in Brazil, followed a predominantly bearish trajectory, with prices trending downward amid shifting macroeconomic and sectoral dynamics. Prices opened the quarter in January at around USD 500/MT ExW-Rio de Janeiro and saw an initial uptick by month-end due to US tariff hikes and crude market volatility. However, this momentum faded as February ushered in a bearish phase, with prices softening, influenced by declining global crude oil benchmarks and steady refining operations. March further deepened the downtrend as prices fell, reflecting weak international demand, rising naphtha supply, and structural shifts in Brazil’s petrochemical sector. Braskem’s transition to ethane and lower plant utilization rates curtailed domestic demand, while the fuel sector’s growing emphasis on ethanol and biofuels reduced fossil naphtha reliance. Overall, Q1 2025 recorded a ~3.1% quarterly price drop, exacerbating the 4.7% decline observed in Q4 2024. With structural shifts gaining momentum and global economic sentiment remaining tepid, the South American naphtha market faces continued downward pressure in the near term.
MEA
In Q1 2025, the MEA Naphtha market, particularly in Saudi Arabia, experienced a progressive bearish trend, with prices declining steadily across the quarter due to a mix of macroeconomic pressures, crude oil price volatility, and weakened global demand. Naphtha prices began the quarter with moderate strength, supported by increased feedstock costs and steady domestic demand, rising in January. However, by February, bearish sentiment took hold, with prices dropping to USD 623/MT amid declining refinery output, reduced crude prices, and economic uncertainties stemming from weakened global consumption and tariff-related tensions. The trend deepened in March, where prices fell further, reflecting the intensified preference for alternative feedstocks like LPG in fuel blending, sluggish petrochemical activity, and OPEC+’s decision to raise oil output. Compared to Q4 2024, when prices had already declined by 3.5%, Q1 2025 marked a more pronounced downturn driven by declining refinery margins, oversupply, and a cautious global economic outlook. Unless petrochemical margins recover and fuel blending economics shift, Naphtha prices may remain under sustained pressure in the near term.
