For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. Naphtha market exhibited a mixed trend, marked by an initial surge in January, followed by a period of gradual price decline through February and March. Prices peaked at USD 610/MT FOB Texas in mid-January, driven by bullish sentiment in the crude oil market, elevated refining costs, and robust gasoline production. However, by the end of March, prices had fallen, reflecting bearish sentiment, lower crude oil prices, and weakening demand from the petrochemical sector. Throughout the quarter, refinery utilization rates fluctuated between 85–92%, impacting production consistency.
The petrochemical industry increasingly shifted to cost-effective alternatives like ethane due to falling ethylene prices, limiting Naphtha's use in cracking operations. Meanwhile, gasoline production remained strong, supporting Naphtha blending demand, especially as inventories tightened and winter demand persisted.
Despite steady consumption in the fuel sector, overall sentiment was cautious due to economic uncertainty and oversupply concerns. Compared to Q4 2024, where prices were more stable, Q1 2025 reflected heightened volatility, with early gains reversed by weaker crude fundamentals and declining petrochemical uptake.
APAC
Naphtha prices in Japan during Q1 2025 experienced a mixed trajectory, initially trending upward in January before shifting into a persistent downtrend through February and March. In January, prices rose steadily, peaking at USD 682/MT CFR Tokyo amid higher crude oil costs, tight supply conditions, and strong petrochemical demand supported by European restocking. The bullish momentum, however, faltered by late January due to bearish crude sentiment and weak arbitrage economics. February marked a sustained price decline, driven by weak petrochemical demand owing to multiple cracker shutdowns in China and South Korea.
Although mid-February witnessed a brief 3.8% surge due to tightened supply and firm ethylene demand, this was short-lived, as regional oversupply and soft downstream consumption pulled prices back down by month-end. March continued this bearish tone, with prices falling further early in the month, reflecting Japan’s structural refining challenges, weak petrochemical exports, and oversupply in China. Compared to Q4 2024, which ended on a more optimistic note, Q1 2025 reflects a shift toward oversupply and demand-side pressures.
Europe
In Q1 2025, Naphtha prices in Europe, particularly in Germany, exhibited mixed trends influenced by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, refining economics, and global trade developments. The quarter opened with bullish sentiment in January, with prices peaking mid-month at USD 662/MT CIF Hamburg, supported by a tightening market structure, rising crude oil prices, and firm gasoline and petrochemical demand. However, later in the month, bearish sentiment took hold as gasoline inventories surged, downstream demand weakened, and WTI crude prices softened—leading to a 2.3% weekly drop.
In February, prices showed slight volatility, rising initially due to natural gas-induced refining cost pressures and tightening supply, then dipping amid weak petrochemical margins and competitive pressure from propane feedstock. By month-end, despite a marginal recovery, market fundamentals remained soft.
March saw relative price stability, as rising inventories and logistical disruptions offset crude oil movements. Demand from petrochemical and blending sectors stayed weak, keeping upward momentum in check. Compared to Q4 2024, which was more volatile with strong fuel demand in early winter, Q1 2025 was comparatively subdued and directionless, shaped by muted demand and supply-driven price adjustments.
South America
In Q1 2025, the South American naphtha market, particularly in Brazil, followed a predominantly bearish trajectory, with prices trending downward amid shifting macroeconomic and sectoral dynamics. Prices opened the quarter in January at around USD 500/MT ExW-Rio de Janeiro and saw an initial uptick by month-end due to US tariff hikes and crude market volatility. However, this momentum faded as February ushered in a bearish phase, with prices softening, influenced by declining global crude oil benchmarks and steady refining operations. March further deepened the downtrend as prices fell, reflecting weak international demand, rising naphtha supply, and structural shifts in Brazil’s petrochemical sector. Braskem’s transition to ethane and lower plant utilization rates curtailed domestic demand, while the fuel sector’s growing emphasis on ethanol and biofuels reduced fossil naphtha reliance. Overall, Q1 2025 recorded a ~3.1% quarterly price drop, exacerbating the 4.7% decline observed in Q4 2024. With structural shifts gaining momentum and global economic sentiment remaining tepid, the South American naphtha market faces continued downward pressure in the near term.
MEA
In Q1 2025, the MEA Naphtha market, particularly in Saudi Arabia, experienced a progressive bearish trend, with prices declining steadily across the quarter due to a mix of macroeconomic pressures, crude oil price volatility, and weakened global demand. Naphtha prices began the quarter with moderate strength, supported by increased feedstock costs and steady domestic demand, rising in January. However, by February, bearish sentiment took hold, with prices dropping to USD 623/MT amid declining refinery output, reduced crude prices, and economic uncertainties stemming from weakened global consumption and tariff-related tensions. The trend deepened in March, where prices fell further, reflecting the intensified preference for alternative feedstocks like LPG in fuel blending, sluggish petrochemical activity, and OPEC+’s decision to raise oil output. Compared to Q4 2024, when prices had already declined by 3.5%, Q1 2025 marked a more pronounced downturn driven by declining refinery margins, oversupply, and a cautious global economic outlook. Unless petrochemical margins recover and fuel blending economics shift, Naphtha prices may remain under sustained pressure in the near term.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American naphtha market experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.9%, driven by weakened demand across key downstream sectors and fluctuating supply dynamics. The petrochemical sector saw reduced demand for naphtha as feedstock due to planned maintenance at ethylene crackers and lower production rates.
Fuel applications also declined, with light distillate demand softening as gasoline inventories rose and distillate fuel production fluctuated. Seasonal factors, such as milder-than-expected winter weather, limited heating fuel demand, further contributing to the downward trend. Economic uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and shifts in global trade dynamics, weighed on market sentiment, while stable crude oil inventories kept supply levels sufficient throughout the quarter.
Despite a slight uptick in demand toward the end of the quarter driven by colder temperatures, the overall market remained bearish due to surplus inventories and limited downstream activity. The delayed production adjustments by OPEC+ and easing geopolitical tensions impacted upstream costs but failed to offset the broader demand-supply imbalance. The market remained volatile, reflecting complex dynamics across the manufacturing, petrochemical, and fuel production sectors.
APAC
In Q4 of 2024, the APAC market witnessed bearish trend especially in countries like Japan. The Japanese naphtha market in Q4 2024 experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.3%, driven by weak demand and ample supply. Prices were stable at the beginning of October due to balanced supply-demand dynamics and steady domestic margins, despite subdued manufacturing activity. Mid-quarter, prices fluctuated with changes in crude oil costs, rising briefly before declining as demand from the petrochemical sector weakened and cracker turnarounds reduced consumption. November saw consistent price drops due to oversupply and reduced demand, particularly from the olefin and plastics sectors. Import volumes into Asia, including Japan, declined for the second consecutive month, further pressuring prices. Toward December, prices showed modest recovery, supported by a decline in Middle Eastern stockpiles and anticipation of improved demand in early 2025. However, overall fundamentals remained weak, with low consumption in the downstream petrochemical sector and oversupply persisting in the market. Currency appreciation against the USD slightly offset import cost pressures. Despite a late-quarter recovery, the market ended on a bearish note, reflecting challenges in regional and global naphtha demand.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European naphtha market especially in Germany experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.8%, reflecting subdued demand across key downstream sectors amid challenging economic conditions and volatile global market dynamics. The petrochemical industry faced weak demand due to ongoing maintenance at major crackers and economic stagnation, leading to reduced consumption of naphtha. Additionally, seasonal factors, including mild weather conditions, limited the need for heating fuel, further dampening demand for naphtha in the region. On the supply side, stable gas supplies in Europe reduced reliance on naphtha for energy production. Increased gasoline inventories and subdued refining activity also contributed to the bearish market sentiment. While the easing of cracker maintenance and improved transatlantic gasoline exports offered some support, the overall market remained under pressure from weak regional industrial activity and geopolitical uncertainties.
Geopolitical tensions and ongoing economic uncertainties continued to weigh on market sentiment. Rising crude oil prices, driven by supply concerns, had limited impact on naphtha prices due to a lack of downstream demand. The European market remained volatile, reflecting the complex interplay of supply-demand dynamics, economic stagnation, and the region’s shift toward cleaner energy alternatives.
South America
In Q4 2024, the South American naphtha market faced challenges marked by a 4.7% quarter-on-quarter decline. Demand remained weak due to sluggish performance in the petrochemical and fuel sectors, which are the primary consumers of naphtha. High inventory levels and increased refining capacity contributed to oversupply in the market. While geopolitical tensions led to fluctuations in crude oil prices, these were partly offset by eased tensions towards the quarter’s end. The region’s petrochemical sector struggled with declining global demand, limiting naphtha consumption. The fuel production sector showed mixed results, with moderate gasoline blending demand in December but overall weak fuel consumption. A stronger US Dollar and OPEC+ production delays further pressured market conditions. Despite minor improvements in Asian demand towards the quarter’s end, the outlook remains bearish. The South American market is expected to continue facing supply-demand imbalances and global economic uncertainties, with any substantial recovery contingent on global economic revival and a boost in downstream petrochemical activities.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the Middle East and Africa (MEA) naphtha market experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.5%. The market was influenced by several factors, including weak demand from the petrochemical sector, and slowing fuel consumption. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, created volatility in crude oil prices, but despite this, naphtha prices continued to decline due to oversupply and lower demand. Maintenance at key refineries, including the Fujirah refinery, further complicated supply-demand dynamics, with delayed production resumption contributing to increased stock levels. Additionally, the slowdown in global petrochemical demand, particularly from key consumers in Asia and Europe, put additional pressure on naphtha prices. While some stability was seen towards the end of the quarter, market sentiment remained largely bearish due to global economic uncertainty, OPEC+ production cuts, and low demand from major importers such as China. The market outlook for naphtha remained cautious, with reduced consumption across key sectors and limited growth opportunities in the short term. Overall the market remained bearish in Q4 2024 in MEA region.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Throughout Q3 2024, Naphtha pricing in North America witnessed a persistent decline, with significant factors contributing to this trend. The market was heavily influenced by a combination of reduced demand, oversupply, and weakening global economic conditions. Decreased industrial activity, particularly in downstream sectors, led to a slump in demand for Naphtha, exacerbating the surplus in the market. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions further dampened market sentiment, pushing prices downward.
In the USA, where the most substantial price changes were observed, the Naphtha market mirrored the overall regional trend. The correlation between Naphtha prices and international crude oil markets remained strong, with pricing dynamics closely following crude oil fluctuations. The -21% decrease from the same quarter last year highlighted the significant price erosion over time, compounded by the -3% decline from the previous quarter in 2024. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter, showing a -3% decrease, further emphasized the continued downward trajectory.
The latest quarter-ending price of USD 552/MT of Naphtha FOB Texas in the USA underscored the prevailing negative pricing environment, reflecting a challenging period for Naphtha markets in North America.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Naphtha market in the APAC region experienced a significant decline in prices. Several factors influenced this downward trend, including decreased demand from downstream sectors, oversupply of Naphtha, and weak macroeconomic conditions. The bearish market sentiment was exacerbated by low refining margins, geopolitical tensions impacting crude oil prices, and reduced production rates in the petrochemical industry.
Japan, in particular, witnessed the most notable price changes during this quarter. Overall trends in Japan reflected the regional context, with a consistent decrease in Naphtha prices. Seasonality and correlation in price changes highlighted a clear downward trajectory, with a -8% change from the same quarter last year and a -3% change from the previous quarter in 2024. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a substantial -4% decrease. The quarter-ending price of USD 650/MT of Naphtha CFR Tokyo in Japan marked the culmination of this negative pricing environment, illustrating a challenging period for the Naphtha market in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Naphtha market in Europe experienced a notable decline in prices, with the Netherlands being the most impacted. Several factors contributed to this downward trend. Firstly, oversupply in the market due to increased production and reduced demand from the petrochemical sector led to pricing pressures. Additionally, weakening global economic conditions and decreased refining margins further pushed prices downwards. The seasonal shift towards lower energy demand also played a role in the declining prices. Comparing to the same quarter last year, prices saw a significant decrease of 17%, indicating a prolonged downward trajectory. Furthermore, the quarter-on-quarter change in 2024 showed a 3% decline, reflecting the ongoing negative trend. The second half of the quarter saw a more pronounced decrease of 7% compared to the first half, emphasizing the intensification of price declines.Ultimately, the quarter concluded with Naphtha prices at USD 545/MT FOB Rotterdam in the Netherlands, underscoring the prevailing negative pricing environment characterized by consistent decreases throughout the period.
MEA
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a consistent decline in Naphtha prices across the MEA region, with notable impacts on the market dynamics. The significant factors influencing this downward trend included an oversupply of crude oil, subdued demand from key importing regions, and geopolitical uncertainties affecting supply chains. These factors collectively contributed to a bearish sentiment in the Naphtha market, leading to decreased prices. In Saudi Arabia specifically, the market experienced the most significant price changes during this period. The overall trend displayed a negative correlation, with prices declining by 9% compared to the same quarter last year. However, the quarter-on-quarter change remained relatively stable at 0%, indicating a temporary stabilization amidst the overall downward trajectory. Furthermore, the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a 3% decrease, reflecting a sustained decline in Naphtha prices. Ultimately, the quarter concluded with Naphtha prices in Saudi Arabia standing at USD 593/MT FOB Jeddah, underscoring the prevailing decreasing sentiment in the market.
South America
In Q3 2024, the Naphtha pricing in South America witnessed a significant decline, reflecting a negative market sentiment. This quarter has been characterized by a multitude of influential factors contributing to the downward trend in prices. The 29% decrease from the same quarter last year can be attributed to weakened demand from downstream industries and oversupply in the market. The 4% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024 was mainly driven by reduced refining margins and decreased buying interest amid the weak market situation. Brazil, experiencing the most substantial price changes, saw a correlation in price fluctuations, with a notable -3% difference between the first and second half of the quarter. This trend aligns with the overall negative sentiment in the market. The latest quarter-ending price of USD 520/MT of Naphtha EXW-Rio de Janeiro in Brazil signifies the continued downward trajectory in pricing. The seasonality and correlation in price changes underscore a challenging pricing environment, marked by stability at lower price levels.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American naphtha market experienced a pronounced downward trajectory in prices, driven by several significant factors. The quarter saw a consistent decrease in naphtha prices due to high supply volumes, subdued demand from downstream petrochemical sectors, and easing crude oil prices. The ample supply of naphtha, largely influenced by increased output from key global producers, created a glut in the market, putting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the petrochemical industry's sluggish demand, exacerbated by high inflation rates and lower trading activities, further contributed to the bearish market sentiment. The correlation between crude oil and naphtha prices remained strong, with naphtha prices mirroring the declines observed in crude oil markets.
Focusing on the USA, the region experienced the most significant price fluctuations within North America. The overall trend was notably negative, influenced by seasonal factors such as the underwhelming summer driving season which did not meet expected demand levels.
In comparison to the same quarter last year, naphtha prices declined by 9%, reflecting a substantial year-over-year decrease. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices recorded a modest drop of 1%, highlighting a persistent but gradual decline. Within Q2, the first half of the quarter saw sharper price drops compared to the second half, recording a 6% decline. Concluding the quarter, the price of naphtha underscored a consistently negative pricing environment throughout the period. The market dynamics, characterized by high inventories and low demand, have overwhelmingly contributed to the negative sentiment, leaving the pricing environment firmly in the negative territory for Q2 2024.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has been challenging for the Naphtha market in the APAC region, marked by a consistent decline in prices driven by several significant factors. The primary reason for this downturn has been an oversupply of Naphtha, exacerbated by low demand from downstream petrochemical industries. Additionally, the continuous fluctuation and overall decrease in upstream crude oil prices have further pressured Naphtha valuations. Despite the occasional rallies in crude oil markets, the abundant supply and weak demand fundamentals have maintained a bearish sentiment across the region. Focusing on Japan, the country has experienced the most pronounced price volatility this quarter. The Naphtha market in Japan exhibited an overall decreasing trend, significantly influenced by seasonal factors and economic conditions. The quarter saw a substantial price decline, with a 4% dip between the first and second halves of the quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices plummeted by 37%, reflecting a sharp contrast to the more stable 1% decline from the previous quarter in 2024. This indicates that the pricing environment has been predominantly negative, characterized by persistent downward pressure. The latest quarter-ending price for Naphtha CFR Tokyo stands at USD 703/MT, underscoring the negative trajectory. The overall trends in Japan reveal a confluence of oversupply, subdued demand, and stable yet unsupportive crude oil prices, leading to a decisive decline in Naphtha prices. This consistent decrease highlights the challenging market conditions, emphasizing the negative pricing environment throughout the quarter.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European naphtha market experienced a notable decline in prices, influenced by several critical factors, creating a generally negative pricing environment. The primary factor was the significant drop in crude oil prices, which directly impacted naphtha's valuation. This decline in crude oil prices was driven by a combination of oversupply and weakening demand. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, exacerbated the situation by disrupting supply chains, while economic uncertainties in major markets, including Europe and the US, restrained industrial demand. Furthermore, increased naphtha supply from regions like the US Gulf Coast and the Arab Gulf, driven by arbitrage opportunities, contributed to the downward pressure on prices. High inventory levels, subdued purchasing activity, and cautious market sentiment due to inflationary pressures and economic sluggishness also played significant roles. Focusing on Germany, which witnessed the most substantial price changes, the overall trend in Q2 was characterized by a marked decline. The seasonal demand uptick typically expected during this period failed to materialize, largely due to weak downstream demand from sectors like petrochemicals. The correlation between declining crude oil prices and naphtha was evident, reflecting the interconnectedness of these markets. Compared to the same quarter last year, naphtha prices in Germany decreased by an impressive 15%. This stark contrast highlights the negative shift in market sentiment and economic conditions. In comparison to the previous quarter in 2024, however, the price change was recorded at 0%, indicating a stabilizing albeit low market environment. Within Q2 2024 itself, the first half of the quarter saw prices decline by 3% compared to the second half, evidencing a continual negative trend. Overall, the Q2 2024 pricing environment for naphtha in Europe, and more specifically in Germany, was decisively negative, driven by a convergence of oversupply, weak demand, and economic uncertainties, leading to significant price reductions.
MEA
During Q2 2024, the naphtha market in the MEA region experienced a steady decline in prices, driven by several significant factors. Firstly, the global crude oil market showed a downward trend, which directly impacted naphtha prices as it is a by-product of crude oil. Additionally, the surplus supply of naphtha due to high production levels and stable import activities led to an oversaturated market, further depressing prices. Coupled with weak demand from downstream industries such as petrochemicals, the market saw minimal buying interest, exacerbating the price drop. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, the country experienced the most pronounced price changes within the MEA region, reflecting the overall bearish sentiment of the market. Seasonal variations played a crucial role, as the transition into the off-season for gasoline and diesel shifted focus towards procurement activities rather than active trading. Moreover, despite a brief increase in demand for ethylene cracking, overall market fundamentals remained weak. The correlation between naphtha prices and upstream crude oil prices remained significant, with the latter's decline mirroring the former's downturn. The naphtha prices in Saudi Arabia decreased by 38% compared to the same quarter last year, highlighting the substantial downward shift. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at 0%, indicating that while the prices remained stable quarter-on-quarter, the yearly comparison presented a clear declining trend. A detailed comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter showed a 4% decrease in prices, underscoring the persistent downward momentum. This declining pricing environment reflects a predominantly negative sentiment, driven by oversupply, weak demand, and lower crude oil prices, maintaining a consistent bearish trend throughout Q2 2024.
South America
In the second quarter of 2024, the Brazilian naphtha market experienced a notable decline in prices, primarily influenced by the availability of cheaper imports from the USA. This trend was further exacerbated by a broader selloff in risk assets and a stronger US dollar, which impacted crude oil benchmarks. The demand for naphtha in Brazil remains strong, driven by its use as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry, particularly for the production of ethylene and propylene. growth. Overall, while the Brazilian naphtha market faced downward pricing pressures in Q2 2024, the underlying demand and strategic imports are likely to provide a stable outlook for the remainder of the year.
