For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Naphthenic Oil Prices in North America
- In United States, the Naphthenic Oil Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by strengthened feedstock costs.
- The Naphthenic Oil Production Cost Trend increased in March 2026, reflecting a 4.0% PPI and 3.3% CPI rise.
- The Naphthenic Oil Demand Outlook strengthened during March 2026 as the Manufacturing Index expanded, supporting industrial lubricant consumption.
- Retail sales grew 4.0% in March 2026, sustaining steady automotive tire replacement cycles observed in January 2026.
- Industrial production grew 0.7% and unemployment reached 4.3% in March 2026, providing baseline support for rubber compounding.
- The Naphthenic Oil Price Forecast remained firm in March 2026 despite consumer confidence reaching a 91.8 index.
- Producers actively built inventories in February 2026 ahead of turnarounds, tightening spot supply during the first quarter.
- The Naphthenic Oil Price Index stayed elevated in March 2026 as Middle East crude tanker rates surged.
Why did the price of Naphthenic Oil change in March 2026 in North America?
- Heavy crude oil feedstock costs strengthened in March 2026 due to Middle East geopolitical tensions.
- Spot supply of naphthenic oils tightened in February 2026 as producers prioritized their contract commitments.
- Severe winter storms in late January 2026 disrupted crude oil processing, adding upward cost pressure.
Naphthenic Oil Prices in APAC
- In China, the Naphthenic Oil Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by rising factory-gate prices.
- The Naphthenic Oil Production Cost Trend increased in March 2026 as producer prices rose by 0.5 percent.
- The Naphthenic Oil Demand Outlook strengthened in March 2026, supported by a 5.7 percent industrial production growth.
- The Naphthenic Oil Price Forecast remained stable in March 2026, aligning with a 1.0 percent consumer inflation.
- Slower retail sales growth of 1.7 percent in March 2026 limited Naphthenic Oil consumption in consumer-driven applications.
- An unemployment rate of 5.4 percent in March 2026 dampened Naphthenic Oil demand for automotive tire manufacturing.
- A consumer confidence index of 91.6 in February 2026 reduced Naphthenic Oil usage in consumer-facing adhesive applications.
- The Manufacturing Index expanded in March 2026, driving Naphthenic Oil consumption for metalworking fluids and industrial lubricants.
- The Manufacturing Index and New Orders Index weakened in Jan 2026, temporarily softening early-quarter Naphthenic Oil demand.
Why did the price of Naphthenic Oil change in March 2026 in APAC?
- Rising raw material costs in March 2026 pushed the regional Naphthenic Oil Price Index upward.
- Robust heavy manufacturing activity in March 2026 increased regional Naphthenic Oil demand for transformer oils.
- An expanded Manufacturing Index in March 2026 elevated regional Naphthenic Oil consumption across industrial sectors.
Naphthenic Oil Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Naphthenic Oil Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by surging heavy crude feedstock costs.
- The Naphthenic Oil Production Cost Trend increased in March 2026 as consumer inflation reached 2.7% year-over-year.
- Industrial producer prices fell 0.2% in March 2026, while industrial production remained stagnant at 0.0% in February 2026.
- The Naphthenic Oil Demand Outlook strengthened in February 2026, supported by 0.7% retail sales growth and stable 4.2% unemployment.
- Despite consumer confidence hitting a low -24.7 in March 2026, domestic passenger car production and vehicle registrations surged.
- The regional Manufacturing Index expanded in March 2026, aligning perfectly with surging transformer oil demand during Q1 2026.
- Spot market availability tightened sharply in Q1 2026 because refiners prioritized highly profitable diesel production over base oils.
- The Naphthenic Oil Price Forecast remained elevated throughout Q1 2026 despite resumed Venezuelan heavy crude export flows.
Why did the price of Naphthenic Oil change in March 2026 in Europe?
- Naphthenic heavy crude oil feedstock costs spiked in March 2026 amid severe regional supply disruptions.
- Base oil supply tightened significantly as refiners prioritized highly profitable diesel production during Q1 2026.
- Transformer oil demand surged rapidly due to aggressive renewable energy infrastructure expansion throughout Q1 2026.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
- In the United States, Naphthenic Oil prices rose in Q4 2025, driven by rising input costs and robust industrial activity.
- Production costs increased due to a 2.7% year-over-year CPI rise in December 2025 and 3.0% PPI in November 2025.
- Demand was supported by a 2.0% year-over-year increase in industrial production in December 2025.
- Natural gas prices surged significantly from late October through December 2025, impacting Naphthenic Oil energy costs.
- U.S. crude oil production reached record highs in October 2025, influencing Naphthenic Oil feedstock availability.
- Manufacturing activity stabilized in Q4 2025, but new orders declined in December, affecting future demand.
- U.S. oil inventories built in Q4 2025; regional base oil supply tightened in early October due to maintenance.
- Retail sales rose 3.3% year-over-year in November 2025, boosting Naphthenic Oil demand in consumer applications.
- December's 89.1 consumer confidence and 4.4% unemployment rate supported overall consumer spending.
Why did the price of Naphthenic Oil change in December 2025 in North America?
- Rising input costs, including a 2.7% CPI increase in December 2025, pressured Naphthenic Oil prices upward.
- Strong industrial production, up 2.0% year-over-year in December 2025, bolstered Naphthenic Oil demand.
- Natural gas prices surged from late October through December 2025, increasing Naphthenic Oil production expenses.
APAC
- In China, the Naphthenic Oil Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, due to deflationary producer prices and weak consumer demand.
- Naphthenic Oil production costs declined in Q4 2025 as benchmark crude oil prices softened in November 2025.
- Demand for Naphthenic Oil was supported by robust industrial production, which grew 5.2% year-on-year in December 2025.
- Manufacturing activity expanded in December 2025, indicated by the Manufacturing Index, bolstering Naphthenic Oil consumption.
- Weak consumer spending, with retail sales growing 0.9% year-on-year in December 2025, dampened overall market sentiment.
- The unemployment rate remained at 5.1% in December 2025, indicating labor market slack and subdued consumer confidence.
- China's crude oil inventories reached record highs in late December 2025, ensuring ample feedstock availability.
- Input cost inflation for manufacturing accelerated in December 2025, impacting overall production expenses.
- Naphthenic Oil prices were assessed at USD 1280/ MT in Q4.
Why did the price of Naphthenic Oil change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Producer prices declined 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, exerting downward pressure on Naphthenic Oil.
- Weak consumer demand, with CPI at 0.8% in December 2025, contributed to price softness.
- Softening crude oil prices in November 2025 reduced feedstock costs, influencing Naphthenic Oil.
Europe
- In Germany, the Naphthenic Oil Price Index fell in Q4 2025, driven by contracting manufacturing and falling producer prices.
- Naphthenic Oil production costs were influenced by North Sea Dated crude oil prices slumping in October and Urals crude plunging in November 2025.
- Demand for Naphthenic Oil declined as German manufacturing output fell in December 2025, impacting industrial consumption.
- The Manufacturing Index contracted sharply in December 2025, indicating reduced industrial activity and demand.
- European base oil prices declined in mid-December 2025 due to year-end destocking and elevated stock levels.
- Germany's producer price index (PPI) declined by 2.5% year-on-year in December 2025, reflecting deflationary pressures.
- Consumer confidence remained significantly negative at -17.5 in December 2025, despite 1.8% CPI growth.
- Industrial production in Germany showed a modest 0.8% year-on-year growth in October 2025, but demand remained weak.
- Unemployment stood at 6.2% in December 2025, impacting spending, despite 1.1% retail sales growth in November.
Why did the price of Naphthenic Oil change in December 2025 in Europe?
- German manufacturing output declined in December 2025, reducing industrial demand.
- The producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.5% year-on-year in December 2025.
- Elevated European base oil inventories in mid-December 2025 contributed to price declines.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In United States, the Naphthenic Oil Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by rising costs and tightened supply.
- Naphthenic Oil production costs increased, driven by a 3.0% CPI in September 2025 and 2.6% PPI in August 2025.
- Industrial lubricant demand strengthened in Q3 2025, supported by investments in reshoring and automation initiatives.
- Naphthenic Oil demand outlook mixed; strong retail sales (5.42% September 2025) offset sluggish industrial production (0.1% September 2025).
- Regional Naphthenic Oil supply tightened in Q3 2025 due to unexpected plant disruptions and planned refinery turnarounds.
- Crude oil prices remained stable in Q3 2025; refinery margins for related petroleum products increased in September 2025.
- U.S. lubricant exports continued growth through August 2025, contributing to an expanded trade surplus for U.S. lubricants.
- Automotive lubricant demand softened seasonally in September 2025, reflecting declining consumer confidence (94.2 index September 2025).
Why did the price of Naphthenic Oil change in September 2025 in North America?
- Inflationary pressures from 3.0% CPI year-over-year in September 2025 increased Naphthenic Oil production costs.
- Regional supply tightened due to unexpected plant disruptions and refinery turnarounds throughout Q3 2025.
- Refinery margins for related petroleum products climbed in September 2025, impacting Naphthenic Oil input costs.
Europe
- In Germany, the Naphthenic Oil Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by contracting industrial activity.
- Naphthenic Oil production costs eased as producer prices declined by 1.7% in September 2025 due to lower energy.
- Demand for Naphthenic Oil was dampened by a contracting Manufacturing Index in Q3 2025 and declining industrial production.
- Industrial production in Germany decreased by 1.0% in September 2025, reducing overall demand for raw materials.
- The Naphthenic Oil demand outlook remains subdued due to weak manufacturing output and declining new orders in September.
- Retail sales in Germany rose by 0.2% in September 2025, offering slight support for consumer-linked Naphthenic Oil uses.
- Crude oil prices declined in September 2025, contributing to lower energy feedstock costs for Naphthenic Oil production.
- German manufacturing export sales declined in August and remained largely unchanged in September 2025.
Why did the price of Naphthenic Oil change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Lower producer prices, down 1.7% in September 2025, reduced Naphthenic Oil production costs.
- Contracting Manufacturing Index in Q3 2025 and declining industrial production dampened Naphthenic Oil demand.
- Crude oil prices declined in September 2025, easing feedstock expenses for Naphthenic Oil manufacturers.
APAC
- In China, the Naphthenic Oil Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter, due to contracting manufacturing and weak industrial demand in September 2025.
- Naphthenic Oil production costs remained stable in Q3 2025, as crude oil prices fluctuated and global supply strengthened.
- China's industrial production increased 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, supporting Naphthenic Oil demand.
- Retail sales grew 3.0% year-on-year in September 2025, boosting Naphthenic Oil demand in consumer applications.
- Automotive production and sales maintained strong year-on-year growth throughout Q3 2025, especially for New Energy Vehicles.
- Deflationary CPI at -0.3% and PPI at -2.3% in September 2025 indicated weak consumer and industrial pricing power.
- The Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, signaling reduced new orders and industrial activity.
- Global observed oil inventories, including Chinese crude stocks, increased through Q3 2025, reaching a four-year high.
- Low consumer confidence in September 2025 suggested pessimism, dampening discretionary spending and related demand.
Why did the price of Naphthenic Oil change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Weak consumer demand, with -0.3% CPI year-on-year in September 2025, reduced end-product purchases.
- Contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025 signaled reduced industrial activity and lower raw material demand.
- Increased global crude oil supply and stable prices in Q3 2025 eased Naphthenic Oil production costs.
