For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Natural Gas Price Index fell by 11.9% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting abundant supply pressure.
• The average Natural Gas price for the quarter was approximately USD 3127.00/MT, across U.S. hubs.
• Storage injections pressured the Natural Gas Spot Price, reinforcing the quarter's bearish Natural Gas Price Index.
• Export and domestic dynamics shaped the Natural Gas Demand Outlook, with LNG flows supporting price.
• Rising transportation and feedstock expenses affected the Natural Gas Production Cost Trend and constrained margins.
• Near-term Natural Gas Price Forecast shows conditional recovery potential hinging on winter demand and exports.
• Industrial weakness and variable cooling loads kept the Natural Gas Price Index rangebound across hubs.
• Higher inventories above five-year averages constrained rallies, pressuring Natural Gas Spot Price despite export support.
Why did the price of Natural Gas change in September 2025 in North America?
• Elevated production and abundant storage builds increased supply, undermining upward price pressure in September 2025.
• Milder-than-expected weather reduced power burn forecasts, weakening near-term domestic consumption and limiting price support further.
• LNG export schedules and logistics disruptions tightened flows, but exports remained insufficient to offset surplus.
APAC
• In China, the Natural Gas Price Index fell by 11.9011% quarter-over-quarter, pressured by pipeline surplus.
• The average Natural Gas price for the quarter was approximately USD 3126.33/MT, per hub settlements.
• Natural Gas Spot Price softened as cheaper pipeline inflows and domestic output displaced LNG cargoes.
• Natural Gas Price Forecast indicates limited near-term upside amid full inventories and weak industrial demand.
• Natural Gas Production Cost Trend stable as rising domestic output reduced costs and import reliance.
• Natural Gas Demand Outlook subdued as weak manufacturing and coal preference limit gas-fired generation activity.
• Natural Gas Price Index saw rallies after typhoon outages but stayed capped by supply surplus.
• Storage levels recovered and muted export demand constrained upside, leaving price volatility moderate and localized.
Why did the price of Natural Gas change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Surging pipeline deliveries and robust domestic production increased supply, reducing reliance on expensive LNG imports.
• Soft industrial and chemical demand with coal substitution reduced gas offtake and lowered price momentum.
• Logistics disruptions briefly tightened prompt availability, but high inventories and tariffs constrained any sustained gains.
Europe
• In Germany, the Natural Gas Price Index fell by 10.33% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting abundant supply conditions.
• The average Natural Gas price for the quarter was approximately USD 33267.33/MT, per hub reporting.
• Natural Gas Spot Price eased on LNG inflows, while the Price Index showed weakening fundamentals.
• Natural Gas Price Forecast indicates limited upside due to inventories, pipeline flows, and subdued demand.
• Natural Gas Production Cost Trend eased as feedstock and transport expenses fell, reducing cost pressures.
• Natural Gas Demand Outlook weakened as mild temperatures and industrial softness reduced overall consumption materially.
• Natural Gas Price Index showed downward momentum supported by injections, LNG arrivals, and limited buying.
• Terminal stability and producer commitments prevented sharp spikes in Natural Gas Spot Price this quarter.
Why did the price of Natural Gas change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Rising LNG imports and pipeline flows increased supply, easing prompt tightness and pressuring prices lower.
• High storage injections and inventories reduced urgency for purchases, weakening seasonal demand-driven price support materially.
• Mild weather, industrial curtailments, and regulator policy changes lowered consumption, while maintenance tightened local balances.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Natural Gas Price Index fell by 15.19% quarter-over-quarter, amid abundant supply.
• The average Natural Gas price for the quarter was approximately USD 3096.67/MT, reflecting ample supply.
• Natural Gas Spot Price showed volatility, while the Price Index remained pressured by field output.
• Natural Gas Price Forecast suggests limited upside absent stronger export demand or unexpected supply disruptions.
• Natural Gas Production Cost Trend eased due to improved drilling efficiencies lowering marginal extraction costs.
• Natural Gas Demand Outlook weakened as petrochemical maintenance and mild weather cut industrial, power offtake.
• Inventory draws were muted and export interest fluctuated, capping any Natural Gas Price Index recoveries.
• Major producers operated near capacity as Jafurah start-up influenced balances, regional flows, affecting Price Index.
Why did the price of Natural Gas change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Rapid Jafurah output ramp and volumes expanded supply, exerting downward pressure on the Price Index.
• Milder weather reduced power burn and spot demand, while shipping stability softened regional cost pressures.
• Petrochemical maintenance and weak exports tempered industrial uptake, keeping the Price Index subdued despite premiums.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• Natural Gas Price Index averaged USD 3696/1000 mmBtu, Ex-Louisiana, down 7% from Q1 2025, and featuring a mixed pattern of early weakness followed by a late-quarter recovery.
• Why did the price change in July 2025?
The Natural Gas Price Index is projected to increase due to persistent heatwaves across the South and Midwest, which are likely to intensify cooling-related demand, while LNG feedgas volumes are anticipated to climb, tightening available domestic supply.
• Natural Gas Price fell during April and May due to mild weather curbing residential and commercial heating requirements, and industrial activity weakening.
• Natural Gas Demand Outlook was weak early on, affected by a seasonally lower level of consumption and robust pre-summer stock builds.
• Large storage injections—some exceeding five-year averages—added downward pressure, keeping Natural Gas Price Index subdued in early Q2.
• LNG feedgas deliveries dipped briefly during maintenance outages but rebounded by June, helping tighten the supply side.
• Natural Gas Production Cost Trend remained firm due to infrastructure constraints, maintenance-led output dips, and lower Canadian pipeline imports.
• Daily dry gas output ranged between 99–106 Bcf/d during Q2, with June seeing modest declines that supported a late-quarter price uptick.
• By mid-to-late June, stronger cooling-related demand emerged, particularly in the Southeast and Texas, lifting power-sector gas consumption.
• Geopolitical tensions and a crude oil rally in June reinforced market bullishness, feeding into the Natural Gas Price Index recovery.
• Futures rose nearly 3% in June, with speculative buying returning as market sentiment turned toward tighter balances for summer.
• Natural Gas Price Forecast for July 2025 points to further increases due to persistent hot weather, higher LNG demand, and restrained production recovery.
APAC
• The Natural Gas Price Index in China averaged USD 3696/1000 mmBtu, Ex-Shanghai during Q2 2025, reflecting a 7% decline from Q1 2025, with the quarter showing a mixed trend—initial price drops in April followed by moderate inclines in late May and June.
• Why did the price change in July 2025?
Natural Gas prices in China are forecasted to rise as elevated summer temperatures are expected to boost urban cooling needs and power sector demand, while inland distribution constraints may limit supply flexibility.
• Early-quarter declines in the Natural Gas Price Index were driven by sluggish industrial activity, mild weather, and high inventory levels, which suppressed both residential and manufacturing demand in major hubs like the Pearl River Delta.
• Natural Gas Demand Outlook remained subdued in April and early May due to weak real estate activity, lower export manufacturing, and trade tensions with the U.S., which impacted industrial consumption and reduced LNG appetite.
• Strong domestic production, which rose by 4.3% in Q1, and expanding pipeline gas imports from Russia and Central Asia, provided sufficient supply, limiting the need for expensive LNG and supporting regional substitution toward lower-cost piped and domestic gas.
• By late May and June, the Natural Gas Price Index saw modest recovery as spot restocking activity increased, and expectations of firmer summer demand lifted short-term buying, especially in inland and power-sector markets.
• Natural Gas Production Cost Trend remained relatively stable, with minor upward pressure from regional logistical costs and seasonal power demand, though mitigated by continued declines in seaborne LNG prices.
• The Natural Gas Price Forecast for July 2025 points to a modest incline, supported by rising summer cooling demand, increased gas-fired power generation, and ongoing pipeline infrastructure enhancements (e.g., Power of Siberia 2 momentum). Continued restrictions on U.S. LNG also tighten supply flexibility, contributing to upward price pressure.
Europe
• Natural Gas Price Index averaged EUR 36,964/1000 MWh, FD Hamburg in Q2 2025, reflecting a 19% decline from Q1; prices fell in April and May, then rebounded in June amid tightening balances.
• Why did the price change in July 2025?
The price index is likely to strengthen due to sustained hot weather, increasing electricity demand, tighter LNG markets amid geopolitical risks, and a resurgence in storage activity driven by favorable pricing and supply concerns.
• Natural Gas Price fell through April and May as mild temperatures lowered heating demand and LNG terminal utilization plunged, with Mukran falling to 5% and national usage to just 21%.
• Declining industrial activity, especially in energy-intensive sectors, further weakened the Natural Gas Demand Outlook in early Q2.
• Regulatory changes, including Germany’s decision to cut mandatory storage fill levels from 90% to 70%, signaled reduced urgency for early injections and added bearish sentiment.
• Storage volumes remained underbooked despite sufficient supply, as inverted summer-winter spreads and ambiguous EU mandates discouraged traders from forward commitments.
• Natural Gas Production Cost Trend stayed firm amid limited pipeline flexibility, particularly as Norway’s unplanned outages and maintenance at the Troll field disrupted flows in early June.
• U.S. LNG imports declined during May, while Qatar and Norway covered the gap; yet domestic storage was deprioritized in favor of regional transit flows to Austria and Czechia.
• In June, Natural Gas Price Index began to rise, supported by hot weather, surging cooling demand, and renewed geopolitical risk, especially surrounding LNG flows from the Middle East.
• The Natural Gas Demand Outlook strengthened late in Q2 as above-average temperatures drove up power sector gas use and Germany’s grid leaned on gas to support renewables.
• Market sentiment turned bullish by late June, aided by EU policy shifts (gas levy scrapped, storage mandates relaxed), stable pipeline inflows, and a ceasefire in the Middle East.
• Natural Gas Price Forecast for July 2025 suggests further increases due to persistent heat, expected tighter LNG markets, and backloaded storage activity as traders return to capacity bookings.
MEA
• Saudi Arabia’s Natural Gas Price Index averaged USD 3849/1000 mmBtu, Ex-Riyadh in Q2 2025, marking a 2.5% decline from Q1 2025, driven by early-quarter oversupply.
• Why did the price change in July 2025?
Prices are forecasted to rise as extreme heat is expected to push electricity and desalination requirements to seasonal peaks, while consumption growth may outpace the rate of domestic production ramp-up.
• Prices declined in April due to increased natural gas production from the Jafurah field and reduced reliance on crude for power, improving the natural gas production cost trend.
• May and June saw a price rebound as scorching summer temperatures spiked power generation and desalination needs, tightening supply despite stable output.
• Strong industrial demand post-Ramadan, especially from petrochemicals, added pressure on the domestic natural gas price forecast, pushing prices higher through late Q2.
• By early July 2025, the natural gas price index is projected to increase further, driven by peak cooling demand and firm downstream consumption.
• Despite ongoing production ramp-up, output lagged short-term consumption surges, reinforcing tight supply conditions and supporting a bullish natural gas demand outlook.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
During the first quarter of 2025 and into mid-April, U.S. natural gas prices exhibited a mixed trend driven by fluctuating weather patterns, shifting supply dynamics, and varied demand across sectors. In January, prices initially declined as above-average temperatures across key regions limited heating demand, but brief cold snaps later in the month sparked temporary rebounds.
February saw modest price recoveries fueled by increased residential consumption during colder spells and a slight dip in production due to freeze-offs in certain basins. However, gains were short-lived, as warmer conditions returned by the second half of the month, curbing demand once again. March brought greater volatility, with prices rising in early weeks amid cooler forecasts and strong LNG export activity, particularly to Europe and Asia. However, by late March, rising production and swelling storage levels pushed prices lower.
Throughout the quarter, inventory builds exceeded five-year averages, reinforcing market perceptions of excess availability. Despite steady export activity, particularly to Europe and Asia, domestic fundamentals dominated price direction. Overall, prices fluctuated month-to-month, reflecting the push and pull between ample supply and weather-sensitive demand across the heating season. As a result, natural gas prices declined steadily across all three months, with limited recovery prospects in the near term unless significant shifts occur in weather patterns or production output.
APAC
The natural gas market in the APAC region exhibited a mixed trend during Q1 2025. Early in the quarter, prices saw an upward trend due to a combination of higher domestic production, increased demand from industrial and residential sectors, and geopolitical factors. This was evident in January, where prices rose as China’s domestic gas production grew, coupled with rising energy demand. However, by February, prices began to decline because of weakened demand and mild winter temperatures, which reduced residential heating needs and industrial consumption. Moreover, the 15% tariff on U.S. LNG imports added downward pressure, as traders turned to alternative suppliers like Qatar and Russia. The introduction of these trade policies, along with high gas storage levels, eased market tightness and kept prices under control.
By March, natural gas prices saw a rebound, driven by tighter domestic supply and strong demand from peak-shaving power generation. However, LNG imports declined significantly by 22% in the first quarter, reflecting reduced heating demand and higher reliance on pipeline gas imports. The market remained volatile, with shifting demand patterns and supply dynamics shaping the pricing trend throughout the quarter.
Europe
The natural gas price trend in Europe for Q1 2025 exhibited a mixed pattern, with prices fluctuating due to varying supply and demand dynamics. Early in the quarter, prices surged significantly in January, driven by colder temperatures and supply concerns following the cessation of Russian gas flows via Ukraine. By mid-January, prices softened due to milder weather and stable supply levels, although concerns over storage depletion persisted. February saw further fluctuations, with a temporary price dip due to easing geopolitical tensions and higher LNG imports, but concerns over low gas storage levels and the uncertainty around EU storage mandates kept prices volatile. In the final month of the quarter, March, prices dropped sharply by 13.5% due to milder weather and improved LNG supply yet remained susceptible to price volatility.
Throughout the quarter, Germany, along with other European nations, faced challenges in balancing high demand and low storage levels. By the end of Q1 2025, the market seemed more stable, with improved supply and moderated demand, although future price fluctuations were still anticipated due to storage replenishment and global supply competition.
MEA
The natural gas market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region exhibited a mixed trend during Q1 2025. Early in the quarter, natural gas prices experienced an upward movement, largely driven by strong demand from Saudi Arabia's expanding industrial sector, rising electricity consumption, and strategic investments in gas production infrastructure. Prices reached a peak in mid-January and late January, reflecting the anticipation of increased production from major projects like Jafurah Phase 1 and Tanajib. However, by February, prices showed signs of moderation, largely due to a stable supply, which included consistent production from existing fields and the ramp-up of new facilities. The price decline observed by late February and March was attributed to reduced demand from power generation during mild weather conditions and the competition from global LNG markets, especially from the U.S. and Qatar.
Overall, while long-term outlooks remained positive with ongoing production expansion, the quarterly trend for natural gas prices in the MEA region was marked by fluctuations driven by domestic supply-demand dynamics and global energy market influences.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, natural gas prices in the U.S. experienced a clear upward trend, primarily driven by strong demand, supply constraints, and geopolitical factors. As colder weather approached, heating demand surged, particularly in the residential and commercial sectors, further tightening an already strained market.
Increased consumption for heating combined with a rise in LNG exports to international markets, especially Europe and Mexico, added significant upward pressure. Meanwhile, production levels remained somewhat stable, although slight declines in natural gas production in key regions, such as the Permian Basin, limited supply growth. Supply-side constraints, including pipeline maintenance in certain regions, exacerbated the situation.
Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in relation to Russian gas supplies, increased demand for U.S. LNG, further driving prices higher. The storage situation also contributed to price fluctuations, with levels remaining above average but the potential for demand shocks in extreme weather conditions creating volatility. As a result, natural gas prices saw a consistent increase throughout the quarter, reflecting a tightening balance between supply and demand, especially with higher exports and growing consumption expectations.
APAC
In Q4 2024, natural gas prices in the APAC region, particularly in China, experienced a notable upward trend, driven by a combination of increasing demand, supply constraints, and evolving energy market dynamics. China's strategic stockpiling efforts, aimed at securing adequate reserves for winter, contributed to a tight domestic supply, despite rising imports. This heightened demand, particularly from the industrial, heating, and residential sectors, led to significant price increases. The country’s natural gas consumption grew rapidly due to the ongoing switch from coal to gas and the expansion of infrastructure, including the completion of key pipelines like the East-Route pipeline from Russia. Additionally, as winter approached, demand surged for heating purposes, especially in urban areas, which further pushed up prices.
Meanwhile, China’s growing reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, coupled with limited domestic production capacity, heightened competition for global supplies. Russia’s increased gas flows through the Power of Siberia pipeline provided some relief but still left the market under pressure. Overall, natural gas prices in China saw steady increases through the quarter, reflecting the tightening global market and the country’s continued expansion of energy infrastructure.
Europe
In Q4 2024, natural gas prices in Europe experienced a steady increase, primarily driven by heightened demand, geopolitical tensions, and supply challenges. The onset of colder weather in late October and November significantly boosted heating demand, particularly in Germany, as residential, commercial, and industrial sectors relied heavily on natural gas for warmth and power generation. This was exacerbated by a reduction in renewable energy production, especially from wind and solar, which increased reliance on gas-fired power plants. Geopolitical concerns, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, further contributed to market volatility, with fears over potential disruptions to Russian gas supplies intensifying.
Europe's dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, especially from the United States, added pressure, as the region competed for limited LNG cargoes amidst rising demand from Asia. Despite steady gas inflows from Norway and stable domestic production, the overall gas storage levels were lower than previous years, contributing to tighter supply conditions. The result was a consistent increase in prices throughout the quarter, reflecting growing concerns over supply adequacy and the impact of cold weather on consumption, signaling a challenging winter ahead for the European natural gas market.
MEA
In Q4 2024, natural gas prices in the MEA region, particularly in Saudi Arabia, exhibited a notable upward trend, influenced by a variety of domestic and global factors. The geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, coupled with rising global energy prices, contributed to an increase in gas prices. Additionally, Saudi Arabia's growing domestic natural gas demand, especially from industrial and power generation sectors, placed upward pressure on prices. The country's efforts to diversify its energy mix by increasing renewable energy use, alongside its investment in natural gas infrastructure, helped stabilize supply but could not fully mitigate the rising demand. Furthermore, the seasonal winter demand for heating, exacerbated by colder weather, pushed consumption higher, further tightening supply and increasing costs.
Saudi Arabia also focused on expanding its natural gas sector, with strategic investments such as acquiring a stake in MidOcean Energy, marking its ambitions to become a significant player in the global LNG market. Despite stable domestic supply and enhanced production capacity, regional tensions, unexpected cold weather, and the global rise in energy prices contributed to a sustained incline in natural gas prices throughout Q4 2024.
