For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In Q1 2023, the price of Natural Gas in the US showcased a bearish price trend in the succeeding months. Falling Henry Hub Natural Gas cost with declining dry Natural Gas production came about in slow than-anticipated growth in US Natural Gas production. On 22nd Feb, the Freeport LNG exports terminal came into a function but unexpectedly canceled some cargoes due to a problem with one of its three liquefaction trains, raising fears that operations might take longer than expected. In March, the price of Natural Gas in the USA declined to USD 2.45 per MMBtu Ex-Louisiana. The trade volume of Natural Gas shrunk this quarter, which affected the profit margin and sales among the significant producers.
Asia Pacific
Prices continued to follow a declining trend with limited consumption and adequate product inventories. In China, the Natural Gas price slumped to its lowest during March 2023 with the price trend of 2.48/MMBtu Ex-Shanghai. China's import of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) drooped as the region sloped up domestic production, and pipeline imports brought about product stockpiling. Unexpectedly mild weather and adequate product in storage volumes constrained the producers to bring down their cost pattern this quarter. The decline in Natural Gas consumption from downstream power generation and heating equipment has also adversely affected the price trend. In Feb 2023, the momentum in trading of Natural Gas markets swung away from Europe and back to Asia; however, the unobtrusive increase in demand was not sufficient to elevate spot costs.
Europe
The Natural Gas prices remained on the lower end this quarter, with weak benchmark futures for February and March 2023. Towards the end of the quarter, Gas storage tanks in Europe were 56% full and were being used by downstream industries. Industries started to increase the consumption of Natural Gas, indicating which indicated a promising sign that petrochemical ventures are stepping up their demand. Nevertheless, the recovery in the industrial production units was slow. In March 2023, the price of Natural Gas in Germany slipped to Euro 44.31/ MW-hr. The demand for Natural Gas from the downstream power generation and heating equipment declined, and the European market players struggled with adequate inventories and increasing costs for storage containers.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
During the quarter ending on Dec 2022, the price of Natural Gas in the USA surged in H1 and followed a downward trajectory in the H2 2022. In Nov, the market remained tight on account of record-high export to the overseas market, making big profits on it because of continued demand from the European market. This quarter, the prices remain on the lower end compared with the previous quarter. As the weather grew warmer, concerns about tight supplies shifted to a potential decline in U.S. heating fuel demand. As a result of increasing production rates among enterprises, domestic gas supply and demand remain under control. In Dec, the price of Natural Gas in the U.S. was USD 6.0 per MMBtu Ex-Louisiana.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 2022, the Natural Gas price increased in the first half of the quarter with strong trading activities. In Oct, Beijing reportedly told state-owned natural gas importers to halt resales of cargoes to buyers in Europe and Asia to ensure China has enough supply for domestic needs this winter. During Oct, the price of Natural Gas in China surged to USD 6.31 per MMBtu Ex-Shanghai. Prices declined in Dec with an uncertain demand outlook as more countries considered restrictions on Chinese travelers with COVID infections spreading in the top NG-importing nation. The single biggest reason for falling Natural gas prices is China’s baffling COVID lockdowns.
Europe
At the end of this quarter, the Natural Gas price showcased a downtrend in the wake of rising product inventories and feeble market purchasing. With a slightly warmer forecast, fuel at storage sites delayed its use, allowing it to be stored longer for winter. German stockpiles were more than sufficient, declining the price trend. The downward movement of the costs was also driven by the rising use of wind power to produce electricity, replacing Natural gas. In Dec, the price of Natural Gas in Germany slides to Euro 117.7 MW-hr Ex-Hamburg. After a relatively mild autumn, German businesses and households saved more Natural Gas than required by the emergency plan.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In Q3 2022, the price of Natural Gas in the USA surged in the first half of the third quarter. The benchmark futures surged on the forecast for hotter weather and higher demand. Worries about Russian gas flow to Europe, record coal prices, and the expiration of the front-month contract remain the concern. In August, the USA's natural gas price surged to USD 8.68 per MMBtu. However, towards the end of this quarter, Natural gas costs hit low market fundamentals, as the market lost energy because U.S. production beat 100 Bcf/day for the first time. Freeport LNG has postponed its resumption of the plant from mid-Oct to Nov, which further declined the prices for the domestic market.
Asia Pacific
During the third quarter of 2022, Natural gas prices in the Asia Pacific region followed the same trend as in the rest of the global market. Cost surged in the first half of this quarter, with Russia fearing slashing supply again and worsening an Asian fuel shortage. Asia and Europe were in hot competition for the dwindling pool of LNG shipments. China's battle to fulfill peak power need following hydropower disturbances in the Sichuan district expanded the production cost among major downstream derivative venture. In India, the price of Natural Gas slipped in the second half of Q3, driven by lower production and a sharp drop in imports price. Indian gas importers could not source Liquefied Natural gas (LNG) from the spot market. Most supplies are headed to Europe, where buyers are willing to offer record-high prices ahead of winter amid sharp supply curbs from Russia. In September, the cost of Natural Gas in India was USD 8.20 per MMBtu Ex-Hazira.
Europe
European Natural Gas prices show an upward trend due to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline supply cut from Gazprom, Russia, to the European region. The front gas month costs at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the European benchmark for Natural Gas trading, bounced. The surge in energy and utility costs drives up the downstream derivative market, pushing inflation and squeezing the edges and margins among significant ventures. With the fresh rise in gas prices, the Euro currency hit the lowest level, causing the region to recession. With the quarter end, the cost of Natural Gas in Germany is USD 222 Mw-hr.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The prices of natural gas surged in Q2 2022 compared with the previous quarter in the US market due to market disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which resulted in such a price trajectory. Bullish market fundamentals and the backdrop of producers' inventories remained the key driving factors for price increases. Due to supply disruption, European unions are searching for alternatives to Russian gas imports, which drop the demand with the surge in prices. The commodity prices increase with weak purchasing power and lower investments due to squeezed profits and sales among the downstream enterprises. A fire at Freeport LNG's natural gas liquefaction plant in South Texas on June 8, 2022, has prompted the full shutdown of the office. The spot costs fell with feeble NYMEX futures for the next quarter. The prices of Natural Gas surged to their highest with the price of USD 9.3 per MMBtu on June 7.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, the prices of Natural Gas skyrocketed with supply constraints and strong demand from the Petrochemical market. Due to strong cost support, the Natural Gas market remained tepid this quarter compared with the previous quarter. In terms of production, particularly by private and joint venture companies, they expanded the costs because of production cuts among the endeavors. The prices rose because of tight supply and flooding interest from its downstream derivatives market. However, towards the end of the quarter, the prices slowed due to the gradual incoming of Russian Natural Gas cargoes in India and China.
Europe
In Q2 2022, the prices of Natural Gas remained on the higher end with strong market sentiments and a high purchasing appetite. After an exceptional price surge following the invasion of Ukraine in early March, prices fell back to levels but remained on the higher end. In Europe, changing temperature, the sharp fall in gas utilization, the development in LNG imports, and the high stock filling rates moderate costs. However, since mid-June, Russian gas supply slices through the Nord Stream pipeline and turnaround at Freeport LNG terminal in the US soared the spot prices again in the European market. In June 2022, Gazprom further tightened Gas supplies to European Union (EU), putting pressure on the major downstream derivative producers to meet the demand from the consumer's end
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In this quarter, the price of Natural Gas surged with rising tension between Russia and Ukraine and limited supply and bullish demand. February future contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) reached nearly $4.75 per MMBtu where price rally up to be strongest since gas future debuted more than 30 years ago. Downstream Methanol fuel applications had started to grow with consumption in automobile industry is also spotted to be on the higher side. US Methanol two largest marketers Methanex and Southern Chemical sales revenue increase with increase in the demand of Methanol as a fuel industry. Against the backdrop of Russia's attack on Ukraine, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that Lower 48 petroleum gas inventories dropped 129 Bcf for the week finishing, a slightly lighter draw than anticipated. Towards the end of the quarter, the price of Natural Gas surged to 4.94 Henry Hub Natural Gas USD per million Btu. Compared with previous quarter, the price of Natural Gas in US slipped by 6%.
Asia Pacific
In Asian region, the prices of Natural gas surged as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine hampered the prices in the region. In India, the price of Natural Gas ended on high note with price of USD 5.012 per MMBtu Ex-Hazira. Spot Naphtha prices extended their gain in India. However, the downstream derivative market was observed to be weak supported by deteriorating demand from the end user consumers. Bullish sentiments of Natural Gas in global market strengthens and provided producers leverage in pricing. CNG prices in the Indian market was surged driving up the cost of cooking commuting and electricity while increasing the fertilizer subsidy bill for the government. Compared with previous quarter, the price of Natural Gas in India slipped by 12% when compared with Q4 2021.
Europe
In Q1 2022, the energy and Natural Gas prices remained on the higher end with wild price swing and fear escalate about potential disruption in Russian supplies. US LNG exports to European region increased due to low inventories and strong market sentiments. It was also heard that the spot prices of Natural Gas in Europe exceed the Asian spot prices. In Germany, the price of Natural Gas towards the end of the quarter observed to be USD 5.5 per MMBtu. On 25th March, the US and European Union (EU) joint task force to provide the 15 billion cubic centimetres of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to Europe, which will slow the market tension.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In Q4, the prices of Natural gas touched the bottom in December compared with October 2021. In October, production disruptions caused by the landfall of hurricane Ida coupled with increasing demand for energy and lack of infrastructure meant that prices of Natural gas doubled since the beginning of the year. Towards the end of Q4, Natural Gas prices in the US dropped to their lowest in the last one month amidst expectations of a warmer-than-expected winter forecast. Henry Hub Natural Gas slipped down to USD 3.7 per million MMBtu levels in December due to lower contract settlements and weak futures in the global markets.
Asia Pacific
The prices of Natural Gas kept on decreasing month on month from October to December. In Q4, several buyers' year-end lull and wait-and-see stance have surrounded the region’s energy markets, causing the prices to remain within a range in the country. The downstream LNG market regained weakness on December 20th despite European supplies turning firmer due to continued tightness. Natural Gas prices were observed to be USD 3.97 per MMBtu for a larger part of December. As per market players, the domestic industry had high inventory levels. Natural Gas prices have largely stood rangebound during the weak on growing demand-related concerns across the as the Omicron scare pushed down global energy markets. Ex-Hazira price for Natural Gas has been assessed around INR 289100 per 1000 MMBtu as last week of Dec.
Europe
Gas prices in Europe reached unprecedented levels in Q4 2021. Fear that Europe might run out of gas in February or March drove the prices. Gazprom’s failure to fill its storage facilities in Europe was a significant driver of the perceived inadequacy of European reserves for the winter. Several factors have pushed the prices of Natural Gas amid strong demand as the effect of the pandemic lockdown eases. At the same time, import volume from Russia remains low due to disruption in gas flow and political tensions. Elevated gas prices pushed the electricity bills higher in the countries like Britain and Italy, which use a large amount of gas to generate power.
