For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
• In Q1 2025, the Natural Rubber (TSR) Price Index in North America witnessed fluctuating trends due to variable supply dynamics and mixed downstream performance.
• In January, the Natural Rubber (TSR) Spot Price declined amid bearish sentiment, driven by excess supply from Southeast Asia, falling import costs, and weak demand from the U.S. automotive sector.
• A key driver was the increased attractiveness of synthetic rubber due to declining crude oil prices, further pressuring the Natural Rubber (TSR) Price Index downward.
• In February, the market turned bullish. The onset of the wintering season in Southeast Asia created a severe supply crunch, which, combined with growing demand from the U.S. tire and automotive sectors, elevated the Price Index.
• March witnessed another shift back to bearish sentiment as producers in Asia began transitioning into the high-yield harvest season, increasing port arrivals.
• Despite consistent demand, the Natural Rubber (TSR) Price Index eased slightly due to rising inventories and macroeconomic concerns.
• The Natural Rubber (TSR) Production Cost Trend remained stable across Q1, while the Natural Rubber (TSR) Demand Outlook in the U.S. remained steady but sensitive to global trade developments.
Why did the price of Natural Rubber (TSR) change in April 2025 in the US?
• In April 2025, the Natural Rubber (TSR) Price Index decreased sharply (by approximately 7%) in North America due to increased global supply, elevated inventories, and cautious buying behavior post-February’s spike.
APAC
• The Natural Rubber (TSR) Price Index in the APAC region showed mixed sentiment during Q1 2025, largely influenced by shifting production cycles and holiday-driven demand fluctuations.
• In January, prices weakened as favorable weather conditions boosted output across Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia, while Chinese demand dipped ahead of the Lunar New Year.
• In February, the Natural Rubber (TSR) Spot Price surged amid tightening supply during the regional wintering season. Suspension of tapping and lower production in Southeast Asia created bullish momentum.
• March marked a moderation in the Price Index as harvesting resumed, pushing stocks higher and introducing mild bearish pressure.
• Trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly related to China’s slow industrial recovery, affected the Natural Rubber (TSR) Demand Outlook and capped aggressive buying.
• The Natural Rubber (TSR) Production Cost Trend remained elevated during February due to low output, but eased marginally in March as supply normalized.
Why did the price of Natural Rubber (TSR) change in April 2025 in the Asia?
• In April 2025, the Natural Rubber (TSR) Price Index in Asia dropped by 11%, reflecting an increase in harvesting activities, inventory buildup, and cooling demand post-festive restocking.
Europe
• In Q1 2025, the European Natural Rubber (TSR) Price Index moved in waves, reflecting shifting market fundamentals and global trade pressure.
• January began with a bearish tone due to improved Southeast Asian supply, lower import prices, and subdued automotive sector activity in key markets like Germany and France.
• Synthetic rubber gained traction due to falling crude oil prices, which weighed on the Natural Rubber (TSR) Spot Price in the region.
• In February, wintering season constraints in Asia, combined with logistical delays and consistent demand from European tire manufacturers, caused a bullish rally in the Price Index.
• However, March saw a reversal to a more conservative tone as supply stabilized, and economic uncertainty prompted cautious procurement behavior.
• Despite supply-side concerns, the Natural Rubber (TSR) Demand Outlook remained moderate due to restrained industrial activity and the delayed rollout of the EU Deforestation Regulation.
• The Natural Rubber (TSR) Production Cost Trend remained relatively flat in Q1, with minimal input cost volatility in Europe.
Why did the price of Natural Rubber (TSR) change in April 2025 in the Europe?
• In April 2025, the European Natural Rubber (TSR) Price Index declined by 6.9%, driven by higher import availability, increased domestic inventories, and weakening buyer confidence.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Natural Rubber (TSR) market experienced dynamic trends in Q4 2024, influenced by global supply constraints and fluctuating demand. In October, the market witnessed a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Adverse weather conditions in Southeast Asia, including heavy rainfall and flooding, disrupted rubber tapping and tightened supply, driving production costs higher. However, speculative trading and profit-taking introduced volatility, causing slight price corrections later in the month.
In November, bearish sentiments emerged as improved weather in exporting nations increased raw material availability, leading to lower import costs. The automotive sector, despite improved sales, exhibited cautious purchasing due to sufficient inventory levels, further dampening demand for natural rubber.
By December, the market reversed its earlier declines, driven by tightening supplies from Southeast Asia, where severe flooding caused significant reductions in rubber output. Supply disruptions coupled with rising import costs contributed to bullish market sentiments. Improved performance in the downstream automotive sector further supported demand. Overall, the US Natural Rubber market in Q4 2024 reflected the interplay of global supply challenges, cautious purchasing behaviors, and fluctuating downstream demand.
APAC
The Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the APAC region experienced mixed trends in Q4 2024, driven by dynamic supply and demand factors. In October, adverse weather conditions caused significant disruptions to rubber tapping, leading to supply constraints and an initial bullish market sentiment. However, speculative selling, profit-taking, and weaker-than-expected demand from China amid economic challenges created volatility, resulting in a slight decline by the month's end. The temporary delay in implementing the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) provided some relief to suppliers. In November, improved weather conditions early in the month allowed rubber-tapping to resume, leading to increased raw material availability. However, heavy rainfall later disrupted harvesting again, while limited demand from China and Europe, coupled with sufficient inventory levels, contributed to bearish market trends. Initiatives like the Rubber Delayed Sales project launched by the Rubber Authority of Thailand aimed to stabilize prices and support farmers. In December, the market rebounded as heavy rains disrupted production again, tightening supplies. This, combined with a resurgence in international orders and increased procurement activities from the automotive sector, contributed to bullish market sentiment, highlighting the interplay between environmental factors, supply dynamics, and global demand.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the European region exhibited fluctuating trends, driven by supply chain disruptions, regulatory changes, and global economic factors. In October, bullish sentiments dominated due to supply shortages caused by adverse weather in Southeast Asia, where heavy rains and flooding disrupted rubber tapping. These disruptions tightened supply, which, combined with delays in the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), supported market optimism. However, speculative selling and profit-taking introduced volatility, resulting in a slight downturn by the end of the month. November witnessed a bearish shift as improved weather conditions in Southeast Asia temporarily boosted supply. Despite subsequent weather disruptions, ample inventories in Europe and cautious purchasing behavior among market participants kept demand subdued. Meanwhile, the delay in EUDR implementation provided temporary relief but did not significantly impact overall market dynamics. In December, the market rebounded due to tightening supply caused by heavy rains in key exporting regions and increased import costs. Despite challenges such as port congestion and a slowdown in Germany’s automotive sector, bullish sentiments prevailed as market players adjusted to supply constraints and regulatory uncertainties.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Natural Rubber (TSR) market experienced a sharp upward trend, with the USA seeing the most pronounced price fluctuations. Several factors contributed to this surge in prices. Supply chain disruptions, particularly caused by adverse weather conditions in key producing regions, played a significant role in limiting the availability of Natural Rubber. This was compounded by increased production costs due to rising labor and raw material expenses. The automotive sector, a major consumer of Natural Rubber, also witnessed a rise in demand, further straining the already tight supply.
Additionally, plant shutdowns in major producing areas exacerbated the supply crunch, forcing suppliers to increase prices. The competition between Natural Rubber and synthetic alternatives intensified, further driving up demand and contributing to the price rise. The USA experienced a 19% price disparity between the first and second half of the quarter, underscoring the volatile nature of the market during this period.
By the end of Q3, Natural Rubber TSR 10 was priced at USD 2140/MT CFR Texas. The overall pricing environment was characterized by a bullish sentiment, as market players responded to supply constraints, higher production costs, and strong demand from key sectors. This highlighted the market's resilience amid challenging conditions and price pressures.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the APAC Region experienced a notable uptrend in prices, driven by a multitude of factors. Supply chain disruptions due to adverse weather conditions, including heavy rains and volcanic eruptions, significantly impacted the production and distribution of Natural Rubber (TSR), leading to a tightening of supply. These disruptions were further exacerbated by reduced harvesting enthusiasm among rubber farmers, adverse climate conditions, and increased freight charges, collectively contributing to the supply crunch. Additionally, fluctuating demand from downstream sectors such as the automotive and tire industries played a role in shaping market dynamics. Singapore witnessed the most significant price changes in the region, reflecting overall trends in price movements. The 3% increase from the previous quarter and a substantial 16% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter highlighted the volatility and upward trajectory of Natural Rubber prices. Despite challenges, disruptions, and plant shutdowns, the pricing landscape for Natural Rubber in the APAC Region during Q3 2024 displayed a robust and upward trend.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in Europe experienced a notable uptrend in prices, characterized by a 7% increase from the previous quarter. This surge was predominantly influenced by a combination of factors that propelled market sentiment towards a bullish trajectory. Adverse weather conditions in major rubber-producing regions, such as heavy rains and floods, significantly disrupted supply chains, leading to supply shortages and import cost escalations. Plant shutdowns in key exporting nations further exacerbated the supply constraints, intensifying the upward pressure on prices. Additionally, rising production costs and heightened competition from alternative synthetic rubber sources contributed to the price escalation. These factors, coupled with the seasonal nature of rubber tapping and the correlation with global economic indicators, underscored the positive pricing environment witnessed throughout the quarter. Germany, being a significant player in the natural rubber market, experienced the most substantial price changes within the region. The overall trend in Germany mirrored the broader European market, with prices reflecting a 19% increase between the first and second half of the quarter. The pricing dynamics in Germany underscored a prevailing positive sentiment, driven by supply chain disruptions, production challenges, and heightened demand from downstream sectors, particularly the Automotive and Tire industries.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for Natural Rubber (TSR) in North America has exhibited an upward trajectory. The quarter was marked by a series of significant factors that elevated market prices. Supply chain disruptions, primarily driven by adverse weather conditions, severely impacted latex availability, thereby increasing raw material costs. Abnormal weather patterns hindered the rubber-tapping process, resulting in reduced yields from Hevea trees and subsequent latex shortages. Concurrently, shipping delays and port congestion exacerbated supply constraints, further driving prices upward.
Focusing specifically on the USA, the country experienced the most pronounced price changes in the region. The bullish trend was fueled by robust demand from the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors, which continued to outstrip supply despite increased procurement activities. Noteworthy is the correlation between heightened vehicle sales and the limited rubber supply, pushing prices to new highs. Seasonal weather disruptions played a pivotal role, with the rainy season compounding the already strained supply chain. Furthermore, the fungal leaf-spot disease in rubber plantations added to yield performance woes, contributing to the rising costs. A significant price comparison reveals a 9% increase between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating a sharp escalation in market sentiment. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at 4%, reflecting a consistent increase throughout the quarter. The overall trend suggests a bullish market environment driven by supply challenges and strong demand. Plant shutdowns due to environmental disruptions further strained supply chains, contributing to the overall price surge.
Concluding Q2 2024, Natural Rubber TSR 10 CFR Texas in the USA reached a quarter-ending price of USD 1900/MT, underscoring a positive pricing environment characterized by robust demand and persistent supply constraints. The quarter has thus been decidedly favorable for market prices, anchored by a complex interplay of demand-supply dynamics and environmental factors.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the APAC region experienced a significant uptrend, driven primarily by a confluence of adverse weather conditions, supply chain disruptions, and heightened demand from the automotive and tire sectors. Factors such as fluctuating weather patterns, fungal leaf-spot diseases, and constrained latex availability have severely impacted rubber yield, escalating production costs. Additionally, the market has witnessed a large-scale crop shift towards more lucrative alternatives like palm oil and durian, further suppressing rubber plantation activities post-2016. These supply constraints have intensified bullish market sentiments, pushing prices upward consistently throughout the quarter. In Thailand, which saw the most pronounced price changes, the overall trend has been a marked increase. The second quarter's pricing environment has been predominantly positive, influenced by robust demand from downstream sectors and inadequate existing inventories. The correlation between supply disruptions and market demand has been evident, leading to an 8% price increase from the previous quarter. Consequently, the quarter ended with Natural Rubber (TSR) STR-20 priced at USD 1790/MT FOB Laem Chabang in Thailand, reflecting a steadfastly bullish market sentiment.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in Europe exhibited a distinct upward pricing trajectory. This quarter has seen a significant escalation in prices due to multifaceted disruptions in the supply chain, primarily originating from adverse climatic conditions, which hindered the availability of raw materials. Additionally, logistical bottlenecks, including container shortages and volcanic activity in key export regions, severely impeded the flow of natural rubber to Europe, further exacerbating supply constraints. The burgeoning effect of the new European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), set to be implemented at year-end, created preemptive procurement caution among major market players, thereby elevating prices as suppliers sought to secure compliant sources. Focusing specifically on Germany, which recorded the highest price volatility, the market experienced profound shifts driven by both exogenous and endogenous factors. The German manufacturing sector's slow recovery, despite a rising PMI, coupled with reduced automotive and tire industry demand, contrasted sharply with the acute supply shortages. Disruptions from the nationwide rail strike and ongoing farmer protests further strained the supply chain, leading to significant plant shutdowns and inventory deficits. The overall trend showcased a robust 14% price increase between the quarter’s first and second halves, reflecting pronounced price inflation due to tightening supply. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices surged by 8%, underscoring the exacerbated supply-demand imbalance. The quarter concluded on a bullish note with prices reaching USD 1900/MT for Natural Rubber TSR 10 (CFR Hamburg), signaling a persistently positive pricing environment despite the overarching challenges. This consistent uptrend highlights the severe impact of supply disruptions, regulatory pressures, and market hesitancy on the European natural rubber market, particularly in Germany.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs):
1. What is the current price of Natural Rubber (TSR)?
As of the end of April 2025, the Natural Rubber (TSR) Spot Price in Asia is trending lower due to easing supply-side constraints, with regional Price Index values showing a month-on-month decline of approximately 11%.
2. Who is the top Natural Rubber (TSR) producers in APAC?
The leading Natural Rubber (TSR) producers in APAC include Sri Trang Agro (Thailand), Halcyon Agri (Malaysia/Indonesia), and Vietnam Rubber Group (Vietnam).
3. What is the Natural Rubber (TSR) Price Forecast for the next quarter?
The Natural Rubber (TSR) Price Forecast indicates mild downward pressure heading into Q2 2025, due to higher yield season in Southeast Asia and cautious demand in key markets like China and the EU.
4. What is the Natural Rubber (TSR) Production Cost Trend in North America?
While North America is a net importer, the production cost trend is impacted by global logistics, import tariffs, and currency exchange rates. In Q1 2025, costs remained stable despite rising freight rates in February.
