For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Natural Rubber Price Index fell by 6.11% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting recent oversupply.
• The average Natural Rubber price for the quarter was approximately USD 1818.33/MT, CFR Houston imports.
• High inventories depressed the Natural Rubber Spot Price, narrowing spot-term premiums and weakening trade activity.
• Falling butadiene, related feedstock costs influenced the Natural Rubber Production Cost Trend, easing margin pressures.
• Muted automotive and industrial purchasing softened the Natural Rubber Demand Outlook, prompting importer replenishment strategies.
• Seasonal supply swings and logistics changes shaped the Natural Rubber Price Forecast for near-term stability.
• Tariff pauses and exporter shipment increases pressured the Natural Rubber Price Index, elevating volatility concerns.
• Contracted buying and improved shipping could support Natural Rubber prices, while inventories keep downward pressure.
Why did the price of Natural Rubber change in September 2025 in North America?
• Seasonal output increases in exporters created global oversupply, boosting US imports and limiting price support.
• High port and warehouse inventories allowed buyers to delay purchases, compressing spot demand and prices.
• Moderating industrial activity and softer feedstock costs reduced procurement urgency, restraining upward price near-term momentum.
APAC
• In Malaysia, the Natural Rubber Price Index fell by 5.0% quarter-over-quarter, due to weak demand.
• The average Natural Rubber price for the quarter was approximately USD 1355.67/MT, reported FOB Klang.
• Natural Rubber Spot Price action was limited while inventories remained comfortable and buyers stayed cautious.
• Natural Rubber Price Forecast anticipates modest term softness driven by balanced supply and cautious procurement.
• Natural Rubber Production Cost Trend showed rising input costs yet could not offset weaker demand.
• Natural Rubber Demand Outlook remained subdued as automotive and glove sectors carried out cautious procurement.
• Export demand softened while inventories remained adequate and Klang logistics ensured shipments, limiting price upside.
• Some smallholders reduced harvesting amid margin pressure, yet aggregate output remained steady without significant disruption.
Why did the price of Natural Rubber change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Weaker automotive and glove demand reduced procurement activity, applying downward pressure on Natural Rubber prices.
• Ample supply and smooth Klang logistics kept availability high, preventing price support from tighter markets.
• Rising input costs pressured producers but high inventories and cautious buying prevented cost pass through.
Europe
• In the Netherlands, the Natural Latex Rubber Price Index fell 9.6% quarter-over-quarter, driven by oversupply.
• The average Natural Latex Rubber price for the quarter was approximately USD 1780/MT, dampening demand.
• Natural Latex Rubber Spot Price softened as high Southeast Asian inventories pressured Rotterdam CFR levels.
• Natural Latex Rubber Price Forecast shows modest upside amid ample supplies and cautious importer behavior.
• Natural Latex Rubber Production Cost Trend eased as lower freight and input prices cut costs.
• Natural Latex Rubber Demand Outlook remained subdued with automotive and medical sectors delaying procurement, restocking.
• Natural Latex Rubber Price Index volatility limited as improved logistics increased flows, capping price spikes.
• Major exporter restocking cycles and Rotterdam inventories influenced buying patterns, restricting near-term upside for suppliers.
Why did the price of Natural Latex Rubber change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Southeast Asian oversupply and high exporter inventories reduced Rotterdam availability, exerting downward pressure on prices.
• Subdued automotive and medical procurement led buyers to delay purchases, sustaining weak demand into September.
• Improved logistics and easing port congestion increased flows, preventing sharp rallies despite tighter production origins.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The natural rubber spot price in North America in Q2 2025 followed a downward trajectory overall, with an average quarter-over-quarter fluctuation of about -3% in prices, reflecting consistent pressure from oversupply and muted demand; June saw prices dip significantly to around USD 1850 USD/MT before a slight uptick in July.
• In April, prices fell sharply due to weak demand from automotive, footwear, adhesives, and industrial goods sectors, compounded by trade policy-induced uncertainty and a drop in global container bookings by 49%, causing oversupply and cautious purchasing.
• May’s price drop intensified with continued oversupply, stockpiling effects reversing, and softer manufacturing activity amid a sub-50 PMI, while port improvements accelerated product flow, worsening saturation.
• June’s price dip resulted from increased Asian production entering a high-output season and easing tariffs that encouraged stock clearance at lower prices, alongside stable import logistics and declining synthetic rubber input costs, feeding into lower domestic prices.
• Natural Rubber Demand throughout Q2 was weak across major consuming sectors such as automotive and tires; buyers held back fresh procurement to manage high inventories amid economic uncertainties and trade tensions.
• Elevated inventories and cautious buyer behavior fostered expectations for prolonged subdued prices into the near term despite longer-term positive demand prospects linked to green manufacturing and renewable materials.
• The natural rubber production cost trend remained stable or slightly declined due to lower energy and input chemical prices, helping producers offset demand-side pressure to some extent.
• The Natural Rubber Demand demand outlook indicated soft industrial activity with modest PMI expansion but slower procurement, while construction and consumer goods sectors also trimmed rubber purchases responding to economic caution.
• Import dependency intensified North American sensitivity to global supply changes and pricing from Asian export hubs, making the regional price level vulnerable to external supply fluctuations and tariff-induced disruptions.
• Market participants expect limited price recovery in the short term without a revival in automotive and industrial manufacturing demand, driving fresh consumption and reducing inventories.
Asia Pacific (APAC)
• APAC natural rubber prices broadly declined in Q2 2025 with an average quarter-on-quarter drop around -4%, ending June near USD 1700 USD/MT, marking a notable decline due to increased production and sluggish downstream demand, before a minor uptick in July.
• April prices fell on expanding production in Thailand (up ~3%) aided by good weather and yields, combined with deflationary pressures and weakening industrial activity indicated by a PMI under 50.
• May saw continued price declines driven by abundant supply, weak demand from automotive and tire manufacturing sectors, and currency fluctuations that reduced competitiveness in export markets.
• June showed a mixed picture with manufacturing PMI rising to 51.7 signaling some sector expansion, but demand remained tepid, constrained by cautious downstream procurement and negative inflation trends.
• The regional natural rubber production cost trend showed mild upward pressure in June due to increased input costs after months of decline but overall remained moderate.
• The Natural Rubber Demand outlook was subdued throughout Q2 with major end-users like automotive and consumer goods sectors limiting purchases amid economic uncertainty and cautious inventory management.
• Natural Rubber Demand Export flows from Thailand and neighboring producers remained steady and well supplied, with no significant logistics disruptions, ensuring market availability but reinforcing pricing pressure.
• Inventory levels remained elevated, and buyers adopted short-term, need-based procurement strategies rather than long-term contracts amid demand weakness and global oversupply.
• The natural rubber price forecast reflects continuing softness in the near term with some potential stabilization as manufacturing sector improvements may drive modest demand recovery.
• Long-term Natural Rubber demand fundamentals remain positive due to growth in green manufacturing and sustainable material preferences, though these have been insufficient to offset current demand weakness.
Europe
• Europe experienced a downward price trend in Q2 2025 for natural rubber with an average quarter-on-quarter price fall of roughly -4.5%, reaching a low of approximately USD 1860 USD/MT in June, influenced by oversupply and muted demand, before a slight July recovery.
• April prices declined due to redirected supply flows from U.S. tariff changes, creating inventory surges at key European entry points like the Netherlands, alongside proactive stockpiling ahead of production slowdowns.
• The Euro’s appreciation against the USD boosted buying power, encouraging bulk imports that increased inventories and softened prices.
• May saw stable manufacturing but with cautious order reductions and widespread surplus stocks from Asian producers, which intensified price competition and pressured local producers to cut prices.
• Natural Rubber Demand in Europe remained weak in Q2, particularly from the automotive, pharmaceuticals, and personal care sectors, combined with a wait-and-watch purchasing approach amid expectations of further price declines.
• June featured improvement in manufacturing PMI (51.2), indicating growth, primarily export-driven, but rubber consumption demand stayed subdued, highlighting cautious procurement from automotive and tire manufacturers.
• Logistical bottlenecks eased compared to earlier months, improving shipment regularity and lowering landed costs, but competitive import pricing kept domestic margins tight.
• The natural rubber production cost trend benefited from lower upstream material prices and improved supply chain efficiency in June, easing cost pressures for manufacturers.
• Elevated inventories and ongoing price volatility pushed businesses to adjust stock levels strategically to mitigate supply disruptions and pricing risks.
• The Natural Rubber demand outlook foresees a potential gradual rebound later in the year as economic activity improves and inventories normalize, but short-term demand and prices will likely remain restrained.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The USA natural rubber market experienced notable price fluctuations in Q1 2025, influenced by supply dynamics, global trade policies, and demand-side uncertainties. January began with a sharp price decline due to ample supply, competitive offers from Asian suppliers, and high inventory levels. Buyers held significant leverage, securing favorable Q1 contracts amid weak consumer demand and economic caution, as reflected in a 1.2% drop in retail sales.
In February, prices rebounded temporarily following supply disruptions in Malaysia caused by adverse weather, aging plantations, and labor shortages. Rising import costs and logistical challenges contributed to price increases, though subdued domestic demand limited further gains. Economic uncertainty, trade policy speculation, and preemptive inventory buildup among tire and pharmaceutical manufacturers softened purchasing activity, keeping the market’s momentum weak.
March saw prices initially decline due to stable supply and improved logistics but later experienced a slight uptick as the U.S. imposed tariffs on key trading partners, prompting accelerated procurement. Inventory buildup ahead of anticipated tariff adjustments also supported prices. By quarter-end, prices had moderated overall, reflecting a well-supplied yet cautious market. Looking ahead, Q2 2025 may see continued volatility as trade policies evolve and demand conditions remain uncertain.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2025, Malaysia’s Natural Rubber market demonstrated a gradual upward price trend, driven by tightening supply conditions and consistent downstream demand. January began with a bearish tone as production outpaced demand, resulting in excess inventory and weaker export momentum. Although domestic consumption, particularly from the tire and pharmaceutical sectors, remained steady, the market struggled with oversupply and sluggish industrial activity, reflected by a Manufacturing PMI below 50.
However, February marked a sharp turnaround as seasonal constraints, including the dormant season and adverse El Niño-related weather, significantly reduced latex yields. Labor shortages and rising energy costs further limited production, while high export volumes to regions like Europe and the US curtailed domestic availability. This supply strain, coupled with strong demand from the automotive and medical sectors, propelled prices upward. In March, the market maintained its bullish tone, though at a more moderate pace.
A 4.2% year-on-year decline in rubber output and a 1.4% CPI increase reflected rising production costs and constrained supply. Tire and construction activity showed modest improvement, while inventory drawdowns signaled cautious market optimism. Overall, Q1 closed with a firm pricing environment, transitioning from early oversupply to supply-led price support, suggesting continued strength heading into the second quarter.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the Natural Rubber market in the Netherlands displayed notable volatility, marked by alternating periods of price drops and surges. January began with a sharp decline in prices due to an oversupplied global market, driven by high inventories and competitive offers from Asian suppliers. European buyers leveraged this situation to secure favorable Q1 contracts despite ongoing logistical challenges.
However, February witnessed a significant price rebound as adverse weather conditions, including El Niño-induced droughts and Thailand’s wintering season, constrained supply from major producers like Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Rising freight costs, port congestion, and strong demand from automotive, healthcare, and industrial sectors further intensified upward pressure on prices.
By March, the market shifted again as prices declined amid weak demand and ample inventories. Buyers showed caution, delaying new purchases while relying on existing stock. Simultaneously, ocean freight rates dropped, the Europe Peak Season Surcharge was removed, and the Euro appreciated against the U.S. Dollar—factors that collectively reduced import costs. Suppliers focused on stock clearance rather than new production, leading to downward pressure on prices. Overall, despite a brief surge in February, the quarter ended with a net downward trend in prices, driven by balanced demand, stable logistics, and strategic purchasing behavior.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The U.S. Natural Rubber market in Q4 2024 witnessed a fluctuating yet predominantly upward price trajectory, marked by supply chain constraints, rising raw material costs, and geopolitical disruptions. In October, seasonal demand from downstream industries and elevated shipping costs from Asian suppliers drove significant price hikes. Supply chain challenges, including strikes, limited domestic production, and extended delivery times, further strained inventories. Strategic stockpiling and rising Latex prices amplified the upward trend.
November saw a temporary price correction as inventories rebounded, competitive supplier strategies aligned with holiday demand, and record-high cargo processing eased pressures. However, concerns over looming tariff increases and disrupted port operations kept the market volatile.
December brought intensified pressures due to labor disputes, logistical bottlenecks, and preemptive inventory building ahead of potential trade policy changes under the incoming administration. Despite declining manufacturing activity and subdued demand, businesses faced heightened costs and distribution challenges. Overall, Q4 reflected a fundamental shift in the U.S. Natural Rubber market’s equilibrium, with sustained price volatility fueled by structural supply chain vulnerabilities and economic uncertainty heading into 2025.
Asia Pacific
Vietnam's Natural Rubber prices demonstrated notable volatility, influenced by fluctuating supply-demand dynamics, global uncertainties, and local market adjustments. In October 2024, Natural Rubber prices in Vietnam surged due to tight supply, robust demand from the pharmaceutical industry, and seasonal procurement pressures. Limited Latex availability further intensified supply constraints, propelling prices higher in both local and global markets.
November brought a slight decline in prices as supply chain adjustments and improved weather conditions in key production regions boosted raw material availability. Rising inventories created downward pressure, while stable downstream tire production offered modest support. However, destocking efforts exacerbated oversupply, prolonging the market's bearish sentiment. Vietnam's Manufacturing PMI declined marginally to 50.8 but continued to indicate growth for the second month.
December saw a sharp rebound in Natural Rubber prices, driven by weather-related supply shortages, strong export performance, and heightened demand from automotive and manufacturing sectors. Vietnam’s record-high export values solidified its position as a key global supplier, despite external pressures such as geopolitical tensions and China's economic slowdown.
Europe
Overall Trend of Q4 2024 showcased Volatile and downward, marked by an initial surge followed by a bearish trajectory. October witnessed a sharp price increase driven by high seasonal demand from downstream sectors, escalating shipping costs from Asia, and rising fuel prices. Supply chain disruptions, limited domestic production, and prolonged delivery timelines forced traders to explore alternative logistics, while rising Latex prices amplified production costs. Strong export demand further intensified price pressures.
In November, the market reversed, entering a bearish phase due to weak demand, oversupply, and favorable production conditions. Reduced Eurozone business activity and high inventories led manufacturers to implement aggressive price cuts, reinforcing the downward trend. Spot market activity remained subdued as subdued demand persisted.
The quarter highlighted structural challenges, including reduced Chinese export volumes, blank sailings limiting logistics capacity, and robust seasonal demand. These disruptions created a seller’s market, forcing buyers to accept premium pricing. To navigate this, market participants must prioritize supply chain resilience and adjust procurement strategies to balance cost and supply security effectively amidst a rapidly shifting landscape.
