For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, the NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by rising production costs.
• NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) production costs strengthened from a 2.6% year-over-year PPI rise in August 2025.
• Domestic demand for soybean oil, a key feedstock, surged for biofuel production in Q3 2025.
• Wholesale electricity prices strengthened across most US regions in 2025, elevating NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) manufacturing costs.
• NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) demand outlook was mixed; retail sales increased 5.42% year-over-year in September 2025.
• Consumer confidence declined, with 4.3% unemployment and 3.0% CPI rise in September 2025, tempering NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) demand.
• Industrial production showed weak 0.1% year-over-year growth in September 2025, indicating subdued industrial demand.
• The NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) Price Index is forecast to face continued upward pressure from sustained feedstock and energy costs.
Why did the price of NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) change in September 2025 in North America?
• Production costs for NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) increased from a 2.6% year-over-year PPI rise in August 2025.
• Soybean oil prices were raised in July 2025; natural gas feedstock costs strengthened in September 2025.
• Domestic demand for soybean oil for biofuel production surged in Q3 2025, tightening feedstock.
Europe
• In Germany, the NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by firm feedstock costs and declining vegetable oil stocks.
• NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) production costs faced upward pressure from firm feedstock prices and rising wholesale electricity costs in Q3 2025.
• Global vegetable oil market strain, with projected declines in rapeseed and sunflower seed oil supplies, impacted NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) availability.
• NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) demand outlook was mixed; retail sales growth slowed to 0.2% in September 2025, while industrial production contracted by 1.0%.
• Vegetable oil stocks in Europe declined in 2025, particularly for crop-based feedstocks, tightening NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) supply.
• Demand for vegetable oils from the European biodiesel sector strengthened in 2025 due to mandates, supporting NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) consumption.
• EU imports of major vegetable oils decreased between October 2024 and August 2025, influencing NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) trade flows.
• Unemployment rose to 3.9% and CPI to 2.4% in September 2025, affecting consumer purchasing power for NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) end-products.
Why did the price of NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Firm feedstock costs and declining vegetable oil stocks exerted upward pressure on prices.
• Industrial production contracted 1.0% in September 2025, moderating demand for industrial applications.
• Retail sales growth slowed to 0.2% in September 2025, impacting consumer goods demand.
APAC
• In China, the NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by weak industrial demand.
• NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) production costs were impacted by crude palm oil feedstock, which remained stable to moderately strengthened in Q3 2025.
• Elevated natural gas prices in Asian import markets contributed to higher NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) energy costs during Q3 2025.
• China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in September 2025, reflecting subdued consumer spending for NFP-DEW (VEG FAT).
• The Manufacturing Index was contracting in September 2025, signaling reduced industrial activity and NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) demand.
• Industrial production grew by 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, offering some counter-balance to overall demand.
• Retail sales increased by 3.0% year-on-year in September 2025, supporting NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) demand in consumer goods.
• Combined inventories of major vegetable oils increased in August 2025, adding to NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) supply availability.
Why did the price of NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Weak consumer confidence (89.6 index, September 2025) and declining CPI (-0.3%) dampened NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) demand.
• Contracting Manufacturing Index and a -2.3% PPI in September 2025 indicated reduced industrial demand.
• Increased combined vegetable oil inventories in August 2025 contributed to downward pressure on NFP-DEW (VEG FAT) prices.