For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Nitrogen Price Index rose by 0.39% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting inventories and seasonal weakness.
• The average Nitrogen price for the quarter was approximately USD 254.33/MT, FOB Illinois reported levels.
• Nitrogen Spot Price remained uneven across regional hubs amid selective buying and constrained terminal inventories.
• Nitrogen Price Forecast indicates gains into autumn driven by restocking and seasonal agricultural demand recovery.
• Nitrogen Demand Outlook remains subdued as application rates stay limited following planting and cautious procurement.
• Elevated inventories pressured the Nitrogen Price Index, while selective restocking countered sharper declines at terminals.
• Export demand remained limited; a brief force majeure reduced consumption but did not tighten availability.
Why did the price of Nitrogen change in September 2025 in North America?
• High inventory levels and seasonal harvesting reduced domestic offtake, exerting downward pressure on nitrogen prices.
• Elevated import and logistics costs supported price floors even as distributors delayed bulk procurement uncertainty.
• Localized operational disruptions briefly curbed consumption, but limited export demand prevented substantial domestic tightening thereby.
APAC
• In India, the Nitrogen Price Index fell by 1.50% quarter-over-quarter, driven by high inventory levels.
• The average Nitrogen price for the quarter was approximately INR 44485/MT, based on spot trades.
• Nitrogen Spot Price moderated amid ample distribution stocks, limiting aggressive bidding as farmers delayed procurement.
• Nitrogen Price Forecast indicates mild volatility from seasonal demand shifts and broadly steady domestic production.
• Nitrogen Demand Outlook is neutral as Kharif sowing completes and restocking awaits Rabi procurement signals.
• Nitrogen Price Index pressure persisted due to inventory carryover and limited export uptake from buyers.
• Domestic plants operated steadily with limited scheduled maintenance, keeping supply reliable and near-term disruptions minimal.
Why did the price of Nitrogen change in September 2025 in APAC?
• High inventory levels at distribution centers reduced spot buying urgency, weighing on domestic prices short-term.
• Seasonal Kharif completion softened fertilizer demand, limiting restocking and reducing buying pressure across key states.
• Stable ammonia feedstock costs and steady production kept Production Cost Trend stable, constraining price upside.
Europe
• In Germany, the Nitrogen Price Index increased quarter-over-quarter, influenced by inventory levels and seasonal factors.
• Nitrogen Spot Price varied across regional centers due to selective purchasing and limited terminal stocks.
• Nitrogen Price Forecast anticipates upward movement into autumn, supported by restocking and recovering agricultural demand.
• Nitrogen Demand Outlook stayed moderate, with application rates restrained after planting and cautious buying.
• High inventories weighed on the Nitrogen Price Index, though targeted restocking mitigated steeper drops at terminals.
• Export interest remained low; a short-term force majeure lowered usage but did not significantly reduce availability.
Why did the price of Nitrogen change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Abundant inventory levels and the harvesting season curbed domestic uptake, pushing nitrogen prices downward.
• Increased import and logistics costs provided a price floor, even as distributors postponed large-scale purchases amid uncertainty.
• Temporary plant disruptions reduced consumption briefly, but weak export demand prevented notable tightening in domestic supply.
MEA
• In Congo, the Nitrogen Price Index fell by 0.075% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting oversupply and weak agricultural demand.
• The average Nitrogen price for the quarter was approximately USD 1332.33/MT. reported in CFR Matadi assessments.
• Tightened inventories and elevated freight pushed the Nitrogen Spot Price upward despite still-muted inland buying interest.
• Nitrogen Price Forecast suggests modest recovery driven by restocking and seasonal agricultural demand uptick in September.
• Rising freight and origin port congestion underpin the Nitrogen Production Cost Trend, lifting landed import costs.
• The Nitrogen Demand Outlook points to stronger uptake with short-wet season arrival, supporting firmer Price Index readings.
• High distributor stocks pressured the Nitrogen Price Index earlier, though targeted restocking triggered localized upward pressure.
• Consistent imports from South Africa and Mozambique stabilized supply, while Nitrogen Spot Price offers reflected origin congestion.
Why did the price of Nitrogen change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Elevated inventories and off-season agricultural inactivity reduced immediate procurement, pressuring September price levels across regions.
• Higher freight and South African port delays raised landed costs, transmitting upward pressure onto importers.
• Seasonal buying ahead of short-wet season supported restocking, tightening availability and nudging prices higher locally.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• Nitrogen prices in the U.S trended higher in April 2025, supported by stronger urea applications during the peak spring planting window as improved Midwest weather drove field activity for crops like corn and rice. Agro-dealers restocked actively, while ammonia consumption stayed soft due to limited industrial use.
• Supply remained steady as producers operated at normal rates following March disruptions, with inventories gradually thinning in agricultural hubs. Logistics and exports to Latin America functioned smoothly, though suppliers managed production conservatively to avoid oversupply as seasonal offtake accelerated.
• By May, prices softened as spring fieldwork neared completion and restocking momentum faded. Weather-related delays in upper river regions slowed final applications, prompting cautious procurement and spot buying despite stable natural gas costs and steady export flows.
• In June, prices moved lower amid the post-planting lull and elevated inventories, as most corn acreage was already planted and downstream applications slowed. Buyers focused on drawing down stocks, while modest exports and muted ammonia demand left the market subdued.
Why did the price of Nitrogen change in July 2025 in North America?
• In July, the Nitrogen Price Index in North America declined slightly as most early-cycle crop requirements were already met, leaving application rates low and dampening fresh demand.
• The Nitrogen Production Cost Trend held steady with natural gas feedstock prices stable, but producers trimmed offers to encourage movement as domestic consumption slowed and export flows stayed muted.
• The Nitrogen Price Forecast for August points to continued mild weakness, as subdued agricultural uptake and quiet trade channels are expected to keep prices under modest downward pressure.
APAC
• Nitrogen prices in India moved higher in April 2025 as early monsoon forecasts and favorable irrigation conditions drove aggressive procurement ahead of Kharif planting, with dealers and cooperatives restocking heavily to meet demand for crops like rice, cotton, and vegetables.
• Manufacturing output stayed consistent, with domestic producers operating steadily and inventories well-positioned to handle the surge in April demand. Logistics remained smooth, enabling rapid dispatch across key agricultural regions despite intensified dealer restocking.
• By May, prices eased as most early demand had been fulfilled, leaving distribution hubs with high stock levels. Procurement slowed even as field preparations advanced, with buyers focusing on rotating inventories and avoiding excess purchases amid stable ammonia and natural gas costs.
• In June, prices softened further despite robust urea consumption during active Kharif sowing. Elevated inventories, steady domestic production, and subdued industrial demand kept sentiment bearish, with buyers restricting purchases to contracted volumes while awaiting stronger restocking triggers.
Why did the price of Nitrogen change in July 2025 in Asia?
• In July, the Nitrogen Price Index in India declined as elevated inventory levels at distribution hubs and tapering fertilizer demand, with the Kharif season nearing completion, reduced fresh purchasing from cooperatives and wholesalers.
• The Nitrogen Production Cost Trend stayed steady, with natural gas feedstock prices relatively flat, allowing producers to adjust offers downward as downstream intake slowed.
• The Nitrogen Price Forecast for August signals continued mild softness, as early crop maturity in several regions and sufficient stock levels are expected to keep spot demand subdued and prices under pressure.
Europe
• Nitrogen prices rose in April 2025 as peak fertilizer application for cereals, rapeseed, and pasture drove heavy procurement across Germany and other EU regions. Farmers and distributors stocked aggressively to support planting and early growth stages, keeping transaction volumes elevated.
• In May, prices stayed supported, with demand holding for late-planted crops even as the peak season wound down. Buyers gradually shifted to shorter cycles, focusing on meeting near-term field needs rather than bulk replenishment, which softened trading momentum.
• By June, prices eased as most fertilization programs concluded and top-dressing demand slowed sharply. With agricultural activity tapering, inventories built up at distribution hubs while distributors limited fresh orders to avoid excess stock during the summer lull.
• Through the low-demand summer window, consumption is expected to remain muted as crops near maturity and fieldwork slows, with most buyers favoring only essential purchases until pre-autumn preparations begin.
Why did the price of Nitrogen change in July 2025 in Europe?
• In July, the Nitrogen Price Index in Europe declined as fertilizer demand stayed low post-spring application, with most crops nearing maturity and only limited top-dressing on late-planted fields.
• The Nitrogen Production Cost Trend remained steady, with natural gas feedstock prices flat, but producers reduced offers to stimulate movement as summer heat and dry conditions further curbed fertilizer use.
• The Nitrogen Price Forecast for August signals continued mild declines, as subdued application rates and completed fertilization cycles are expected to keep transaction volumes and prices under pressure.
MEA
• Nitrogen prices in Congo climbed in April 2025, supported by steady procurement during the wet-to-dry transition as field applications for cassava, maize, and rice advanced. Regular import flows from South Africa and Mozambique, coupled with efficient operations at Matadi Port, ensured smooth availability, allowing buyers to secure supplies without disruption.
• By May, prices softened as the dry season took hold, curbing fertilizer use across major crop belts. Minimal fieldwork and comfortable inventory levels discouraged fresh contracts, while import arrivals slightly outpaced domestic drawdowns, creating mild oversupply and prompting sellers to trim offers.
• In June, prices continued to edge lower as agricultural demand slowed sharply during the peak dry-season lull. Despite steady imports and efficient port handling, inventory accumulation deepened, and traders adopted conservative shipment volumes to align with stagnant local offtake.
• With demand unlikely to rebound before the next rainfall cycle, nitrogen consumption in Congo is expected to remain subdued, with inventories and seasonal inactivity keeping market sentiment soft.
Why did the price of Nitrogen change in July 2025 in the MEA?
• In July, the Nitrogen Price Index in MEA declined as fertilizer demand dropped to seasonal lows during the peak dry season, with reduced application rates curbing procurement activity.
• The Nitrogen Production Cost Trend remained steady, with natural gas feedstock prices stable, but producers lowered offers to stimulate buying as transaction volumes thinned.
• The Nitrogen Price Forecast for August suggests continued softness, as cautious purchasing behavior and weak fertilizer application rates are expected to keep spot trade limited and prices under pressure.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
Throughout Q1 2025, the nitrogen (fertilizer) market in North America showed a fluctuating but generally resilient trend. In January, prices rose slightly, supported by restocking ahead of the spring planting season and supply tightness caused by winter-related logistical disruptions. Strong agricultural demand, especially from corn and wheat growers, further fueled price strength as buyers secured inputs early.
However, February saw a mild price correction, driven by high inventory levels that had built up from aggressive January procurement. Despite steady consumption, ample supply from major producers maintained downward pressure on prices. March followed with a slight decline in prices, as improved supply conditions and moderate restocking activity balanced out disruptions at a few production sites.
Demand remained consistent for urea, though the ammonia offtake was weaker amid limited industrial activity and planting delays caused by adverse weather. Export activity to Latin America provided some support, but the global trade sentiment remained cautious due to tariff concerns. Nitrogen prices in the US closed Q1 2025 at USD 250/MT FOB Illinois.
APAC
Throughout Q1 2025, the nitrogen (fertilizer) market in Asia-Pacific (APAC), particularly in India, followed a consistent upward trend. In January 2025, prices edged slightly higher as demand surged during the peak Rabi cropping season. Despite stable domestic production, elevated import costs and government procurement efforts tightened global supply competition, reinforcing bullish pricing. February sustained this momentum, with further price increases driven by tightening inventories, steady crop nutrition requirements, and government-backed distribution programs. Early Kharif preparations also supported stronger offtake. In March 2025, nitrogen prices rose again in the region, fueled by robust field activity and active pre-monsoon restocking across key agricultural regions. A favorable monsoon forecast and a notable increase in agricultural exports bolstered sentiment, while tight inventories in interior regions added pressure. Supply remained steady throughout the quarter, though regional distribution delays and rising usage rates kept the market firm. With strong seasonal demand, limited inventory recovery, and stable production, the APAC nitrogen market maintained a bullish tone through Q1 2025.
MEA
Throughout Q1 2025, the nitrogen (fertilizer) market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA), with a focus on Congo, experienced mixed price movements driven by shifting import dynamics, seasonal agricultural activity, and inventory adjustments. In January, prices rose slightly due to elevated import costs from key exporting nations and logistical hurdles, even as domestic demand remained steady ahead of the dry season. February saw a reversal, with prices declining amid high inventory levels and improved supply chain efficiency. Softer offers from North African suppliers and stabilized port operations at Matadi contributed to easing costs. By March, prices continued to fall as excess stock from earlier shipments, along with reduced shipping costs and improved vessel clearance, weighed on market sentiment. Despite the onset of the secondary planting season, demand remained moderate due to delayed field activity caused by heavy rains and cautious procurement behavior. Traders largely avoided bulk orders, resulting in a subdued trading environment, even as availability across the region remained adequate.
Europe
Throughout Q1 2025, the nitrogen (fertilizer) market in Europe followed a mixed trajectory, starting with a slight price rise in January as restocking activity picked up ahead of the spring planting season. Despite cold weather limiting immediate field applications, distributors increased procurement in anticipation of growing fertilizer demand. However, industrial usage remained muted, and logistical delays in Belgium from Storm Éowyn disrupted supply chains briefly, though high port inventories at Antwerp ensured continued availability. In February, prices saw a mild correction as elevated inventory levels, combined with steady imports from the importing nations, softened the market. While spring sowing preparations led to a gradual uptick in agricultural demand—strikes and congestion at Belgian ports added logistical strain without significantly impacting supply. By March, prices edged lower amid strong competition among regional importers and persistent weakness in non-agricultural sectors. Though agricultural consumption remained stable during early-season planting. Nitrogen prices in Europe closed Q1 2025 on a softer note, pressured by high inventories and limited demand upside.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, nitrogen prices in North America experienced varied trends, driven by changes in agricultural demand and supply dynamics. In the U.S., the market saw notable fluctuations, with prices declining by 1.6% in October as supply constraints eased and post-harvest procurement slowed. The completion of the corn and soybean harvests contributed to reduced demand, allowing inventory levels to stabilize and alleviating pressure on prices.
In November, prices decreased further by 0.8%, reflecting robust supply and minimal stockpiling during the post-harvest period. Improved domestic production and increased imports from global markets maintained adequate availability, while cautious buying behavior among farmers restrained demand. Suppliers offered discounts to manage inventory, resulting in subdued market activity during the off-season.
By December, nitrogen fertilizer prices rebounded, increasing by 2% as agricultural demand strengthened ahead of spring planting preparations. Stable supply dynamics and consistent domestic production supported the modest price rise. Farmers actively procured fertilizers for nitrogen-intensive crops such as corn, bolstering consumption levels.
APAC
In Q4 2024, nitrogen prices in APAC exhibited mixed trends influenced by agricultural demand and global market dynamics. In India, the market saw the most significant price changes within the region. October recorded a 3.4% increase as farmers ramped up procurement for Rabi crops such as wheat and barley, supported by government subsidies that encouraged fertilizer usage. Across APAC, October saw prices increase due to robust procurement ahead of planting seasons and tighter global supply. In November, prices slightly declined as export volumes from key suppliers like China improved, easing regional supply constraints. By December, prices rose again, driven by higher import costs and renewed agricultural demand in preparation for the winter season.
In India, November prices dipped by 1.2% due to the conclusion of the sowing season, with ample inventories and softened global urea prices further contributing to the decline. In December, prices rebounded by 2.5% as import costs increased and steady demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea and ammonium nitrate persisted, ensuring optimal crop support during the ongoing Rabi.
Europe
In Q4 2024, nitrogen prices in Europe followed a mixed trend influenced by seasonal demand, energy costs, and market dynamics. In Germany, prices declined in October due to oversupply and reduced demand following the harvest season. Farmers slowed procurement activities, focusing on existing inventories while awaiting potential price reductions. The agricultural sector exhibited minimal urgency, contributing to the subdued market sentiment.
In November, prices continued to soften as supply levels remained high and demand from key agricultural and industrial sectors stayed muted. Domestic production was steady, supported by stable natural gas availability, and imports from North Africa and the Middle East further bolstered supply. The weak off-season demand led to restrained market activity, keeping prices under pressure.
By December, nitrogen prices showed a slight recovery as agricultural demand for winter crops like wheat and barley improved. Farmers began sourcing fertilizers in preparation for the early spring planting season, providing some support to market dynamics. Despite increased activity, cautious purchasing strategies and high energy costs constrained the overall price rebound.
MEA
In Q4 2024, nitrogen prices in the MEA region showed varied trends, reflecting global supply chain dynamics, local agricultural activity, and logistical challenges. In the Congo, prices decreased in October and November due to improved global nitrogen supply and moderated procurement activities post-harvest. However, December saw a slight increase in prices, driven by higher import costs and preparation for the upcoming dry season planting.
In the Congo, nitrogen fertilizer supply remained heavily reliant on imports, with minimal local production. Import volumes increased as global prices eased earlier in the quarter, allowing suppliers to replenish inventories. However, logistical challenges, including high transportation costs and delays, continued to strain efficient distribution, particularly in rural areas. December’s price uptick reflected rising freight costs and elevated global production expenses, which filtered into the domestic market.
Demand in the Congo followed seasonal patterns. During October and November, post-harvest activities reduced the urgency for fertilizer application, dampening overall market activity. By December, moderate demand re-emerged as farmers began field preparations and planted shorter-cycle crops. Despite rising costs, nitrogen fertilizers remained crucial for agricultural productivity, ensuring steady, necessity-driven procurement.
