For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. Oleic acid market saw significant price fluctuations, beginning with a bearish trend in January. Prices fell by around 3% due to weak demand across key sectors such as food, pharmaceuticals, and personal care. High inventory levels and global oversupply, coupled with port congestion, contributed to subdued market activity.
However, by February, the market shifted as global supply disruptions, particularly from Malaysia and Indonesia, led to reduced palm oil production, a key raw material for Oleic acid. This resulted in rising import costs and an uptick in prices, further fueled by strong domestic demand from industries like food, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals. Logistical delays and increased freight costs exacerbated the situation, reinforcing upward pressure on prices.
By March, the market continued its upward trajectory, with prices rising due to steady demand and disruptions caused by new tariffs on key suppliers like China. Preemptive buying from industries concerned about future cost increases and further port congestion tightened supply and further elevated prices. The quarter ended with a bullish sentiment, and while supply chain issues persisted, the outlook for Q2 suggests that prices may continue to rise, though potentially at a slower pace as logistical challenges stabilize.
Asia Pacific
In the first quarter of 2025, the Oleic Acid market in Indonesia witnessed a notable upward price trend, primarily driven by persistent supply-side disruptions and stable demand from downstream sectors. In January, prices initially faced downward pressure due to an oversupply created by increased domestic oleochemical production and reduced import volumes. Weak palm oil prices across Southeast Asia further pulled down Oleic Acid valuations.
However, toward the end of the month, signs of market stabilization emerged as palm oil prices began to recover. In February, adverse weather conditions linked to El Niño, labor shortages, rising energy costs, and inflation significantly disrupted palm oil production. These factors, along with strong international demand and high export commitments, tightened domestic supply and drove Oleic Acid prices higher. The upward momentum continued into March, fueled by flood-related disruptions in palm oil harvesting and reduced inventories from the previous month.
Although domestic demand was relatively soft and exports slowed slightly, the limited availability of palm oil as a raw material sustained the price increases. Strong buying interest from the food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical industries further supported the market. Overall, Q1 2025 closed with a firm increase in Oleic Acid prices in Indonesia, shaped largely by raw material constraints and ongoing procurement efforts amid supply uncertainty.
Europe
The price trend for Oleic acid in the Netherlands during Q1 2025 experienced significant fluctuations, starting with a sharp decline in January. This drop was primarily due to a well-supplied market, where competitive offers from Asian suppliers and ample inventory levels allowed European buyers to secure favorable contracts. Despite ongoing logistical issues, the market conditions favored buyers, and pricing power remained with them early in the quarter.
However, in February, Oleic acid prices surged as palm oil costs, the key raw material, spiked due to El Niño-induced droughts in Malaysia and Indonesia. The rising costs of palm oil, combined with high freight charges and shipping delays, led to increased import and production costs. At the same time, demand remained strong, especially from sectors like food, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals, pushing prices higher.
By March, prices rose further due to significant supply chain disruptions across Europe, including port congestion and labor strikes. These delays in deliveries tightened supply, giving suppliers more control over pricing. With steady demand and restocking efforts from key industries, the price trend firmed, signaling a shift from buyer-driven conditions to supplier-dominant pricing as the quarter ended. Overall, Q1 2025 saw Oleic acid prices increase due to rising costs and supply constraints.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The U.S. Oleic Acid market experienced a sharp downward trend throughout Q4 2024, driven by persistent oversupply and weak demand. In October, prices fell significantly due to market saturation caused by stable production levels, improved logistics, and subdued demand. Despite price discounts, inventory buildup and bearish sentiment dominated, with external pressures from softer crude oil prices, hurricane disruptions, and port strikes compounding the situation.
November saw further price declines as reduced domestic inventories and lower export prices created arbitrage opportunities for U.S. importers. Competitive pricing ahead of the holiday season failed to stimulate demand, with cautious procurement strategies prevailing. Concerns over potential port tariffs further heightened market uncertainty.
In December, the Oleic Acid market remained under pressure as weak demand from pharmaceuticals and other downstream sectors coincided with elevated inventories and increased competition from Asian imports. Export orders dropped, reflecting weaker global demand and buyer hesitation ahead of anticipated policy changes under the incoming U.S. administration. Overall, Q4 2024 was marked by aggressive destocking, pessimistic market sentiment, and declining prices, culminating in the sharpest output decline in 18 months.
Asia Pacific
The Indonesian Oleic Acid market experienced a persistent downward trend throughout Q4 2024, characterized by a prolonged price decline and weak demand dynamics. In October and November, subdued demand, reduced production costs, and lower logistics expenses contributed to the bearish market sentiment. Regional manufacturers and importers adopted cautious strategies, emphasizing conservative production and strict inventory management. Weak downstream consumption, stagnant trading activity, and buyers’ financial constraints further suppressed procurement, reinforcing the price downturn.
Declining export prices of raw material palm oil, driven by competition from alternative edible oils like soybean and sunflower oil, added pressure. Major importing regions such as South Asia and Europe showed limited interest, expecting further price reductions. A global oversupply of edible oils compounded the situation, enabling producers to sustain competitive pricing without immediate recovery.
The synchronized price decline across producing nations signals a structural market shift rather than a temporary correction. Unless there is a demand resurgence or production cuts, the Indonesian Oleic Acid market is expected to remain under pressure, granting significant negotiating power to buyers in the near term.
Europe
The Oleic Acid market in the Netherlands experienced a significant price decline throughout Q4 2024, primarily driven by surplus supply and weak demand. Despite reduced capacity at some plants, the market was oversupplied due to the restart of other facilities and stable raw material supplies. Aggressive discounts by manufacturers failed to stimulate sufficient demand, leading to growing inventories and a pessimistic market outlook
In October, falling logistics costs allowed further price reductions, exacerbating the oversupply issue. Buyers capitalized on ample stock availability and weak market sentiment, securing lower prices. November saw a sharp price drop due to dwindling local stock levels and declining export prices, creating arbitrage opportunities. However, import volumes remained subdued as end-users adopted a cautious stance amid economic uncertainty.
Throughout the quarter, suppliers employed aggressive pricing strategies to manage excess inventory and spur sales ahead of the holiday season. The European Oleic Acid market similarly faced bearish trends due to surplus availability and weak downstream demand. Overall, the Q4 trend reflected a supply-driven price decline, with bearish conditions persisting due to imbalanced supply-demand dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of 2024, the North American Oleic Acid market experienced contrasting price trends. July and August saw upward momentum in prices, driven by a resurgence in downstream procurement activities and increased freight charges. Demand from regional and neighboring markets remained steady, while rising raw material costs—especially for Palm oil—escalated production expenses.
Additionally, heightened global supply chain costs, supply challenges from China, and currency fluctuations added upward pressure. The August price surge was notably impacted by the anticipated Zhongyuan Festival and market closures in October, combined with increased import costs due to a weakened U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions that drove up crude oil prices. Ocean carriers also raised shipping rates amid vessel shortages, while new tariffs on Chinese imports further pressured prices and influenced pharmaceutical trade dynamics.
However, in September, market conditions shifted, leading to a price decline. Oversupply issues emerged, coupled with weakened demand both domestically and from neighboring regions. To adapt, U.S. manufacturers reduced production, leading to the first decrease in supplier lead times in three months. As inventory levels grew, participants began destocking at discounted prices, and end-users largely shifted to need-based purchasing, further easing demand.
Asia Pacific
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed substantial price fluctuations in the Indonesian Oleic Acid market, reflecting the impact of both global and local factors. In July, prices surged due to intensified demand and supply chain disruptions stemming from Asian port congestion, which had global ripple effects. This upward trend was supported by increasing Palm Oil prices, critical to Oleic Acid production, and was further influenced by a stronger Indonesian rupiah, adding export costs for international buyers. Despite higher raw material and production costs, Indonesian market players strategically leveraged arbitrage opportunities, maintaining market engagement despite economic challenges.
In August, Indonesia strengthened its position as a key Oleic Acid exporter, benefiting from competitive production costs, stable output, and favorable geopolitical conditions. Rising crude oil prices, influenced by Middle Eastern tensions, increased supply chain costs globally but positively impacted Indonesian exporters. Limited global inventories, along with planned shutdowns at international facilities, further boosted Indonesian exports. Shipping rates also increased due to limited vessel availability, providing additional support for exporters.
By September, prices began to decline, driven by reduced production costs from lower energy expenses. However, continued supply chain challenges, particularly port congestion, introduced ongoing uncertainty. Weak demand from end-use sectors and rising storage costs led to excess stock levels, prompting producers to reduce production and offload inventory. This shift marked a significant price decline as Q3 closed, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance and a complex market landscape for Oleic Acid in Indonesia.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, the Oleic acid market in the Netherlands experienced pronounced price volatility, marked by both sharp increases and subsequent declines. In July, Oleic acid prices rose significantly due to a combination of global supply chain challenges, heightened demand, and increased raw material costs, particularly for palm oil. Reduced vessel traffic, port congestion in Asia, and regional container shortages disrupted shipping schedules, driving up costs.
Additionally, the Netherlands felt the impact of price hikes in major producing regions, with local markets adjusting prices upward in response. Rising procurement activity, both domestically and internationally, alongside low inventories and inflationary pressures in Europe, further intensified price increases. In August, prices continued to rise as export requirements, supply issues in China, and geopolitical tensions added pressure. Middle Eastern instability drove up crude oil prices, increasing overall supply chain expenses, while the depreciating US dollar made imports more costly.
By the end of the quarter, the Oleic acid market in the Netherlands faced a sustained decline in prices. Lower energy costs allowed producers to adopt competitive pricing, and Northern European port congestion led to missed port calls, impacting supply chains. With subdued demand in end-use sectors and accumulating inventory costs, producers and traders strategically offloaded stock to stabilize cash flow, intensifying a supply glut. Additionally, the palm oil market saw a price dip due to weak demand, which contributed to the bearish sentiment, prompting local producers to reduce Oleic acid production to manage the supply-demand imbalance effectively.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, Oleic Acid prices in North America experienced a notable uptrend, driven by a confluence of factors. Supply chain disruptions, geopolitical instability, and fluctuating energy costs have played pivotal roles. Persistent supply bottlenecks, particularly due to drought-induced restrictions on the Panama Canal and reduced vessel traffic, significantly impacted availability. Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and labor disputes at major ports further restricted transportation capacities, exacerbating shipping costs.
In the United States, the market displayed the most substantial price fluctuations, reflecting its dynamic nature. The strong positive pricing environment was influenced by seasonal factors, including an early onset of the peak shipping season. This period of heightened demand coupled with constrained supply led to increased prices, with a marked disparity of 8% between the first and second halves of the quarter, underscoring the intensifying demand.
By the end of Q2, Oleic Acid (Food Grade) CFR Houston prices reached USD 1570/MT, indicating a consistent upward trajectory with a quarterly average increase of 2.05%. This upward trend was further supported by plant shutdowns, including unexpected closures of key refining facilities, which intensified supply shortages. Overall, Q2 2024's pricing environment for Oleic Acid has been strongly positive, influenced by both regional and global market dynamics.
Asia Pacific
In Q2 2024, the Oleic Acid market in the APAC region experienced significant price increases due to a complex interplay of factors. Robust downstream demand outpaced limited supply, creating a pronounced supply-demand imbalance. Elevated energy and freight costs, combined with geopolitical tensions, intensified production expenses. Furthermore, rising input prices and the depreciation of local currencies against the US dollar exerted additional upward pressure on prices. The growing preference for eco-friendly derivatives in the oleochemical sector, as alternatives to petroleum-based products, further fueled demand, contributing to a buoyant pricing environment.
In South Korea, the market saw the most pronounced price fluctuations. Consistent price increases were observed, driven by strong procurement activities, limited inventories, and escalating input costs. Seasonality also played a role, with heightened demand following the Lunar New Year, which exacerbated price volatility. The quarter closed with a 6% price increase compared to the previous quarter, and a 10% rise when comparing the first and second half of the quarter, reflecting a sustained upward trend.
By the end of Q2 2024, the price of Oleic Acid (Food Grade) CFR Busan in South Korea reached USD 1410/MT, indicating a robust pricing environment with an average quarterly increase of 2.95%. Disruptions and plant shutdowns during the quarter likely further constrained supply, reinforcing the overall positive market sentiment in the APAC region.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Oleic Acid market experienced a notable upward trend in pricing, influenced by several key factors. Rising production costs and increased raw material prices, compounded by persistent inflationary pressures, significantly escalated overall product costs. Additionally, logistic disruptions, including a drought at the Panama Canal and transportation issues related to the Houthis' campaign in Gaza, exacerbated supply chain bottlenecks. Delays around Africa's Cape of Good Hope further intensified container shortages, contributing to the escalating prices. The depreciation of the US dollar against the Euro also added to the cost burdens for European importers.
In the Netherlands, which saw the most pronounced price fluctuations, market dynamics were particularly acute. The second quarter recorded a 9% increase in prices between its first and second halves, reflecting a robust demand environment amidst constrained supplies. The upward trend in the Dutch market was more intense than in other regions due to local factors, despite a minimal impact from seasonal variations. Strategic inventory management and sustained procurement interest from downstream industries continued to drive prices higher, with increased consumer activity amplifying the market's positive sentiment.
By the end of Q2 2024, the price for Oleic Acid (Food Grade) CFR Rotterdam reached USD 1550/MT, marking an average quarterly increase of 2.78%. This rise underscores the ongoing trend of a costly pricing environment throughout the period. Overall, the sentiment in the European Oleic Acid market, particularly in the Netherlands, remains positive, driven by sustained demand, complex logistics, and rising cost pressures.
