For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
• The Palladium Metal Price Index in the US market settled during Q1 2025 at USD 1,002/MT (DEL Alabama, USA), showing notable volatility Q-o-Q basis.
• Why did the price of Palladium Metal change in April 2025?
Palladium metal Prices increased marginally in the early week of April, influenced by strengthening demand from automotive and anticipated tariff impacts on imports.
• In January, prices rose 3.8%, driven by stable Palladium Metal Spot Price levels, moderate inventory, and strong demand in the electric vehicle and light truck segments.
• February recorded a 2% decline, attributed to a modest rise in inventory and slowing auto sales—particularly in the passenger car segment.
• March saw a 1% price uptick on the back of rising auto unit sales (+9.1%) and speculation around new tariffs affecting imports.
• The Palladium Metal Production Cost Trend in the U.S. remained sensitive to global supply factors, especially Russia and South Africa, as well as local market conditions.
• The Palladium Metal Demand Outlook in North America remains positive, bolstered by automotive sector resilience and procurement urgency amid regulatory shifts.
• The Palladium Metal Price Forecast suggests continued mild upward pressure in Q2 2025 as the U.S. market adapts to policy and demand-side dynamics.
Europe
• The Palladium Metal Price Index for Europe ended Q1 2025 at USD 1,173/MT (FD Ruhr, Germany), showing a volatile but net positive quarterly performance.
• Why did the price of Palladium Metal change in April 2025?
Palladium metal prices increased slightly in early April, driven by tightening global supply and uncertainty over auto trade tariffs.
• January saw a 3.8% price increase due to moderate inventory and a strong rise in automotive sales (+58.77% MoM in passenger vehicles).
• In February, prices declined 2% as Nornickel’s anticipated production uptick elevated inventory levels; car sales dipped by 6.4%, reflecting EV market expansion.
• March prices grew 1%, influenced by a 5.8% drop in South African production, reinforcing global supply tightness.
• Geopolitical risks, including U.S. tariffs, have affected the Palladium Metal Spot Price and contributed to market uncertainty.
• The Palladium Metal Demand Outlook is mixed, with ICE vehicle demand pressured by growing EV adoption.
• The Palladium Metal Production Cost Trend was affected by refining costs, energy prices, and global supply chain realignments.
• Looking forward, the Palladium Metal Price Forecast reflects short-term volatility with long-term demand risk due to structural shifts toward EVs.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• The Palladium Metal Price Index in APAC closed Q1 2025 at USD 1,064/MT (Ex-Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia), reflecting a quarter of fluctuations amid regional market pressures.
• Why did the price of Palladium Metal change in April 2025?
Prices increased in early April, spurred by rising local vehicle production and global supply concerns.
• January began with a 3.8% increase despite a dramatic 36.1% fall in vehicle registrations, driven by speculative buying post-US Fed interest rate signals.
• February experienced a 2% decline as inventory levels rose and demand from gasoline vehicles remained under pressure; EV and hybrid growth was present but insufficient.
• March posted a 1% price uptick, aided by reduced palladium supply from South Africa and a 23.9% MoM increase in sales from local carmaker Proton.
• The Palladium Metal Spot Price responded to regional supply adjustments and purchasing behavior among industrial consumers.
• The Palladium Metal Production Cost Trend in APAC reflected logistical challenges, energy cost swings, and reliance on imports for refined palladium.
• The Palladium Metal Demand Outlook remains cautious, with future consumption influenced by EV adoption rates and emissions regulation updates.
• The Palladium Metal Price Forecast indicates potential mild gains in Q2 2025, contingent on the automotive recovery and supply-side tightness.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the palladium market in North America experienced notable fluctuations influenced by supply constraints and demand shifts in the automotive and manufacturing sectors. Prices increased by 7% in October due to tight supply and geopolitical tensions surrounding potential sanctions on Russian palladium exports. However, by November, the market stabilized amidst supply fluctuations, despite new export orders decreasing at an accelerated rate due to international demand challenges. Finally, in December, palladium prices fell by 4% as trading activity slowed during the holiday season, and a weaker dollar impacted market sentiment.
Key factors affecting the market included elevated palladium inventories stemming from earlier restocking efforts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Russian supplier Norilsk Nickel, which controls a significant portion of global palladium supply. Despite a marginal uptick in automotive demand—reflected by a 2.8% increase in vehicle sales—the overall palladium demand faced pressures from the rising popularity of electric vehicles (EVs).
The quarter-ending price for Palladium Metal DEL Alabama stood at USD 975/oz. Overall, Q4 pricing trends showed initial increases followed by stabilization and subsequent declines, illustrating the interplay of supply chain dynamics, consumer trends, and geopolitical influences that market participants must navigate.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the palladium market in Europe exhibited significant volatility, driven by a range of economic and geopolitical factors. Prices rose by 7% in October due to tight supply amid potential sanctions on Russian palladium exports, which created uncertainty in market access to this vital resource, particularly from MMC Norilsk Nickel, the largest global producer. However, by November, prices stabilized as the automotive sector maintained its reliance on palladium, though the inventory levels remained slightly elevated due to earlier restocking efforts. The environment turned more challenging in December, with palladium prices falling by 4%, primarily influenced by seasonal trading slowdowns during the holidays and a weakening dollar. Demand from the gasoline-powered vehicle segment remained tepid, as indicated by a 7.1% decline in new passenger car registrations in December, exacerbating concerns over future palladium demand amid the industry's transition to electric vehicles. The quarter-ending price for Palladium Metal FD Ruhr was USD 1,142/oz. Q4 pricing trends reflected a mix of initial increases, stabilization, and eventual declines, illustrating the complexities of supply disruptions, geopolitical uncertainties, and shifting consumer preferences that market participants must navigate moving forward.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the palladium market in the APAC region experienced notable fluctuations, primarily driven by geopolitical factors and shifting demand dynamics, particularly in the automotive sector. Palladium prices surged by 7% in October, fuelled by tight supply amid potential U.S. sanctions against Russian exports, notably from Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest palladium producer. However, the momentum shifted, leading to price stabilization in November due to consistent demand from the automotive industry, despite concerns over electric vehicle (EV) adoption impacting traditional gasoline-powered vehicle sales. By December, palladium prices fell by 4%, influenced by decreased trading activity during the holiday season and a weaker dollar. The Chinese market, fundamental to palladium demand, showed robust performance with nearly 1.27 million new-energy vehicles sold in November, reflecting strong year-on-year growth. Despite this, overall demand for palladium waned as EV sales surged, indicating a critical transition within the automotive sector. The quarter-ending price for Palladium Metal Ex-Shanghai was USD 1,142/oz. Throughout Q4, prices displayed a trend of initial increases followed by stabilization and subsequent declines, illustrating the complexities faced by market participants amid geopolitical uncertainties and evolving demand landscapes.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American palladium market experienced significant volatility in Q3 2024. August saw a sharp 7.8% decrease in spot market prices, while September witnessed a notable surge following the Federal Reserve's unexpected 50 basis point rate cut, which typically supports commodity prices. Supply faced considerable challenges, with North American output projected to be 6% lower and contributing to a 4% decline in global primary production.
The market was further impacted by delays in Russian smelter upgrades and subdued recycling activities despite a projected 3% increase in secondary supply. Demand showed weakness throughout the quarter, with overall global demand forecasted to decrease by 1% to 9.33 million ounces. The automotive sector, a key demand driver, experienced significant decline with new vehicle sales dropping 12.3% in September to 1,172,101 units.
This decline was attributed to fewer selling days and reduced consumer spending amid inflation and rising interest rates. The quarter recorded a slight decrease of 4% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with prices at USD 959/OZ of Palladium Metal DEL Alabama (USD/oz) (USA), reflecting the overall downward trajectory in pricing for the region.
Asia-Pacific
The APAC region experienced mixed trends in the palladium market during Q3 2024. In China, despite sluggish automotive demand, prices rose in August, supported by global supply constraints. The Chinese market saw positive momentum in September, with gasoline car sales increasing by over 100,000 units from August, bolstered by government vehicle trade-in initiatives, despite a weak Manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction.
Malaysia faced more challenging conditions, with palladium prices falling 7.8% in August due to reduced primary production and automotive sector weakness. Proton, the national carmaker, reported mixed sales results, while the manufacturing sector showed continued weakness with flat new order growth and declining production levels. Both markets were influenced by global supply dynamics, including a 4% decrease in primary production due to delays in Russian smelters and reduced North American output.
Overall demand is projected to decline by 1% to 9.33 million ounces, primarily due to the automotive industry's shift toward electric vehicles and rising interest rates. The quarter recorded a slight decrease of 4% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with prices at USD 1084/OZ of Palladium Metal Ex-Shanghai (USD/oz) (China), reflecting the overall downward trajectory in pricing for the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, palladium prices in Europe faced challenges, highlighted by a 7.8% drop in the German spot market during August, largely due to a 4% decrease in primary production from Russia and North America. Despite a projected 3% increase in secondary supply from recycling, demand is forecasted to decline by 1% to 9.33 million ounces, driven by reduced automotive needs as the industry shifts towards electric vehicles and rising interest rates. The US Manufacturing Index also indicated a slowdown, reflecting a broader decline in manufacturing health.
By September, palladium prices surged 8.11%, aided by a Federal Reserve rate cut that weakened the dollar and boosted commodities. However, Germany’s automotive sector reported a 7.0% year-over-year decline in new passenger car registrations, with gasoline vehicle sales dropping significantly.
The region is navigating a complex landscape, with supply shortages due to production challenges in key areas like Russia and South Africa impacting market dynamics. The quarter recorded a slight decrease of 4% from the previous quarter, ending with prices at USD 1123/OZ of Palladium Metal FD Ruhr (USD/oz), reflecting the overall downward trajectory in pricing for the region.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs):
1. What is the current price of Palladium Metal in the US?
• As of Q1 2025; Palladium Metal prices in North America (Alabama, USA): USD 1,002/MT
2. What is the current price of Palladium Metal in Germany?
• As of Q1 2025; Palladium Metal prices in Europe (Ruhr, Germany): USD 1,173/MT
3. What is the current price of Palladium Metal in Malaysia?
• As of Q1 2025; Palladium Metal prices in APAC (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia): USD 1,064/MT
4. What is the Palladium Metal Demand Outlook for Q2 2025?
• Demand is expected to remain firm in North America, volatile in Europe due to EV shifts, and cautiously optimistic in APAC due to local production recovery.
5. What are the major factors influencing the Palladium Metal Production Cost Trend globally?
• Key factors include South African and Russian mining output, energy costs, tariff policies, and automotive sector performance.
