For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the palladium metal market in North America experienced notable volatility, concluding the quarter at USD 1,002/MT for palladium delivered in Alabama, USA. Prices showed a mixed trend compared to Q4 2024, where a general decreasing pattern was observed, but Q1 itself exhibited fluctuations driven by evolving market dynamics.
January saw a rise in palladium prices by 3.8%, supported by moderate inventory levels and increased procurement demand. Consumer confidence was reflected in a year-on-year sales increase in new vehicles despite typical winter seasonality affecting the market. Key drivers included strong electric vehicle sales and a stable demand for palladium in catalytic converters. However, February brought a 2% price decline amid a slight increase in palladium inventory and reduced U.S. auto sales, monitored alongside rising concerns about tariffs on imports. The decline in passenger car sales overshadowed the lingering demand for light trucks, complicating overall market conditions.
In March, prices stabilized with a modest 1% increase, reflecting growing demand linked to anticipated tariffs and an uptick in auto sales. The U.S. automotive sector saw a notable 9.1% growth in unit sales, spurred by consumer urgency. The quarter-ending price for palladium metal highlighting persistent challenges driven by inventory levels, production fluctuations, and evolving tariff uncertainties that continue to shape the North American palladium market landscape.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the palladium metal market in Europe exhibited notable fluctuations, concluding the quarter at USD 1,173/MT for palladium metal FD Ruhr, Germany. Prices reflected a mixed trend compared to Q4 2024, which experienced a downward slope, while Q1 showed volatility amid shifting market dynamics. January began positively with a 3.8% price increase, driven by moderate inventory levels and heightened demand for palladium essential for catalytic converters in gasoline vehicles. Sales in the automotive sector surged, exemplified by a 58.77% month-on-month increase in passenger vehicle registrations and significant growth in two-wheeler and commercial vehicle segments. February saw a price decrease of 2% as palladium inventory levels rose, influenced by expectations of increased production from Nornickel, despite prevailing weak demand from a 6.4% drop in car sales. The shift towards electric vehicles indicated changing consumer preferences and potential challenges for palladium use. In March, prices stabilized with a modest 1% increase, supported by a 5.8% decline in South African palladium production, affecting global supply. However, uncertainty lingered due to the introduction of U.S. auto tariffs impacting export projections. The quarter-ending price for palladium metal underscoring challenges around fluctuating demand, evolving consumer preferences, and geopolitical uncertainties that continue to shape the European palladium market landscape.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the palladium metal market in the APAC region, particularly in Malaysia, exhibited significant price volatility, closing the quarter at USD 1,064/MT for palladium metal Ex-Kuala Lumpur. Prices showed a mixed trend compared to Q4 2024, which had seen a downward pattern, while Q1 demonstrated fluctuating movements influenced by various market dynamics. January began with a 3.8% price increase, driven by moderate inventory levels and increased procurement demand amid uncertainties following the US Fed's interest meeting. However, this initial growth came despite a substantial 36.1% drop in vehicle registrations, emphasizing the challenging landscape for palladium primarily used in catalytic converters for gasoline vehicles. In February, palladium prices decreased by 2%, as inventory levels slightly increased and vehicle registrations continued to struggle. Although hybrid and electric vehicle registrations showed year-on-year growth, the overall demand remained subdued. March saw a stabilization of prices, reflecting a 1% uptick due to declining supply from South Africa and a notable increase in vehicle sales from local manufacturers like Proton, which reported a 23.9% rise month-on-month. The quarter-ending price for palladium metal with market participants facing challenges such as fluctuating demand, regulatory uncertainties on vehicle emissions, and shifts in consumer preferences towards electric vehicles, which could influence future palladium consumption.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the palladium market in North America experienced notable fluctuations influenced by supply constraints and demand shifts in the automotive and manufacturing sectors. Prices increased by 7% in October due to tight supply and geopolitical tensions surrounding potential sanctions on Russian palladium exports. However, by November, the market stabilized amidst supply fluctuations, despite new export orders decreasing at an accelerated rate due to international demand challenges. Finally, in December, palladium prices fell by 4% as trading activity slowed during the holiday season, and a weaker dollar impacted market sentiment.
Key factors affecting the market included elevated palladium inventories stemming from earlier restocking efforts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Russian supplier Norilsk Nickel, which controls a significant portion of global palladium supply. Despite a marginal uptick in automotive demand—reflected by a 2.8% increase in vehicle sales—the overall palladium demand faced pressures from the rising popularity of electric vehicles (EVs).
The quarter-ending price for Palladium Metal DEL Alabama stood at USD 975/oz. Overall, Q4 pricing trends showed initial increases followed by stabilization and subsequent declines, illustrating the interplay of supply chain dynamics, consumer trends, and geopolitical influences that market participants must navigate.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the palladium market in Europe exhibited significant volatility, driven by a range of economic and geopolitical factors. Prices rose by 7% in October due to tight supply amid potential sanctions on Russian palladium exports, which created uncertainty in market access to this vital resource, particularly from MMC Norilsk Nickel, the largest global producer. However, by November, prices stabilized as the automotive sector maintained its reliance on palladium, though the inventory levels remained slightly elevated due to earlier restocking efforts. The environment turned more challenging in December, with palladium prices falling by 4%, primarily influenced by seasonal trading slowdowns during the holidays and a weakening dollar. Demand from the gasoline-powered vehicle segment remained tepid, as indicated by a 7.1% decline in new passenger car registrations in December, exacerbating concerns over future palladium demand amid the industry's transition to electric vehicles. The quarter-ending price for Palladium Metal FD Ruhr was USD 1,142/oz. Q4 pricing trends reflected a mix of initial increases, stabilization, and eventual declines, illustrating the complexities of supply disruptions, geopolitical uncertainties, and shifting consumer preferences that market participants must navigate moving forward.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the palladium market in the APAC region experienced notable fluctuations, primarily driven by geopolitical factors and shifting demand dynamics, particularly in the automotive sector. Palladium prices surged by 7% in October, fuelled by tight supply amid potential U.S. sanctions against Russian exports, notably from Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest palladium producer. However, the momentum shifted, leading to price stabilization in November due to consistent demand from the automotive industry, despite concerns over electric vehicle (EV) adoption impacting traditional gasoline-powered vehicle sales. By December, palladium prices fell by 4%, influenced by decreased trading activity during the holiday season and a weaker dollar. The Chinese market, fundamental to palladium demand, showed robust performance with nearly 1.27 million new-energy vehicles sold in November, reflecting strong year-on-year growth. Despite this, overall demand for palladium waned as EV sales surged, indicating a critical transition within the automotive sector. The quarter-ending price for Palladium Metal Ex-Shanghai was USD 1,142/oz. Throughout Q4, prices displayed a trend of initial increases followed by stabilization and subsequent declines, illustrating the complexities faced by market participants amid geopolitical uncertainties and evolving demand landscapes.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American palladium market experienced significant volatility in Q3 2024. August saw a sharp 7.8% decrease in spot market prices, while September witnessed a notable surge following the Federal Reserve's unexpected 50 basis point rate cut, which typically supports commodity prices. Supply faced considerable challenges, with North American output projected to be 6% lower and contributing to a 4% decline in global primary production.
The market was further impacted by delays in Russian smelter upgrades and subdued recycling activities despite a projected 3% increase in secondary supply. Demand showed weakness throughout the quarter, with overall global demand forecasted to decrease by 1% to 9.33 million ounces. The automotive sector, a key demand driver, experienced significant decline with new vehicle sales dropping 12.3% in September to 1,172,101 units.
This decline was attributed to fewer selling days and reduced consumer spending amid inflation and rising interest rates. The quarter recorded a slight decrease of 4% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with prices at USD 959/OZ of Palladium Metal DEL Alabama (USD/oz) (USA), reflecting the overall downward trajectory in pricing for the region.
Asia-Pacific
The APAC region experienced mixed trends in the palladium market during Q3 2024. In China, despite sluggish automotive demand, prices rose in August, supported by global supply constraints. The Chinese market saw positive momentum in September, with gasoline car sales increasing by over 100,000 units from August, bolstered by government vehicle trade-in initiatives, despite a weak Manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction.
Malaysia faced more challenging conditions, with palladium prices falling 7.8% in August due to reduced primary production and automotive sector weakness. Proton, the national carmaker, reported mixed sales results, while the manufacturing sector showed continued weakness with flat new order growth and declining production levels. Both markets were influenced by global supply dynamics, including a 4% decrease in primary production due to delays in Russian smelters and reduced North American output.
Overall demand is projected to decline by 1% to 9.33 million ounces, primarily due to the automotive industry's shift toward electric vehicles and rising interest rates. The quarter recorded a slight decrease of 4% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with prices at USD 1084/OZ of Palladium Metal Ex-Shanghai (USD/oz) (China), reflecting the overall downward trajectory in pricing for the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, palladium prices in Europe faced challenges, highlighted by a 7.8% drop in the German spot market during August, largely due to a 4% decrease in primary production from Russia and North America. Despite a projected 3% increase in secondary supply from recycling, demand is forecasted to decline by 1% to 9.33 million ounces, driven by reduced automotive needs as the industry shifts towards electric vehicles and rising interest rates. The US Manufacturing Index also indicated a slowdown, reflecting a broader decline in manufacturing health.
By September, palladium prices surged 8.11%, aided by a Federal Reserve rate cut that weakened the dollar and boosted commodities. However, Germany’s automotive sector reported a 7.0% year-over-year decline in new passenger car registrations, with gasoline vehicle sales dropping significantly.
The region is navigating a complex landscape, with supply shortages due to production challenges in key areas like Russia and South Africa impacting market dynamics. The quarter recorded a slight decrease of 4% from the previous quarter, ending with prices at USD 1123/OZ of Palladium Metal FD Ruhr (USD/oz), reflecting the overall downward trajectory in pricing for the region.
